Arietta, Moustakas, Hosmer, JD Martinez. That's a boatload of money for 1.5 good players.
Offseason rumors
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Boras has also done some pillow contracts — IIRC, he negotiated Beltré to Boston, right? I wonder if Bellinger could be a candidate for such a deal if we can sell high on Duran in a trade for a pitcher. (Can we? I'm not sure.)
(Before everyone jumps in, let's please bracket the payroll questions for a moment.)
He got the QO, I believe, so it's a weird fit in some ways; but that is also the reason he might accept something like this. Let's imagine a deal that is something like 1/$15m, with an opt-out/team option for 3/$85m and a $5m buyout if the option isn't picked up by the team, but nothing if Bellinger opts out. So the deal is 1/$15 if Bellinger chooses to leave after one year, 1/$20m if the team chooses not to ask him back after one, and 4/$100 if he sticks around.
Bellinger has a weird situation, in that he was the NL MVP, but then hurt his shoulder and sucked out loud for two-ish seasons before being non-tendered. Plus he has a QO. The small guarantee gives him the opportunity to hit FA again *without* the QO after another season in a hitter's park, which — if he plays well — would quell any lingering concerns about his shoulder.
Then you deal Duran+ for one of the Mariners' or Marlins' starters and considerably improve the lineup.
RF O'Neill R
DH Yoshida L
3B Devers L
SS Story R
CF Bellinger L
2B Grissom R
1B Casas L
C Wong R
LF Abreu L
I dunno. Just thinking out loud.
I can’t imagine the team would want to give up a draft pick for one year of a player given where they are at; it’s not like Bellinger (or whomever) changes their outlook that much. Ultimately, if any of these guys wants a pillow contract, doubt BOS is the best option either.
I don’t think Bellinger does a pillow contract with Boston. Tons of better options. I’m also a little leery of some of his advanced metrics. His EV was below league average as was his hard hit %. But his K rate was very good. This is where scouting is so valuable because I have no idea how to value a guy with his weird profile. I definitely wouldn’t sign him up to a 6-7 year mega deal.
Jensen trade rumors floating around again (like a turd in a toilet) by Rosenthal. Mentions the Royals this time. Sox would have to eat about half the remaining salary.
Just to restate my own feelings on this: As currently constructed, I think the Sox are very borderline playoff contenders and that is WITH Jensen, assuming they don't do anything else.
If they trade him without adding a starter (trade or Montgomery or Snell) better than Houck then I don't understand what they're doing at all (or they're hoping to get 4 good months out of Giolito, Whitlock, etc... and trade them and that is THE PLAN).
IF they add one of those starters then I'm all for dealing Jensen and putting Houck into the closers role and I think that's an 88-92 win team.
But back to Jensen to KC, assuming 1/2 salary eaten by the Sox.... I don't know anyone on their team other than Witt Jr. So who would be a good trade? I'd hope for two things- a good AA/AAA pitching prospect in return along with someone that has options that can be a good LH bullpen piece.
Just to restate my own feelings on this: As currently constructed, I think the Sox are very borderline playoff contenders and that is WITH Jensen, assuming they don't do anything else.
If they trade him without adding a starter (trade or Montgomery or Snell) better than Houck then I don't understand what they're doing at all (or they're hoping to get 4 good months out of Giolito, Whitlock, etc... and trade them and that is THE PLAN).
IF they add one of those starters then I'm all for dealing Jensen and putting Houck into the closers role and I think that's an 88-92 win team.
But back to Jensen to KC, assuming 1/2 salary eaten by the Sox.... I don't know anyone on their team other than Witt Jr. So who would be a good trade? I'd hope for two things- a good AA/AAA pitching prospect in return along with someone that has options that can be a good LH bullpen piece.
Here is the thing about a possible trade with the Royals - they are pretty bad and really do not have a good path forward. Witt Jr is a stud and probably isn't going anywhere. Outside of that, their starting pitching has more question marks than the Red Sox, and their bullpen is worse as well.
They play in a bad division and still have not sniffed contention. Adding a Jansen or a Martin would be an instant shot in the arm, but it is tough to see either guy being a true difference maker for them.
