Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020

DannyDarwinism

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Davis is an interesting one, I remember a lot of buzz about him pre-draft, that he was a fast riser on teams radar, but then he goes undrafted. Wtf GM's?
He told teams pre-draft that he wouldn’t accept a two-way, but I was still surprised he didn’t get drafted.


He definitely had some buzz. Pretty sure some of us discussed him a bit in the predraft thread.
 

benhogan

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He told teams pre-draft that he wouldn’t accept a two-way, but I was still surprised he didn’t get drafted.


He definitely had some buzz. Pretty sure some of us discussed him a bit in the predraft thread.
Holy crap that Fred Van Vleet draft party speech is some good stuff.

AND the CBA needs to start getting these two-way guys and G-league players paid much more. Chris Paul, Bron and all their woke buddies need to start spreading the player cap wealth a bit more evenly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Holy crap that Fred Van Vleet draft party speech is some good stuff.

AND the CBA needs to start getting these two-way guys and G-league players paid much more. Chris Paul, Bron and all their woke buddies need to start spreading the player cap wealth a bit more evenly.
To be fair, before Paul and Bron these guys wouldn't have ANY contract or opportunity in what was then 13-man rosters without the two-ways. Today, they have 15 guaranteed NBA roster spots along with the two-way opportunities for these guys. The two-way and G-League is designed for opportunity......not for guys to make a living long-term.
 

luckiestman

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I need these assholes to go 9-19 or something like that and looking at the schedule it might be possible.
 

BigMike

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I need these assholes to go 9-19 or something like that and looking at the schedule it might be possible.
Why did you bet the over under at 37.5 somewhere? Or are you desperately targeting someone at pick 13 that won't be there at pick 17?I

It is possible the finish 9-19, but even with the tougher schedule ahead, this is a team that has won 69% of their games over the last 10 weeks. The Grizz open the second have with a tough 4 game road trip. So that will be an interesting test
 

Imbricus

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What's weird is that FiveThirtyEight shows them here as having an 8% chance of making the playoffs. ??? Meanwhile, the Pelicans supposedly have a 65% chance. Not sure what's being factored into this analysis, but that would be great if it's accurate.
 

NomarsFool

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A lot of the season has already gone by, which is weird because the All-Star Game just happened and you think of that as the mid-way point, but it's really not.

I think NOL has a good shot at making the playoffs with Zion back. Brooklyn is an interesting case because Irving is gone for the season. Logic would have you believe that hurts their chances, BUT it also wouldn't be that surprising if they play better without him.

I think Memphis has a good shot at going into a bit of a losing streak here - but we'll see. At this point, it's probably too late to make a difference.
 

Euclis20

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What's weird is that FiveThirtyEight shows them here as having an 8% chance of making the playoffs. ??? Meanwhile, the Pelicans supposedly have a 65% chance. Not sure what's being factored into this analysis, but that would be great if it's accurate.
Yeah, 26 games left and a 3.5 game cushion doesn't square with an 8% chance of making the playoffs. A tough schedule shouldn't be enough to do that.
 

nighthob

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What's weird is that FiveThirtyEight shows them here as having an 8% chance of making the playoffs. ??? Meanwhile, the Pelicans supposedly have a 65% chance. Not sure what's being factored into this analysis, but that would be great if it's accurate.
The Pelicans have the easiest post-ASB schedule and have been playing .640 ball since their 6-22 start. Even if they just keep up that pace that projects out to another 17 wins. Memphis has a brutal 26 game stretch coming up after fattening themselves up on a weak January schedule. Put another way, I think the odds of the Pelicans reaching .500 are better than the Grizzlies’.
 

Euclis20

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The Pelicans have the easiest post-ASB schedule and have been playing .640 ball since their 6-22 start. Even if they just keep up that pace that projects out to another 17 wins. Memphis has a brutal 26 game stretch coming up after fattening themselves up on a weak January schedule. Put another way, I think the odds of the Pelicans reaching .500 are better than the Grizzlies’.
That's fair. How much more likely do you think the Pelicans are to reach .500 than the Grizzlies? 538 seems to think NO is about 8x more likely to do so, which seems incredible to me.
 

nighthob

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The winning percentage of Memphis’ remaining foes is .555. In New Orleans’ case that winning percentage is .451.
 

