Hot Stove Wishes

[JimD]

You're assuming you can take a 91-92 win season for granted. I do not.

 
You can't take any season for granted, which can also be used as a pretty good rationale for not overpaying guys.  The Sox could commit $60 million next year to keep Ells, Napoli, Drew and Salty in the fold and still fall short of the playoffs if too many players get injured or underperform.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
You can't take any season for granted, which can also be used as a pretty good rationale for not overpaying guys.  The Sox could commit $60 million next year to keep Ells, Napoli, Drew and Salty in the fold and still fall short of the playoffs if too many players get injured or underperform.

Sure. I probably wouldn't take that route, either.

 

[RedOctober3829]

3-year deal(with a 4th year option) for Ruiz is probably why Phillies got him.  I can imagine Red Sox offered him more AAV for 2 years.

According to multiple reports, the Phillies have re-signed catcher Carlos Ruiz to a three-year, $26 million deal. The Red Sox, according to industry sources, had indeed been interested in the 34-year-old (who will turn 35 in January), but according to one source, the Sox were not interested in signing him for three years (at a time when the team has two potential starters in the minor league pipeline — Christian Vazquez, who will start 2014 in Triple-A, and Blake Swihart, who should open next year in Double-A), and so the veteran elected to re-sign with the team with whom he’s spent his entire professional career.
 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/11/18/reports-carlos-ruiz-re-signs-with-phillies-for-three-years/

 

[lxt]

The key to any decision is what the FO does with Napoli and Salty. If they stay then keep WMB, let Workman take LR and trade Dempster. If they go then Headley looks like a nice hedge against any of the young guys fading. Not sold on giving as much away as others for Headley. I think Dempster and the Sox pickup 1/2 his salary, and throw in Kalish, Ty Buttery (RHP - Short A) and Keury De La Cruz (OF - Adv A).
 
With Ruiz & Brendan Ryan (Got it right this time) gone and Hudson likely to be off the market things are little different than they were over the weekend. I'm coming around to the idea of adding Chris Young for Gomez money. He can cover CF/RF. I wonder if we can get Brian Roberts for a year? I still think Chris Perez, Rodney or both would create a killer pen ... send Bailey packing, maybe add him to SD for Headley.
 
<Spelling>

 

[Rasputin]

You're assuming you can take a 91-92 win season for granted. I do not.

The Red Sox have only had two seasons of fewer than 90 wins since 2006. One of those featured a ridiculous collapse to get to 89 and the other featured AAA lineups for the last six weeks of the season.

You can't take any season for granted but it's a pretty good baseline.

 

[Dustin the Wind]

The key to any decision is what the FO does with Napoli and Salty. If they stay then keep WMB, let Workman take LR and trade Dempster. If they go then Headley looks like a nice hedge against any of the young guys fading. Not sold on giving as much away as others for Headley. I think Dempster and the Sox pickup 1/2 his salary, and throw in Kalish, Ty Buttery (RHP - Short A) and Keury De La Cruz (OF - Adv A).
 
With Ruiz & Brendan Ryan (Got it right this time) gone and Hudson likely to be off the market things are little different than they were over the weekend. I'm coming around to the idea of adding Chris Young for Gomez money. He can cover CF/RF. I wonder if we can get Brian Roberts for a year? I still think Chris Perez, Rodney or both would create a killer pen ... send Bailey packing, maybe add him to SD for Headley.
 
<Spelling>

 
Who is Gomez? Are you thinking of Jonny Gomes? And Perez and Rodney are both high risk high reward guys, but wouldn't automatically create a killer pen.. Also, Bailey has next to no trade value right now, he'll be back rehabbing for the first half of 2014, as he's going to be sidelined until July (12 months (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5199/andrew-bailey) after his shoulder surgery)

 

[Super Nomario]

The Red Sox have only had two seasons of fewer than 90 wins since 2006. One of those featured a ridiculous collapse to get to 89 and the other featured AAA lineups for the last six weeks of the season.

You can't take any season for granted but it's a pretty good baseline.

Nit-picking: the 90-win season in 2011 was the epic collapse; the 89-win season was just mediocre, as they finished 6 back of the wild card (they would have been in had the two wild card system been in place).
 
My statement is not one of general pessimism, but a response to the idea we could just plug in rookies / question marks in half the roster and expect to win 91-92 games. Part of the reason the Red Sox have a track record of success is because they work to fill holes and improve the team. I assume they will do so again this offseason. That doesn't mean blocking the rookies and signing a bunch of megastars to huge contracts, but it does mean a judicious mix of young players and veteran alternatives.

 

[SoxLegacy]

The key to any decision is what the FO does with Napoli and Salty. If they stay then keep WMB, let Workman take LR and trade Dempster. If they go then Headley looks like a nice hedge against any of the young guys fading. Not sold on giving as much away as others for Headley. I think Dempster and the Sox pickup 1/2 his salary, and throw in Kalish, Ty Buttery (RHP - Short A) and Keury De La Cruz (OF - Adv A).
 
With Ruiz & Brendan Ryan (Got it right this time) gone and Hudson likely to be off the market things are little different than they were over the weekend. I'm coming around to the idea of adding Chris Young for Gomez money. He can cover CF/RF. I wonder if we can get Brian Roberts for a year? I still think Chris Perez, Rodney or both would create a killer pen ... send Bailey packing, maybe add him to SD for Headley.
 
<Spelling>

 
Brian Roberts from the Orioles? He's 36, has played 192 games since 2010 and is primarily a secondbaseman--he last played at SS in '03--and seems to be an injury magnet. I don't know what role he'd fill on the Sox.

 

[Hoplite]

Brian Roberts is a free agent by the way. But I agree with SoxLegacy, I'm not sure what role he'd fill.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Brian Roberts is a free agent by the way. But I agree with SoxLegacy, I'm not sure what role he'd fill.

