Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

NortheasternPJ

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 16, 2004
19,139
Im surprised it’s not more inflated to be honest.

The idea that you can build a great 52 guys and plug in your “good not great” QB and run a gauntlet of some combo of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud and (maybe depending on Harbaugh) Herbert to hope to get to the Super Bowl is crazy to me.

You have to have a guy who can go toe to toe with those guys.
One thing I think is overlooked often in these huge games when adversity comes is what happens when you don’t have that elite QB leading the other 52.

Chris Long brought it up in halftime of the Atlanta SB to McCourty and he was all bummed out and McCourty basically told him, we’re good, don’t worry, we got Tom. I’m guessing the Chiefs were the same way yesterday. We don’t need to press, we don’t fall apart, as long as it’s close Mahomes has it.

You have a non-elite QB, the team is missing that aspect.
 

Justthetippett

New Member
Aug 9, 2015
2,178
One thing I think is overlooked often in these huge games when adversity comes is what happens when you don’t have that elite QB leading the other 52.

Chris Long brought it up in halftime of the Atlanta SB to McCourty and he was all bummed out and McCourty basically told him, we’re good, don’t worry, we got Tom. I’m guessing the Chiefs were the same way yesterday. We don’t need to press, we don’t fall apart, as long as it’s close Mahomes has it.

You have a non-elite QB, the team is missing that aspect.
KC came really close to coming apart. Kelce nearly tackled Reid. Both Mahomes and Jones were getting in guys faces on the sidelines. It's a minor miracle they held it together. I think you're 100% right that this comes down to confidence in the most important position on the field. KC had it, SF grasped at it periodically but couldn't quite close the deal.

Also SF had chances to make this all irrelevant and performed poorly during those moments. If they scored next when the game was 10-3, I think the outcome is different. If the door is open for a guy of Mahomes' caliber (which is basically a three SB QB club with Brady and Montana), then he will make you pay.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
46,922
KC came really close to coming apart. Kelce nearly tackled Reid. Both Mahomes and Jones were getting in guys faces on the sidelines. It's a minor miracle they held it together. I think you're 100% right that this comes down to confidence in the most important position on the field. KC had it, SF grasped at it periodically but couldn't quite close the deal.

Also SF had chances to make this all irrelevant and performed poorly during those moments. If they scored next when the game was 10-3, I think the outcome is different. If the door is open for a guy of Mahomes' caliber (which is basically a three SB QB club with Brady and Montana), then he will make you pay.
Yeah, Kelce completely flipped out on his coach and that would be a major story today if the Niners hadn’t forgotten how to score points. The Chiefs were on tilt. Once McCloud screwed up, it seemed to settle them down.
 

RSC3000

New Member
Jan 23, 2024
11
Austin, TX
Im surprised it’s not more inflated to be honest.

The idea that you can build a great 52 guys and plug in your “good not great” QB and run a gauntlet of some combo of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Stroud and (maybe depending on Harbaugh) Herbert to hope to get to the Super Bowl is crazy to me.

You have to have a guy who can go toe to toe with those guys. To me, that means a 10% chance McCarthy or Penix or whoever turns out to be one of those guys is more valuable than a 40% chance Fashanu is the next Walter Jones + a 20% chance whatever 2nd round WR is the next Jefferson or Fitzgerald.

Yes, you need to set your QB up for success but unless and until you have your QB, not much else matters.

The problem with any team, not just the Pats, trying to “load up” on talent via accumulating picks is that most of those picks aren’t going to pan out. That’s the way the draft goes. And the ones who do pan out are almost certainly not going to be as valuable as a top 10 in the NFL QB.
Love this take, I'm aligned to this as well. I've found it interesting how many people whose preference to take MHJ or "trade down" scenario think it's a guarantee the guys you're taking are locks to be contributors until you find the QB. Maybe it works out, but what are the consequences if it doesn't and you still don't have a QB? It's really difficult to get a top 3 pick and find a game changer at QB, which is why so many teams are desperate to trade up and overdraft one every year.

I'd be curious if there's a successful scenario that we can point to where a team consciously built out the rest of its roster from the bottom up, prior to have the QB in place that worked out. SF seems like a good recent example, though haven't been able to get over the top yet.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,002
Mansfield MA
Love this take, I'm aligned to this as well. I've found it interesting how many people whose preference to take MHJ or "trade down" scenario think it's a guarantee the guys you're taking are locks to be contributors until you find the QB. Maybe it works out, but what are the consequences if it doesn't and you still don't have a QB? It's really difficult to get a top 3 pick and find a game changer at QB, which is why so many teams are desperate to trade up and overdraft one every year.

