Would the simple in that case not be to try to move up, hoping that Chicago or Washington sees Daniels as a scheme fit for what they want to do on offense and interested in other assets?
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
I need to correct you on the RB summary. That trade was criticized by many at the time and a bunch of experts and non experts were saying it was the 49ers who were fleeced.
Also, CMC could barely stay healthy at that point, and as soon as I celebrated the trade with a bunch of friends they all came back with “he’s getting hurt on his first game”.
But yeah, they have found a lot of pieces to build a hell of a team.
What is interesting about this draft class is Caleb and Maye were more heralded last year than they are this year. Caleb to a lesser extent but neither showed much progression from last season to this season and Maye regressed a bit. Most prognosticators/draftniks had those two over Stroud and Young at this point last year. Daniels wasn't even an afterthought despite being older than both Stroud and Young.
It will be very interesting to see if Daniels runs at the combine, my suspicion is NFL teams are more concerned with his weight so he will bulk up like Bryce did last year and opt not to run. If he can weigh in around 218 and still run well that would be great to see and put him in the Lamar Jackson body type category. If he is weighing sub 210 at 6'3"+ that is a red flag for me as even solidly built running QBs, (Fields, AR, Hurts) have missed time due to injuries and Daniels is not going to have a similar BMI to those 3.
Can't see WAS drafting Daniels and risking RG3 part 2.
It will be very interesting to see if Daniels runs at the combine, my suspicion is NFL teams are more concerned with his weight so he will bulk up like Bryce did last year and opt not to run. If he can weigh in around 218 and still run well that would be great to see and put him in the Lamar Jackson body type category. If he is weighing sub 210 at 6'3"+ that is a red flag for me as even solidly built running QBs, (Fields, AR, Hurts) have missed time due to injuries and Daniels is not going to have a similar BMI to those 3.
Can't see WAS drafting Daniels and risking RG3 part 2.
I think that the concerns about Daniels at 210 are overblown. He's basically the same weight as Williams and Penix and heavier than McCarthy. Anyone can put on 5-10 good pounds in a year with NFL trainers. The only guy that's a real outlier size wise in this draft is Maye.
Build yourself an OL to protect your rookie because you need to keep the kid alive anyway. Then it won't matter if it takes six months of cheeseburgers to build him up. Same story if the pick is Williams or McCarthy, not just Daniels.
Build yourself an OL to protect your rookie because you need to keep the kid alive anyway. Then it won't matter if it takes six months of cheeseburgers to build him up. Same story if the pick is Williams or McCarthy, not just Daniels.
His build is a bit light, but I don't think weight matters. From what I have seen, sometimes I he runs smart like Lamar or Mahomes, sometimes he runs like Cam or Allen. Even Cam only lasted so long that way. I think getting more consistent on making good decisions is more important than size for running QBs
I didn’t miss Minnesota. I think they’re going to re-sign Cousins.
I addressed the point about teams trading up. I just don’t think a team will need to trade up to 3 if they want Daniels. If they feel that strongly, 4 or 5 is high enough.
Agreed on all of this, but my point is that they're all a bit light, except Maye. They're all college QBs. Who gives a shit if they're 208 or 215. It really doesn't matter at opening day. Brady was an inch taller at the combine and a pound heavier than I have seen Daniels measured to date. 210ish is a pretty common weight for a 21yo QB, and five pounds either way isn't really a differentiator.
You are correct. Daniels or any young QB needs to be smart and avoid hard contact in the beginning. Seems something that coaches can coach.
The other QBs aren't running for 1K yards though that is the big difference. Size is a lot less important when 90% of the contact you take is behind the LOS. Daniels takes way too much contact for someone sub 220lbs. Perhaps that can be coached out of him but if not he won't be long for the league.
I will say frame and age make a difference. Daniels is 23 and has added 55-60 pounds during his time in college, he doesn't have particularly wide shoulders, he's probably much closer to maxed out than a Brady type was.
But yeah I generally agree that weight isn't a massive concern. He could weigh 240 and it would still mostly about the hits he takes. Plenty of big pocket QBs get hurt every year.
RG3 also tore his ACL in college when being a dual-threat was his thing, and then Shanahan had him out there in the playoffs, his rookie year, under center AFTER it was obvious he re-tore it.
The comparison doesn't really fit unless you think the HC is going to commit gross malpractice. Again.