Outside of that, their farm system is not great either. Makiel Garcia will be good, he made his debut last year and will more than likely be an every day player for them.
If Breslow can take a big swing - the one guy I would like to see come to Boston is Frank Mozzicato. Still a long way away, but that would be a huge coup for the Red Sox.
They play in a bad division and still have not sniffed contention. Adding a Jansen or a Martin would be an instant shot in the arm, but it is tough to see either guy being a true difference maker for them.
Outside of that, their farm system is not great either. Makiel Garcia will be good, he made his debut last year and will more than likely be an every day player for them.
If Breslow can take a big swing - the one guy I would like to see come to Boston is Frank Mozzicato. Still a long way away, but that would be a huge coup for the Red Sox.
BTV, for what it's worth, suggest a rather even trade for Jansen+$8M would be 20 year old LHP Frank Mozzicato. First round draft pick in 2022 (#7), hasn't pitched above A-ball yet. Fangraphs has him as their top pitching and #5 overall prospect with an ETA of 2026.
I can't see the Royals doing that.
Cole Ragans, clearly...
Honestly, I don't see a good match with KCR. Their farm system stinks.
Singer was someone that another poster mentioned recently as a trade target, but he's a good deal more valuable than Jansen, even if the Sox paid Jansen's entire salary.
Maybe a flier on Daniel Lynch could make some sense for both teams. Trading Jansen and eating 3/4 of his salary for Lynch at least checks out on BTV. KC's rotation this year will ostensibly be Ragans, Lugo, Singer and they could always bring back Grienke.
Lynch would be under team control for the next 4 years (through the 2027 season). It seems like he was really hurt by not having the MiLB season in 2020 (or he was always just too advanced for the lower levels coming out of the ACC but couldn't hack it at the higher levels - what do I know) but I can see the appeal of letting Bailey and Breslow work with him - at least at the expense of Jansen.
Though, if it's "just" the Royals and what they can offer, even I'd agree to hang on to Jansen and hope to get more in July.
Arroyo to the Brewers. I liked him - was surprised to see him play poorly last year.
Someone may swoop in a get Belinger like the Red Sox picked up Story.
Someone may swoop in a get Belinger like the Red Sox picked up Story.
Agreed, but the Sox might be thinking, "let's shed some more salary, what do we need Jensen for anyway and get a lottery ticket for our troubles." The prudent thing to do is wait until July to trade him at the deadline, but if they think that they can get more for him now instead of in six months; you probably do it. Jensen won't be returning next year.
If we're dealing with the Royals I'd try to get them to throw in Nate Eaton along with the real return (no idea what that is). He demonstrated all-world defense in RF in 2022 (though he was significantly misused at 3B in the same season) and an average bat before crashing to earth last year. He's got elite speed and arm strength, and they passed him through waivers last spring after an atrocious start, so I'd love to see if we can get him for free and rework him.
They have Wacha too. And Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson. It’s actually a fairly interesting staff. Dumping Jansen seems less about what you get and more about freeing some salary. Although it seems like if they move him that means they will need a SP (moving one of the current starters into the closer role), so not really sure who that could be.
Freeing up salary to do what? They already have enough space this year to do pretty much anything they want, and he’s not signed beyond that.
Dombrowski made him blink on the J.D. Martinez deal. Boras said he was going for 8/$200M, and DD got him to 5/110.
I look forward to hearing that he looks fabulous during Spring Training, seeing that he made the Brewers' Opening Day roster, then checking on him in late June and discovering he'd gone on the IL after three solid weeks and is still rehabbing in AAA.
Yeah, this is true. I admit to being in the camp that I continue to believe if you offered a cost conscious (really cheap) team a fully paid for Jansen and Martin you could probably get something interesting enough (even better if that team could use a fully paid for PIvetta or one of the glut of RF types the Sox have) but like I mentioned, this is the way I want them to trade these guys now. If that is impossible (and it could be) then yes, you hold them until July and hope you can get your own version of the Cole Ragans for Aroldis Chapman deal (or more likely, Ben Brown for David Robertson from two seasons ago).