I'd be curious if there's a successful scenario that we can point to where a team consciously built out the rest of its roster from the bottom up, prior to have the QB in place that worked out. SF seems like a good recent example, though haven't been able to get over the top yet.
Kansas City is another obvious example; they got Alex Smith as a veteran stopgap, and then dropped Mahomes (with the luxury of sitting a year) into a stacked offensive supporting cast.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
33,946
Sikkema did his first 2 rounder with trades at PFF:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-post-super-bowl-2024-nfl-mock-draft-five-quarterbacks-first-round

Patriots take Daniels at 3, trade back from 34 (top names on the board at need positions were Suamataia, AD Mitchell, Polk)

At 44 we take Dominic Puni a T/G type (Patrick Paul was on the board) I kind of hate it because it seems like the consensus is he's a G/C at the next level, to the point he was taking snaps at C in the Senior Bowl practices. I think they need a real T.
 

RSC3000

New Member
Jan 23, 2024
11
Austin, TX
Kansas City is another obvious example; they got Alex Smith as a veteran stopgap, and then dropped Mahomes (with the luxury of sitting a year) into a stacked offensive supporting cast.
Yea I didn't include them as they already had a play-off caliber team with Alex Smith at the helm. 2016 + 2017 they won their division. I was thinking more about teams they were bottomed out and trying to build by passing on the QB until the team was full(kind of what the Bears are attempting to do). In that scenario, the Chiefs wouldn't qualify.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,205
around the way
I'm on team "draft a QB at #3", but this super bowl isn't an object lesson for me that you need a HoF level QB to operate that this level. Honestly more the opposite. If San Fran doesn't shit on themselves in the second half (and lost their best defender IMO) then things maybe go differently. More importantly they got to another superbowl with a meh talent at QB because he was surrounded by quality players.

Obviously the different between having Mahomes and not was apparent late in the game when a couple of timely pressures from KC forced changes in possessions. Purdy couldn't execute with guys in his face at the ungodly level that Mahomes does sometimes, because of a lot of reasons, not the least of which was Mahomes uncanny ability to know who was absolutely open even with nowhere near the time to do it. Of course if you switch QBs in the 4th things probably go differently in that game. But that doesn't take away from the fact that SF keeps getting to super bowls with a puncher's chance with guys like Jimmy and Brock.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,002
Mansfield MA
Yea I didn't include them as they already had a play-off caliber team with Alex Smith at the helm. 2016 + 2017 they won their division. I was thinking more about teams they were bottomed out and trying to build by passing on the QB until the team was full(kind of what the Bears are attempting to do). In that scenario, the Chiefs wouldn't qualify.
They did bottom out, though; they finished with the worst record in the NFL in 2012, and rather than draft a QB at #1 overall (in what was a terrible QB year), they traded for Smith and drafted Eric Fisher at 1.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,421
Yeah, Kelce completely flipped out on his coach and that would be a major story today if the Niners hadn’t forgotten how to score points. The Chiefs were on tilt. Once McCloud screwed up, it seemed to settle them down.
McCloud didn't screw up. One of his blockers did.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
46,922
McCloud didn't screw up. One of his blockers did.
They both screwed up. McCloud tried to scoop and run. You’ve followed me around commenting on this in two separate threads. We’re not going to agree so that is that.
 

Bongorific

Thinks he’s clever
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,401
Balboa Towers
I'm on team "draft a QB at #3", but this super bowl isn't an object lesson for me that you need a HoF level QB to operate that this level. Honestly more the opposite. If San Fran doesn't shit on themselves in the second half (and lost their best defender IMO) then things maybe go differently. More importantly they got to another superbowl with a meh talent at QB because he was surrounded by quality players.

Obviously the different between having Mahomes and not was apparent late in the game when a couple of timely pressures from KC forced changes in possessions. Purdy couldn't execute with guys in his face at the ungodly level that Mahomes does sometimes, because of a lot of reasons, not the least of which was Mahomes uncanny ability to know who was absolutely open even with nowhere near the time to do it. Of course if you switch QBs in the 4th things probably go differently in that game. But that doesn't take away from the fact that SF keeps getting to super bowls with a puncher's chance with guys like Jimmy and Brock.
SF is a bit of an outlier with how many elite players they have on both sides of the ball. It’s more choosing if the goal is to build a 10 win team that has a good chance to make the playoffs for awhile or a team that can win multiple championships. Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, Cleveland, Miami all have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs again next year with an averagish QB surrounded by very good talent.