Yup. The only position he can play is manned by a far superior player who's hard to move out of the lineup even when hurt. He certainly won't start, and there's zero evidence he has the skill set to be a helpful utility guy. It's hard to imagine a player who should be of less interest to us, without being flat-out useless.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

 
Brian Roberts from the Orioles? He's 36, has played 192 games since 2010 and is primarily a secondbaseman--he last played at SS in '03--and seems to be an injury magnet. I don't know what role he'd fill on the Sox.

You said it yourself, injury magnet.  By moving around the clubhouse in close proximity to the other players he would draw their real and potential injuries away from them and into himself.  His thumb would shred leaving Pedroia's healthy.  His shoulder would weaken leaving Buchholz's strong.  His achilles would stiffen allowing Ortiz to play every game.  He would run out to right field the next time Victorino ran into a wall and Shane would then be able to pop up and keep playing as though nothing had happened.  Injury magnets, man!  The new inefficiency!

 

[SoxLegacy]

You said it yourself, injury magnet.  By moving around the clubhouse in close proximity to the other players he would draw their real and potential injuries away from them and into himself.  His thumb would shred leaving Pedroia's healthy.  His shoulder would weaken leaving Buchholz's strong.  His achilles would stiffen allowing Ortiz to play every game.  He would run out to right field the next time Victorino ran into a wall and Shane would then be able to pop up and keep playing as though nothing had happened.  Injury magnets, man!  The new inefficiency!

Rough, I am not sure if he would be able to draw the full bad mojo from a pitcher, seeing that he's not one himself. Perhaps only a percentage of the identifiable potential or real injury to a position that Roberts has never played at the major league level would be reduced by his presence on the team?

 

[Hoplite]

Corey Hart would make a lot of sense both for him and us. We could offer him a nice 1 year pillow contract, hopefully get some production out of him and a draft pick when he walks. He could rebuild his value in a very friendly park for righthanded hitters. If he's not available, maybe we could get a platoon mate for Carp. Jeff Baker has played some first base and hits lefties very well.

 

[swingin val]

Corey Hart would make a lot of sense both for him and us. We could offer him a nice 1 year pillow contract, hopefully get some production out of him and a draft pick when he walks. He could rebuild his value in a very friendly park for righthanded hitters. If he's not available, maybe we could get a platoon mate for Carp. Jeff Baker has played some first base and hits lefties very well.

Hart having the ability to play OF adds to the intrigue. I would be tempted to go with two of the Carp/Nava/Gomes trifecta to split LF/1B with Hart.

Is there no way to go with a platoon at both 1B and LF? Because a Gomes/Hart againt LHP and Nava/Carp against RHP would put up some excellent numbers.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Hart having the ability to play OF adds to the intrigue. I would be tempted to go with two of the Carp/Nava/Gomes trifecta to split LF/1B with Hart.

Is there no way to go with a platoon at both 1B and LF? Because a Gomes/Hart againt LHP and Nava/Carp against RHP would put up some excellent numbers.

 
Of course we can go with a platoon at both 1B and LF, as long as we're willing to do without a backup OF who can play CF. That's exactly what we did for most of 2013, though we didn't really make use of the double platoon because we used Napoli more as a full-time starter than a platoon player. And we would presumably do the same with Hart if we sign him--it's hard to imagine him knowingly signing a pillow contract with a team that intended to start him <60 games a year, unless he's an idiot or has one for an agent. (EDIT: Or he ends up still waiting for a dance partner in February and has to settle, which is possible.)

 

[Rasputin]

Nit-picking: the 90-win season in 2011 was the epic collapse; the 89-win season was just mediocre, as they finished 6 back of the wild card (they would have been in had the two wild card system been in place).

 
My eyes are old and I suck.
 
 

My statement is not one of general pessimism, but a response to the idea we could just plug in rookies / question marks in half the roster and expect to win 91-92 games. Part of the reason the Red Sox have a track record of success is because they work to fill holes and improve the team. I assume they will do so again this offseason. That doesn't mean blocking the rookies and signing a bunch of megastars to huge contracts, but it does mean a judicious mix of young players and veteran alternatives.

 
Thing is, they mostly can.
 
We're unlikely to spend any significant time getting sub par pitching from anyone. Bradley and Middlebrooks may get significant playing time while underperforming but I rather doubt that would last past the trading deadline. It's certainly possible that enough things could go wrong this off season with catcher and first base, or during the season, but if we're not in the 90 win range, a lot of things will have to have gone wrong first.

 

[chrisfont9]

Corey Hart would make a lot of sense both for him and us. We could offer him a nice 1 year pillow contract, hopefully get some production out of him and a draft pick when he walks. He could rebuild his value in a very friendly park for righthanded hitters. If he's not available, maybe we could get a platoon mate for Carp. Jeff Baker has played some first base and hits lefties very well.

So we can listen to a season of that horrible sunglasses at night as his entrance music? No thanks.

 

[Drek717]

Corey Hart would make a lot of sense both for him and us. We could offer him a nice 1 year pillow contract, hopefully get some production out of him and a draft pick when he walks. He could rebuild his value in a very friendly park for righthanded hitters. If he's not available, maybe we could get a platoon mate for Carp. Jeff Baker has played some first base and hits lefties very well.

They already have two pretty worthwhile in-house options for that potentially.  1. Alex Hassan, solid hitter who took a big step up in AAA last year, RH, can play the corner OF spots and worked at 1B some last year in AAA.  2. Get a solid 5th OF who hits RH and give Gomes a 1B mitt for Christmas, for example Chris Young.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

They already have two pretty worthwhile in-house options for that potentially.  1. Alex Hassan, solid hitter who took a big step up in AAA last year, RH, can play the corner OF spots and worked at 1B some last year in AAA.  2. Get a solid 5th OF who hits RH and give Gomes a 1B mitt for Christmas, for example Chris Young.

 
I suspect that if there was any likelihood of Gomes being even half-decent at 1B, he'd already have played at least a few ML innings there by now. It's not like they've been holding off trying it because he's too valuable in the outfield. And when I think about what makes Gomes a bad OF, now that I've watched him for a year, it's not mostly about range (not good, but not notably awful) or arm (actually pretty good). It's his lack of coordination and agility--the hard hands, the awkward, lunging routes. I have a feeling he would make an epochally awful 1B.
 
