Heyman: Ellsbury to sign seven-year deal with Yankees

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nvalvo

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RedOctober3829 said:
There's an 8th year option that would raise the value to $169 million. That's the 9th richest contract in baseball history. Jacoby Ellsbury will have a top 10 contract in history. Let that sink in.
 
Whose option? Vesting? This contract is bonkers. 
 
Remember when board consensus was that 5/$90 might be enough?  
 

Savin Hillbilly

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BosRedSox5 said:
I really like Jacoby Ellsbury, but almost $22 million a year seems so idiotic. 

1.) He's got a history of injuries. Sure, some of them seemed like freak accidents, but of his 7 seasons, 2 were hampered by injuries. 
2.) A lot of his value comes from his speed. Players don't typically retain their elite speed from ages 30-37. 
3.) Career OPS+ of 108. Ellsbury certainly has talent, but baseballreference has two seasons where he had a WAR of 5 or higher (which they consider "all-star" level). This is a huge risk because Ellsbury hasn't put up anywhere near the long term, consistent numbers to justify a contract like this. When Crawford was signed he had much more consistent success. 
 
This contract is mind boggling. Why would anyone pay that kind of money for a player who doesn't have a consistent history of success, a projectable model for future success and off the charts character? 
 
1. No, some of them didn't seem like freak accidents, all of them--or should I say both of them--seemed like--or should I say were--freak accidents. Of his 7 seasons, 2 were hampered by injuries. Yes. Those were the seasons with the freak accidents. There is zero evidence that Jacoby Ellsbury is any more injury-prone than the average athlete.
2. This has been disposed of well by Dave Cameron. Short version: players like Ellsbury tend to decline gradually rather than precipitously.
3. This is a reasonable point, except that we don't really know what would have happened in those freak-injury seasons. Of course a contract like this is very risky; that's a given. But all Ellsbury has to do to earn it is produce about 25 wins over seven seasons. That may be asking a lot of his good fortune, but not really of his talent.
 

JimBoSox9

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I think this is the perfect decision for Ellsbury. The short porch lets him indulge his inner pull-happy child and probably helps lengthen his aging curve, his defensive profile fits perfectly in LF, and most importantly he doesn't need to be the Face Of The Franchise. I very much don't think that's his thing, and there will always be two or three others about that may block the cameras from him.

I'm glad as hell it isn't the Sox on the other end of that contract, but I'm resigned that there is absolutely going to be 2-4 years over the life of that thing that sting more than a bit.
 

crow216

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Hey now you have both Gardner AND Ellsbury. :D


Unless they plan on trading Gardner? I'm confused right now.
 

Oil Can Dan

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I'm so conflicted.  It seems just a couple years ago I was reading about this shiny new draft pick that used to chase deer. 
 
Thanks for the memories in any event.  If I'm in the house you'll get a standing ovation from me on your first at-bat in Fenway then silence thereafter.
 

twibnotes

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I'm not really upset, I figured he was gone anyway, but the Yankees unlimited payroll pisses me off. They sign A-Rod knowing he is dirty, get value for their dollar out of him for the first few years of a contract, and then it looks like when he won't be worth the money they're going to get away without having to pay him at all. It's such bullshit. They're essentially getting Ellsbury for 'free' because MLB has decided only to hold individual players accountable for PEDs, not the teams who subtly encourage their use. The Yankees are the real winners of the steroid era.


This is what really needs to change. It's utter horseshit that the MFYs might be relieved of that salary obligation. We need a real commissioner so badly.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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LostinNJ said:
With Gardner, Suzuki, Ellsbury, and Wells, it looks like they have plenty of outfielders.
I dunno, I only count two MLB-caliber players here.
 
When I read earlier today that the Mariners were in hard on Cano, my first thought was "Great, no Cano on the MFY". My second thought was "Oh... but they need to spend that dough on something, and I'd guess it'll be Ellsbury."
 
Spending 28/year for 7 years on Cano, or 22/year for 7 years on Ellsbury are both suckers' bets and sure to be ugly four years hence... but the Yankees play by different rules and good for them, I guess.
 
The thing is, even Ells, Teixeira, and Gardner manage to stay healthy this year (which would be at least a little unexpected) they still have so far to go with their pitching.  And pitching tends to be kind of important.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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The Yankess might not admit it but they are operating on the premise that A-Rod is suspended for the entire 2014 season, which is a safe assumption.
 
