Sure, fair. Not a ton of those would qualify as industry sources, though, and of course some of them would have opinions that are reflexive, influenced by the broader reporting (that the Red Sox are cheap now) than direct knowledge of the negotiations.
Well, no. All of them, maybe aside from Montgomery's friends or family (which I doubt Cotillo or Speier contacted) WOULD be considered credible industry sources. By the very definition, they're in the industry of Major League Baseball and they are a source. What you're confusing them with are sources "who have direct knowledge of the negotiations" and are often described as such. And you sorta know who that is by the way that they discuss how the negotiations are going, right? if "the club is happy with the way negotiations are progressing said a source close to the negotiations" you know it's someone from the club who has leaked that to the writer. When it's the opposite take, it's the agent or one of his staff.
But to get back to industry sources, in the myriad of sources that I listed that these writers could reach out to; why wouldn't any of them be an industry source? How do you define industry source?
This is the scenario I imagine. Scott Boras has two top-of-the-market starters. He sees a restive Boston fan base and a brand new CBO, whose implicit mandate is to
not do what his predecessor did (not sign premium starting pitching, for one thing). He also sees the comments at Breslow's hiring, the full throttle thing, but also Warner's comment about "having no built-in restrictions."
The only thing I'm speculating is that Boras is pouring a little salt into that. He knows they were booed last Winter Weekend. There's no doubt in my mind that he (or someone on his behalf) would talk to the local press corps and say
it doesn't sound like the Red Sox are going to do what it takes to acquire top of the market players. Does that seem far-fetched?
It's not. Boras is absolutely known for rousing teams' local media to pay up for his clients.
Here's a story about how he went on a Chicago radio station this winter to put the screws to the Cubs front office. They've been calling the GM "Hibernation Hoyer" in Chicago, at least until the Imanaga signing.
I don't disagree with that scenario. In fact I'd say it's lesson number one in the Scott Boras Playbook.
Look at it the other way. Do you think the throughline of Cotillo and McAdam's reporting this offseason could be credible without sources from either the Red Sox front office or Boras Corp?
Absolutely. These guys chatter and gossip more than my 13-year-old daughter and her friends. And they (MLB sources) all have big mouths. When a reporter calls about something to comment on, ESPECIALLY something that they're not intimately involved in, they will talk all day. From there, it's a good reporter's job to double-check that the first source isn't making shit up or is doing a hatchet job. That usually means trying to talk to someone closer to the issue or, failing that, someone who might be a bit more plugged in than the first person. Do all reporters do this? Of course not. But Speier, Abraham, McAdams and most of the other Sox beat writers are really good at what they do. I don't know a ton about Cotillo but the stuff that he's been reporting on all fall has come to pass in January (so far)--in so much as he said that the Sox aren't spending which Kennedy confirmed that last week.
I'm not sure what you mean by conspiracy here. I'm not sure we have a ton of hard evidence as much as we do affective evidence. A lot of people are angry, that's 100 percent true.
In the last four plus off seasons, have the Sox sunk big money into a long-term contract for any big free agent? The answer is no. Story was a "gift" in that the shortstop musical chairs stopped and he was without a team, considered damaged goods (rightly, BTW) and signed a (for him) below market deal. If I'm feeling charitable, Yoshida might be considered a big free agent; but I don't think he fits into that mold either. Jansen signed a two-year deal and he's at the back end of his career anyway.
Righlty or wrongly, the Sox have clearly made a philiosphical move away from signing big name free agents. That's hard evidence here. Four off seasons over two different FO regimes, the only thing that is similar is the ownership. Last year (and previous years) you could say, "Well, maybe Bloom doesn't like spending dough or tying up his salary to big time free agents" but this year, despite what one of the owners loudly proclaimed, the Sox aren't signing anyone to market value contracts. And that's apparently coming from the ownership.
I'm not sure how this is even remotely debatable.
Masslive's done a good job of generating discussion, starting with that McAdam Christmas Eve op-ed that prompted its own thread on this board. That was right after the Yamamoto sweepstakes concluded, and a lot of people sure were disappointed! McAdam gave us this:
See how McAdam massages "one industry official's" opinion into fact? And then speculates that there's pressure and organizational strife between Werner, Henry, and Breslow? I'm not sure who that official is, but McAdam's argument here is purely rhetorical. And it got translated onto this board as "Full-throttle may be business as usual."
