Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

rguilmar

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And the best way to do that is take one of the first QB’s off the board. In the last 20 years, QB’s drafted in rounds 2-7 have a 4% chance of being an above average QB (going by 90+ passer rating but the numbers are similar using ANY/A and other metrics). The success rate in the first round is about 30%

Brady is obviously a unicorn. But the vast vast majority of non-elite QB prospects aren’t playable NFL QB’s.

And it’s not just Mahomes. A “mid tier FA” (which isn’t really a thing at QB) simply isn’t going to be able to consistently beat Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Stroud, Herbert, Burrow, Rodgers etc.

More often than not in the NFL, the team with the better QB wins (or more accurately, the QB who plays the best). Not always of course. But the majority of the time.

Your defense might be able to shut down Mahomes or Allen. You might get your guy on a hot streak for a few games (Flacco, Foles, etc). But the chances of winning 10+ games and 4 consecutive playoff games facing QBs better than yours are tiny.

There simply isn’t a realistic approach to building a consistent winning team that doesn’t consist of having a top QB. And hoping that the 7th or 8th QB off the board or a Sam Darnold, Drew Lock or Jacoby Brissett can guide a team to double digit wins is like buying a lottery ticket in hopes of paying your mortgage.
I agree with your overall point that the best way to build a contender is to have strong QB. However, that simply means getting the right quarterback, not the highest rated one left in the draft. The vast majority of of QBs on playoff teams were drafted in the first round, but very few were picked as high as #3. I realize that this eliminates the likes of Carson Palmer, but it was a criteria used upthread:

Pick- Player(s)
1- Goff, Mayfield, Stafford (interestingly none of them with the team that drafted them)
2- Stroud
5- Tua
7- Allen
10- Mahomes
13- Watson (or are we giving this to Flacco at 18?)
20- Pickett
26- Love
32- Lamar
53- Hurts
135-Dak
Mr. Irrelevant- Purdy

Lamar Jackson was considered a second round talent that the Ravens traded up to get in the first to gain that fifth year of control. In short, yes a team likely needs a top QB to be successful, but not necessarily with a top 3 pick. If the team rates one of the second tier (Maye, Daniels, maybe McCarthy) then they should do what they can to get that player. If that means trading up, fine. If that means trading back (in the case of McCarthy) that's fine too while also picking up additional picks. Interesting that #3 overall pick in the 2018 draft was mentioned as a player to avoid.

I certainly would not expect any of these guys to be Mahomes. I think you're looking for a guy that can grow to be Top 10 in the league. That gives you a reasonable chance, along with a good supporting roster, to get to the playoffs consistently and go on a run. If you're lucky he gets to be Top 5, like Burrow, Allen, Jackson, etc. Three SBs by age 28 is definitely a pipe dream.

As for Detroit and SF, I know they get cited a lot, but neither passed over top QBs in a draft like this one. The closest comparison is 2021, where SF traded the farm to move up. It would be basically unprecedented for a team in the Pats' position to not draft one of these QBs.
That SF trade doesn't look great historically. They traded up from 12 to get Trey Lance. Lance was the 3rd QB taken in a draft where QBs were taken with the first three picks. Obviously things worked out well, but man would the 49ers like to have those picks that they traded, which included #12 pick Micah Parsons. The 2021 draft is instructive in that one QB prospect (Trevor Lawrence) was rated well above the other two (Lance and Zach Wilson). The previous time picks 1-3 were QBs was 1999 (Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith) produced one great QB as well in those three picks. None of this is necessarily predictive of anything, but these are the things that I imagine keeps the Pats front office awake at night. It's possible that they end up having to choose between players who end up all being duds.

After watching 7 minutes of McCarthy highlights and 5 minutes of Daniels highlights I come to the following conclusions:

Daniels is a truly gifted runner who would probably only have Jackson as a peer.
Daniels has a nice touch and accuracy on deep balls, which was particularly beneficial given that he had great receivers who were open deep a lot.
He doesn't throw on the run particularly well, and doesn't rifle the ball over the middle into tight windows.

McCarthy is pretty fast himself, and seems able to pick up some tough yards.
He's got a cannon and can fit it into tight windows.
He throws well on the run and usually looks to throw before running.

