Jaylen Brown - underrated?

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
37,510
I believe my gamethread comment was that it was Jaylen’s worst game of the year. He was bad. Tatum might have been worse, though.

Both appeared to get rattled. Jaylen had a bad call on a should-have-been steal and never recovered. Tatum missed a couple wide open threes and then was hesitant the rest of the way.

That’ll happen to young players.
But it shouldn't happen if those same young players want to respond to less playing time by saying "HEY, WE MADE THE EFC LAST SEASON!!" You can't have both. They can't say "We can handle this shit!" and then get rattled.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
3,157
around the way
But it shouldn't happen if those same young players want to respond to less playing time by saying "HEY, WE MADE THE EFC LAST SEASON!!" You can't have both. They can't say "We can handle this shit!" and then get rattled.
Agreed. But putting the last play behind you, good or bad, and focusing on the next play only is an acquired skill. If it were easy, Stevens, Belichick, and everyone else wouldn't have to repeat the mantra constantly.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
3,157
around the way
Agreed. But putting the last play behind you, good or bad, and focusing on the next play only is an acquired skill. If it were easy, Stevens, Belichick, and everyone else wouldn't have to repeat the mantra constantly.
Edit: you only need to look at last year's Saints loss to see how even experienced coaches and players can fall apart after one bad result. Yes, it was terrible, but still.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
2,039
Brown got only 18 minutes in Cleveland (9 points on 7 shots, 2-3 from three, 6 rebounds.

In the 14 games he played 30+ mpg, he shoots 53% overall and 45% from three.
 

bosox79

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,441
Since returning from injury
53 games, 25.2 minutes, .487/.376/.675, 13.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steal.

Dude can definitely score. He's up to .342 from 3 this year too, following years of .341 and .395. Career .365 on 710 attempts so it's probably safe to assume he's not going to kill you taking 3 pointers. If he developed a passing game, I don't know what would stop him from being a top 15-20 player in the league. Big if though. He'd be a rich mans Kris Middleton, or Jimmy Butler I suppose.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
This game was an example of why I’d rather have Jaylen at 20/year on an AD team than Tatum at the max. Great D, and he’s good at playing in the space that having multiple elite offensive players creates.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,903
Unless JB decides to sign an extension he is going to get maxed. All of the rebuilding teams with cap space are going to throw max deals at the elite 3&D guy with untapped upside.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
Unless JB decides to sign an extension he is going to get maxed. All of the rebuilding teams with cap space are going to throw max deals at the elite 3&D guy with untapped upside.
Yes, I’m talking about this summer. I expect the team to make a more serious push to extend him than they did for Smart and Rozier, and guys around his level often take the guaranteed 80-90M rather than wait a year.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,903
I just don’t think he’s likely to take a 25% pay cut for the halibut. This isn’t Terry Rozier we’re discussing, he’s pretty much guaranteed a max deal barring catastrophic injury.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
37,510
Yahoo just had a story that exactly 5 years ago today, JB tweeted that a HS teacher told him she would look him up in jail in 5 years.

Nope. Although he did murder the Bucks today.
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,597
Berkeley, CA
I just don’t think he’s likely to take a 25% pay cut for the halibut. This isn’t Terry Rozier we’re discussing, he’s pretty much guaranteed a max deal barring catastrophic injury.
I think the catastrophic injury risk is enough for him to take a less than max extension. He saw GH's and IT's injuries firsthand. JB's smart and having that money banked is the smart play. He's young enough - and confident enough - that I think he'd believe the max deal will be waiting. $90 million dollars guaranteed - almost 1/10th of a billion - is too much to pass up. IMO the difference between it and a max payout doesn't offset the potential of getting 0.
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,597
Berkeley, CA
So why do so many guys that are guaranteed max offers actually hit free agency?
Not smart? Didn't witness devastating injuries? On crappy teams? Not trying to be glib and it's all obviously a guess on my part about Brown but he has a few factors in his favor that may make him an exception.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,903
How stupid can they be if they’re getting max deals rather than 80% max deals?
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,266
Saint Paul, MN
There have been a decent amount of guys who signed rookie scale extensions for less than the max. Giannis, Oladipo, Gary Harris, Klay, McCollum, are a few. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jaylen join that crew. I don't think he snifs a max deal in the summer of 2020. Although it does look like a less than inspiring free agent class in 2020 so maybe
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
There have been a decent amount of guys who signed rookie scale extensions for less than the max. Giannis, Oladipo, Gary Harris, Klay, McCollum, are a few. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jaylen join that crew. I don't think he snifs a max deal in the summer of 2020. Although it does look like a less than inspiring free agent class in 2020 so maybe
No. No good player on his rookie contract has ever signed for less than the max. It has never happened, and never will. /s
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,597
Berkeley, CA
Yes, players normally insure themselves against future earnings.
This would certainly ensure a player holds out for a max contract. A player on a rookie contract can afford the insurance to cover a 100+ million loss? I know nothing about these kinds of premiums.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,903
Most players that anticipate being first round picks start carrying injury insurance in college. That's just the way it's done in this day and age. And most young players are willing to run the risk if they think they're going to get max offers come free agency. Because mostly those guys all do get max offers and very few of them suffer career ending injuries.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
Who are these most guys? There are only like 30 max contracts in the league currently. Jaylen very well could get a max offer, but it is far from a certainty
The guys on the list you gave are fairly comparable to Brown. Most of the guys who DO get maxed do it on the extension, not in RFA—Otto Porter was a rare exception.