The Yankees will have a piss poor draft.  They already lost their first round pick and will lose whatever pick they gain for Granderson, who is clearly not returning.
 
I suppose they could still get a pick for Cano, but they need some starting pitching too and so I wouldn't be surprised if they sign someone like U.Jimenez or another free agent with a QO.
 
The Yankees farm system will remain weak.....
 

twibnotes

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Scott Boras is amazing.


I'm sure he's good at his job, but I also think if you're patient, it's not THAT hard. You only need one dumb owner, and there are plenty out there in pro sports.
 

amfox1

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jon abbey said:
Someone should run the numbers, though. No A-Rod and no Cano still may leave them a good amount of space, even with McCann and Ellsbury.
 
Your command is my wish:
 
Rotation (42.40 AAV + FA) - Sabathia (24.40 AAV), Kuroda (assume re-signed at 16.00 AAV), Pineda (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV), Nova (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV) + FA
 
Bullpen (7.50 AAV + FA) - Robertson (arb3, assume 4.00 AAV), Phelps (min, 0.50 AAV), Kelley (arb2, assume 1.50 AAV), Warren (min, 0.50 AAV), Betances (min, 0.50 AAV), Claiborne (min, 0.50 AAV) + FA LHP
 
Lineup (130.87 AAV + FA) – Ellsbury (21.87 AAV), Jeter (17.00 AAV), Cano (assume re-signed at 25.00 AAV), Soriano (17.00 AAV), McCann (17.00 AAV), Teixeira (22.50 AAV), Gardner (arb3, assume 4.00 AAV), FA 3B, Suzuki (6.50 AAV) 
 
Bench (22.10 AAV) - Cervelli (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV), Ryan (2.50 AAV), Nunez (min, assume 0.60 AAV), Wells (18.0 AAV) 
 
This assumes Rodriguez is suspended for the entire 2014 season.
 
Total AAV is 202.87 plus the cost of three free agents (a solid #2/3 starter, a LOOGY and a 3B), plus 17.00 AAV in benefits/40 man roster, less 36.24 AAV the team is owed from other teams.  
 
That gives the Yankees approximately $6 million to spend and remain under the luxury tax (even after assuming Cano/Kuroda signings).
 
If Cano is not re-signed (which is my assumption with the Ellsbury signing), they could trade for Brandon Phillips to play 2B and still have some room to fill out their roster. 
 

BeantownIdaho

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I don't see the Yankees adding Cano and Tanaka at this poit...Cano alone would be adding over 400 million in salary (total contracts) and Tanaka would put them over 500 million in total contracts between 4 players. I know they reactive rather than proactive, but would they really do something that stupid?
 

Devizier

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Suzuki is still a decent player, although he's fading fast. Wells is replacement-level right now.
 
One wonders if Gardner and Ellsbury's overlapping zones will cause a reduction in their defensive impact. I know this was brought up during the Ellsbury-Cameron days but that never really came to fruition. Obviously, it didn't seem to matter much for Ellsbury-Victorino, but Fenway's right field is sort of a unique case.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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CaskNFappin said:
"Ben, it's Jigga, get Pedey on 3 way....lets talk some business"
 
That would be great. I think only Marcus Mariota from Nike U got a bigger AAV than Jacoby today. 
 
Lets just go nuts 
 
Cano...trade for Stanton...sign Tanaka...
 
Just go nuts!
 
Honestly if they replace the bat in some other fashion than losing Ellsbury won't be that big of a deal. 
 

mr_smith02

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RedOctober3829 said:
There's an 8th year option that would raise the value to $169 million. That's the 9th richest contract in baseball history. Jacoby Ellsbury will have a top 10 contract in history. Let that sink in.
Sorry, Jacoby is not worth it. Had it been another player (Pedoria, Ortiz, Lester) I'd be seriously upset. Ellsbury never looked truly comfortable in a beard or in a Sox uniform. Very good player, but not worth the 9th richest contract of all time.
 

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twibnotes said:
I'm sure he's good at his job, but I also think if you're patient, it's not THAT hard. You only need one dumb owner, and there are plenty out there in pro sports.
 
