Kevin Love News and Rumors

[bowiac]

how well does that college VORP predict NBA performance? 

On it's face, not so good I'm sure. The best players tend to be 4 year seniors for one thing. The best players also tend to be the best shooters, which translates quite poorly to the NBA. There are other problems too - it's not trying to project NBA performance, it's just trying to measure NCAA performance (which are very different things).
 
There are metrics which are calibrated specifically to predict NBA performance, focusing more on things that do translate well, like steals, blocks, and assists. Pelton's WARP projections are like that, ranking Wiggins 19th among prospects who declared for the draft. That's hardly definitive either, given WARP doesn't know Wiggins is a super athlete (but does know his age). I think everyone would agree Wiggins was better than the 19th best draft prospect (I ranked him 3rd, behind Embiid and Exum). I was just giving VORP/ASPM for the idea that was only okay in college. Much of his draft status is because of projection about the future, rather than his NBA readiness now.

 

[ALiveH]

is Varejao on your hypothetical team, because he's a pretty good fit to allocate a bunch of minutes to.  Beyond that, get a spot-up shooter, a backup PG, a big body and a defensive specialist on vet minimums (or close to it) and what more do you need?

 

[bowiac]

is Varejao on your hypothetical team, because he's a pretty good fit to allocate a bunch of minutes to.  Beyond that, get a spot-up shooter, a backup PG, a big body and a defensive specialist on vet minimums (or close to it) and what more do you need?

He was not. Tric's hypo had the Cavs unloading everyone but those four guys. No salary left for Varejao. It's those four, and then nine league minimum guys.

 

[The Social Chair]

Yeah, saying Wiggins' floor is Kawhi Leonard is either really underrating Kawhi or overrating Wiggins. Kawhi just went head to head with the best player in the world and matched or outplayed him over multiple games. There is no way that what Kawhi has given the Spurs is Wiggins' "floor". I mean, c'mon.

 
Leonard is probably overrated now.  If a player like Paul George played like he did against OKC (and the first two Miami games) he'd have gotten killed by the media/fans. Leonard is not expected to carry his team offensively every night. He's a great defensive player and a good teams 3rd or 4th option offensively. So yes I'm comfortable saying Wiggin's floor is Leonard.

 

[knucklecup]

RT @ChrisMannixSI: One East NBA coach on K-Love: "If I'm Golden State, I trade Klay Thompson. If I'm Cleveland, I trade Andrew Wiggins. Kevin is that good."

I agree. I think Golden State, in particular, is insane with their intent to keep Thompson and give him a max contract. A decision we look back on a decade from now as to why Curry has never won a ring.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

RT @ChrisMannixSI: One East NBA coach on K-Love: "If I'm Golden State, I trade Klay Thompson. If I'm Cleveland, I trade Andrew Wiggins. Kevin is that good."

I agree. I think Golden State, in particular, is insane with their intent to keep Thompson and give him a max contract. A decision we look back on a decade from now as to why Curry has never won a ring.

 
I think they are going to offer up Klay, especially if they can get assurances that Love will extend.  Imho, that is why they "restarted" talks.  That said, I think the Cavs are going to be pressed to offer Wiggins as well.   The latter package is obviously going to be more compelling for the T-Wolves but again, how long will Love extend for them given LeBron's out?    

 

[radsoxfan]

 
 
A team of Love, LeBron, Wiggins, and Kyrie with scrubs would not be able to win.
 

 
I'll disagree with this as well.  I think that team is probably the favorite in the East and a definite title contender.
 
The real risks with such a top heavy team are injuries and Wiggins not being any good (of course these are both legit concerns).  But if they have those 4 healthy most the year, and Wiggins is at least a solid player and above average defender, they will be REALLY good.
 
Sure a good chunk of minutes will go to scrubs, but that happens with all teams.  The Heat have been the best team in the East for 4 years, and they've had plenty of scrubs getting minutes.  It's not the end of the world if your top 4 are healthy and that good. Their biggest problem would be inside depth against teams with decent post play, though there aren't very many of those teams. 
 
Throw in a couple Mike Miller type vet signings and thats really all you need.  I'm all about roster depth and trying to get value out of your 5th-9th players normally, but that much firepower would probably be enough.  If you build that framework, some decent enough non D-League level scrubs will come to fill out the roster. 

 

[bowiac]

Throw in a couple Mike Miller type vet signings and thats really all you need.  I'm all about roster depth and trying to get value out of your 5th-9th players normally, but that much firepower would probably be enough.  If you build that framework, some decent enough non D-League level scrubs will come to fill out the roster. 