Could one of them have won the SB this year? Certainly. But: Mahomes, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Mahomes, Brady, Foles, Brady, Peyton, Brady, Wilson, Flacco, Eli, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Eli, Peyton, Roethlisberger, Brady, Brady, Johnson, Brady, Dilfer, Warner, Elway, Elway, Favre, Aikman, Young. That’s 30 years where the winning QB wasn’t a top 8ish QB, what, 6 of those years?
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,421
They both screwed up. McCloud tried to scoop and run. You’ve followed me around commenting on this in two separate threads. We’re not going to agree so that is that.
I'm not following you. I'm reading all the same posts you are. I don't keep notes on who I respond to in what thread. If you're making same point in multiple threads it's fair that people will respond.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
46,922
I'm not following you. I'm reading all the same posts you are. I don't keep notes on who I respond to in what thread. If you're making same point in multiple threads it's fair that people will respond.
You already responded. I got your position. If you feel the need to “correct” me every time I reference that play, I mean, sure, go ahead. I’ll just ignore it next time.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,570
They both screwed up. McCloud tried to scoop and run. You’ve followed me around commenting on this in two separate threads. We’re not going to agree so that is that.
CFB_Rules made the point that the play is to knock the ball OOB.

Also, re:McCarthy, Tankathon has mocked him to Denver at 12 for awhile now.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
33,946
I'm on team "draft a QB at #3", but this super bowl isn't an object lesson for me that you need a HoF level QB to operate that this level. Honestly more the opposite. If San Fran doesn't shit on themselves in the second half (and lost their best defender IMO) then things maybe go differently. More importantly they got to another superbowl with a meh talent at QB because he was surrounded by quality players.

Obviously the different between having Mahomes and not was apparent late in the game when a couple of timely pressures from KC forced changes in possessions. Purdy couldn't execute with guys in his face at the ungodly level that Mahomes does sometimes, because of a lot of reasons, not the least of which was Mahomes uncanny ability to know who was absolutely open even with nowhere near the time to do it. Of course if you switch QBs in the 4th things probably go differently in that game. But that doesn't take away from the fact that SF keeps getting to super bowls with a puncher's chance with guys like Jimmy and Brock.

I think taking the SB as an object lesson is a mistake. HOWEVER, I think taking the SF team as a lesson is a much bigger one. We should look at the last 5-7 years of the NFL as a whole.... SF is far more of an outlier, generally the most successful teams in the playoffs are ones who have top QBs. You can get short runs otherwise (PHI with Hurts) but mostly if you want to really contend long term you usually need a highly drafted QB (by you or someone else).
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
46,922
CFB_Rules made the point that the play is to knock the ball OOB.

Also, re:McCarthy, Tankathon has mocked him to Denver at 12 for awhile now.
Given where McCloud was on the field, knocking it out of bounds would have been very difficult but, yes, that is always the best approach when possible. In the end, mostly just a bad luck play.
 

NortheasternPJ

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 16, 2004
19,139
I apologize for derailing this thread, maybe we should move this back to the Super Bowl Thread and not the 3rd draft pick.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,205
around the way
SF is a bit of an outlier with how many elite players they have on both sides of the ball. It’s more choosing if the goal is to build a 10 win team that has a good chance to make the playoffs for awhile or a team that can win multiple championships. Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, Cleveland, Miami all have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs again next year with an averagish QB surrounded by very good talent.

Could one of them have won the SB this year? Certainly. But: Mahomes, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Mahomes, Brady, Foles, Brady, Peyton, Brady, Wilson, Flacco, Eli, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Eli, Peyton, Roethlisberger, Brady, Brady, Johnson, Brady, Dilfer, Warner, Elway, Elway, Favre, Aikman, Young. That’s 30 years where the winning QB wasn’t a top 8ish QB, what, 6 of those years?
Absolutely and agreed. I'm 100% down with taking one of the top 3 QBs at #3. One of them will be there thankfully.

I just find it funny that after a SB where another team has gotten to the finals with a meh QB in Purdy, not unlike Jimmy G, Stafford, Goff, Flacco, Burrow, Hurts, Foles, Ryan, Wilson, Kaep, Eli, etc., people are like "and THAT'S why you need a top QB". Shit goes different, and the Flaccos and Elis of the world win too. And those guys get to the super bowl a lot.

I think taking the SB as an object lesson is a mistake. HOWEVER, I think taking the SF team as a lesson is a much bigger one. We should look at the last 5-7 years of the NFL as a whole.... SF is far more of an outlier, generally the most successful teams in the playoffs are ones who have top QBs. You can get short runs otherwise (PHI with Hurts) but mostly if you want to really contend long term you usually need a highly drafted QB (by you or someone else).
Agreed. And it's probably a hell of lot harder recreating the SF Experience than actually just drafting the QB at #3 and filling the holes on offense.
 

RSC3000

New Member
Jan 23, 2024
11
Austin, TX
They did bottom out, though; they finished with the worst record in the NFL in 2012, and rather than draft a QB at #1 overall (in what was a terrible QB year), they traded for Smith and drafted Eric Fisher at 1.
Fair enough. In my mind, I was thinking of a shorter time frame than then 5 seasons from bottoming out to "just need to add the long term QB". Even including them, I don't think it's a clear slam dunk to go in that direction over the QB first. Just too many factors one way or another. Certainly helps they had stability in the front office and coaching staff as well.

