Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020

NoXInNixon

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Teams will have an entire off-season to figure out how to defend Morant and Clarke. This draft looks weak, so a top 4 pick isn't likely going to make a huge impact next season. This off-season is going to be short, which will impact young players more than veterans.

Put all that together, and I would bet against Memphis making the playoffs next year. Don't know how many ping pong balls the Celtics will get, but with a flattened lottery I'd gladly take my chances at a top five pick next year over a pick in the teens this year.
 

the moops

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Fair enough point that they don't always progress in linear fashion (see "Sacramento Kings"), but Morant looks like he's going to be a game-changer type of talent, and he's only 20. Not sure I want to see what they can do with him plus a top 4 pick, plus everyone else they have ... but I guess there is a dice-roll element to all of this, and key Grizzlies could get injured next year, or ...
You always roll the dice on a chance at an unprotected pick when the alternative is a # 15 pick in a not so great draft. It really doesn't matter thought. Cetics will be picking in the 14-17 slot and in this draft, I am not sure there is a material difference between any of those picks
 

nighthob

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I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what we're rooting for with the Grizzlies. To drop out of the playoffs and be a lottery team: sure, I get that. Obviously it would be great if they fell as far as possible, which probably isn't that far with the shortened schedule. But do we really want them to win the right lottery balls to pick near the top? If that's the case, the pick doesn't convey (as it's top six protected), and the Celts have an unprotected pick next year, but then what are you looking at? A team with a bunch of talented young players, including Morant and a newly added top lottery pick, who will be expected to do even better (barring some bad luck)? That doesn't seem like a desirable outcome.
This is a roleplayer draft so the fourth pick isn’t turning them into the new Mavericks. Plus the west will likely not be ravaged by injury next year, so the Warriors and Trailblazers will be playing at full strength in 20-21. There are other young teams that will also be making improvements, So the odds are that the Grizzlies, even with a top four pick, are no better than the 10th-12th best team in the West next year, and a mid to late lottery pick next year is better than a mid first this year.
 

CSteinhardt

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I'm really not convinced this is going to be a weak draft. There are a lot of prospects who would have been really helped by the tournament(s) and where the evaluation is now a lot more uncertain. Pretty much everybody who should have declared did, it's just that we didn't get as much of a chance to scout them, and for the freshmen, we didn't get to see how they developed by the end of the season. For example, I could see somebody like Patrick Williams having ended up a top 3 pick if he got to play another 8 conference/NCAA tournament games, or even going back to school to develop one more year in the other extreme. I like having several mid to late 1sts this year a lot more than I did at the start of the season. I'd still prefer the shot at a high lottery pick if next year breaks perfectly, but I also think the value curve is going to be a lot flatter this year and Memphis wouldn't get as much out of a top few pick even though the later picks are worth more than usual.
 

nighthob

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It's weak in terms of starpower, not depth. There are lots of roleplayers available.
 

benhogan

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The C's DON'T want the Memphis pick to convey, its not even a question.

2020 draft sucks + WC will be better next season + the option value of getting a 2021 top 10 pick + the Cs have an end of a roster crunch coming up this summer + the C's have 3 draft picks in 2020

edit...my bad gents
 
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Sprowl

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The C's want the Memphis pick to convey, its not even a question.

2020 draft sucks + WC will be better next season + the option value of getting a 2021 top 10 pick + the Cs have an end of a roster crunch coming up this summer + the C's have 3 draft picks in 2020
Huh? To my mind, those are all reasons why the Celtics don't want the Memphis pick to convey this year. Postponed roster crunch + fewer rookies to integrate in 2020-2021 + potential high lottery pick in 2021 draft = why in the world would we want it to convey in this year's draft, where it will be a mid-teens pick?
 

Smokey Joe

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The C's want the Memphis pick to convey, its not even a question.