I mean, it's all about the limits of the hypo. Mike Miller signed for $2.75M/year, far in excess of what this hypothetical team could offer him. If we assume Love is signing for like $12M/year instead however, and the team is filled out with a few vets like Miller, then yes, they'll probably be fine.
 
In the hypo as described however, with league minimum only around, we're not talking about roster depth, we're talking about half the team's minutes being filled by scrubs. That's fairly devastating. A lot depends on how good Kyrie and Wiggins are too of course. I don't much care for Kyrie, but he could improve certainly.
 
My optimistic back of the envelope calculation, projecting Kyrie and Wiggins to be as good as year 2 Lillard and Paul George, filling in the back 10,000 minutes of their roster with Norris Cole types, has the starters providing 952 points above average of value, and then the Norris Cole guys giving back 610 of those points and thus outscoring opponents by 342 points over the season, which would make them about as good as last year's Heat team. That's actually better than I'd have guessed to be honest. To the extent they can find decent veterans (worse than Miller, better than Cole), then that should improve as well.
 
On the other hand, last year's Heat team was fairly comfortably eliminated from the playoffs, and rated as only the 7th best team in baseball on strength of schedule adjusted margin of victory.

 

[bowiac]

Bosh's strikezone would pose major problems I admit, but I bet you Chalmers has a nasty sinker, and LeBron hits dingers.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
My optimistic back of the envelope calculation, projecting Kyrie and Wiggins to be as good as year 2 Lillard and Paul George, filling in the back 10,000 minutes of their roster with Norris Cole types, has the starters providing 952 points above average of value, and then the Norris Cole guys giving back 610 of those points and thus outscoring opponents by 342 points over the season, which would make them about as good as last year's Heat team. That's actually better than I'd have guessed to be honest. To the extent they can find decent veterans (worse than Miller, better than Cole), then that should improve as well.
 

 
Without getting into the specifics of how you got to those exact numbers, that's about what I would have assumed.  Likely the best team in the East.
 
It shouldn't be too tough to improve on Norris Cole at a few spots as well, even if Miller types are out of their range. 
 
I don't think thats the best team in NBA history by any means, but a team with those 4 healthy is going to win a ton of games, even with a bunch of scrubs.

 

[Auger34]

Simmons wrote about this for Grantland today and I have to agree with what he wrote. It seems the best course of action for both the T'Wolves and Cavs is to wait and see. Maybe Bennett and Waiters blow up this year and they won't even have to include Wiggins to get Love. On the other side of the coin, it's pretty clear that Glen Taylor and Flipmode would prefer to keep Love and hope they pull a Blazers this year and convince him to sign a long term deal.

 

[ALiveH]

I haven't read the article but I could take the other side of that argument pretty easily.
 
that's not what's best for the Cavs.  the clock is ticking on Lebron and if they can make a trade for Love they can contend this year.  If it's a midseason trade, there's a very low probability they can build the chemistry to make a deep playoff run this year.
 
Since it's not what's best for the cavs, it's also not what's best for the wolves, the Cavs would not be willing to give up as much in the middle of the year, since they lose 1 year of possible contention.
 
If the Cavs believe that Bennett & Waiters are cheap call options, then they should definitely not be incluing them in the deal (selling low) & if they're that undervalued, the wolves shouldn't be insisting on their inclusion either.

 

[moly99]

 
Fantastic. I'm wondering who Ainge has in mind for his third wheel.

 
Who is the second wheel? Rondo on a full max contract? Yuck.

 

[TomRicardo]

is Varejao on your hypothetical team, because he's a pretty good fit to allocate a bunch of minutes to.  Beyond that, get a spot-up shooter, a backup PG, a big body and a defensive specialist on vet minimums (or close to it) and what more do you need?

 
Being it can't even happen now (Mike Miller), it was a moot point because you could not fill all those holes with vet. minimums.
 
It was not a realistic scenario.  More realistically is a sign and trade. But if Love blows up the timberwolves spot why would they do him the favor?

 

[Boon]

A league source said on July 17 that the Cavs are now willing to trade the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft.  Wiggins, a 6-foot-8, 194-pounder, has played well at the Las Vegas Summer League, where he’s become a crowd favorite. The former Kansas star has averaged 13.7 points and 3.0 rebounds in the Cavs’ first three games. However, he’s shooting just 37.8 percent from the field. Up until this point, it was assumed the Cavs wanted to hang onto Wiggins, largely because of comments made by Coach David Blatt. However, a source said James wants the 6-10, 250-pound Love on the roster. And, what James wants, he normally gets.