Oops, I had Wacha in there too, but deleted him by accident, yet your completely right. The sickening thing is, I actually think Boston and KC have pretty close to the same rotation. Ragans and Bello are fairly comparable (I do prefer Bello, but they're close). I have Crawford a bit ahead of Singer, but that is also close enough. Gio and Wacha are a wash. Lugo and Pivetta are essentially a wash. Lynch and Houck (as starters) are essentially a wash. I'm all for dumping Jansen for something worthwhile, turning around a signing "Michael Fulmer" and hoping to dump him for something worthwhile in July.
I just really don't see much "worthwhile" from Kansas City's farm system. Maybe we can offer them Jarren Duran and get Edward Olivares and a guy that in three years will be a decent relief pitcher for at least one season. Gotta make that trade if you can.
The unkillable narrative is that Boras, by himself, just gets teams to pay. By the sheer force of his binders or something. I'm a lawyer. I can tell you, if your client is awesome, the job is easy, and if your client sucks and the other side knows it, you won't win. Boras is a good marketer of his talents, or at least his name, to players. Very good. But in any particular negotiation he has no power beyond what they market and his client's talents provide. Boras will blink as soon as his client tells him to, or as soon as it becomes obvious he has no other choice. The teams really do have the leverage, except when it comes to the truly unique, irreplaceable players. There are always WAY MORE players.
One more piece of the Jansen stuff, wasn't his value tied to freeing up Houck and/or Whitlock to start? Pay him $16m and get one or two arb-level (ish, I know about Whitlock) starters? If the Sox are satisfied that Houck isn't a starter -- and how could they not be, given every action and explanation about the state of the rotation, which never seems to include him anymore -- then Jansen's salary is totally unnecessary? It's not that they just want to be cheap, it's that once they decide Houck can't start, then they have Jansen's replacement just sitting there? Apologies if this was already covered.
As things stand right now, Houck is in the rotation, no? Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck. I don't think they envision Houck as a closer if he's pushed from the rotation. That's a waste of his talent, IMO. He's not someone you want limited to the 9th and occasional 8th inning appearances. He's a guy who should be giving you multiple innings as often as possible. If he's not a starter because he can't get through a lineup three times, that doesn't mean he should be limited to only getting 3 outs at a time.
Jansen at $16M is a luxury the Sox don't necessarily need, but I don't think his heir apparent is Houck. It could just as easily be Winckowski or Schreiber.
This is a replacement-level rumor, but a rumor all the same.
View: https://twitter.com/bnightengale/status/1750609428339134769?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA
Tweet from Bob Nightengale:
The Cubs and Red Sox are two big market teams who have expressed interest in veteran reliever Ryne Stanek.
2:59 pm, 1/25/24
View: https://twitter.com/bnightengale/status/1750609428339134769?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA
Tweet from Bob Nightengale:
The Cubs and Red Sox are two big market teams who have expressed interest in veteran reliever Ryne Stanek.
2:59 pm, 1/25/24
Actually they might be the perfect trade partners. They’ve spent a lot of high draft capital on pitching that just hasn’t panned out. If Breslow and his new analytics team are so good at turning around pitching staffs maybe thats where he can find value. Asa Lacy was the fourth overall pick in the 2020 draft. Big kid that throws hard however between his control problems and injuries he’s now not even a top thirty prospect in their system. He’s the extreme case of similar pitching prospects in their system that have struggled. If ownership isn’t giving the green light to spend these are the type of acquisitions I would like to see being made. Bloom traded for some low/mid tier prospects while he was here however the only pitching prospect I recall being involved in any of his transactions was Groome going to SD.
I certainly understand the sentiment here. The overall pace of the off season is certainly a downer. When you combine that with the front office/media/social media shit show that seems to grow daily and all any of us wants is something that's going to make us feel good or at the very least give us a better idea of what the team's makeup will be as we near spring training. Specific to your suggestion, the problem is that there's not a single thread here that doesn't go off the rails to some extent. Some are worse than others, but I guess that's an unfortunate truth of most discussions.
