2024 NBA General Offseason Thread

PedroKsBambino

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I believe the two material trade implications of second apron are:

1. You have to match exactly (or under)...e.g. no wiggle room or within $x
2. You cannot aggregate salaries

Those both net out to there being benefits to having some mid-size numbers on your books which you can trade for other assets/profiles, though. So I don't rule out that they sign Tillman, Hauser so they have those slots and realize that betwen those two, PP, KP they need to move a couple after the season.

Might you sign Hauser to the non-tax MLE number ($12.4) so you can swap for one of those? Tillman for at least the BAE (maybe even the room?) It's not my money, and they probably won't do both Hauser and Tillman, but I'd be thinking about matching as well as value when I signed them
 

PedroKsBambino

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Bamba's great for the pre-season junior beat writer article about "maybe he'll put these tantalizing skills together this year....." where you can talk about blocks, 3 Pt range, and physical tools.

But not actually on the court for an actual competitive basketball team
 

ifmanis5

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Bamba's great for the pre-season junior beat writer article about "maybe he'll put these tantalizing skills together this year....." where you can talk about blocks, 3 Pt range, and physical tools.

But not actually on the court for an actual competitive basketball team
LOL, he's still only 26!!
 

DavidTai

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Bamba's great for the pre-season junior beat writer article about "maybe he'll put these tantalizing skills together this year....." where you can talk about blocks, 3 Pt range, and physical tools.

But not actually on the court for an actual competitive basketball team
Can't the same be said of Bol Bol?
 

benhogan

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Probably better, but stats are really very similar both traditional and advanced - RAPTOR has Hauser as better, Darko has Joe as better. And Joe is 1.5 years younger (so, while I'm not sure there's a lot of upside to either, age is probably in Joe's favor contractually)

If anything, this would seem to validate what we were discussing about Hauser's salary, imo
I wonder if Sam would be interested in a 3yr extension for $42M with the last year being an option ($12M + $14M + $16M)

That would be a discount to Joe's deal but would get Sam out when he's 29.

I refuse to give up on a Sam extension.
 

lovegtm

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If they can sign Hauser to a long term deal they like this offseason, they still might.

They are probably fine decide who to keep (KP, PP, Hauser, Al, Tillman, etc) after the season, knowing they won't be able to keep them all.

The only (potential) problem with that.... arent there rules for trades if you are over the 2nd apron? Would that muck up that plan?
It would be straightforward to trade Hauser for cap relief. You'd send him to a team with space: Detroit, San Antonio, etc would all jump on it.

I think there's a very strong chance Hauser extends, but then one of Hauser or KP will get dealt in 25-26.
 

Imbricus

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I wonder if Sam would be interested in a 3yr extension for $42M with the last year being an option ($12M + $14M + $16M)
This feels about right to me. One interesting thing: I don't think we've seen anything from Hauser along the lines of, "I want to be in Boston for a while." He's playing his cards close to the vest.
 

Justthetippett

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Maybe this offseason is an anomaly but if this is new reality under the current CBA they have to make changes. The NBA thrives on the player movement discussion and this has been the most boring, non interesting free agent period I can remember.
It might be the newness of all this that is making it a struggle for teams. Also, it's damn complicated and fans are not going to really understand it. I am sure the League and PA will give this a run but we definitely have not reached our long term steady state on the cap, tax, etc.
 

m0ckduck

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I hadn't appreciated that signing Hartenstein was the biggest FA that had ever been lured to OKC, and furthermore it was the Gordon Hayward trade earlier in the year that cleared the cap room for them to do it.

https://www.si.com/nba/thunder/news/gordon-hayward-trade-proves-to-live-up-to-multidimensional-billing
That's a good reminder, thanks— I'd forgotten that the Hayward trade cleared the pathway.

I like the signing for OKC as a strategic overpay that's worth the outlay considering fit and destination. But I do wonder if people are being too nonchalant in assuming it will all fit together seamlessly. There seems to be an assumption that goes like, "OKC was awesome last year but lacked rebounding... well, now they've added rebounding... let's start printing Finals tickets". Switching from the 5-out offense to a 4-1 could take a lot off the table, both in terms of clogging up space for SGA... and you never know whether moving Chet to the 4 is going to immediately unlock his inner Durant or rather turn him into KP-on-the-Mavs, where there's a lot of standing around in the corner. I think they will figure it out eventually and am willing to bet on Presti's instincts, but there could be a few rocky months in the early going.
 

