Memphis Grizzlies 2019-2020

lovegtm

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I still don’t think everyone realizes how good this Pelicans team is and how highly regarded they are. The Lakers hosted both Boston and New Orleans this week and were identical 7-7.5 pt favorites against each. How would we feel if the Celtics were 3 games behind Memphis right now with the easiest remaining schedule in the league.....pretty good right?
Yeah, exactly. It's not just a Zion thing--they have Favors back, Holiday and Reddick are legit, Ingram is coming into his own, and Lonzo has found a great role with his improved 3-point form.

If it weren't for Zion's injury and some atrocious luck, we'd be talking about them in the OKC/Dallas/Utah tier without question. They are not gonna be fun for the Lakers if that's the 1st round matchup.
 

InstaFace

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You must not watch nearly as much University of Purdue-Fort Wayne basketball as you should. The Mastodons took care of business tonight against an overmatched University of Denver squad who are clearly longing for their days when Sinbad donned the Crimson and Gold. ;)
I'm a sports geek, but there are times I doubt whether I'm geek enough to post here.

Yikes. :)
 

Jed Zeppelin

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After losing at home to the Kings, the Grizz have now lost 5 straight and are just two games up on the surging Pelicans.

2.5 up on Portland
3 up on Sacramento
3 up on San Antonio
4 up on Phoenix, pending tonight

Feeling good. Trust in Danny. Thank you Jeff Green.
 

the moops

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If they are to stay above .500 and have a chance at the playoffs, this stretch coming up is way imprtant for them. After LAL tonight, they have @ATL, @BRK, @DAL, ATL, ORL. After that stretch, it is brutal as they head west to POR and UTA, then have a smattering of tough opponents in MIL, TOR, BOS, SA, OKC.
 

tims4wins

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The pick is top 6 protected this year, then unprotected next year, right? I assume we are rooting for Memphis to get in the lottery, and then do we want them to jump up into the top 4 so it becomes unprotected next year? Or would that likely lead to a lousy pick next year if they add more talent? What's the optimal outcome here?
 

lovegtm

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The pick is top 6 protected this year, then unprotected next year, right? I assume we are rooting for Memphis to get in the lottery, and then do we want them to jump up into the top 4 so it becomes unprotected next year? Or would that likely lead to a lousy pick next year if they add more talent? What's the optimal outcome here?
I think most want it to convey as high as possible this year, with the thinking that another year of development for Ja and JJJ plus more talent = playoffs. There might be some value in hoping for it to postpone this year, and then having them get a Kings-y type year in 20-21 with injuries/slower development or something. Plus the Celtics wouldn't have to make the pick this year, and next year's draft looks better.
 

tims4wins

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I think most want it to convey as high as possible this year, with the thinking that another year of development for Ja and JJJ plus more talent = playoffs. There might be some value in hoping for it to postpone this year, and then having them get a Kings-y type year in 20-21 with injuries/slower development or something. Plus the Celtics wouldn't have to make the pick this year, and next year's draft looks better.
Right it’s kind of a catch 22. This years draft isn’t good but if the pick doesn’t convey Memphis will likely be even better next year so the pick would be worse... but in a better draft. Insert shrug emoji. I think I lean toward preferring the pick to not convey this year and then seeing how it all shakes out. Like you said it just takes one injury or something like that and they could end up in the lottery and then who knows - maybe the Celts are picking #1 in 2021. Crazier things have happened. Imagine if the Celts win it all in 2021 and then get a top 3-4 pick.
 

benhogan

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We’ve seen that movie before...
Ugh, too soon

Pretty sure we'll get the Grizzlies pick this year, but I'd love to roll the 2021 Memphis dice. Mostly because 2020 is a shitty draft, roster crunch this summer, plenty of picks already (two 1sts, two 2nds).

All high-class problems, most of the contenders draft stock cupboard is bare.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ugh, too soon

Pretty sure we'll get the Grizzlies pick this year, but I'd love to roll the 2021 Memphis dice. Mostly because 2020 is a shitty draft, roster crunch this summer, plenty of picks already (two 1sts, two 2nds).

