Jayson Tatum Needs His Own Thread

Cesar Crespo

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It'll be interesting what a lot of these young super talented players do with 2 "off seasons" in such a short period of time. That's where most do their growing.
 

chilidawg

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Pierce said it best on Countdown tonight. Guys like Butler ( very, very good but not a superstar) can afford to be the fourth best option on the Heat at times and they'll still win playoff games (deep roster with lots of shooters). Tatum, as the Celtics are currently constructed, cannot enjoy this same privilege. Tatum took over in the third tonight.
I'll disagree. Tatum had a great half, without forcing things outside the flow of the offense. Still had 6 assists. Efficient scorers like JB still got plenty of looks. Everybody got out in transition. Theis was beasting inside and getting put backs. This just didn't seem to me like Tatum taking over, and I think that's a good thing.

Edit: just looked at the box score for the 3rd, and he had 17 points, so maybe he was beasting. Just didn't seem at all like 4th Q game 1 where he's doing the perimeter iso superstar thing and bricking contested 3's.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'll disagree. Tatum had a great half, without forcing things outside the flow of the offense. Still had 6 assists. Efficient scorers like JB still got plenty of looks. Everybody got out in transition. Theis was beasting inside and getting put backs. This just didn't seem to me like Tatum taking over, and I think that's a good thing.

Edit: just looked at the box score for the 3rd, and he had 17 points, so maybe he was beasting. Just didn't seem at all like 4th Q game 1 where he's doing the perimeter iso superstar thing and bricking contested 3's.
He didn't shoot that well and did a lot of damage from the line (12-14 for the whole game). Also had 6 assists. That is probably part of why the numbers and your rec ollections don;t line up.
 

Euclis20

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Yup. We find out this series whether Tatum is one of the top 2 or 3 most precocious 22 year-olds in history, or whether he needs a year or two to become that guy.

Sometimes we need to remember that guys like Kareem, Bird and Duncan were still in college at his age. If he can elevate and somehow get through this series, we’re in scary territory. He showed a lot last night.
Minor nitpick here, but Duncan was in the NBA during his age 21 season. As a rookie he averaged 21 and 12 with 2.5 blocks, won ROY and was 1st team all NBA and 2nd team all Defense. He was just 17 when he was a freshman in college.
 

lovegtm

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Minor nitpick here, but Duncan was in the NBA during his age 21 season. As a rookie he averaged 21 and 12 with 2.5 blocks, won ROY and was 1st team all NBA and 2nd team all Defense. He was just 17 when he was a freshman in college.
My bad, didn’t realize he graduated so young. Yeah, he was a freak early.
 

DJnVa

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Anyone have access to Basketball Reference and can tell us how many 22 year old guys averaged:

25.5 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists in a postseason at Tatum's age?
 

OurF'ingCity

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Anyone have access to Basketball Reference and can tell us how many 22 year old guys averaged:

25.5 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists in a postseason at Tatum's age?
Don't have access to paid Basketball Reference but doing some sleuthing on NBA.com I don't think there are any other than Tatum. Full list from what I can tell (other than Tatum):

LeBron x2 (ages 30 & 35) - obviously his rate stats for this year may change after the Finals
Giannis (age 25)
Westbrook (age 28)
Blake Griffin (age 25)
Garnett (age 26)
Tim Duncan (age 25)
Charles Barkley (age 25)
Larry Bird x2 (ages 27 & 30)
Kareem (age 24)
Billy Cunningham (age 27)
Oscar Robertson x2 (ages 23 & 24)

If you drop the criteria to 25.0 PPG or higher, Barkley joins Tatum as he averaged 25.0/15.8/5.6 in his age 22 playoffs, but he's the only one.
 

reggiecleveland

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Anyone have access to Basketball Reference and can tell us how many 22 year old guys averaged:

25.5 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists in a postseason at Tatum's age?
This type of arbitrary stat line can mislead us into thinking we have the next GOAT, when it is more the way the game changed. Each stat favors him and his era a bit, eliminating many great players. Until 1971 a 22 year guy never played. And until recently the rookies were older, and it was hard for a 22 year old guy to even play. So right off the bat we eliminate most of NBA history.

Points per game, age, In the one and done era more younger guys have been top scorers, and experienced pros by 23. I assume we drop in down a bit we begin adding a few guys.

This is a pet peeve of mine. Many, many rebounds are cheap today. Westbrook's triple doubles are full of his team allowing him every uncontested board. Tatum is that guy on the Cs. Rebounds are less contested, so a much less meaningful stat.

tatum was 87th in the league in offensive boards. His board stats are mostly from defensive boards which are about 40% easier to get than in the 80s and 90s.

