Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

[NextBigThing8184]

total. His 5th year option is 23-24M, so you replace that with something like 2/40, that way if he gets cut or traded after year 5 he made more money, if not he got underpaid year 6 but he's likely signing a nice big extension anyway at that point if he's still the starter.

I dunno, if I’m trading for Fields, I recognize the risk that he doesn’t improve and I don’t want to eat 20M or whatever in cap space in 2025 so I’d decline the 5th year option and not extend him and see how he does.

and if I’m Fields, I’m forcing them to either exercise the option or risk losing me if I have a great year

In a world where Daniel Jones got 81M guaranteed, I just can’t see Fields agreeing to a 2 year extension for 2025-2026 unless it’s fully guaranteed and a bigger chunk of money than 38-40M but maybe he would take less as a hedge against injury or another subpar year.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

You really need to look at the list of the top 12 QBs. This isn't 2020, there aren't a bunch of guys on the other side of 35 there. If you're lucky the guy drafted at #3 will become an average QB. That's not a "franchise QB".

If you’re lucky, any QB taken outside the 1st round will be Bailey Zappe quality. 1st round QB’s flop a lot, non-1st round QB’s almost never pan out. I posted the numbers elsewhere, but it’s 4% of all QB’s drafted after round 1 turn into better than average QB’s.

Honestly not sure what your point is. Yeah, it’s more likely than not the 3rd QB taken isn’t a great QB. But it’s a lot more likely that guy is a great QB than a guy in the next tier of QB’s.

Finding a good QB is really hard, take the best one on your board when you know you can get him. If he fails, so be it, try again in a few years. Until you hit that home run you need to keep swinging for the fences and not hope you hit the lottery and get lucky later on.

 

[Ed Hillel]

An MHJ/Nix first-round prediction
https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-falcons-patriots-make-trades-to-land-qbs

This guy knows!

 

[NomarsFool]

Honestly not sure what your point is. Yeah, it’s more likely than not the 3rd QB taken isn’t a great QB. But it’s a lot more likely that guy is a great QB than a guy in the next tier of QB’s.

There's also a huge amount of statistical noise with the number of good QBs in different drafts. In some drafts, there are zero good quarterbacks. In some, we have 5. So, yes, sometimes the 3rd QB taken is not any good - sometimes the 5th QB taken is Dan Marino.

 

[j44thor]

If you’re lucky, any QB taken outside the 1st round will be Bailey Zappe quality. 1st round QB’s flop a lot, non-1st round QB’s almost never pan out. I posted the numbers elsewhere, but it’s 4% of all QB’s drafted after round 1 turn into better than average QB’s.

Honestly not sure what your point is. Yeah, it’s more likely than not the 3rd QB taken isn’t a great QB. But it’s a lot more likely that guy is a great QB than a guy in the next tier of QB’s.

Finding a good QB is really hard, take the best one on your board when you know you can get him. If he fails, so be it, try again in a few years. Until you hit that home run you need to keep swinging for the fences and not hope you hit the lottery and get lucky later on.

There is a lot of statistical noise in QB draft picks though because of positional scarcity. You typically only have 1 starting QB so anyone drafted later is likely drafted to be a backup. Additionally it is very difficult to unseat a high drafted QB or an established starter though not impossible as we have seen with Brock Purdy and to a much lesser extent Jimmy G/Russel Wilson. Thus even if you draft a bad QB high or sign a vet to a market contract you are most likely giving him at least 2-3yrs before you would entertain a lower drafted QB. That is just a function of how teams view draft capital and QB contracts in general.

What I do find interesting is that if we include teams 9-8 or better this season (those that came within a game of a playoff spot) 8 teams have a QB drafted by their team in the first round, 10 teams had majority of their games started by QB they either traded for or drafted outside the 1st rd. So you can certainly build a competitive team without hitting on a first rd QB.

