Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

[Cellar-Door]

Looking at the 2021 draft, the two worst quarterbacks came from schools with less elite talent in Wilson and Lance. Lance was so bad that even San Fran couldn't make a QB out of him. I'm not sure why "played with great players" belongs in the con column when it invariably is paired with "played against great players". Weird take honestly.

So this is not always true, though generally more likely. Some teams are much better than their conference as a whole and so may play few good great opponents.

But yeah, playing with great players can mean you can't see certain things on tape. Like Mac Jones, he faced zero quick pressure or repeated pressure in his whole time at Alabama, and he had a lot of easy throws to open WRs. So that made it hard to tell how he'd respond, but.... you could say the same for some other QBs on loaded teams who ended up just fine. Honestly if I were worried about a guy playing with great talent it would be Penix because we saw how he struggled against a top defense who got pressure. I have no concerns like that for Daniels, because he carried his team against tough opponents and his line was not great. He's not a perfect prospect at all, but you can see most everything good or bad in his tape, there is plenty of tape on how he handles pressure, decent amount of tight window stuff, etc.

 

[Jimbodandy]

So this is not always true, though generally more likely. Some teams are much better than their conference as a whole and so may play few good great opponents.

But yeah, playing with great players can mean you can't see certain things on tape. Like Mac Jones, he faced zero quick pressure or repeated pressure in his whole time at Alabama, and he had a lot of easy throws to open WRs. So that made it hard to tell how he'd respond, but.... you could say the same for some other QBs on loaded teams who ended up just fine. Honestly if I were worried about a guy playing with great talent it would be Penix because we saw how he struggled against a top defense who got pressure. I have no concerns like that for Daniels, because he carried his team against tough opponents and his line was not great. He's not a perfect prospect at all, but you can see most everything good or bad in his tape, there is plenty of tape on how he handles pressure, decent amount of tight window stuff, etc.

Guys have to be taken on a case by case basis certainly. Mac Jones is the football Mookie Betts around here, and his situation is pretty unique. That team was fucking loaded even by SEC standards.

I was mostly pointing out that QBs from weak programs can be taken top 3 and suck too, because even if they're super productive, who gives a shit if you dropped 70 on Utah State. Peyton Manning's Tennessee team won the national title the year after he left, that's how good they were. He turned out fine.

Does the guy have the size, the arm, and the processor? That's all that matters.

 

[nighthob]

I don’t understand why the Commanders would do this.
“Hi Commanders give us #2 and next year’s first for #1, we don’t want to draft the guy we’re supposed to.”
”Uh but if we say no don’t you just draft the player you actually want and leave the other guy for us?”
”No! If you don’t take this offer we will trade down to #6 and the Giants will take the guy we’re supposed to pick and you will have to take the player we like!”
”Sweet we like him, go nuts.”

The problem with this cutesy approach is that Seattle tried just that 30 odd years ago thinking that the Patriots would pass on Drew Bledsoe and draft Rich Mirer instead. They even rebuffed the Patriots when the Pats called. Their punishment was drafting Rich Mirer when the Patriots selected Bledsoe. If there’s a guy you really want, then trade for him. Or learn to live with the alternative.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

can you cite what games you saw where he demonstrated a “noodle” arm?

The played with elite talent thing is irrelevant. Elite talent doesn’t make a guy’s ball placement NFL caliber. There weren’t a lot of throws which were bad and Thomas and Nabers were making special plays on. Plenty of good NFL QB’s played with elite talent in college and turned out just fine.

How about all of them? That’s like asking me to cite the games he pulled the ball down and ran.

The elite talent narrative isn’t irrelevant. It’s a major factor at the college level because of how drastic the the talent drop can be. The second and third corners on a college team are nothing like what you’re going to see in the NFL. You are correct in stating that Thomas and Nabers didn’t have to adjust much to throws and that’s because they were open. A lot.

 

[BaseballJones]

Guys have to be taken on a case by case basis certainly. Mac Jones is the football Mookie Betts around here, and his situation is pretty unique. That team was fucking loaded even by SEC standards.

I was mostly pointing out that QBs from weak programs can be taken top 3 and suck too, because even if they're super productive, who gives a shit if you dropped 70 on Utah State. Peyton Manning's Tennessee team won the national title the year after he left, that's how good they were. He turned out fine.

Does the guy have the size, the arm, and the processor? That's all that matters.

