Dolphins: Year Tua

Should Miami Trade for Deshaun Watson

  • Yes. Deshaun is a star. Take the known entity.

    Votes: 68 70.8%
  • No. Build around Tua and forge a stronger overall team.

    Votes: 28 29.2%

  • Total voters
    96
  • Poll closed .

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
Have a $100 free bet on DK’s to use.
With all the uncertainty this week around the league, there’s not a lot I like…
One of the things I feel best about is actually Parker…

So figured I’d ask here, if anyone feels strongly either way in either, or neither of these..

Parker’s o/u is 54.5 (-115)
Or I can go SGP
Parker over 39.5 yards
Under 49.5 at even money

edit* - can get Parker over 39.5 with Gesicki over 29.5 at -110

Pretty sure about the 40 for Parker (unless something happens to him), so it’s basically trying to figure out if there’s any way this game hits 50 points…the SGP seems pretty obvious, so guess that’s why I’m worried lol
 
Last edited:

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
40,667
Have a $100 free bet on DK’s to use.
With all the uncertainty this week around the league, there’s not a lot I like…
One of the things I feel best about is actually Parker…

So figured I’d ask here, if anyone feels strongly either way in either, or neither of these..

Parker’s o/u is 54.5 (-115)
Or I can go SGP
Parker over 39.5 yards
Under 49.5 at even money

edit* - can get Parker over 39.5 with Gesicki over 29.5 at -110

Pretty sure about the 40 for Parker (unless something happens to him), so it’s basically trying to figure out if there’s any way this game hits 50 points…the SGP seems pretty obvious, so guess that’s why I’m worried lol
Free bet so you should spice it up. I would do Parker/Gesicki and combine with a Wilson INT and some Dolphins sacks.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
Free bet so you should spice it up. I would do Parker/Gesicki and combine with a Wilson INT and some Dolphins sacks.
I actually wound up pulling the trigger on the Parker/Gesicki pairing…unfortunately didn’t give much time for responses, as I generally wanted to see if anyone had any insights, but I was pretty surprised 40 and 30 got me to near even money, and decided I didn’t want to come back later and have them be worse.

Not much spice, but did add Dolphins 1 sack that got it to +105.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Miami activates Holland ahead of tomorrow but will be without Lindsay and Waddle.

All told, not as bad as it looked at the start of the week. Waddle will be missed, but Miami should be able to get the job done without him.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,791
Dallas
Hey guys I’m just curious here but Waddle, Phillips, and Holland were 7th, 11th, and 25th on my personal board. Have they been as good as I thought they would be?
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Hey guys I’m just curious here but Waddle, Phillips, and Holland were 7th, 11th, and 25th on my personal board. Have they been as good as I thought they would be?
I would say yes, yes, and yes+.

I would say that Waddle has been as good as he looked at Alabama, and I think there’s still a lot of meat on the bone with regards to deeper routes if they can fix the protection. Future Pro Bowler, imo.

Phillips started slow, but has come in strong the last month or so. They took some stuff off of his plate in terms of dropping into coverage and playing OLB and are using him far more as a hand in the dirt pass rusher.

Holland has been better than I thought he was going to be. On paper, he was a hybrid nickel that hadn’t played safety since his freshman year. He has looked like a star since taking over for McCourty full time. He plays the pass well, but also blitzes well, and packs a surprising amount of thump because he hits with textbook form. I love Holland and he might end up having the best individual career out of the three. He feels like what Minkah was supposed to be in this defense.

Not hyperbole to say that those three guys have saved a bunch of jobs in Miami this year. The production they’ve gotten from this class is what they hoped they would get from last year’s class.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Dub.

Ugly, slow start to the game on both sides. Miami’s defense started to put the clamps on the Jets and the offense eventually followed suit.

Up and down game for Tua. Seemed to really right the ship after the first quarter but had the pick 6 to keep the Jets in the game. Duke Johnson with an unexpected MVP turn, running hard and running with some vision we aren’t used to seeing.