Absolutely and agreed. I'm 100% down with taking one of the top 3 QBs at #3. One of them will be there thankfully.

I just find it funny that after a SB where another team has gotten to the finals with a meh QB in Purdy, not unlike Jimmy G, Stafford, Goff, Flacco, Burrow, Hurts, Foles, Ryan, Wilson, Kaep, Eli, etc., people are like "and THAT'S why you need a top QB". Shit goes different, and the Flaccos and Elis of the world win too. And those guys get to the super bowl a lot.



Agreed. And it's probably a hell of lot harder recreating the SF Experience than actually just drafting the QB at #3 and filling the holes on offense.
To your point, SF has an unusually large number of hits all over the place in their drafts from recent years which has paid enormous dividends, which seems just as difficult as taking and landing that QB early in the draft.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,002
Mansfield MA
Fair enough. In my mind, I was thinking of a shorter time frame than then 5 seasons from bottoming out to "just need to add the long term QB". Even including them, I don't think it's a clear slam dunk to go in that direction over the QB first. Just too many factors one way or another. Certainly helps they had stability in the front office and coaching staff as well.
Well, they built stability from that low point by adding good coaching, solid players, and a competent-enough quarterback. And then to get to the next level, they got a better QB.

There are examples in both directions (building things up first or getting the QB first). My opinion is that pretty much every team should be evaluating pretty much every QB prospect pretty much every year. That doesn't mean you force it just because you need a QB if you don't really like a guy, but you damn sure better think about QB, especially any time you pick high.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
89,694
Oregon

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,570
What an awful trade. Fields is worth maybe a low second at best. I wouldn't do #3 for Fields and #8, but he has the Patriots throwing in the extra draft picks? edit#9.

edit again: the draft value chart has #3 pick 2200 points, #9 pick 1350 points. So a 850 point difference.850 is the value of the 20th pick in the draft. So he is valuing Fields as better than the 20th pick in the draft.
 
Last edited:

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,012
Yeah, that trade makes zero sense. Seems like people have a very inflated sense of Fields' value; he hasn't been a very good QB most of his 3 years.
 

PRabbit

New Member
Apr 3, 2022
108
This mocker must think the Bears GM is better than Trader Danny.

In what world is a QB that even if he breaks out, can leave in FA or needs a franchise tag worth a mid-late 1st?
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,634
I can see it with him honestly.
He's super raw, not ready, but he's got good tools and coaches/teammates rave about his personality and demeanor. I think teams look at him versus Nix/Penix and say "this dude is way ahead of where they were at his age, and his ceiling is just way higher. I need an elite QB to compete and this kid may not make it there, but I see the bones of a top 10 QB here in a way I don't with the more finished products."

If I were a stuck in the middle team that needed a QB.... he'd be the most tempting, because the wider range of outcomes is better than lowering the ceiling.
I mean I'd believe it more with JJ than Maye or Daniels. But from where I'm sitting, unless you've got Caleb Williams coming in, everyone else is going to need major surrounding help (a la Brock Purdy) to succeed. And if you're taking the remainders at three, you're unlikely to get there. With Daniels's running style, by the time you had sufficient help he might be too injured too benefit.

Denver might be a good team to raid, given their payroll issues and their desire to land a QB. They're spending a ton of money on T and WR. If JJ really is likely to go to Denver or Las Vegas, maybe taking back Bolles and a passel of picks sets McCarthy up enough to succeed (albeit with someone like Brissett to give JJ a year to watch the game from the sidelines). If you had a good LT it would free you up to devote your second round picks to addressing the horrifying state of the WR room.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
33,946
I mean I'd believe it more with JJ than Maye or Daniels. But from where I'm sitting, unless you've got Caleb Williams coming in, everyone else is going to need major surrounding help (a la Brock Purdy) to succeed. And if you're taking the remainders at three, you're unlikely to get there. With Daniels's running style, by the time you had sufficient help he might be too injured too benefit.

Denver might be a good team to raid, given their payroll issues and their desire to land a QB. They're spending a ton of money on T and WR. If JJ really is likely to go to Denver or Las Vegas, maybe taking back Bolles and a passel of picks sets McCarthy up enough to succeed (albeit with someone like Brissett to give JJ a year to watch the game from the sidelines). If you had a good LT it would free you up to devote your second round picks to addressing the horrifying state of the WR room.
Yeah I definitely do not agree. Maye is JJ but with better tools, Daniels has at least 1 truly elite tool and a lot more performance.

JJ to me makes a lot of sense above the Penix/Nix tier, I don't see it above the Maye/Daniels tier. Maye is the better upside play, and Daniels is the more polished guy who also is an elite runner.
JJ is basically poor man's Maye.