Joe Burrow had as much, or more, talent around him as Mac did, and the scouting reports on Burrow all said his arm was decent, not great. Mediocre. But he had elite ball placement and, as we've found out, he has a toughness and resiliency and the right "stuff" that has made him incredibly successful in the NFL. It's hard to see that on tape when both guys are surrounded by so much talent.

 

[j44thor]

Looking at the 2021 draft, the two worst quarterbacks came from schools with less elite talent in Wilson and Lance. Lance was so bad that even San Fran couldn't make a QB out of him. I'm not sure why "played with great players" belongs in the con column when it invariably is paired with "played against great players". Weird take honestly.

Lance never really got a fair shot. If there was one QB coming out of the 21 class that needed reps it was Lance. He was super young, younger than Bo Nix, and sat out a season due to Covid. He was SF presumed starter in 22 until season ending injury in his second game his second season then Brock Purdy happened. While it is more probable than not that he washes out of the league it will most likely be because he simply never got the developmental reps he needed. I wouldn't be upset if NE took a flier on him given he is wasting away on the Cowboys roster. He isn't quite the athlete Daniels is but was on his level as a runner in college and has better size though his career was derailed on a running play so...

 

[DJnVa]

Guys have to be taken on a case by case basis certainly. Mac Jones is the football Mookie Betts around here,

I'm trying, but I cannot figure this take out.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I'm trying, but I cannot figure this take out.

In the Sox forum, all threads on all subjects end up being about Mookie. Mac finds his way into every thread here if it goes on long enough.

 

[DJnVa]

In the Sox forum, all threads on all subjects end up being about Mookie. Mac finds his way into every thread here if it goes on long enough.

Gotcha. Okay. Makes sense.

 

[Justthetippett]

Joe Burrow had as much, or more, talent around him as Mac did, and the scouting reports on Burrow all said his arm was decent, not great. Mediocre. But he had elite ball placement and, as we've found out, he has a toughness and resiliency and the right "stuff" that has made him incredibly successful in the NFL. It's hard to see that on tape when both guys are surrounded by so much talent.

I never understood this assessment of Burrow's arm talent. I think his arm far, far exceeds Mac's. So if he's "decent" than Mac is not on the scale at all. Is there a throw he can't make? Mac can't throw outside the numbers. (An exaggeration, but all of his throws out there float.) His mechanics are also far superior to Mac's. To my (untrained) eye he's much closer to Brady in that sense than he is to Mac. And that's without addressing the pocket presence, processing, etc.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Arm strength is one of the most overrated aspects of any QB prospect. Does anyone actually think Mac failed due to a lack of arm strength? Not arguing he has a cannon of an arm but his problems seem mostly mental decision making, mechanics/footwork and accuracy. Plus a lack of athleticism to create on his own.

I cant think of many, if any, QB’s who were drafted (at all, let alone early) who didn’t have enough arm strength to play at a decent level in the NFL. I can think of plenty of guys who had huge arms and failed miserably in the pros. I don’t think there’s much, if any, evidence that suggests arm strength is a deciding factor as to if a guy can be a good QB. Perhaps it prevents some guys from transcending “good” and ending up elite but even that seems dubious given we have seen elite QB’s with less than elite arm strength.

 

[NickEsasky]

Arm strength is one of the most overrated aspects of any QB prospect. Does anyone actually think Mac failed due to a lack of arm strength? Not arguing he has a cannon of an arm but his problems seem mostly mental decision making, mechanics/footwork and accuracy. Plus a lack of athleticism to create on his own.

I cant think of many, if any, QB’s who were drafted (at all, let alone early) who didn’t have enough arm strength to play at a decent level in the NFL. I can think of plenty of guys who had huge arms and failed miserably in the pros. I don’t think there’s much, if any, evidence that suggests arm strength is a deciding factor as to if a guy can be a good QB. Perhaps it prevents some guys from transcending “good” and ending up elite but even that seems dubious given we have seen elite QB’s with less than elite arm strength.

I think you're right it can be hugely overrated when all the other boxes are checked. But a big arm can help when protection breaks down, QBs are forced to throw without perfect mechanics, and when passing windows are incredibly tight. It's not the end-all and be-all, but it can help paper over some issues or allow something to be made from nothing.