Defense won the game as they started really getting after Zach Wilson and controlled the game outside of the first quarter.

Christian Wilkins with the thiccsix and TD celebration(s) of the year.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
Considering they were coming off a bye, and we’re dealing with Covid issues, last week being a sort of “survive and advance”, was fine by me.
I just wanted them to get to this Monday night game with us having something to be excited about.

That said, really wish we knew Holland was healthy and going to be able to play.
I may be in the minority in this, but while all 3 of these games are challenging, I’d rank this Saints game as the one I’m least confident in.
Then again, the last time I didn’t feel great about the Dolphins chances was against the Ravens…so hopefully we get more of that on prime time.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Miami officially controls their own destiny with Buffalo winning and LA and Baltimore losing. If Miami wins out, they will make the playoffs.

Today went about as well as it possibly could have. They need to handle business tomorrow night versus a short handed Saints team.

I would expect the kitchen sink from Payton with a backup backup QB at home.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
I’ve refrained from taking a victory lap, mentally, already.
The same factors that made me worried about tomorrows game are still largely in play. That being the NO defense, Kamara, the NO crowd on a Monday Night in a meaningful game…

I can’t help but think Tua’s season will also wind up largely defined by what happens tomorrow night, at least amongst the general public, as it seems the prime time games largely skew public perception, as is.
If Tua sucks and they lose, I can already see the narrative shifting to the winning streak being against bum teams and proving nothing, but if he plays great against the team that just made Brady look like a bum and they win…I think he finally gets credit.

I really hope it’s the latter. I want nothing more for Tua and the team to make a statement tomorrow night.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
I’ve refrained from taking a victory lap, mentally, already.
The same factors that made me worried about tomorrows game are still largely in play. That being the NO defense, Kamara, the NO crowd on a Monday Night in a meaningful game…

I can’t help but think Tua’s season will also wind up largely defined by what happens tomorrow night, at least amongst the general public, as it seems the prime time games largely skew public perception, as is.
If Tua sucks and they lose, I can already see the narrative shifting to the winning streak being against bum teams and proving nothing, but if he plays great against the team that just made Brady look like a bum and they win…I think he finally gets credit.

I really hope it’s the latter. I want nothing more for Tua and the team to make a statement tomorrow night.
The goal posts seem to always be moving for Tua. I can see the narrative not shifting much even if Miami wins and Tua plays well because the Saints are on their third string QB and have a bunch of other guys on the Covid list.

If they beat the Titans, well they don’t have Derrick Henry and they lost to the Texans and Jets.

I feel like the only way the narrative shifts is if they run the table, beat NE, and make the playoffs, running off 9 straight wins. Even now, I don’t think he’s gotten proper credit for this winning streak and winning without Parker for most of it and without Waddle last week. We won’t mention Will Fuller, Rest In Peace.

People will be forced to give him some level of credit, even if it’s the defense doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
 
Last edited:

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Dub City. 7 in a row.

The defense continues to be lights out. Racking up sacks against a rookie isn’t too impressive, but they were relentless. They held NO without a third down conversion the entire game, which is the first time in Payton’s career that happened. 0-12.

Offense was grinding in the first half. Not a lot of production. The two minute drill to end the first half was an embarrassment. Tua seemed to get tired of checking everything down and forced that ball to Hollins when he had Waddle coming wide open.

Tua after a turnover or in the 4th quarter is the most powerful being in the known universe. The dude, for whatever reason, gets super locked in and they nearly always come back with a scoring drive. Would be cool if he could start the game like that. The bomb to Hollins was beautiful on both ends. Dime from Tua and Hollins with the impressive grab despite being interfered with. Please note during this play, that is Jesse Davis getting pancaked by a corner, for anyone unsure as to why Miami doesn’t air it out more. 50 air yards on that one.

View: https://twitter.com/miamidolphins/status/1475666611881320450?s=21


The line appeared to be making strides, but Jordan and Davenport gave them a dose of reality. The line is still the Achilles heel of the offense and still needs addressing in the offseason.