I’ll go through and make a list of players who have gotten maxed at some point.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,903
There have been a decent amount of guys who signed rookie scale extensions for less than the max. Giannis, Oladipo, Gary Harris, Klay, McCollum, are a few. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jaylen join that crew. I don't think he snifs a max deal in the summer of 2020. Although it does look like a less than inspiring free agent class in 2020 so maybe
Giannis, McCollum, and Thompson are on max deals (you may be confused with Thompson as his extension kicked in prior to the cap spike, and he’s been vastly underpaid for a few years now). There should be no confusion with McCollum or the Greek Freak as their deals started at 25% of the cap for their year.

Harris and Oladipo did take lower priced deals, but both more than people are suggesting that Brown will accept, and I’d argue that Harris is overpaid as his upside was always above average starter. He’s never been great on either side of the ball, although he’s been decent, at least, at the 3 half of 3&D.

So, not really Jaylen, who looks like the elite roleplayer version of Jimmy Butler. But still with upside thanks to the length/athleticism. So, yeah, if he gets to RFA status he’s getting maxed. And whatever team has him under contract next October likely offers it to him just to keep him happy and focused.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
23,724
Yahoo just had a story that exactly 5 years ago today, JB tweeted that a HS teacher told him she would look him up in jail in 5 years.

Nope. Although he did murder the Bucks today.
Did we ever find out the impetus for that crazy teacher's quote?
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,597
Berkeley, CA
Most players that anticipate being first round picks start carrying injury insurance in college. That's just the way it's done in this day and age. And most young players are willing to run the risk if they think they're going to get max offers come free agency. Because mostly those guys all do get max offers and very few of them suffer career ending injuries.
Sure, insurance to cover a player while in college has been a thing for a while now, but that's not the same as insurance against the loss of a $100+ million max contract which would apply to a player like JB. If you can't get that insurance - or at least if you can't afford it - then again you are taking a huge gamble.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,266
Saint Paul, MN
Sure, insurance to cover a player while in college has been a thing for a while now, but that's not the same as insurance against the loss of a $100+ million max contract which would apply to a player like JB. If you can't get that insurance - or at least if you can't afford it - then again you are taking a huge gamble.
Jabari Parker got 20 million a year and he has torn an ACL like very year since puberty. So...while Jaylen would be taking a risk, it is not 100 million dollar risk
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
1,597
Berkeley, CA
Short of losing a leg, you're correct that a skilled but injured player would still get paid and often times paid very, very well. Parker's a good illustration of this. Good young player with a bad knee settles for 2 year/$40 million contract. Without the injury, it seems very likely he'd be a max player for some of the reasons nighthob cites above. Great pay, but far different from a max contract (and it's from the Bulls).
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
Short of losing a leg, you're correct that a skilled but injured player would still get paid and often times paid very, very well. Parker's a good illustration of this. Good young player with a bad knee settles for 2 year/$40 million contract. Without the injury, it seems very likely he'd be a max player for some of the reasons nighthob cites above. Great pay, but far different from a max contract (and it's from the Bulls).
With the 2nd year as a club option--he only got $20M in guaranteed money.
 

bosox79

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,441
Aaron Gordon didn't get the max either. Aaron Gordon is a flawed player but I thought for sure he'd have gotten the max. I think it could go either way with Jaylen but I don't think he's a guarantee to get the max.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
2,039
Considering how young he is, hedging his bet and taking 80% of what he could get as a RFA with the piece of mind that he's all set for life if he suffers a catastrophic injury next season isn't outrageous. Brown will have at least one more chance to get full value as a UFA down the road.
 

Dick Pole Upside

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2003
4,294
39.932N, -85.848W
Yahoo just had a story that exactly 5 years ago today, JB tweeted that a HS teacher told him she would look him up in jail in 5 years.
There was an interesting article in the Globe yesterday about this.

