Not sure but Suggs rumors were on Twitter last night as the Magic took two guards.
Kristaps Porzingis to Celtics!!!!!
- Thread starter SoxJox
- Start date
There are probably 20 point guards that are better than him, I can't see any way he is as high as even 50th in the league
You have to really, really like his defensive versatility and performance to put him that high. I just didn't see that he was that guy last year. Maybe he'll get back to it in Memphis, but right now it's like he has the versatility on both ends, but without the primary ooomph (creating offense, guarding his own position as opposed to a couple spots up).
To be fair to me, I don’t watch a lot of Wizards games. I threw on some Zinger highlights from last season and he’s pretty damn impressive. Actually, in a weird way, makes me think less of Luka (or maybe it was Kidd’s fault?).
Cautiously optimistic about how he will fit in with the Cs.
Cautiously optimistic about how he will fit in with the Cs.
I think to call someone even a borderline All-Star he should have made at least one All-Star team.
He kinda looks like an upper middle class man's Nikola Jokic, doesn't he? Similar skill profile: agility, not relying on sheer strength but also very multi-dimensional on offense. He's not the passer Jokic is (who is), but it's a strength and opponents can't help on him without risking a pass for a wide open shot.
During the ill-fated comeback in the Miami series, we were wondering how the hell we were possibly going to match up with Denver. As we saw, their size was just too much for Miami, to say nothing of being able to slow down Jokic. The only guy who even slowed him down a little in the playoffs was Anthony Davis. But given their styles, I bet Kris can do about as well as anyone against Jokic. And it gives us the size to go toe to toe with Denver.
There's really so much to like here, other than the contract we're going to have to give KP after this year. I just wish we could rent back Smart for a season or two, too
The reporting so far is that he's down to sign an extension this summer. His max is 2/77, which is about 25% of the cap next year. That's totally fine for this caliber of player.He kinda looks like an upper middle class man's Nikola Jokic, doesn't he? Similar skill profile: agility, not relying on sheer strength but also very multi-dimensional on offense. He's not the passer Jokic is (who is), but it's a strength and opponents can't help on him without risking a pass for a wide open shot.
During the ill-fated comeback in the Miami series, we were wondering how the hell we were possibly going to match up with Denver. As we saw, their size was just too much for Miami, to say nothing of being able to slow down Jokic. The only guy who even slowed him down a little in the playoffs was Anthony Davis. But given their styles, I bet Kris can do about as well as anyone against Jokic. And it gives us the size to go toe to toe with Denver.
There's really so much to like here, other than the contract we're going to have to give KP after this year. I just wish we could rent back Smart for a season or two, too
This trade really feels like the first Stevens White Whale if the reporting about the process around it (having the Grizzlies/Smart option as a backup) is accurate.
Brad just really wanted Porzingis and if you get the 2023 version its easy to see why. That said, 2023 is top-tick Porzingis in terms of games played and more importantly production.
There are risks to everything in life but for this particular transaction they include injuries as well as Porzingis reverting to less efficient offensive production. Last season really looks like an outlier so people should probably expect something more like a 56% TS and 35-36% from deep. Its still decent and maybe he gets more efficient on a talented Cs roster but I would bet on retracement here.
Brad just really wanted Porzingis and if you get the 2023 version its easy to see why. That said, 2023 is top-tick Porzingis in terms of games played and more importantly production.
There are risks to everything in life but for this particular transaction they include injuries as well as Porzingis reverting to less efficient offensive production. Last season really looks like an outlier so people should probably expect something more like a 56% TS and 35-36% from deep. Its still decent and maybe he gets more efficient on a talented Cs roster but I would bet on retracement here.
I suspect KP would not have opted-in to his final year without some assurances he'd receive the extension.
Stein is writing that it is "strongly expected." https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/kristaps-porzingis-two-year-contract-extension/
Obviously none of us know what free agent feelers he was getting but it seems at least possible that KP could have gotten more money if he went to free agency.
Porzingis is definitely a risk, but one thing I think is important to note is that he has pretty drastically improved his game the last few years. He's committed far more to being a capable player in the post. He's started to use his height more effectively in just shooting over smaller defenders (the Durant), and he's improved as a roll man in PnR, where he used to be purely a pop guy. On D, he's gotten better at positioning and not chasing blocks.