Winning 7 in a row is hard. Doesn’t matter who you’re playing. The players and coaches deserve a lot of credit for not giving up on the season. After back to back losses to Jacksonville and Atlanta, that was about as low as any point in the Flores tenure.

We will see who this team really is the next two weeks. Miami is currently the 7th seed and if they win the next two, they make it to the playoffs.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,746
In 2019, the Dolphins were 0-7 and finished 5-4, including wins over Buffalo (10-6) and New England (12-4) to end at 5-11 - not bad considering the start to their season.

In 2020, the Dolphins went 10-6.

In 2021, the Dolphins started 1-7 and are now 8-7 and knocking on the door of the playoffs.

Flores is very good at this and as much as I hate the Dolphins, I'm happy for him - it's really impressive what he's done.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
For all the shit the OC’s get, there was a heck of a lot of creativity in utilizing Waddle last night, and seemingly getting the ball in his hands whenever they wanted.

Dare I say, their gameplan was far more impressive than Payton. I’m still absolutely stunned that New Orleans came out and (more or less) attempted to run a standard offense with Book and arguably the worst receiver group in the league.
I can’t believe they didn’t just run the ball like 50 times with Kamara and Ingram…or use Kamara similar to how Miami used Waddle.

certainly wasn’t pretty at times…but we’re certainly at “a wins a win” point, and hopefully they can play a complete game vs the Titans and make that NE game truly meaningful.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
For all the shit the OC’s get, there was a heck of a lot of creativity in utilizing Waddle last night, and seemingly getting the ball in his hands whenever they wanted.

Dare I say, their gameplan was far more impressive than Payton. I’m still absolutely stunned that New Orleans came out and (more or less) attempted to run a standard offense with Book and arguably the worst receiver group in the league.
I can’t believe they didn’t just run the ball like 50 times with Kamara and Ingram…or use Kamara similar to how Miami used Waddle.

certainly wasn’t pretty at times…but we’re certainly at “a wins a win” point, and hopefully they can play a complete game vs the Titans and make that NE game truly meaningful.
Good point. Lining up Waddle in the backfield is something I’d like to see more of. Worst case, you’re getting Gesicki or someone else outside matched up on a LB.

Best case, you get Waddle matched up on a LB in space.

The orbit motion from Lindsay followed by the shovel to Waddle across the formation was beautiful. The entire defense followed Lindsay and Waddle basically walked into the end zone. Miami has consistently had one of the top red zone offenses this season.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Jerome Baker named AFC Defensive Player of the Month for December.

A little surprising, but the coaching staff has mostly shifted him to OLB and used him more as a rusher and he looks like Jerome Baker from last year.

They’ve been using Duke Riley and Roberts mostly at MLB, and also Brandon Jones as a box safety. That has freed Baker up to use that speed and blitzing ability and not take on so many big bodies inside. I think that’s what they envisioned when they acquired McKinney originally.

Good for Baker and good job by the coaches for adapting as the season went on.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,720
Hingham, MA
Huge game tomorrow, obviously. How's everyone "feeling"?
I think you match up decently with Tennessee. Both teams like to play a similar style. I expect a low scoring, close game that comes down to the last possession, maybe/probably a field goal to tie it or win it.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Huge game tomorrow, obviously. How's everyone "feeling"?
I feel like this is the harder of the next two matchups.

You have to be a little concerned about the Tannehill revenge game. He’s exactly the type of QB that is too dumb or too brave to throw the ball away and will probably stand in there and deliver shots over the top of the cover 0 blitzes while getting pummeled.

I would assume a low scoring game where Miami is content to get a lead and sit on it if possible. That seems to be their M.O. in these high leverage games. Try and win with the defense and special teams putting the offense in advantageous situations, and don’t try to do anything too heroic on offense.