Jimbodandy

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That's a good reminder, thanks— I'd forgotten that the Hayward trade cleared the pathway.

I like the signing for OKC as a strategic overpay that's worth the outlay considering fit and destination. But I do wonder if people are being too nonchalant in assuming it will all fit together seamlessly. There seems to be an assumption that goes like, "OKC was awesome last year but lacked rebounding... well, now they've added rebounding... let's start printing Finals tickets". Switching from the 5-out offense to a 4-1 could take a lot off the table, both in terms of clogging up space for SGA... and you never know whether moving Chet to the 4 is going to immediately unlock his inner Durant or rather turn him into KP-on-the-Mavs, where there's a lot of standing around in the corner. I think they will figure it out eventually and am willing to bet on Presti's instincts, but there could be a few rocky months in the early going.
Fair point. Can't assume that any move is a fit. Fwiw, I think that Hartenstein's addition isn't just about adding rebounding. Hartenstein and Caruso add experience and toughness & compete level as well. It's a super young team.
 

benhogan

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That's a good reminder, thanks— I'd forgotten that the Hayward trade cleared the pathway.

I like the signing for OKC as a strategic overpay that's worth the outlay considering fit and destination. But I do wonder if people are being too nonchalant in assuming it will all fit together seamlessly. There seems to be an assumption that goes like, "OKC was awesome last year but lacked rebounding... well, now they've added rebounding... let's start printing Finals tickets". Switching from the 5-out offense to a 4-1 could take a lot off the table, both in terms of clogging up space for SGA... and you never know whether moving Chet to the 4 is going to immediately unlock his inner Durant or rather turn him into KP-on-the-Mavs, where there's a lot of standing around in the corner. I think they will figure it out eventually and am willing to bet on Presti's instincts, but there could be a few rocky months in the early going.
How can you not love Presti's rebuild from the moment Paul George demanded an exit? He has done nothing but clever moves,
culminating in the Caruso get last week. BUT man is this an overpay for a hustle Center. I get they have a salary slot, MUST USE or lose and I've liked Isaiah Hartenstein since the NYK signed him. This felt like the moment for Presti to consolidate draft picks/young players and use that salary slot for higher-end talent (+ extend Caruso)

Regardless, OKC is going to be very good over the next 5 seasons mostly due to JDub/SGA/Chet/Joe/Wallace growth.
 

lovegtm

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That's a good reminder, thanks— I'd forgotten that the Hayward trade cleared the pathway.

I like the signing for OKC as a strategic overpay that's worth the outlay considering fit and destination. But I do wonder if people are being too nonchalant in assuming it will all fit together seamlessly. There seems to be an assumption that goes like, "OKC was awesome last year but lacked rebounding... well, now they've added rebounding... let's start printing Finals tickets". Switching from the 5-out offense to a 4-1 could take a lot off the table, both in terms of clogging up space for SGA... and you never know whether moving Chet to the 4 is going to immediately unlock his inner Durant or rather turn him into KP-on-the-Mavs, where there's a lot of standing around in the corner. I think they will figure it out eventually and am willing to bet on Presti's instincts, but there could be a few rocky months in the early going.
People are generally too bearish on 4-out offense and too bullish on 5-out offense, imo. The key is that the 4-out has to be really 4-out: you can't have PJ Washington and DJJ bricking above-the-break 3s.

Vertical spacing is real and puts tremendous pressure on defenses, when combined with the right playmakers.

I do agree with you that Chet is the key here: if he can actually attack closeouts in space, things get interesting. If not, and if his 3-point shooting regresses or is too low-volume to threaten, this won't work.
 