Yep, this is where I disagree with the people who want to draft MHJ or an OT. Sure, given history, MJH seems much less likely to be a bust than QB3. But to the extent that you need a QB who is That Guy to compete in the NFL, the proper calculus isn’t the probability of QB3 being The Guy versus MJH being great, it’s the probability of QB3 being The Guy versus the probability of finding The Guy by some other means.
I don’t see another strategy that comes close to as likely to find That Guy, so I think you’d have to be really, really sure that Daniels is going to be a bust not to spend the pick on him. It’s not a sure thing, but compared to the alternatives for finding a good QB, it seems like the best chance they have..
I think we overrate how much running QBs get hurt compared to other QBs, or how often they get hurt on runs.
THis year's major QB injuries:
Herbert- listed 6'6" 236lbs, mobile but not a running QB... injured on a throw
Rodgers- listed 6'2" 223 not that mobile anymore, injured on sack in the pocket
Burrow- listed 6'4" 215, not a runner, injured on sack in pocket (also had another season ender in 2020 on a sack)
Watson- listed 6'3" 223 mobile but not a runner, injured twice on hits while throwing
Daniel Jones- listed 6'5" 230, runner... but injured on a dropback (metlife turf got him)
COusins- listed 6'3" 205, not a runner... non-contact dropback achilles pop
Richardson- listed 6'4" 244, runner.. injured on run play.
THis year's major QB injuries:
Herbert- listed 6'6" 236lbs, mobile but not a running QB... injured on a throw
Rodgers- listed 6'2" 223 not that mobile anymore, injured on sack in the pocket
Burrow- listed 6'4" 215, not a runner, injured on sack in pocket (also had another season ender in 2020 on a sack)
Watson- listed 6'3" 223 mobile but not a runner, injured twice on hits while throwing
Daniel Jones- listed 6'5" 230, runner... but injured on a dropback (metlife turf got him)
COusins- listed 6'3" 205, not a runner... non-contact dropback achilles pop
Richardson- listed 6'4" 244, runner.. injured on run play.
That's an assumption though (which is what we are all doing).
A team that feels that strongly isn't going to risk another team engaging NE at #3.
The bigger thing even than that is.... nobody can tell if NE is going to take Daniels, and won't know it until NE turns in the card.
You want Daniels (or I guess Maye) you have to go to NE with your best offer for #3, because you have to make it more valuable for them to trade down than just take him.
Teams who want QBs have to assume other teams want them too. You can't just hope NE passes and trade to #5 or #6 or whatever. I think the SF tradeup for Lance is perhaps the most instructive. They wanted the 3rd QB, could they have traded to #4 and hope nobody trades to #3... sure, but if someone does they're screwed. Could they trade to #6 hoping ATL doesn't take their guy and CIN stays put (had Burrow)... sure, but that also greatly increased the chances they miss their QB. For the same reason NE is likely to take the QB, if a team thinks Daniels is a franchise guy (and plenty of reporting that there are teams that do already) then getting him is far more important that trying to finesse the lowest price moveup that might get him. You go to the spot you're guaranteed to get him and call it a good deal.
That trade SF made should be a cautionary tale.
The hiring of Kliff Kingsbury in Washington could however change the game when it comes to Daniels. If they aren’t able to trade up to 1 and Chicago takes Caleb, I believe he would be more interested in taking Daniels to run his offense than he would Drake Maye. That would be a home run for the Pats who IMO would sprint to the stage with Maye’s name on the card.
Not really, they got their QB and wouldn't have if they didn't trade up. That they failed in their QB evaluation and/or development has no bearing on whether they needed to trade up to get him. If your scouting staff screws up, or your QB coaching screws up... well that's tough, but all that tells a future team is "hey, do a better job evaluating and developing QBs"
I could live with that. Because you can probably still trade down further and accumulate more picks and then draft McCarthy and pick up a vet to absorb the hits for a year. You can use the top of the second to grab an OT and WR.
The thing is, if they think McCarthy is a franchise QB (more so than QB3), why play around with maneuvering the board and risk missing out on him?
I don’t think there’s any realistic value that a team could offer me that would bridge the gap between getting “the” guy at QB and “a” guy.
And if you don’t think McCarthy has franchise QB ability, is it really worth investing a first round pick in him? You’re basically making a 3 year commitment and passing up other potential building block pieces any time you take a QB in round 1.