JB is a terrific basketball talent, but I think he's also a pretty exceptional young man. Still only 22YO. Remarkable. I find him easy to root for, and hope he has a long career with the Celtics.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
17,278
Most players that anticipate being first round picks start carrying injury insurance in college. That's just the way it's done in this day and age. And most young players are willing to run the risk if they think they're going to get max offers come free agency. Because mostly those guys all do get max offers and very few of them suffer career ending injuries.
Insurance seems to come up a lot here on SOSH and very people understand it. For example, most insurer offer policies that max out at $10MM. That's fine for college kids who go on a rookie NBA contract but wouldn't do it for someone like JB. There are also standard exclusions that make the insurance a less desirable deal.

Note that Ennis Kanter took out insurance when he turned down his extension but that was (from what I understand) a $20MM policy that would only pay out if he was injured so he couldn't play basketball again. T

Here's a recent article on the topic: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/guides/what-is-athlete-lossofvalue-insurance-161625.aspx (Note that the article says that Chance Warmack was the first person in NFL history to collect on a loss-of-value insurance policy.)
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
9,919
I am very high on Jaylen going into next year. After his slow start, he could have sulked and packed it in, but he bounced back like a pro. I don't think he'll be properly valued, so he's the one guy that I hope is basically untouchable this offseason.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
1,606
I am very high on Jaylen going into next year. After his slow start, he could have sulked and packed it in, but he bounced back like a pro. I don't think he'll be properly valued, so he's the one guy that I hope is basically untouchable this offseason.
I'm with you on this. His athleticism and aggressiveness seems to really shine in the playoffs when the defensive intensity ratchets up and other guys are struggling to get good looks. I've thought that in each of the last 3 playoff seasons.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
I imagine the Celtics will start at least exploring an extension with Jaylen now. In terms of what they’d pay if he got a max offer sheet next summer, I think it’s 4/125, give or take. So that would be the baseline he’d have in his head when thinking how much to potentially give up for security.

What number would you be fine extending him at? Keep in mind that a) this doesn’t mean you have to keep him long-term and b) he already plays good defense and has a decent shooting track record at the thinnest position in the league.

I’d say any contract less than 22/year or so is a clearly positive asset, and 4/100 is probably neutral given his current production and where the cap is (see Harrison Barnes).
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
7,250
Santa Monica
With so much money being splashed around this offseason who will have cap space next summer? Could it end up like a Marcus Smart situation, where the league is tapped out, is it worth the gamble?

Why is Harrison Barnes a good comp? Feels like he was overpaid by Dallas, then now with Sacramento.

After seeing his buddy Rozier get paid over $19MM/yr (OMG what an awful deal) Jaylen probably has a big # in mind and may want to just play it out
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
With so much money being splashed around this offseason who will have cap space next summer? Could it end up like a Marcus Smart situation, where the league is tapped out, is it worth the gamble?

Why is Harrison Barnes a good comp? Feels like he was overpaid by Dallas, then now with Sacramento.

After seeing his buddy Rozier get paid over $19MM/yr (OMG what an awful deal) Jaylen probably has a big # in mind and may want to just play it out
The flipside is that the FA class is REALLY weak, so he’d be one of the better guys out there.

Barnes is notable not because he’s good, but because the contract was tradeable and he was subsequently re-upped at a similar number, and he’s not as good a player imo.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
17,278
The four comps that the Cs and JB are looking at are: (i) from 2018, Gordan at 4/$80MM and Capela at 5/$90MM, and (ii) from this year, Brogdon, at 4/$85MM and DLo at 4/$117MM.

I think JB is going to put up numbers this year so if BOS could sign him for 4/$100MM - sort of 1/2way between DLo and Brogdan, that would be of value to the Cs. Without knowing how much cap space teams have, I suspect he's only going get more expensive as he becomes a focal point of BOS's season. It only takes one team to fall in love with him and offer him the max.
 

bosox79

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,441
After seeing his buddy Rozier get paid over $19MM/yr (OMG what an awful deal) Jaylen probably has a big # in mind and may want to just play it out
Especially since there should be plenty of playing time for him to put up numbers.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
4,945
Kiev, Ukraine
The four comps that the Cs and JB are looking at are: (i) from 2018, Gordan at 4/$80MM and Capela at 5/$90MM, and (ii) from this year, Brogdon, at 4/$85MM and DLo at 4/$117MM.

I think JB is going to put up numbers this year so if BOS could sign him for 4/$100MM - sort of 1/2way between DLo and Brogdan, that would be of value to the Cs. Without knowing how much cap space teams have, I suspect he's only going get more expensive as he becomes a focal point of BOS's season. It only takes one team to fall in love with him and offer him the max.
Yeah, I agree he's decently likely to get a big contract next summer, although there's definitely value to locking in ~$100M.

I guess my question also: at what number is he an asset for the Celtics, or at least not a negative asset? If the answer is something like 4/100, I'd guess that the two sides are close enough to get a deal done this summer.

Another benefit of getting him signed (if you can avoid overpaying) is that he won't get signed to a 3+1 offer sheet.