Dolphins: Year Tua

Should Miami Trade for Deshaun Watson

  • Yes. Deshaun is a star. Take the known entity.

    Votes: 68 70.8%
  • No. Build around Tua and forge a stronger overall team.

    Votes: 28 29.2%

  • Total voters
    96
  • Poll closed .

sodenj5

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Figured I would start a new thread since the Deshaun Watson stuff is starting to pick up steam.

To recap, it appears that Deshaun Watson is going to force his way out of Houston. Miami is uniquely positioned to acquire Watson, if they are interested. Tua would likely go to Houston along with multiple high value draft picks.

The question simply becomes do you take Watson and essentially dump him on last year’s roster and move forward with that? Or do you bank on Tua improving and maximizing that third overall pick and surround him with talent?

Miami will be able to spin the trade should one happen because players like Deshaun Watson should never be available to any team.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Figured I would start a new thread since the Deshaun Watson stuff is starting to pick up steam.

To recap, it appears that Deshaun Watson is going to force his way out of Houston. Miami is uniquely positioned to acquire Watson, if they are interested. Tua would likely go to Houston along with multiple high value draft picks.

The question simply becomes do you take Watson and essentially dump him on last year’s roster and move forward with that? Or do you bank on Tua improving and maximizing that third overall pick and surround him with talent?

Miami will be able to spin the trade should one happen because players like Deshaun Watson should never be available to any team.
If they can get him without surrendering the 3rd pick this year. Abso-fucking-lutely. Give him the stud WR that he was missing this year in Houston (trust your people to decide between Smith and Chase).
 

BaseballJones

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If Miami gets Deshaun, they're going to be a wrecking machine for a long time. Excellent coach, lots fo talent...all they're missing is the great QB. Watson would obviously provide that.
 

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If Miami can do it, they should. Maybe Tua can be great, but Deshaun already is.

Buffalo looks like they could be really solid at the top of the division for a few years. I think Miami is going to need that quality of QB play to move past them. Not sure Tua can provide that anytime soon, if ever.
 

vegassoxfan

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Not sure Watson would be a fit under the head coach in Miami, given how he held that team together last season after their terrible start, and how they made a huge step forward this year, and basically Flores gave the team to Tua, long before I thought he would. I believe he will stay loyal to what he has and surround him with more play makers
 

rymflaherty

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I’m still a no in a broad sense.
I’d certainly listen to Houston and it’s worth entertaining the idea. I would only think about pulling the trigger though if it’s on Miami’s terms. It’s Houston’s shit-show, make them own it.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think as with all trades it's about how much you have to give up.

That said, Watson is a better QB now than Tua likely ever will be. He was a higher upside prospect and he's hit that upside.

If you could get him for Tua, 3 and not more than 2 more 1sts (or equivalents) you have to do it. He's a top 5 QB, you're in a fairly weak division, you have a solid roster.
 

sodenj5

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I think as with all trades it's about how much you have to give up.

That said, Watson is a better QB now than Tua likely ever will be. He was a higher upside prospect and he's hit that upside.

If you could get him for Tua, 3 and not more than 2 more 1sts (or equivalents) you have to do it. He's a top 5 QB, you're in a fairly weak division, you have a solid roster.
If you can do it while retaining the third overall pick, giving up Tua, 18, maybe a 2nd and a 1 next season, then you trade down and recoup some of that lost draft capital, it becomes harder to say no to.

You give up 3 and 18 or 3 and next year’s 1 as well as some 2s, it becomes a bit less palatable because you’re dumping Watson onto an offense that is markedly worse than what he had in Houston.

I would say I remain rooted pretty firmly in the keep Tua and his cost controlled contract, turn the 3 into a top 10 pick and grab some extra capital in round 2 or a 1 next year, and build him an arsenal.

Patrick Mahomes has Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards Helaire, and Le’Veon Bell. Mahomes might absolutely be a generational talent at QB, but he’s also paired with an absolute embarrassment of riches to compliment him.

My point being the only thing we really learned about Tua last season is that he can’t consistently put the team on his back and win games single handedly as a rookie with sub-par weapons.
 

rymflaherty

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I think the key to compensation (and what we don’t know) is how many teams Watson would be willing to go to.
For instance - if Watson would like to play for the Jets, I see it turning into a bidding war that I’d personally walk away from.
If it turns out Miami is interested and Watson becomes headstrong and also decides that’s where he wants to play...then things get interesting. If that falls into your lap, then I can see why you don’t walk away. As Houston seems like they are on the verge of mucking this up enough, and doing so in public, where bringing Watson back is no longer an option. And not that you get him for nothing, but at that point Miami has leverage and would hopefully acquire at a more reasonable cost.

Edit *admittedly I am likely undervaluing what an open market for Watson looks like, or at least that’s what it seems like when most articles I read place 5 first round picks as a starting point. Creating a more palatable scenario may simply be wish-casting to at least entertain the idea, because I don’t see why you’d even consider if it will take what most major outlets are predicting.
 
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sodenj5

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I think the key to compensation (and what we don’t know) is how many teams Watson would be willing to go to.
For instance - if Watson would like to play for the Jets, I see it turning into a bidding war that I’d personally walk away from.
If it turns out Miami is interested and Watson becomes headstrong and also decides that’s where he wants to play...then things get interesting. If that falls into your lap, then I can see why you don’t walk away. As Houston seems like they are on the verge of mucking this up enough, and doing so in public, where bringing Watson back is no longer an option. And not that you get him for nothing, but at that point Miami has leverage and would hopefully acquire at a more reasonable cost.