People missed some of it because all of the injuries and the disappointing pairing with Luka mixed in, but quietly he's been really improving his skillset and maturing as a player.
It is really something to consider what the offense is going to look like with Porzingis sharing the court with the Jays. He really adds a ton of versatility to the offense.
Like a gigantic Toni Kukoc. (I don't think Jokic fits as a comparison).
Like a gigantic Toni Kukoc. (I don't think Jokic fits as a comparison).
Porzingis' post game is indeed a significant evolution for him personally, and a material addition for the Celts.
In terms of paint pressure, they had TL lobs and Smart post-ups as the primary way they created pressure down low---and each was matchup and defense-dependent. Adding a legit post-up player gives them a different look and weapon, and his ability to credibly pop outside as well means you aren't trading off 5-out looks with ability to pressure the paint on offense.
Neither Jay has really developed a post game, and that's ok but does hamper the offense's flexibility. Adding someone who can create and force defensive adjustments down low is very exciting.
In terms of paint pressure, they had TL lobs and Smart post-ups as the primary way they created pressure down low---and each was matchup and defense-dependent. Adding a legit post-up player gives them a different look and weapon, and his ability to credibly pop outside as well means you aren't trading off 5-out looks with ability to pressure the paint on offense.
Neither Jay has really developed a post game, and that's ok but does hamper the offense's flexibility. Adding someone who can create and force defensive adjustments down low is very exciting.
I've watched him play a bit so what you are saying tracks.
But again, last season was his best year in terms of output and GP. Stevens is betting that this is all sustainable. We can dream of banners but its also possible that he reverts more to the player he has been for most of his career across a 40-50 games played season.
That may be perfectly fine too but its also not some of the rosy production that's been largely assumed here.
But here's what I think you're missing: he'd be betting Smart's games-played production and health was sustainable too if he kept him.
I would argue that the guy (Smart) they traded for him has also missed a lot of time in his career. The last four seasons, Smart has played 60-48-71-61. 20-21 is obviously COVID stuff, but when compared to Zingis, his GP numbers don't look that impressive: 57-43-61-65 is really not that much worse than Smart's numbers. It's fewer games, don't get me wrong, but it's not that many fewer. Smart played 3 more one season, five more the next, 10 more the next, and four fewer last year. Porzingis is not as fragile as Durant, say, who has only played more than 50 games once in the last four seasons.
I don't think Smart's a bad player or really all that overvalued, maybe I overstated my case elsewhere. But I do think Porzingis is a better fit for our roster. He shores us up at a position where we have a ton of injury risk right now, while at the same time improving the offense and the defense.
We will miss Smart -- for his antics, his skills, and his defense -- but the league has a lot of tough 2-guards we can shop for, and a ton of them are undervalued and looking for the right situation.
I feel the need to push back on the games played narrative, as I think it's far more nuanced than simply saying he's averaging 40-50 games per season.
He played 48 out of 55 games in 2017-18 until he suffered the ACL injury. By all accounts, that injury is fully healed.
His first season back in 2019-20, his minutes were carefully managed and he played 57 out of a possible 75 games, which translates to a very reasonable 62 games over a normal season.
The following season was a difficult one due to the meniscus tear suffered in the prior season's playoffs. 43 out of 72 games, which translates to 49 over a normal season.
He was limited to 51 games the 2021-22 season, partly due to injuries (back, knee bruise), partly due to the trade (Wizards put him on the shelf the final 2 games). Scale this back to 50 games given that his teams played 84.
So, since his ACL injury, he has played the equivalent of 62, 49, 50, and 65 games. Significantly higher than "40-50". Marcus Smart has played in a similar number of regular season games over the past 4 seasons. Celtics are more than fine if they get 56-57 games out of KP this coming season.