TomRicardo

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How can you not love Presti's rebuild from the moment Paul George demanded an exit? He has done nothing but clever moves,
culminating in the Caruso get last week. BUT man is this an overpay for a hustle Center. I get they have a salary slot, MUST USE or lose and I've liked Isaiah Hartenstein since the NYK signed him. This felt like the moment for Presti to consolidate draft picks/young players and use that salary slot for higher-end talent (+ extend Caruso)

Regardless, OKC is going to be very good over the next 5 seasons mostly due to JDub/SGA/Chet/Joe/Wallace growth.
What higher end talent at center? Ayton? I think Hartenstein matches their team better than Ayton. Timelord maybe but I think the Thunder want someone healthier than that. LA isn't trading AD. Poetl give you that much more than Chet.

It is always easy to wave your hands and say higher end talent but there is only so much higher end talent in the league. Gets harder when you are looking for defensive center for a contender.
 

lovegtm

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What higher end talent at center? Ayton? I think Hartenstein matches their team better than Ayton. Timelord maybe but I think the Thunder want someone healthier than that. LA isn't trading AD. Poetl give you that much more than Chet.

It is always easy to wave your hands and say higher end talent but there is only so much higher end talent in the league. Gets harder when you are looking for defensive center for a contender.
At this point, I think the Thunder might just use the picks. They already got JDub with the #12 from LAC.
 

Ed Hillel

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JBB already gone; guess this is it for Garland.

I'm kind of surprised Mitchell committed to Cleveland. I guess "take the extension and figure out the trade later" has become so popular and safe that it's always the default.
Yeah, I’d be shocked if he’s not demanding a trade within a year or two max. Lock in the money, figure it out later. Replace Butler in Miami maybe.
 

the moops

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Maybe this offseason is an anomaly but if this is new reality under the current CBA they have to make changes. The NBA thrives on the player movement discussion and this has been the most boring, non interesting free agent period I can remember.
Last year the biggest free agent names to move teams were like Bruce Brown and Dillon Brooks. The year before that Jalen Brunson and PJ Tucker.

I think Paul George and Klay Thompson moving teams is as impactful as we have seen in a while. Free agency is always kinda boring these days. Teams rarely are built through free agency.
 

cheech13

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What higher end talent at center? Ayton? I think Hartenstein matches their team better than Ayton. Timelord maybe but I think the Thunder want someone healthier than that. LA isn't trading AD. Poetl give you that much more than Chet.

It is always easy to wave your hands and say higher end talent but there is only so much higher end talent in the league. Gets harder when you are looking for defensive center for a contender.
Detroit and Charlotte were both willing to trade their pick in the draft. OKC could have moved from 12 to 5 by using their war chest of extra picks and gotten Donovan Clingan.
 

TomRicardo

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Detroit and Charlotte were both willing to trade their pick in the draft. OKC could have moved from 12 to 5 by using their war chest of extra picks and gotten Donovan Clingan.
Hartenstein is better than Clingan for the Thunder. They are in a window now.
 

BigMike

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Detroit and Charlotte were both willing to trade their pick in the draft. OKC could have moved from 12 to 5 by using their war chest of extra picks and gotten Donovan Clingan.
Sure, I guess they could have, but are we saying Clingan is better than Hartenstein? He might be in a couple of years I guess. but not a sure thing in any way. I like Clingan and think he has a chance to be a good NBA big, am I sure about him, No way.

the thunder have to be licking their lips at the potential of the next 3 Clippers picks and all unprotected. Sure I don't think the Clippers will hit rock bottom, but in the west, a couple of those picks could end up in the back end of the lottery, and then there is a chance they rise
 

HomeRunBaker

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Detroit and Charlotte were both willing to trade their pick in the draft. OKC could have moved from 12 to 5 by using their war chest of extra picks and gotten Donovan Clingan.
We don’t know if Clingan can even play in the league and certainly isn’t as advanced as Hartenstein right now. OKC is positioning themselves to be in The Finals next season not in the business of developing a rookie as a key piece.
 

m0ckduck

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What higher end talent at center? Ayton? I think Hartenstein matches their team better than Ayton. Timelord maybe but I think the Thunder want someone healthier than that. LA isn't trading AD. Poetl give you that much more than Chet.

It is always easy to wave your hands and say higher end talent but there is only so much higher end talent in the league. Gets harder when you are looking for defensive center for a contender.
Jarrett Allen would have been interesting. Similar/better player, likely available, would have cost picks (3 firsts?), is signed for two more years at 20M per.
 
