Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020

NoXInNixon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
4,356
Teams will have an entire off-season to figure out how to defend Morant and Clarke. This draft looks weak, so a top 4 pick isn't likely going to make a huge impact next season. This off-season is going to be short, which will impact young players more than veterans.

Put all that together, and I would bet against Memphis making the playoffs next year. Don't know how many ping pong balls the Celtics will get, but with a flattened lottery I'd gladly take my chances at a top five pick next year over a pick in the teens this year.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,485
Saint Paul, MN
Fair enough point that they don't always progress in linear fashion (see "Sacramento Kings"), but Morant looks like he's going to be a game-changer type of talent, and he's only 20. Not sure I want to see what they can do with him plus a top 4 pick, plus everyone else they have ... but I guess there is a dice-roll element to all of this, and key Grizzlies could get injured next year, or ...
You always roll the dice on a chance at an unprotected pick when the alternative is a # 15 pick in a not so great draft. It really doesn't matter thought. Cetics will be picking in the 14-17 slot and in this draft, I am not sure there is a material difference between any of those picks
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,857
I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what we're rooting for with the Grizzlies. To drop out of the playoffs and be a lottery team: sure, I get that. Obviously it would be great if they fell as far as possible, which probably isn't that far with the shortened schedule. But do we really want them to win the right lottery balls to pick near the top? If that's the case, the pick doesn't convey (as it's top six protected), and the Celts have an unprotected pick next year, but then what are you looking at? A team with a bunch of talented young players, including Morant and a newly added top lottery pick, who will be expected to do even better (barring some bad luck)? That doesn't seem like a desirable outcome.
This is a roleplayer draft so the fourth pick isn’t turning them into the new Mavericks. Plus the west will likely not be ravaged by injury next year, so the Warriors and Trailblazers will be playing at full strength in 20-21. There are other young teams that will also be making improvements, So the odds are that the Grizzlies, even with a top four pick, are no better than the 10th-12th best team in the West next year, and a mid to late lottery pick next year is better than a mid first this year.
 

CSteinhardt

"Steiny"
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
2,699
Cambridge
I'm really not convinced this is going to be a weak draft. There are a lot of prospects who would have been really helped by the tournament(s) and where the evaluation is now a lot more uncertain. Pretty much everybody who should have declared did, it's just that we didn't get as much of a chance to scout them, and for the freshmen, we didn't get to see how they developed by the end of the season. For example, I could see somebody like Patrick Williams having ended up a top 3 pick if he got to play another 8 conference/NCAA tournament games, or even going back to school to develop one more year in the other extreme. I like having several mid to late 1sts this year a lot more than I did at the start of the season. I'd still prefer the shot at a high lottery pick if next year breaks perfectly, but I also think the value curve is going to be a lot flatter this year and Memphis wouldn't get as much out of a top few pick even though the later picks are worth more than usual.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,857
It's weak in terms of starpower, not depth. There are lots of roleplayers available.
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,063
Santa Monica
The C's DON'T want the Memphis pick to convey, its not even a question.

2020 draft sucks + WC will be better next season + the option value of getting a 2021 top 10 pick + the Cs have an end of a roster crunch coming up this summer + the C's have 3 draft picks in 2020

edit...my bad gents
 
Last edited:

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
32,437
Haiku
The C's want the Memphis pick to convey, its not even a question.

2020 draft sucks + WC will be better next season + the option value of getting a 2021 top 10 pick + the Cs have an end of a roster crunch coming up this summer + the C's have 3 draft picks in 2020
Huh? To my mind, those are all reasons why the Celtics don't want the Memphis pick to convey this year. Postponed roster crunch + fewer rookies to integrate in 2020-2021 + potential high lottery pick in 2021 draft = why in the world would we want it to convey in this year's draft, where it will be a mid-teens pick?
 

Smokey Joe

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2001
601
The C's want the Memphis pick to convey, its not even a question.