It’s rare, albeit not unheard of, for a 1st round QB to get fewer than 3 years of starting opportunity (Tebow and Rosen being obvious recent examples) and for a team in rebuild with a rookie head coach, you need to either swing for a true franchise guy or take a shot in Day 2/3 and move on quickly (next year round 1) if he doesn’t show enough where you’re confident he’s the answer
Yeah my thing has been.... if you think there is a franchise QB in this draft you take him at #3. If you don't.... don't waste a day 1 or 2 pick on a QB, you want to take a 4th-7th round flier on some skills.... sure, but taking a guy you don't think will be a franhise QB in rd 2 or 3.... that's usually just a wasted pick.
I think that there's a non-zero chance that Fields could be good in the right situation, but trading a third for a guy with one year left on his rookie deal is insanity unless you're 1000% sure that he's the dude.
Fair, you have control for more than one. Only one year is cheap though. And if he's not the dude, you threw away a third and still have a crapload of holes to fill in the offense (and a few on defense through attrition).
Actually thinking about it, I wonder if a team might do a short extension instead, not Jordan Love level since he's shown more, but maybe something like 2 years $38-40M with some voids to lower the cap hit. Might make more sense for both sides than exercising the option that'll be around... 23.5M?
It could be structured to mitigate downside risk but lock in an extra year of control at a decent rate. Not saying that I'd do it, but I can see the idea.
Patriots mock draft 1.0: Trying to fix the offense with a QB in the first round - The Athletic
Article has them going after Patrick Paul, OT in round 2 and Roman Wilson, WR in round 3. 4th round is Cade Stover, TE, and 5th round is DB Cam Hart. The 6th round is UNH RB Dylan Laube, and finishing up is Edge Khalid Duke.
Basically you add some upside, in an extra below market year if he develops as you think, and if he doesn't it lets you spread out the cap hit.
If this was offered to Fields it would be interesting to see if he took it. He gets a little more money (depending on the guarantees) but also defers his own free agency. (Not that many successful QBs actually get on the free agency market.). Made sense for Love given his overall team and coaching situation. Other guys might look at Daniel Jones and think they can get a bigger bag without putting up incredible numbers.
If the Pats pull off that exact draft, I'll need to contact my doctor after 4 hours.
I'd love this draft but I'm not sure about Stover / Hart lasting until the 4th / 5th rounds. Also, Roman Wilson and Dylan Laube had strong performances in the Senior Bowl and will likely be moving up on some draft boards.
yeah, that is like a whose who of buzzy risers (except Paul) and all need positions. I think Roman Wilson will go in the 2nd though unless he had a bad combine.
Wilson? I don't think he's slot only, he was working outside and winning against guys like Quinyon Mitchell at the Senior Bowl and he supposedly is going to run sub 4.4, he seems like a faster Tyler Lockett. Lockett started in the slot, but he's been primarily an outside WR for a while now.
I watched a number of UNH games in the last few years, and Laube stood out in every game I saw. I was at the 9/30 game vs Towson and he was unreal after getting injured in the first half and sitting the majority of it. He came out in the 3rd and lit it up, I swear he took a punt or kick back for a TD that was called back during the game as well. Extremely shifty, quick to hit he holes and accelerated on a dime. It was him and then everyone else on the field that day, which was even more apparent when he was out for most of the 1st half and beginning of the 2nd.
Word. I fundamentally agree with j44thor that we should be looking for an X with the high WR pick. Roman is absolutely an X. He might be the only obvious one left by 68, if he even is.
He lined up 60% of the time in the slot at MI. Guess he could contribute some outside as well, perhaps similar to how NE would use Bourne. Tough to gauge MI skill position players since they won with an overpowering OL and Defense. Didn't throw much and could basically run at will. Wilson had just over100 catches his 4yrs in college.
He had a nice YPC and has separation ability and top end speed. He changes direction and throttles up and down well. Nothing against McCarthy, who might be a player, but it's not uncommon for colleges to leverage their stud receivers more inside when QBs at that level aren't as strong as pros at throwing darts outside the numbers.
You really need to look at the list of the top 12 QBs. This isn't 2020, there aren't a bunch of guys on the other side of 35 there. If you're lucky the guy drafted at #3 will become an average QB. That's not a "franchise QB".
There’s probably a level you could drop. I think tankathon has McCarthy 12 to Denver; sounds possible.
I don't even get what your argument here is? The age of other QBs in the league has no impact on the quality of any other QB, it's not like QB talent/performance is a shared pool.