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Auger34

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I think people are kind of underselling Hartenstein here.

Yes, it was an overpay by the Thunder but Hartenstein has some legitimate passing skills and a good feel for the game. He 's also a good screener and does all of the hustle/dirty stuff saying.

He's like the filet mignon of hustle centers and that's something the Thunder desperately needed. It also gives them a lot more dimensionality and adaptability. They can go "twin towers" or put Chet on the bench if they really need beef.
It's also another legitimate rotation piece and the Thunder were surprisingly short on those before this signing. Now Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Wiggins, etc. move down a notch and it looks like a more complete team

As someone mentioned, the key to this completely working is that Chet needs to be able to shoot the ball and have gravity there.

This also fits perfectly in the Thunder timeline. They get to keep their warchest of picks and they still have the ability to pay SGA, J-Dub, and Chet their max deals and not worry about going over the tax.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Huge for the Cavs. That's the guy on the roster you build around



JBB already gone; guess this is it for Garland.

What the Cavs can turn Garland and his salary into feels like the next biggest question in their attempt to make this team into a legit contender.

I get why they did the deal at the time. But having $35-40M tied up in an sub-All Star level undersized PG who doesn't defend or finish close to the basket particularly well is a tough thing to build around, if you wanna be a Finals team.

I'm no cap expert-- and certainly not about the latest version of it. That said, once upon a time I'd have said they'd be well suited to turning Garland into a year of Jimmy Butler and then freeing up the money and having flexibility to add the best complement to Spida and Mobley that's out there. I don't really know if that kind of deal is still possible, or if having a bunch of salary cap space still has the same kind of value. We might be entering a period where both trades and free agent movement happen less often. Which would make adding back-end rotation players who complement your top 2-3 through the draft that much more important.

The other things that will help the Cavs: (i) Mobley taking the next leap, at both ends, so that you don't notice so much when Jarrett Allen is off the court. And (ii) replacing Caris LaVert with a better shooting / defending wing. I'm assuming the front office is hoping that Jaylon Tyson, who they just took in the first round, is that Caris LaVert replacement sooner rather than later. We'll see.
 

Justthetippett

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I think people are kind of underselling Hartenstein here.

Yes, it was an overpay by the Thunder but Hartenstein has some legitimate passing skills and a good feel for the game. He 's also a good screener and does all of the hustle/dirty stuff saying.

He's like the filet mignon of hustle centers and that's something the Thunder desperately needed. It also gives them a lot more dimensionality and adaptability. They can go "twin towers" or put Chet on the bench if they really need beef.
It's also another legitimate rotation piece and the Thunder were surprisingly short on those before this signing. Now Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Wiggins, etc. move down a notch and it looks like a more complete team

As someone mentioned, the key to this completely working is that Chet needs to be able to shoot the ball and have gravity there.

This also fits perfectly in the Thunder timeline. They get to keep their warchest of picks and they still have the ability to pay SGA, J-Dub, and Chet their max deals and not worry about going over the tax.
How does the math work on three max contracts now? Will they really be able to carry those (and their supporting cast contracts) without going into the second apron?
 

TomRicardo

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How does the math work on three max contracts now? Will they really be able to carry those (and their supporting cast contracts) without going into the second apron?
Depends. Not all max contracts are the same. SGA will get a super max but it is not clear if Chet will (there is ~10 million difference). Thats said they will probably end up in the second apron.

I wonder if DeRozan will stay in Chicago now. Utah and Detroit at the only teams left with 30 million left in cap space.
 

lovegtm

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Depends. Not all max contracts are the same. SGA will get a super max but it is not clear if Chet will (there is ~10 million difference). Thats said they will probably end up in the second apron.

I wonder if DeRozan will stay in Chicago now. Utah and Detroit at the only teams left with 30 million left in cap space.
Right, if JDub and Chet both miss the criteria, they'd be on 25% maxes with SGA at 35%, so 85% of the cap. For a 3-man core comparison, the Celtics will have Jaylen+JT+DWhite at around 90% of the cap in 2025-26.

However, JDub and Chet could make All-NBA (or DPOY for Chet, very possible), and get 30% maxes. In which case you're at 95%.