Edit *admittedly I am likely undervaluing what an open market for Watson looks like, or at least that’s what it seems like when most articles I read place 5 first round picks as a starting point. Creating a more palatable scenario may simply be wish-casting to at least entertain the idea, because I don’t see why you’d even consider if it will take what most major outlets are predicting.
The “problem” is its extraordinarily rare that a QB, or any player of Watson’s caliber, becomes available. Miami traded Tunsil for two firsts and a second. There’s no way in hell Houston can get anything less than that. I think at least 3 firsts is the starting point.

If the Jets are willing to cough up the 2nd pick and go all in with multiple firsts, I say hats off to them. They have a worse roster than Miami and would be punting years of draft capital and would be no better than Houston is right now.

Miami makes sense on paper because you can argue Watson makes them a playoff team last season, but in reality, Miami overachieved across the board last season, and their roster talent is far closer to a 7-8 win team than a 10-11 win team.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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What’s Tua worth? A first rd pick for sure. A top 10 pick? I think so. I wouldn’t be surprised if ATL liked Tua better than any QB they could get at #4. So...

Trade Tua, #18, Hou’s 2d rounder back for this year, and MIA’s 2d rounder next year. Still leaves Miami with an impact player at #3. And heck, if HOU didn’t want that but would take ATL’s #4 instead of Tua, MIA could try to make it a 3-way deal.
 

Zososoxfan

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What’s Tua worth? A first rd pick for sure. A top 10 pick? I think so. I wouldn’t be surprised if ATL liked Tua better than any QB they could get at #4. So...

Trade Tua, #18, Hou’s 2d rounder back for this year, and MIA’s 2d rounder next year. Still leaves Miami with an impact player at #3. And heck, if HOU didn’t want that but would take ATL’s #4 instead of Tua, MIA could try to make it a 3-way deal.
I think this is right, except that Miami would have to include next year's 1st to make it work, or maybe even 1st AND 2nd. The other option would be to include #50 this year. But I think Miami would want to spread out the draft capital over at least 2 years:

Tua
2021 - #18
2021 - #36
2022 - 1st

(maybe) 2022 - 2nd

That's a damn good haul for Watson, and a steep price to pay for Miami, but one I think they should take. Could also try and make that 2nd rounder 2023 instead of '22.
 

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If I were Miami, I would offer #3, and #36 this year, plus 2022 1st and 2023 2nd.
They will still be able to add a nice piece at #18 this year plus they'll have a decent amount of cap space to add someone else.
Then in a separate trade, look to trade Tua, for whoever gets left out of this year's QB draft, to recoup a 2022 1st and a 3rd in 2023.
 

swiftaw

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I think I said this in a previous thread. Miami is not an elite quarterback away from winning the Super Bowl. If they were, I would say trade whatever you need for Watson. However, their offense is still missing a bunch of pieces and if they trade all their picks for Watson those pieces will still be missing. The only way I'd trade for Watson is if you can keep enough picks to get other talent. In particular they can't give up the #3 pick.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think I said this in a previous thread. Miami is not an elite quarterback away from winning the Super Bowl. If they were, I would say trade whatever you need for Watson. However, their offense is still missing a bunch of pieces and if they trade all their picks for Watson those pieces will still be missing. The only way I'd trade for Watson is if you can keep enough picks to get other talent. In particular they can't give up the #3 pick.
See I think this is crazy. You need an elite QB to be a Superbowl contender unless you have a good QB on a cheap deal and a lot of elite talent elsewhere. The more talent you have at QB, the less you need elsewhere to be a contender.

Also... Watson is on a 5 year contract.

If losing Tua and some firsts prevents you from building a contender in a 5+ year window around an elite QB, well you were never going to build a contender anyway in all likelihood. You just aren't making the type of mid to late draft picks and FA signings it takes.

Trading a bunch of picks for Watson means you have by far the most important issue in the league solved for 5 years.

One only needs to look at the Patriots' sustained success to see that you can miss on an awful lot of 1st round picks, and at times have certain weak position groups and not have any issues building a contender, so long as you have a top QB.
 

sodenj5

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See I think this is crazy. You need an elite QB to be a Superbowl contender unless you have a good QB on a cheap deal and a lot of elite talent elsewhere. The more talent you have at QB, the less you need elsewhere to be a contender.

Also... Watson is on a 5 year contract.

If losing Tua and some firsts prevents you from building a contender in a 5+ year window around an elite QB, well you were never going to build a contender anyway in all likelihood. You just aren't making the type of mid to late draft picks and FA signings it takes.

Trading a bunch of picks for Watson means you have by far the most important issue in the league solved for 5 years.

One only needs to look at the Patriots' sustained success to see that you can miss on an awful lot of 1st round picks, and at times have certain weak position groups and not have any issues building a contender, so long as you have a top QB.
The factor missing in this discussion is Miami drafted a guy last year that was one of the most prolific passers in college history with a top 5 pick. Will he ever be Deshaun Watson? Maybe not, but I would argue his ceiling is as high.

If Miami still had Jay Cutler or Fitz and no Tua, I would 100% agree they should throw the kitchen sink at Watson. Tua’s timeline matches Miami’s timeline perfectly. If he’s better in 2021 but still not an MVP candidate, that’s ok because Miami likely makes the playoffs with an improved offensive roster and better play from Tua in 2021.

Then you’re able to go all in and make the big push for the last 3 years of Tua’s deal. Tua should be better in year 3 than year 2 and the entire roster should be significantly better top to bottom.

You throw all of that out the window if you trade for Watson. You’re making the declaration that Miami is ready to win a Super Bowl right now, when the holes on the roster suggest they clearly are not.
 

Cellar-Door

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The factor missing in this discussion is Miami drafted a guy last year that was one of the most prolific passers in college history with a top 5 pick. Will he ever be Deshaun Watson? Maybe not, but I would argue his ceiling is as high.