Boras has basically made a career out of the Yankees deep pockets. Either by playing them against other teams to drive up the price, or by playing them against themselves. Its quite genius. 
 

cherno

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In the thread today about the Sox signing AJ Pierzynski, someone did a WAR comparison between McCann & AJP. Basically the net pick-up by the Yankees at catcher was about +3.5 games. Assuming Bradley or Vic plays CF next year, can anyone tell me the additional projected net gain by the Yankees after this signing? 
 
nm, FanGraphs has Vic & Ells WARs at 5.5 & 5.8 respectively, but the wild card here is the addition of JBJ to the potential starting line up. Probably use more Nava/Gomes in RF/LF until Bradley ready. 
 
SO ready to start the JBJ era.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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At that price, I'm glad the Sox didn't sign him, of course, but it being the Yankees I really wish it had been a bigger overpay.  I don't view that as a massive overpay.  High, yes.  Crippling, no.  6/126 was where I thought the Red Sox should top out.  So, to me, this contract is bad in year 7, which is a long way away.  $21 to $22 million in each of the next 4 years seems easily worth it.  I think he'll accumulate 16 wins over that time in Yankee Stadium fairly easily.
 
That team has a lot of speed now.
 

BosRedSox5

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DukeSox said:
If you're selling jeans, Jacoby is your man.
 
Love it. Jacoby is seriously the old school, scouts love him kinda guy. 

Also, I'm sick of people saying "Well, you can't blame the player, they went where the most money was." I call bullshit. What about loyalty and integrity? If I worked for Costco or something, and I made $60,000 a year as a department manager or whatever and I had good benefits and the culture was good yada yada yada and Sam's Club offered me 65 or 70 grand I wouldn't take it. There's some stuff you can't put a price on.
 

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SouthernBoSox said:
The Red Sox show restrain and in doing so lose an overpaid, over extended, though good player to the Yankees.

The Red Sox changed their formula last year and it netted instant success. The Yankess are still doing the same old thing they always do. I, for one, and proud they are sticking to their guns.
 
I would quibble with the bold section.  Over the last three seasons he's been one of the top 10 or so players in the game.  13th in fWAR and 19th in rWAR this year.  He was 1st in fWAR and 2nd in rWAR in 2011.  In the last three years, even with a lost 2012 because of his injuries, he ranks 10th in fWAR accumulated.
 
The Yankees overpaid, but they are getting one of the best players in the game.  How long he remains one of the best players in the game is up for debate, but in the immediate future he makes them a much better team.
 
SemperFidelisSox said:
Option for 8th year that could raise total to $169.
 
So, assuming this is a vesting option, does Cano dig his heels in at 8 years?  I don't see any reason he shouldn't.
 

twibnotes

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Boras has basically made a career out of the Yankees deep pockets. Either by playing them against other teams to drive up the price, or by playing them against themselves. Its quite genius.


Do you have to be a genius to do that?
 

OilCanShotTupac

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Devizier said:
Suzuki is still a decent player, although he's fading fast. Wells is replacement-level right now.
 
One wonders if Gardner and Ellsbury's overlapping zones will cause a reduction in their defensive impact. I know this was brought up during the Ellsbury-Cameron days but that never really came to fruition. Obviously, it didn't seem to matter much for Ellsbury-Victorino, but Fenway's right field is sort of a unique case.
 
I think that assessment of both is way too kind.  I watched the Yankees a little in '13 and they're both toast.  Ichiro is no longer getting to balls that most RF can get to.  Obviously you can hide him a little in the New Toilet's RF, but he's not an asset out there anymore.  He's lost a half a step on the basepaths, so that little roll-my-wrists-over-for-a-Baltimore-chop-and-beat-out-a-single-cuz-I'm-really-fast trick that worked about 2000 times over the course of his career, well, not so much now. 
 
Wells is even worse.  He's just done.
 