Hassan's an interesting option, though.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
We're unlikely to spend any significant time getting sub par pitching from anyone. Bradley and Middlebrooks may get significant playing time while underperforming but I rather doubt that would last past the trading deadline. It's certainly possible that enough things could go wrong this off season with catcher and first base, or during the season, but if we're not in the 90 win range, a lot of things will have to have gone wrong first.

This is basically what I'm talking about though. What are you assuming happens this offseason with catcher and first base? If you assume (as I do) that they won't roll into April with Carp and Lavarnway penciled in along with JBJ, WMB, and Bogaerts, then sure, they should be able to win 90 games. But if we're starting all five of those guys, I don't think 90 wins would be likely.

 

[ivanvamp]

Corey Hart would make a lot of sense both for him and us. We could offer him a nice 1 year pillow contract, hopefully get some production out of him and a draft pick when he walks. He could rebuild his value in a very friendly park for righthanded hitters. If he's not available, maybe we could get a platoon mate for Carp. Jeff Baker has played some first base and hits lefties very well.

 
If Napoli walks, then Hart makes a TON of sense.  Great fit, actually.  

 

[ivanvamp]

 
I suspect that if there was any likelihood of Gomes being even half-decent at 1B, he'd already have played at least a few ML innings there by now. It's not like they've been holding off trying it because he's too valuable in the outfield. And when I think about what makes Gomes a bad OF, now that I've watched him for a year, it's not mostly about range (not good, but not notably awful) or arm (actually pretty good). It's his lack of coordination and agility--the hard hands, the awkward, lunging routes. I have a feeling he would make an epochally awful 1B.
 
Hassan's an interesting option, though.

 
Hassan seems to be a pretty good hitter, but with not much power for a 1b.  34 career homers in 1446 at-bats.  Project that over, say, 500 AB and it comes to just under 12.  Doesn't seem to project like much power at a major league level.  Not that you can't live with a high OBP, doubles kind of guy at 1b, because you can (and his avg and obp this past season in AA and AAA were phenomenal), but I'd like to see more power out of him.

 

[Otis Foster]

 
Hassan seems to be a pretty good hitter, but with not much power for a 1b.  34 career homers in 1446 at-bats.  Project that over, say, 500 AB and it comes to just under 12.  Doesn't seem to project like much power at a major league level.  Not that you can't live with a high OBP, doubles kind of guy at 1b, because you can (and his avg and obp this past season in AA and AAA were phenomenal), but I'd like to see more power out of him.

 
 
http://news.soxprospects.com/2013/10/top-40-season-in-review-luis-diaz-and.html
 
Moderately upbeat on Hassan but hardly confidence-inspiring. He seems to have corrected some mechanical issues but still isn't showing a lot of power. If Napoli walks and WMB flatlines, it leaves them very short on the RH side.

 

[Drek717]

 
Hassan seems to be a pretty good hitter, but with not much power for a 1b.  34 career homers in 1446 at-bats.  Project that over, say, 500 AB and it comes to just under 12.  Doesn't seem to project like much power at a major league level.  Not that you can't live with a high OBP, doubles kind of guy at 1b, because you can (and his avg and obp this past season in AA and AAA were phenomenal), but I'd like to see more power out of him.

He made a noticeable swing adjustment before the 2013 season which led to a significant jump in his ISO in his second year at the AAA level.  Here's a snippet from SoxProspects' 2013 year in review on him:
http://news.soxprospects.com/2013/10/top-40-season-in-review-luis-diaz-and.html

 
First-Hand Report and 2014 Outlook: Hassan has always had solid approach with above-average pitch recognition skills and a knack for putting together quality at-bats. The knock against Hassan, and what kept him under the prospect radar, was fringy batspeed and a lack of power, which combined with a long swing resulted in him struggling to drive the ball and against velocity generally. This season, Hassan made a slight adjustment in his swing mechanics that has gone a long way towards correcting those issues. Hassan switched from a toe-tap in his stride to using a slight leg lift as his timing device. With this slight change, he was noticeably quicker to the ball and his timing at the plate drastically improved. In addition, it has allowed him to get more leverage and as a result drive the ball like one would expect someone with Hassan’s frame to.
 
Defensively, Hassan profiles best in the corner outfield, as his lack of speed limits his range. This year he started to play some first base as well, and in limited action didn’t look out of place at the position. This extra versatility should serve him well going forward, and he could challenge for a bench spot in the big leagues with Red Sox next spring. If he doesn’t make the team out of camp, he will head back to Pawtucket with an eye towards his first big-league call-up early in the season, given his advantage of already being on the 40-man roster. – Ian Cundall

 
If the swing adjustment is legit and has improved his bat speed and power he could have serious potential, as he's always been a great plate discipline and approach guy.  He was a two way guy in college and the Sox originally drafted him as a pitcher, so a longer development period offensively isn't a big surprise.  He's a pretty solid dark horse candidate that they can keep in AAA until needed.

 

[Drek717]

This is basically what I'm talking about though. What are you assuming happens this offseason with catcher and first base? If you assume (as I do) that they won't roll into April with Carp and Lavarnway penciled in along with JBJ, WMB, and Bogaerts, then sure, they should be able to win 90 games. But if we're starting all five of those guys, I don't think 90 wins would be likely.

WMB v. the 3B production from 2013 isn't really much of a risk though.  Even his horrible start was more or less average for what the Sox got out of 3B all season, and if he's anywhere close to splitting the difference between 2012 and 2013 he's a big upgrade to the offense.
 
I'd also argue that Bogaerts isn't significantly more risk than your average ML free agent signing.  Drew for example was a bit of a gamble going into last season and was the best SS option available.  If Bogaerts can play average defense (which all indications now suggest that he will) and hits even close to his Steamer projection (wOBA of .325) which is much more conservative than Bill James' projection he'll be more or less neutral v. 2013 Drew and very possibly better than 2014 Drew.  The risk he engenders is the risk you have any time you don't have a Pedroia/Ortiz type locked in at a position.
 