If Miami still had Jay Cutler or Fitz and no Tua, I would 100% agree they should throw the kitchen sink at Watson. Tua’s timeline matches Miami’s timeline perfectly. If he’s better in 2021 but still not an MVP candidate, that’s ok because Miami likely makes the playoffs with an improved offensive roster and better play from Tua in 2021.

Then you’re able to go all in and make the big push for the last 3 years of Tua’s deal. Tua should be better in year 3 than year 2 and the entire roster should be significantly better top to bottom.

You throw all of that out the window if you trade for Watson. You’re making the declaration that Miami is ready to win a Super Bowl right now, when the holes on the roster suggest they clearly are not.
To me this is a classic case of overvaluing the unknown, and undervaluing elite QBs. Tua may have a high ceiling, but his ceiling if he reaches it isn't even Watson now, and his floor and average expected outcome are much lower. With Watson, you're a playoff team next year, and you're in the mix every year for the next 5 at least (probably more since he likely restructures and extends after 2023).

I think people are drastically underrating how easy it is to build around an elite QB (HOU had to do a TON of things horribly and have bad luck not to be a playoff team this year), and drastically Overrating the likelihood the Dolphins can build a much better roster with 3 1sts and a worse QB.

The Dolphins won 10 games with below average to bad QB play, give them a top 5 or so QB and they were a contender easily. You give a good defense an elite QB, and you can get away with a lot at the skill positions.

Edit- to build this out a little more. An elite QB gives you a shot every year, when other spots don't work out, you can swap them out pretty easily, an elite QB also elevates less talented WRs, TEs, RBs, and your ability to score lets you do more things on defense, and be more aggressive. A team CAN win a SB without a top QB, but usually it's a perfect storm, and you don't stay a contender for long. Elite QBs extend your window for the entirety of their time.
Looking at Miami... what if Tua is Jared Goff? Not even a complete failure, but just bad enough that you can't really win a title once he gets paid. Then all your roster building is wasted because you can't sign an elite QB, and you have to hope to draft one and develop him before the rest of the roster you built prices out.
 
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sodenj5

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To me this is a classic case of overvaluing the unknown, and undervaluing elite QBs. Tua may have a high ceiling, but his ceiling if he reaches it isn't even Watson now, and his floor and average expected outcome are much lower. With Watson, you're a playoff team next year, and you're in the mix every year for the next 5 at least (probably more since he likely restructures and extends after 2023).

I think people are drastically underrating how easy it is to build around an elite QB (HOU had to do a TON of things horribly and have bad luck not to be a playoff team this year), and drastically Overrating the likelihood the Dolphins can build a much better roster with 3 1sts and a worse QB.

The Dolphins won 10 games with below average to bad QB play, give them a top 5 or so QB and they were a contender easily. You give a good defense an elite QB, and you can get away with a lot at the skill positions.
I don’t see Miami’s outcome significantly different in 2021 with or without Watson. I think Miami is a playoff team with Watson or Tua and a revamped offense.

Beyond that I think you’ll see diminishing returns on a Watson capped team vs the ability to improve the roster with Tua and a bunch of potentially good, cheap, young players.
 

rymflaherty

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I was rather surprised when I saw that Smith was going to be attending.

Am I being a tin foil hat homer If my logic leads me to the strong possibility that Smith’s decision to attend is primarily due to him wanting to be selected 3rd...wanting whatever extra money that may mean, wanting to play with Flores, in Miami, and with Tua again?
 

sodenj5

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I was rather surprised when I saw that Smith was going to be attending.

Am I being a tin foil hat homer If my logic leads me to the strong possibility that Smith’s decision to attend is primarily due to him wanting to be selected 3rd...wanting whatever extra money that may mean, wanting to play with Flores, in Miami, and with Tua again?
They said that because he had surgery on the finger that he dislocated in the championship game, he won’t be participating in drills or on field stuff.

So he’s essentially going there for a week long interview with Flores and staff. All teams can interview him at the Senior Bowl, but Miami will be hands on and can run him through specific things they want to see throughout the week. Smart move by him because his personality is probably going to mesh well with Flores and there may not be a combine this year.

Same likely applies to Najee. Najee may or may not participate in on field stuff, but Miami will be able to be hands on with him throughout the week.

One of the reasons Miami drafted Noah Igbinoghene so high last year is because Flores ran Auburn’s defensive players through a defensive install at their pro day and came away highly impressed with Igbinoghene’s performance in the meeting.

So yes, it may be wish-casting about Smith and Harris, but it appears Flores puts at least some weight into these meetings and interviews.
 

rymflaherty

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I’m not even sure how I feel about Smith, which is odd, since receiver is one of the positions I’m most knowledgeable about, so I’m usually pretty critical or opinated.

I guess I just didn’t watch much college football and when I did watch Bama, it seemed like the majority of big plays I saw Smith make involved him making catches downfield with no one near him. It seemed downright bizarre at times and I honestly didn’t know what to make of it.
I’ll have to look for his highlights and tape that shows his routes, because O’d be legitimately curious to watch and see how much was his talent and how much was scheme...because the numbers were so insane, he must have been doing some things that were special.

I’m currently of the mindset that as long as they get Smith, Chase or Sewell I’m happy...those to be the consensus stud offensive players (non QB division ) and it seems like a huge windfall to be able to add one of them after the season that they had.
They obviously will be able to get one of them at #3 but if they entertain a trade, hopefully it doesn’t take them beyond that group.
I have noticed Pitts’ name amongst that group though in some places, so maybe he belongs amongst those 3 as well?
 

sodenj5

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I’m not even sure how I feel about Smith, which is odd, since receiver is one of the positions I’m most knowledgeable about, so I’m usually pretty critical or opinated.