 

[lexrageorge]

Arm strength is one of the most overrated aspects of any QB prospect. Does anyone actually think Mac failed due to a lack of arm strength? Not arguing he has a cannon of an arm but his problems seem mostly mental decision making, mechanics/footwork and accuracy. Plus a lack of athleticism to create on his own.

I cant think of many, if any, QB’s who were drafted (at all, let alone early) who didn’t have enough arm strength to play at a decent level in the NFL. I can think of plenty of guys who had huge arms and failed miserably in the pros. I don’t think there’s much, if any, evidence that suggests arm strength is a deciding factor as to if a guy can be a good QB. Perhaps it prevents some guys from transcending “good” and ending up elite but even that seems dubious given we have seen elite QB’s with less than elite arm strength.

Arm strength sometimes improves over time for QB's when they reach the NFL (Tom Brady is commonly used as an example, but there are certainly others such as Drew Brees). However, for whatever reason, Mac's never improved, and his throws outside the numbers seem to have regressed badly over the past 2 seasons. Along with his decision making, of course.

Arm strength certainly helps, and it should be a consideration when drafting QB's. But it should not be the sole criterion.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Arm strength is one of the most overrated aspects of any QB prospect. Does anyone actually think Mac failed due to a lack of arm strength? Not arguing he has a cannon of an arm but his problems seem mostly mental decision making, mechanics/footwork and accuracy. Plus a lack of athleticism to create on his own.

I cant think of many, if any, QB’s who were drafted (at all, let alone early) who didn’t have enough arm strength to play at a decent level in the NFL. I can think of plenty of guys who had huge arms and failed miserably in the pros. I don’t think there’s much, if any, evidence that suggests arm strength is a deciding factor as to if a guy can be a good QB. Perhaps it prevents some guys from transcending “good” and ending up elite but even that seems dubious given we have seen elite QB’s with less than elite arm strength.

I think arm strength was a part of why Mac failed. Arm strength covers up for a lot of footwork sins.
I thought Mac's arm strength issues showed up in two places:
1. Teams didn't respect middle distance throws to the sideline at all, or the quick screens to the boundary.
2. When Mac got off platform, where a guy like Levis (who has similar bad footwork and decisionmaking) could throw a fadeaway and complete it, Mac's turned pretty consistently into picks.

 

[Auger34]

Arm strength matters more in a cold weather, open stadium like in Foxboro too. Harder to throw the ball in suboptimal conditions without the arm strength to do it

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I think arm strength was a part of why Mac failed. Arm strength covers up for a lot of footwork sins.
I thought Mac's arm strength issues showed up in two places:
1. Teams didn't respect middle distance throws to the sideline at all, or the quick screens to the boundary.
2. When Mac got off platform, where a guy like Levis (who has similar bad footwork and decisionmaking) could throw a fadeaway and complete it, Mac's turned pretty consistently into picks.

While true, a guy with bad decision making is never going to be a good NFL QB. If they improve the decision making, they’ll probably be able to overcome arm strength deficiencies

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think arm strength was a part of why Mac failed. Arm strength covers up for a lot of footwork sins.
I thought Mac's arm strength issues showed up in two places:
1. Teams didn't respect middle distance throws to the sideline at all, or the quick screens to the boundary.
2. When Mac got off platform, where a guy like Levis (who has similar bad footwork and decisionmaking) could throw a fadeaway and complete it, Mac's turned pretty consistently into picks.

This. Arm strength allows off platform throws to work. Guys, especially younger guys, lose their mechanics sometimes. If your arm is borderline already, that's a real problem. Some guys mitigate that by working on their mechanics so they have a good base most of the time, but that's a hill to climb.

 

[Bowser]

When a WR is running through a defense, he's going to flash open to Josh Allen in a way he will not to Mac, because Mac knows he can't make certain throws (I'm speculating here). No doubt some of these decisions not to throw are smart ones, but I think this is how Mac's arm limits his performance and makes him easier to defend.

Likewise, I can recall several throws to WRs running a vertical route on the boundary where Mac tries to drop the ball in the window between two defenders -- a very difficult throw -- rather than zipping it past the earhole of the trailing DB ... because he can't. Again, another way Mac's arm limits him.

 

[Cellar-Door]

While true, a guy with bad decision making is never going to be a good NFL QB. If they improve the decision making, they’ll probably be able to overcome arm strength deficiencies

Maybe, but what is a bad decision for a guy with below average arm strength and what is a bad decision for a guy with a cannon are very different. Mahomes or Stafford or Allen has a much wider range of available "good decisions" to make because he can make more throws in tighter coverages from worse bases.

