Offseason rumors

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jon abbey

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Figured it would be good to have a spot to post Red Sox offseason rumors.

Trade for Corbin Burnes rumor:
https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/red-sox-hinted-as-possible-landing-spot-for-disgruntled-star-on-trade-block-pat3
A bit of a pet peeve, but if it's an article like that that is just linking to a different article where the rumor actually originated, please click through and post the earlier piece. It's still generally people making stuff up to fill pages, but at least it's where it originated.

View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10092239-early-corbin-burnes-trade-landing-spots-after-brewers-elimination-in-mlb-playoffs
 

E5 Yaz

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It's not easy a "rumor." It's a BR reporter making up his own trade proposals.
 

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jezza1918

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Sign Ohtani and Yamamoto and I'll gladly pay $68 for a hot dog at Fenway.
Why stop at just signing Ohtani?
View: https://twitter.com/jake_yasi/status/1710023853609553941?s=20

"Forget signing Shohei Ohtani, make him your CBO. First thing he’ll do is sign himself. That makes Yamamoto a lock. Now you got Ohtani, Yamamoto, and a new CBO. If I were the Red Sox I’d get moving on this as soon as possible."

Kidding aside, if this picks up steam I could see myself refreshing this page and twitter to an unhealthy degree.
 

jezza1918

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Would be shades of the 2003/2004 offseason for me.
Yup, I may be off but Im pretty sure I first found out about this place and signed up as a lurker after the Curt S rumors, and Thanksgiving 2003 was like a family middle school dance - the males could legit only talk about the Red Sox.
 

E5 Yaz

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The host mentioned Duran (and others) by name, but in that clip Kennedy only agrees that locking up pre-arb players is important and doesn't name any specific player. Has anyone listened to the entire show to know if Sam named names?
He's quoted in the story as saying so:

“We should be able to determine which players would qualify for longer-term extensions, whether it’s Bello, whether it’s Abreu, whether it’s Duran or Casas. These are really important decisions that our baseball operations people have to make.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/sam-kennedy-red-sox-plan-to-be-aggressive-on-extensions-for-young-core.html
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I love Ohtani... but like Judge last offseason, think he's likely going to be little more than a DH (a very good DH) going forward in order to keep them productive. Is that really worth $40M a year (let's avoid all "not my money/JWH's wallet" arguments here) knowing that the Sox look like they'll have maybe $65M to spend next offseason?

Woodruff's arm also has some red flags too.
 

E5 Yaz

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I love Ohtani... but like Judge last offseason, think he's likely going to be little more than a DH (a very good DH) going forward in order to keep them productive. Is that really worth $40M a year (let's avoid all "not my money/JWH's wallet" arguments here) knowing that the Sox look like they'll have maybe $65M to spend next offseason?
He's going to be DH-only for one year. The expectation is he recovers and becomes DH-P going forward
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He's going to be DH-only for one year. The expectation is he recovers and becomes DH-P going forward
I know... the expectations are also that Judge continues to play the OF. I said before last offseason that he has 3 at the most years out there before he's either told to start learning 1B at the best.
Ohtani very well may starting pitching again in '25 (which doesn't address the biggest issue for the '24 team) but I'd be willing to bet IF he does, it may destroy his ability to not only pitch, but also to hit. Better to pay a $60M DH than to pay $60M to a rehabbing damaged guy not producing at all. But much better to pay $30M to a new starting young pitcher, $22.5M to another new starting pitcher?
 

PedroisGod

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He's going to be DH-only for one year. The expectation is he recovers and becomes DH-P going forward
And if he can't pitch, or is ineffective to the point where it's not worth sending him out there, I don't believe he would remain a DH. I think that given his skill set, he would likely be able to play the outfield, and I could imagine him being pretty good.
 

RedOctober3829

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If you pay Ohtani upwards of $50 million/year, that just hamstrings what else you can do to significantly improve the roster. Don't get me wrong, I would love to add a talent like Ohtani but not at the expense of upgrading the starting rotation. If you're telling me they'll trade for a cost-controlled ace then that's a different story. But, I would rather add for example Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger rather than Ohtani and a lower cost pitcher.
 

BigSoxFan

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If you pay Ohtani upwards of $50 million/year, that just hamstrings what else you can do to significantly improve the roster. Don't get me wrong, I would love to add a talent like Ohtani but not at the expense of upgrading the starting rotation. If you're telling me they'll trade for a cost-controlled ace then that's a different story. But, I would rather add for example Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger rather than Ohtani and a lower cost pitcher.
I dunno. I think you take the generational talent 10 times out of 10 and figure out the rest later. I get the risk concerns but if I have a chance to land this unicorn, I’m doing it.
 