As to whather the guy at #3 will be average... could be, on the other hand, all 3 are probably better prospects coming out than Stroud was last year and he jumped into that top 12 right away.
If anything the number of good sub 30 QBs in the league is a stronger argument to take the best QB you can in the draft because you probably have no chance to compete without one.
Ignoring pick #3 for a minute, I’d like to see a rb in the 3rd or 4th round. Bucky Irving or Jaylen Wright are appealing with only having watched a couple games of each.
I had previously been looking for 2-3 receivers but think 1 higher end pick on receiver and a late flyer makes more sense with more draft picks for other positions of need like backup/part time rb and tight end.
I had previously been looking for 2-3 receivers but think 1 higher end pick on receiver and a late flyer makes more sense with more draft picks for other positions of need like backup/part time rb and tight end.
I mean that there are some pretty good QBs in the league right now. And they're not going anywhere any time soon.
38-40M total? Or AAV?
I think whatever team acquires Fields has to look at is as a binary choice - does he break out and is our guy for the foreseeable future, or does he continue to be what he is? In the case where he doesn’t break out, I wouldn’t want any guaranteed money on the books for 2025. If he does break out, I’m fine franchise tagging him and working out a massive contract for him.
I’d love Ray Davis on day 3 as a do it all backup RB
total. His 5th year option is 23-24M, so you replace that with something like 2/40, that way if he gets cut or traded after year 5 he made more money, if not he got underpaid year 6 but he's likely signing a nice big extension anyway at that point if he's still the starter.
But if the Pats like McCarthy (in this scenario) enough to take him 12th or whatever via trade down, you have to assume he’s in play somewhere before that.
It’s so hard to project the non elite QB prospects. We’ve seen guys like Levis, Willis and Ridder (and Hooker) slide much later than many “experts” projected. Lamar Jackson and Bridgewater to the end of round 1. But then you have guys like Ponder, Weeden (ha) go much higher than they should have (as prospects and in retrospect)
it’s tough to project because the first half of round 1 usually has a lot of bad (and often QB needy) teams who might think it’s too high for a “non premium” QB and the second half of round 1 is playoff teams looking for that final piece of the puzzle to get them into the Super Bowl. So you get these weird slides sometimes.
Regardless, if you’re taking a QB in round 1, he’s a 3 year commitment usually and you don’t want to tie yourself to a guy who you don’t believe can be the franchise guy. And if you do believe that, trading around hoping to grab extra picks and gambling that nobody else loves him the way you do is highly risky and not worth it. It wouldn’t shock me if a 4th QB went top 8 and the Pats IMO simply cannot go into the draft with pick 3 and exit without either a potential franchise QB or Marvin Harrison (who I don’t really want but they need a true potential superstar). If you trade down to 11 hoping to get your preferred QB let’s say and someone jumps you for McCarthy (or whichever), Harrison/Nabers/Alt are all off the board, you’re screwed.
Generally speaking, moving around and taking lots of bites at the proverbial apple is a great strategy. I think it fails when you’re in need of a true superstar at a critical position.
The one QB that should be available in the 2nd and possibly the 3rd rd that intrigues me is Spencer Rattler. He played on a pretty bad SC team and was competitive against some very good competition. According to most scouting reports he has plus arm talent and can make all the throws both in the pocket and off platform. He isn't a runner like Daniels but can make plays with his legs and could be a day 2/3 steal. If he had played in OR or WAS I suspect he would be getting a lot more hype especially considering most reports had him outplaying Bo Nix and Penix throughout the week of practice at the Senior Bowl where he was the MVP.
It would be a bold move but if you could drop a few spots from 3 to say 8 and pick up a future first or multiple seconds and still get a top 2 T or top 3 WR and come back with a T or WR plus Rattler in the 2nd that could fill a lot of holes quickly.
It would be a bold move but if you could drop a few spots from 3 to say 8 and pick up a future first or multiple seconds and still get a top 2 T or top 3 WR and come back with a T or WR plus Rattler in the 2nd that could fill a lot of holes quickly.
I am not sure what your argument is.
Before I thought it was that you should never take a QB in the top 5 because of Brock Purdy. But with this post I am just confused.
An MHJ/Nix first-round prediction
https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-falcons-patriots-make-trades-to-land-qbs
https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-falcons-patriots-make-trades-to-land-qbs