Catcher, first, and center field is where the risk really lies.  JBJ doesn't need to be up in 2014, a full season at AAA probably wouldn't hurt him in the least.  Carp had promise in a small sample but that was tied to a pretty crazy BABIP and again, a relatively small sample size.  Catcher has a lot of options but none who have made so strong a case you can't help but give them the job (a la Bogaerts).
 
But then that is what this FO designed the roster for last season.  Having Lavarnway, Carp, and JBJ doesn't mean we start Lavarnway, Carp, an JBJ.  But it also doesn't mean the FO has to sign anyone if they don't like the contract it would take to sign them.
 
Would you rather take a risk of slipping back to a ~88-91 win team in 2014 or give Salty a 4 year deal?  Ellsbury a Crawford sized deal?  Napoli 3 years with no hip protection clause?  I'd rather engender more risk with young players in 2014 than buy the long term risk at market rates for those veterans.  If the risks all blow up in our face in 2014 the money will be there to fix them for 2015.  If the risks of giving long term deals to veteran players blow up then you're stuck with the player and lack the capital to buy a better option.
 
At this point I think they're going with a Hanigan type or Lavarnway as Ross' partner for 2014.  Ruiz' deal wasn't bad from an AAV standpoint but if he can get 3 years Salty will likely get 4 and I see no way the FO wants to commit to him for that long.  I think they'd rather give McCann 5/$90M than Salty 4/$40M and I don't think they'd even do the former.  But they'll stick around on McCann to make sure the Yankees pay more than is sensible for him at the very least.
 
Same with Ellsbury and Beltran as the CF options (Beltran with Victorino moving to CF).  They'll stick around on both but once they cross the threshold of what the Sox think is sensible they're out.  I think Beltran does that as soon as a team offers a 4th year (which I'm betting will happen, probably from the Yankees).  Ellsbury could be interesting as it's sounding more and more like no one wants him at 7/$146M.  How many teams jump back in if he's looking at a Jose Reyes type contract of 6 years, $106M?  Who knows but if that ends up being the range I think the Sox will be in serious contention for him.
 
Napoli is the one guy I could see them going out on a bit of a limb for because I think Napoli might meet them half way with a small discount on AAV or some legitimate hip protection.  They probably don't want to give him a 3rd year but if he'll take a vesting 3rd year option or give them an hip related out clause I could see both sides coming to terms.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Would you rather take a risk of slipping back to a ~88-91 win team in 2014 or give Salty a 4 year deal? Ellsbury a Crawford sized deal? Napoli 3 years with no hip protection clause? I'd rather engender more risk with young players in 2014 than buy the long term risk at market rates for those veterans. If the risks all blow up in our face in 2014 . . .


This nails it. We just got Papi a crowning-achievement ring while we still had Ells and Lester. Now is the time to see what we've got in the farm. Tampa does it every year, with the safety net of elite pitching. Which we've got assuming Buch is healthy.

Not saying sign no one. I'd like Nap back. But otherwise let's see who's what among the kids. Hard to imagine that wouldn't translate to Wild Card contention at a minimum.

 

[Super Nomario]

Catcher, first, and center field is where the risk really lies.  JBJ doesn't need to be up in 2014, a full season at AAA probably wouldn't hurt him in the least.  Carp had promise in a small sample but that was tied to a pretty crazy BABIP and again, a relatively small sample size.  Catcher has a lot of options but none who have made so strong a case you can't help but give them the job (a la Bogaerts).
 
But then that is what this FO designed the roster for last season.  Having Lavarnway, Carp, and JBJ doesn't mean we start Lavarnway, Carp, an JBJ.  But it also doesn't mean the FO has to sign anyone if they don't like the contract it would take to sign them.

I think we're on the same page. They're going to do something. That have some flexibility as to what that something is. Right now there are too many question marks, but they will address some of them before the offseason is over.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Same with Ellsbury and Beltran as the CF options (Beltran with Victorino moving to CF).

 
So how bad does JBJ have to be to make us better off with Victorino in CF and Beltran in right than with JBJ in center and Victorino in right? Victorino is probably a minus CF at this point, and Beltran is probably 10 runs worse than Victorino in right, at a minimum. You could easily be giving up 15 runs in defense there. So will Beltran be more than 15 runs better than JBJ offensively? Enough more to make the $ worth it?
 
Steamer, FWIW, projects Beltran to be just over 12 runs better on offense than JBJ (12.2/-0.1), so if they're right, and if I'm right that the overall defensive downgrade from JBJ/Victorino to Victorino/Beltran is in the 15-run range, then we'd be paying Beltran's salary to get a little worse. Even if they're being unduly pessimistic on Beltran, and he matches his 2013 offensive performance (pretty rosy scenario for a 37-year-old moving to a tougher league), then we'd be paying $15M (or whatever he would cost) for about a half a win. Doesn't sound like this club's MO, unless they're really convinced Bradley isn't ready and they're ruling out giving him the Opening Day job.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
So how bad does JBJ have to be to make us better off with Victorino in CF and Beltran in right than with JBJ in center and Victorino in right? Victorino is probably a minus CF at this point, and Beltran is probably 10 runs worse than Victorino in right, at a minimum. You could easily be giving up 15 runs in defense there. So will Beltran be more than 15 runs better than JBJ offensively? Enough more to make the $ worth it?
 
Steamer, FWIW, projects Beltran to be just over 12 runs better on offense than JBJ (12.2/-0.1), so if they're right, and if I'm right that the overall defensive downgrade from JBJ/Victorino to Victorino/Beltran is in the 15-run range, then we'd be paying Beltran's salary to get a little worse. Even if they're being unduly pessimistic on Beltran, and he matches his 2013 offensive performance (pretty rosy scenario for a 37-year-old moving to a tougher league), then we'd be paying $15M (or whatever he would cost) for about a half a win. Doesn't sound like this club's MO, unless they're really convinced Bradley isn't ready and they're ruling out giving him the Opening Day job.

