Danilo Gallinari to the Celtics

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
7,546
New York, NY
Here's hoping they keep everyone they have and sign Melo. I don't like the idea of giving up White. The last taste in our mouths on him is negative because of the Finals, not that he was alone in those last several games, but he does a lot of things well and provides depth. I don't see the difference between what they might get out of Bogdonovich and Melo as being worth expending an asset. And I don't even particularly love Anthony. But like Gallinari, he will give them some offense off the bench and needed depth.

PS: I'm a little surprised that Melo hasn't gotten done yet. Long weekend the culprit? The Sox managed to sign Kike during this time, but then again it's not their off season.
I don’t think they need to rush to replace Gallinari, so I don’t particularly care if they sign Melo. Agree that trading White for Bogdanovich doesn’t make sense. I can see it being a tough call whether to sign a guaranteed mediocrity at significant expense or to wait it out, see how Hauser does when availability creates opportunities, and revisit the issue at the deadline when we know how Gallinari’s recovery is progressing. If we were under the tax, this would be an easy call, but if paying Melo now impacts the financial ability to trade for a better player at the deadline, I’d rather than sit tight and figure this out later.
 

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
1,081
Isle of Plum
I don’t think they need to rush to replace Gallinari, so I don’t particularly care if they sign Melo. Agree that trading White for Bogdanovich doesn’t make sense. I can see it being a tough call whether to sign a guaranteed mediocrity at significant expense or to wait it out, see how Hauser does when availability creates opportunities, and revisit the issue at the deadline when we know how Gallinari’s recovery is progressing. If we were under the tax, this would be an easy call, but if paying Melo now impacts the financial ability to trade for a better player at the deadline, I’d rather than sit tight and figure this out later.
Definitely agree there’s no reason to be rash, but I’d prefer to spell my starters (really anyone who played a lot of minutes last season) from jump if possible. I believe Melo has bbiq and experience enough to fit into whatever role, but in general I think there’s added value in getting whomever into training camp etc as well.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
39,617
Melrose, MA
I don’t know why we are so anxious to move Derrick White. He is a great complementary piece on this team with the Jays.
This. Brogdon is unreliable, health-wise and defense-wise. Shipping out White fundamentally changes the charater of the team away from defense first.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,221
Maine
Wait....I thought Brogdon was good or at least above avg defensively?

Injury wise.....hard to argue.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
5,626
Imaginationland
Some of the advanced stats don’t agree with you.

I thought he was considered a plus defender as well but perhaps not.
That's always been my impression as well, but as the leading scorer on bad Pacer teams the last few years, I'm willing to cut him a break on his recent defensive shortcomings.
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
1,049
Some of the advanced stats don’t agree with you.

I thought he was considered a plus defender as well but perhaps not.
Perhaps advanced stats are still not great in capturing what a player is doing defensively in one situation and predictive of how he will defend in another.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
8,343
With all due respect to some of the advanced stats, on the list of my concerns for the C's coming season, Brogdon's defense is near the bottom.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
12,317
Perhaps, and probably. But has anyone here actually watched enough film to really have a different opinion that's actually grounded in something real?
This is exactly why my default opinion, particularly about non-Celtics, is usually heavily slanted towards a consensus of multiple advanced stats.

Why would my guess about Brogdon’s D be significantly better (or better at all), than looking at a combination of DARKO, RAPTOR, etc?

We cen certainly come up with team specific reasons that those stats might under or over rate certain players. But do we know how legit those reasons really are? Or how much weight to give it? I’m kinda doubt it.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
8,862
around the way
This is exactly why my default opinion, particularly about non-Celtics, is usually heavily slanted towards a consensus of multiple advanced stats.

Why would my guess about Brogdon’s D be significantly better (or better at all), than looking at a combination of DARKO, RAPTOR, etc?

We cen certainly come up with team specific reasons that those stats might under or over rate certain players. But do we know how legit those reasons really are? Or how much weight to give it? I’m kinda doubt it.
FWIW, I agree that we should be careful in the weight that we apply to defensive advanced stats because they're still young and developing. And folks have attempted a "blended scotch" approach, including some pretty smart professional statisticians. It's always good to try to ferret out the outliers one way or another.

All approaches for isolating the outliers have some risk. Blending them, while a useful tool for playing around with the numbers, seems to simply factor in the outliers and water down the (potentially) better numbers. A second approach is to drop the outlier altogether (the "Russian Judge approach") and simply take the means of the others, normalized. The problem with that approach is that sometimes the outlier is just a better number. We've seen that in baseball stats over the years--even one version of WAR itself was recently recalibrated (the BRef version IIRC)--and that shit has been out there forever.