2020 draft sucks + WC will be better next season + the option value of getting a 2021 top 10 pick + the Cs have an end of a roster crunch coming up this summer + the C's have 3 draft picks in 2020
I have a feeling that you left a word like”don’t” or “not” out of that statement. On a Saturday night with the 76ers and the Lakers both losing, in a rising tide of celebration, words can be misplaced.
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,063
Santa Monica
Huh? To my mind, those are all reasons why the Celtics don't want the Memphis pick to convey this year. Postponed roster crunch + fewer rookies to integrate in 2020-2021 + potential high lottery pick in 2021 draft = why in the world would we want it to convey in this year's draft, where it will be a mid-teens pick?
o_O my bad meant we don't want it to convey
I have a feeling that you left a word like”don’t” or “not” out of that statement. On a Saturday night with the 76ers and the Lakers both losing, in a rising tide of celebration, words can be misplaced.
yep...thanks.

I was scratching my head while watching the Sixers yesterday
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
2,354
Pels off to a good start, up 12-6 early. Zion looking like a bull, but he struggles some against taller players when maneuvering inside. Lonzo with an amazing full-court spot-on pass. Ingram with a boneheaded shot from 8 inches inside the 3-point line. Brad would've yanked him.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
Teams will have an entire off-season to figure out how to defend Morant and Clarke. This draft looks weak, so a top 4 pick isn't likely going to make a huge impact next season. This off-season is going to be short, which will impact young players more than veterans.

Put all that together, and I would bet against Memphis making the playoffs next year. Don't know how many ping pong balls the Celtics will get, but with a flattened lottery I'd gladly take my chances at a top five pick next year over a pick in the teens this year.
I think Morant is an elite talent who will get better in his second season, which will outweigh any countervailing factors (defensive adjustments, other teams getting better, etc.). Still, I’d much rather roll the dice on next season than have the pick convey in the mid-late teens this year, so I’ll be rooting against the Grizzlies (and for their ping-pong balls, if we get there).
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
2,091
Cultural hub of the universe
I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what we're rooting for with the Grizzlies. To drop out of the playoffs and be a lottery team: sure, I get that. Obviously it would be great if they fell as far as possible, which probably isn't that far with the shortened schedule. But do we really want them to win the right lottery balls to pick near the top? If that's the case, the pick doesn't convey (as it's top six protected), and the Celts have an unprotected pick next year, but then what are you looking at? A team with a bunch of talented young players, including Morant and a newly added top lottery pick, who will be expected to do even better (barring some bad luck)? That doesn't seem like a desirable outcome.
If they're a lottery team, it'll be one with very poor chances of moving up. I'll take that risk for moving up 3-4 slots in the draft. They've already fallen behind Orlando and into the 16th slot.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
41,547
WOJ says JJJ has a meniscus tear and is out for the season. Probably tanks much of next season as well, if I recall. That's good for our pick.
I don't think a meniscus tear will tank next season for them. Dr. Google says maybe 3 months.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
5,418
The back of your computer
MEM 32-36 (UTA, OKC, TOR, BOS, MIL)
POR 31-38 (DEN, LAC, PHI, DAL, BRK) - 1.5 GB
SAS 29-37 (DEN, UTA, NO, HOU, UTA) - 2.0 GB
NO 29-38 (SAC, WAS, SAS, SAC, ORL) - 2.5 GB

It is possible, although not probable, that MEM goes 0-5 (32-41), POR 2-3 (33-41), SAS 3-2 (32-39) and NO 4-1 (33-39).

That would put NO vs. POR in the play-in game, with MEM in the #12 position in the lottery.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
35,377
MEM 32-36 (UTA, OKC, TOR, BOS, MIL)
POR 31-38 (DEN, LAC, PHI, DAL, BRK) - 1.5 GB
SAS 29-37 (DEN, UTA, NO, HOU, UTA) - 2.0 GB
NO 29-38 (SAC, WAS, SAS, SAC, ORL) - 2.5 GB

It is possible, although not probable, that MEM goes 0-5 (32-41), POR 2-3 (33-41), SAS 3-2 (32-39) and NO 4-1 (33-39).