Since 1980 the number of rebounds a game have been pretty consistent at 43-45 rebounds a game. But the offensive rebounds have dropped from 15 to 10. (9.7 last year). So the defense has gone from getting around 67% of rebounds to almost 80%. Analytics has calculated the long rebounds on 3 attempts are very dangerous and best to just get back send maybe one guy, if any to the boards. So Jason Tatum's 9 d rebounds a game would be more along the lines of 6 in the 80s. This fits my eye test. He is pretty good rebounding wing. Would probably be a 6-7 rebound a game guy in the physical eras, which was very good for a 3/4, excellent for a 2.

He is good rebounder, but to compare his ten boards to say Bird, or Barkley, is like Comparing Jackie Bradley's 21 homers in 2019 to Fred Lynn hitting 21 in 1975. But Tatum at least half the time is only competing for defensive boards with his teammates, who seem to get he is the stat hunter that gets the easy ones. I noticed him giving Kanter a stinkeye when they both went for a board, as the other team got back, and Kanter got it. Tatum averaged 1.3 offensive boards a game. Barkley is listed as a comp and averaged 1.3 O rebounds in the playoffs as the broken down Rocket. Even Bird a jumpshooter, never dropped below 2OR a game until he was no longer a double digit rebounder. The reverse is true of O boards being harder to get today, but his 1.3 only trends up to about 1.8, agins great for perimiter guy, but not in the league of any of the great rebounders (Obviously not westbrook) listed as comps.

Similarly. Oscar Robinson's triple doubles are cheaper in a sense since he did it (nearly did it) when there were 20-25 more rebounds a game.

High assist/rebound guys are less rare since wing players get many of the easy long d boards. In the past a 10 rebound a game guy was almost certainly a big, (or Larry Bird, Or Magic) and were expected to shoot, not pass.
 
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slamminsammya

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This type of arbitrary stat line can mislead us into thinking we have the next GOAT, when it is more the way the game changed. Each stat favors him and his era a bit, eliminating many great players. Until 1971 a 22 year guy never played. And until recently the rookies were older, and it was hard for a 22 year old guy to even play. So right off the bat we eliminate most of NBA history.

Points per game, age, In the one and done era more younger guys have been top scorers, and experienced pros by 23. I assume we drop in down a bit we begin adding a few guys.

This is a pet peeve of mine. Many, many rebounds are cheap today. Westbrook's triple doubles are full of his team allowing him every uncontested board. Tatum is that guy on the Cs. Rebounds are less contested, so a much less meaningful stat.

tatum was 87th in the league in offensive boards. His board stats are mostly from defensive boards which are about 40% easier to get than in the 80s and 90s.

Since 1980 the number of rebounds a game have been pretty consistent at 43-45 rebounds a game. But the offensive rebounds have dropped from 15 to 10. (9.7 last year). So the defense has gone from getting around 67% of rebounds to almost 80%. Analytics has calculated the long rebounds on 3 attempts are very dangerous and best to just get back send maybe one guy, if any to the boards. So Jason Tatum's 9 d rebounds a game would be more along the lines of 6 in the 80s. This fits my eye test. He is pretty good rebounding wing. Would probably be a 6-7 rebound a game guy in the physical eras, which was very good for a 3/4, excellent for a 2.

He is good rebounder, but to compare his ten boards to say Bird, or Barkley, is like Comparing Jackie Bradley's 21 homers in 2019 to Fred Lynn hitting 21 in 1975. But Tatum at least half the time is only competing for defensive boards with his teammates, who seem to get he is the stat hunter that gets the easy ones. I noticed him giving Kanter a stinkeye when they both went for a board, as the other team got back, and Kanter got it. Tatum averaged 1.3 offensive boards a game. Barkley is listed as a comp and averaged 1.3 O rebounds in the playoffs as the broken down Rocket. Even Bird a jumpshooter, never dropped below 2OR a game until he was no longer a double digit rebounder. The reverse is true of O boards being harder to get today, but his 1.3 only trends up to about 1.8, agins great for perimiter guy, but not in the league of any of the great rebounders (Obviously not westbrook) listed as comps.

Similarly. Oscar Robinson's triple doubles are cheaper in a sense since he did it (nearly did it) when there were 20-25 more rebounds a game.