The latest offer could include Wiggins, power forward Anthony Bennett and a first-round pick. Center Brendan Haywood might be included in the deal to make it work contractually.
 

 
http://www.news-herald.com/sports/20140717/cleveland-cavaliers-now-willing-to-include-wiggins-in-kevin-love-trade-offer

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Cavs make that trade and then sign Ray Allen and are probably done, right?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Flip's in the driver's seat here; funny how things turn.  He's going to get whatever he wants from CLE because LBJ has made it known that he wants Love.  I wouldn't be surprised if Flip got Wiggins, Bennett, Waiters, and a #1 pick.  Not a bad way to restart the franchise.

 

[swingin val]

Wiggins, Bennett, and a #1 is a huge haul. If that was on the table the deal would already be done

 

[Devizier]

for depth reasons alone, the Cavaliers have to get someone like Brewer, Martin, or even Mbah Moute from the Timberwolves. Otherwise they won't have enough bodies to fill a rotation (except with 10-day contracts).

 

[wutang112878]

that's not what's best for the Cavs.  the clock is ticking on Lebron and if they can make a trade for Love they can contend this year.  If it's a midseason trade, there's a very low probability they can build the chemistry to make a deep playoff run this year.

 
I dont know about this.  Year 1 of the Big 3 era was thought of as a 'they are going to need some time to make this work' type of deal and we won a title.  And we faced the Lakers who had Gasol for all of 27 games before the playoffs began.  Talent can overcome a lot.

 

[moly99]

Leonard overrated? Yeah, right. He's a 23 year-old elite perimeter defender with steadily-increasing offensive capabilities who just more than held his own again the best player on the planet on the biggest stage the NBA can offer.

 
On one end of the court. Tony Allen has done more than hold his own in defending against Kevin Durant in a series.
 

On offense, I expect Wiggins to exceed Leonard but I also don't think Leonard is near his prime offensive output.

 
That's kind of the point The Social Chair was making. Right now he is the fourth option on offense and able to put 80% of his energy into playing defense.

 

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/489917965043646464

 

[dcmissle]

As long as they don't get too greedy, Minnesota will remain in the driver's seat and have been all along. Cleveland woke up re Wiggins.

 

[Sprowl]

Wiggins, Bennett, and a #1 is a huge haul. If that was on the table the deal would already be done

 
Really? A Love-Wiggins exchange? Bennett is chump change, and a #1 from Cleveland is little better than one of the 76ers' surplus second-rounders. I'm thinking Minnesota can get more than this.

 

[moly99]

Did Tony Allen score 29, 20, and 22 points in those games against Durant? Also, you have no idea what Kawhi Leonard's true offensive capabilities are at this point. Just because the Spurs' system only asks him to be the 4th option doesn't mean that's all he's capable.

We'll obviously have to agree to disagree on this one.

 
I am not arguing that Leonard isn't better than Tony Allen. I am making the argument that comparing him to the great two way players in the game is comparing apples to oranges. (And thus that comparison is like saying that Tony Allen is one of the great players in the game based on his defensive performances vs the best players in the league.)
 
He scores his points within a system that gets him lots of open 3 point looks. The objection is not that he doesn't score points, but rather than right now he is not a major creative presence in the offense. He just has to hit the open corner 3's that Tony Parker, Manu, Duncan, etc create for him.
 
For the record I agree that he is capable of a lot more on offense, but that would almost certainly take away some of his defensive prowess. Just like it did to Lebron in Cleveland when they asked him to be the best player on the court on both of the offensive and defensive sides of the court.
 
Additionally, that should be a pretty good comparison for Wiggins if the Cavs keep him. Kyrie and Lebron should provide a lot of alley oops and open 3's for Wiggins, enabling him to put most of his focus on defending the other team's best player.
 

As long as they don't get too greedy, Minnesota will remain in the driver's seat and have been all along. Cleveland woke up re Wiggins.

 
I don't understand why people keep saying this. They have to get a deal done or they lose him for nothing. Meanwhile the list of competitive teams that can make a sensible deal is quite small. It's not like they have a list of six teams competing to win Love's services.
 
Consider the list of recent superstars to be traded. The only selling team that won was Orlando in the Howard to the Lakers trade. And even they won that trade by default as Howard spurned the Lakers for Houston and Bynum's knee injuries killed his chances with Philly.

 

[jose melendez]

Is it tampering for LeBron to have that conversation?
 
If not, tampering is getting border line meaningless and they should just allow it.