I can see the path for Daniels and Maye pretty easily, JJ you're counting on a lot more progress happening at the NFL level.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,634
He thinks the Patriots should be throwing the Bears extra picks for the privilege of trading down five spots? Does he understand how these trades work? New England could do a lot better than Fields for trading out of #3. And looking at his three round draft, that's a horrifying return for New England. I mean I guess they'd get their LT of the future. The guy succeeding Mayo wouldn't need to worry about that, anyway.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,634
Yeah I definitely do not agree. Maye is JJ but with better tools, Daniels has at least 1 truly elite tool and a lot more performance.
I'll agree that Maye has better physical tools. I just don't trust his decision making. And I'm always skeptical of 23 year olds dominating younger competition (probably due to my basketball background). But Daniels isn't very big and has a pretty reckless running style. He's someone that's going to need an elite offensive line at the next level, and I'm just not seeing how the Patriots get there.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
33,946
I'll agree that Maye has better physical tools. I just don't trust his decision making. And I'm always skeptical of 23 year olds dominating younger competition (probably due to my basketball background). But Daniels isn't very big and has a pretty reckless running style. He's someone that's going to need an elite offensive line at the next level, and I'm just not seeing how the Patriots get there.
I don't get that at all...
Why would one of the best running threats in the league need an elite line more than other QBs? If anything usually the top rushing threats significantly elevate lines. It's the pocket passers who need good lines because they can't do anything to avoid the rush.

I went through it somewhere in this thread as well, but people wildly overrate the idea that rushing QBs are more likely to get seriously injured. I have some concerns that you need to coach up Daniels to avoid contact more, but rushing QBs don't get hurt all that much more than other QBs if at all anymore.
 

thurin68

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
64
Yeah, that trade makes zero sense. Seems like people have a very inflated sense of Fields' value; he hasn't been a very good QB most of his 3 years.
Exactly…Why the hell should we trade for a guy that’s apparently even not good enough to play QB in Chicago?
 
Oct 12, 2023
472
It’s bizarre to me that anyone thinks Justin Fields has shown anything to think he is a good bet to take a team into KC, Buffalo, Baltimore etc and win a playoff game.

if you’re drafting at the back part of round 1, don’t have a better QB and the trade cost is cheap, perhaps he’s worth a one year look. He has more upside than Geno Smith or Kenny Pickett for example but he’s probably just a different flavor of underhwelming

if you’re Pittsburgh and Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy are off the board, maybe Fields makes more sense than Nix or Penix depending on what you have to give up. But if you’re in the part of the draft where you can take a home run swing on a much cheaper guy who doesn’t have 3 years of mostly terrible play on film, you just can’t entertain the idea of Fields
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,634
I don't get that at all...
Why would one of the best running threats in the league need an elite line more than other QBs?
Because he's really skinny, has a reckless running style, and is going to break at the next level. You kind of hope that he doesn't need to run and has sufficient time to throw downfield. If that line can't protect him then he's running way too often for my comfort.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,054
I am pretty sure that Caleb Williams won't be there for New England at #3, and that they'll have one of either Maye or Daniels (or both!) available there. But here's some scouting reports on all three guys.

Caleb Williams - 6-1", 218 lbs, 22 yrs old (Nov 1, 2001)

PFN
Strengths
  • Has hyper-elite composite arm talent, with 90th-percentile arm strength and elasticity.
  • Rips passes with laser-like velocity into the short, intermediate, and deep ranges.
  • Can rifle throws into rapidly closing windows and effortlessly layer velocity and touch.
  • Can torque his hips and generate elite velocity off-platform, even when rolling left.
  • Has all-encompassing angle freedom and can elongate throwing windows with elasticity.
  • Near-generational creator with incredible sense, spatial awareness, agility, and control.
  • Effortless off-platform throwing ability makes him a constant danger as a passer.
  • Instinctively finds mechanical congruence on release, which yields great areal accuracy.
  • Senses pressure well and knows how to manage the pocket and set up optimal spacing.
  • Sound decision maker on RPOs and a reliable, high-discretion conductor of the offense.
  • Flashes ideal composure and poise with little fat on pocket depth and can climb lanes.
  • Natural field processor who can adequately anticipate breaks on short hitches and curls.
  • Off-script assassin with rare leverage processing and advantage ID as a moving passer.
  • Has shown he can progress left to right and quickly shift forward from read to read.
  • Fearless competitor who combines uncommon feel with competitiveness and resolve.
Weaknesses
  • Has great frame density for his size but is around average stature for a QB.
  • Is more smooth than explosive as an athlete and isn’t quite an elite pure run threat.
  • Sometimes fails to anticipate windows over the middle, leaving opportunities untested.
  • Occasionally experiences delays between his diagnosis and trigger on second reads.
  • Hesitation, missed initial reads, and big-game hunting can invite unnecessary chaos.
  • Falls to arm arrogance when pressured at times, aiming to force ill-advised passes.
  • Adrenaline of high-pressure moments can cause lapses in situational awareness.
  • Occasionally drifts too far back when faced with interior pressure, boxing himself in.
  • Footwork can be a bit undisciplined, at times causing fluctuations in situational precision.
  • Can experience lapses in ball security when attempting to create under pressure.
Current Draft Projection and Summary
Williams grades out as a top-five prospect and a legitimate QB1 contender in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s a blue-chip QB talent, who along with North Carolina’s Drake Maye is very much worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. He could be a franchise-changing presence.