What if Beltran replaces Nava instead, sliding Nava into the fourth OF role (where he'd still probably get 300 ABs)? Typical lineup is Beltran in LF, Bradley in CF, Victorino in RF. If Bradley underperforms his projections, then you can roll out the Nava / Victorino / Beltran lineup. 

 

[Joshv02]

You sign Beltran to replace Napoli, not Bradley.  You stream Nava/Beltran in LF, with Nava at 1B, Bradley at CF, and Victorino at RF.  Beltran moves to RF and Victorino to CF when you give Bradley a day (or the rest of the season, if he sucks) off.  It just means that your backup CFer is also your starting RF, with a really defensively challenged bench (Carp/Gomes).  If you need to give a guy a day off, you can move Nava to a corner OF position (hopefully left) and Carp to 1B, or just bring in Gomes to play LF.  
 
Beltran isn't an either/or with Bradley, per se.  He is an either/or with one of Bradley/Victorino/Napoli/Nava, with the most likely one being Napoli.  
 
edit: Or, what SN said.  Basically, you pick one of the four to replace depending on your confidence level.

 

[benhogan]

 
Would you rather take a risk of slipping back to a ~88-91 win team in 2014 or give Salty a 4 year deal?  Ellsbury a Crawford sized deal?  Napoli 3 years with no hip protection clause?  I'd rather engender more risk with young players in 2014 than buy the long term risk at market rates for those veterans.  If the risks all blow up in our face in 2014 the money will be there to fix them for 2015.  If the risks of giving long term deals to veteran players blow up then you're stuck with the player and lack the capital to buy a better option.
 
 

Agree, go with kids/in-house options. I would add that they could make a trade for another player in June/July of 2014 to fill holes where this strategy hasn't worked out.
 
So with that in mind go after a RHH platoon partner in CF with JBJ this off season, maybe sign Chris Young, Rajai Davis, trade for Denorfia (pipe dream). Give Mike Carp the initial look at first base with Nava backing up and Hassan (and Brentz) working on 1st base skills at AAA.
 
Just think it may be easier to find a first basemen or corner OF that could play first (if Carp, Nava, Hassan, Brentz all don't work out) during the middle of the 2014 season then a RHH CF.

 

[Hoplite]

Would you rather take a risk of slipping back to a ~88-91 win team in 2014 or give Salty a 4 year deal?  Ellsbury a Crawford sized deal?  Napoli 3 years with no hip protection clause?  I'd rather engender more risk with young players in 2014 than buy the long term risk at market rates for those veterans.  If the risks all blow up in our face in 2014 the money will be there to fix them for 2015.  If the risks of giving long term deals to veteran players blow up then you're stuck with the player and lack the capital to buy a better option.

 
This is a bit of a false dilemma. There is a sweet spot in which we can operate which would hedge against losses in production without giving away large contract. We could sign Corey Hart to a pillow contract (like we did with Drew last year), trade a B prospect for Ryan Hanigan (like we did with Carp last year), and sign a reliever coming off an injury like Crain or Madson (like we did with Uehara last year). That would maximize our potential draft picks both this year and next year. And if Hart's not available, we have the roster flexibility to put Nava at first base and sign someone like Chris Young to be a starting outfielder alongside Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Agree, go with kids/in-house options. I would add that they could make a trade for another player in June/July of 2014 to fill holes where this strategy hasn't worked out.
 
So with that in mind go after a RHH platoon partner in CF with JBJ this off season, maybe sign Chris Young, Rajai Davis, trade for Denorfia (pipe dream). Give Mike Carp the initial look at first base with Nava backing up and Hassan (and Brentz) working on 1st base skills at AAA.
 
Just think it may be easier to find a first basemen or corner OF that could play first (if Carp, Nava, Hassan, Brentz all don't work out) during the middle of the 2014 season then a RHH CF.

 
JBJ has no platoon splits - he doesn't need to be platooned. All you are saying is you want a fall back position in case he fails. 500 ABs will tell you a hell of a lot more about his future than 300 will.
 
If Carp is the 1Bman then a backup CF will be possible. But I really don't see the FO going all in with kids at SS,3B,1B,CF and C. (Not that Carp is a kid - but he's not a sure thing)
 
If Napoli leaves then I think Beltran (or Corey Hart I suppose) is the logical FA option.  And there's always a trade ..
 
Since this is the hot stove wishes thread:
 
- I sign Napoli at 2/30 + a mutual option for a 3rd - the player's option dependent on a minimum AB threshold to give some protection against the hip deteriorating. Plan B is a Corey Hart/Carp platoon. Plan C is Beltran in LF with Carp and Nava splitting time at first. Gomes ? The Honourary Kevin Millar Mascot position..
 
- JBJ gets the CF gig - fulltime
 
- X gets the SS gig fulltime
 
- WMB is the 3B
 
- C - If you can get Salty at a reasonable rate (3/30 for example ) I think I would do that - plan B is Hanigan, plan C is Lavarnway, Plan D is McCann
 
- sign a versatile backup middle infielder
 
- If you keep Carp/Gomes/Nava then the backup CF is Victorino
 
- Get Dempster off the roster - we need the money and there's plenty of depth in Pawtucket. Plus I want the kids getting spot starts if (when) one of the rotation goes down.
 
- Sign a couple of high upside middle relievers  - or trade Dempster for one.

 

[benhogan]

 
JBJ has no platoon splits - he doesn't need to be platooned. All you are saying is you want a fall back position in case he fails. 500 ABs will tell you a hell of a lot more about his future than 300 will.
 
If Carp is the 1Bman then a backup CF will be possible. But I really don't see the FO going all in with kids at SS,3B,1B,CF and C. (Not that Carp is a kid - but he's not a sure thing)
 
If Napoli leaves then I think Beltran (or Corey Hart I suppose) is the logical FA option.  And there's always a trade ..
 