 

[Auger34]

With the Commies hiring Kliff Kingsbury, I think that they are either going to trade up for Caleb Williams (which I think is pretty unlikely) or take Jayden Daniels.
IMO, that's great news for the Pats. I think Drake Maye will be a damn good QB

 

[E5 Yaz]

With the Commies hiring Kliff Kingsbury, I think that they are either going to trade up for Caleb Williams (which I think is pretty unlikely) or take Jayden Daniels.
IMO, that's great news for the Pats. I think Drake Maye will be a damn good QB

Why do you think it's unlikely they trade up?

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Why do you think it's unlikely they trade up?

Need a trading partner and Chicago may have committed to Williams.

 

[Auger34]

Why do you think it's unlikely they trade up?

I imagine it's going to cost a lot to go from 2 to 1 and the price will end up being too much for Washington.

I may end up completely wrong but most of the draft experts think Williams is in his own tier and I think it will be tough to give up a lot of capital to just move up one spot.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The one QB that should be available in the 2nd and possibly the 3rd rd that intrigues me is Spencer Rattler. He played on a pretty bad SC team and was competitive against some very good competition. According to most scouting reports he has plus arm talent and can make all the throws both in the pocket and off platform. He isn't a runner like Daniels but can make plays with his legs and could be a day 2/3 steal. If he had played in OR or WAS I suspect he would be getting a lot more hype especially considering most reports had him outplaying Bo Nix and Penix throughout the week of practice at the Senior Bowl where he was the MVP.

It would be a bold move but if you could drop a few spots from 3 to say 8 and pick up a future first or multiple seconds and still get a top 2 T or top 3 WR and come back with a T or WR plus Rattler in the 2nd that could fill a lot of holes quickly.

The biggest problem with Rattler is his size. He's only 6'1'. He did look good during Senior Bowl week, but let's not forget, this guy has been on the big stage before. He was the starting QB at Oklahoma (won the Big 12 in his redshirt freshman year), beat Texas, etc., he was one of the favorites to win the Heisman the following season, but then he lost the job to Caleb Williams early in the season and never played again (who then left and followed Lincoln Riley to USC). He was the #1 ranked QB in his high school class.

There is a lot of tape on Rattler out there, has been since he was a kid. He's got a lot of what you want, but he needs to have a Drew Brees like ability to process if he wants to succeed at that size, and I'm not sure he does.

 

[j44thor]

The biggest problem with Rattler is his size. He's only 6'1'. He did look good during Senior Bowl week, but let's not forget, this guy has been on the big stage before. He was the starting QB at Oklahoma (won the Big 12 in his redshirt freshman year), beat Texas, etc., he was one of the favorites to win the Heisman the following season, but then he lost the job to Caleb Williams early in the season and never played again (who then left and followed Lincoln Riley to USC). He was the #1 ranked QB in his high school class.

There is a lot of tape on Rattler out there, has been since he was a kid. He's got a lot of what you want, but he needs to have a Drew Brees like ability to process if he wants to succeed at that size, and I'm not sure he does.

Caleb Williams is 6'1", Brock Purdy is 6'1", Mahomes is 6' 2" as is Lamar Jackson. Don't think QBs need to be 6'4"+ anymore given spread offenses, RPOs and QBs making plays outside the pocket. He did lose his job to Caleb Williams who is the overwhelming favorite to go #1 overall. Not saying he is Caleb but he might just be the 2nd or 3rd best QB this draft class but available at a much lower draft pick cost. I do like him better than Bo Nix or Penix at this point and his tape at least is better than JJ McCarthy.

If I had to chose between Drake Maye (who there are rumblings may slide back) at 3 and Xavier Worthy or Jordan Morgan in 2nd or say Joe Alt/MHJ and Rattler I wouldn't be terribly disappointed with the latter.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The biggest problem with Rattler is his size. He's only 6'1'.

6 foot flat at Senior Bowl, so even smaller

 

[ehaz]

An MHJ/Nix first-round prediction
https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-falcons-patriots-make-trades-to-land-qbs

In case anyone's wondering about WAS picking Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye falling to #5, Zierlein was recently on Daniel Jeremiah's podcast the other day and said he was told by NFL folks that Maye was the most likely of the top 3 QBs to fall in the draft. He said one NFL evaluator compared Maye to Will Levis.

