There is a difference between 'ever' and the year after you signed the "Premier" Japanese player on the market to your team.You can’t ever trade a Japanese player? Til death do us part, huh? Or at least until the contract runs out?
There is a difference between 'ever' and the year after you signed the "Premier" Japanese player on the market to your team.You can’t ever trade a Japanese player? Til death do us part, huh? Or at least until the contract runs out?
I don’t think that’s the pointYou can’t ever trade a Japanese player? Til death do us part, huh? Or at least until the contract runs out?
I believe it's only an option in the somewhat bored minds of some Soshers, who are trying to play GM. Or Whatever Breslow's title is.If part of the reason Yamamoto picks the Sox is because of Masa and then they trade him it’ll be a horrible mistake politically. I can’t believe it’s even an option
Soto actually can play RF. His defensive woes are more effort than talent. He has an above average arm and gets a good break on balls. He doesn't follow through some times in effort in his routes. He would be more effective in Fenway LF but has the arm and the ability to play RF.Any trade for Soto requires moving on from Yoshida, either in the Soto deal or separate deal. No need for two LHH LF/DH on the roster. Yoshida would make sense for the Padres, settling LF for several years. BTV has Yoshida at 0 surplus value. But I think his past season represents his floor, so I see him having upside. Add 3 more WAR total over the next 4 years and his value matches Soto this year. Maybe throw in a lottery ticket prospect to sweeten the deal.
That said, I wouldn’t deal Yoshida until I know if he might be part of the lure of bringing Yamamoto to Boston.
Juan Soto would just be a good fielder if he tried hard is certainly a take...Soto actually can play RF. His defensive woes are more effort than talent. He has an above average arm and gets a good break on balls. He doesn't follow through some times in effort in his routes. He would be more effective in Fenway LF but has the arm and the ability to play RF.
I don't see how Yoshida plays LF in San Diego. That field is massive.
That sounds even more concerning to me.Soto actually can play RF. His defensive woes are more effort than talent. He has an above average arm and gets a good break on balls. He doesn't follow through some times in effort in his routes. He would be more effective in Fenway LF but has the arm and the ability to play RF.
I don't see how Yoshida plays LF in San Diego. That field is massive.
I still think the defense stats on Yoshida are skewed in a way that hurts all Sox LF’ers.The Gleyber talk doesn't make a ton of sense to me. All last year we were hammering this team for it's defense. If we really value defense, Yoshida needs to move to DH. He can fill in occasionally in left but we can't let him be our starting LF. So assuming we spend all our FA dollars on pitching we're talking about something like Duran to LF, C-Note to CF, Abreu in RF.
Duran is a high variance player, and then you'd be leaning on two rookies. A ton of potential upside, but also a really uncomfortable looking floor. If there's an injury you're looking at moving Yoshida back to left, or Refsnyder into a starting role, bringing in another outfielder, etc. Meanwhile, Verdugo has demonstrated a plus glove in right with a reliably average or better bat. Excluding handedness and attitude, this seems like exactly the player this outfield needs.
With Torres, we'd be committing to poor defense in the middle of the IF when we've already got some solid depth pieces with upside, including Urias, C-Note, Valdez, and Reyes. This seems like a group you can mix and match with, and outside of Urias they make veritable pennies. I'd roll with this group rather than bring in a guy that that the Yankees themselves are trying to move on from.
He was average RF two years ago. This isn't a man on the decline.Juan Soto would just be a good fielder if he tried hard is certainly a take...
If it's true, he's pretty clearly the laziest man in baseball. He was in the 3rd percentile in range & 9th percentile in fielding value last year. Yes, he has a decent arm, but he had the 10th worst OAA in baseball this year (ahead of Casas & Hernandez among others). In '22 he was tied for 2nd worst (Schwarber was last each of the last 2 years).
Juan is the closest thing to having a LHH Manny Ramirez in the game today. I am not sure what his view on pregnancy drugs are.That sounds even more concerning to me.
He's certainly not on a decline age-wise (turned 25 last month), & he rakes. But his sprint speed has dropped from 60th percentile in '19 to 37th percentile now. He could just be bulking out of the outfield.He was average RF two years ago. This isn't a man on the decline.
The vast majority of Soto's miscues are on balls hit by left-handed batters, slicing away from him. Oddly, he was +1 against RHB last year (Statcast).He's certainly not on a decline age-wise (turned 25 last month), & he rakes. But his sprint speed has dropped from 60th percentile in '19 to 37th percentile now. He could just be bulking out of the outfield.