Arm talent (and running talent in a different way) are important because they significantly change both your options and how the defense has to respond to things. Josh Allen rolls right, nobody can leave their zone. Mac Jones breaks the pocket to the right and a whole chunk of the left side of the field is lava.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Whether the potential of Mac's arm was enough, his freelancing and bad mechanics ultimately meant that his arm showed even worse on the field than it needed to.

 

[jacklamabe65]

Interestingly, as someone who has taught for 45 years, Mac is symbolic of the students I have taught over the past decade. They were raised that they were "special," they took constructive criticism rather shabbily compared to students in the previous generation, and they often used excuses before they owned up to any personal responsibility. Thus, I think that Mac's flaws are in character more than in talent. And the one thing you can't measure is character (see Tom Brady). Consequently, I would look as deeply into the character of a potential draftee as I would his talent ability. (see Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf).

 

[Jet-Boo]

Sign me up for MJH at 3 and Bo Nix end of the 1st round.

 

[Justthetippett]

Interestingly, as someone who has taught for 45 years, Mac is symbolic of the students I have taught over the past decade. They were raised that they were "special," they took constructive criticism rather shabbily compared to students in the previous generation, and they often used excuses before they owned up to any personal responsibility. Thus, I think that Mac's flaws are in character more than in talent. And the one thing you can't measure is character (see Tom Brady). Consequently, I would look as deeply into the character of a potential draftee as I would his talent ability. (see Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf).

Agree with this, but just to say the issue with Mac is that he has bad talent and the maturity/personal responsibility/character issues. Even if he was great on one, he'd likely fail to overcome the other.

What I honestly find nauseating about Mac is his inauthenticity. He's able to give the right answers (often) but it comes across as play acting. Brady had a bit of this too in his early media interaction days, but he always backed it up with personal motivation, personal responsibility and work ethic. Mac is just a fake.

 

[DJnVa]

Lazar yesterday said the QBs that fit the scheme AVP ran in Cleveland are Maye and Penix. Just in form fit. He still thinks that if Daniels is there are 3 you take the QB and figure it out. AVP may have run that scheme last season, but that doesn't mean there are not tweaks available to get the most out of Jayden Daniels if he's the pick.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Lazar yesterday said the QBs that fit the scheme AVP ran in Cleveland are Maye and Penix. Just in form fit. He still thinks that if Daniels is there are 3 you take the QB and figure it out. AVP may have run that scheme last season, but that doesn't mean there are not tweaks available to get the most out of Jayden Daniels if he's the pick.

I think AVP has run over his career schemes that fit every QB (McAdoo too), I think people are making the mistake of saying "Well this is what he did with Joe Flacco, so clearly the best fits are big guys who like to sling it deep", versus saying... he had Joe Flacco, that's the offense you run if you have Joe Flacco.

I look at Brissett, Driskell, DTR and Walker when they were with AVP, he ran different stuff, took more advantage of their mobility. I think he ran a lot of stuff that you would run with Daniels... few designed runs, some rollouts, deep shots, etc.

In a lot of ways, the reason you bring in an AVP is that he's going to develop your QB and build his system around what the guy can do. Give him Penix... he'll go to a lot of 6/7 man protections and deeper routes, fewer middle of the field routes. Give him Maye... more 5/6 man protections, get him out of the pocket more, more crossers in the middle. Give him Daniels... more QB movement, some RPO, deep shots on the roll side, more YAC and scramble drill friendly WRs.

 

[jk333]

Are there any studies look at age and QBR? Ideally incorporating years in the NFL also.

Interesting that Maye and Williams are multiple (2+ in a couple cases) years younger than Penix, Daniels and Nix.

OTOH, Mac, Wilson and Fields all busted as prospects the same age as Maye and Williams. So maybe it’s not a meaningful metric. Especially jarring to see Washington potentially replace their 23 year old QB with another 23 year old QB.

Edit- I’d still draft a QB just based on importance but it just seems like a crapshoot

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Sign me up for MJH at 3 and Bo Nix end of the 1st round.

I want nothing to do with Bo Nix, and your scenario suggests spending a 2nd and 3rd rounder to land him. No, thanks. What do you like about him?