I guess I just didn’t watch much college football and when I did watch Bama, it seemed like the majority of big plays I saw Smith make involved him making catches downfield with no one near him. It seemed downright bizarre at times and I honestly didn’t know what to make of it.
I’ll have to look for his highlights and tape that shows his routes, because O’d be legitimately curious to watch and see how much was his talent and how much was scheme...because the numbers were so insane, he must have been doing some things that were special.

I’m currently of the mindset that as long as they get Smith, Chase or Sewell I’m happy...those to be the consensus stud offensive players (non QB division ) and it seems like a huge windfall to be able to add one of them after the season that they had.
They obviously will be able to get one of them at #3 but if they entertain a trade, hopefully it doesn’t take them beyond that group.
I have noticed Pitts’ name amongst that group though in some places, so maybe he belongs amongst those 3 as well?
Smith is a dude it seems like a lot of people have struggled to evaluate. He isn’t big. He isn’t super fast. But the dude just gets open and makes plays.

Miami truly needs someone that can work the short to intermediate parts of the field and actually make plays with ball in their hands.

Pitts is definitely an elite TE prospect. More WR/slot than TE.

I’m with you in regards to a trade down. I would like Miami to trade down and still be within striking range of Smith or Chase. Cincy makes a ton of sense if they’re all in on Sewell. Miami drops a few spots, grabs their second rounder, and still gets their guy. Same for a team like ATL, or Carolina if they’re looking for a QB.

If the Jets take a QB, or trade that pick to someone that does, Miami’s pick becomes very hot in terms of trade value. If they take Chase or Smith or Parsons, then less so.
 

sodenj5

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Miami has fired Robbie Brown as their QB coach and has hired Charlie Frye. Why is this significant?

View: https://twitter.com/buckybrooks/status/1353054558314926080?s=21


Follow the breadcrumbs. It appears that Miami is pushing all-in around Tua. Also with these hires, it’s beginning to look more and more like either Godsey or Studesville is going to end up as the OC.

Edit: people on Twitter are connecting the dots and Ken Dorsey, former U of Miami QB and current Buffalo coach, has ties to these recent hires. Could be the case and they have to wait until Buffalo is eliminated to push forward.
 
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rymflaherty

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Sounds good.
As for Dorsey, he was probably my dream hire. Was bummed when I didn’t see him initially mentioned. Maybe that shouldn’t be the case since he hasn’t actually been an OC, but I’ve heard nothing but stellar things from the voices I respect...and if assuming the best, he fits my idealized notion of a great young OC to grow with Flores and now Tua.
 

sodenj5

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Sounds good.
As for Dorsey, he was probably my dream hire. Was bummed when I didn’t see him initially mentioned. Maybe that shouldn’t be the case since he hasn’t actually been an OC, but I’ve heard nothing but stellar things from the voices I respect...and if assuming the best, he fits my idealized notion of a great young OC to grow with Flores and now Tua.
I mean it still may be as likely an internal hire, but it feels like they would have announced it by now if their intention was to promote Godsey or Studesville.

Either way, I feel more confident than ever that the plan remains to use the draft capital to build around Tua.
 

pdaj

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I'm incredibly excited about the potential for Miami to build their offense around Tua. Imagine adding a receiver like Juju via FA and then a tandem like DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris through the draft? With 4 more years of Tua's rookie contract, the team-building possibilities are immense.

That said, I think Deshaun Watson ends up coming to Miami.
 

sodenj5

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I'm incredibly excited about the potential for Miami to build their offense around Tua. Imagine adding a receiver like Juju via FA and then a tandem like DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris through the draft? With 4 more years of Tua's rookie contract, the team-building possibilities are immense.

That said, I think Deshaun Watson ends up coming to Miami.
I wouldn’t root against Deshaun Watson, obviously, but it feels like another fork in the road moment for the franchise. Brees and Culpepper 2.1.

Drafting Tua initially felt like a huge inflection point in the franchise’s history. Now the decision to continue the path that you’ve laid out over the last few years vs go all in for Watson feels like another.
 

Bowser

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If I were a Dolphins fan I'm not at all sure I'd want Watson and his $35M (after 2021) taking up my salary cap. Good lord. Auction off the #3 and load up. Even if Tua ends up being nothing more than league-average, so what? Plenty of league-average QBs have gone to the SB, and some have won. Jimmy G, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning (2016), Eli Manning.
 

sodenj5

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If I were a Dolphins fan I'm not at all sure I'd want Watson and his $35M (after 2021) taking up my salary cap. Good lord. Auction off the #3 and load up. Even if Tua ends up being nothing more than league-average, so what? Plenty of league-average QBs have gone to the SB, and some have won. Jimmy G, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning (2016), Eli Manning.
These is basically the exact point that has gone back and forth here for the last few weeks.

I’m of the belief that Miami has a higher ceiling with Tua on a cheap contract and building around him with the premium draft capital and supplemental free agents.

Watson, IMO, kneecaps Miami’s ceiling long term. Can you win with a QB on a premium contract? It’s possible, but probably much harder if you don’t already have a nucleus of cheap young talent to offset that cost.
 

OurF'ingCity

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If I were a Dolphins fan I'm not at all sure I'd want Watson and his $35M (after 2021) taking up my salary cap. Good lord. Auction off the #3 and load up. Even if Tua ends up being nothing more than league-average, so what? Plenty of league-average QBs have gone to the SB, and some have won. Jimmy G, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning (2016), Eli Manning.
The risk for the Dolphins is not that Tua ends up as a league-average QB but that he ends up as Marcus Mariota (not saying that's likely, just possible). In which case the Dolphins are back to square one on the QB front when they could have had a top-5 QB for the prime(ish) of his career (at admittedly a very high price).

I haven't watched nearly enough of Tua to be able to intelligently speculate on his career trajectory from here but I don't think it's accurate to say that "league-average" is Tua's worst-case scenario.
 