I think that factoring in multiple sources (like you wrote) is still a requirement and that blending them is just watering them down. But we still need to apply a lot of eye test and hedge things in general. You see a lot of "Well, LEBRON and RAPTOR love his defense, but DARKO isn't so sure, and this other one..." It's not definitive by any means, but if three or four sources agree with your eye test, and if you're also factoring in their age, measurables, their current situation, etc., it gets you a lot of the way there. My .02.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
17,187
Somewhere
In terms of blended stats, I've been using craftednba a lot lately. Despite the drawbacks (weird interface, layout), they aggregate the big advanced metrics (DARKO, RAPTOR, LEBRON) alongside some other numbers.
 

pjheff

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2003
1,049
This is exactly why my default opinion, particularly about non-Celtics, is usually heavily slanted towards a consensus of multiple advanced stats.
As a thought exercise — and I honestly don’t know the answer — I’d be curious as to what the advanced stats said about Al Horford during the last four years, with two Celtics seasons under different coaches flanking ones in Philly and OKC.
 

DGreenwood

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 2, 2003
2,149
Seattle
What advantage does this give the Celtics at that dollar amount? Maybe the ability to offer a buyout a little more than another team that can only offer the vet minimum?
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
39,617
Melrose, MA
Not nothing, but according to the trade machine we still have exceptions for Bol (~2.1), Juancho (~6.9), and JRich (~5.9). If that's accurate, we already have some good coverage for minimum and tank/salary dump guys.
The TPEs can be used to trade for a player, the DPE to sign a player. That’s the difference.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
8,343
It's interesting, at least to me, that Gallo has been traveling with the team all season. That's not always the case with players recovering from long-term injuries.

I wonder how his rehab is coming along. Not sure exactly where he'd fit in, given all the C's options right now, but his experience and shooting probably wouldn't hurt.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
27,560
It's interesting, at least to me, that Gallo has been traveling with the team all season. That's not always the case with players recovering from long-term injuries.

I wonder how his rehab is coming along. Not sure exactly where he'd fit in, given all the C's options right now, but his experience and shooting probably wouldn't hurt.
Weiss reported he was doing stationary shooting drills last week. Still a long way off.

View: https://twitter.com/JaredWeissNBA/status/1597992646932561921
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts way less than 18% useful shit
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2010
13,298
Did his injury turn out to be a blessing in disguise? I'd have to think one of Kornet/Hauser end up not seeing the court much if Gallinari was healthy. Even more so after Williams return.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
6,216
If he can get healthy for the playoffs, having a veteran long distance specialist who can score in bunches could be a great insurance policy for offensive stagnation
 

Caspir

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
6,468
Man, I think if he comes back for the playoffs, he will be the stagnation.

Not seeing live action all year, then jumping into the playoffs seems like a recipe for failure, and a disruption to what looks like one of the best offenses in recent history.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
16,386
Santa Monica
Man, I think if he comes back for the playoffs, he will be the stagnation.

Not seeing live action all year, then jumping into the playoffs seems like a recipe for failure, and a disruption to what looks like one of the best offenses in recent history.
34yr old slow, bad defender... and that was before his 2nd knee surgery

There's a better chance he gets traded before he ever suits up for the Celtics
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
34yr old slow, bad defender... and that was before his 2nd knee surgery

There's a better chance he gets traded before he ever suits up for the Celtics
I don’t see anyone wanting to trade for him. I’d imagine he’s not in the rotation but on the end of the bench for an emergency sitting next to Blake Griffin so we can have two Adonis Haslem’s on the roster.
 
Last edited:

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
12,317
Hauser would have to get hurt or turn into a pumpkin for Danillo get any meaningful minutes this season.

Hard to see a legit role for him this season the way things are going.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,655
Toscana via Kyiv
I don’t see anyone wanting to trade for him. I’d imagine he’s not in the rotation but on the end of the bench for an emergency sitting next to Blake Griffin so we can have two Adonis Haslem’s on the roster.
Salary match to a team under the tax is pretty realistic though.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
54,396
Hauser would have to get hurt or turn into a pumpkin for Danillo get any meaningful minutes this season.

Hard to see a legit role for him this season the way things are going.
Sooooo… he wouldn’t have any use… unless there is an injury?

And how unlikely is that, would you say, doctor? ;)
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
26,076
Salary match to a team under the tax is pretty realistic though.
What would a team under the tax, presumably a lottery team, want with Gallo though? The teams who would be his best suitors would be someone like the Lakers, Nets, etc but coming off his knee the return wouldn’t be anything of significance (protected 2nd?) so his best use would be as a veteran insurance policy for us.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
16,386
Santa Monica
What would a team under the tax, presumably a lottery team, want with Gallo though? The teams who would be his best suitors would be someone like the Lakers, Nets, etc but coming off his knee the return wouldn’t be anything of significance (protected 2nd?) so his best use would be as a veteran insurance policy for us.
the idea is Boston would attach assets to Gallinari to get a player of need from an under-tax team/tanker that has a healthy vet.
Gallo would be ballast to match.

That's been Brad's blueprint in the Horford, Brogdon, and White trades.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,655
Toscana via Kyiv
the idea is Boston would attach assets to Gallinari to get a player of need from an under-tax team/tanker that has a healthy vet.
Gallo would be ballast to match.