Since this is the hot stove wishes thread:
 
- I sign Napoli at 2/30 + a mutual option for a 3rd - the player's option dependent on a minimum AB threshold to give some protection against the hip deteriorating. Plan B is a Corey Hart/Carp platoon. Plan C is Beltran in LF with Carp and Nava splitting time at first. Gomes ? The Honourary Kevin Millar Mascot position..
 
- JBJ gets the CF gig - fulltime
 
- X gets the SS gig fulltime
 
- WMB is the 3B
 
- C - If you can get Salty at a reasonable rate (3/30 for example ) I think I would do that - plan B is Hanigan, plan C is Lavarnway, Plan D is McCann
 
- sign a versatile backup middle infielder
 
- If you keep Carp/Gomes/Nava then the backup CF is Victorino
 
- Get Dempster off the roster - we need the money and there's plenty of depth in Pawtucket. Plus I want the kids getting spot starts if (when) one of the rotation goes down.
 
- Sign a couple of high upside middle relievers  - or trade Dempster for one.

Yep pretty much agree with your thought process, would love to resign Napoli and Salty (think he gets more then 3 yrs). Also like your back-up plans.
 
My minor quibble is adding depth to CF (love Victorino in RF) by signing some "JBJ overwhelmed" insurance instead of going and signing Hart.  Just feel Carp may be ready to break out, and if I'm wrong we have some depth at 1st to fall back on or we would be able to do a mid season acquisition of a first basemen if all options fail.
 
If you really love Hart much more then Carp, maybe you deal Carp for a back up CF and sign Hart. 

 

[joe dokes]

I wish.......that Cincinnatti gets so fed up with Joey Votto's unwillingness to make outs that they give him away*
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot
 
 
 
 
 
*along with a boatload of cash to help pay that insane contract down the road . . . . .

 

[Devizier]

 
 
JBJ has no platoon splits

 
That would be true if you discount his 2013 season in AAA/majors while emphasizing his 2012 season in A/AA.
 
Even though Bradley had more minor league at-bats in 2012, he faced left handers a roughly equal amount of the time. When you add in his MLB service, the 2013 sample is larger.
 
2013 (AAA)
 
331 PA versus RHP, batted 266/355/484 (839 OPS)
150 PA versus LHP, batted 230/349/333 (682 OPS)
 
2013 (MLB)
 
78 PA versus RHP, batted 229/308/414 (722 OPS)
29 PA versus LHP, batted 080/207/120 (327 OPS)
 
2012 (A/AA)
 
419 PA versus RHP, batted 319/439/476 (915 OPS)
156 PA versus LHP, batted 305/404/496 (900 OPS)

 

[Drek717]

 

 
So how bad does JBJ have to be to make us better off with Victorino in CF and Beltran in right than with JBJ in center and Victorino in right? Victorino is probably a minus CF at this point, and Beltran is probably 10 runs worse than Victorino in right, at a minimum. You could easily be giving up 15 runs in defense there. So will Beltran be more than 15 runs better than JBJ offensively? Enough more to make the $ worth it?
 
Steamer, FWIW, projects Beltran to be just over 12 runs better on offense than JBJ (12.2/-0.1), so if they're right, and if I'm right that the overall defensive downgrade from JBJ/Victorino to Victorino/Beltran is in the 15-run range, then we'd be paying Beltran's salary to get a little worse. Even if they're being unduly pessimistic on Beltran, and he matches his 2013 offensive performance (pretty rosy scenario for a 37-year-old moving to a tougher league), then we'd be paying $15M (or whatever he would cost) for about a half a win. Doesn't sound like this club's MO, unless they're really convinced Bradley isn't ready and they're ruling out giving him the Opening Day job.

I think Victorino could be about an average CF, and while Beltran had a very poor year in RF this past season by both UZR and DRS he was well in the positives for both in 2012.  Given the sample size needs for defensive metrics there is a legitimate argument that can be made for him being more or less average defensively.
 
Also, I'd join the chorus that signing Beltran isn't as much about displacing JBJ as hedging offensive risk.  I think you still go with Nava/Gomes in LF, Victorino in CF, and Beltran in RF with Bradley as the backup to both Beltran and Victorino (should be good for plenty of ABs and provides a defensive replacement if needed).
 
To me he wouldn't even be a Napoli replacement, as I think a team with both Napoli and Beltran makes a lot of sense.  Beltran is an alternative pathway to replacing Ellsbury's offense and would slot well in a lineup with Victorino 1, Pedroia 2, Beltran 3, Ortiz 4, and Napoli 5.
 
It does downgrade the defense, but it quite possibly upgrades the offense.  More than one way to skin a cat and all that.

 
 

I think we're on the same page. They're going to do something. That have some flexibility as to what that something is. Right now there are too many question marks, but they will address some of them before the offseason is over.

 
Sure, assuming the cost isn't prohibitive.  I mean, they'll do something in some way, even if it's a Mike Carp type move where they pay another team for a borderline guy that they can stash as depth.  But I think Cherrington's entire last 12 months have been focused on not "needing" anything.  Case in point the acquisition of Alex Castellanos during the playoffs.  Castellanos has strong offensive potential and has positional versatility, basically allowing a single man to be a AAA backstop at both corners, 3B, and 2B if needed.  Acquiring Mike Carp was a 2013 hedge against Ortiz and Napoli each being healthy, but also a 2014 hedge about Napoli not coming back.  Those are the kinds of moves I'd expect if the tier 1 and 2 FAs price themselves out of consideration.

 

 
This is a bit of a false dilemma. There is a sweet spot in which we can operate which would hedge against losses in production without giving away large contract. We could sign Corey Hart to a pillow contract (like we did with Drew last year), trade a B prospect for Ryan Hanigan (like we did with Carp last year), and sign a reliever coming off an injury like Crain or Madson (like we did with Uehara last year). That would maximize our potential draft picks both this year and next year. And if Hart's not available, we have the roster flexibility to put Nava at first base and sign someone like Chris Young to be a starting outfielder alongside Jackie Bradley Jr.

It isn't a false dilemma, as it's not really a dilemma at all.  You simply don't make a bad long term deal to fill a short term hole.  
 