Euclis20

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That's not an answer. I agree with you that NO is far more likely to finish stronger, and depending on how their two H2H games go, they may completely flip the bottom half of the standings. But 65% vs 8% is a huge gulf, especially considering NO also has to pass the Spurs and Blazers, who are both a half game ahead. It's baffling that a team with a small cushion and <1/3 of the season remaining has such a minuscule chance of making the playoffs, and it's equally so that the team in 11th (and more than twice as close to 13th as they are to 8th) has a nearly 2/3 chance of making the playoffs. I'm rooting for them all the way (I'd love to see Zion batter the Lakers almost as much as I'd like the MEM pick to be as good as possible), but the odds aren't passing the smell test for me.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, 26 games left and a 3.5 game cushion doesn't square with an 8% chance of making the playoffs. A tough schedule shouldn't be enough to do that.
Yeah but when your primary competitor has the easiest schedule along with Zion then this becomes more than a simple math equation. There are other factors that you must factor which 538 has done.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Blazers and Pels take care of business, Spurs lose at OKC.

Tonight the Grizz are at LAC, and the Magic go to Brooklyn (a game that would only matter if Memphis makes the playoffs).
 

lovegtm

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Starting to get cautiously optimistic: if Memphis can drop out of the playoffs, suddenly we're talking a 12-14 pick. This is an awful, awful draft to have a top-3 pick in (because of lower top-end talent and the salary scale), but seems like a decent one for finding rotation guys. 13 is way better than 17 in this regard.
 

benhogan

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They could slide all the way to #10 in the lottery! Unlikely but we can hope
now we're talking, and with a draft that considered weak by everyone, teams in front of the C's may value a package of 1st rounders (10 +26 +30) for say #7 or 8?
 

lovegtm

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now we're talking, and with a draft that considered weak by everyone, teams in front of the C's may value a package of 1st rounders (10 +26 +30) for say #7 or 8?
Yeah, or you just make the picks and cut the guys who don't pass the "will I kick myself really hard for cutting them" test. I'd probably rather cut/dump Javonte/VP/Tacko/Semi/Edwards to get a crack at seeing how a 26 and 30 pan out, since it's not at all crazy to find solid rotation guys there.
 

chilidawg

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Yeah, or you just make the picks and cut the guys who don't pass the "will I kick myself really hard for cutting them" test. I'd probably rather cut/dump Javonte/VP/Tacko/Semi/Edwards to get a crack at seeing how a 26 and 30 pan out, since it's not at all crazy to find solid rotation guys there.
Yeah, finding room for first round picks shouldn't be an issue.

Ironic that early in the year a 10th pick would have seemed like the worst possible outcome, and now it's something we can dream about.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, or you just make the picks and cut the guys who don't pass the "will I kick myself really hard for cutting them" test. I'd probably rather cut/dump Javonte/VP/Tacko/Semi/Edwards to get a crack at seeing how a 26 and 30 pan out, since it's not at all crazy to find solid rotation guys there.
Yeah unless there was someone at 7 they really liked. I think they'd just be better off taking the picks though. 10 26 and 30 probably would get you to 6 or 7 tho. At least it did with the Eddie Griffin trade.

I think there will be roster spots. It just requires cutting some "binkies." There's always the "they won't play 5 rookies" story but they've done it a few times recently.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah unless there was someone at 7 they really liked. I think they'd just be better off taking the picks though. 10 26 and 30 probably would get you to 6 or 7 tho. At least it did with the Eddie Griffin trade.