Maybe just typical draft misdirection. But there are some pretty vocal anti-Maye folks out there. Matt Waldman basically called him Jake Locker. Said he hated Maye's decision-making.

 

[Cellar-Door]

In case anyone's wondering about WAS picking Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye falling to #5, Zierlein was recently on Daniel Jeremiah's podcast the other day and said he was told by NFL folks that Maye was the most likely of the top 3 QBs to fall in the draft. He said one NFL evaluator compared Maye to Will Levis.

Maybe just typical draft misdirection. But there are some pretty vocal anti-Maye folks out there. Matt Waldman basically called him Jake Locker. Said he hated Maye's decision-making.

I've always thought he was the boom/bust guy of this draft. All the tools physically, but really didn't always put them together. People said Caleb regressed this year, but he put up very similar performances, his team was just a lot worse than the year before.... Maye legit looked worse (his team was also worse) than the year before

 

[DJnVa]

 

[nighthob]

I am not sure what your argument is.

Before I thought it was that you should never take a QB in the top 5 because of Brock Purdy. But with this post I am just confused.

I’m not sure that anyone said that. All I’ve said is that I just don’t see it with Maye or Daniels. They’re total crapshoots as far as I can tell.

 

[ehaz]

Jeremy Fowler reports that the Raiders might be looking to trade up for Jayden Daniels because Pierce is a big fan. Apparently, Pierce was even evaluating offensive coordinator candidates with “the loose possibility of Daniels in mind.” The Broncos and Vikings are also rumored to be interested in trading up for a QB.

The Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders hold picks #s 11, 12, and 13. So if you trade back from #3, you could end up in a situation where the blue chip WRs and OTs (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Alt, Fashanu) are all off the board by the time you pick. That's not ideal.

But, each of those teams have high level tackles they could include in a package if they're really interested in one of the QBs. When San Francisco traded up to 3 from a similar position (#12), it cost them two future firsts and a day 2 pick. Maybe you replace one of those future firsts with a tackle. So something like:

#3 = #12 + Day 2 pick + 2025 1st AND [Kolton Miller / Brian O'Neill / Garrett Bolles].

That way, you address LT with a proven starter, and you can go BPA leaning offense without worrying as much about where the tackles will fall. Maybe someone like Fashanu or Fuaga are available at #12. Great, now you've solved both tackles position with impact talent for the next five years. Maybe Brock Bowers or one of the WRs falls to #12. Now you can feel more comfortable going with a skill position in the 1st round, knowing that it doesn't force you to have to reach on whoever is left over at tackle with #34. You can take a shot at Nix/JJ/Penix early 2nd knowing that you have an extra Day 2 pick.

Not sure how realistic a draft package like that would be, but I'm warming up to the flexibility it offers vs staying at #3 or only moving down slightly for less if you're not completely sold on a QB.

 

[astrozombie]

The closer we get, the more I am talking myself into Daniels at #3. Not that I think it is good value, but it just seems inevitable. I am just bummed that this is just like the Mac draft - Mac was *not* the 15th best player on the Big Board, but the Pats needed a QB. Here we are another year with a top 3 pick and Daniels is not the third best player in the draft.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The closer we get, the more I am talking myself into Daniels at #3. Not that I think it is good value, but it just seems inevitable. I am just bummed that this is just like the Mac draft - Mac was *not* the 15th best player on the Big Board, but the Pats needed a QB. Here we are another year with a top 3 pick and Daniels is not the third best player in the draft.

The more I hear people tied into the league talk the less I think Daniels is going to be on the board at 3.

 

[Justthetippett]

The more I hear people tied into the league talk the less I think Daniels is going to be on the board at 3.

Is this more about Daniels or the shine coming off Maye?

Interesting dynamics between Chi and Wash. Do they both have Daniels ranked #2? Or 1A and 1B with Williams? Or would whoever doesn't get Williams trade out with Team X so they can pick Daniels?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is this more about Daniels or the shine coming off Maye?

Interesting dynamics between Chi and Wash. Do they both have Daniels ranked #2? Or 1A and 1B with Williams? Or would whoever doesn't get Williams trade out with Team X so they can pick Daniels?