OAA already factors in where the player is actually aligned, how hard the balls are hit, & how far from the fielder they are hit. That split seems like SSS noise...for his career Soto is -9 against RHB & -14 against LHB. In 2019, for example, he was -1 against RHB & +8 against LHB. But, yes, the less ground a player has to cover, the less problematic a lack of range is.The vast majority of Soto's miscues are on balls hit by left-handed batters, slicing away from him. Oddly, he was +1 against RHB last year (Statcast).
This is a little counterintuitive to me. Right-handed hitters facing the Padres in PETCO hit line drives and fly balls to left at an average exit velocity of 93.3 mph. Left-handed hitters facing the Padres in PETCO hit line drives and fly balls to left field at an average of 88.6 mph. You'd think that if it was a matter of athleticism, some of the bad defense would show up against right-handed batters, but it doesn't.
Do the Padres position Soto a little closer to center field to account for PETCO's deep power alleys? I don't know. But this data suggests that there could be something kind of atypical about his bad defense, and that playing in front of the Green Monster could really help.
Yeah, for sure. I thought I said that if the Sox sign YY, then a trade of MY is off the table. In fact, I did say that in my follow-up: "IF Yoshida being in Boston is part of what lures Yamamoto to Boston, then no, of course he (edit: he = MY) can’t be traded after a YY signing.There is a difference between 'ever' and the year after you signed the "Premier" Japanese player on the market to your team.
Yellich was actually good last year (4.1 WAR on fangraphs), which means the Brewers will almost certainly do everything that can to trade him. The next 5 years are the 32-37 year old segment of his contract - and they definitely don't want any part of that.On Burnes:
With starting pitching seeming to be incredibly hard to find, Burnes will be expensive to acquire, even with only one more year of control.
Seems like they might want a controllable young pitcher like Houck, Crawford, or Whitlock, plus prospects.
Just throwing this out there: maybe Crawford, Perales (Sox Prospects #7) and Drohan (#13) for one year of Burnes? The MLB trade machine thing says that would be a slight overpay by Boston (because they value Crawford really highly-- 26.7 million in excess value, almost as much as Burnes (32) himself).
The Adames part:
The trade machine does NOT agree that the Brewers would move Adames (12.7) for Fernandez (0.5) or Rogers (1.3). It says they would scoff at moving him for BOTH of those guys.
You could get to a Minor Overpay by Mil. if you added Enmanuel Valdez, David Hamilton and Juan Mata to the deal, along with Fernandez and Rogers, which would clear some space on our 40-man roster, but I don't think the Brewers would want all those guys anyway and could probably get get players they liked better somewhere else.
Adames is a slick fielding SS with power, so they should expect a lot for him. One year of him at around $12 million really isn't a lot for most teams who would be interested in him, so they wouldn't need to discount him as a salary dump. I don't see him being worth what the Red Sox would have to pay to acquire him.
Disagree, they have to pay someone and he is the only one they are paying a eight figure salary to in 2025 as of now.Yellich was actually good last year (4.1 WAR on fangraphs), which means the Brewers will almost certainly do everything that can to trade him.
You mean because of minimum payroll requirements?Disagree, they have to pay someone and he is the only one they are paying a eight figure salary to in 2025 as of now.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N0fXQJkUL2e02XkezJt-64eJv7WB2CAngVKrM_RAHlA/edit#gid=1520401900
Couldn't it be a function of Petco? Or some combination of injuries plus moving to a park with a bigger outfield? If there is some issue covering ground to his right while in LF, the career numbers may not capture the problem since he spent 2020-2022 in the other corner. He had calf and back issues the past two years, which I imagine was a factor.OAA already factors in where the player is actually aligned, how hard the balls are hit, & how far from the fielder they are hit. That split seems like SSS noise...for his career Soto is -9 against RHB & -14 against LHB. In 2019, for example, he was -1 against RHB & +8 against LHB. But, yes, the less ground a player has to cover, the less problematic a lack of range is.
Well, in '22 he was -11 for the Nats prior to the trade. So who knows? Obviously having Soto on your team is an awesome thing. It's just a matter of whether he'll be worth the trade cost for 1 year and then either whatever the dollar figure is on a huge extension or the comp value when he walks away after a year.Couldn't it be a function of Petco? Or some combination of injuries plus moving to a park with a bigger outfield? If there is some issue covering ground to his right while in LF, the career numbers may not capture the problem since he spent 2020-2022 in the other corner. He had calf and back issues the past two years, which I imagine was a factor.
My broader point is that his bat and age are so plus that his defense doesn’t matter. And it’s no sure thing he can’t improve (again). He went from a +4 OAA 22-year-old outfielder in 2021 to a negative-16, 23-year-old one the next year.