I think there will be roster spots. It just requires cutting some "binkies." There's always the "they won't play 5 rookies" story but they've done it a few times recently.
Right, exactly. They’re already not playing Javonte and VP ever at all, and Semi is moving into that territory as Brad gains confidence in Romeo and Grant (2 rookies who are getting significant time now). I could see Carsen being the one they want to cut the least, just because they have him locked up for awhile and want to give the shot a chance to pan out.

The main thing I don’t love in all this is that you lose the chance to build a solid vet rotation around your stars like Milwaukee has.
 

benhogan

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Right, exactly. They’re already not playing Javonte and VP ever at all, and Semi is moving into that territory as Brad gains confidence in Romeo and Grant (2 rookies who are getting significant time now). I could see Carsen being the one they want to cut the least, just because they have him locked up for awhile and want to give the shot a chance to pan out.

The main thing I don’t love in all this is that you lose the chance to build a solid vet rotation around your stars like Milwaukee has.
I think Danny will be able to sign a vet or two on the cheap(min) this summer since they will be a title contender in 2021. The Bucks were able to get Wes Matthews, Marvin Williams, Pat Connaughton(?), Kyle Korver, Robin Lopez, Brooks Lopez (initially) on the cheap because of ring chasing
 

benhogan

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I think there will be roster spots. It just requires cutting some "binkies." There's always the "they won't play 5 rookies" story but they've done it a few times recently.
There are no "binkies", just initial optimism to give cheap/controlled rookies a shot to fill bench roles. Romeo and Grant are finding those roles, the others aren't there yet. Nobody is banging the doors for the other rookies (Carsen, Tacko, Tre, etc) playing real minutes or having bigger roles now.

Carsen was given a shot earlier this year, it didnt hurt the Celtics chances of winning, and he was unable to be a sparkplug off the bench. The Celtics learned something at no cost, that's smart development and roster mgmt.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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There are no "binkies", just initial optimism to give cheap/controlled rookies a shot to fill bench roles. Romeo and Grant are finding those roles, the others aren't there yet. Nobody is banging the doors for the other rookies (Carsen, Tacko, Tre, etc) playing real minutes or having bigger roles now.

Carsen was given a shot earlier this year, it didnt hurt the Celtics chances of winning, and he was unable to be a sparkplug off the bench. The Celtics learned something at no cost, that's smart development and roster mgmt.
There are always binkies.
 

benhogan

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There are always binkies.
ha ha

I was probably the most optimistic on Edwards around here to start the season. And now after seeing the evidence, Waters or Edwards is a coin toss who stays (or both go).

The Celtics tried to develop early in the season with low leverage NBA minutes, big Maine minutes, coach them up, see the work ethic in the gym/film. Rinse/repeat. See which players stick for a few million here and there. That's the world of late firsts/2nd rounders/UDFAs. Grant is sticking. Romeo is developing. Waters or Edwards, if I squint, can eventually take Wanamaker's role next season. It's all good.

If that is BINKY-ing, guilty as charged:redwine:
 

Cesar Crespo

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ha ha

I was probably the most optimistic on Edwards around here to start the season. And now after seeing the evidence, Waters or Edwards is a coin toss who stays (or both go).

The Celtics tried to develop early in the season with low leverage NBA minutes, big Maine minutes, coach them up, see the work ethic in the gym/film. Rinse/repeat. See which players stick for a few million here and there. That's the world of late firsts/2nd rounders/UDFAs. Grant is sticking. Romeo is developing. Waters or Edwards, if I squint, can eventually take Wanamaker's role next season. It's all good.

If that is BINKY-ing, guilty as charged:redwine:
In the world of 17 man rosters, more and more 2nd round picks will have NBA careers anyway so people will be vindicated 9-10 years from now when these players have 10 year careers.

This summer, some guy acquired outside of the 1st round will dominate the summer league, look great in exhibition and will become the new binky. They'll basically draft the next Edwards, Waters, Fall. Rinse and repeat. They are binkies when you get attached to them. Most of the time, people don't stay attached too long.

