General Offseason Thread.
- Thread starter RorschachsMask
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From a durabilty standpoint he's barely played 60 games in the past four years. I don't think he can get into the shape they usually demand and maintain it.
Miami reporter says Herro is not involved in the deal.
View: https://twitter.com/Anthony_Chiang/status/1670139220688613376
As expected, the Heat is trying to get the Bradley Beal trade done without including Tyler Herro, according to league sources. Beal is entering the second season of a five-year, $251 million contract. He has a no-trade clause.
At a glance Beal & Booker is kind of redundant,, and there is not much space to fill the bench again. Durant seems to be in decline.
Beal is a cleaner fit in Miami on paper and it is worrying that it could be Spolestra's missing piece. Takes the scoring load off of Butler theoretically so he doesn't wear down as much in the next deep playoff run.
Beal is a cleaner fit in Miami on paper and it is worrying that it could be Spolestra's missing piece. Takes the scoring load off of Butler theoretically so he doesn't wear down as much in the next deep playoff run.
As noted above, Herro would likely not be a part of the deal. Likely, something like Lowry (1yr remaining), Robinson (2 yrs+$10mm ETO), #18 and future draft capital (swaps, etc)
Last year, he sat the last 11 games with a "knee" injury, all while WAS was tanking as hard as possible. The year before that he had wrist surgery, hardly a durability thing. And the two years prior to that the NBA season was only 72 games long
Beal makes too much sense with Miami, I'd be pretty surprised at this point if that doesn't happen. Question is whether Herro is part of the trade or not.
Expect deals before July 1st.
View: https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1670151114203725826
It should be noted that we are still operating under the 2017 CBA. 125% rule on outgoing and incoming salary of $19.6M+in a trade That changes to 110% for first or second apron teams starting on July 1
View: https://twitter.com/BobbyMarks42/status/1670151114203725826
It should be noted that we are still operating under the 2017 CBA. 125% rule on outgoing and incoming salary of $19.6M+in a trade That changes to 110% for first or second apron teams starting on July 1
Yes, although I don't think they can beat Miami's offers if the Heat put in future picks/swaps. Phoenix has nothing left to trade (maybe some swaps; I forget what they didn't put in the Durant deal).
Lowry has put this requirement to bed. Butler isn't exactly a regular season work horse either.
Exactly. The wrist injury he's recovered from and last year prior to being shutdown he was rushed back twice with hamstrings that I recall discussing bc it was likely medical negligence in rushing him back. The other times he's missed included a stretch due to a death in his family and a couple Covid illnesses. Plus as you said two of the four years were shortened seasons.
+1. Butler averaged 58 games over the last 4 years, Beal averaged 52 games over the last 4 years. If we stretch that out a few years, Beal has averaged 62 games over the last 6 years while Butler has averaged just 59 games over the last 6 years. I don't see any particular reason why "Heat Culture" would bother Beal more than others, especially considering that it doesn't seem to have anything to do with stars staying on the court.
If Miami loses out on Beal because they don't want to include Herro, that would seem like an unforced error. As a negotiating tactic, I buy it.
Beal will pick where he goes and WAS will get basically nothing of value back. Once they gave him that deal it was basically locked in that when he got moved it would be a glorified salary dump
Edit-forgot that the Suns CEO is the son of Beal's agent... Yeah he's going to PHX for a bag of garbage
Edit-forgot that the Suns CEO is the son of Beal's agent... Yeah he's going to PHX for a bag of garbage
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Cap-wise you probably need Lowry and Robinson in there if there’s no Herro. And that’s a bunch of bad money (though, arguably not as bad as Beal’s long-term commitment).
Miami could add in possibly-useful Highsmith, picks and then maybe Jovic?
I don’t expect a massive return for Beal, but also if I were Washington I wouldn’t take on a lot of bad money.
Miami could add in possibly-useful Highsmith, picks and then maybe Jovic?
I don’t expect a massive return for Beal, but also if I were Washington I wouldn’t take on a lot of bad money.
Lowry deal is fine 1 year 29.6 left. Best scenario for WAS would be convincing Oladipo to accept his player option then do Lowry, Dipo, Jovic
Lowry is essentially a trade exception; not the worst thing, but also not really an asset—or much of one. Though, his contract would allow them to redirect to someone to take a salary, which is of use. But the player isn’t at all a fit especially not for $30 mil.
I’d think there’s a bit more value Washington may aspire to than Jovic and (essentially) an exception but I generally agree with those noting that Beal has a ton of ability to push towards a direction and that the return won’t be big.