Cellar-Door

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The risk for the Dolphins is not that Tua ends up as a league-average QB but that he ends up as Marcus Mariota (not saying that's likely, just possible). In which case the Dolphins are back to square one on the QB front when they could have had a top-5 QB for the prime(ish) of his career (at admittedly a very high price).

I haven't watched nearly enough of Tua to be able to intelligently speculate on his career trajectory from here but I don't think it's accurate to say that "league-average" is Tua's worst-case scenario.
There is also the risk he becomes Mariota, you miss on one or more 1st, and you sign one of the many many bad FA deals that get handed out.

Watson is a safe play, Tua/picks/$ is the high variance play.
 

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I'm a Pats fan w/o a dog in this fight, but I feel like if you have a chance to get Deshaun Watson, you get Deshaun Watson. Main reasons:
- The cap will keep going up, making his share of the cap less over time. New TV deal in 2022 will be massive.
- QB is the hardest position to scout, develop, etc. It's much easier to land league average or better talents at other positions later in the draft.
- QB is also a position of one. You can't have a bunch on your roster and see what develops. You need to have a guy and focus all of your resources on him. Other positions, you can be less precise - typically you'll have 8-10 d-backs on a roster, 5-6 linebackers, etc. You can draft, FA, UFA and land on starting quality players (which MIA has already done in the last couple of years).
- QB is the longest tenured position in the league. You'll have Watson 10-12 years (maybe longer!) while if you draft a Najee Harris, he's out of his prime in 6 years, Devonta Smith 8 or so years, etc.

You simply cannot cobble together enough position players to eclipse the value of a singular great QB. Think about that Rams deal with DC for RG3. They got Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead, Rokevious Watkins, Alec Ogletree, Stedman Bailey and Zac Stacy. Not a ton of those names ring a bell and the only guy still with the Rams (only 8 years later) is Brockers. Yeah, MIA will prob draft better than the rams, but how much better? They're not going to hit on all of these picks.

So it comes down to do you think that Tua is going to be special? Maybe - but he's also smaller, has more injury concerns, and didn't blow the doors off in his rookie year. The list of guys who go onto become Watson level special is filled with more players who immediately showed flashes of franchise level talent than players who developed into being special. I'd short Tua and take the sure thing, then rely on the skills already established by my scouting department to find depth at other positions.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm a Pats fan w/o a dog in this fight, but I feel like if you have a chance to get Deshaun Watson, you get Deshaun Watson. Main reasons:
- The cap will keep going up, making his share of the cap less over time. New TV deal in 2022 will be massive.
- QB is the hardest position to scout, develop, etc. It's much easier to land league average or better talents at other positions later in the draft.
- QB is also a position of one. You can't have a bunch on your roster and see what develops. You need to have a guy and focus all of your resources on him. Other positions, you can be less precise - typically you'll have 8-10 d-backs on a roster, 5-6 linebackers, etc. You can draft, FA, UFA and land on starting quality players (which MIA has already done in the last couple of years).
- QB is the longest tenured position in the league. You'll have Watson 10-12 years (maybe longer!) while if you draft a Najee Harris, he's out of his prime in 6 years, Devonta Smith 8 or so years, etc.

You simply cannot cobble together enough position players to eclipse the value of a singular great QB. Think about that Rams deal with DC for RG3. They got Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Isaiah Pead, Rokevious Watkins, Alec Ogletree, Stedman Bailey and Zac Stacy. Not a ton of those names ring a bell and the only guy still with the Rams (only 8 years later) is Brockers. Yeah, MIA will prob draft better than the rams, but how much better? They're not going to hit on all of these picks.

So it comes down to do you think that Tua is going to be special? Maybe - but he's also smaller, has more injury concerns, and didn't blow the doors off in his rookie year. The list of guys who go onto become Watson level special is filled with more players who immediately showed flashes of franchise level talent than players who developed into being special. I'd short Tua and take the sure thing, then rely on the skills already established by my scouting department to find depth at other positions.
Yeah, the thing for me is that the Dolphins have a TON of draft/trade capital.

Tua (worth at least a 1st and likely more)
#3
#18
#36
#50
#82

Depending on how Houston values Tua, they might even be able to pull off a Watson trade without giving up #3. Something like Tua/18/36/50/2022 1st.

I get the difficulty with giving up Tua on his rookie deal but, man, Deshaun is sitting right there on a platter for them and you’re in a conference with Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Lawrence, etc. Watson gets you right in there. Tua might eventually get there but why take that development risk if you don’t need to?
 

Mystic Merlin

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I think they’re making a big mistake if they pass up Watson. Manic and BSF capture the case for going for him very well.

If losing the third pick means no Chase or Smith, then so be it. They can go out and grab Robinson or Godwin in FA, and manage around that from a cap POV. Cutting McCain and Rowe to buy some room and going with younger, cheap guys may not be ideal but trying to find a third corner and S is a problem I would happily deal with.

I think it is easy to get enamored with picks, but there are very few Lattimore/Kamara/Ramcyzk or Brees/LDT drafts that we all dream of.
 

rymflaherty

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The risk for the Dolphins is not that Tua ends up as a league-average QB but that he ends up as Marcus Mariota (not saying that's likely, just possible). In which case the Dolphins are back to square one on the QB front when they could have had a top-5 QB for the prime(ish) of his career (at admittedly a very high price).

I haven't watched nearly enough of Tua to be able to intelligently speculate on his career trajectory from here but I don't think it's accurate to say that "league-average" is Tua's worst-case scenario.
I’m glad someone mentioned “league average” because has anyone looked at what the league average stat line is now-a-days?