 

[bowiac]

I don't think we should assume Wiggins is going to be a great defender at the NBA level. He's athletic, but that's not the entirety of the job. Good defensive rookies are even rarer than good offensive rookies the last time I looked. I also disagree was just some kind open corner threes guy. He shot .372 from the corner vs. .379 from three overall. In all, 12% of his shots came from there, and 71% of his shots were twos overall. He's got a strong, but not spectacular handle, and finished around the rim at a high rate.
 
Kawhi's a hard guy to get a handle on, because almost every box score skill he has is like 75th percentile among NBA players, but other than his steals rate, nothing is 90th percentile. All the advanced metrics love him as result, but you eyeball him, and it's hard to figure why.
 
I think Wiggins would be lucky to be as good as Kawhi was last year, but I'm both very high on Kawhi, and a bit down on Wiggins.

 

[swingin val]

 
Really? A Love-Wiggins exchange? Bennett is chump change, and a #1 from Cleveland is little better than one of the 76ers' surplus second-rounders. I'm thinking Minnesota can get more than this.

More from who?

 

[axx]

Really? A Love-Wiggins exchange? Bennett is chump change, and a #1 from Cleveland is little better than one of the 76ers' surplus second-rounders. I'm thinking Minnesota can get more than this.

 
Problem is, I can't see Love going anywhere else now. If he stays, Minny gets nothing. And then signs with the Cavs.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Problem is, I can't see Love going anywhere else now. If he stays, Minny gets nothing. And then signs with the Cavs.

 
That might be the thing for the Cavs to do.  Just have LeBron pass along that the Cavs want Love and will sign him when he's a FA after this season.  It'll give the Cavs a chance to work the young guys in with LeBron, and then in 2015-16, their roster will include Irving, LeBron, Wiggins, Love, Varejao, Bennett, Waiters….holy crap.
 
That starting five.  All Varejao has to do is protect the rim and get rebounds and garbage buckets.  Love's D will be masked by the other four guys.  They would have three premier scoring options, and it would allow Wiggins to come along slowly.  Bennett (if he ever gets it together and Waiters off the bench could be some real firepower.  Wow.

 

[Sprowl]

More from who?

 
Moah to Minnesoter. Without Wiggins, Golden State should be able to outbid Cleveland, assuming a three-way with Boston's or Philadelphier's endless supply of draft picks .

 

[Marbleheader]

I think there's going to be tremendous pressure for LeBron to succeed in year one. At the least, making it to the finals. Getting Love now makes that goal much more attainable.

 

[ifmanis5]

Cleveland being Cleveland I think we all can see what's coming: the trade happens but Love gets hurt, Wiggins becomes a superstar and the Cavs don't have enough to beat Chicago.

 

[Sprowl]

But the rumored offer is Wiggins/Bennett/#1 pick. Golden State and Boston can't top that offer. Wiggins on a rookie deal is much more valuable than a soon-to-be-maxed Thompson, which is why swingin val was surprised at the opinion that Minnesota might be able to top that package somewhere else.

How about a package deal involving Thompson (and other assets, probably including Lee) from GS and some combination of unrestricted draft picks from Boston? I don't know exactly what return would make it worthwhile to the Celtics, but this looks like a Trader Ainge opportunity to me.

 

[dcmissle]

"People keep saying this" because The Wolves have no interest in becoming marginally better. Nor should they. Who is the potential HR? Wiggins. Hold our for him, and if you fail, you're in the lottery. Be willing to burn the village to save it.

And focus on Cleveland's downside. There is pressure to put best foot forward. You want to wait a year,? Fine. Lot's can happen in a year, much of it bad.

Quite simply, call their bluff.

 

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannixSI/status/489948800438394880

 

[Devizier]

I would rather have wiggins than Thompson, Lee, Sullinger, Olynyk and any of the Celtics' non Nets future picks combined.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Is it tampering for LeBron to have that conversation?
 
If not, tampering is getting border line meaningless and they should just allow it.

My first thought, not that I really care about tampering. Minnesota probably gave permission anyway.

 

[snowmanny]

ESPN Sportsnation poll is "If you were Cavs GM, would you trade Wiggins for Love?"
 
US Voters: 54% yes
International Voters: 54% yes
Minnesota Voters: 79% yes
Ohio Voters: 41% yes
Kansas Voters: 39% yes
 
It will take more than the number one pick in the draft to "pry loose" one season of Love from a team that has no chance of winning a playoff series this season?
Ridiculous.