All high-class problems, most of the contenders draft stock cupboard is bare.
You a Pistons fan or was BSF not making a Darko reference?

I'll take the pick this year. At worst, you can trade it for a 1st round pick next year. Hoping Memphis sucks next year seems really optimistic.
 

BigSoxFan

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You a Pistons fan or was BSF not making a Darko reference?

I'll take the pick this year. At worst, you can trade it for a 1st round pick next year. Hoping Memphis sucks next year seems really optimistic.
Pistons won in 2004 and Darko was picked in 2003. Sadly, I was making a different, more tragic reference.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pistons won in 2004 and Darko was picked in 2003. Sadly, I was making a different, more tragic reference.
Ahhh. Len. For some reason I thought the Pistons won and then had a top pick but they lost in the ECF and had the 2nd pick.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ahhh. Len. For some reason I thought the Pistons won and then had a top pick but they lost in the ECF and had the 2nd pick.
Yup although the parallels are the same. If they had picked Carmelo, Wade, or Bosh instead of Darko, they almost surely win another title or two.
 

benhogan

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You a Pistons fan or was BSF not making a Darko reference?

I'll take the pick this year. At worst, you can trade it for a 1st round pick next year. Hoping Memphis sucks next year seems really optimistic.
Len Bias was every bit as good as James Worthy...crushing

Memphis could mirror Sacramento of a year ago
 

Cesar Crespo

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Len Bias was every bit as good as James Worthy...crushing

Memphis could mirror Sacramento of a year ago
You do know the Kings are projected to get only the 12th pick in the draft and there's a chance they still make the playoffs. The Kings pick this year isn't going to be all that much better than it was last year.

It's a misnomer. If you want to take the chance of "rolling it over" because you think the draft will be stronger. ok. That's a big chance tho.
 

benhogan

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You do know the Kings are projected to get only the 12th pick in the draft and there's a chance they still make the playoffs. The Kings pick this year isn't going to be all that much better than it was last year.

It's a misnomer. If you want to take the chance of "rolling it over" because you think the draft will be stronger. ok. That's a big chance tho.
since I listed that, yea. Memphis will continue to be on the playoff fringe with perfect health. GS will be back next season

also roster crunch

and teams won't be quick to deal 2020 1sts for 2021 1st
 

benhogan

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You do know the Kings are projected to get only the 12th pick in the draft and there's a chance they still make the playoffs. The Kings pick this year isn't going to be all that much better than it was last year.

It's a misnomer. If you want to take the chance of "rolling it over" because you think the draft will be stronger. ok. That's a big chance tho.
Besides 2020 being a crappy draft, I don't see Memphis in the playoffs next season

Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, Denver, OKC, Utah, Dallas all clearly better than Memphis

With health improvement: New Orleans, GS, Sacramento, Portland will be better next season

I'd expect Phoenix, Minn, Spurs to suck but they could be a pain in the neck.

Memphis needs perfect health next season to compete for the 8th spot. They outperformed compared to their NetDiff. Ja Morant plays with abandon, if he goes down they are probably the worst team in the WC.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Besides 2020 being a crappy draft, I don't see Memphis in the playoffs next season

Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, Denver, OKC, Utah, Dallas all clearly better than Memphis

With health improvement: New Orleans, GS, Sacramento, Portland will be better next season

I'd expect Phoenix, Minn, Spurs to suck but they could be a pain in the neck.

Memphis needs perfect health next season to compete for the 8th spot. They outperformed compared to their NetDiff. Ja Morant plays with abandon, if he goes down they are probably the worst team in the WC.
They'd be adding one of the top 4 players in the draft and have tons of money to spend in FA. I don't think it matters anyway, the pick is going to convey at 12-14 and we're going to draft Romeo Langford 2.0. Hopefully 1 or both work out.
 

lovegtm

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They'd be adding one of the top 4 players in the draft and have tons of money to spend in FA. I don't think it matters anyway, the pick is going to convey at 12-14 and we're going to draft Romeo Langford 2.0. Hopefully 1 or both work out.
So you're right that the overwhelming odds are that the pick conveys, so this is all likely moot.