65.2% 3842 yds 27 TD 12 Int 93.6 rating

That’s what average was in 2020.
That’s a hof Quarterback a few decades ago. Heck, the rating is over ten points higher than just a decade ago.

If I skew more toward the idea of team building, that’s why. If you have a great scheme and talent on offense, simply competent at QB will look amazing now-a-days. Personally, I’ve found that reality to make it tougher than ever to evaluate the position. And I think that’s true for those that are actually paid to do those evaluations, as you look at the contracts given to guys like Wentz and Goff and how it turns out their performance and success was tied less to their own talent, but to those around them. Or look no further than Tannehill for the reverse.

I guess at the end of the day I haven’t seen enough of Watson to feel that he’s truly special...And I’m not saying he’s not, I’m just admitting to a blind spot.
I’ve seen enough to know that if you asked me Tua or Watson. I take Watson every time...But now you add in everything else and ask me, I’m not so sure, as I think we’ve already seen a bit of a paradigm shift in regards to how the position is viewed and especially with the talent available as more quarterbacks play longer and more QB’s enter the league groomed from their teenage years to be professionals and develop in pass happy systems that are now being incorporated into the NFL.
If Watson wants to force the Texans’ hand and Miami ends up with an offer they can’t refuse, that great, but if it becomes a bidding war, I take my chances trying to build a great team with the assets at their disposal.
 

sodenj5

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Also for all of the had wringing about whether or not Tua can or will be good, his rookie season was not bad by any metric. He played, perhaps, too conservative at times. That is probably the biggest knock from last year. Also he wasn’t Justin Herbert. Ok.

He played in an offense where the skill players, the coaching, playcalling, and play design was optimized for Ryan Fitzpatrick. And that’s fine. But Tua would probably make pretty significant progress in an offense and with players that cater to his strengths.

He was also damned by Miami’s unexpected success. He was being asked to not make critical errors and let the defense do the heavy lifting. Shades of early Big Ben and Tom Brady. That does not mean that he isn’t capable of being Tuscaloosa Tua. We saw it in flashes against Arizona and KC where they took the handcuffs off and let Tua work.

Tua is not the problem. He may never be Dan Marino, or Deshaun Watson, or Drew Brees, but he showed enough flashes of brilliance that you have to feel like you can get Tuscaloosa Tua in Miami if you build the thing around him.
 

BigSoxFan

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Also for all of the had wringing about whether or not Tua can or will be good, his rookie season was not bad by any metric. He played, perhaps, too conservative at times. That is probably the biggest knock from last year. Also he wasn’t Justin Herbert. Ok.

He played in an offense where the skill players, the coaching, playcalling, and play design was optimized for Ryan Fitzpatrick. And that’s fine. But Tua would probably make pretty significant progress in an offense and with players that cater to his strengths.

He was also damned by Miami’s unexpected success. He was being asked to not make critical errors and let the defense do the heavy lifting. Shades of early Big Ben and Tom Brady. That does not mean that he isn’t capable of being Tuscaloosa Tua. We saw it in flashes against Arizona and KC where they took the handcuffs off and let Tua work.

Tua is not the problem. He may never be Dan Marino, or Deshaun Watson, or Drew Brees, but he showed enough flashes of brilliance that you have to feel like you can get Tuscaloosa Tua in Miami if you build the thing around him.
But why build around the hope that you’ll get Tuscaloosa Tua when you can lock in top 5 QB production with Watson? I’d argue that locking in an elite QB is the best use of that draft capital. And you can likely do it while having enough picks left over to address other roster needs.

Going the Tua route puts immense pressure on the Dolphins’ drafting/development because the opportunity cost is an MVP caliber QB right in his prime.

Total potential value is certainly going the Tua route and keeping the picks. But you also have to weigh the pretty heavy odds that some of those high picks don’t pan out.

In fairness, this opinion could change once we learn the price. If someone goes Brooklyn Nets to get Watson and offers like 4-5 1st or something, then I think the calculus changes.
 

sodenj5

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But why build around the hope that you’ll get Tuscaloosa Tua when you can lock in top 5 QB production with Watson? I’d argue that locking in an elite QB is the best use of that draft capital. And you can likely do it while having enough picks left over to address other roster needs.

Going the Tua route puts immense pressure on the Dolphins’ drafting/development because the opportunity cost is an MVP caliber QB right in his prime.

Total potential value is certainly going the Tua route and keeping the picks. But you also have to weigh the pretty heavy odds that some of those high picks don’t pan out.

In fairness, this opinion could change once we learn the price. If someone goes Brooklyn Nets to get Watson and offers like 4-5 1st or something, then I think the calculus changes.
We’re close to saying the same thing. “Tua could be anything! He could even be Deshaun Watson!” Agreed. If it was as simple as Tua and some inconsequential draft picks, I would pack his bags myself.

When it becomes “Tua and the third overall pick, and the 18th overall pick, and the 36th overall pick, and a first next year could be anything! They could even be Deshaun Watson!” that’s where I have my doubts and would rather let some other team implode their draft capital for the next several years.
 

BigSoxFan

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We’re close to saying the same thing. “Tua could be anything! He could even be Deshaun Watson!” Agreed. If it was as simple as Tua and some inconsequential draft picks, I would pack his bags myself.

When it becomes “Tua and the third overall pick, and the 18th overall pick, and the 36th overall pick, and a first next year could be anything! They could even be Deshaun Watson!” that’s where I have my doubts and would rather let some other team implode their draft capital for the next several years.
So, it sounds like a matter of price to you then. What is your cutoff point? The only team that can come close to that price is the Jets. And there’s a decent chance Watson, like any rational human being, wants no part of playing for them. I also think that if both Tua and #3 are in play, that Miami would be able to keep some of their other valuable 2020 picks like 36/50 in favor of future picks.