(snipped here because we don't want to quote entire articles)


PFF
STRENGTHS
Williams' arm talent is natural; it can’t be coached or replicated. He shows it with almost every throw. Many quarterback prospects are said to be able to “make every throw,” but it's an overused and often inaccurate assessment. For Williams, it's true. He can generate impressive velocity from multiple arm angles and platforms, and it never wavers. His film is littered with examples of that while he rolls left, right, backward, etc....

Williams' playmaking ability is his calling card. In this era of quarterbacks who can get out of the pocket and make plays out of structure, it’s tough to find anyone better. No signal-caller in college, and very few in the NFL, is better than Williams at making pass rushers miss while keeping his eyes downfield ready to attack. This is where the Patrick Mahomes comparisons come into play. Mahomes is the best in the world at manipulating pockets to give himself space to either throw or take off and run, and Williams shows that ability on a near-down-to-down basis.

WEAKNESSES
That playmaking ability has its downsides, and far too often Williams relied on his out-of-structure ability to create positive plays for the USC offense. This “hero ball” mentality that he was forced to play in caused him to miss on some easy plays. Williams had 50 dropbacks with a time to throw of more than 6 seconds in 2023 — the most in college football.

Williams' constant need to play out of structure led to some bad habits and bad decisions.

SUMMARY
It's a challenge to find a more talented athlete and quarterback than Caleb Williams. It’s why he’s been touted as the No. 1 overall pick for years now. His arm talent and playing ability are unteachable. He is the poster child for the new-age quarterback who can scramble and make plays that don’t seem possible while also working within the pocket and picking apart defenses.

Williams is not a perfect prospect, though, and the concerns about his reliance on out-of-structure plays are valid.




Drake Maye - 6'5", 220 lbs, 21 yrs old (Aug 30, 2002)

PFN
Strengths
  • Tall, prototypical, well-built QB with superb mobility and quantifiably elite arm talent.
  • Generates high-level velocity with effortless ease and a crisp, snappy release.
  • Can push the ball outside the numbers and past tight coverage with very little strain.
  • Has extremely fluid hip torque and legitimate 360-degree arm elasticity off-platform.
  • Possesses extremely underrated quick twitch, lateral burst, and evasive ability.
  • Has impressive control and alignment with his shoulders, both in and out of structure.
  • Has the corrective mobility and foot quickness to stabilize his base ahead of throws.
  • Displays consistent anticipation both when reacting to breaks and reading zones.
  • Can work left to right on progressions and consistently leads his eyes with his feet.
  • Boasts rare leverage awareness both as a pocket navigator and a downfield passer.
  • Weaponizes his high-level anticipation and field vision with active eye manipulation.
  • Has a willingness to take calculated risks but can also take what the defense gives him.
  • Greatly improved his pocket discipline and navigation feel as a space operator in 2023.
  • Has exceptional accuracy and situational placement to all levels to negate contact.
  • Competitive toughness and poise show up both as a pocket operator and a runner.
Weaknesses
  • Still has room to roll his base through passes more often and avoid narrowing rotation.
  • Sometimes crosses his feet, exiting phase when pocket navigating, sourcing instability.
  • Though footwork pacing and sequencing improved in 2023, base width can be streaky.
  • Tall, narrow base sometimes forces him to widen late in reps when time is scarce.
  • Still learning how to more consistently layer velocity with touch on bucket throws.
  • Will attempt to force throws with his arm strength at times when pressed to make plays.
  • Situational precision is more volatile when working out-of-structure, increasing risk.
  • Is prone to occasional ill-advised throws when forced out of the pocket by pressure.
  • Occasionally hesitates and misses opportunities with delays on his trigger.
Current Draft Projection and Summary
Drake Maye is my QB1 in the 2024 NFL Draft, and a top-three prospect along with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Caleb Williams. It’s close between him and Williams for QB1, but Maye arguably has the best balance of physical talent and operational utility.