However, 2020 is a very weak draft for top-end talent. It's not at all a given that whoever Memphis picks will come in and contribute much.

And for FA, Memphis has almost no money to spend. They ate up all their salary flexibility in the various deadline deals they did.

When you factor in GS being back, NO probably being good, and the draft being way better, I'd prefer to roll the pick over. But again, it's incredibly likely that this is a 12-14 pick this year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It would basically require the Memphis Grizzlies to jump in the draft 3 years in a row for the Celtics to get a pick that's much better than 12-14.

Quality of draft does matter but 12-14 picks are Romeo Langford types.

edit: I guess there would be an outside chance Memphis completely collapsed.
 

nighthob

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It would basically require the Memphis Grizzlies to jump in the draft 3 years in a row for the Celtics to get a pick that's much better than 12-14.

Quality of draft does matter but 12-14 picks are Romeo Langford types.

edit: I guess there would be an outside chance Memphis completely collapsed.
There have been a couple of reclassifications and possibly one more that make 2021 a lot more attractive. Also with the new flatter odds it’s not quite as unlikely.

I’m expecting one of the lottery teams to fall in love with a guy and surrender a ‘21 pick anyway. A guy like Patrick Williams or Precious Achiuwa who both have serous upside based on their size/length/athleticism/motor combination.
 

benhogan

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It would basically require the Memphis Grizzlies to jump in the draft 3 years in a row for the Celtics to get a pick that's much better than 12-14.

Quality of draft does matter but 12-14 picks are Romeo Langford types.

edit: I guess there would be an outside chance Memphis completely collapsed.
IDK it's not really all that controversial to want

an unprotected 1st round pick in a good draft (2021) VS
a protected 1st round pick in a bad draft (2020)
 

Cesar Crespo

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IDK it's not really all that controversial to want

an unprotected 1st round pick in a good draft (2021) VS
a protected 1st round pick in a bad draft (2020)
No one said it was. It's just not turning into that top pick people wanted it to be. This is also why the Kings and Memphis picks never had has much value as we thought they did. We were spoiled with the result of the Nets trade.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Here's a question, how may times would you "rollover" a 10-14 pick in hopes of a top 3 pick the following year? In perpetuity? Would it matter if your team was good or bad?

Or how far would you be willing to fall from 10 for a 2.4%-6.2% chance at a top 4 pick? All the way to 30?
 

nighthob

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In this case there’s pretty much zero chance that Memphis adds a roleplayer and vaults into the top 10 of the entire league. They’re barely holding on to the eighth spot in a year that the West has been ravaged by injury. In 2021 the Warriors, Blazers, and Pelicans are likely to be at full strength and Memphis will again be a lottery team.

And while it’s nice to dream on a top 4 pick in ‘21, most people are pointing out that a late lottery pick in ‘21 is likely going to yield a much better player than one this year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm guessing most people would take a 3-6% chance at a top 4 pick and a 94-97% chance at the 30 pick than a 100% chance at a pick between 10-14 if given the choice anyway.
 

Euclis20

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There's also the consideration that, in a vacuum, a pick this year is worth more next year because they will be able to contribute sooner. Tatum and Brown mean that the team will be a competitor for the next 5-6 years, but Kembra will only get worse, Hayward (or whomever takes his spot if he leaves) will be a downgrade, and Smart might be gone when his contract is up in 2 years. I'm not optimistic that the young guys on the roster (Romeo, Edwards, Grant) will be able to make up the difference. There is utility in getting a getting a [potentially] inferior player a year earlier, as this team is positioned to be a title contender right now.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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If a star becomes available at some point, you’d rather have the pick to be able to outbid other good teams. Even if it’s unknown where a 2021 pick ends up, a trading partner knows it would likely be better than another good team that can offer only their own picks.