The big variable here would be how Houston values Tua. But you could also trade Tua to a team that values him higher and use that capital as part of a Watson trade. Of course, that would be risky because of how it would impact your Watson leverage.
 

sodenj5

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So, it sounds like a matter of price to you then. What is your cutoff point? The only team that can come close to that price is the Jets. And there’s a decent chance Watson, like any rational human being, wants no part of playing for them. I also think that if both Tua and #3 are in play, that Miami would be able to keep some of their other valuable 2020 picks like 36/50 in favor of future picks.

The big variable here would be how Houston values Tua. But you could also trade Tua to a team that values him higher and use that capital as part of a Watson trade. Of course, that would be risky because of how it would impact your Watson leverage.
Of course. Everything has a price. If Miami can get Watson for what amounts to Tua, 18, and maybe a first next year or a high value 2, that sound palatable to me.

The problem is the cost will almost certainly be much higher than that. I can see the Jets going full send to outbid other teams but also outbid a division rival. I have no interest in that. Yes, Watson can steer the boat, but he’s also rumored to be a fan of Salah as a coach and NY is also an attractive market.
 

ManicCompression

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If I skew more toward the idea of team building, that’s why. If you have a great scheme and talent on offense, simply competent at QB will look amazing now-a-days. Personally, I’ve found that reality to make it tougher than ever to evaluate the position. And I think that’s true for those that are actually paid to do those evaluations, as you look at the contracts given to guys like Wentz and Goff and how it turns out their performance and success was tied less to their own talent, but to those around them. Or look no further than Tannehill for the reverse.
This is kind of why you want to get Watson. So many things need to be in place for a team with an average QB to contend, whereas if you have a top-tier QB, you can consistently contend with little effort.

Look at the Rams. They have the best D tackle of maybe ever (I don't think that's too much of an exaggeration). They have the best cornerback in the league. They have a really good WR corps and a great coach. They were a Super Bowl contender for one year and it's looking doubtful they're going to get back there in the near future. Same thing with Wentz in Philly - when people thought they had the best roster in the league, they won the Super Bowl, and since then it's been a struggle to make the playoffs. Now both of those "league average QBs" don't look as good and those teams might have to start over at the position.

Remember the Jaguars? Blake Bortles had a league average season that one year with a great roster and then poof, it was all gone when everyone got expensive.

When your QB is just average or even just a little above average, you end up paying guys at less important positions more money to buoy you. But even Aaron Donald, as great as he is, cannot have anywhere near as great an impact as a great QB. Same thing with Jalen Ramsey. And when these guys on big contracts at other positions get injured, as they often do more than QBs, you're pretty much fucked.

The idea of building a roster that makes a QB better is nice and all, but it's not sustainable. You're just making a choice of who you'd rather pay the big contract to when the time comes, and I'd always rather give that money to a QB than a defensive end or a cornerback or RB. Once they bloat your salary cap, as LA is seeing, you have very limited options to remedy it.

Deshaun has been surrounded by historical ineptitude and still thrived in it. I personally think that if he was on Baltimore instead of Lamar, they'd have won a Super Bowl in the last couple of years. And yeah, again, Tua could be special, but what if next year he has one of those Goff or Wentz seasons surrounded by great talent - cool, right? But when the roster attrition starts, what if he's not as good? Miami has to restart this whole thing in 4-5 years? Whereas with Watson, you have a guy who's been consistently good for his entire career, no matter the circumstance, and who'll continue to be good even if they don't get to use the drafts picks that they traded for him.
 

sodenj5

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This is kind of why you want to get Watson. So many things need to be in place for a team with an average QB to contend, whereas if you have a top-tier QB, you can consistently contend with little effort.

Look at the Rams. They have the best D tackle of maybe ever (I don't think that's too much of an exaggeration). They have the best cornerback in the league. They have a really good WR corps and a great coach. They were a Super Bowl contender for one year and it's looking doubtful they're going to get back there in the near future. Same thing with Wentz in Philly - when people thought they had the best roster in the league, they won the Super Bowl, and since then it's been a struggle to make the playoffs. Now both of those "league average QBs" don't look as good and those teams might have to start over at the position.

Remember the Jaguars? Blake Bortles had a league average season that one year with a great roster and then poof, it was all gone when everyone got expensive.

When your QB is just average or even just a little above average, you end up paying guys at less important positions more money to buoy you. But even Aaron Donald, as great as he is, cannot have anywhere near as great an impact as a great QB. Same thing with Jalen Ramsey. And when these guys on big contracts at other positions get injured, as they often do more than QBs, you're pretty much fucked.

The idea of building a roster that makes a QB better is nice and all, but it's not sustainable. You're just making a choice of who you'd rather pay the big contract to when the time comes, and I'd always rather give that money to a QB than a defensive end or a cornerback or RB. Once they bloat your salary cap, as LA is seeing, you have very limited options to remedy it.

Deshaun has been surrounded by historical ineptitude and still thrived in it. I personally think that if he was on Baltimore instead of Lamar, they'd have won a Super Bowl in the last couple of years. And yeah, again, Tua could be special, but what if next year he has one of those Goff or Wentz seasons surrounded by great talent - cool, right? But when the roster attrition starts, what if he's not as good? Miami has to restart this whole thing in 4-5 years? Whereas with Watson, you have a guy who's been consistently good for his entire career, no matter the circumstance, and who'll continue to be good even if they don't get to use the drafts picks that they traded for him.
This is probably the best Pro-Watson reasoning I’ve read so far.
 

Clears Cleaver

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The Stafford trade made it very likely the Lions can and maybe will trade up for a QB, and I think Miami is in perfect position to accommodate them.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Also for all of the had wringing about whether or not Tua can or will be good, his rookie season was not bad by any metric. He played, perhaps, too conservative at times. That is probably the biggest knock from last year. Also he wasn’t Justin Herbert. Ok.