I’ll go with 17-13 Miami.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
53,200
New York City
I think you match up decently with Tennessee. Both teams like to play a similar style. I expect a low scoring, close game that comes down to the last possession, maybe/probably a field goal to tie it or win it.
In their streak, Miami has beaten Houston, the Jets twice, the Saints with no QB, and Carolina with no QB and the Giants with no QB. And a banged up Ravens team. That is really a fortuitous schedule.

It's hard to know what Miami actually is and this week is going to be a great test. It's make or break.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,720
Hingham, MA
In their streak, Miami has beaten Houston, the Jets twice, the Saints with no QB, and Carolina with no QB and the Giants with no QB. And a banged up Ravens team. That is really a fortuitous schedule.

It's hard to know what Miami actually is and this week is going to be a great test. It's make or break.
Their streak is somewhat similar to the Pats streak, although I think the Pats competition was a bit better.

Ironically, both teams won 7 in a row heading into a road game at an AFC South playoff team, with the following week being a home game against a team they already defeated on the road. We saw what happened to the Pats - they lost both. Will be very interesting, and telling IMO, how Miami finishes this regular season. Not everything is a referendum on Flores and Tua, but these last two weeks feel pretty important for their future.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
ugly weather report for today…

MIA @ TEN -
Wet. What starts as a cold rain should mix in to a wet rain/snow mix later in the game. Winds are manageable, but the precip should make it a bit tougher for offenses to be firing on all cylinders, especially in the passing game.

This one was kind of a toss up in my kind as is, as I could see either offense struggling….now really have no idea what to expect…
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
ugly weather report for today…

MIA @ TEN -
Wet. What starts as a cold rain should mix in to a wet rain/snow mix later in the game. Winds are manageable, but the precip should make it a bit tougher for offenses to be firing on all cylinders, especially in the passing game.

This one was kind of a toss up in my kind as is, as I could see either offense struggling….now really have no idea what to expect…
Not only that but they played a bowl game in the grass, replaced a few big chunks of sod in the field and end zone, and then they got rained on and today will be a mess.

I would imagine this favors Tennessee. Miami’s best weapon is a speed guy and their running attack is poor at best. That being said, Miami’s offense does it’s best work in the short passing game.

Probably going to be a defensive slog. Which is pretty much exactly how both coaches would like it.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
If I’m less enthused now, it’s likely because my brain is revisiting that early training camp practice in the rain where Tua threw all those interceptions, and it seemed like part of the issue was he really struggled with the wet ball.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Tua has not been good enough today. Seemed to really struggle with the elements earlier in the game when it was raining heavier. Miami was on the short end of several officiating calls, but they shot themselves in the foot more times than the officials did.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Well, at least the 7 game streak made what was looking like an unwatchable season somewhat entertaining.

Miami now will be staring down all of the decisions the kicked down the road again this offseason. Tua had a chance to lock the door and throw away the key on Watson, and then he goes out and has his worst performance of the year in the most important game of the year. Weather certainly seemed to play a factor as his accuracy was uncharacteristically wild early in the game, had a ball slip out of his hand for a fumble, and had a muffed snap.

He also had some poor decisions, got away with several bad throws into coverage, and generally looked bad doing everything out there.

Miami is going to have the cap space to do almost anything they want in the offseason, including adding a veteran QB contract. Do they overhaul the line in free agency and draft another WR and RB and give Tua another shot?

IMO, Tua has shown with Waddle what he can do when guys get open quickly and he has a decent pocket to throw from. He needs another guy that can separate, a blindside tackle that isn’t a traffic cone, and an actual running game he can rely on, which makes the RPO and PA game that much more effective. The fact that Duke Johnson and Lindsay looked far better than Gaskin and Ahmed shouldn’t necessarily be applauded. It should be seen as an indictment that the FO vision for the position failed for two straight years while Jonathan Taylor is going to be getting some MVP votes this year.