High assist/rebound guys are less rare since wing players get many of the easy long d boards. In the past a 10 rebound a game guy was almost certainly a big, (or Larry Bird, Or Magic) and were expected to shoot, not pass.
These are all good points. Nevertheless, I imagine if you adjusted for pace and league factors like rebound rate and efficiency etc he'd still be in some pretty rarified company.
 

Devizier

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Minor quibble is that the 80s and early 90s were a period of insane assist inflation. Point guards would get credit for hockey assists. Getting 10 APG was not abnormal. Of course that likely depressed assist numbers for forwards.
 

reggiecleveland

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These are all good points. Nevertheless, I imagine if you adjusted for pace and league factors like rebound rate and efficiency etc he'd still be in some pretty rarified company.
To me just being leading scorer, an undeniably best player, on a team that goes to game 6 of ECF at his age is abetter measure. I mean Magic was that good that young, Jordan would have been had he left early, Kareem, Walton. But it is HOF guys.

I am not full fledged on the Tatum bandwagon, but his defence excites me more than his rebounding stats. He is great defender, probably more importasnt than Smart, since you can play him more minutes.
 

OurF'ingCity

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This type of arbitrary stat line can mislead us into thinking we have the next GOAT, when it is more the way the game changed. Each stat favors him and his era a bit, eliminating many great players. Until 1971 a 22 year guy never played. And until recently the rookies were older, and it was hard for a 22 year old guy to even play. So right off the bat we eliminate most of NBA history.

Points per game, age, In the one and done era more younger guys have been top scorers, and experienced pros by 23. I assume we drop in down a bit we begin adding a few guys.

This is a pet peeve of mine. Many, many rebounds are cheap today. Westbrook's triple doubles are full of his team allowing him every uncontested board. Tatum is that guy on the Cs. Rebounds are less contested, so a much less meaningful stat.

tatum was 87th in the league in offensive boards. His board stats are mostly from defensive boards which are about 40% easier to get than in the 80s and 90s.

Since 1980 the number of rebounds a game have been pretty consistent at 43-45 rebounds a game. But the offensive rebounds have dropped from 15 to 10. (9.7 last year). So the defense has gone from getting around 67% of rebounds to almost 80%. Analytics has calculated the long rebounds on 3 attempts are very dangerous and best to just get back send maybe one guy, if any to the boards. So Jason Tatum's 9 d rebounds a game would be more along the lines of 6 in the 80s. This fits my eye test. He is pretty good rebounding wing. Would probably be a 6-7 rebound a game guy in the physical eras, which was very good for a 3/4, excellent for a 2.

He is good rebounder, but to compare his ten boards to say Bird, or Barkley, is like Comparing Jackie Bradley's 21 homers in 2019 to Fred Lynn hitting 21 in 1975. But Tatum at least half the time is only competing for defensive boards with his teammates, who seem to get he is the stat hunter that gets the easy ones. I noticed him giving Kanter a stinkeye when they both went for a board, as the other team got back, and Kanter got it. Tatum averaged 1.3 offensive boards a game. Barkley is listed as a comp and averaged 1.3 O rebounds in the playoffs as the broken down Rocket. Even Bird a jumpshooter, never dropped below 2OR a game until he was no longer a double digit rebounder. The reverse is true of O boards being harder to get today, but his 1.3 only trends up to about 1.8, agins great for perimiter guy, but not in the league of any of the great rebounders (Obviously not westbrook) listed as comps.

Similarly. Oscar Robinson's triple doubles are cheaper in a sense since he did it (nearly did it) when there were 20-25 more rebounds a game.

High assist/rebound guys are less rare since wing players get many of the easy long d boards. In the past a 10 rebound a game guy was almost certainly a big, (or Larry Bird, Or Magic) and were expected to shoot, not pass.
This is all undeniably true but it's not like players are now putting up Tatum's stat line in the playoffs regularly despite all the changes in the game you identified. In the "modern game" the list is just Tatum, Giannis, Westbrook, LeBron, and Blake Griffin. That's rarefied company even if you throw out the earlier guys whose stats don't compare as directly.

The larger point being that Tatum is absolutely on pace to be a Hall of Fame shoo-in - the question is starting to become not whether Tatum will be a great player but whether he will be an all-time, top-50-ever type player or "merely" a Hall-of-Famer/top-100-ever type player, which is a pretty good place to be in when you're only 22.
 

JakeRae

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This is all undeniably true but it's not like players are now putting up Tatum's stat line in the playoffs regularly despite all the changes in the game you identified. In the "modern game" the list is just Tatum, Giannis, Westbrook, LeBron, and Blake Griffin. That's rarefied company even if you throw out the earlier guys whose stats don't compare as directly.