Maybe if you add a Future pick or two in you’re there….and also does depend on whether Ayton is available (I’m not sure on that, at least not for Beal)
I’d think there’s a bit more value Washington may aspire to than Jovic and (essentially) an exception but I generally agree with those noting that Beal has a ton of ability to push towards a direction and that the return won’t be big.
Maybe if you add a Future pick or two in you’re there….and also does depend on whether Ayton is available (I’m not sure on that, at least not for Beal)
Athletic describes this as the state of play currently:
https://theathletic.com/4619216/2023/06/17/bradley-beal-trade-possibilities-wizards-heat-suns/
Article notes Wiz asked for Herro and Miami is trying not to include him, so pretty much all consistent with other stories/speculation here…
https://theathletic.com/4619216/2023/06/17/bradley-beal-trade-possibilities-wizards-heat-suns/
Will his value go up or down as he ages, presumably getting worse but also closer to the end of his contract? It's an interesting question. If they think his value will go down, it might make more sense to ditch him sooner rather than later. I kind of can't believe they couldn't get Herro, so we'll see if it in fact takes nothing but contracts and a mediocre pick or two to land a guy that they signed to a super max less than 12 months ago.
I tend to think they’ll get a little more than initially reported, but the overall theory on the trade is to dump his salary—-useful now (where he’s like somewhat overpaid and doesn’t fit what is likely their new timeline) and likely very useful down the road (where there’s a real risk he’ll be massively overpaid)
It says multiple first round picks so who knows what that means. But MIA only owes their 2025 so they have 3 firsts they could trade (2023, 2027, 2029) and they could offer swaps too.
I mean it’s not a great haul but that contract is bad. And i love Beal but has probably the worst contact in the NBA right now.
Haynes is a Lillard mouthpiece, FWIW.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisBHaynes/status/1670535333140914178?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisBHaynes/status/1670535333140914178?s=20
What does Miami give up? Herro+salary and a lot of picks/swaps? Portland would then have to reroute Herro or send Simons somewhere, since I doubt that works together.
How much is Herro worth, actually? Guy suffered a significant injury and Miami arguably played better without him.
This is a really bad deal for Portland, and a hard one to sell to the fanbase. Unless you are banking on Mia going off a cliff in 2-3 years, the picks don't have a ton of value and Herro is not a good immediate return. Maybe there are three team deals out there? The media is acting like Portland should bend over backwards to help Miami here.
Watching GM's hold onto players past their optimal value window when the team isn't going anywhere is painful to watch. Makes you appreciate Ainge having the balls and the skill to sell it to Pierce and Garnett. I still have what-ifs about McHale, Bird and Parish.
Miami's future swaps and picks are mostly available. If Portland can snag the future of a team whose core is Butler+Dame, they should absolutely do it. It's not as much as the Durant haul, because there's no Bridges, but Lillard also isn't nearly as good as Durant, and is a much higher risk to completely fall off a cliff.
I think the bigger issue in a deal like this is that there is probably a limit on how much of its own future the Heat would be willing to mortgage.
What’s the Chris Paul market, if (as reported) he’s now at $25 mil for this year to make math work in the Beal deal?
Wizards presumably quite open to flipping him.
Clippers have lots of contracts to get there (Covington, Morris, Batum, and useful Powell) and Mann and picks as assets. So that’s likely the answer
Lakers…it’s messy. I guess possible if they use Beasley plus something (Bamba’s salary, Walker) but they have to manage Reaves and other stuff too. Seems less likely imo
Spurs or Rockets? Hard to see them giving an asset…though for Spurs a little interesting to set up Wemby. Don’t really see it.
Celtics? Boy, what’s a three way deal that gets Paul to Boston and Brogdon elsewhere with the assets to Wizards? Not sure Celts want to do it but I admit interesting. And non-trivial to find contender-ish team who would give an asset for Brogdon…plus, Celts trying to get bigger not smaller.
Knicks? Have some assets and contracts…but it’s an awfully small backcourt with Brunson. Not sure I see it.
who else? What’s missing / wrong in that outlook?
Wizards presumably quite open to flipping him.
Clippers have lots of contracts to get there (Covington, Morris, Batum, and useful Powell) and Mann and picks as assets. So that’s likely the answer
Lakers…it’s messy. I guess possible if they use Beasley plus something (Bamba’s salary, Walker) but they have to manage Reaves and other stuff too. Seems less likely imo
Spurs or Rockets? Hard to see them giving an asset…though for Spurs a little interesting to set up Wemby. Don’t really see it.