Little of both, but a number of people now (Kiper, Zierlien, Jeremiah) have mentioned they have heard some in the league are lower on Maye

Of course conversely, Klassen thinks he should be QB1, Nate Tice is hard shopping that CHI should trade down to 2 and take Maye who he thinks is the better prospect.

 

[jtn46]

Little of both, but a number of people now (Kiper, Zierlien, Jeremiah) have mentioned they have heard some in the league are lower on Maye

Of course conversely, Klassen thinks he should be QB1, Nate Tice is hard shopping that CHI should trade down to 2 and take Maye who he thinks is the better prospect.

I don’t understand why the Commanders would do this.
“Hi Commanders give us #2 and next year’s first for #1, we don’t want to draft the guy we’re supposed to.”
”Uh but if we say no don’t you just draft the player you actually want and leave the other guy for us?”
”No! If you don’t take this offer we will trade down to #6 and the Giants will take the guy we’re supposed to pick and you will have to take the player we like!”
”Sweet we like him, go nuts.”

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don’t understand why the Commanders would do this.
“Hi Commanders give us #2 and next year’s first for #1, we don’t want to draft the guy we’re supposed to.”
”Uh but if we say no don’t you just draft the player you actually want and leave the other guy for us?”
”No! If you don’t take this offer we will trade down to #6 and the Giants will take the guy we’re supposed to pick and you will have to take the player we like!”
”Sweet we like him, go nuts.”

Well the clear reason would be WAS wants Caleb, and they can't be sure who CHI wants. If you want Caleb you're making offers for #1 now, and CHI either takes them, negotiates them or says no. He's saying he think CHI should take the best one. From WAS side... CHI might just take Caleb, but if they want to trade down, maybe it is to keep Fields and draft Harrison. Then NE is just sitting there ready to jump to #1 and take Caleb.

WAS has pretty clearly indicated they want Caleb, they hired his college OC, they had Schefter talking up a move seconds later.

 

[jtn46]

So the Bears don’t want Caleb but will draft him to spite the Commanders? Or they will fool the Commanders into thinking they want to draft him by offering #1?

 

[Cellar-Door]

So the Bears don’t want Caleb but will draft him to spite the Commanders? Or they will fool the Commanders into thinking they want to draft him by offering #1?

I'm not sure I even get your argument here.....
The Commanders want Caleb, if they want Caleb they have to trade to #1, because they have no idea what CHI will do at #1. Tice is arguing that CHI should let them trade to 1 because he thinks Maye and picks is the better value

 

[Ed Hillel]

So, sounds like Wolf has taken over personnel...Time to start looking at trade down scenarios and Tackles?

 

[jtn46]

if they are offering #1 they don’t want Caleb!!

 

[67YAZ]

You don't have to be Danny Ainge to know WAS would be jumping up to #1 for Caleb.

Chicago would do that if they decide to stick with Fields or if their assessment places another QB even or above Caleb.

Indeed, there should be enough suitors for this year's #1 that the Bears could top their haul from last season. And, if they are going to keep Fields as QB1, they could even trade with WAS for #2 and turn around and deal #2 for another haul. That second pick at #9 creates a kind of backstop where the Bears can feel assured of getting one of the Tier 1 prospects (currently something like Williams, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Nabors, Odunze, Alt, Fashanu, & Turner). Many, many possibilities for the Bears to sort through.

On a different note, was reading about Notre Dame's JD Bertrand and he seemed like a classic Belichick Day 3 guy - 2 time captain, 3 year starter, proverbial "coach on the field", had a strong week at the Senior Bowl. He'd be ILB and special teams depth to start, but profiles as the kind of hard worker that can earn a role.

But I guess we still need to find out who a Mayo-Wolf guy is.

 

[Cellar-Door]

if they are offering #1 they don’t want Caleb!!