OKC is looking at being 85-90% for that 3-man core. It's a lot of money, and doesn't leave room for much else (if they stay cheap).
 

benhogan

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What higher end talent at center? Ayton? I think Hartenstein matches their team better than Ayton. Timelord maybe but I think the Thunder want someone healthier than that. LA isn't trading AD. Poetl give you that much more than Chet.

It is always easy to wave your hands and say higher end talent but there is only so much higher end talent in the league. Gets harder when you are looking for defensive center for a contender.
Hartenstein's /36 are solid and +/- On-Off are excellent
But $29M/yr for a guy who never was a starter in his career until MRob went down feels like an overpay.

arm waving? Danny is taking Markkanen calls...Lauri has been discussed around here ad nauseam, didn't think he needed to be mentioned...

Julius Randle & Jarrett Allen are also better. I would have kicked Poeltl's tires.

It's mostly about the use of $$$.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That's a good reminder, thanks— I'd forgotten that the Hayward trade cleared the pathway.

I like the signing for OKC as a strategic overpay that's worth the outlay considering fit and destination. But I do wonder if people are being too nonchalant in assuming it will all fit together seamlessly. There seems to be an assumption that goes like, "OKC was awesome last year but lacked rebounding... well, now they've added rebounding... let's start printing Finals tickets". Switching from the 5-out offense to a 4-1 could take a lot off the table, both in terms of clogging up space for SGA... and you never know whether moving Chet to the 4 is going to immediately unlock his inner Durant or rather turn him into KP-on-the-Mavs, where there's a lot of standing around in the corner. I think they will figure it out eventually and am willing to bet on Presti's instincts, but there could be a few rocky months in the early going.
I agree with you that I’m not certain sbout fit but OTOH, not much of a downside for OKC. Their growth as everyone noted is going to depend on internal growth, and worse comes to eorse, they can always move him with a pick or two.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hartenstein's /36 are solid and +/- On-Off are excellent
But $29M/yr for a guy who never was a starter in his career until MRob went down feels like an overpay.

arm waving? Danny is taking Markkanen calls...Lauri has been discussed around here ad nauseam, didn't think he needed to be mentioned...

Julius Randle & Jarrett Allen are also better. I would have kicked Poeltl's tires.

It's mostly about the use of $$$.
Hartenstein and Robinson were the Lively/Gafford combo for the Knicks. Splitting their minutes allowed each to exert maximum effort, for both teams, which analytics likely play a large role when you look back on how these in-game rotations looked. The two-man energy 5's is a powerful tool but Hartenstein has made huge leaps in each of his last two seasons. He's really fuckin good and most importantly knows his role and what he's best at. The annoying flash to paint, pump fake, lefty push shot is unstoppable with spacing. His BBIQ is off the charts.
 

benhogan

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Hartenstein and Robinson were the Lively/Gafford combo for the Knicks. Splitting their minutes allowed each to exert maximum effort, for both teams, which analytics likely play a large role when you look back on how these in-game rotations looked. The two-man energy 5's is a powerful tool but Hartenstein has made huge leaps in each of his last two seasons. He's really fuckin good and most importantly knows his role and what he's best at. The annoying flash to paint, pump fake, lefty push shot is unstoppable with spacing. His BBIQ is off the charts.
Yep, rostering multiple Centers, that exert max effort, while hedging injury risk is a very good approach to the 5
 

Kliq

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I think the lesson I'm taking away from this off-season is that under the new rules it is a lot harder for teams to improve, especially teams with expensive cores. You've got to gamble on players with obvious weaknesses (like Dallas signing Klay) and pay bigger money for less-established players (the Quickly deal was crazy, imo). At the moment, I think Philly is the only possible contender who got definitively better by adding George.

All of this is great news for the Celtics.
 

TomRicardo

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Hartenstein's /36 are solid and +/- On-Off are excellent
But $29M/yr for a guy who never was a starter in his career until MRob went down feels like an overpay.

arm waving? Danny is taking Markkanen calls...Lauri has been discussed around here ad nauseam, didn't think he needed to be mentioned...

Julius Randle & Jarrett Allen are also better. I would have kicked Poeltl's tires.