 

[RSC3000]

I think AVP has run over his career schemes that fit every QB (McAdoo too), I think people are making the mistake of saying "Well this is what he did with Joe Flacco, so clearly the best fits are big guys who like to sling it deep", versus saying... he had Joe Flacco, that's the offense you run if you have Joe Flacco.

I look at Brissett, Driskell, DTR and Walker when they were with AVP, he ran different stuff, took more advantage of their mobility. I think he ran a lot of stuff that you would run with Daniels... few designed runs, some rollouts, deep shots, etc.

In a lot of ways, the reason you bring in an AVP is that he's going to develop your QB and build his system around what the guy can do. Give him Penix... he'll go to a lot of 6/7 man protections and deeper routes, fewer middle of the field routes. Give him Maye... more 5/6 man protections, get him out of the pocket more, more crossers in the middle. Give him Daniels... more QB movement, some RPO, deep shots on the roll side, more YAC and scramble drill friendly WRs.

Bringing in AVP + McAdoo has me bullish we're going QB. Sounds like AVP / McAdoo offer us a great baseline to build on the strengths of whichever QB comes in as you've laid out. That being said, I'm seeing a lot of smoke about trading down. Most recently that we're a candidate to move down and will address the QB spot in FA(ESPN+ content). I'd be very confused by that decision as I'd be shocked to see Cousins/Mayfield signing in NE. I'm chalking this up as borden / posturing by someone / click generation? Every prospect is going to have a degree of risk, think we need to just roll the dice on the best QB we can get and hope the new offensive staff can develop them.

 

[DJnVa]

I'm chalking this up as borden / posturing by someone / click generation?

Saying the Patriots will draft the QB at #3 is a very short article, especially if you think QBs go 1, 2 ahead of them. There's no real comparison to make.

Conjuring up trade scenarios gives you an easy 500 words.

 

[Cellar-Door]

While I expect a QB at 3 I also expect a lot of talk about trades.
A lot of teams are looking for QBs, and NE seems more likely than Was to trade down.
Also sets up conversations about who is the 2nd/3rd QB

I don't think it's totally impossible, while this is your best shot at a franchise QB likely, there is probably a level at which you aren't sure on the QB and a huge haul tempts you, given the total rebuild underway

 

[bsj]

If we trade down, are able to get Alt, and still get a QB late round 1, fine. But we need a QB this draft.

 

[axx]

Bringing in AVP + McAdoo has me bullish we're going QB. Sounds like AVP / McAdoo offer us a great baseline to build on the strengths of whichever QB comes in as you've laid out. That being said, I'm seeing a lot of smoke about trading down. Most recently that we're a candidate to move down and will address the QB spot in FA(ESPN+ content). I'd be very confused by that decision as I'd be shocked to see Cousins/Mayfield signing in NE. I'm chalking this up as borden / posturing by someone / click generation? Every prospect is going to have a degree of risk, think we need to just roll the dice on the best QB we can get and hope the new offensive staff can develop them.

Don't think teams think that way, esp that high. If they take a QB at 3 it's because they like the guy and not just to take a QB.

BTW I am on board with the Pats taking 2 QBs in this draft if they are so inclined. The second one would be in the later rounds. Kind of surprised Mac hasn't been released yet but perhaps that will happen after the season.

 

[jsinger121]

Don't think teams think that way, esp that high. If they take a QB at 3 it's because they like the guy and not just to take a QB.

BTW I am on board with the Pats taking 2 QBs in this draft if they are so inclined. The second one would be in the later rounds. Kind of surprised Mac hasn't been released yet but perhaps that will happen after the season.

Why release him when he’s cheap and under contract and you can flip him for a later round draft pick at the draft?

 

[axx]

Why release him when he’s cheap and under contract and you can flip him for a later round draft pick at the draft?

If they get a bag of balls for him... I would consider that a huge win.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

If they get a bag of balls for him... I would consider that a huge win.

They'd be at 10.5 psi though. Or as the intrepid football reporters would say "weigh 10.5 pounds"

 

[Anthologos]

Deleted. Wrong thread.

 

[Cellar-Door]

View: https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1756417297865195539


Jeremiah joins the crowd on thinking QBs are going quick in this draft and everyone is looking to move up.

Brugler says he thinks JJ McCarthy is going top 12
View: https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1756483217689804992


Seems like QB inflation is coming (2011 style), means you basically have to either take a QB at 3 or trade down and try to load up on falling talent and find your QB elsewhere.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1756417297865195539


Jeremiah joins the crowd on thinking QBs are going quick in this draft and everyone is looking to move up.