I agree, but I dont focus on the games missed, as much the games played/mileage on the clock. Someone's Pedroia comp is quite close. (or as close as you can get comparing these two sports). I think that, in his head, Stevens combined what he was losing in Smart today (considerable) with how he was projecting him going forward --- which (probably) was along the lines of "we've seen the best of him and at his age and mileage, he can't keep going at the pace he needs to go at to make him as valuable as his best self. At least not for long." I think the (legitimate) questions about whether the Celtics will get "the best of Porzingis" going forward are almost offset by the question of whether (or how often) the Celtics were going to get "the best of Marcus" going forward. Given his (IMO) offensive maturation, but defensive decline, Marcus seems to be a prime example of a player whose body starts going south just as his head "has all the test answers." (h/t that Brady guy).
NINE years of just about the most physical play possible at his position is a lot.
Both of the above posts are correct in that Smart has missed time too and that 40-50 games may be light.
But they are also pushing back on the fact that Porzingis has had injury issues in his career. Maybe he is indeed past them and will give them 60-70 games. Maybe it won't matter either given their frontcourt depth. However its a risk along with Porzingis reverting to the less efficient version he has been for most of his career. I find that acknowledging both upside and downside outcomes to be helpful but I get that others prefer to assume max production.
But they are also pushing back on the fact that Porzingis has had injury issues in his career. Maybe he is indeed past them and will give them 60-70 games. Maybe it won't matter either given their frontcourt depth. However its a risk along with Porzingis reverting to the less efficient version he has been for most of his career. I find that acknowledging both upside and downside outcomes to be helpful but I get that others prefer to assume max production.
How will we know if this is true? And what happens if the C's play better as a team next year.. does it mean that Marcus wasn't the heart of the team? How is that measured?
I don't assume max production from Porzingis. I think to me it's really simple... max production from Porzingis is a LOT better than the best of Marcus Smart. Healthy Porzingis for more than 65 games would be a top 20-25 player in the league, honestly..... probably better than Jaylen Brown. I assume less than full Porzingis, and think (especially with our roster) that's a really valuable piece. Same way Horford is really valuable, but can't bear a full time load. As long as you keep them realatively healthy come playoff time you have a significantly better shot at a title to me.
Struggling with this paragraph:
Is the bolded sentence missing a "not" (i.e., "would not be wise") or is the insinuation that Porzingis is such a good shooter on contested threes that his down year on uncontested looks is probably anomalous?
Yeah, guys buddies get traded all the time. If anything I wonder if there is some degree to which the idea that anyone could go but Marcus would be a bigger problem... Marcus was the 4th or 5th best player on this team, guaranteeing him a roster spot over better players sets up an idea that it's not a meritocracy, but instead it's who Brad likes.
I believe the argument is basically that he had a down year on uncontested 3s and that is a type of shot you expect to revert to the mean more than any other since it is not being impacted by defender play, so that was a "unlucky" rather than skill based number.
It can be noticed if they are disorganized and ineffective on defense and lose several more games than this year or are bounced out of the playoffs early. If they play better as a team next year then obviously my fear will prove to be unfounded.
Maybe a minor point but in the wear and tear department, Smart has also played in an additional 63 games over the past four years thanks to the Cs success. KP has played in ten extra games over that span. If you look at the period beginning when KP joined the league it is 105 games (for Smart) to ... still ten for KP.
Understandably, we’re all focused on how KP will help open up the floor for the Jays el al.
But I’m excited to see what KP does with the additional space he’s going to have when he’s out there with Tatum and Brown.
But I’m excited to see what KP does with the additional space he’s going to have when he’s out there with Tatum and Brown.
I think it's just poorly written. I'm reading it that they should bank on him "establishing a new normal" based on the fact that he hit a low % of uncontested threes. That abnormality cancels out him "making more shots than he expected to."
To be fair, I'm calling out recency bias with that post, particularly that Marcus didn't have a bad playoffs. Marcus had 1.5 bad series, most likely related to an injury. Much like Tatum didn't suck in last year's playoffs--he sucked for 1 series.
I'm being myopic here through. And this isn't aimed at you whatsoever, but some folks fall into different buckets than just the recency bias bucket. There's the "I never liked Marcus anyway" bucket. There's those that take as gospel the anti-Marcus bias on basketball twitterverse media. There are some that are so damned psyched about Porzingis that they're downplaying what Marcus can do. Calling out only the recency bias is too narrow. Hell, nobody was anti-Tatum last year really and just IMO dumped on his finals performance out of anger (and maybe some basketball twitterverse influence).
