Jayson Tatum Needs His Own Thread

NomarsFool

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That was an old quote from a different game, but it fits.
Funny thing is that in the early part of the game last night, I felt like the team hadn't paid any attention to the discussion after the LAC game. Morris was his usual black hole on offense, and Tatum seemed to be taking poor shot decisions. They were winning in spit of all that, and Tatum ended up playing better. But, I was a little concerned after 1 (despite leading) that the same bad habits hadn't been fixed.

BTW, has anyone seen splits for Morris by quarter? I feel like he scores a bunch of buckets in the first quarter and then disappears. But, that could be entirely my imagination.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Tatum is a super skilled player for sure and of course young enough to continue to grow.
But........

Does anyone else see a little too much Jeff Green/Harrison Barnes with some Rudy Gay blended in that could cap his growth without him ever taking a major leap?

I’ll be more concerned if he doesn’t increase his strength next year but watching him get manhandled by grown men in certain spots without putting up much of a fight is concerning to me. The play where Draymond ripped the ball from him gave me chills of embarrassment for him.
 

DrewDawg

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I’ll be more concerned if he doesn’t increase his strength next year but watching him get manhandled by grown men in certain spots without putting up much of a fight is concerning to me. The play where Draymond ripped the ball from him gave me chills of embarrassment for him.
What about when he went up and did it to Durant?
 

Eddie Jurak

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Does anyone else see a little too much Jeff Green/Harrison Barnes with some Rudy Gay blended in that could cap his growth without him ever taking a major leap?

I’ll be more concerned if he doesn’t increase his strength next year but watching him get manhandled by grown men in certain spots without putting up much of a fight is concerning to me. The play where Draymond ripped the ball from him gave me chills of embarrassment for him.
Chills of embarrassment? Really?
 

Big John

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Is there another 21 year-old player in the league without these kinds of flaws? Or a 22 year-old player for that matter?
 

Big John

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Size isn't a flaw for Tatum either. As for getting the ball ripped out, I saw that happen to both Kyrie and Hayward in the Houston game (on sucessive possessions if memory serves).

My biggest problem with Tatum this year is that he appears to have less confidence in his shot. Shoot the damn thing , Jason. Pierce didn't worry if he missed 10 in a row. Scorers need short memories..
 

DrewDawg

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Size isn't a flaw for Tatum either. As for getting the ball ripped out, I saw that happen to both Kyrie and Hayward in the Houston game (on sucessive possessions if memory serves).

My biggest problem with Tatum this year is that he appears to have less confidence in his shot. Shoot the damn thing , Jason. Pierce didn't worry if he missed 10 in a row. Scorers need short memories..
He's second on the team in shots though. I don't really recall many times with him where I'm hollering "shoot it!" at the TV.
 

Big John

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He should be first in shots, so long as he keeps his head up and looks for the open man when his shot isn't there. He doesn't always get that right. He's 21. Brown also takes it into traffic and forces shots. He's 22.

Tatum's two handed stuff (and steal) of Durant last night may be the Celtics play of the year.
 

Big John

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Kyrie should absolutely be first in shots.
No, Tatum should be first in shots. Kyrie should be primarily a facilitator until he's needed at the end of a close game. Look at the team's record when they have 6-7 guys in double figures. Kyrie, as the established star, needs to suppress his ego for the good of the team.
 

