I’d be more excited by potential trade scenarios than what’s out there on the FA market. Yamamoto is enticing but beyond that, I feel like shelling out big bucks for the available options would be paying premium prices in kind of a weak class. I’d love to have someone like Montgomery, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not what I’d call a game changer. More of a supplementary piece to complement a big ticket addition and I think we have the prospect capital to make that addition through trade.
Agree here. Sox really need a young ace and that guy seems like it’s Yamamoto. After that, there’s older guys who have been up and down.
Why doesn't Hernandez make sense for us? Power hitting right handed bat, corner outfielder. Seems like it fills a need quite well.
Maybe, but if you have Teoscar/Yoshida handling LF/DH, that definitely does not leave room for Turner and maybe Duvall as CF/RF is tough with a subpar LF already in place.
Can someone help me understand the Montgomery love? MLBTR predicts 6/$150M for both Montgomery and Nola. If I'm picking one, I'm taking Nola every time. They've both been durable but Nola even more so. Both limit walks, but Nola misses bats at a much higher level. And it's not like Nola has relies heavily on elite fastball velocity either. His average velo has remained pretty steady year over year.
If the cost was the same on all 3? Teoscar ez.
Red Sox: we have more money and for the amount of money we give you, all of your friends and family can come visit you when you want AND it’s not like you’re flying back to Japan every weekend so the six hours closer to home is only really important twice a year.
I agree with you. I like Montgomery, but I honestly think he is a bad fit for a team that is not one or two players away from having what I would consider a "good" defense. Part of the reason he was so good for Texas was because he could pitch into their defense, and his BABIP after the trade was 11 points better than it was in St Louis, which helped him to turn into the pitcher he was for Texas. Only Pivetta and Crawford had better BABIP's on the Red Sox (which, sadly, makes me nervous about Pivetta going into 2024), and while I think Montgomery would be fine, I hope people expect closer to the High 2/Low 1, than the absolute stud that Texas had.
Had the same thought. Coming off a down year but a solid track record and no pick attached. Given the left handed nature of our lineup, he seems like a great fit
I mean...yes that's technically true, but the "decline" is 142 in the Covid season, 132 & 130...& then this past season when he couldn't hit in Seattle & struggled there, but was excellent on the road.
Yes, but so would Teoscar. & half his games on the road, where he was a much, much better hitter than Duvall.
Statcast may have Fenway suppressing his HR, but I’ve seen the dude play in Fenway plenty, and he was an unholy terror. 950 career OPS in almost 200 PA in Fenway. He has hit more HR (14! Or one every 13.5 PA, which is ~48 in 650 PA.) in Fenway than in any park other than Rogers and Safeco, both of which were his home parks.
Part of the reason the projected salaries for Montgomery & Nola are similar probably relates to the fact that the Phillies QO'd Nola & the Rangers weren't able to QO Montgomery because he was acquired mid-season.
That needs to include the loss of draftwide financial flexibility tied to the pick too, harder to overpay lower round picks if you want to.
Apparently around $6m of surplus value as of '19, plus around $2m of slot value.
ya like I said it’s just hearsay but this person would know and I was told that he’s difficult to pin down. Not in an asshole malcontent way but in an impulsive “dont worry it’ll be fine” way.
Not sure I agree with some of this. Tanaka averaged 167 IP his first 6 years and had several good seasons. He had the partial tear in the elbow ligament but was able to pitch through it. Give me the elite Japanese SP who’s 25 every day of the week over the 30 year-old non-elite guy like Nola or Montgomery. I acknowledge that Yamamoto would likely be more expensive but he also has more upside.
FWIW I have a good friend who runs on field promotions for the Padres (our boys play HS ball together). Been there for 15+ years. In the clubhouse a lot. This is his take as well.
So you're telling me there's a chance...
In a lot of ways, this is where I am too regarding TH. On paper he seems like such a great fit. RHH power bat that plays a corner OF position. The market is the big concern for him, at least in my opinion.
How is Turner really in decline at the plate? He played through an injury for the last month of the season. Through August 31 he was .287/.488/.845. His career numbers are .288/.465/.829. You can make whatever argument you'd like if he's a fit for the team, but there was no evidence of an offensive decline in '23 when he was healthy.
"When healthy" is an awfully big qualifier for a 39 year old. Obviously he's not the hitter he was in '17 & '18 when he was a 150+ wRC+ guy. In '19 & '20 he was in the 130s. In '21 & '22 he was in the 120s & last year he was 115. He also battled through injuries in several of those other years.
Two Japanese guys from a decade ago have nothing to do with Yamamoto in terms of his individual arm health. If you are saying he won't be durable, maybe, but not because he's Japanese. I strongly suspect that a couple decades of guys coming over has made teams a lot more sophisticated about the transition, and that he's almost certainly been grooming himself for MLB for several years. If you want to compare him to other skinny 5'10" guys, regardless of nationality, that might be a bit more on point. The different balls might lead to different pitch movement, but injury? Not sure why that would be the case.
I generally agree with your argument, but I also believe starting pitchers only pitch once a week in Japan. So it's not Japanese starters per se, but rather NPB starters' schedules. Here's a good BR article I found. https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/1975617-do-professional-asian-pitchers-go-through-the-same-mlb-learning-curve.amp.html
But 22 million a year doesn't get you that much. You are looking at 2.8 WAR player on the open market over a three year contract. If you think Cody would produce 30 WAR over those 12 year it would be not a bad contract. I wouldn't do that contract but I don't think it is insane anymore.
The schedule is definitely an adjustment, but it's a similar adjustment to the one Minor League pitchers make. In the Red Sox org, they pitch once a week through AA (off every Monday & 6-man rotation) then usually about every 6 days in AAA (off every Monday & 5-man rotation).
Thanks, I was looking for something like that, but even this article is 9 years old. Surely there have been some changes to how the very top guys prepare? The once a week thing is still happening though, I believe.
I was thinking the same thing. We already lit a pile of money on fire for story, and he should be back to full strength. We will see if Mayer and Yorke can play SS/2nd this year.
These Boras press conferences are such empty calories, but writers like Pete Abe can't quit them. It's like political writers covering CPAC. Never any news, just pure infotainment.
While obviously correct (infotainment), I'd rather get this kind of update and corroboration as opposed to reading multiple "Red Sox feel confident with what they have" updates. If nothing else it shows a greater understanding of the landscape of what is in the organization, what is in the organizations of the rest of the AL contenders, and understanding that what is here simply isn't close to good enough - and isn't only a couple of short term reclamation projects and mixing and matching away from being good enough.
I feel like the Sox know what we want to hear and are never ever going to tell us something unpopular. Thankfully, the reality of the team's situation lines up well with an aggressive strategy, so I wouldn't read anything untoward into these signals. But I personally prefer to tune them out until, as you wisely note, something actually happens.
Key phrase may have been ‘right now’ though. Maybe it’s something they address as part of a larger trade, or are deprioritizing while they focus on the SPs and/or rh power.