Three years into the rebuild and I don’t know if Miami is significantly better off than they were before they blew it up. Flores > Gase, and the defense is great, but we’ve now missed the playoffs by a game (or maybe 2 this year) 2 years in a row.
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
21,544
A Scud Away from Hell
Would you consider trading Tua + 1st round pick + sweeteners for Wilson? I am not sure if Watson's legal issues will ever be resolved, nevermind the publicity backlash.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Would you consider trading Tua + 1st round pick + sweeteners for Wilson? I am not sure if Watson's legal issues will ever be resolved, nevermind the publicity backlash.
All things being equal, my preference would be Watson. He’s 7 years younger than Wilson and if you’re looking for a franchise QB, get the guy that can be the solution for longer.

Reports around the trade deadline suggested Watson was close to being able to settle all of his civil suits, but it sounded like Ross wanted everything resolved before they would execute a trade, but it wasn’t able to materialize. I would assume the offseason should bring more clarity in this regard.

If they’re going for a shorter term solution, I would probably prefer Aaron Rodgers if he becomes available. If he plays for 2-3 seasons, it gives you some time to draft another QB to groom behind him maybe in the late first or second round.

Wilson worries me on this team. Yes, he has played behind bad lines for a long time, but he seems like he doesn’t quite have that same Houdini magic left in him and Miami currently has about 4 holes in their line. Would it be fun to see him throw bombs to Parker and Waddle? For sure. I just don’t know if he’s able to succeed with the infrastructure currently in place in Miami whereas I think Rodgers and Watson probably could mask more of their issues.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,746
Would you consider trading Tua + 1st round pick + sweeteners for Wilson? I am not sure if Watson's legal issues will ever be resolved, nevermind the publicity backlash.
Wilson >>>> Tua, so with everything else they have, that would make them significantly better in an instant.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
Would you consider trading Tua + 1st round pick + sweeteners for Wilson? I am not sure if Watson's legal issues will ever be resolved, nevermind the publicity backlash.
Shows how damaged I am from the start of this season, I read this post as Watson…
it wasn’t until after reading multiple replies I realized the theoretical trade was Wilson.

In response to that…if I was running the team, I wouldn’t trade a thing for Wilson.
And don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t bet on Tua ever being nearly as good as Wilson. But if I’m making a trade that substantial, I better be absolutely sure…
And to me, a 33 year old undersized QB that’s been frequently beat up (that’s arguably caused him to underperform at time) the last couple years, and has exhibited some odd behavior (is he a problem, or just situation, I don’t know?) just isn’t it.

From a pure talent standpoint, I think you could make the argument Watson would be that guy, but I wouldn’t deal for him, for all the reasons already discussed ad nausea.

Im still at the same place I was last year. Roll with Tua and build the team around him.
Emphasis on building the team, as I don’t think they are necessarily a QB away. So give Tua the chance and if he’s still treading water (or worse) you’ll hopefully have a contending team you can add a QB too for 2023.
I would however make sure there’s a better backup option than Jacoby and/or use a kid round pick at QB…have some internal options in place in case of injury or if Tua is a disaster, so next year is not a waste.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,746
And don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t bet on Tua ever being nearly as good as Wilson. But if I’m making a trade that substantial, I better be absolutely sure…
And to me, a 33 year old undersized QB that’s been frequently beat up (that’s arguably caused him to underperform at time) the last couple years, and has exhibited some odd behavior (is he a problem, or just situation, I don’t know?) just isn’t it.
????

Last year he played 16 games (just like he had every other season of his entire career), went 12-4, and put up this passing line:

384-558 (68.8%), 4,212 yds, 40 td, 13 int, 105.1 rating, plus 513 rush yds and 2 rush td

I mean...last year Russell Wilson was nothing short of awesome.

This year is the only year he's had any issues.
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
21,544
A Scud Away from Hell
I had huge doubts about Stafford but even if he's not a true S-tier QB, he can be a difference maker.

I'm thinking Wilson can be the same for Miami. I'll tell you this, as a Pats fan I'd LOVE it if the Phins stayed put and rolled with Tua instead of trading for someone like Wilson.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,746
I had huge doubts about Stafford but even if he's not a true S-tier QB, he can be a difference maker.