How do you think this works? You think WAS is sitting at 2 saying "well we'd like Caleb, better hope CHI takes someone else"? They're aggressively trying to find the price at which CHI will forgo Caleb.
But also... if CHI don't want Caleb... there are oh... 10, 15, maybe 20? Other teams in the league who would be thrilled with the chance to trade assets to get Caleb. If WAS wants Caleb basically the only way they can get him is trading to #1. Also worth noting, CHI might very well want Caleb.... and still be willing to trade out if the price is right.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

if they are offering #1 they don’t want Caleb!!

Define ‘offering’? Chicago can/should sit back and take calls for the next few months, even if they currently prefer Caleb Williams. Evaluations can change ahead of the draft (see: SF and Trey Lance), and, who knows, maybe you get an insane Herschel Walker-level package offered to you to ‘settle’ for another QB a pick later?

And Washington sure isn’t gonna sit there and hope for Chicago to call them.

 

[Auger34]

Little of both, but a number of people now (Kiper, Zierlien, Jeremiah) have mentioned they have heard some in the league are lower on Maye

Of course conversely, Klassen thinks he should be QB1, Nate Tice is hard shopping that CHI should trade down to 2 and take Maye who he thinks is the better prospect.

Slight quibble here...


Jeremiah 100% has a lot of sources and is generally on the pulse of the draft. His opinion carries a lot of weight.Kiper and (especially) Zierlien don't really have that many sources and I would take their opinion with a giant grain of salt

 

[jtn46]

How do you think this works? You think WAS is sitting at 2 saying "well we'd like Caleb, better hope CHI takes someone else"? They're aggressively trying to find the price at which CHI will forgo Caleb.
But also... if CHI don't want Caleb... there are oh... 10, 15, maybe 20? Other teams in the league who would be thrilled with the chance to trade assets to get Caleb. If WAS wants Caleb basically the only way they can get him is trading to #1. Also worth noting, CHI might very well want Caleb.... and still be willing to trade out if the price is right.

Right but how does that get the Bears Drake Maye which was what Nate Tice posited? If the Commanders say no thanks we’ll stay at 2 the Bears are now picking 5th or something and don’t get a chance at Maye.

Once the Bears offer the Commanders #1 they show their cards, they don’t want Caleb which means if the Bears stay at 1 the Commanders know either they will take a QB they didn’t want or they will take something else and the Commanders can get him at 2.

 

[DJnVa]

So, sounds like Wolf has taken over personnel...Time to start looking at trade down scenarios and Tackles?

Nah. AVP is a former NFL QB. McAdoo is reportedly great at QB evaluation. The Pats are going QB at #3 unless one of the top 3 blows his knee out at his pro day. I think they want Maye, who's a good fit for the offense AVP ran last year, but will take Daniels if he's the guy there. We already heard Mayo's quote, which I bet slipped out, about taking someone at an important position at #3. They're not moving. There's no need to talk about any of the QBs, because if their scouting is happy with any of them, they're set.

 

[RG33]

I am growing more and more comfortable with the Pats taking Harrison at #3, with my dream scenario being they also trade a 2nd and 4th for Justin Fields.

I am all for Calen or Drake, but ye old Sosh Demizens have convinced me that JD is not a franchise guy worth the #3 pick.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Slight quibble here...


Jeremiah 100% has a lot of sources and is generally on the pulse of the draft. His opinion carries a lot of weight.Kiper and (especially) Zierlien don't really have that many sources and I would take their opinion with a giant grain of salt

Kiper has a lot of sources, it's why he generally has graded out as having some of the most accurate final mocks. Zierlien was talking with Jeremiah and noted he directly heard from a evaluator in Mobile that he thought Maye might slide.

Right but how does that get the Bears Drake Maye which was what Nate Tice posited? If the Commanders say no thanks we’ll stay at 2 the Bears are now picking 5th or something and don’t get a chance at Maye.

Once the Bears offer the Commanders #1 they show their cards, they don’t want Caleb which means if the Bears stay at 1 the Commanders know either they will take a QB they didn’t want or they will take something else and the Commanders can get him at 2.

So your argument is what, game this out... WAS is sitting at #2.
Do you....
1. never engage CHI on a deal for #1, and just don't get your preferred QB?
Or
2 you call CHI say "We want #1 here is our offer" and if they show any interest you pull the deal?