(snipped)


PFF
STRENGTHS
Maye possesses an elite arm that allows him to get the ball to his desired target despite not being in the best throwing position. Arm strength isn’t all about how far one can throw the ball, as the velocity that they throw with is just as important. Maye has that velocity that allows him to fit the ball into tight windows....

Maye is not just a sneaky good athlete, he’s a great athlete. When the play breaks down, he can still succeed, but he doesn’t rely on it. That playmaking ability can be very chaotic at times, leading to plays you don’t normally see on a football field.

WEAKNESSES
There’s a downside to that chaotic playmaking ability that shows up all too often. Maye makes too many poor decisions in those chaotic times that lead to turnover-worthy plays that can easily be avoided. He needs to find that fine line while not getting rid of that playmaking mindset.

Consistent accuracy is also a slight problem. His 75.1% adjusted completion percentage ranked only 25th best in the FBS. Throws can sail on him at times due to poor footwork. While he has shown the ability to be accurate on off-platform throws, his consistency on the easy throws is an issue. There are too many examples of him missing simple throws from the pocket.

SUMMARY
Overall, there’s a lot to really like about Drake Maye’s game. He’s shown an ability to process plays at a high level from the pocket while also being able to make plays outside of the pocket. He’s a prototypical new-age quarterback who isn’t reliant on one set of skills. He has the toolbox that every NFL franchise is looking for.



Jayden Daniels - 6'3", 185 lbs, 23 yrs old (Dec 18, 2000)

PFN
Strengths
  • Manipulates second and third-level defenders
  • Spot zone coverage annihilator
  • Great quick game feel
  • Intermediate rhythm throws are automatic
  • Creativity to escape pressure
  • Lack of panic under pressure
  • Disciplined feet create throwing hallways vs. pressure
  • Quick release
  • Explosive lateral mover with good vision
  • Big-play threat every time he carries the football. Electric runner
Weaknesses
  • Moderate velocity
  • Absolutely no contact balance
  • Inconsistent release sporadically leads to horrendous wobblers
  • Has “on” and “off” days regarding ball placement
  • Post-snap coverage rotations can catch him by surprise
  • Takes far too many unnecessary hits

Current Draft Projection and Summary
There’s a lot to like about Daniels. He’s a naturally accurate passer to all three levels of the field with more than enough velocity to place passes into NFL windows....It shouldn’t be surprising if he shows off his dynamic ability early on in his NFL career. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

(snipped)


The Draft Network
Strengths:

  • Athleticism/mobility
  • Accurate throwing on the run
  • Elusive runner/game-changing runner in the open field
  • Leadership qualities
Concerns:

  • Passing concepts that work the middle of the field
  • Consistently operating from within pocket

Film Analysis:

Jayden Daniels fits the original thought of a dual-threat quarterback whose running ability sets up opportunities for him to throw the football.

As a passer, Daniels appears to be most comfortable on the move, where the play moves the launch point. On these designed play calls, Daniels shows off his natural athleticism by being able to easily get out of the pocket and find the open receiver in half-field read concepts. When Daniels feels that a receiver isn't open, he will take the option to tuck the football and pick up significant yardage with his legs—whether that is escaping through the middle of the pocket or escaping on the perimeter. In the pocket, Daniels looks most comfortable when he has one or two reads in a play, showing that he has the arm strength to hit opposite hash comebacks and quick curl/hitch routes to receivers.

In 2023, the element of Daniels’ game that advanced the most was his deep ball accuracy. Throughout the entire season, he showed to be able to consistently hit receivers in stride 30-40 yards down the field, making LSU’s offense one of the most explosive in college football.

On QB-run-designed plays, Daniels is dominant. Daniels can control the tempo of the game with his legs on QB power, QB counter, and QB draw plays. As a runner in the open field, Daniels is elusive and can make defenders miss in one-on-one situations. If left unaccounted for, Daniels has the speed to create a 50-plus-yard gain with his legs. Daniels’ slight frame and natural athleticism make it difficult for defenders to tackle him and he appears to always pick up extra yardage after contact.

- - - - - - -


Summary (BJ talking now):

Caleb Williams is the total package. He can make every and any throw, whether in the pocket or off platform. He brings elite physical tools to the position and has put up eye-popping numbers. The ultimate playmaker, and can make any play with his arm or with his feet. But he relies too much on off platform deliveries, sometimes needlessly. And there are questions about his personal maturity (founded? unfounded? I don't know...there are just questions). Probably the highest ceiling in this QB class.

Drake Maye is everything you'd want in a QB. Prototypical size (both height and weight). But isn't just a big guy back there. He's a world-class athlete as well. Outstanding arm strength and can make all the throws. Needs to improve footwork, but unlike Mac Jones, has the arm strength to deliver any ball even off platform. Has a high ceiling as a big-time NFL player. I like that he's only 21 years of age. More projectability.