2020 draft sucks + WC will be better next season + the option value of getting a 2021 top 10 pick + the Cs have an end of a roster crunch coming up this summer + the C's have 3 draft picks in 2020
I have a feeling that you left a word like”don’t” or “not” out of that statement. On a Saturday night with the 76ers and the Lakers both losing, in a rising tide of celebration, words can be misplaced.
 

benhogan

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Huh? To my mind, those are all reasons why the Celtics don't want the Memphis pick to convey this year. Postponed roster crunch + fewer rookies to integrate in 2020-2021 + potential high lottery pick in 2021 draft = why in the world would we want it to convey in this year's draft, where it will be a mid-teens pick?
o_O my bad meant we don't want it to convey
I have a feeling that you left a word like”don’t” or “not” out of that statement. On a Saturday night with the 76ers and the Lakers both losing, in a rising tide of celebration, words can be misplaced.
yep...thanks.

I was scratching my head while watching the Sixers yesterday
 

Imbricus

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Pels off to a good start, up 12-6 early. Zion looking like a bull, but he struggles some against taller players when maneuvering inside. Lonzo with an amazing full-court spot-on pass. Ingram with a boneheaded shot from 8 inches inside the 3-point line. Brad would've yanked him.
 

mauf

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Teams will have an entire off-season to figure out how to defend Morant and Clarke. This draft looks weak, so a top 4 pick isn't likely going to make a huge impact next season. This off-season is going to be short, which will impact young players more than veterans.

Put all that together, and I would bet against Memphis making the playoffs next year. Don't know how many ping pong balls the Celtics will get, but with a flattened lottery I'd gladly take my chances at a top five pick next year over a pick in the teens this year.
I think Morant is an elite talent who will get better in his second season, which will outweigh any countervailing factors (defensive adjustments, other teams getting better, etc.). Still, I’d much rather roll the dice on next season than have the pick convey in the mid-late teens this year, so I’ll be rooting against the Grizzlies (and for their ping-pong balls, if we get there).
 

chilidawg

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I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what we're rooting for with the Grizzlies. To drop out of the playoffs and be a lottery team: sure, I get that. Obviously it would be great if they fell as far as possible, which probably isn't that far with the shortened schedule. But do we really want them to win the right lottery balls to pick near the top? If that's the case, the pick doesn't convey (as it's top six protected), and the Celts have an unprotected pick next year, but then what are you looking at? A team with a bunch of talented young players, including Morant and a newly added top lottery pick, who will be expected to do even better (barring some bad luck)? That doesn't seem like a desirable outcome.
If they're a lottery team, it'll be one with very poor chances of moving up. I'll take that risk for moving up 3-4 slots in the draft. They've already fallen behind Orlando and into the 16th slot.
 

DJnVa

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WOJ says JJJ has a meniscus tear and is out for the season. Probably tanks much of next season as well, if I recall. That's good for our pick.
I don't think a meniscus tear will tank next season for them. Dr. Google says maybe 3 months.
 

amfox1

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MEM 32-36 (UTA, OKC, TOR, BOS, MIL)
POR 31-38 (DEN, LAC, PHI, DAL, BRK) - 1.5 GB
SAS 29-37 (DEN, UTA, NO, HOU, UTA) - 2.0 GB
NO 29-38 (SAC, WAS, SAS, SAC, ORL) - 2.5 GB

It is possible, although not probable, that MEM goes 0-5 (32-41), POR 2-3 (33-41), SAS 3-2 (32-39) and NO 4-1 (33-39).

That would put NO vs. POR in the play-in game, with MEM in the #12 position in the lottery.
 

BigSoxFan

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MEM 32-36 (UTA, OKC, TOR, BOS, MIL)
POR 31-38 (DEN, LAC, PHI, DAL, BRK) - 1.5 GB
SAS 29-37 (DEN, UTA, NO, HOU, UTA) - 2.0 GB
NO 29-38 (SAC, WAS, SAS, SAC, ORL) - 2.5 GB

It is possible, although not probable, that MEM goes 0-5 (32-41), POR 2-3 (33-41), SAS 3-2 (32-39) and NO 4-1 (33-39).