JCizzle

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No, Tatum should be first in shots. Kyrie should be primarily a facilitator until he's needed at the end of a close game. Look at the team's record when they have 6-7 guys in double figures. Kyrie, as the established star, needs to suppress his ego for the good of the team.
Turning Kyrie into Rondo-lite doesn't strike me as the best use of a top 10 offensive talent.....
 

azsoxpatsfan

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No, Tatum should be first in shots. Kyrie should be primarily a facilitator until he's needed at the end of a close game. Look at the team's record when they have 6-7 guys in double figures. Kyrie, as the established star, needs to suppress his ego for the good of the team.
The established star shooting the most shots isn't him not "suppressing his ego." It's the best scorer shooting the most which obviously makes way more sense than someone else shooting more. He's shooting a higher volume than Tatum and is shooting 4% higher than Tatum from the floor and from 3. He's the established star because of his scoring ability.
 

bowiac

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Does anyone else see a little too much Jeff Green/Harrison Barnes with some Rudy Gay blended in that could cap his growth without him ever taking a major leap?.
I don't really follow what these players have in common to be honest apart from being disappointments.

Tatum has already had two seasons better than anything Green, Barnes, or Gay ever did in their combined 30 or so seasons in the league. While I worry about Tatum's lack of development as a passer holding him back from taking leap into a top 10 guy, I have no worries of him being a complete flameout, no.
 

the moops

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No, Tatum should be first in shots. Kyrie should be primarily a facilitator until he's needed at the end of a close game. Look at the team's record when they have 6-7 guys in double figures. Kyrie, as the established star, needs to suppress his ego for the good of the team.
Yes, the team has a very good record when 6 or more players are in double digit scoring. By my quick reading, they are 14-6. However, in games where Kyrie has 8 or more assists, the team is only 11-8. So, maybe it is more about everyone spreading the ball around and not just Kyrie not shooting
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This latest set of posts is a perfect microcosm of MBPC.

Jayson Tatum is a mash-up of Jeff Green/Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay AND he should lead the Celtics in FGA.

The scary thing is that neither of these takes is completely silly nor are they mutually exclusive.
 

chilidawg

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No, Tatum should be first in shots. Kyrie should be primarily a facilitator until he's needed at the end of a close game. Look at the team's record when they have 6-7 guys in double figures. Kyrie, as the established star, needs to suppress his ego for the good of the team.
Tatum is 11th on the team in eFG%. Why should he be first in shots?
 

Big John

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Tatum is 11th on the team in eFG%. Why should he be first in shots?
Because he's 21 years old and and second-most talented player on the team. Of course, if you view him as trade fodder for AD, that's a different story, but that means you have given up on the 2018-19 season.

For this team to be successful in the present, Tatum and Brown need to be the centerpieces, so long as they are busting ass on defense--which they both are. Hayward could be a centerpiece too, if he could string together half a dozen games like the one he played last night. We'll see if that transpires.

Tonight's game against the Kings may be more important than the beatdown of the Warriors.
 
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HowBoutDemSox

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Because he's 21 years old and and second-most talented player on the team. Of course, if you view him as trade fodder for AD, that's a different story, but that means you have given up on the 2018-19 season.
Telling Tatum to take more shots than Kyrie because Tatum is 21 and the second most talented player on the team is the definition of giving up on this season. If you want them to do as well as possible this season, let the most talented player take the most shots.
 

Big John

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Telling Tatum to take more shots than Kyrie because Tatum is 21 and the second most talented player on the team is the definition of giving up on this season. If you want them to do as well as possible this season, let the most talented player take the most shots.
What's their W-L record when Kyrie takes the most shots? Don't forget to ad in the games when Kyrie had zero shots because he didn't play, as will be the case this evening.
And what's their record when Tatum took the most shots?
 
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nighthob

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This latest set of posts is a perfect microcosm of MBPC.

Jayson Tatum is a mash-up of Jeff Green/Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay AND he should lead the Celtics in FGA.

The scary thing is that neither of these takes is completely silly nor are they mutually exclusive.
Oh they’re completely silly all right. I got “chills of embarrassment” just reading them.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Tatum has averaged 13.1 FGA in wins and 13.5 FGA in losses this year, Kyrie 17 FGA in wins and 19 FGA in losses. So there is some very limited evidence that when the team spreads the ball around more, they do better (hardly a shocking conclusion), but there's really no evidence to suggest that "Tatum taking more shots" = "more wins"
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Tatum has averaged 13.1 FGA in wins and 13.5 FGA in losses this year, Kyrie 17 FGA in wins and 19 FGA in losses. So there is some very limited evidence that when the team spreads the ball around more, they do better (hardly a shocking conclusion), but there's really no evidence to suggest that "Tatum taking more shots" = "more wins"
Are they losing because Kyrie is taking more shots, or is he taking more shots because they're losing?
 

