Savin Hillbilly said:
Wouldn't be it just as accurate to say he needed a big midsummer slump to bring his numbers down to where they ended at? I mean, yeah, he's streaky, we saw that. But treating only the hot streaks as suspect, in terms of what we can expect going forward, seems gratuitously glass-half-empty.
It would be just as accurate, but that's the point with Napoli. He's a streaky hitter, but a streaky hitter with a range that can land anywhere from a month long OPS of .668 to 1.227. He isn't David Ortiz where the slumps are about league average and the highs are elite, his slumps have the ability to be prolonged sub-replacement level events.
That doesn't mean I wouldn't love to see Napoli back, but only on a reasonable deal. He isn't the kind of guy who is going to reinvent his game in a few years and tack another 3-4 good seasons on a la Papi. When he sees a meaningful drop to any one of his 1. limited contact ability 2. strong plate discipline or 3. power he's not going to be an every day first baseman anymore. The tools he has as a hitter are just too limited to allow him to compensate for decline. At least that's my view of him.
As I've said in other threads, 2 at $32M? Sure, love to have him on-board. 2 at $36M? Why the hell not, isn't my money. But as soon as there is a legitimate guarantee attached to the 3rd year, be that an actual 3 year deal or an easily reached 3rd year vesting option, I'd say it's time to give Corey Hart a call and to make sure that Carp, Hassan, Lavarnway, Castellanos, Nava, and maybe even Middlebrooks have shiny new 1B mitts under the Christmas tree in a touch under a month.
I much prefer the 2014 Sox lineup with Napoli behind Ortiz, but the in-house and FA alternatives are numerous enough for me to be realistic about what a 3+ year deal for Napoli will mean for the 2016 club's chances. Hoping Napoli ages like fine wine is what a team does when there are no other alternatives on the horizon, that is not the Red Sox.
Tyrone Biggums said:
Would you really feel comfortable with putting all of your eggs in the Carp/Nava basket with zero track record other than last year? Not saying Carp can't be the answer at 1st but you always want to bring in competition. If Napoli doesn't come back then the next logical choice is Hart. If Hart goes elsewhere then you have to decide if Nava/Carp is the answer at 1st or maybe a MLFA such as LaPorta or a possible non tender like Garrett Jones or a trade. Lots of options out there, not many of those are real appealing. The only ones who you can look at as appealing are the players that you know can play in Boston.
You mention lightning striking twice. What happens when Nava regresses next year? Do you bring Hassan up to platoon with Carp? Hassan doesn't have the bat at first. So now all of a sudden you improve the WAR for SS with Xander but you destroy it between the downgrade at catcher and 1st due to wanting to save an extra few dollars. I'm not opposed to them giving Lavarnway a shot worst case at catcher because there is a good chance with catcher being one of those positions where there isn't a whole lot of quality out there he would probably pass for league average. Napoli showed a great glove and his numbers overall were pretty good. I'd like them to bring Napoli and Salty back. Even if you give Salty 1/12 and sell him on going back on the market next year (that way you can rectify the horrid decision to not extend the QO) the Sox end up winning because he will be above league average.
1. Carp/Nava aren't the only options at first. Hassan, Castellanos, along with maybe Lavarnway and Middlebrooks are all options as well. It depends on what FA signings are available. Also, the only reason the Sox should lose out on Hart (if they want him) is if some team offers him multiple years. Otherwise they should be splashing the pot on a one year deal. The argument could be made that Hart is the far better option than Napoli in fact, because of the following reasons:
a. positional versatility. While not a good defender at 1B or the corner OF he's tolerable at both. Given the gold glove 2B we'll have next to our 1B (and the gold glove RF we should look to keep behind him) and the tight confines of Fenway's LF the Sox can fit Hart's bat into two different positions without defensive concern. Napoli is a 1B and only a 1B now. That broadens the depth into a four guys for two jobs scenario between Nava, Gomes, Carp, and Hart. Even saying Gomes is just too stiff to play 1B we can easily move the other three about based on who's hitting to find production out of those two positions, using the same number of roster spots we dedicated to them last year.
b. letting Napoli go nets a first round pick, signing Hart to a pillow deal could very possibly result in the same for him. That's +2 sandwich picks over two years out of the 1B position.
c. no multi-year deal risk.
2. Nava might regress, but that is what Carp, Hassan, Castellanos, Brentz, Cecchini if his bat continues to out-pace his glove, Kalish as a dark horse, and Gomes are on the roster for. Not to mention any 5th OF signing they might make if Carp is the full time 1B.