That would put NO vs. POR in the play-in game, with MEM in the #12 position in the lottery.
That would be awesome although I think Memphis probably squeaks out a win or two. Milwaukee and Boston may not be playing their guys much when they play them.
 

JakeRae

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MEM 32-36 (UTA, OKC, TOR, BOS, MIL)
POR 31-38 (DEN, LAC, PHI, DAL, BRK) - 1.5 GB
SAS 29-37 (DEN, UTA, NO, HOU, UTA) - 2.0 GB
NO 29-38 (SAC, WAS, SAS, SAC, ORL) - 2.5 GB

It is possible, although not probable, that MEM goes 0-5 (32-41), POR 2-3 (33-41), SAS 3-2 (32-39) and NO 4-1 (33-39).

That would put NO vs. POR in the play-in game, with MEM in the #12 position in the lottery.
Memphis cannot move higher than 14. The lottery positioning is determined by pre-suspension record.
 

DJnVa

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WOJ says JJJ has a meniscus tear and is out for the season. Probably tanks much of next season as well, if I recall. That's good for our pick.
Memphis cannot move higher than 14. The lottery positioning is determined by pre-suspension record.


Additionally, next season is really unlikely to matter anyway. That picks is coming over this season unless Memphis drops out of postseason and jumps into top 4.

The most likely outcome here is that Boston gets the pick -- either at No. 14 if the Grizzlies miss the postseason or No. 17 if they make it in. If the Grizzlies fall out of the playoffs and get the 14th slot in the lottery, they would have just a 2.4% chance of jumping into the top four and keeping the selection this season.
 

nighthob

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Boston's best case scenario, obviously, is Memphis landing #4 and Boston getting a top 12 pick next year as a result.
 

128

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Boston's best case scenario, obviously, is Memphis landing #4 and Boston getting a top 12 pick next year as a result.
Am I missing something here? Who's to say Memphis wouldn't make the playoffs next season? (Yes, I know the West should be brutal, but other teams experience misfortune, too.)
 

nighthob

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Am I missing something here? Who's to say Memphis wouldn't make the playoffs next season? (Yes, I know the West should be brutal, but other teams experience misfortune, too.)
Golden State won't be missing half their roster next season, similarly Portland should be healthy next year. Memphis could get better and still finish with a much worse record. Memphis's odds of making the playoffs next year are much worse and the draft pool much better.
 

128

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Golden State won't be missing half their roster next season, similarly Portland should be healthy next year. Memphis could get better and still finish with a much worse record. Memphis's odds of making the playoffs next year are much worse and the draft pool much better.
You may well be right, but if we've learned anything from watching Sacramento in 2018-19 and Memphis this year, it's that seasons don't always unfold as expected.
 

DJnVa

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Am I missing something here? Who's to say Memphis wouldn't make the playoffs next season? (Yes, I know the West should be brutal, but other teams experience misfortune, too.)
No one. That's why he said "best case".
 

NomarsFool

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Okay, it looks like the Grizz clinch a playoff spot with a win against the Celtics or Bucks. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. But, we may still need some help from some other teams to make the ping pong balls interesting from a C's perspective.
 

PedroKsBambino

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They at best clinch a spot in the play-in game. Is it the case that the play-in game does not impact lottery status?
 

The Raccoon

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Dame with 51 points in a close win against the 76ers - when he's on, he's fun to watch.
Embiid with only 5min on the court before leaving with an ancle injury...
Edit - wrong thread, sry
 

NomarsFool

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If the Grizzlies end up as the 9th seed, but win both the play-in games (and therefore make the playoffs) are they a lottery team, or not a lottery team? Anyone know?

Edit: NM, looks like if you make the playoffs, you are still excluded from the lottery.