Of course, Golden State is now out there with Minnesota’s 2021 pick so there is some competition.

The Nets really were an incredible gold mine. What a result.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And just like that, Memphis wins 3 in a row and NO loses 3 in a row. NO 5 games back now. If there's any good news, it's that Sacramento didn't lose any ground.

NO 5 back with 20 games left
Kings 3.5 back with 21 games left
SA 4 back, 22 games left
Portland 3.5 back, 19 games left

Memphis magic number 17 or 18 depending on tie breaker stuff that I'm not aware of.

That's the problem with teams with losing records/bad teams. A 4-5 game winning streak is the difference between picking 4th or 11th. This year, 5 1/2 games separate the 2nd worst team and the 8th worst. 3.5 games separate picks 9-14.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Memphis plays @ SA once, NO twice (1 home, 1 road), @ Portland twice, Kings 0 times.

Portland plays SAC 1, Memphis twice

Kings play SA twice and NO twice

SA plays Memphis once, Sac twice, NO 3 times

NO plays Memphis twice, SA 3 times, Kings twice.


NO has an "easy schedule" but 7 of their games left are against teams challenging them for the last playoff spot.
 

NomarsFool

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I would doubt they would change anything with the draft. Teams have worked hard all season to suck. It wouldn't be fair for them to go out and win one series and all of a sudden they are out of the lottery :)
 

benhogan

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Well it appears this 22 team play-in gives the Celtics a chance at a lottery pick

 

BigMike

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look let them have their 8 games and if anyone can make up the 3.5 game gap, then they deserve to pass the Grizz and make it in.

But in no way should the Grizz, or Orlando in the East have to participate in some sort of play in scenario, where they are not credited for the substantial lead they had when the season stopped
 

benhogan

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look let them have their 8 games and if anyone can make up the 3.5 game gap, then they deserve to pass the Grizz and make it in.

But in no way should the Grizz, or Orlando in the East have to participate in some sort of play in scenario, where they are not credited for the substantial lead they had when the season stopped
I'm rooting for a Pels vs Grizz play-in game (Ja vs Zion). Winner gets Bron
 

NomarsFool

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Still no timetable for Zion's return. It seems like he's getting regularly tested while out of the bubble, which will speed his return when he comes back.
 

Imbricus

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I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what we're rooting for with the Grizzlies. To drop out of the playoffs and be a lottery team: sure, I get that. Obviously it would be great if they fell as far as possible, which probably isn't that far with the shortened schedule. But do we really want them to win the right lottery balls to pick near the top? If that's the case, the pick doesn't convey (as it's top six protected), and the Celts have an unprotected pick next year, but then what are you looking at? A team with a bunch of talented young players, including Morant and a newly added top lottery pick, who will be expected to do even better (barring some bad luck)? That doesn't seem like a desirable outcome.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what we're rooting for with the Grizzlies. To drop out of the playoffs and be a lottery team: sure, I get that. Obviously it would be great if they fell as far as possible, which probably isn't that far with the shortened schedule. But do we really want them to win the right lottery balls to pick near the top? If that's the case, the pick doesn't convey (as it's top six protected), and the Celts have an unprotected pick next year, but then what are you looking at? A team with a bunch of talented young players, including Morant and a newly added top lottery pick, who will be expected to do even better (barring some bad luck)? That doesn't seem like a desirable outcome.
Young teams don’t always progress in a linear fashion. I am 100% rooting for the Grizz to miss the playoffs and land a top 6 pick so that we get unprotected 2021 pick. There are a lot of good teams out West so I could see them missing playoffs next year and then you have shot at top 4 pick.
 

Imbricus

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Fair enough point that they don't always progress in linear fashion (see "Sacramento Kings"), but Morant looks like he's going to be a game-changer type of talent, and he's only 20. Not sure I want to see what they can do with him plus a top 4 pick, plus everyone else they have ... but I guess there is a dice-roll element to all of this, and key Grizzlies could get injured next year, or ...