That's been Brad's blueprint in the Horford, Brogdon, and White trades.
Yeah, exactly.

Same thing the Pacers wanted with Theis.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
17,564
St. Louis, MO
the idea is Boston would attach assets to Gallinari to get a player of need from an under-tax team/tanker that has a healthy vet.
Gallo would be ballast to match.

That's been Brad's blueprint in the Horford, Brogdon, and White trades.
Poeltl, come on down.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
28,677
They have a $6.9 mil trade exception (from Juancho) until Jan and Schroder's $5.9 mil exception until Feb so Gallinari's $6.5 mil number could conceivably matter if the 600k difference between his contract and Schroder exception is needed AND deal happens in Feb), but is not likely to.

The bigger reason you'd move Gallinari is Celtics wanting to dump that commitment and lux tax payment in order to take on new money. Which requries more value going the other way
 

DavidTai

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
830
Herndon, VA
The bigger reason you'd move Gallinari is Celtics wanting to dump that commitment and lux tax payment in order to take on new money. Which requries more value going the other way
Does his spot on the roster mean they need to clear him for a new acquisition? Or did the exemption they get for him also clear a spot?
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
16,386
Santa Monica
They have a $6.9 mil trade exception (from Juancho) until Jan and Schroder's $5.9 mil exception until Feb so Gallinari's $6.5 mil number could conceivably matter if the 600k difference between his contract and Schroder exception is needed AND deal happens in Feb), but is not likely to.

The bigger reason you'd move Gallinari is Celtics wanting to dump that commitment and lux tax payment in order to take on new money. Which requries more value going the other way
Agree with the bigger reason (assets; PP, pick swaps, '25 1st, JD, Begarin, Yam)

TPEs probably expire (unless Brad rolls them in a deal) since you can't staple contracts to them to land the more expensive player.
Having Horford on his discount deal, Hauser for peanuts and Grant's RFA makes Gallo really expendable
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
3,679
Saint Paul, MN
Is there a three team that allows a Jae Crowder reunion tour? I know Crowder was bitching about having to come off the bench, something he would do here as well, but maybe there was more to it than that?

Gallo + either Jackson/Vonleh/Blake or Gallo + Pritchard is enough to get you there. What other asset though? Wouldn't want to give up a first, but maybe?
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,655
Toscana via Kyiv
Is there a three team that allows a Jae Crowder reunion tour? I know Crowder was bitching about having to come off the bench, something he would do here as well, but maybe there was more to it than that?

Gallo + either Jackson/Vonleh/Blake or Gallo + Pritchard is enough to get you there. What other asset though? Wouldn't want to give up a first, but maybe?
Would Crowder even play for the Celtics? He seems like worse Grant at the big wing, and Smart is much, much better at the small wing position.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
16,386
Santa Monica
Is there a three team that allows a Jae Crowder reunion tour? I know Crowder was bitching about having to come off the bench, something he would do here as well, but maybe there was more to it than that?

Gallo + either Jackson/Vonleh/Blake or Gallo + Pritchard is enough to get you there. What other asset though? Wouldn't want to give up a first, but maybe?
Brad is so darn good at getting mileage out of Firsts, I doubt he includes that for 1yr of Crowder.

Time is really working on Boston's side. Brad can be really selective with their chips since Luke/Blake are playing well enough as their fungible 5s
 

Swedgin

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2013
633
They have a $6.9 mil trade exception (from Juancho) until Jan and Schroder's $5.9 mil exception until Feb so Gallinari's $6.5 mil number could conceivably matter if the 600k difference between his contract and Schroder exception is needed AND deal happens in Feb), but is not likely to.

The bigger reason you'd move Gallinari is Celtics wanting to dump that commitment and lux tax payment in order to take on new money. Which requries more value going the other way
You have greater flexibility with Gallo as opposed to either of the TPEs. He can bring back 125% of his salary plus 100K, so around 8.2. More importantly, unlike a TPE his salary can be combined with other salary for matching purposes.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
3,679
Saint Paul, MN
Would Crowder even play for the Celtics? He seems like worse Grant at the big wing, and Smart is much, much better at the small wing position.
The trio of Blake, Pritchard, and Vonleh have played 455 minutes, nearly the same number of minutes this year as Brogdon. There are always minutes available for good players.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,655
Toscana via Kyiv
The trio of Blake, Pritchard, and Vonleh have played 455 minutes, nearly the same number of minutes this year as Brogdon. There are always minutes available for good players.
I was being a bit hyperbolic, since guys always rest or are hurt.

However, I'd note that all the names mentioned specifically don't play any of the positions Crowder would fill. He'd be competing for Justin Jackson's minutes, which have been extremely minimal outside of garbage time.

With Brown, Tatum, Smart, Grant, Hauser, and sometimes Horford and Brogdon, the Cs are very deep at the 2-4, and Crowder isn't an upgrade on those guys.

Jae Crowder is a decent player, and he'd play on most teams, but the Cs are quite deep outside of center.