Brugler says he thinks JJ McCarthy is going top 12
View: https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1756483217689804992


Seems like QB inflation is coming (2011 style), means you basically have to either take a QB at 3 or trade down and try to load up on falling talent and find your QB elsewhere.

JJ McCarthy going top 12 would be a classic case of the draft industrial complex building up a prospect that has no business going up there.

 

[Saints Rest]

Bringing in AVP + McAdoo has me bullish we're going QB. Sounds like AVP / McAdoo offer us a great baseline to build on the strengths of whichever QB comes in as you've laid out. That being said, I'm seeing a lot of smoke about trading down. Most recently that we're a candidate to move down and will address the QB spot in FA(ESPN+ content). I'd be very confused by that decision as I'd be shocked to see Cousins/Mayfield signing in NE. I'm chalking this up as borden / posturing by someone / click generation? Every prospect is going to have a degree of risk, think we need to just roll the dice on the best QB we can get and hope the new offensive staff can develop them.

I actually feel the AVP/McA combo makes me think that #3 might go another way other than QB, for the reasons you suggest -- that they can "build on the strengths of whichever QB comes in" -- so that could mean #3, FA, or a later pick.

 

[RSC3000]

Don't think teams think that way, esp that high. If they take a QB at 3 it's because they like the guy and not just to take a QB.

BTW I am on board with the Pats taking 2 QBs in this draft if they are so inclined. The second one would be in the later rounds. Kind of surprised Mac hasn't been released yet but perhaps that will happen after the season.

My bad for not being more clear, I intended for this to be implied that if they go QB at #3, they like the prospect and not just taking a QB to take a QB. Of course if they don't see it or have serious concerns, I'd trust their judgement to slide down. We're on the same page with the double dip, I like it.

I actually feel the AVP/McA combo makes me think that #3 might go another way other than QB, for the reasons you suggest -- that they can "build on the strengths of whichever QB comes in" -- so that could mean #3, FA, or a later pick.

True - could definitely go in any direction. I mentioned this because I've heard McAdoo is supposedly an elite QB prospect talent evaluator. I hadn't heard a similar thing about this skill with established pros, though maybe he is? I don't think it's impossible that they trade down, but as CD just mentioned above, could be a run on those tier 2 QB prospects going earlier than expected so you could miss the guy you like later.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

JJ McCarthy going top 12 would be a classic case of the draft industrial complex building up a prospect that has no business going up there.

Counterpoint - all of the mocks and pundit generated draft projections we are all going off of have nothing to do with how actual NFL teams evaluate these guys.

If teams do start an early run on QBs maybe you are right about inflation. On the other hand, maybe a lot of the info the media and fans are working off of is stale/not reflective of how the people working in the trenches see these players.

Maybe McCarthy is worthy of being selected higher than you/NFL reporters/online sites have them?

 

[Fishercat]

There's also just the reality that unless you get a complete perfect storm of a team, you need a top flight QB to win in the NFL. There's likely executives who, if they're running a team with a QB they know isn't it, and the choice is between a likely positive contributor and a QB who has a low change at being what you need, they'd still rather take the chance at QB. Some people would rather have a JJ McCarthy even if they think he has a 10% chance of being a SB Caliber Starting QB over someone like Brock Bowers who might be an immediate, valuable players but more the guy who is a cog to a champion and not guiding it.

Especially if next year's QB class isn't the answer.

 

[Bongorific]

There's also just the reality that unless you get a complete perfect storm of a team, you need a top flight QB to win in the NFL. There's likely executives who, if they're running a team with a QB they know isn't it, and the choice is between a likely positive contributor and a QB who has a low change at being what you need, they'd still rather take the chance at QB. Some people would rather have a JJ McCarthy even if they think he has a 10% chance of being a SB Caliber Starting QB over someone like Brock Bowers who might be an immediate, valuable players but more the guy who is a cog to a champion and not guiding it.

Especially if next year's QB class isn't the answer.

Look at the AFC playoffs. “Just wait until the Chiefs/Ravens/Bills need to start paying Mahomes/Lamar/Josh, it’ll cripple their cap space!” You have a star QB, pretty good chance you’re competing for a conference title for a decade.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I actually feel the AVP/McA combo makes me think that #3 might go another way other than QB, for the reasons you suggest -- that they can "build on the strengths of whichever QB comes in" -- so that could mean #3, FA, or a later pick.