That would put NO vs. POR in the play-in game, with MEM in the #12 position in the lottery.
That would be awesome although I think Memphis probably squeaks out a win or two. Milwaukee and Boston may not be playing their guys much when they play them.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
6,557
New York, NY
MEM 32-36 (UTA, OKC, TOR, BOS, MIL)
POR 31-38 (DEN, LAC, PHI, DAL, BRK) - 1.5 GB
SAS 29-37 (DEN, UTA, NO, HOU, UTA) - 2.0 GB
NO 29-38 (SAC, WAS, SAS, SAC, ORL) - 2.5 GB

It is possible, although not probable, that MEM goes 0-5 (32-41), POR 2-3 (33-41), SAS 3-2 (32-39) and NO 4-1 (33-39).

That would put NO vs. POR in the play-in game, with MEM in the #12 position in the lottery.
Memphis cannot move higher than 14. The lottery positioning is determined by pre-suspension record.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
41,547
WOJ says JJJ has a meniscus tear and is out for the season. Probably tanks much of next season as well, if I recall. That's good for our pick.
Memphis cannot move higher than 14. The lottery positioning is determined by pre-suspension record.


Additionally, next season is really unlikely to matter anyway. That picks is coming over this season unless Memphis drops out of postseason and jumps into top 4.

The most likely outcome here is that Boston gets the pick -- either at No. 14 if the Grizzlies miss the postseason or No. 17 if they make it in. If the Grizzlies fall out of the playoffs and get the 14th slot in the lottery, they would have just a 2.4% chance of jumping into the top four and keeping the selection this season.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,857
Boston's best case scenario, obviously, is Memphis landing #4 and Boston getting a top 12 pick next year as a result.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
1,561
Boston's best case scenario, obviously, is Memphis landing #4 and Boston getting a top 12 pick next year as a result.
Am I missing something here? Who's to say Memphis wouldn't make the playoffs next season? (Yes, I know the West should be brutal, but other teams experience misfortune, too.)
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,857
Am I missing something here? Who's to say Memphis wouldn't make the playoffs next season? (Yes, I know the West should be brutal, but other teams experience misfortune, too.)
Golden State won't be missing half their roster next season, similarly Portland should be healthy next year. Memphis could get better and still finish with a much worse record. Memphis's odds of making the playoffs next year are much worse and the draft pool much better.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
1,561
Golden State won't be missing half their roster next season, similarly Portland should be healthy next year. Memphis could get better and still finish with a much worse record. Memphis's odds of making the playoffs next year are much worse and the draft pool much better.
You may well be right, but if we've learned anything from watching Sacramento in 2018-19 and Memphis this year, it's that seasons don't always unfold as expected.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
41,547
Am I missing something here? Who's to say Memphis wouldn't make the playoffs next season? (Yes, I know the West should be brutal, but other teams experience misfortune, too.)
No one. That's why he said "best case".
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
4,112
Okay, it looks like the Grizz clinch a playoff spot with a win against the Celtics or Bucks. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. But, we may still need some help from some other teams to make the ping pong balls interesting from a C's perspective.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
23,768
They at best clinch a spot in the play-in game. Is it the case that the play-in game does not impact lottery status?
 

The Raccoon

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2018
480
Germany
Dame with 51 points in a close win against the 76ers - when he's on, he's fun to watch.
Embiid with only 5min on the court before leaving with an ancle injury...
Edit - wrong thread, sry
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
4,112
If the Grizzlies end up as the 9th seed, but win both the play-in games (and therefore make the playoffs) are they a lottery team, or not a lottery team? Anyone know?