OurF'ingCity

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Are they losing because Kyrie is taking more shots, or is he taking more shots because they're losing?
In wins, Kyrie averages 8.8 FGA attempts during the first half and 7.7 in the second. In losses, it's 8.7 in the first half and 10.9 in the second. Not sure which way to read that data - unfortunately NBA.com doesn't let you filter by "winning at the half" or "losing at the half" which would be more helpful here.
 

NomarsFool

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One confounding factor is that whenever the team is winning big, players like Kyrie are going to play less in the second half.
 

the moops

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I don't really follow what these players have in common to be honest apart from being disappointments.

Tatum has already had two seasons better than anything Green, Barnes, or Gay ever did in their combined 30 or so seasons in the league. While I worry about Tatum's lack of development as a passer holding him back from taking leap into a top 10 guy, I have no worries of him being a complete flameout, no.
Your point stands, but Rudy Gay has in fact had multiple seasons better than either of Tatum's first two
 

bowiac

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Not based on my set of RAPM or on the best public metrics (e.g., PIPM), but I suspect this is just a differing evaluation of Gay, so it's not really super germane to the topic of Tatum.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Oh they’re completely silly all right. I got “chills of embarrassment” just reading them.
I will grant you that its probably unwise for Tatum to be taking the most shots on a team that has Kyrie Irving. That said, as much as many of us love Tatum, we don't yet know what he will become if/when he fully realizes his talent. As you well know, NBA history is chock full of insanely gifted players who plateaued or simply wasted their talent.
 

DrewDawg

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Your point stands, but Rudy Gay has in fact had multiple seasons better than either of Tatum's first two
How old was he at the time?

I would assume Tatum has multiple seasons better than his first two as well by the time he's 32.
 

bosox79

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How old was he at the time?

I would assume Tatum has multiple seasons better than his first two as well by the time he's 32.
Rudy Gay was much better than I remembered him being early on. If we had 21 year old Rudy Gay, we'd probably be pretty excited about his long term prognosis. He's not nearly the shooter Tatum is and was just as bad a play maker. He did improve as a passer after 4 years in the league though. I can see some similarities between the 2 if you are just looking at the boxscore. I also think Rudy Gay is quite a better basketball player than Jeff Green and Harrison Barnes.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gayru01.html
 

Rustjive

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Telling Tatum to take more shots than Kyrie because Tatum is 21 and the second most talented player on the team is the definition of giving up on this season. If you want them to do as well as possible this season, let the most talented player take the most shots.
Interesting coincidence that this other conversation blew up on NBA/Celtics Twitter and Reddit today ties into this so nicely - here are two tweets:


Mike Zavagno @MZavagno11 3h
The highest points per possession in ISO (min 100)
Middleton: 1.15
Harden: 1.1
Kawhi: 1.1
Durant: 1.09
DeRozan: 1.07
The lowest points per possession in ISO:
Tatum: 0.62
Sexton: 0.74
Reggie Jackson: 0.79
Embiid: 0.8
Jamal Murray: 0.8


Mike Zavagno @MZavagno11 3h
Kyrie is just an efficiency machine
1.11 ppp in PnR
1.02 ppp in ISO
1.15 ppp on Spot Ups
1.2 ppp on Catch and Shoot
0.98 ppp on Dribble Jumpers
Shooting 62% at the rim and 48% on floaters.
There are quite literally 0 holes in his bucket getting ability
 

chilidawg

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We're probably better when neither of them is playing ISO ball, but I guess if we're desperate KI is a much better choice.
 

bowiac

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Here is Rudy Gay's career PIPM progression (similar to RAPM/RPM, but easier to calculate, and performs almost as well):



Rudy's only season at +2 or better was in 2017, when he played only a half season. Tatum by contrast was at +2.17 last year, and is at +2.78 this year.