If Brady taught us anything it's that a guy who is fanatically dedicated to improving and winning may end up being the better QB. This has got to be one of the tougher things to evaluate, but I sure hope it's at the top of Mayo/Wolf's list.

I'm on team Mac II.
I think I'm personally slightly higher on Daniels but McCarthy is picking up steam. It looks like teams and evaluators are getting a chance to look at his film and are coming away very impressed. The offense he was in gave the sense that they were trying to limit McCarthy or prevent him from being exposed, but now it's looking like that's just how Harbaugh wants his team to play. I don't really care which of the (likely) three QB candidates that they pick, assuming Williams is not really within reach, as long as they pick the right one.

One of Daniels’ real plusses is his improvement year over year. From the outside, he definitely looks like a guy that puts in the work and sees results on the field. Of course there are lots of compounding factors and touting Daniels’ improvement isn’t a knock on anyone else.
Some people seem to consider the rise of Daniels this year a plus (myself included) because it shows that he has improved and is likely still on an upward trajectory compared to Drake Maye who was relatively the same player as last season. Others prefer to see multiple seasons of high end play like Maye has had.

Players develop as players and mature as young men on non-linear paths and in non-predictive ways. The hard part if figuring where a young man is, both as a player and as a person, and where they can reasonably hope to end up. They will also want to consider fit into the potential system as well. I know Alex Van Pelt says he will be flexible with the offense he installs, but there will be players who will work better with him than others. Part of the problem with the Bryce Young pick last year was that Carolina's offense wasn't really suited to his strengths at all, and probably did a great job of exposing his weaknesses. The team will have access to much more info than we can ever hope to have to make these very difficult calls.
 

Bowser

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It looks like the defender is still facing McCarthy as he's releasing the ball. Maybe he's reading something in the guy's body language or eyes. If so, that's impressive.

Edit: I guess the defender's head is turned as the ball is released ... but did JJ see that?
 

Cellar-Door

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Oh man, Benkert is like if Chris Simms was less self aware. He's the guy who comped Drake Maye to Mason Rudolph with less arm talent. He's the worst.
 

peeves5478

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Apr 8, 2006
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Ballsy, tight window for sure. Hard to tell if he was lucky or if he saw that the DB had his back turned and he had an opportunity.
It looks like the defender is still facing McCarthy as he's releasing the ball. Maybe he's reading something in the guy's body language or eyes. If so, that's impressive.

Edit: I guess the defender's head is turned as the ball is released ... but did JJ see that?
Yeah that’s a bad decision with a great outcome.
He actually did film study on the DB and knew he wouldn’t turn around.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sE-EJZMUL9I
 

Cellar-Door

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He actually did film study on the DB and knew he wouldn’t turn around.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sE-EJZMUL9I
Yeah, that sounds awesome, except in the NFL you never know when something you saw on tape is also something the DB coach saw on tape and worked on all week. Making throws based on a tendency and hoping the guy doesn't break it is a really bad idea against pros.
College tape is weird because it's loaded with good throws that you should never try in the NFL, and parsing whether a guy can identify when they get to the next level what will and won't work is a tough thing.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, that sounds awesome, except in the NFL you never know when something you saw on tape is also something the DB coach saw on tape and worked on all week.
Kyler Murray agrees. Why study tape when dudes can change their tendencies ;)
 

Cellar-Door

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Kyler Murray agrees. Why study tape when dudes can change their tendencies ;)
Lol

But yeah the point wasn't that film study isn't important, it's that you don't want to make throws where you have no control over the outcome because success vwrs total failure is based on assuming the DB will screw up.
 

snowmanny

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When I posted that tight window JJ throw against Ohio State, I meant to say that as a fan I had a “Noooo!” reaction, like the ones T4T had posted.

He did hit a bunch of tight windows down the stretch. I have no idea how scouts project that stuff.
 

Cellar-Door

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I would hope they project that well.
To hit that type of throw you need:
Anticipation
Accuracy
Strong arm

those seem like decent traits for a successful QB.
Yeah I think they see the velocity and placement and say they can teach decisions. It's things like across the body hangers and such that are bigger concerns in terms of "only in college" throws
 

DJnVa

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With Mac gone there is zero doubt in my mind that we're going QB at 3.