To me it seems like acquiring Manny again, but a left-handed version four years younger.
I don't think there is an actual team minimum, but even OAK had a $56M payroll this year.You mean because of minimum payroll requirements?
The Dodgers, Rangers and Boston Red Sox all are expected to be in the Ohtani sweepstakes, according to sources. And though the industry's overwhelming expectation is that he winds up with the Dodgers, that line of thinking is perhaps presumptive. The Dodgers do have advantages: financial, geographical, on-field success. They also have a history of signing large deals -- on their terms. And with Ohtani coming off an elbow-ligament surgery in October that will keep him from pitching in 2024 -- raising a legitimate question about what his future pitching looks like -- the prospect of plopping down a half-billion guaranteed goes against how they traditionally operate.
The market for him is sizzling as he awaits his official posting. (It is expected to happen this week, sources tell ESPN.) Just how high Yamamoto's number goes is unclear, but rare is the player similarly beloved by teams' evaluators and computer models. With those sorts, it tends to start at $200 million and work up. The two biggest pitching contracts ever belong to Gerrit Cole (eight years, $324 million) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245 million). The former has been a rousing success, the latter an unmitigated disaster.
With the trajectory of the bidding and the teams involved -- the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, perhaps San Francisco and Toronto as well -- Yamamoto could find himself in their company, and the separator could be which team is willing to offer him big money and an opt-out clause to further leverage his age.
Now here are the best free agent starters after Yamamoto, tiered accordingly:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38863760/mlb-offseason-2023-24-passan-predictions-preview-shohei-ohtani-juan-soto
- Alex Verdugo and Gleyber Torres: Do not believe the rumored Verdugo-for-Gleyber Torres nonsense. Even if the fits match, the likelihood of the Red Sox and Yankees pulling off a deal of substance is minuscule. That said, the industry believes Boston wants to move Verdugo, while a Torres trade doesn't align with New York's desire to improve its offense, he's a year from free agency and slated to make upward of $15 million in arbitration when the Yankees have Oswald Peraza champing at the bit for at-bats.
No, but there are now a lot more players at the top of the market than there were even five years ago so the offer spreads are probably narrower.That's great and all but do guys really take less to play elsewhere because of stuff like this?
This is heresay but no, I think the idea is that you can't just jerk around players of a certain stature, who left Japan and made the effort to join your club across the globe. Or you can! But don't complain if the next guy would rather play somewhere else.You can’t ever trade a Japanese player? Til death do us part, huh? Or at least until the contract runs out?
I don’t know. It’s kind of trashy for a GM to play pundit like that. In a market like NY (or Boston or Philly), you deal with so much BS, that I bet it’s really important emotionally to feel like folks inside the organization have your back.Stanton doesn’t give a shit. This is crap people try to light a fire under to get eyeballs.
Maybe they've tried to do that in-house and Cashman thinks that by publicly shaming Stanton, that Stanton will take off-season conditioning seriously?I don’t know. It’s kind of trashy for a GM to play pundit like that. In a market like NY (or Boston or Philly), you deal with so much BS, that I bet it’s really important emotionally to feel like folks inside the organization have your back.
In response to that sort of question, I’d like to hear a GM-type say something like, “It’s true. Stanton has been held back from his past elite production by health issues. This is why we’re taking X steps to help him regain his past level of play…”
In other words, take the responsibility onto the org, not the player.
This. Cashman is a smart guy who has been doing the job for a long time. He's not some neophyte who needs to be coached on what to say in public. If he put this out there, he did it for a reason.Maybe they've tried to do that in-house and Cashman thinks that by publicly shaming Stanton, that Stanton will take off-season conditioning seriously?
IDK. I mean, it's not a great look but if I'm the Yankees I'm kinda at the end of my rope with this guy. He's a huge chunk of their budget and a big spot in their lineup.
https://theathletic.com/5042054/2023/11/07/yankees-gm-brian-cashman-rant-analytics/From all directions, Cashman was peppered by more than a dozen reporters for over an hour on the state of the Yankees at MLB’s GM meetings. He wore a pink golf shirt and stood defiantly as his arms hugged the sides of his body. His sunglasses likely hid a furrowed brow and the intense glare from his eyes. His face became redder as he passionately defended the Yankees against their critics from the first moment he spoke. He dropped F-bombs and challenged anyone who dared him to speak about the failings of his organization.
There is a scene in the 2001 film “Training Day” where actor Denzel Washington, who portrays a crooked cop in the movie, stands at the center of a circle surrounded by criminals and screams as spit flies out of his mouth about how he’s the one who actually runs the streets. Cashman did his best impersonation of Washington on Tuesday afternoon as he told all of his naysayers and the deniers of the team’s analytics department where they could shove their criticism.