Marcus will be fine in Memphis, and the Celtics will be fine too.
The highlight video with all of the back cuts and KP passing out of the high post... I think Brown especially is going to have a field day on offense.
Just have him be healthy for the playoffs. Anything above that is gravy in my mind.
To my eye Marcus freelanced a lot on D.. for better or worse. At his best it was great.. but especially in the playoffs it seemed like it didn't work out at a number of key moments.
If KP and Timelord are on the court at the same time around the rim I think it's going to be really tough for other teams in the lane.
Is there a stat similar to WAR for basketball?
Yeah, I'm optimistic because I think it balances out our roster better & provides a lot more upside, but who knows?
There are certainty a wide variety of fervently held beliefs that people have on a wide variety of subjects that may or may not be evidence-based in any way, shape or form.
I'm with Cellar-door. I'm fine with him playing 50-60, as I was willing to accept the possibility that Smart gets hurt and only plays 60 given what he added to the team. I'm willing to accept the possibility that Porzingis has a down-year offensively. But what Porzingis does bring to the table - a seven footer who knows how to protect the rim an defend the pick and roll - is just more valuable to me than Smart's free-safety stuff. And if the offensive improvement is real, than the upside for this deal is positively enormous.
That said, I'm not even really as excited about his offense or the upside as I am about plugging the gaping hole at center we had (yes, yes, prom night). At the end of the day I think they're both winning basketball players, only the Celtics needed a center badly and already had four point guards, one of who is admittedly not rotation quality in Pritchard (notwithstanding the comparison I made to FVV a couple years ago, which I have got deserving shit for ever since), but two of who are starting caliber in Brogdon and White.
I don't think Porzingis guarantees us a championship. I'm not assuming that he will be 100% healthy. I think if he's on the floor, the value he adds will more than cover for the loss of Marcus. Will we miss him? Sure. But we all wanted insurance against TL coming apart at the joints and Horford aging, and in order to do that, we had to give something up. It sucks, but them is the breaks.
It was my perception that Smart had lost a step, and my fear that heading into his 30's those injuries might accumulate or he might lose a step or his intensity on defense. That perception/fear might be incorrect. Perhaps he ages like Chris Paul - still effective defensively but missing chunks of time here and there. Or Tony Allen for that matter. Good for him, if so! Regardless, I think Porzingis is not only a better fit for this roster but exactly the sort of thing we needed.
I would consider playing poorly in half the games/series to be not a particularly good overall performance
Definitely agreed on this. For the last few years I've been hoping he turned into a jumbo version of Kyle Lowry. Lowry didn't make his first all star team until age 28 (in his 9th season) on his 3rd team, then made the all star game 6 straight times. If his shooting was just a little bit better, that could've been Marcus' future. Could still be I guess, but he's gonna be just as far down the offensive pecking order in Memphis, at best the 4th option behind Ja/Bane/JJJ.
That's fair.
I guess my point is that if you're judging a guy with over a hundred playoff games over nine years in a place, harping on the last ten of them is recency bias. Frankly if it isn't, I don't know wtf is.
Look at the posts here and online about Tatum after the finals last year. Guy came back and went 27/11/5 in the playoffs this year at 59ts. Judging a guy by a bad couple of weeks is gonna have pretty wide error bars.
Edit: fwiw I'm pro-KP/MS trade
I think the biggest thing KP will add is the ability to exploit mismatches. Boston's roster wasn't really equipped to really punish teams on a switch because that's just not what they do (in a way, the thing that makes them so switchable/versatile on defense limits them for the same reasons on offense). Tatum's not really a blow by guy athletically, and he's not often going to bully another player in the post because he favors face-ups. We've discussed ad nauseum Jaylen's limitations here, and none of White/Smart/Brogdon are the types to salivate when a big is switched onto them. Time Lord doesn't have a post game, and Al's has seemingly disintegrated with age and more focus on 3s.