They just have too many guys on the downslope of their careers who are way too expensive.  Adding Ellsbury at this price just makes one more.  He will have his moments, he may even have good-to-great years, but NFW is he worth that deal.
 

hferris

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amfox1 said:
 
 
Your command is my wish:
 
Rotation (42.40 AAV + FA) - Sabathia (24.40 AAV), Kuroda (assume re-signed at 16.00 AAV), Pineda (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV), Nova (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV) + FA
 
Bullpen (7.50 AAV + FA) - Robertson (arb3, assume 4.00 AAV), Phelps (min, 0.50 AAV), Kelley (arb2, assume 1.50 AAV), Warren (min, 0.50 AAV), Betances (min, 0.50 AAV), Claiborne (min, 0.50 AAV) + FA LHP
 
Lineup (130.87 AAV + FA) – Ellsbury (21.87 AAV), Jeter (17.00 AAV), Cano (assume re-signed at 25.00 AAV), Soriano (17.00 AAV), McCann (17.00 AAV), Teixeira (22.50 AAV), Gardner (arb3, assume 4.00 AAV), FA 3B, Suzuki (6.50 AAV) 
 
Bench (22.10 AAV) - Cervelli (arb1, assume 1.00 AAV), Ryan (2.50 AAV), Nunez (min, assume 0.60 AAV), Wells (18.0 AAV) 
 
This assumes Rodriguez is suspended for the entire 2014 season.
 
Total AAV is 202.87 plus the cost of three free agents (a solid #2/3 starter, a LOOGY and a 3B), plus 17.00 AAV in benefits/40 man roster, less 36.24 AAV the team is owed from other teams.  
 
That gives the Yankees approximately $6 million to spend and remain under the luxury tax (even after assuming Cano/Kuroda signings).
 
If Cano is not re-signed (which is my assumption with the Ellsbury signing), they could trade for Brandon Phillips to play 2B and still have some room to fill out their roster. 
 
Only $5M for Soriano and $3M for Wells count towards the cap according to all reports when they made the trades last year.
 

FinanceAdvice

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Well I never thought hed be back, especially with Bor ass as his agent.  I really do like Ells and what he brought to the game.  I, among many here, will never boo him when he returns to Fenway.  To the terms of the contract 7 at $153 million?! No way is he worth that much and I believe im being objective.  Also long term contracts never seem to work out.  I admire BC for staying with his plan.  So how do the Sox counter?  IMHO Id get Beltran (age and injuries do bother me) I feel hes a great clubhouse presence, he wants to win and would add considerable power in the lineup. Move Vic to CF.   Plus Id go hard  at Napoli. 
 

twibnotes

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Love it. Jacoby is seriously the old school, scouts love him kinda guy.

Also, I'm sick of people saying "Well, you can't blame the player, they went where the most money was." I call bullshit. What about loyalty and integrity? If I worked for Costco or something, and I made $60,000 a year as a department manager or whatever and I had good benefits and the culture was good yada yada yada and Sam's Club offered me 65 or 70 grand I wouldn't take it. There's some stuff you can't put a price on.


It's not even a fair analogy bc Costco's customers wouldn't be blindly rooting for you, buying your jersey, etc.

Of course, they wouldn't boo you either, so there's that.
 

JimBoSox9

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Love it. Jacoby is seriously the old school, scouts love him kinda guy.

Also, I'm sick of people saying "Well, you can't blame the player, they went where the most money was." I call bullshit. What about loyalty and integrity? If I worked for Costco or something, and I made $60,000 a year as a department manager or whatever and I had good benefits and the culture was good yada yada yada and Sam's Club offered me 65 or 70 grand I wouldn't take it. There's some stuff you can't put a price on.


I dunno if that's a fallacy, a straw man, a false dichotomy, or a false equivalence, but I call bullshit to your bullshit that there an employment decision in the world that you wouldn't change your mind on for $10 million.



Also, I dunno where to put this, but IF this means the Yankees are out on Cano, I 100% want the Sox to check on his market to see if it's fallen to the point where the gap between it and what they were willing to pay Ells is bridge-able. I promise I'm not crazy - plenty of ways to make work defensively.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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BosRedSox5 said:
 
Also, I'm sick of people saying "Well, you can't blame the player, they went where the most money was." I call bullshit. What about loyalty and integrity?
 
I can see raising the loyalty issue, though I think that raises the question of why that loyalty is supposed to be a one-way street--if loyalty should require Ellsbury to take a lower offer, why shouldn't it likewise require the Sox FO to make him a higher one? Why is it only management that's allowed to think about the bottom line?
 
But integrity? Seriously? In what conceivable way does Jacoby deciding to go for the higher-paying offer reflect on his integrity?
 
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