A bunch of us are at a party and someone asks where Fred is. Yeah where's Fred, it's not like him to miss one of our gatherings. Oh you didn't hear? Fred got in a bad car wreck a couple of days ago. Dude's in rough shape, it was touch and go for a while. It looks like he's going to pull through, but he's pretty fucked up and is going to have a lot of long lasting issues. Jesus, that's awful. I really like Fred and his wife Susan. Yeah, I like Susan too. Such a sweetheart, they make a great couple. Yeah, but that sister of her's is a trip. Oh you mean Liz? Don't get me started on her. She started acting really strange a couple of years ago. You noticed it too? I thought it was just me, but ever since she got divorced from Charlie she's just been attracted an endless parade of losers. Lord knows what that girl's up to, but she looks like Hell. Yes and her parents are just sick over all of it. Good folks her parents, didn't Susan and Liz have a brother as well. Oh yeah, Jimmy. He was quite a bit older I think he moved out to California, had a successful limo business. When covid shut down much of the entertainment biz his company went belly up. Shit that's horrible. You think that's bad, did you hear about.....
WHAT ABOUT FRED??? WE WERE TALKING ABOUT FRED!!!
Do the Rangers still have room for Monty?
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1750690531359793299?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1750690531359793299?s=46
I guess I hit the nail on the head. Some people (hmmmmm) never learn to just stfu.
edit: There are some interesting extuating circumstances to this story though but still......
edit edit: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/9b648c065cc728ec2f4c1fec893dfcf2b94477f0
right click and maybe you can get it in English
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Montgomery signing a 4/100mm contract with the Red Sox is absolutely the funniest outcome imaginable given the way this off season has gone. Let us pray.
Either:
1. This means the uncertainty around the Texas cable deal is over and Montgomery is just a matter of time for them OR
2. They have moved on from Montgomery
Take your pick, either is possible.
I’ve been saying 2for a while and this confirms it for me. I still think SF and Boston are the only teams remaining
So what you’re saying is that the Rangers will either sign Montgomery or they won’t sign Montgomery?
They would most likely move Heaney, which probably wouldn’t be much of a challenge. He’s a free agent next year and a decent starting pitcher.
This is a good and very helpful post. Thank you. It does make you wonder about how interested they truly are in Montgomery, though perhaps they would sign him and look to deal one of the others?
What do people think this means for Jensen, who makes $16 million a year? If you were going to trade him I think that means you would have to eat maybe $6 million of his salary.
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Another point is that after signing Robertson the Rangers are about 4.5 million over the first tax threshold (per Cot's) and they paid tax for 2023. So Montgomery's actual cost would be magnified by the tax.
Again, Scherzer is a free agent after this season. As is Heaney
They could dump Henley tomorrow for his full salary. He’s a decent pitcher on a one year deal.
The only pitcher listed there which is locked in long term is DeGrom.
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Yeah, I don't think any of those pitchers or the tax necessarily preclude Texas from signing Montgomery.
Hopefully we know within the next couple of days, though. It seems like shoes are beginning to drop the last couple days.
Hopefully we know within the next couple of days, though. It seems like shoes are beginning to drop the last couple days.
Just for the record, they also signed Tyler Mahle to a 2 yr, $22m / $11m deal as well. He's expected to be back some time in the 2nd half of the season. (https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rangers-sign-tyler-mahle-right-handed-pitcher-could-join-rotation-for-world-series-champs-in-second-half/).
I personally think that has no bearing on Montgomery signing with the Sox (they're not signing him) but just wanted to add this for the outline on Texas.
Yeah I've seen Jensen, Jenson, etc. many times lately. He's the most misspelled pitcher we've had since Clay Buckles.
I appreciate these posts about the spellings, b/c at times I think I have missed something and don't know what team is being discussed. CAN there be such a thing as a spelling filter for these names?
Slippy? Slappy? Swensen? Swanson?
Maybe it's on the glove?
Oh yeah, Rawlings. I was WAY off.
For what it's worth, per MLB Deadline News on Twitter.
The #Mariners continue to listen to trade offers on their young starting pitchers and are considering trading a starter and signing free-agent SP Blake Snell, per
@JimBowdenGM
With Buchholz's name the misspellings were more understandable. Jansen's name is actually pretty normal, but there's some sort of linguistic optical illusion in play.
The Miami Marlins are not signing Blake Snell.
I think the Snell and Montgomery markets just aren’t what we thought they’d be. There are an only so many teams even in the conversation. Agents want and need the pool to expand. But Miami Marlins? Come on.
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