Rudy is miles better than Green or Barnes, but give me Tatum's first two season over anything Gay did.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Here is Rudy Gay's career PIPM progression (similar to RAPM/RPM, but easier to calculate, and performs almost as well):



Rudy's only season at +2 or better was in 2017, when he played only a half season. Tatum by contrast was at +2.17 last year, and is at +2.78 this year.

Rudy is miles better than Green or Barnes, but give me Tatum's first two season over anything Gay did.
Pfft. You stat nerds and your fancy spreadsheets and "advanced analytics".

I only know what my eyes tell me and its that Tatum is like if Jeff Green, Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay had a baby ("Three Men And A Tatum?"). In order to grow up, he requires every single one of his teams FGA.

So get out of here with your fancy book learning and coastal math elites ways.

In my next post, I will tell you that the Cs best lineup is actually TimeLord, Yabusele, Wananaker, Dozier and Hunter. They just look hungrier than the pampered, entitled starters! Especially Guerschon.
 

bosox79

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Tatum has a higher floor than all those guys and is already better. It's just all those guys stalled. The knock on Tatum pre draft was his ceiling and that he was close to fully developed. That and he loved the mid range shot, and needed to really improve in including teammates.

There were some knocks on his range too, which is easy to dismiss now.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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What's their W-L record when Kyrie takes the most shots? Don't forget to ad in the games when Kyrie had zero shots because he didn't play, as will be the case this evening.
And what's their record when Tatum took the most shots?
I'm sorry, but this shit drives me crazy.

Stop asking the board to do your work for you. If you want to know the answers to it, look it up. Everyone else below you that is trying to prove their points has done research. Stop posing the question and just get the damn answers and form your own response.
 

DrewDawg

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What's their W-L record when Kyrie takes the most shots? Don't forget to ad in the games when Kyrie had zero shots because he didn't play, as will be the case this evening.
And what's their record when Tatum took the most shots?
KFP is right, you should do this stuff, don't ask others to do it. Now, I may do it if bored, but it's not good message boarding to ask others to prove your argument.

If I do it, I'm not counting games unless both played.

FAKE EDIT: I started to look and stopped when I realized it's meaningless. It was driven home by a game where Irving took more shots than Tatum and the Celtics lost. That means by the way we're counting that's a negative for Kyrie and a positive for Tatum. But Kyrie was like 13 of 17 from the floor and Tatum was 5 of 14.

So....WTF is this showing us again? That had Tatum shot more when he was having a bad night it would have helped the team?
 

BaseballJones

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No, Tatum should be first in shots. Kyrie should be primarily a facilitator until he's needed at the end of a close game. Look at the team's record when they have 6-7 guys in double figures. Kyrie, as the established star, needs to suppress his ego for the good of the team.
Among the regular players, Horford is the most efficient. Here are their effective FG%:

Horford: .583
Irving: .566
Morris: .554
Smart (!): .526
Tatum: .510
Hayward: .509
Brown: .508
Rozier: .466 (ouch)

Here are the percentage of the team's field goals each of these guys has taken (not counting free throw attempts):

Horford: .583 - 9.8%
Irving: .566 - 16.3%
Morris: .554 - 11.4%
Smart (!): .526 - 7.5%
Tatum: .510 - 14.7%
Hayward: .509 - 8.9%
Brown: .508 - 11.1%
Rozier: .466 - 9.1%

Horford should have a higher percentage. Tatum, at his effective field goal percentage, should be taking fewer shots. Brown should be taking fewer shots. Rozier should be shooting WAY fewer shots. And lately, of course, Morris should be taking fewer shots. Kyrie and Horford are the two guys who should shoot more actually, based on their eFG% and current rates. Though I wonder if Horford's eFG% would go down if he shot more. That often happens to guys...the more they shoot, the worse their FG% actually ends up being.
 