You are coming at this from a place that makes no sense because you are assuming that WAS both has perfect knowledge of what the Bears will do, and that WAS doesn't want Caleb Williams that much. They can't have the former, and the latter seems unlikely based on their actions.

 

[DJnVa]

I am all for Calen or Drake, but ye old Sosh Demizens have convinced me that JD is not a franchise guy worth the #3 pick.

Has there really been that much anti-JD stuff here? I've seen some stuff critical of him, but also seen if of the other 2.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Nah. AVP is a former NFL QB. McAdoo is reportedly great at QB evaluation. The Pats are going QB at #3 unless one of the top 3 blows his knee out at his pro day. I think they want Maye, who's a good fit for the offense AVP ran last year, but will take Daniels if he's the guy there. We already heard Mayo's quote, which I bet slipped out, about taking someone at an important position at #3. They're not moving. There's no need to talk about any of the QBs, because if their scouting is happy with any of them, they're set.

I don’t think Mayo’s quote really means anything, even less so considering it was made before pro days, combine, all the additional film work. He said “important position” which could really mean any of their glaring holes.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Has there really been that much anti-JD stuff here? I've seen some stuff critical of him, but also seen if of the other 2.

I think there are two primary camps of “anti-Daniels” folks

People who are very familiar with him, like his skills but see him as too frail/too much of an injury risk

People who are less familiar with him and haven’t watched a lot of his 2022 and 2023 games back to back. He was a general consensus mid round type guy had he declared last year, went back and cleaned up almost all the things that he had to work on. Still has flaws of course but he showed a huge amount of development in his game. But I think people see him as a one year wonder or a guy who benefits from having Nabers and Thomas (as opposed to being a big reason those guys are 1st round guys)

Other than his size, there aren’t too many obvious flaws in his game as far as QB prospects go and he’s as much of a home run/big play guy as we’ve seen coming out of school in recent years. I’m surprised there’s still doubt that he’s a premium prospect worthy of a top pick. Obviously still a good chance he busts but his ceiling, if he stays on the field, is insanely high and that alone makes him worth a gamble in the very early part of the draft.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I am growing more and more comfortable with the Pats taking Harrison at #3, with my dream scenario being they also trade a 2nd and 4th for Justin Fields.

I am all for Calen or Drake, but ye old Sosh Demizens have convinced me that JD is not a franchise guy worth the #3 pick.

I think a 2 is too high, unless it's part of a contingency. I'd go something like a 3rd and later pick swap, with potential to go higher based on incentives.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think a 2 is too high, unless it's part of a contingency. I'd go something like a 3rd and later pick swap, with potential to go higher based on incentives.

A 2nd and a 4th for Fields and drafting MHJ sounds like a nightmare. You have a rushing WIP QB, a very good (hopefully) WR, no depth of young players at all and a disaster on the line likely.
If you traded a 2nd and 4th for Fields you basically have to trade down and take a tackle round 1, otherwise you're building a much much worse version of CHI the last 2 years.

 

[jtn46]

Kiper has a lot of sources, it's why he generally has graded out as having some of the most accurate final mocks. Zierlien was talking with Jeremiah and noted he directly heard from a evaluator in Mobile that he thought Maye might slide.





So your argument is what, game this out... WAS is sitting at #2.
Do you....
1. never engage CHI on a deal for #1, and just don't get your preferred QB?
Or
2 you call CHI say "We want #1 here is our offer" and if they show any interest you pull the deal?

You are coming at this from a place that makes no sense because you are assuming that WAS both has perfect knowledge of what the Bears will do, and that WAS doesn't want Caleb Williams that much. They can't have the former, and the latter seems unlikely based on their actions.

