You've got to think the roster move sometime today is going to be activating O'Neill and sending Heineman back down. Anything else you can project?
Project. . .that's tricky. To sort of type/think aloud here, I'd note that the 40 man dynamic is pretty important.
You've got 26 guys on the active roster. 13 pitchers, 13 hitters. If a guy goes on the 7/10/15 day IL, you can pull one of the remaining fourteen 40-men up from the minors to replace them, and send them down again without DFAing them if they have options.
If a guy goes on the 60, you can add a player to the 40 man. If a guy comes off the 60, you've got to remove a player (trade, DFA) from the 40 man.
All basic stuff.
But some of the 40-man spots are used to protect minor leagues from the rule 5 draft. So not all will hold viable ML players. Given the volatility re: pitching arms, you're probably going to favor more MiL pitchers than hitters in the remaining spots - certainly you want a couple of backup starters on the 40 man (Criswell/Uwasawa).
In consequence, at this point, they're out of position players on the 40 man.
They can add players to the by moving Walter (or the like) to the 60. They can free up a spot by DFAing players, like they did with Jacques to add Booser (essentially.)
The problem really becomes what to do with players who may have upside but aren't producing? Guys who you're OK losing forever if you DFA them to put another more appropriate MiL player (or acquisition) on the 40 man to deal with temporary injury.
The list of guys on the 40 who aren't nominal ML starters (e.g., Casas, Devers, Grissom):
Prospects: Will be kept but not in the promotion/injury relief equation.
W. Gonzalez (SP)
L. Perales (SP)
P: Ideally you want one or two emergency starters/longmen, and one or two relief arms. In 2024 more than ever it seems.
Criswell (SP) - up now
Uwasawa (SP)
Bernardino - LHR up now
Booser - LHR up now
Z. Kelly RHR
V. Guiterrez (RH project pitcher?)
plus
Mata 15 day IL (rehab soon?)
Walter 15 day IL (mystery injury)
C: You probably always need a AAA catcher on the 40 man in case of injury.
Heineman - stays on 40.
OF: Again, OF coverage. But all 5 guys are up right now. Yoshida (DH), O'Neill, Refsnyder, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu.
IF: Again, you need some IF coverage. Reyes is the nominal MLBer here, but I threw him in anyways. While somewhat fungable, all of these guys have upside. Dalbec's bat, Gonzalez's versatility, Hamilton's speed and nominal ability to play SS, Valdez's bat now that he can imitate a MLB 2B. The trouble is they're all injured or underperforming, so there's no clear hold 'em type player and no clear dump 'em type player - even by contrast.
Reyes plus
Dalbec
Gonzalez
Hamilton
Valdez
So the way I read the above?
On the 40 man pitching front, they have two emergency starters. They have 3 guys they're stretching out as 2 inning relievers who can go shorter if needed. (Plus one to add in Benetiz?) Gutierrez pitched an inning in relief in AAA, so he's probably in a relief role as well.
I kind of think that's where they want to be.
The least-upside guys are Mata and Walter. Mata's never thrown a ML pitch, is chronically injured, and has no options. So limited play value (upside), and limited trade value. Walter could be a useful pitcher but hasn't appeared in a MiL game yet due to injury. Maybe they're strategically not putting him on the 60 day IL yet.
The main problem is the IF. The best potential defender in the bunch (Gonzalez) is injured. Hamilton is raw and perhaps overmatched at SS. Valdez may have maxed out his limited defensive upside (kudos, though - really) and has a cold bat. Dalbec is mired in a slump. Making the problem worse is that Reyes has regressed, putting pressure on the club to find someone that works.
So do you try to add a player to the 40 by cutting Dalbec? Who may unfunk himself to hit averageish with power and is a passible 1B/3B? Do you cut Hamilton, who is still young? Do you cut Reyes who has ML experience? There's really no good option.
And then who do you put on? Kavadas?
Or do you just have patience and hope one or two of those 5 get it together?
***
Looking to the future: mid-season, Hendricks comes off the 40 and you have to DFA/trade one of those guys. Then maybe Story in Sept.? Although if the Sox are out of it, I don't know if he'd rush back anyway.
For 2025 though - Hendricks, Murphy, Giolito, Story.
If those 4 came back today, who would you cut? It does not really matter. But it illustrates why you might not want to put a future-upside player on the 40 at this moment. Unless they were ready now.