Edit: NM, looks like if you make the playoffs, you are still excluded from the lottery.
 

ilol@u

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 2, 2009
3,466
Foxboro
Ja looks like a taller version of a younger Derrick Rose. He can get to the rim, does an amazing job at finishing, just needs to work on his outside shooting game. The future is bright for Memphis with JJJ and Ja.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
2,887
I have a feeling the Griz will either make the playoffs next season, or be drafting 12-14. I like the idea of Patrick Williams at 14 for the Celtics. It's disappointing that the Sacto and Griz picks weren't top picks, but I can easily get over the disappointment by thinking about Brown and Tatum dominating for years.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
6,464
I have a feeling the Griz will either make the playoffs next season, or be drafting 12-14. I like the idea of Patrick Williams at 14 for the Celtics. It's disappointing that the Sacto and Griz picks weren't top picks, but I can easily get over the disappointment by thinking about Brown and Tatum dominating for years.
Yeah, if you think about it as, all those picks that the celtics traded for ended up including a #1 and a #3 and that they hit home runs on both of those then it worked out fine.

I'd be really surprised if they make all 3 of their 1st round picks this year, they're going to have enough trouble just figuring out who from the current 17 they want to carry over and how to get minutes for the young guys they want to get minutes for without adding even more rookies.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,189
I have a feeling the Griz will either make the playoffs next season, or be drafting 12-14. I like the idea of Patrick Williams at 14 for the Celti
He wouldn’t surprise me as a potential target. Strong, athletic, good defender with stretch upside. A guy who can potentially hold up against the Giannis/Siakam/Bam types. One of the youngest players in the draft, productive in a limited role for a talented FSU team. I think Kira Lewis has star potential and may still be there at 14, but I definitely wouldn’t hate Williams there.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
2,354
I'd be really surprised if they make all 3 of their 1st round picks this year
I agree this makes the most sense, but remember, that's exactly what people were saying about last year too. Either Danny wants too much for the picks, or other GMs don't want to help out the Celtics in any way.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
35,377
Has a team ever had 4 lotto picks in a 5 year span while making the playoffs in all 5 years? That feels like such an anomaly.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
4,112
It seems like this draft is very flat (along with extra uncertainty with the COVID situation), so it wouldn't surprise me if players picked in the 20's end up being better than players picked in the 10's or even in the top 10. That said, I think I'd rather the Celtics take 3 shots at getting someone who could add value in the future vs. packaging picks to move up in this draft. If they could push one or more forward to a future year - that's great, but I think that's probably unlikely to be successful.

From the current squad, I think Edwards has shown very little and Poirier never sees anything but garbage time. I think those two are gone for sure. Javonte Green is pretty old, so I think he is gone as well. The two question marks for me are Brad Wannamaker, who Brad Stevens values pretty highly, I think, and Semi. Semi would still be reasonably cost controlled for another year, and does have some value (he is capable of playing in prime time for short stints). I don't know if Kanter will be back, but I think he has shown to be very productive when used appropriately.
 

NoXInNixon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
4,356
But here's the problem with taking three shots. To develop, rookies need minutes, and the Celtics will already have not enough minutes to go around. I want to see more of Carson and Romeo and Grant Williams next year off the bench.

I trust Danny to find the one guy available in the mid-lottery who's worth trading three later first round picks for. The Celtics could use another guard especially if there are concerns about Kemba's knee. Tyrese Haliburton would be a great fit on this team.
 

Koufax

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,622
Nine players on this year's roster are not signed for next year. Poirier is likely to go. If it were up to me, Waters would be gone. Green, as athletic as he is, is expendable. Will Hayward be back? I think he'll prefer to play somewhere where he is more of a top dog, but I hope he returns. Fall may not be back. Kanter may be gone, eclipsed by Time Lord.