It's mostly about the use of $$$.
Markkanen was not going to solve OKC's interior problems. Hell it it would exacerbate them. In a conference with the Mavs, Wolves, Nuggets, hell even the Lakers it is going to be tough to win three playoff series when Chet and Markkanen are your front court even with all the backcourt talent. All that said, nothing stops them from trading for Markkanen (Utah needs contracts back or they would have to grab DeRozan on a Max just to avoid the salary floor) because at the end of the day getting Hartenstein did nothing to stop you from picking up Markkanen outside of getting closer to the inevitable second apron you will get to with Chet, SGA, and J Dubs on your team.

You can't just stack talent and hope it works. You need to have a philosophy then build around fixing the holes you have. Poetl would also have been a problem and Knicks weren't moving Randle for picks. If they need more interior help Allen will still be there.
 

Kliq

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OKC's problem for me in the post-season was they really need another playmaking offensive player outside of SGA. The younger guys really fell apart in the Dallas series, particularly Jalen Williams. Either you are counting on those guys to grow into being more reliable in that role (not a given) or you go out and get another accomplished player for that role. Adding Caruso and Hartenstein are nice pieces, but they don't solve that one crucial problem on offense.
 

the moops

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OKC's problem for me in the post-season was they really need another playmaking offensive player outside of SGA. The younger guys really fell apart in the Dallas series, particularly Jalen Williams. Either you are counting on those guys to grow into being more reliable in that role (not a given) or you go out and get another accomplished player for that role. Adding Caruso and Hartenstein are nice pieces, but they don't solve that one crucial problem on offense.
Who was available to them that would be in the closing lineup over SGA and Jalen though?
 

joe dokes

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I think the lesson I'm taking away from this off-season is that under the new rules it is a lot harder for teams to improve, especially teams with expensive cores. You've got to gamble on players with obvious weaknesses (like Dallas signing Klay) and pay bigger money for less-established players (the Quickly deal was crazy, imo). At the moment, I think Philly is the only possible contender who got definitively better by adding George.

All of this is great news for the Celtics.
And the 76ers are in theory only. I think teams with 34 yr olds as critical cogs should never be counted on.
 

InstaFace

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JBB already gone; guess this is it for Garland.

I'm kind of surprised Mitchell committed to Cleveland. I guess "take the extension and figure out the trade later" has become so popular and safe that it's always the default.
Why would you assume this is it for Garland? The two of them seem to work well enough together. Garland hustles more on D, but can't create his own shot as well as Mitchell can.

or are you assuming they're going to trade Garland for bigger positions of need? I'm sure he would fetch a lot of interest, but I'm not seeing the strategic direction from Cleveland if so. They seem to be buying into the idea that they have 2-3 more years of Mitchell to figure out how to build a contender around him.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Who was available to them that would be in the closing lineup over SGA and Jalen though?
Reuniting with Paul George was likely never on the table, but that's the only guy who would have addressed the shot-creation gap raised. I agree with the gap...and also with you that there were few ways to directly get at it.

Instead, they are improving depth/versatility and (really) counting on internal improvement which is quite reasonable
 

gammoseditor

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OKC’s problem was Chet and Giddey not being able to hit a shot. Even with that problem they came the closest in the west to beating Dallas. Caruso will shoot better than Giddey and as an added bonus he is a great defender. Chet’s bad shooting is likely a sample size problem. They also got beaten up in the paint at times and Hartenstein will help there. I think they are the clear favorites to win the west and our biggest threat.
 

Euclis20

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Who was available to them that would be in the closing lineup over SGA and Jalen though?
I would've dropped a ton of assets to get Markkanen. He gives them size and secondary scoring (they badly need both), and unlike most of their rotation is in his prime (while still being just 27). He's available, per everyone.
 

Justthetippett

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3,204
Reuniting with Paul George was likely never on the table, but that's the only guy who would have addressed the shot-creation gap raised. I agree with the gap...and also with you that there were few ways to directly get at it.

Instead, they are improving depth/versatility and (really) counting on internal improvement which is quite reasonable
I would absolutely buy stock in JDub's year over year improvement. Chet, I am less sure about but I agree it's very reasonable. Caruso should also have a compound effect on the shot creators. They've built something formidable, and it's likely still ascending.