DrewDawg

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Horford should have a higher percentage. Tatum, at his effective field goal percentage, should be taking fewer shots. Brown should be taking fewer shots. Rozier should be shooting WAY fewer shots. And lately, of course, Morris should be taking fewer shots. Kyrie and Horford are the two guys who should shoot more actually, based on their eFG% and current rates. Though I wonder if Horford's eFG% would go down if he shot more. That often happens to guys...the more they shoot, the worse their FG% actually ends up being.
Increasing shooting volume does not guarantee their percentages stay the same.
 

BaseballJones

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Increasing shooting volume does not guarantee their percentages stay the same.
I get that. Hence my comment about Horford where I said, "Though I wonder if Horford's eFG% would go down if he shot more. That often happens to guys...the more they shoot, the worse their FG% actually ends up being."
 

DrewDawg

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I get that. Hence my comment about Horford where I said, "Though I wonder if Horford's eFG% would go down if he shot more. That often happens to guys...the more they shoot, the worse their FG% actually ends up being."
Well, you only mentioned Horford's possibly going down :)

But I do agree that Morris and Rozier need to throttle back.
 

chilidawg

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Among the regular players, Horford is the most efficient. Here are their effective FG%:

Horford: .583
Irving: .566
Morris: .554
Smart (!): .526
Tatum: .510
Hayward: .509
Brown: .508
Rozier: .466 (ouch)

Here are the percentage of the team's field goals each of these guys has taken (not counting free throw attempts):

Horford: .583 - 9.8%
Irving: .566 - 16.3%
Morris: .554 - 11.4%
Smart (!): .526 - 7.5%
Tatum: .510 - 14.7%
Hayward: .509 - 8.9%
Brown: .508 - 11.1%
Rozier: .466 - 9.1%

Horford should have a higher percentage. Tatum, at his effective field goal percentage, should be taking fewer shots. Brown should be taking fewer shots. Rozier should be shooting WAY fewer shots. And lately, of course, Morris should be taking fewer shots. Kyrie and Horford are the two guys who should shoot more actually, based on their eFG% and current rates. Though I wonder if Horford's eFG% would go down if he shot more. That often happens to guys...the more they shoot, the worse their FG% actually ends up being.
I bet Brown's % is much better the last couple months, so I don't have a problem with the shots he's taking, but everything else here is spot on. I especially think the offense going through Horford is really efficient.
 

TripleOT

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Interesting coincidence that this other conversation blew up on NBA/Celtics Twitter and Reddit today ties into this so nicely - here are two tweets:


Mike Zavagno @MZavagno11 3h
The highest points per possession in ISO (min 100)
Middleton: 1.15
Harden: 1.1
Kawhi: 1.1
Durant: 1.09
DeRozan: 1.07
The lowest points per possession in ISO:
Tatum: 0.62
Sexton: 0.74
Reggie Jackson: 0.79
Embiid: 0.8
Jamal Murray: 0.8


Mike Zavagno @MZavagno11 3h
Kyrie is just an efficiency machine
1.11 ppp in PnR
1.02 ppp in ISO
1.15 ppp on Spot Ups
1.2 ppp on Catch and Shoot
0.98 ppp on Dribble Jumpers
Shooting 62% at the rim and 48% on floaters.
There are quite literally 0 holes in his bucket getting ability
That Tatum iso number is gristly, on 2.1 isos a game, 13.1% frequency. Many of his teammates this season are actually worse in points per possession in iso, but do not have enough iso attempts to make the above list