I'm thinking Wilson can be the same for Miami. I'll tell you this, as a Pats fan I'd LOVE it if the Phins stayed put and rolled with Tua instead of trading for someone like Wilson.
Yes. This Miami roster with Russell Wilson at QB instead of Tua is a fantastic, imposing team.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
????

Last year he played 16 games (just like he had every other season of his entire career), went 12-4, and put up this passing line:

384-558 (68.8%), 4,212 yds, 40 td, 13 int, 105.1 rating, plus 513 rush yds and 2 rush td

I mean...last year Russell Wilson was nothing short of awesome.

This year is the only year he's had any issues.
i was wrong, not sure why I thought he was banged up and played poorly last year.
I guess it’s just personal preference then…and I’m not a huge Wilson fan.
Guessing part of that is also related to the fact that anytime I read or hear Seahawks fans access Wilson, there’s a frustration with him that doesn’t correlate with the statistics.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
24,150
i was wrong, not sure why I thought he was banged up and played poorly last year.
I guess it’s just personal preference then…and I’m not a huge Wilson fan.
Guessing part of that is also related to the fact that anytime I read or hear Seahawks fans access Wilson, there’s a frustration with him that doesn’t correlate with the statistics.

Wilson started red hot and the Hawks faded down the stretch.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
12,540
IMO, Tua has shown with Waddle what he can do when guys get open quickly and he has a decent pocket to throw from. He needs another guy that can separate, a blindside tackle that isn’t a traffic cone, and an actual running game he can rely on, which makes the RPO and PA game that much more effective. The fact that Duke Johnson and Lindsay looked far better than Gaskin and Ahmed shouldn’t necessarily be applauded. It should be seen as an indictment that the FO vision for the position failed for two straight years while Jonathan Taylor is going to be getting some MVP votes this year.
The problem with all this is that you're going to have to spend a ton of money to make Tua look like a good QB.

Based on your theory above, if he needs Waddle (a potential #1 WR), another top end WR, Mike Gesicki, "an actual running game", and top talent on the offensive line...well, yeah. Give all that to just about any NFL QB and they'll produce. And I know your intent wasn't to say he needs a top flight offense to succeed. But the fact you'd have to build an offense that deep to feel comfortable with Tua goes a long way to informing how much faith you may actually have in him.

We all know this, but sometimes we get lost in the weeds when it comes to our own teams. Having a medicore QB makes it REALLY hard to build a SB winner. Because, like you alluded to above, if you're going to have to spend 60% of your cap to sign top talent around him on offense, its going to start impacting other parts of your roster (whats up, defense). And if the team does build a top flight offense around Tua, they'll be forced to resign him unless a QB falls into their laps. That means in two years you're going to have to pay $30-35M a year to him, further tightening the purse strings on the roster.

So, if you're going to need to pay for a beefed up O line, a second top end WR, a new contract for Gesicki, and good RB's in order to put together a top 10 offense, you've basically handcuffed yourself to a 2-year window. Because after that, you're going to have to pay all the young guys you drafted. And you're strength - Jones/Howard lead secondary - are going to be expensive 30 something year olds. And you'll now be paying for an expensive mediocre QB that needs a lot of the salary cap dumped into the offense in order to not look like shit.

In other words, if I was a Dolphins fan, I'd be just as interested in getting a new QB for the future now as I was at the start of the season. With the pieces the Dolphins had to play with, walking out with a medicore QB where they need to overspend on offense to keep him competitive is a complete non-starter for me. He doesn't appear to be the kind of QB you can win on a rookie contract with. So cut bait and find an actual winner.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
The problem with all this is that you're going to have to spend a ton of money to make Tua look like a good QB.

Based on your theory above, if he needs Waddle (a potential #1 WR), another top end WR, Mike Gesicki, "an actual running game", and top talent on the offensive line...well, yeah. Give all that to just about any NFL QB and they'll produce. And I know your intent wasn't to say he needs a top flight offense to succeed. But the fact you'd have to build an offense that deep to feel comfortable with Tua goes a long way to informing how much faith you may actually have in him.