Maybe, but I would hope that one of the lessons of Mac was... stop assuming you can turn mediocre talent into something rather than turn a guy with elite talent into a star.

 

[ShaneTrot]

I am buying into the QB inflation. After watching the past 10 Super Bowls, 4 won by Brady, 3 won by Mahomes, 1 by an admittingly hobbled Peyton Manning, 1 by a sometimes awesome Matthew Stafford, and 1 by Nick Foles. One guy doesn't belong in that group. If you don't have an awesome QB, your chances of winning a Super Bowl are low.

 

[brandonchristensen]

I am buying into the QB inflation. After watching the past 10 Super Bowls, 4 won by Brady, 3 won by Mahomes, 1 by an admittingly hobbled Peyton Manning, 1 by a sometimes awesome Matthew Stafford, and 1 by Nick Foles. One guy doesn't belong in that group. If you don't have an awesome QB, your chances of winning a Super Bowl are low.

That’s crazy.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I am buying into the QB inflation. After watching the past 10 Super Bowls, 4 won by Brady, 3 won by Mahomes, 1 by an admittingly hobbled Peyton Manning, 1 by a sometimes awesome Matthew Stafford, and 1 by Nick Foles. One guy doesn't belong in that group. If you don't have an awesome QB, your chances of winning a Super Bowl are low.

Im surprised it’s not more inflated to be honest.

The idea that you can build a great 52 guys and plug in your “good not great” QB and run a gauntlet of some combo of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud and (maybe depending on Harbaugh) Herbert to hope to get to the Super Bowl is crazy to me.

You have to have a guy who can go toe to toe with those guys. To me, that means a 10% chance McCarthy or Penix or whoever turns out to be one of those guys is more valuable than a 40% chance Fashanu is the next Walter Jones + a 20% chance whatever 2nd round WR is the next Jefferson or Fitzgerald.

Yes, you need to set your QB up for success but unless and until you have your QB, not much else matters.

The problem with any team, not just the Pats, trying to “load up” on talent via accumulating picks is that most of those picks aren’t going to pan out. That’s the way the draft goes. And the ones who do pan out are almost certainly not going to be as valuable as a top 10 in the NFL QB.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Counterpoint - all of the mocks and pundit generated draft projections we are all going off of have nothing to do with how actual NFL teams evaluate these guys.

If teams do start an early run on QBs maybe you are right about inflation. On the other hand, maybe a lot of the info the media and fans are working off of is stale/not reflective of how the people working in the trenches see these players.

Maybe McCarthy is worthy of being selected higher than you/NFL reporters/online sites have them?

It’s not worth much but a lot of draft “analysts” have been pumping McCarthy as a guy “people in NFL circles think will go in the 1st” for a few months. I think a lot of fans and mock draft type sites are behind the NFL scout thinking on him.

Doesn’t mean he will pan out or he is an elite prospect but the idea that he’s viewed that way by the NFL has been out there.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It’s not worth much but a lot of draft “analysts” have been pumping McCarthy as a guy “people in NFL circles think will go in the 1st” for a few months. I think a lot of fans and mock draft type sites are behind the NFL scout thinking on him.

Doesn’t mean he will pan out or he is an elite prospect but the idea that he’s viewed that way by the NFL has been out there.

I can see it with him honestly.
He's super raw, not ready, but he's got good tools and coaches/teammates rave about his personality and demeanor. I think teams look at him versus Nix/Penix and say "this dude is way ahead of where they were at his age, and his ceiling is just way higher. I need an elite QB to compete and this kid may not make it there, but I see the bones of a top 10 QB here in a way I don't with the more finished products."

If I were a stuck in the middle team that needed a QB.... he'd be the most tempting, because the wider range of outcomes is better than lowering the ceiling.

 

[Justthetippett]

To me it's coming down to: take a QB (either at #3 or in a minor trade down scenario so that you still get one of Maye/Daniels/JJ, whichever one slides a bit); or trade for Fields because you think he has a better chance of succeeding than the draftees. They have to come out of this draft with something they believe to be the QB answer. Can't do the FA dregs, run it back with MacZap or punt to next year. I can be sold on one of the draftees or Fields. The other options just aren't good.