I was pretty convinced either way, but now that there's 1 QB left in the room, this team isn't rolling with Brissett/Zappe next season.
 

slamminsammya

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Oh man, Benkert is like if Chris Simms was less self aware. He's the guy who comped Drake Maye to Mason Rudolph with less arm talent. He's the worst.
He makes a lot of unintentionally funny Madden videos where he explains how a pro QB would make reads based on the offense and calls pro style plays and then turns out to be kinda not very good at Madden.
 

GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
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As a strategic move, assuming the Pats are going to sign a veteran QB, they should sign Brissett and make behind the scenes noise that you are not enthralled with whoever the QB is that is going to be available at # 3.

Maybe spread the word that you are in for a mid to late round QB.

Then start pressing Harrison. Meet with him, visit with him, make it seem like he is your guy at #3.

See if Arizona bites at 4. They want Harrison. If they buy the narrative they may pay with a premium pick to go from 4 to 3
 

Cellar-Door

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As a strategic move, assuming the Pats are going to sign a veteran QB, they should sign Brissett and make behind the scenes noise that you are not enthralled with whoever the QB is that is going to be available at # 3.

Maybe spread the word that you are in for a mid to late round QB.

Then start pressing Harrison. Meet with him, visit with him, make it seem like he is your guy at #3.

See if Arizona bites at 4. They want Harrison. If they buy the narrative they may pay with a premium pick to go from 4 to 3
I see zero chance Arizona would trade up. Not sure where the "they are obsessed with Harrison" talk came from. If NE actually took MHJ, Arizona would say "oh my god thank you" then trade to 6 for a fortune to let NYG take their QB and snap up Nabers (or amusingly... maybe still get MHJ because not sure Harbaugh takes him 5)
 

DJnVa

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I see zero chance Arizona would trade up. Not sure where the "they are obsessed with Harrison" talk came from. If NE actually took MHJ, Arizona would say "oh my god thank you" then trade to 6 for a fortune to let NYG take their QB and snap up Nabers (or amusingly... maybe still get MHJ because not sure Harbaugh takes him 5)
Be kinda tough for them to get MHJ in this scenario since it's based on NE taking him at 3. ;)

But yeah, Arizona ain't biting, because they'll get their guy at #4 or get a haul. And there's a non-zero chance that NE gets burned if AZ turns around and deals back from #3 to #6.

We're thinking too hard. Just take the QB.
 

Cellar-Door

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Be kinda tough for them to get MHJ in this scenario since it's based on NE taking him at 3. ;)

But yeah, Arizona ain't biting, because they'll get their guy at #4 or get a haul. And there's a non-zero chance that NE gets burned if AZ turns around and deals back from #3 to #6.

We're thinking too hard. Just take the QB.
lol yeah brainfart there. but yeah, if the Patriots trade back it's with a team that wants a QB.
 

Traut

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We're thinking too hard. Just take the QB.
Exactly this.

Half the fun of following a football team is speculating on what they will/should do but this one is objectively easy.

There’s no other real option here than taking the QB.

All of the top 3 guys check enough boxes that they could be the guy.

While certainly it’s a crapshoot, it’s one you have to play when you have the 3rd pick and need a QB.

You may miss on the pick. Such is life. But if you don’t get the QB, you are forever doomed in this league.
 

Zososoxfan

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Exactly this.

Half the fun of following a football team is speculating on what they will/should do but this one is objectively easy.

There’s no other real option here than taking the QB.

All of the top 3 guys check enough boxes that they could be the guy.

While certainly it’s a crapshoot, it’s one you have to play when you have the 3rd pick and need a QB.

You may miss on the pick. Such is life. But if you don’t get the QB, you are forever doomed in this league.
QFT. I think MHJ is incredible and could be a top NFL WR soon, but the Pats should roll the dice on one the QBs this year. Whether it's at #3 or snagging someone later in the first round, they hafta come outta the draft with a legit QB prospect. As a Michigan homer, I'm very high on JJ but there's plenty of reasonable reasons why someone would prefer Daniels.