But that's been proven correct, has it not? Breslow said that he was mislead (my words not his) that the Sox were going to have a higher budget when he was hired. Werner has to issue some cockamamie apology, two plus months after what he said about "full throttle" wasn't exactly what he meant. He actually meant the opposite but he forget to let everyone know that it was opposite day. If he didn't mean it, why didn't he issue the correction the day after? Since Breslow and Werner are the ones (the only ones from ownership/FO) that made these statements and John Henry did not, isn't it safe to assume that Henry called both of them into his office, told Breslow that his budget has been slashed and for Werner to make a correction on his full throttle quote?
And I believe that you're conflating the point of what McAdam wrote to how it was taken here. That's not McAdam's concern. He reported what the industry official said, and offered greater context. That's McAdam's job, otherwise he's a stenographer.
Since then, they continue to "read between the lines" (Cotillo) that the Sox are cutting payroll because they traded three players on bulky salaries with one year left on their contracts (two years in Urias's case). They've found it impossible to cover these as good baseball trades; they're simply cost-cutting measures. Breslow says
this on January 18th...
“I would hate to think that in some way, there’s a perception that the last two months are indicative or predictive of how we intend to operate going forward."
...and no one remembers it.
No one remembers it because it's all empty rhetoric until the Sox do something that isn't cutting salary. The Sale for Vaughn deal could go down as an all timer. Sale could bust his leg learning how to surf and Vaughn could turn into an All-Star second baseman for the next decade. But it also could go bad, or it could just be a meh trade (like most trades are). The Sox traded Verdugo for a bunch of minor league guys. The O'Neill trade could be good too. I am in favor in all of those trade BTW, it showed me more imagination in Breslow than Bloom ever had. If he's going to slash and burn, just do it and make sure you're getting some upside. All trades are gambles of course, but these transactions are big ones, I think.
But at the same time, other than Giolito, they haven't signed anyone of importance. Their rotation is still lousy but they won't sign one (or both) of the two guys left that could help them out immensely. Why? I don't know. But using the way that the Sox have operated for the last four years, I suspect it has something to do with money and not spending any of it.
I have no idea if the Sox will sign Jordan Montgomery. I think there's enough smoke at this point to assume that they're legitimately interested. If I'm Craig Breslow, I'm wondering whether Chris Young decides it's better to sign Clayton Kershaw — who will pretty much only play for the Dodgers or Rangers — for like 1/$15 to join the rotation midsummer rather than add another huge contract.
I think the story is a whole lot more boring than what we've been given. The Red Sox lost Yamamoto to L.A. for reasons mostly out of their control. They for various reasons declined to dramatically outbid the winning teams for Nola, Gray, E-Rod and Imanaga, and all the while have been legitimately interested in Montgomery, a guy with an agent known for
But if the Sox don't sign Montgomery, their basic thesis is true. The Sox aren't just not spending, they're conspiratorially not spending, secretly, by decree, which will remain true until John Henry shows us the team's official budget. If they do land Montgomery or Snell, or add someone else substantial, it'll be widely considered a reaction, a response to the public pressure.
The Sox are interested in Montgomery like I'm interested in a Lamborgheni. Do I want one? Fuck yeah I do! But do I want to spend $70,000+ on a car that I can probably drive around for two months and have to store in a garage for the other ten? No. Unless I can get it for $1000 or something. That's how the Sox are looking at Montgomery and Snell. I don't think that their prices are going to drop enough for the Interest Kings to jump in and make a bid.
Dude c'mon, there is no mystery reason why the Sox declined to dramatically outbid the winning teams for those pitchers you listed: they didn't want to pony up the money. I know that it sucks to hear this but it's true. The Sox have decided that they'd rather be a mid-market team with a mid-market payroll and use Fenway Park as the reason why you should watch the Sox. For years it was the team AND the park, now it's just the latter. Werner said as much himself last week. They are literally telling you what they are, but you don't want to hear it. And that's cool, it's a shitty message to hear and I, for one, feel really ripped off.
But I love the Sox so what am I going to do? John Henry (and all of the owners of every pro sport) know this too and they exploit our love for our teams. Every. Fucking. Day. Some don't (Henry didn't for awhile) but they all revert back to who they are, which are people who don't love their teams, they just love money.