He played in an offense where the skill players, the coaching, playcalling, and play design was optimized for Ryan Fitzpatrick. And that’s fine. But Tua would probably make pretty significant progress in an offense and with players that cater to his strengths.

He was also damned by Miami’s unexpected success. He was being asked to not make critical errors and let the defense do the heavy lifting. Shades of early Big Ben and Tom Brady. That does not mean that he isn’t capable of being Tuscaloosa Tua. We saw it in flashes against Arizona and KC where they took the handcuffs off and let Tua work.

Tua is not the problem. He may never be Dan Marino, or Deshaun Watson, or Drew Brees, but he showed enough flashes of brilliance that you have to feel like you can get Tuscaloosa Tua in Miami if you build the thing around him.
You're one of the more optimistic Dolphins fans on this board. That's not a bad thing, by the way. But when I read your posts on Miami (not the Pat's though, asshole), I tend to feel the points are well thought out and well reasoned. But they tend to skew towards either neutral or a positive (not always. I think you're realistic regarding roster construction and weaknesses). I think part of that is the solid organizational direction of the past few seasons, but this has been your style here since well before the team made a u-turn. With that said, despite our disagreements, you do bring really good knowledge for Dolphins info.

The reason I say all this isnt to critique your posting. It's because, since week 8 when Tua got the reigns, it feels like you've gone out of your way to make excuses for Tua and had complete blinders for his weaknesses. Even when you acknowledge his poor play, it almost always includes a caveat (hes rusty, Chan Gailey, other skill players, offensive line, etc). And while all those points have some validity, the results are what they are.

I cant remember the exact numbers, but I recall a good post made by @SMU_Sox during the draft that expressed serious concern with Tua's ability to read past his first option (Something about the completion % dropping way more than expected versus his peers and historical numbers when going from first option to second option). Now, while I agree that its not fair to write the kid off after a half season, he has shown very similar issue with the Dolphins, and writing it off as Chan Gaileys fault seems like whistling passed the graveyard.

The Dolphins situation is great to be in. But at some point a team needs to stop playing it safe and push their chips to the center of the table. This parallels the Celtics situation pretty closely. Rebuilt with draft picks and trading PP/KG, built well organizationally, and put themselves in a position to build with young players OR trades. But instead of pushing their chips into the center of the table, they watched their best fungible asset last season (Memphis draft pick expected to be top 3) dissapear. Now they're stuck. A very good young team with no options to improve unless players take a superstar leap.

I know this post was kind of all over, but I guess the point is that the Dolphins have done well to acquire great assets as well as build a good foundation, but they cant keep kicking the can on a decision when to go all in. When the opportunity presents itself, they have a window and they have to take it. The choice came quicker than expected. Could Tua end up great? Sure. But we KNOW Watson is. If it takes Tua and the 3rd overall and a 2nd rounder, you take it and run. You're gambling on Tua. You're gambling on the 3rd overall being good. With the Dolphins roster, Flores, Watson, draft, and a good offseason? This is a SB contender. You dont gamble on that.

As a Patriots fan, I hope you dont get Watson. That's a data point, too.
 

rymflaherty

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Not sure if this is already common knowledge, but I found it interesting... Ja’marr Chase is only 20 years old.
He was just 19 during his Biletnikoff/NC season.
 

pdaj

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If it takes Tua and the 3rd overall and a 2nd rounder, you take it and run. You're gambling on Tua. You're gambling on the 3rd overall being good. With the Dolphins roster, Flores, Watson, draft, and a good offseason? This is a SB contender. You dont gamble on that.

As a Patriots fan, I hope you dont get Watson. That's a data point, too.
I'm a big believer in Tua, but if that's the price for Watson? I, like you, would take it, run, and never look back.

The problem? I think that the cost will be substantially higher. And if the Texas are silly/brave/whatever enough to prolong this issue beyond the draft, that significantly complicates the planning process.

My preferences?

1) Miami completes a deal for Watson without making it too difficult to surround him with the necessary weapons + build depth defensively. I'd even do Tua, #3, #18, and a future 2nd. Beyond that. Let's roll the dice with our young guy.

2) Watson agrees to a trade to an NFC team, or at least to any franchise outside the AFC East.

If #2 happens, I'm cool. I think Tua will become a great QB.

But I don't want to see the Dolphins face Watson 2x a year for the next decade, courtesy of the Jets.
 
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sodenj5

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View: https://twitter.com/cameronwolfe/status/1356648170718195716?s=21


Well, this is certainly a first.

Not sure what to think about it to be honest. Studesville is certainly well respected when it comes to the running game. Godsey moved from TE coach to QB coach during the season. The follow up tweet from Wolfe suggests Charlie Frye will be involved as well with the focus on developing Tua.

Again, this points to Miami pushing further into the corner of Tua. Promoting the guy that was the QB coach to a coordinator position. Hiring the guy that worked with Tua at the Elite 11. Not hiring an external candidate to tear down and install a brand new offense.

All of these things point towards trying to build some continuity and a support system for Tua. I don’t think they make these moves if they’re planning on going all in for Watson. But I could be wrong.

Edit: a few more thoughts. Miami had both Godsey and Studesville call plays at the Senior Bowl.

Credit to Brian Flores for not just talking the talk, but walking the walk. He said that he saw Studesville as a future coordinator and coach. A lot of people thought he was getting a look at OC as a professional courtesy, but here we are.

Will this work? I have no clue. This is uncharted waters, and is the definition of zagging when the NFL zigs. Most teams hire an OC to be the coach, not democratize the offensive coordination.

My gut tells me that Godsey ends up calling the plays, and Studesville is basically the super version of run game coordinator.
 
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