There's also the anti binky where no matter what a player does, no one will like him. See Yabusele. I mean, he sucked but so does Zizic and we binkied him to the moon.

edit: I also don't think you can "binky" lottery picks. They were lottery picks for a reason.
 

lovegtm

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There are always binkies.
In what sense?

(Of course, if you're still arguing with the bicameral head voices of posters who liked Nader, then *shrug*)
In the world of 17 man rosters, more and more 2nd round picks will have NBA careers anyway so people will be vindicated 9-10 years from now when these players have 10 year careers.

This summer, some guy acquired outside of the 1st round will dominate the summer league, look great in exhibition and will become the new binky. They'll basically draft the next Edwards, Waters, Fall. Rinse and repeat. They are binkies when you get attached to them. Most of the time, people don't stay attached too long.

There's also the anti binky where no matter what a player does, no one will like him. See Yabusele. I mean, he sucked but so does Zizic and we binkied him to the moon.

edit: I also don't think you can "binky" lottery picks. They were lottery picks for a reason.
As long as the attachment doesn’t preclude rational moves, I don’t see the issue. At a certain point you have to have some fun when watching sports, and rooting for young guys is fun.
 

InstaFace

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I'd probably rather cut/dump Javonte/VP/Tacko/Semi/Edwards to get a crack at seeing how a 26 and 30 pan out...
You shut your dirty whore mouth. Tacko is going to have a 10-year career once he learns to play... um, well, anything.
 

NomarsFool

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Can Tacko play a second year in the G-league, or do you think some other team will give him an NBA job?
 

Cesar Crespo

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In what sense?

(Of course, if you're still arguing with the bicameral head voices of posters who liked Nader, then *shrug*)

As long as the attachment doesn’t preclude rational moves, I don’t see the issue. At a certain point you have to have some fun when watching sports, and rooting for young guys is fun.
You had Ben Hogan predicting Carsen Edwards to finish top 3 in ROY voting. That's "binky." I never said it was harmful because BenHogan and other SoSH poster aren't our GM.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Can Tacko play a second year in the G-league, or do you think some other team will give him an NBA job?
He could get an NBA contract and still get a 2nd year in the G league. If you are asking if they could get him on a 2 way deal again... I dunno.
 

benhogan

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You had Ben Hogan predicting Carsen Edwards to finish top 3 in ROY voting. That's "binky." I never said it was harmful because BenHogan and other SoSH poster aren't our GM.
I was optimistic, no harm in that. I mean I could be a cynic with every 2nd rounder/UDFA and be right 80% of the time, but you try them out and see how it plays. No harm/no foul. The other side of the coin is being caustic and having a Dan Shaughnessey take on all athletes.

CBS played Edwards perfectly. We saw that he was overwhelmed after 2 months in the show, and I was on the record for saying move him down to Maine to get reps (which happened).

Now if I was to say TL was going to be our saviour once he returns from his 12th instance of being injured/inactive, now that's irrational and binky-like
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was optimistic, no harm in that. I mean I could be a cynic with every 2nd rounder/UDFA and be right 80% of the time, but you try them out and see how it plays. No harm/no foul. The other side of the coin is being caustic and having a Dan Shaughnessey take on all athletes.

CBS played Edwards perfectly. We saw that he was overwhelmed after 2 months in the show, and I was on the record for saying move him down to Maine to get reps (which happened).

Now if I was to say TL was going to be our saviour once he returns from his 12th instance of being injured/inactive, now that's irrational and binky-like
I just use binky as shorthand for anyone acquired after the 1st round who hasn't proven anything and even if they end up doing ok, they are still replaceable. Their roster spot shouldn't be presumed safe.
 

benhogan

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I just use binky as shorthand for anyone acquired after the 1st round who hasn't proven anything and even if they end up doing ok, they are still replaceable. Their roster spot shouldn't be presumed safe.
Fair enough. Cheap, end of the bench fodder.

my "binky" definition: irrationally liking a young player after a season or two of evidence
(ie anyone that complained about a Yabusele buyout last summer)

and I'll give credit where credit is due. You were not a huge Edwards fan and took a bunch of blowback from myself and others to start the season. So well played :notworthy:
Carsen has been overwhelmed all season and even looks lost in 2mins of garbage time last night.
 