If the departures are limited to Poirer, Waters Green and Fall, that does not open up a lot of minutes, for sure. But Danny seems OK with letting kids one year out of high school work on their game in the G league or in Celtics practices. The experience of the last few years makes it clear that dealing away draft picks for equivalent value is harder than it seems. Otherwise, Danny would have done it last year.

So in all likelihood, Danny picks three first rounders whose first serious playing time in the NBA will be no sooner than 15 months from now barring injury to a front line player, which is always possible.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
35,377
Nine players on this year's roster are not signed for next year. Poirier is likely to go. If it were up to me, Waters would be gone. Green, as athletic as he is, is expendable. Will Hayward be back? I think he'll prefer to play somewhere where he is more of a top dog, but I hope he returns. Fall may not be back. Kanter may be gone, eclipsed by Time Lord.

If the departures are limited to Poirer, Waters Green and Fall, that does not open up a lot of minutes, for sure. But Danny seems OK with letting kids one year out of high school work on their game in the G league or in Celtics practices. The experience of the last few years makes it clear that dealing away draft picks for equivalent value is harder than it seems. Otherwise, Danny would have done it last year.

So in all likelihood, Danny picks three first rounders whose first serious playing time in the NBA will be no sooner than 15 months from now barring injury to a front line player, which is always possible.
This is where I am. The Celtics can afford to pick guys and develop them slowly. Barring injuries, this will be a top 4 team in the EC again next year so there wouldn’t be many minutes available for even a top 3-4 pick (not possible, obviously

C: Theis / TL
PF: Tatum / Williams
SF: Hayward
SG: Brown / Romeo
PG: Kemba / Smart

I will gladly let Ainge get 3 more bites at the Apple and we are going to need all the cheap labor we can get given the top heavy salary structure that we’ve committed to for the next 3 years with Kemba.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
38,528
I have a feeling the Griz will either make the playoffs next season, or be drafting 12-14. I like the idea of Patrick Williams at 14 for the Celtics. It's disappointing that the Sacto and Griz picks weren't top picks, but I can easily get over the disappointment by thinking about Brown and Tatum dominating for years.
Much like the man he was traded for, the Grizzlies pick appeared to have sky-high potential, with only a broken heart to show for it.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
4,112
Will there even be a G-league this Fall? I haven't heard anything about that. Baseball did away with their minor league season. I think the international players are pretty intriguing from the perspective that maybe they would be more willing to continue to play overseas and develop (draft and stash).
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,857
Much like the man he was traded for, the Grizzlies pick appeared to have sky-high potential, with only a broken heart to show for it.
A lottery pick for Jeff Green is a great deal no matter which way you slice it. And if it produces a high upside guy like Patrick Williams or Precious Achiuwa we'll be happy. If they catch lightning in a bottle and it produces Jalen Johnson or Jonathan Kuminga we'll be through the roof.

Will there even be a G-league this Fall? I haven't heard anything about that. Baseball did away with their minor league season. I think the international players are pretty intriguing from the perspective that maybe they would be more willing to continue to play overseas and develop (draft and stash).
There a couple of possible draft & stash guys in the late first, but I doubt that Boston's going to prioritize them. This isn't the summer of '16 where the plan was to sign two max players and they couldn't afford the cap holds (of course, had they just given up on James Young and shipped him off with cash and a #2 they might have drafted Pascal Siakim). If someone like Leandro Bolmaro or Theo Maledon is available at the end of the first they might get picked, but Boston won't be leaving them in Europe. They'll be coming here to get used to the speed of the NBA game.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
23,768
Agreed. Celts had not been as big a user of the young international players as development projects but this year, with those picks, it screams out to take at least one shot.

If the three picks are best player available; international upside; role player I'll be happy.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,756
Kiev, Ukraine
Waters will very likely be back, because if his defense translates at all, he will be a 10-20 min backup PG in the league.

Javonte is gone, Tacko well could be, and you have to think they'll find a way to unload Poirier and maybe Carsen.