View: https://twitter.com/JakeAsman/status/1724476386352525476We're Cashman's comments about Stanton calculated to try and get Stanton to waive his no trade clause if Yankees found a team to take him (they would have to eat some of the money) or am I giving Cashman too much credit and he's just completely lashing out again?
I'm referring to Michael Kay as 'way more ignorant about an organization he has covered for decades than he should be" and nj.com as 'not worth clicking on no matter how starved you are for Yankee news'.Michael Kay has referred to the interview as, "Indefensible" & nj.com referred to it as an "hour-long tantrum".
Declaring a player oft-injured as a feature rather than a bug is an interesting way to market him for a trade.Well...the Stanton stuff was only a few days after an hour-long expletive-laced "rant" where Cashman called a former Yankees minor league prospect "Bitter Boy" & bragged (?) about how small their analytics department was. It was not exactly a calculated, hinged press conference.
https://theathletic.com/5042054/2023/11/07/yankees-gm-brian-cashman-rant-analytics/
Michael Kay has referred to the interview as, "Indefensible" & nj.com referred to it as an "hour-long tantrum".
But there is a theory out there that this particular public-shaming was for the purposes of trying to get Stanton to waive his no trade clause...
View: https://twitter.com/JakeAsman/status/1724476386352525476
He strikes me as more of a 9th or 10th starter. Flyball pitcher in the 1st percentile in strikeouts & 6th percentile in xERA. 5.2 k/9 & 3.2 bb/9 doesn't really work for me.What do we think about taking a flyer on Cal Quantrill? Perhaps we have too many #4-6 starters already.
View: https://twitter.com/zackmeisel/status/1724567690780512731
I’m done with projects and reclamations. Whose slot is he going to take?What do we think about taking a flyer on Cal Quantrill? Perhaps we have too many #4-6 starters already.
View: https://twitter.com/zackmeisel/status/1724567690780512731
Agreed. Feels like a guy who should shift to the NL Central or something. I hate the low K/9 guys, especially for a team that doesn’t play much defense.I’m done with projects and reclamations. Whose slot is he going to take?
Maybe as a late-in-the-offseason non-roster invite but I would not make him a priority now.
Those types are fine IMO but that’s what Pivetta, Crawford and Houck really are at this point- I mean in taking guys who may or may not pitch well based on some out of context stats. Those guys are fine for 4-6 type starters if you don’t have them in types like the guys on the Sox. They need a no. and a no.2 period. Sale is neither of those. Bello is possibly in a year or two…. But the margins are filled on this team. They need top armsI’m done with projects and reclamations. Whose slot is he going to take?
Maybe as a late-in-the-offseason non-roster invite but I would not make him a priority now.
This is an important and often unasked question when we look at players that we think the Sox might or should be interested in. If he requires a 40 man slot he doesn't seem to be a fit at this point.I’m done with projects and reclamations. Whose slot is he going to take?
Maybe as a late-in-the-offseason non-roster invite but I would not make him a priority now.
FWIW I agree with your (or your friend's) assessment and your last few posts on this topic. One of the biggest drivers for these guys who move from the other side of the world, speaking little to no English, not used to the schedule or the time zones or the ball or the culture, is how well they'll fit in with a given team and city. Within reason, they'll absolutely take less to play somewhere that feels like a better fit.This is heresay but no, I think the idea is that you can't just jerk around players of a certain stature, who left Japan and made the effort to join your club across the globe. Or you can! But don't complain if the next guy would rather play somewhere else.
That's 90% normal human behavior, but I think the one generalization you can actually make about how Japanese culture is different from here is that they will likely place a higher premium on being treated with respect (versus just money or whatever) than a westerner would.
I agree about the defense and I am baffled by the idea of looking to trade Yoshida. Now, if a team approached the Sox and wanted to make an offer, obviously they should consider it, but I don't get why they'd be actively looking to move him one year into his deal. He put up phenomenal numbers over a four month span and then faded. Fangraphs projects him at .291/.361/.460 with 18 homers next year which I think is definitely within reach considering he put up these rough numbers for the four month stretch of April through July last year: .301/.362/.479 with 12 homers. Something closer to that type of production through the year would make the $18 million a year contract look good.I still think the defense stats on Yoshida are skewed in a way that hurts all Sox LF’ers.
He wasn’t good…. But he’s really not THAT bad. And seeing other players have pretty high variance in defensive ratings year to year makes me think he needs more time there, not less.