Also, Hassan is an OBP machine who made some swing adjustments last year that improved bat speed and per visual scouting increased his power potential. If he can maintain anything close to his minor league BA/OBP delta he's got real ML value offensively, even without seeing any kind of power maturation from his new swing and 6'4" frame. His mL SLG numbers (and his overall offensive skill set really) aren't very different from Kevin Youkilis who did just fine as a 1B bat if I recall. Is he a lock to be a productive player or make a similar step forward in terms of power? Of course not. But his AAA performance last season coupled with his development history (originally scouted as a pitcher) and his AA numbers make him a legitimate piece to add to the 2014 mix.
3. If the Sox where ok with giving Salty 1/$12M they probably would have extended him the qualifying offer. Why do you assume they made a mistake in not doing so? They clearly think he's worth far less than $14M on a one year deal. They have far more advanced metrics than us to predict that value. Also, now that Salty doesn't have the QO attached why in the world would he take a one year deal with the potential of getting a QO and hurting his market next season if he hits like 2013 again, or seeing his market shrink massively if he hits like 2011 and 2012 instead while being one year older? He'll get 3-5 years from someone this winter, it won't be the Red Sox. The question now is if the Sox replace him by trading for Hanigan, or roll with Lavarnway.
Tyrone Biggums said:
Its funny that people are taking this approach. Usually after winning a World Series people want to see a repeat. On here we're hoping for an 85 win squad that serves as a bridge year to 2015-2016.
And usually teams after winning the World Series do exactly what you suggest, overpay across the board to try a repeat, find out that they paid guys based on career years, and then spend several years waiting for those bad deals to expire before they can be competitive again.
The difference between the 2012 and 2013 Sox (other than superior management, game planning etc.) was pitching and health. The pitching staff isn't changing for next season and we can't guarantee health in any meaningful way. Napoli did well last year but there are ample options to get similar production at 1B with less commitment. Salty had a career year and the club clearly doesn't value what he does behind the dish very highly.
Your argument would have a lot more merit if you were suggesting the Sox say damn it all and give Ellsbury 7/$147M. He's the real irreplaceable difference maker they're losing. Corey Hart, Mike Carp, et al might hit just as well as Napoli at 1B. Lavarnway isn't even a bad bet to out-hit Salty's career norms in 2014. The gaping hole for 2014 will be lead off and plus CF defense. Bradley might fix the later, but no one is fixing the former. That's your offensive regression and it can't be solved without giving out a bad deal of epic proportions.
That $34M they have to spend this year isn't the problem. It's tying up that same $34M for 2014, 2015, etc.. The club can find ways to use short term cash without taking on long term commitments. Overpay for one year of Corey Hart. Splash the pot with a big 2 year offer to Beltran. Those are all better options. Hell, offer Ellsbury 1 year at $30M and see if he bites. All better choices than Salty or Napoli o 3+ year deals.
CaskNFappin said:
Exactly! The same exact folks are also conveniently forgetting or dismissing that ALL of JBJ, WMB, Nava, Carp, Hassan, and the rest of our unproven commodities could wind up being mediocre at best.
2013 doesn't mean we should take our foot off the gas. Lets see how people feel about .500 in July if we decide to give all the kids a try and they collectively fail. I'd say we focus on a present dynasty knowing we have plenty of room to maneuver compared to the pre-Punto trade. Ortiz won't be here forever and is be willing to bet that his replacement in the lineup will not be as fearsome. We don't have to hand out mega contracts like candy, but lets not get too cute hoping for guys like KottAras to be part of a playoff contender.
If all those players collectively fail in 2014 this won't be a very good team regardless of who else they sign. This club was specifically designed to have long term contender aspirations. Letting the intoxication of a World Series title result in go for it now contracts is a great way to be a .500 team for a few years, not just one.
There is no "present dynasty". Dynasties don't exist in baseball if your team works with anything other than financial carte blanche a la the 90's Yankees (who by the way still found that success based largely on a groundswell of in-house talent). The playoffs are still a crap shoot.
What we do know is that the AL East isn't going to suddenly emerge with a powerhouse contender in 2014. The Red Sox played three games below their pythag W-L last season. Tampa Bay played 5 games above theirs. Baltimore was dead even as an 85 win team. This is what a Red Sox club with good pitching and a healthy Pedroia and Ortiz looks like. If luck was removed from the equation they would have won the division by 13 games. I think they can risk some regression in favor of breaking in young guys, just so long as there are layers of depth behind those young guys so that there is no dependence on any one single player for the whole season.
I'm more worried about what the club does at 3B and SS than I am 1B and C. Middlebrooks has good upside, Bogaerts showed in the playoffs it's only a matter of time until he's legit, but right now we have nothing behind either one in case they struggle early or get hurt. Starting Heiker Meneses for 50 games at SS is more likely to make the 2014 team an 85 win club than starting the best of Carp, Hassan, Castellanos, etc. at 1B.