We all know this, but sometimes we get lost in the weeds when it comes to our own teams. Having a medicore QB makes it REALLY hard to build a SB winner. Because, like you alluded to above, if you're going to have to spend 60% of your cap to sign top talent around him on offense, its going to start impacting other parts of your roster (whats up, defense). And if the team does build a top flight offense around Tua, they'll be forced to resign him unless a QB falls into their laps. That means in two years you're going to have to pay $30-35M a year to him, further tightening the purse strings on the roster.

So, if you're going to need to pay for a beefed up O line, a second top end WR, a new contract for Gesicki, and good RB's in order to put together a top 10 offense, you've basically handcuffed yourself to a 2-year window. Because after that, you're going to have to pay all the young guys you drafted. And you're strength - Jones/Howard lead secondary - are going to be expensive 30 something year olds. And you'll now be paying for an expensive mediocre QB that needs a lot of the salary cap dumped into the offense in order to not look like shit.

In other words, if I was a Dolphins fan, I'd be just as interested in getting a new QB for the future now as I was at the start of the season. With the pieces the Dolphins had to play with, walking out with a medicore QB where they need to overspend on offense to keep him competitive is a complete non-starter for me. He doesn't appear to be the kind of QB you can win on a rookie contract with. So cut bait and find an actual winner.
I suppose I’m more open to a Watson/Wilson/Rodgers move than I was at the start of the season now that we’ve seen a larger sample size of Tua.

Bottom line is I look back on this season and I wonder, “is Miami a playoff team this year with Deshaun Watson?” I’m pretty sure the answer is yes, assuming they still have the 2021 draft class.

The roster would be different if they traded for Watson this year, but I think this recent draft class has better positioned them to make a move this offseason.

You fork over the 2022 first rounder and the two 2023 first rounders, some other filler, and you’ve got yourself a franchise QB with the rest of the core still in tact.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Not much to play for in this one besides pride. If Miami can pull off the win, they’ll have gone 4-2 in the division, sweeping NE and the NYJ and getting swept by Buffalo.

Mostly will be watching to see if the team is still playing hard and still trying to win despite the gut punch last week. Would obviously like to see Tua bounce back and end his season on a high note after last week’s outing as well.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,720
Hingham, MA
Not much to play for in this one besides pride. If Miami can pull off the win, they’ll have gone 4-2 in the division, sweeping NE and the NYJ and getting swept by Buffalo.

Mostly will be watching to see if the team is still playing hard and still trying to win despite the gut punch last week. Would obviously like to see Tua bounce back and end his season on a high note after last week’s outing as well.
Will be interesting to see how hard they play. In past years when they have played the Pats late, they've either already been eliminated and had the chance to play spoiler (e.g., 2019), or were still alive (e.g., 2018). This year they can't really "spoil" anything for the Pats, and their elimination is more fresh. So I'm also curious to see just how motivated they are.

Tua is also 2-0 against BB.

List of QBs who have gone 3-0 to start against BB:
Elway
Plummer
Brees
Testaverde
Fiedler

Interesting list.
 

TomTerrific

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,137
Wayland, MA
Will be interesting to see how hard they play. In past years when they have played the Pats late, they've either already been eliminated and had the chance to play spoiler (e.g., 2019), or were still alive (e.g., 2018). This year they can't really "spoil" anything for the Pats, and their elimination is more fresh. So I'm also curious to see just how motivated they are.

Tua is also 2-0 against BB.

List of QBs who have gone 3-0 to start against BB:
Elway
Plummer
Brees
Testaverde
Fiedler

Interesting list.
Man, I had forgotten how good Plummer was for a while. That's an impressive list--Fiedler is the only oddball.