Jayden Daniels is more of a wild card. Elite running ability, and has a highly accurate arm, especially on deep balls. Brings a bit of Lamar Jackson to the table, but is much skinnier (Daniels is 6'3", 185, while Lamar is 6'2", 215), and there are legit concerns about how long he will last in the NFL given his style of play. But the talent is there and probably will electrify an NFL team's offense right from the jump.

Any of these guys has a way, way, way higher ceiling than Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe does. Will that ceiling be realized? Who knows. Lots can go wrong with any of them. But they all have far more talent than anyone playing QB for the Patriots right now. I'd happily roll the dice with the #3 pick on any of the three. Just the energy they'd bring to the organization, giving the team and fans hope for a big-time future at the position would be worth something all by itself.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
33,946
I am pretty sure that Caleb Williams won't be there for New England at #3, and that they'll have one of either Maye or Daniels (or both!) available there. But here's some scouting reports on all three guys.



Jayden Daniels - 6'3", 185 lbs, 23 yrs old (Dec 18, 2000)



Jayden Daniels is more of a wild card. Elite running ability, and has a highly accurate arm, especially on deep balls. Brings a bit of Lamar Jackson to the table, but is much skinnier (Daniels is 6'3", 185, while Lamar is 6'2", 215), and there are legit concerns about how long he will last in the NFL given his style of play. But the talent is there and probably will electrify an NFL team's offense right from the jump.
Where are you getting 185? The two links you posted have him as either 200 (TDN) or 210 (PFN).
We'll find out in 2 weeks, but I would expect him to weigh in between 205 and 215.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,054

jsinger121

@jsinger121
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
17,643
Height and weight on a lot of these guys are usually inflated. The scouting combine we will get the true measurements.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
29,838
I'll agree that Maye has better physical tools. I just don't trust his decision making. And I'm always skeptical of 23 year olds dominating younger competition (probably due to my basketball background). But Daniels isn't very big and has a pretty reckless running style. He's someone that's going to need an elite offensive line at the next level, and I'm just not seeing how the Patriots get there.
I dont have the arsenal to argue with scouts, but I dont even think he was that dominant and it was frequently against weaker competition, not just younger..
 
Oct 12, 2023
472
Because he's really skinny, has a reckless running style, and is going to break at the next level. You kind of hope that he doesn't need to run and has sufficient time to throw downfield. If that line can't protect him then he's running way too often for my comfort.
if you’re drafting Daniels in the 1st round it’s because you see him as a dual threat and not hoping “he doesn’t need to run”

I think avoiding contact can be coached to some degree. Agreed he has a more slight frame than desired for a guy who has a lot of his value in his running but if he can avoid contact like Jackson does there’s no reason to think he’s going to be especially injury plagued at the NFL level even on a smaller frame.
 
Oct 12, 2023
472
I dont have the arsenal to argue with scouts, but I dont even think he was that dominant and it was frequently against weaker competition, not just younger..
Are you talking about Daniels there? If so, I don’t know how you can watch his performance against Mizzou and say he didn’t dominate against good competition.

His performance against Alabama was merely excellent and not dominating I suppose?

the guy had one of the best seasons for a college quarterback in recent memory. Granted the SEC West had plenty of mediocre teams in it this year but it’s still a better level of competition than many college QB’s face.

Daniels has flaws but level of competition isn’t really one of them considering virtually every QB prospect has mostly games against lots of inferior teams - such is college football these days.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,797
San Andreas Fault
Height and weight on a lot of these guys are usually inflated. The scouting combine we will get the true measurements.
Caleb is the same height as Brock Purdy, who gets a lot of (actually I think he led the league in) passes blocked at the LOS by linemen. On a lot of them, they didn't even have to jump.
 

Justthetippett

New Member
Aug 9, 2015
2,178
If Daniels weighs in at less than 200lbs, his stock is probably going to drop a little. In that case, we might end up with two top tiers: Williams/Maye and Daniels/McCarthy, followed by the other olds (Nix and Penix). Counterpoint, he knows this and will do everything he can to up his weight between now and the combine and any private workouts.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,054
I think I'm talking myself into hoping that Maye is there at #3. Great size, top-level athleticism, can make all the throws. Can run. Obviously some weaknesses but that's a guy I could easily convince myself is the next GUY at QB for NE.

I mean, if Williams is there at #3 you take him, but I don't think that's going to happen.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
36,641
Hingham, MA
I think I'm talking myself into hoping that Maye is there at #3. Great size, top-level athleticism, can make all the throws. Can run. Obviously some weaknesses but that's a guy I could easily convince myself is the next GUY at QB for NE.

I mean, if Williams is there at #3 you take him, but I don't think that's going to happen.
Yeah I find myself in the same place. I can't get on board with Daniels.

I mean, if they draft him I'll obviously try to convince myself. But he doesn't enthuse me.