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amarshal2

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I was also on the high-end for Edwards pre-season. I agree his stock has fallen enough that he's not a big consideration and I won't whine too much if he goes. But I wouldn't yet lop him in with Tacko/Green/VP/Semi grouping where I hardly care if they stay or go. Or perhaps better said, I'd rank him first in the group of fungible guys. I don't think it's unusual for a guy to just have a rough first year and lose confidence and seem like he can't play in the league. At his best Carsen will only have one plus NBA skill. If he doesn't have that skill, he's not an NBA player. However, his one plus skill is a high impact skill, and I'm uncomfortable rating the odds of that skill panning out as unlikely because of his rookie season. I'd like to see them find a way to hold onto Carsen for another year to see if he can give them confidence he can become that Eric Gordon/Seth Curry/Patty Mills type of bench player that can push a team over the top.

I think what this all really comes down to a framework of “what is a guy’s role on the team or in the future” and “how valuable is the guy in a vacuum?”
-Carsen is “easiest to see in bench spark plug role” and “not very valuable in a vacuum”. If there’s some better option I think you happily move on from Carsen. If there’s not, you keep him.
-Waters is “reserve point guard who can keep the offense going.” I think he’s going to be better at that role than Wanamaker next year. I think he’s roughly equivalent to 30th pick in the draft Give or take (perhaps a little more take)
-Wanamaker isn’t really even the backup PG role, he’s basically a 3 and D guard and he’s just okay at it. He’s in the “walk without compensation” category. I really hope they upgrade here.
-Romeo is “energy wing who will hold his own on defense and can score a bit” and also “young player you can see developing into an impact starter.” I think he’s probably equal to his draft slot in a future draft, which means he’s improving because he’s burning years of control

I can easily see the Celtics finding one player who steals both Waters and Carsen’s roles. Or perhaps Waters becomes that guy with an improved shot. I don’t see Carsen as a potential secondary ball handler/offensive initiator.

Etc etc.
 
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benhogan

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Grizzlies losers of 3 straight now, but no movement in the standings yet.
the injuries and schedule are troublesome for the Grizz.

Zion and the Pels played the Lakers tough, I see them chasing down that last playoff spot. Hopefully Pop and Stotts can get their teams to play up also
 

HomeRunBaker

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the injuries and schedule are troublesome for the Grizz.

Zion and the Pels played the Lakers tough, I see them chasing down that last playoff spot. Hopefully Pop and Stotts can get their teams to play up also
I still don’t think everyone realizes how good this Pelicans team is and how highly regarded they are. The Lakers hosted both Boston and New Orleans this week and were identical 7-7.5 pt favorites against each. How would we feel if the Celtics were 3 games behind Memphis right now with the easiest remaining schedule in the league.....pretty good right?
 

benhogan

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I still don’t think everyone realizes how good this Pelicans team is and how highly regarded they are. The Lakers hosted both Boston and New Orleans this week and were identical 7-7.5 pt favorites against each. How would we feel if the Celtics were 3 games behind Memphis right now with the easiest remaining schedule in the league.....pretty good right?
whoa Vegas knows. Didn't realize the Pels were getting that much respect, then again they handed the Celtics their worst loss in the last month
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Some of these Grizz guys off the bench I have NEVER heard of, and watch a good amount of college basketball. Watanabe is the guy I HAVE heard of.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Some of these Grizz guys off the bench I have NEVER heard of, and watch a good amount of college basketball. Watanabe is the guy I HAVE heard of.
You must not watch nearly as much University of Purdue-Fort Wayne basketball as you should. The Mastodons took care of business tonight against an overmatched University of Denver squad who are clearly longing for their days when Sinbad donned the Crimson and Gold. ;)