I went to 3 Pats games in the 2004-2005 season. The first Thursday night game when they beat the Colts on a Mike Vanderjagt shank, the SB in Jacksonville against Philly, and the game in Oct where Miami visited us. That last game featured the kicker (Mare?) being injured in warmups to be replaced by one Wes Welker, Fiedler being injured near the end of the game to be replaced by AJ Feeley, and Feeley himself, I believe, being injured on Miami's last offensive play of the game (not certain of this, but that's my memory).

Anyway, back to Fiedler. I just remember thinking, when he was injured, that that was probably the only good thing that happened for Miami that day.

Of course, Miami went on to upset us 29-28 in late December down in Miami when Brady melted down in the 4Q, and threw probably the most inadvisable pass of his career for a pick that sealed it. Possibly the most un-Brady-like performance I've ever seen.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
29,720
Hingham, MA
Man, I had forgotten how good Plummer was for a while. That's an impressive list--Fiedler is the only oddball.

I went to 3 Pats games in the 2004-2005 season. The first Thursday night game when they beat the Colts on a Mike Vanderjagt shank, the SB in Jacksonville against Philly, and the game in Oct where Miami visited us. That last game featured the kicker (Mare?) being injured in warmups to be replaced by one Wes Welker, Fiedler being injured near the end of the game to be replaced by AJ Feeley, and Feeley himself, I believe, being injured on Miami's last offensive play of the game (not certain of this, but that's my memory).

Anyway, back to Fiedler. I just remember thinking, when he was injured, that that was probably the only good thing that happened for Miami that day.

Of course, Miami went on to upset us 29-28 in late December down in Miami when Brady melted down in the 4Q, and threw probably the most inadvisable pass of his career for a pick that sealed it. Possibly the most un-Brady-like performance I've ever seen.
Pats blew a late 11 point lead that game. They had an 8 play, 5 minute drive from the 9 minute mark of the 4th to the 4 minute mark, scored a TD to go up 28-17, and that should have been that against a 2-11 team. Then Miami scored, Brady pick, Miami score, Brady pick, ballgame.

Welker had a 71 yard punt return that game.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
I’m not as bullish on this matchup as I’d previously been. Along the lines of what @tims4wins wss saying, it’s hard to expect much from a team that had their win streak ended, in a convincing fashion, and their season goals ruined, just a week ago.
I wish I had concrete numbers to confirm teams records after such situations, but it certainly seems like the type of spot where I’d be betting against any team not named Miami.

Now, if Miami comes out on fire and finds a way to win this game, I’ll be super impressed and it will say a lot for everyone in that locker room and facility.
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Back to back winning seasons, a clean sweep of the Pats, 4-2 vs the division.

Tua did enough. Made some decisive plays with his feet that we haven’t seen enough of. Waddle gets the rookie reception record.

This win almost certainly means Flores is coming back. There were some rumblings pre game that if they laid an egg, Miami might be jumping on the Harbaugh express for old time’s sake.

As for Tua, I imagine we won’t know for certain until Deshaun Watson is either traded to Miami or another team. Nice game from him to end the season on a positive note, and the team in general.
 

rymflaherty

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2010
3,293
Norfolk
Guess I should have remained bullish.

The Dolphins beat average to awful teams who have mediocre to poor QB’s and it’s why I expected them to sweep NE this year.
So, mission accomplished, I guess…it would feel better if Tua wasn’t so mediocre to poor himself. I may have to rethink my, roll with him regardless, stance.

And fuck me…As I’m typing I just heard that the 49ers won, I thought the Rams had it wrapped up…well, there goes my biggest positive of the day. I thought they wound up matching the niners record, improbably. Oh well…
 

sodenj5

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,340
CT
Makes those early season loses hurt even more though, especially the Jaguars game.
Jags game might sting the worst. That slant with like three seconds and a timeout was insane.

Bottom line is they weren’t good enough.

Biggest positives are the 2021 draft class seems like a home run. They need major reinforcements on the O Line, another dependable WR, and another RB, although Duke Johnson deserves to come back in some capacity.