If Hart will take a 1 year deal at reasonable money sure, bring him aboard, but I'd have to imagine that coming to Fenway and competing with Carp for ABs is less appealing than going somewhere that has zero competition for him.  The Brewers have also expressed interest in bringing him back and he previously stated a willingness to give a home town discount.  So just how much would the Sox have to fluff the pillow to get him?  Also, he isn't a massively superior hedge against risk than Carp as he's 1. had surgery on both of his knees now and 2. has played in a hitter friendly home park his whole career so isn't looking to see much of a Fenway bounce.
 
If the position player market doesn't pan out I'd love to see the Sox go reliever shopping as the market there is pretty saturated and I think you can make out pretty well as a result.  My personal choice would be Chris Perez because he's comparatively young, just lost a closer job so won't be targeted as a "closer" by many teams and therefore out of the closer money, and you could probably get him to sign a pretty team friendly 2 year deal with a third year option.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I wish.......that Cincinnatti gets so fed up with Joey Votto's unwillingness to make outs that they give him away*
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot
 
 
 
 
 
*along with a boatload of cash to help pay that insane contract down the road . . . . .

 
Man, it's articles like this that make me miss Firejoemorgan the most. 

I thought we were done with that kind of nonsense.

 

[RedOctober3829]

JIM BOWDEN ‏@JimBowdenESPNxm 2m
Corey Hart says that his agent have talked to Boston, TB, Colorado and MIlw amongst other interested team
 

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Corey Hart is going to get paid more than most people expect, because power is getting more scarce than it has been, and if he's healthy, he's got power. He'd be a good pickup for the Sox, but he might end up getting offered more than we would prefer to give a guy who missed all of last year.
 
If Ellsbury leaves, then a good guy for the Red Sox to target for a cheap AAA pickup would be Dan Robertson from the Padres, a sort of combination between Nava and Pedroia.
 
He's a short OF, bats RH, can play all 3 OF spots, steals some bases and gets on base. Too old to be a prospect, and another PCL hitter, and short, so he likely wouldn't cost much and wouldn't be anything more than another guy to keep in AAA for depth. He could be a guy who gets a shot to come up for a while if Bradley starts out really badly and needs to get sent back down for a while. Rather than tying up a major league roster spot with a Bradley insurance policy, we could have one in AAA.
 
He represents depth for the Padres too, so they wouldn't just give him away for nothing, but considering his height and age, they shouldn't ask for much. He seems like he'd fit in well with the Red Sox organization, and I care a lot more about his OBP than his height.
 
In addition to Crain and Madson mentioned above, another possibility for the bullpen might John Axford, if he gets non-tendered. He supposedly made some mechanical adjustments after joining the Cardinals, and looked like a guy with a real live arm in the postseason. If he does get non-tendered, he will be looking for a job as a closer I'm sure, but we should keep tabs on him in case that doesn't work out for him.
 
I suppose my Hot Stove wish is for another season of "deep depth," which is what Cherington preached all season and which worked fantastically well. No need to change that. Let's have another season of average or better players at every position, a relentless offense with no easy outs, a deep pitching staff with lots of internal options, lots of roster flexibility, and more "deep depth" throughout the organization.

 

[KillerBs]

Corey Hart is going to get paid more than most people expect, because power is getting more scarce than it has been, and if he's healthy, he's got power. He'd be a good pickup for the Sox, but he might end up getting offered more than we would prefer to give a guy who missed all of last year.
 
If Ellsbury leaves, then a good guy for the Red Sox to target for a cheap AAA pickup would be Dan Robertson from the Padres, a sort of combination between Nava and Pedroia.
 
He's a short OF, bats RH, can play all 3 OF spots, steals some bases and gets on base. Too old to be a prospect, and another PCL hitter, and short, so he likely wouldn't cost much and wouldn't be anything more than another guy to keep in AAA for depth. He could be a guy who gets a shot to come up for a while if Bradley starts out really badly and needs to get sent back down for a while. Rather than tying up a major league roster spot with a Bradley insurance policy, we could have one in AAA.
 
He represents depth for the Padres too, so they wouldn't just give him away for nothing, but considering his height and age, they shouldn't ask for much. He seems like he'd fit in well with the Red Sox organization, and I care a lot more about his OBP than his height.
 
In addition to Crain and Madson mentioned above, another possibility for the bullpen might John Axford, if he gets non-tendered. He supposedly made some mechanical adjustments after joining the Cardinals, and looked like a guy with a real live arm in the postseason. If he does get non-tendered, he will be looking for a job as a closer I'm sure, but we should keep tabs on him in case that doesn't work out for him.
 
I suppose my Hot Stove wish is for another season of "deep depth," which is what Cherington preached all season and which worked fantastically well. No need to change that. Let's have another season of average or better players at every position, a relentless offense with no easy outs, a deep pitching staff with lots of internal options, lots of roster flexibility, and more "deep depth" throughout the organization.

 
This guy seems like a potential fit, if the Sox do not end up with 2 lefty 1b/Lf on the roster.
 
SD does seem like an intriguing potential trade partner overall. Headley has been discussed. Separately: is Cameron Maybin out of the question? Kyle Blanks? Guzman looks like he could be plus bench guy. I presume Alonso is off limits. They seem like they have a surplus of 1Bmen and OFers (incl. Rey Fuentes knocking on the door), even a C to spare too perhaps, as mentioned elsewhere. Perhaps we could spare a young pitcher to two for the right return.
 
I wonder if the Sox are looking on an upgrade from Holt for the UI position. A lefty hitter who could cover 2b/3b/SS would be ideal but they are not exactly laying around, though I did stumble across this guy, who I find of interest:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walteza01.shtml
 
I see the Nats are looking for lefties in the pen. I wonder if Franklin Morales would be any interest to them?