So I don't think it'll be a regular part of the offense, but for the times (especially in the playoffs) when things are grinding down, it'll be nice to know that we can get a mismatch with KP on a small (like Strus/Lowry/Vincent) and let a team like Miami know that they can't get away with that. That's an element that they've been missing in high-leverage situations, and I think it's an important option that may not show up in season-long stats.
So I don't think it'll be a regular part of the offense, but for the times (especially in the playoffs) when things are grinding down, it'll be nice to know that we can get a mismatch with KP on a small (like Strus/Lowry/Vincent) and let a team like Miami know that they can't get away with that. That's an element that they've been missing in high-leverage situations, and I think it's an important option that may not show up in season-long stats.
Is anyone at all concerned that when playoff time comes KP is going to be hunted mercilessly in the pick and roll? By losing Marcus and likely Grant we are going to lose a lot of our "switch everything" defensive identity. And KP, while a very good rim protector does not possess good lateral quickness on the perimeter. Maybe it's not a huge deal, Denver just won the championship with Jokic who has the same problem. But this is undoubtedly how the Celtics are going to be attacked in the playoffs. Let's hope he can hold his own out there and doesn't give up as much as he gives us.
We already can't switch everything, we played drop a lot last year and will with Porzingis. In terms of team's hunting him.... good luck, it will likely go much like teams hunting prime Horford did. Sure occasionally you'll get a quick guy who beats him off the dribble, but mostly he'll just slide his feet, let you take the jumper with a 7'3" hand in your face.
Honestly I thought last year we tried to switch too much, we gave worse matchups because we just surrendered a switch. It was a major topic in the Heat series early, that we let Butler get the matchups he wanted by switching everything, and we eventually went away from it and fought over more screens, played some drop, etc. Switch everything is tough to do well, and our past success with it was largely built on Horford being one of the most underrated defenders of all time.
Yeah, I mentioned this before but I am looking forward to seeing KP come off downscreens by a small or having JT and KP run PnR.
No more mercilessly than Jokic. I never thought a team with Jokic, Porter Jr., and Murray could win a championship because of their defensive shortcomings but the issue is not just to stop the opponents but it's to score more points than the opponents and DEN proved that they have an offense that is so efficient that it can make up for whatever defensive shortcomings their individual parts might have.
It's honestly pretty amazing that for all the reputations of each, Jokic held up well enough in drop that Denver could hang, and Joel Embiid got cooked right out of the playoffs.
Listening to Lowe on his podcasts, I'm beginning to think that one of the reasons MIA shot so well against BOS and not against DEN was that DEN's offense put so much pressure on MIA to score that it affected MIA's shooting. MIA shot free and easy against BOS because they were confident they could get stops when they needed to.
Lowe mentioned on his podcast that the Murray/Jokic PnR is so good that teams kind - and this is how Lowe put it - give up after a few games because there's just no real answer (yet).
I mentioned this before but BOS doesn't have a set that they can run when they absolutely, positively know that they need a basket. They would usually run a Smart/JT screen because the weakest defender was on Smart but teams would hedge to JT and Smart wasn't good enough to regularly punish the way the defenses morphed.
I'm excited to see a JT/KP PnR. That should pose a ton of problems for defenses. A lot more than BOS can pose right now.
Your point is a great one, and that plays into the C's end-of-game problems. Miami can get the ball to Butler, Philly to Embiid, Denver to Jokic, etc., and they'll generally either get a great shot for themselves or a teammate. The C's often have ended up settling for contested sidestep/stepback 3s by Tatum. As his post-up game continues to improve, that could generate higher-quality shots, but Porzingis should help immensely in the meantime.
I think the end of game possessions thing is one where people's impressions are heavily biased but the emotion involved in those types of situations. I think statistically the Celtics were actually pretty good in those gotta have it contexts.
Go watch how many Heat possessions had Butler throwing up garbage in close moments.
Hasn't it been well-documented—by others, not by me—that the C's have struggled to score in late-game situations and then have been prone to losing sizable fourth-quarter leads? I don't think I'm making that up.
Last edited:
I think people mean less the actual last play then late and close, Celtics were I believe the worst in the league late and close execution two years running