You can look at the Panthers for why I think the Commanders stick at 2. If they pick a QB they adore at 2 and he busts so be it, happens to everyone. It’s a bad pick. Make a better one next year. If they trade next year’s first and #2 and Williams busts or tears an ACL while the next best QB by their evaluation succeeds, they screwed up 2 drafts. It’s too cute. At least in the Panthers defense they just picked the wrong guy, at 9 they weren’t going to get a crack at Stroud either. The Commanders can pick a great QB prospect at 2.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I think there are two primary camps of “anti-Daniels” folks

People who are very familiar with him, like his skills but see him as too frail/too much of an injury risk

People who are less familiar with him and haven’t watched a lot of his 2022 and 2023 games back to back. He was a general consensus mid round type guy had he declared last year, went back and cleaned up almost all the things that he had to work on. Still has flaws of course but he showed a huge amount of development in his game. But I think people see him as a one year wonder or a guy who benefits from having Nabers and Thomas (as opposed to being a big reason those guys are 1st round guys)

Other than his size, there aren’t too many obvious flaws in his game as far as QB prospects go and he’s as much of a home run/big play guy as we’ve seen coming out of school in recent years. I’m surprised there’s still doubt that he’s a premium prospect worthy of a top pick. Obviously still a good chance he busts but his ceiling, if he stays on the field, is insanely high and that alone makes him worth a gamble in the very early part of the draft.

The guy has no arm. He looks like Mac in most of the tape I've seen. Just throwing rainbows all over the field. NFL DBs are going to feast on that kid. The only franchise QB in this draft is Williams. Every one else is a maybe.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

The guy has no arm. He looks like Mac in most of the tape I've seen. Just throwing rainbows all over the field. NFL DBs are going to feast on that kid. The only franchise QB in this draft is Williams. Every one else is a maybe.

while I would agree his arm strength isn’t elite, I would question how much you watched him if you think he just throws “rainbows all over the field” or that he looks like Mac in any way shape or form.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

A 2nd and a 4th for Fields and drafting MHJ sounds like a nightmare. You have a rushing WIP QB, a very good (hopefully) WR, no depth of young players at all and a disaster on the line likely.
If you traded a 2nd and 4th for Fields you basically have to trade down and take a tackle round 1, otherwise you're building a much much worse version of CHI the last 2 years.

Yeah Fields had a solid OL (especially at tackle) and DJ Moore and looked awful most of the time

why is there any expectation that a worse OL and Harrison will make him worth a 2nd and 4th?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Daniels has solid arm strength, not great, but he has way more zip to the outside than Mac, especially off-platform, and given his elite mobility that's big.
My concerns about Daniels are mostly about his use of the middle of the field and some of his throw/no throw decision making.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

while I would agree his arm strength isn’t elite, I would question how much you watched him if you think he just throws “rainbows all over the field” or that he looks like Mac in any way shape or form.

Daniels has solid arm strength, not great, but he has way more zip to the outside than Mac, especially off-platform, and given his elite mobility that's big.
My concerns about Daniels are mostly about his use of the middle of the field and some of his throw/no throw decision making.

I saw little to no zip. Kids got a noodle. His running ability is next level but that's really all he has. He played with elite talent. He is going to struggle mightily in the NFL.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I saw little to no zip. Kids got a noodle. His running ability is next level but that's really all he has. He played with elite talent. He is going to struggle mightily in the NFL.

can you cite what games you saw where he demonstrated a “noodle” arm?

The played with elite talent thing is irrelevant. Elite talent doesn’t make a guy’s ball placement NFL caliber. There weren’t a lot of throws which were bad and Thomas and Nabers were making special plays on. Plenty of good NFL QB’s played with elite talent in college and turned out just fine.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't know about a noodle arm. Watching his highlights, holy cow he throws an incredible deep ball. And obviously he's an unbelievable runner with the ball.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Fields is more likely going to take just a 4th than a 2nd and a 4th. I'm guessing, though, it'll be a 3rd.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I saw little to no zip. Kids got a noodle. His running ability is next level but that's really all he has. He played with elite talent. He is going to struggle mightily in the NFL.

Looking at the 2021 draft, the two worst quarterbacks came from schools with less elite talent in Wilson and Lance. Lance was so bad that even San Fran couldn't make a QB out of him. I'm not sure why "played with great players" belongs in the con column when it invariably is paired with "played against great players". Weird take honestly.