PedroisGod

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If you pay Ohtani upwards of $50 million/year, that just hamstrings what else you can do to significantly improve the roster. Don't get me wrong, I would love to add a talent like Ohtani but not at the expense of upgrading the starting rotation. If you're telling me they'll trade for a cost-controlled ace then that's a different story. But, I would rather add for example Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger rather than Ohtani and a lower cost pitcher.
I get it, but I'm not sure about Snell or Bellinger as being good investments. Snell can easily run a double digit walk rate, and I worry about his ability to keep getting the swing and miss once he ages and his stuff declines. Bellinger had a bounce back year, but isn't far removed from being absolutely unplayable. He struggled against fastballs last year, and a lot of his value comes from his defense. I would hate to end up with Jason Heyward 2.0. I do like Montgomery and think he is pretty safe, and I can see him being a Chris Bassitt type FA.

Of course Ohtani is going to cost a lot, but you know you are getting one of the best hitters in the league. And even if you aren't sure that he'll last as a pitcher for the duration of the deal, I would feel confident in his bat, and think he could possibly play the OF.
 

E5 Yaz

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You don't sign Ohtani and worry about the short-term, particularly the first year of the contract.
 

rodderick

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If you pay Ohtani upwards of $50 million/year, that just hamstrings what else you can do to significantly improve the roster. Don't get me wrong, I would love to add a talent like Ohtani but not at the expense of upgrading the starting rotation. If you're telling me they'll trade for a cost-controlled ace then that's a different story. But, I would rather add for example Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger rather than Ohtani and a lower cost pitcher.
It all hinges on how confident you are that he'll be able to pitch again at something resembling his previous level of performance. If you think he can give you 90% of 2022/2023 pitcher Ohtani for 2025/26/27, you give him 50 million a year and don't even blink. The surplus value alone in that could probably make up for him sucking for half that contract. And then even if he never pitches again you'll have at worst peak David Ortiz production at DH.
 

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I dunno. I think you take the generational talent 10 times out of 10 and figure out the rest later. I get the risk concerns but if I have a chance to land this unicorn, I’m doing it.
Isn't that what the Angels did? It's cool to have a great player to watch every day, but it kind of gets old when the team is under .500 at the end of the season no matter how great he was.
 

E5 Yaz

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It all hinges on how confident you are that he'll be able to pitch again at something resembling his previous level of performance. If you think he can give you 90% of 2022/2023 pitcher Ohtani for 2025/26/27, you give him 50 million a year and don't even blink. The surplus value alone in that could probably make up for him sucking for half that contract. And then even if he never pitches again you'll have at worst peak David Ortiz production at DH.
And that's not even counting the potential off-the-field benefits
 

grimshaw

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Interesting that Abreu is mentioned in that article. It's been tough reading the tea leaves for the outfield situation, but if they are thinking highly enough of him, then someone has to go. I wonder how he'd handle right field if they moved on from Verdugo. He's fine defensively, but they really can't afford to downgrade defense much more. Center seems like a stretch.
 

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Isn't that what the Angels did? It's cool to have a great player to watch every day, but it kind of gets old when the team is under .500 at the end of the season no matter how great he was.
The Angels don’t have our farm system. They also signed Rendon to a $245M contract. The Sox are incredibly well-positioned to take this risk and I’m confident they wouldn’t Angels this.
 

soxhop411

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I don't get antsy until the mystery team gets involved.
If I am ever rich enough to buy a sports team, first order of business is to rename them the "mystery team"

Logo is a Question mark... the Mascot will be a dancing question mark
 

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I don't have any faith that he'll be able to be a two way player for many more years. However, he's obviously a great athlete, and once he isn't pitching, I don't see any reason why he can't be competent in one of the outfield positions. DHing while also pitching makes sense. DHing while not pitching seems unnecessary and somewhat burdensome.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Isn't that what the Angels did? It's cool to have a great player to watch every day, but it kind of gets old when the team is under .500 at the end of the season no matter how great he was.
They had not one, but two generational talents. And still weren’t very good.
 

RedOctober3829

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I get it, but I'm not sure about Snell or Bellinger as being good investments. Snell can easily run a double digit walk rate, and I worry about his ability to keep getting the swing and miss once he ages and his stuff declines. Bellinger had a bounce back year, but isn't far removed from being absolutely unplayable. He struggled against fastballs last year, and a lot of his value comes from his defense. I would hate to end up with Jason Heyward 2.0. I do like Montgomery and think he is pretty safe, and I can see him being a Chris Bassitt type FA.