Celtics? Boy, what’s a three way deal that gets Paul to Boston and Brogdon elsewhere with the assets to Wizards? Not sure Celts want to do it but I admit interesting. And non-trivial to find contender-ish team who would give an asset for Brogdon…plus, Celts trying to get bigger not smaller.
Knicks? Have some assets and contracts…but it’s an awfully small backcourt with Brunson. Not sure I see it.
who else? What’s missing / wrong in that outlook?
Possible—I’m just guessing part of why Wizards took that package was ability to get some value from CP3.
“Fastest cap sheet clearing” is of course another possibility too
“Fastest cap sheet clearing” is of course another possibility too
By all means they should move Dame, just not for a suboptimal deal to get him to his preferred destination.
I'd be really surprised if Washington bought out Paul at this point.
They should at minimum be able to flip him for other worse player(s) on expiring contracts to pick up a small asset, or take on even worse players/contracts to pick up better assets.
Draymond is a free agent.
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1670826194848165889?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1670826194848165889?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Isn’t the bigger issue the new draft rules? Because with Butler, Bam, and Dame Miami would go through the second tax apron, which, theoretically, makes those picks end of the first round even if the Heat do fall off a cliff.
I was referring to them moving him 2 years ago when they could have gotten a package.
In fairness, Ainge himself probably did as well which is what made him pull the trigger when he did.
Bill Simmons is saying he heard from a source Zion won’t be a Pelican by Thursday.
Windhorst said on his podcast he expects a certain trade to come down Friday.
Windhorst said on his podcast he expects a certain trade to come down Friday.
Fair enough. Out of curiosity, who falls into that category now? Embiid? KAT? Randle? Trae? It's a narrow window within which to make that kind of move.
Well if they are insistent on keeping Dame and moving #3, then Zion does make a good bit of sense as he is easily the best player available from a pure upside POV. If it works and he is healthy, I don't think they are contenders, but they might be able to win a round in the postseason.
Most likely it blows up in their face, but if you are trading Scoot, then most likely it is going to be a disastrously bad trade regardless of who they get back.
I like Anonobi, and Siakiam, but neither of them moves the needle in Portland as much as a healthy Zion would
Real question is what do you have to give Charlotte to make them make the stupid move, and pick Miller over Scoot?
As I understand the rules, at the point when they kick in, they do so for the pick 7 years out, and then the next pick 7 years out the next year, and so on.
So if the Heat (for example) did an AllThePickz deal for Lillard this year, their pick 7 years out would be their pick 5 or 6 years out by the time the 2nd apron hit.
We already see this with the Durant trade: it doesn't matter what happens with the second apron going forward...all the picks the Nets got will be good if the Suns are bad in the next 6 years.
None of those guys are comps as they are all still young. It's the guy, usually a small guard, who is fighting all the data and sometimes injury history to check off all the boxes.
Kemba and Isaiah are two great examples as they always had to give max effort due to their size which places extra stress on the joints over time that resulted in degenerative injury issues that we know existed. Smalls like Lillard and Paul were pure talent guys who slowed the game down and didn't have those same injury histories in their early 30's. Then there are the fast twitch guards who never adapted their games once they lost first step like Iverson and RWB, despite how well he played this year, is a half step away from falling off a cliff.
There aren't a lot of guys out there who fit this category right now as most of todays better guards are in their early/mid 20's. One day Morant likely will but no time soon, keep an eye on Trae's lower body healthy as he approaches 30.
There's that Steph guy, who was still peak level last year, his age 34 season. The hope for him and Dame is that they'll age like Stockton and Nash, who were still basically peak level into their late 30s (Nash till about 37, Stockton till about 38). But yeah, guys like Isaiah, Isiah, and Kemba (among many others)) definitely give cause for concern for small guards in their 30s.
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Steph's a unicorn. If his game fell off to the point that he was nothing more than a spot-up shooter, he'd still be a valuable guy. Crazy fast release and great shooter brain mitigates his size. He's also more of a distributor than most of the "tiny shooting guard" types. Most of the "be careful of smurfs" concern is valid, because it's based on "what happens when that guy loses the first step/separation with age/injury?" Guys who use their athleticism but aren't as dependent on it can survive longer. Also guys who have the luck and/or work ethic to forestall injury and father time (mostly the luck, but some guys like Ray hung on longer due to maniacal focus on their body).
Interesting. Turns 32 in August. He must have some pretty good intel about team interest. Not sure I’d give up the $40M guaranteed but maybe he can get a 3-4 year deal that’s worth it.