 

[lxt]

 
Who is Gomez? Are you thinking of Jonny Gomes? And Perez and Rodney are both high risk high reward guys, but wouldn't automatically create a killer pen.. Also, Bailey has next to no trade value right now, he'll be back rehabbing for the first half of 2014, as he's going to be sidelined until July (12 months (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5199/andrew-bailey) after his shoulder surgery)

Sorry Gomes, fingers out paced head. Both Perez & Rodney have closed and were setup guys. Adding them to Uehara, Breslow, Tazawa, Workman & Dempster would most certainly create a killer pen. With backups like Morales, RDLR, Miller & the cast of prospects would create huge depth. I like the idea of having three, may be four guys capable of stepping up and closing or setting things up. Breslow & Tazawa are great 7 inning guys. Dempster and Workman are solid long guys & spot starters.
 
I know Bailey has little value. I'm saying he has little value on or off the field. Give him away.
 
Sorry about the Roberts thought ... no humor out there ... The two guys I was hoping for are no longer available ... options limited in the FA space. The SD avenue for backup IF sounds like a good path to follow.
 
Warming further to Young coming on board. Not a fan of adding Beltran. Not sold on Hart.
 
Still all depends on what FO does with Napoli & Salty. Until they decide what they want to do then this Forum has plenty to talk about.
 
For those of you who love to nab me on miss spelled names - I'll try to give you stuff to "snap" at, you do it well.
 
<Spelling, not of names>

 

[Hoplite]

I think the only way Chris Young would work would be if we used Nava at first base, used Young, Bradley and Victorino in the outfield and had Gomes and Carp as the backup outfielders. It doesn't seem like we're willing to trade Nava or Gomes.

 

[lxt]

What about this kid Bryce Brentz? Write up on him seems positive. Already in AAA. Does he have the potential to make a push to come up this season.

 

[JimBoSox9]

What about this kid Bryce Brentz? Write up on him seems positive. Already in AAA. Does he have the potential to make a push to come up this season.

 
lol geez well howzabout this kiddo?
 
He was drafted in 2010.  He's been on system top-10 prospect lists within the past year.  There's a minor league forum on this very site.  '
 
Pro tip: ostensibly, the click of the "post" button should signal a belief on your part that what you've written is worth me (or anyone) reading.  Do you think you're injecting Brentz into the conversation, like the dozens of people who have posted actual, real thoughts in this thread don't already know who he is and where he fits in?
 
If you think he should be a part of the conversation, make a case.  If you don't, wait for someone to bring him up, and then make a case.  If you just want help discovering him, go elsewhere.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

If Ellsbury leaves, then a good guy for the Red Sox to target for a cheap AAA pickup would be Dan Robertson from the Padres, a sort of combination between Nava and Pedroia.

He's like Pedroia because he's short. But Pedroia is amazing *in spite of* being short, not because of it. He's like Nava because he's old for a prospect....lather, rinse, repeat. 
 
Nava had a .912 minor league OPS. Robertson has a .789. And he just racked up a .756 OPS in AAA--at age 27. Yeah, OK, he draws a lot of walks. Is there any evidence he does anything else well enough to survive at the ML level? ML pitchers aren't going to be nibbling against a guy who couldn't muster a .100 ISO in AAA at 27.

 

[wine111]

Let me rephrase.  Bradley has not shown good plate discipline in his brief MLB stint (as in drawing walks) along with a pretty high strikeout rate.  I understand he shows much better patience with his minor league numbers.  Until he shows a good month of drawing walks and getting on base in the majors, I would prefer to see Nava leading off.  It should help keep some pressure off Bradley to hit him 8th to start out and help the Sox early in the season by having a proven quality MLB on base percentage hitter leading off.  I would not count spring training in that evaluative time period. 

 

[lxt]

 
lol geez well howzabout this kiddo?
 
He was drafted in 2010.  He's been on system top-10 prospect lists within the past year.  There's a minor league forum on this very site.  '
 
Pro tip: ostensibly, the click of the "post" button should signal a belief on your part that what you've written is worth me (or anyone) reading.  Do you think you're injecting Brentz into the conversation, like the dozens of people who have posted actual, real thoughts in this thread don't already know who he is and where he fits in?
 
If you think he should be a part of the conversation, make a case.  If you don't, wait for someone to bring him up, and then make a case.  If you just want help discovering him, go elsewhere.  

Damn, woke you up on the wrong side of the bed did we.
 

• He's a solid defensive player
• Has hit with power
• Needs to be a tad more selective in his pitch selection
• Played extremely well in the playoffs (AAA)
• Showed continuous improvement throughout the year - was hitting around .300 at the end of the season
• Is not fast but has base running smarts
• Seems to be a good kid who is willing to listen and learn - good club house presences

 
What I was trying to broach was that this kid seems to have a lot of upside that could be a potential benefit to the team next year or at a minimum 2015. The Sox should be considering him in their discuss of what to do this season and long-term. We have Victorino until 2015, Gomes (Got it right) this season, JBJ for a nice while and Nava & Carp. Can this kid fill a hole in 2014? Is he solid enough to step up in 2015 or 2016 in RF. Should we not be adding this kid into the discussion when we throw out names like Cecchini, Swihart & Vazquez?
 
We've been talking about all kinds of OF solutions for the short term, can this kid prove to be a long-term answer? 
 
<Tried to clean things up a bit, sorry about the poor grammar and spelling>

 

[Drek717]

 
We've been talking about all kinds of OF for short term solutions. Can this kid prove to be a long-term answer like we are hoping JBJ is?

Brentz took a step back offensively last year and missed a bunch of time due to injury last season. He should repeat AAA in 2014, then hopefully take Gomes' place in 2015 as Nava 's LHP partner. If he handles both of those jobs well and his defense continues to play in RF he could be Victorino's replacement in 2016.

 

[Hoplite]

We need a backup infielder who at the very least could play shortstop. I'd nominate Juan Uribe. The last five years, he's compiled a WAR of 11.4. He's had a 96 wRC+ and a 102 wRC+ against righties. He has a 19.7 UZR/150 at third base and a 3.2 UZR at shortstop.
 
Wilson Betemit is also somewhat interesting because of his 126 wRC+ against righties (last five years). He'd be an all-bat platoon option for Middlebrooks and/or Bogaerts. He's not very good defensively though.