Thanks. One thing I appreciate about the Sox is that they have had people over there for a long time, so chances are they understand the subtle cultural stuff pretty well, or at least someone in the org does. I only lived there for a year in the 90s and I hear kids now aren't quite like their parents but I can't imagine the fundamental stuff has changed that much. In which case a certain level of loyalty is a whole different ballgame there than we are used to in the US.FWIW I agree with your (or your friend's) assessment and your last few posts on this topic. One of the biggest drivers for these guys who move from the other side of the world, speaking little to no English, not used to the schedule or the time zones or the ball or the culture, is how well they'll fit in with a given team and city. Within reason, they'll absolutely take less to play somewhere that feels like a better fit.
They also do understand it's a business and if they stink they're getting moved (Kaz Matsui, Yoshi Tsutsugo etc). But, as you say, for players of a certain stature, jerking them around is only ever going to hurt down the road.
Trading Yoshida while trying to sign Yamamoto would just be idiotic. Even if Yamamoto signs elsewhere, trading Yoshida now would imho badly hurt the Sox' chances at signing any Japanese players over the next several years. And I don't think they want to do that when one of those guys is likely to be Roki Sasaki, maybe as early as 2025.
I believe they currently at 39This is an important and often unasked question when we look at players that we think the Sox might or should be interested in. If he requires a 40 man slot he doesn't seem to be a fit at this point.
If we are looking at trading some of our 4-6 guys, then Quantrill is a good pick-up. His last two full seasons of 21 and 22 were very good. The first half of his 23 season was terrible, but when he returned his September was very good. 28 yrs with 3 yrs of Arb. If the price is decent or he hits waivers I would not be upset at this move.What do we think about taking a flyer on Cal Quantrill? Perhaps we have too many #4-6 starters already.
View: https://twitter.com/zackmeisel/status/1724567690780512731
I'm with you. Trading Yoshida right now seems silly to me. I think he can get by in LF for another season, but even if you think the defense is so bad that he can't play there every day, the DH spot is wide open. Move him to DH, keep your reputation with Japanese players intact and see if his solid bat can get even better in year 2 in America and the big leagues. Sure, I'd like more power at the DH spot, but would it surprise anyone if he put up similar numbers to what Turner just did?I agree about the defense and I am baffled by the idea of looking to trade Yoshida. Now, if a team approached the Sox and wanted to make an offer, obviously they should consider it, but I don't get why they'd be actively looking to move him one year into his deal. He put up phenomenal numbers over a four month span and then faded. Fangraphs projects him at .291/.361/.460 with 18 homers next year which I think is definitely within reach considering he put up these rough numbers for the four month stretch of April through July last year: .301/.362/.479 with 12 homers. Something closer to that type of production through the year would make the $18 million a year contract look good.
In other words, Matt Cain syndrome. Cain made a career as a moderate-strikeout, fly ball pitcher whose ERAs were always a run or so better than his xFIPs for like eight straight seasons… until suddenly he lost whatever magic was keeping his fastball off the sweet spot and the fly balls started leaving the yard.Quantrill is weird because of how consistently & how drastically he overperformed his xFIP the last 3 years prior to this past year.
'19: 5.16 ERA, 4.53 xFIP
'20: 2.25 ERA, 4.27 xFIP
'21: 2.89 ERA, 4.43 xFIP
'22: 3.38 ERA, 4.39 xFIP
'23: 5.24 ERA, 5.43 xFIP
& that September that Idaho mentioned was a 2.76 ERA...but a 5.53 xFIP in 32.2 IP. So it's hard to say if that's a fluke, or just Quantrill getting back to doing Quantrill things.
I am confidant that if the DH spot is open, the Sox can figure out how to use that flexibility to maximize Yoshida's production/performance. I'm really excited to see what he can do after a normal off-season and a full spring training.I'm with you. Trading Yoshida right now seems silly to me. I think he can get by in LF for another season, but even if you think the defense is so bad that he can't play there every day, the DH spot is wide open. Move him to DH, keep your reputation with Japanese players intact and see if his solid bat can get even better in year 2 in America and the big leagues. Sure, I'd like more power at the DH spot, but would it surprise anyone if he put up similar numbers to what Turner just did?
Yoshi: 289/338/455, 15 HR, 71 R, 72 RBI, 8 SB
Turner: 276/345/455, 23 HR, 86 R, 96 RBI, 4 SB
Maybe the power doesn't quite get there but moving him to DH allows the OF defense to get better and you're (hopefully) getting similar production at DH to what you just got from Turner. This also allows you to allocate the $ you spent on Turner towards more pitching with Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Verdugo/RHH FA or Trade in the OF mix (and, fingers crossed, Roman Anthony forcing his way to Boston in the 2nd half).