Of course Ohtani is going to cost a lot, but you know you are getting one of the best hitters in the league. And even if you aren't sure that he'll last as a pitcher for the duration of the deal, I would feel confident in his bat, and think he could possibly play the OF.
I mentioned those guys as an example of spreading that money around to multiple players to fill holes. You can sub in Yamamoto and another impact bat if you want. Red Sox Payroll on Twitter says they're at $192 million including everything. If you add Ohtani at $50 million, the payroll is already at $242. If you're telling me JWH is going to blow way past the luxury tax penalty thresholds, fine go for it. But if the limit is somewhere between $257 and $277 million , putting that much towards Ohtani is going to also limit any other impact additions they could make. They desperately need at least one if not two frontline starters plus an impact RHH bat which is going to cost a lot. Getting Ohtani is great for headlines and off the field revenue while also getting incredible production on it, but at the expense of significant FA upgrades to the rotation? I wouldn't be in favor of it. If JWH is turning into Steve Cohen all of a sudden, different ball game altogether.
 

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Thank you. The inclusion of Duran is the most interesting to me then, as 1. he was on nobody's list of long-term signings in April, so yay, and 2. a lot of us were maybe thinking of him as trade bait. But maybe he is as valuable with a set price for the next few years. It is also interesting that Dugie isn't on that list.
 

joe dokes

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Thank you. The inclusion of Duran is the most interesting to me then, as 1. he was on nobody's list of long-term signings in April, so yay, and 2. a lot of us were maybe thinking of him as trade bait. But maybe he is as valuable with a set price for the next few years. It is also interesting that Dugie isn't on that list.
I think Verdugo is not generally thought of as being part of the "young players to lock up long term." (Even though Duran isn't *that* young) They may be moving on from him, but I dont see this particular comment as reflecting that.
 

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I mentioned those guys as an example of spreading that money around to multiple players to fill holes. You can sub in Yamamoto and another impact bat if you want. Red Sox Payroll on Twitter says they're at $192 million including everything. If you add Ohtani at $50 million, the payroll is already at $242. If you're telling me JWH is going to blow way past the luxury tax penalty thresholds, fine go for it. But if the limit is somewhere between $257 and $277 million , putting that much towards Ohtani is going to also limit any other impact additions they could make. They desperately need at least one if not two frontline starters plus an impact RHH bat which is going to cost a lot. Getting Ohtani is great for headlines and off the field revenue while also getting incredible production on it, but at the expense of significant FA upgrades to the rotation? I wouldn't be in favor of it. If JWH is turning into Steve Cohen all of a sudden, different ball game altogether.
I think signing Ohtani would be done if the owners acknowledge that fan interest is waning and they need to commit to spend more. I'm not convinced ownership would actually do this given what we've seen recently but they clearly have the means. It would be similar to Wyc committing to pay a ton in luxury tax after the Jrue Holiday acquisition. Obviously, the Celtics and Red Sox are in different stages of their championship lifecycle but the Sox have a good enough foundation with more potential cheap high end guys coming soon that you can make an argument that the time is right for a major splash signing, even a semi-redundant one.

From a roster construction standpoint, I think adding 2 top end SP can certainly be argued as being more prudent. If you asked me to choose between Ohtani/cheaper SP options or Yamamoto/Montgomery combo, or something like that, it wouldn't be easy because I like the latter combo too. But I'd still roll the dice with Ohtani.

End of the day, I think it depends on what fans want out of the Red Sox. They've won 4 titles since 2004 so I'm not really title starved. I obviously would love more titles but I also place a lot of value on entertainment. And signing Ohtani is basically the most entertaining thing the team could possibly do. I also think that a smart baseball guy (or gal) could make it work and I don't really have any concerns about this turning into another Angels situation. Sale's money is coming off the books soon and we have some cheap talent coming up. The concerns about defense would be very real but I'll gladly deal with that downside if I get to watch a team with Devers, Ohtani, and Casas slugging in the middle of the order.
 

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Thank you. The inclusion of Duran is the most interesting to me then, as 1. he was on nobody's list of long-term signings in April, so yay, and 2. a lot of us were maybe thinking of him as trade bait. But maybe he is as valuable with a set price for the next few years. It is also interesting that Dugie isn't on that list.
There is no reason not to talk up Duran and how valuable he is at this point.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Even more effective in jacking up the price for the Dodgers than a "mystery team" would be a "well-known team on the East Coast with impatient ownership." I'll believe he has an interest in Boston when they introduce him wearing a Sox jersey.
Yup. You'd think we'd be used to this by now. Every free agent with good representation is going to want to be linked to the Sox as much as to the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, etc. Any team with a propensity to spend big or a consistently high payroll is going to be used for leverage (through media or otherwise) more often than they're going to be seriously in on a given player.
 

BigJimEd

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He's quoted in the story as saying so:

“We should be able to determine which players would qualify for longer-term extensions, whether it’s Bello, whether it’s Abreu, whether it’s Duran or Casas. These are really important decisions that our baseball operations people have to make.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/sam-kennedy-red-sox-plan-to-be-aggressive-on-extensions-for-young-core.html
Right. Kennedy isn't saying they need to sign all of those guys long term. He's saying it's important baseball ops identifies the correct players that they should offer deals to.
 
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