Hayward 0.50 PPP on 0.4 isos per game, 3.1% frequency
Brown, 0.60 PPP on .4 isos pg, 3.1% freq
Morris, 0.64 PPP on 1.3 isos pg, 10.1% freq (WTF??)
Rozier, 0.67 PPP on 0.7 isos pg, 7.1% freq
Smart, 0.78 PPP on 0.4 isos pg, 3.9% freq
Kyrie, 0.97 PPP on 2.8 isos pg, 12.7% freq
AL, 1.25 PPP on 0.3 isos pg, 2.3% freq
 

BaseballJones

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I bet Brown's % is much better the last couple months, so I don't have a problem with the shots he's taking, but everything else here is spot on. I especially think the offense going through Horford is really efficient.
The goal is to get your most effective scorers to take more shots than the guys who are less effective scorers. Offenses and offensive philosophy should be designed that way. Ultimately everyone needs to contribute in some way but in no world is it good for Marcus Morris to take a greater percentage of Boston's shots, given his eFG%, then Horford.

Some of Boston's problems can be "fixed" by a better distribution of shots. And that's, frankly, on Stevens.
 

TripleOT

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When the ball touches the paint, the Celtics are a good offensive team. When they pick/roll with Kyrie and AL, they're good. They have three wings that can get to the rack easily off a pass. Only Kyrie, and AL in the post, need to iso on this team.

Tatum obviously will have a lot of iso in his future, and showed at the end of the game in Sacto that he can be up to the task in crunch time. If this team plays together, they're not going to be a need for late game isos most of the time, because they will be ahead of most teams by the last half of the fourth quarter.

Stevens has been reluctant to fix any of the behavior of some of the more off the reservation members of the rotation, like Rozier. Now that the games start to matter more, hopefully he will start coaching more, valuing each possession more.

This extended West Coast vaca is the perfect time to tighten things up, with two days to tune things up before they crush the Lakers, and then (unfortunately) beat the high energy Clippers.
 

Jimbodandy

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The goal is to get your most effective scorers to take more shots than the guys who are less effective scorers. Offenses and offensive philosophy should be designed that way. Ultimately everyone needs to contribute in some way but in no world is it good for Marcus Morris to take a greater percentage of Boston's shots, given his eFG%, then Horford.

Some of Boston's problems can be "fixed" by a better distribution of shots. And that's, frankly, on Stevens.
While I agree with this, I think that it's important to remember that basketball is different from baseball and football in a lot of ways. You can't force rhythm and chemistry. Guys don't always execute what the coach wants.

Tatum's iso opportunities are sometimes because nobody else feels like shooting on the possession. Rozier or Kyrie pounds the ball for a few seconds, defenders are denying Al the post pass or aggressively jumping passing lanes, and Tatum or Morris is a security blanket. It's comforting to the team to have a guy who will surely get a half-decent look on his own, even if the percentage isn't great. I expect that problem to be mitigated substantially in the playoffs, assuming everyone is healthy, as it's far more clear to every man that every possession is really important.
 

Big John

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The problem is that when the "super-efficient" shooter begins to take all of the shots, he stops being as efficient because defenses focus on that player. Everyone gets easier shots when all five guys on the floor are a threat to score.

As for Tatum, it's obvious that he should be playing catch-and-shoot more and dribble-driving less. But the former requires a teammate to find him with a pass.
 

BaseballJones

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The problem is that when the "super-efficient" shooter begins to take all of the shots, he stops being as efficient because defenses focus on that player. Everyone gets easier shots when all five guys on the floor are a threat to score.

As for Tatum, it's obvious that he should be playing catch-and-shoot more and dribble-driving less. But the former requires a teammate to find him with a pass.
Nobody (well not me anyway) is remotely suggesting that the super efficient shooter "takes all the shots". You just want you're most efficient players taking more shots than the least efficient players. I mean, Terry Rozier (.466 eFG%) is taking almost the same percentage of Boston's shots as Horford (.583 eFG%). That's borderline malpractice.