The larger point being that Tatum is absolutely on pace to be a Hall of Fame shoo-in - the question is starting to become not whether Tatum will be a great player but whether he will be an all-time, top-50-ever type player or "merely" a Hall-of-Famer/top-100-ever type player, which is a pretty good place to be in when you're only 22.
I think you’re aiming too low. The bubble zone for top 50 (focusing on modern players for ease of comparison) is guys like Paul Pierce, Reggie Miller, and Ray Allen. Tatum is easily going to eclipse that level if he stays healthy. The guy who you might rate around this level that is a better Tatum comp is Trace McGrady. In other words, if Tatum’s career is derailed by injuries, there’s still a decent chance he closes out his career as a borderline top 50 player.

The really question is if he becomes a perennial MVP candidate, top 10 all time level player or an occasional MVP candidate, 30-40 all time player or somewhere in between.
 

reggiecleveland

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This is all undeniably true but it's not like players are now putting up Tatum's stat line in the playoffs regularly despite all the changes in the game you identified. In the "modern game" the list is just Tatum, Giannis, Westbrook, LeBron, and Blake Griffin. That's rarefied company even if you throw out the earlier guys whose stats don't compare as directly.

The larger point being that Tatum is absolutely on pace to be a Hall of Fame shoo-in - the question is starting to become not whether Tatum will be a great player but whether he will be an all-time, top-50-ever type player or "merely" a Hall-of-Famer/top-100-ever type player, which is a pretty good place to be in when you're only 22.
I don't see where I said he wasn't a great player. I in fact said the opposite, but the use of rebounds to attach some of these guys to great forwards of the past is misleading, and also eliminated a lot of similar accomplishmnents. Again I think being an elite defender and top scorer on a top 4 team at his age is most rare. In my time watching ball, I would say guy who could have done that at that age are Lebron, Jordan, Duncan, Sampson, Ewing, David Thompson, Drexler, Maybe Marques Johnson, Sid Moncrief was the best player on a very good team at 23, but not a top scorer. Very few guys.

Basketball does this too much, and it is worse when they throw in steals and blocks, relatively recent stats in. I saw a TV interview where Hassan Whiteside talked at length how he was the only guy to getting triple doubles with blocks, while the talking head noted it was hard to believe WIlt or Russell never did it.
 
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Jimbodandy

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I don't see where I said he wasn't a great player. I in fact said the opposite, but the use of rebounds to attach some of these guys to great forwards of the past is misleading, and also eliminated a lot of similar accomplishmnents. Again I think being an elite defender and top scorer on a top 4 team at his age is most rare. In my time watching ball, I would say guy who could have done that at that age are Lebron, Jordan, Duncan, Sampson, Ewing, David Thompson, Drexler, Maybe Marques Johnson, Sid Moncrief was the best player on a very good team at 23, but not a top scorer. Very few guys.

Basketball does this too much, and it is worse when they throw in steals and blocks, relatively recent stats in. I saw a TV interview where Hassan Whiteside talked at length how he was the only guy to getting triple doubles with blocks, while the talking head noted it was hard to believe WIlt or Russell never did it.
Yeah, this is a good reminder. Blocks and steals weren't a thing for the first 25 years of the NBA or so. 19 year olds being drafted, let along being starters on a good team, wasn't a thing that really happened until the 1990s, limited exceptions of course. This doesn't take away from anything that Tatum has done. It's just a good reminder the whole "only a few guys have done X by age 23" is factoring in a pretty small subset of guys historically.

Bob Cousy led the NBA in assists in 8 straight years of his 13 years played in Boston (disregarding the weird last year at 41yo). He averaged 7.6APG. The numbers change wildly by era, similar to baseball.
 

DJnVa

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Sometimes things are just cool to look at fellas.

No one proclaimed him the GOAT.
 

reggiecleveland

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I would pump the breaks on probably top 50 talk. Off the NBA list of top 50 who do you take off for Griffin, Westbrook, Gianis, .


I don't see where I said he wasn't a great player. I in fact said the opposite, but the use of rebounds to attach some of these guys to great forwards of the past is misleading, and also eliminated a lot of similar accomplishmnents.

Basketball does this too much, and it is worse when they throw in steals and blocks, relatively recent stats in. I saw a TV interview where Hassan Whiteside talked at length how he was the only guy to getting triple doubles with blocks, while the talking head noted it was hard to believe WIlt or Russell never did it.
Sometimes things are just cool to look at fellas.

No one proclaimed him the GOAT.
No just a floor of 30 best player ever.