 

[Auger34]

https://twitter.com/ChrisMannixSI/status/489948800438394880

It makes much more sense for the Cavs to trade Waiters than Bennett. Cleveland right now has a glut of primary ball handlers and wings. If Bennett develops he is a stretch 4 type who can rebound. That's something that Cleveland presently does not have. Their big men are Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao. Waiters may be a better player than Bennett presently but Bennett is  much better fit with this Cavs roster and its needs.

 

[MakMan44]

Come on, unless something goes horribly, horribly wrong the Cavs are not getting just one season of Love.
EDITmanny

 

[snowmanny]

Right.  But the T-Wolves have him for one season, that's what I meant. I guess it's all in perspective.  It may be worth it for the Cavs to acquire Love now, but that's a ridiculous get for Minnesota for a player they are going to lose after this season anyway.

 

[MakMan44]

Right.  But the T-Wolves have him for one season, that's what I meant. I guess it's all in perspective.  It may be worth it for the Cavs to acquire Love now, but that's a ridiculous get for Minnesota for a player they are going to lose after this season anyway.

I agree, I think if the Wolves can get Wiggins, they should pull the trigger and run. 

 

[The Social Chair]

Cleveland being Cleveland I think we all can see what's coming: the trade happens but Love gets hurt, Wiggins becomes a superstar and the Cavs don't have enough to beat Chicago.

 
Don't forget Irving who has only played more than 59 games in a season once in his first 3 years.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I have rethought this from Golden State's perspective and I don't think they screwed up that badly here.  First, we don't know if they absolutely could have had Love by now if they had put Klay Thompson in the deal originally.  I suspect Saunders would have waited until the FA period began and then waited for LeBron's decision before pulling the trigger on anything just to see what would shake out.  In other words, there may not have really been a window for the Warriors to actually get a deal done.
 
Furthermore - and perhaps this is just rationalization - I am not sure a Love to GS for Thompson/Lee makes GS a contender.  On the other hand, I think Cleveland needs to make this move to get to the next level.  Without getting into it too deeply, I am ambivalent on Klay Thompson but I recognize that he improved quite a bit this season, is a very good defender and I can live with the fact that the Warriors want to build around him and Curry.  He has the skills to improve further too so I recognize that as well.    This piece by Zach Lowe gets into why Golden State has been, ostensibly, reluctant to trade Thompson for Love.  In short, his ability as a two way player covers up for the defensive liability of not only Curry (covering the players that Curry might otherwise have to) but also Lee.  
 
If the Warriors made this trade, its not clear if the offensive upgrade they made from Lee to Love (Lee's oRtg is 111 vs Love's 120) would be enough to eclipse the defensive fall-off from Thompson's absence.  Again, perhaps I am rationalizing this but I don't think so.  As much as it would have been fun to see Love in Golden State, it isn't the layup that some folks would have you believe, even if Thompson gets a max deal next year. 
 
That said, its hard to see Love to Cleveland not getting done.  And I think Saunders risks overplaying his hand here.  If Wiggins and Bennett is on the table, he should take it.  Golden State cannot top it, even if they announced that Thompson is available - and they aren't going to do that now because it won't make a difference and it will only engender ill will between him and the Warriors.  In other words, I think Cleveland can do this and keep Waiters too.

 

[swingin val]

If Bennett develops he is a stretch 4 type who can rebound. That's something that Cleveland presently does not have.

You are forgetting that the proposed trade would net them the best stretch 4 in the game who rebounds at a historic rate.

 

[ElUno20]

Random q, how are these rookies able to play in summer league unsigned? Im guessing theyre insured but dont you get paid in summer league?

I ask because stein brought up a point about the cavs having to wait 30 days to trade wiggins if they sign him

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Is it tampering for LeBron to have that conversation?
 
If not, tampering is getting border line meaningless and they should just allow it.

No tampering. There are no rules prohibiting a player from having conversations with players from other teams since the players are not executives involved in decision making. Although we know in fact that the superstars DO have a direct influence......there is nothing preventing this from occurring.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Random q, how are these rookies able to play in summer league unsigned? Im guessing theyre insured but dont you get paid in summer league?

I ask because stein brought up a point about the cavs having to wait 30 days to trade wiggins if they sign him

The 1st round rookies are locked into their slot by the CBA. Should a player be injured the team "could" elect to not sign the player but that would either violate an unwritten rule between GM/agents to where it would be a major detriment to the team if they took his route or proper insurance is in place.

In leagues without these CBA designated slots you see holdouts (NFL)......I like this way better as the agents aren't really involved in the rookie contract negotiations at all once the player is selected.

 

[bowiac]

Why are some of the rookies not signed then? If they're slotted anyway?