2024 Lineup (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
There is no requirement that the 40-man has to remain full. If they want to release or trade a player, they're free to do so even if it leaves a roster spot open. What they can't do is move someone to the 60-day IL unless the 40-man is otherwise full and there is a corresponding move to fill the vacated spot immediately. So basically, they haven't moved Story to the 60-day IL yet because they don't have someone to take his place on the roster.
Yes this is a good point, and would give Raffy a day to only hit after the bang up yesterday. It's funny because I've already forgotten about Yoshida as an outfielder.
Ah, this is interesting, didn’t realize this. Thank you, explains why they haven’t made that move.
So early season starting lineup (depending on who you wanted to see in RF) has Grissom, Story, Devers and now O'Neill on the shelf (or playing injured now, Devers!) plus two starting pitchers down. Any other team have that much injury luck?
Welp. It's back to Hamilton at SS, Rafaela back in CF and Valdez at 2B (and batting 6th) tonight.
Duran LF
Devers 3B
Yoshida DH
Casas 1B
Abreu RF
Valdez 2B
Wong C
Hamilton SS
Rafaela CF
Duran LF
Devers 3B
Yoshida DH
Casas 1B
Abreu RF
Valdez 2B
Wong C
Hamilton SS
Rafaela CF
Sure. The Red Sox are not really an outlier in value or number of injuries right now. Also these injuries are not really that unlikely. The team was built with paper thin depth with known flags like Story.
There should've been no expectation for Story to stay healthy, and while O'Neill's is a fluke injury and not his usual soft tissue strain/pull, he's not an ironman either. It's bad luck that they're hurt, but it shouldn't be seen as either unexpected or abnormal. Same goes with starters no matter the history of durability; all pitchers break, especially in this era of max effort and high velocity/spin.
I think this lineup is pretty shaky. I would've gone with Hamilton at 2B, Rafaela at SS, Reyes at 3B, Yoshida in LF and Devers at DH tonight. Also would've swapped Casas and Devers in the lineup. That would make the IF defense better at 3 spots, albeit the OF would be a downgrade but we need to show the pitchers who are throwing pretty darn good that we can make the routine plays on ground balls.
Apparently the middle of the infield is built on an old Native American burial ground.
A gentle proactive reminder to keep focused on what we have and how the pieces fit together. Projecting/discussing individual player performance and lineups are of course absolutely germane to this, as is injury tracking/depth analysis, etc.
Injury speculation as it relates to team-building strategies and what should have been done (or should be done) should go to the multiple other threads we have for that. Those are totally valid topics, but don't quite fit here.
Injury speculation as it relates to team-building strategies and what should have been done (or should be done) should go to the multiple other threads we have for that. Those are totally valid topics, but don't quite fit here.
5 bonus internet points if you can elegantly tie in buildsubmarines.com.
OMG I spent like 15 minutes last week trying to find a cogent explanation of that meme and I still have no idea. Something to do with the sub that sank around the Titanic?
I did one of these in the pitching thread, and thought one might work here as well.
This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.
Catchers:
Infielders:
Trevor Story (60 day IL 4/6, shoulder, out for year)Romy Gonzalez (10 Day IL 4/13 wrist sprain)
Outfielders:
Tyler O'Neill (7 Day IL 4/16, concussion)
Minors (40 man)
There's currently a Bobby Dalbec discussion in the thread of that name. I'd rather not blindly replicate it here, but it seems that with Grissom or Gonzalez coming back, an IF decision will be made.
OF is a bit trickier. The pros and cons of Refsnyder have already been fully fleshed out, and the main question is which of the OFs might be sent down? Abreu has started cold but has seemed to come on recently. Rafaela's current approach with the bat is not good, and he's logged 3 errors in CF. So it may come down to a "who needs a head-clearing stretch at AAA" concern at the end of the day. But that kind of decision is still several days out (at least.)
This is a snapshot comparison from the opening day roster to today, not a complete record of ups and downs.
* is LHH, Bold is opening day roster, call-up replacements are indented, whether originally on the roster or not.
Catchers:
Wong
McGuire*
Infielders:
Triston Casas*
Enmanuel Valdez*
note: Vaughn Grissom IL/Delayed ST, rehabbing AAA, 14 days left.
David Hamilton*
Rafael Devers*
Pablo Reyes
Bobby Dalbec
Outfielders:
Masataka Yoshida*
Rob Refsnyder
Wilyer Abreu*
Jarren Duran*
Ceddanne Rafaela
Minors (40 man)
Tyler Heineman - Catcher (WOR)
There's currently a Bobby Dalbec discussion in the thread of that name. I'd rather not blindly replicate it here, but it seems that with Grissom or Gonzalez coming back, an IF decision will be made.
OF is a bit trickier. The pros and cons of Refsnyder have already been fully fleshed out, and the main question is which of the OFs might be sent down? Abreu has started cold but has seemed to come on recently. Rafaela's current approach with the bat is not good, and he's logged 3 errors in CF. So it may come down to a "who needs a head-clearing stretch at AAA" concern at the end of the day. But that kind of decision is still several days out (at least.)
I can definitely see Rafaela getting sent down if and when we feel OK about the shortstop position, and with the last couple lineups it seems like maybe Cora is there now. Rafaela probably understands that his arrival in Boston was a bit ahead of schedule after his hot spring, so it's not a terrible insult to have him do a short reset. But they probably wait until O'Neill is back.
I am not exactly sure what a Romy Gonzalez actually gets you beyond what David Hamilton or Pablo Reyes does. It is just bad AAAA "depth" you are throwing out to fill holes.
Potentially he gives you more coverage flexibility off the bench than a David Hamilton type. (Also, he may be a better defensive SS than Hamilton.) Check out his fielding logs: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonzal002rom
His offense was alleged sapped by a recurring shoulder injury that is now healed (?), so he might have a chance to be closer to an average ML bat than Reyes or Hamilton.
***
At the end of the day though, I'd agree with you these three seem fairly fungible in the abstract. The goal is to get two MIs and a backup out of the crew of:
Grissom, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Reyes, Valdez, perhaps Rafaela, (and whomever might be added to the 40 man in the future.)
I don't really have a dog in the fight of exactly which players fill which roles. But we need adequate defense and as good a bat on top of that as possible.
I might argue that Grissom seems the best prospect, and should therefore be given the longest leash. But other than that, if someone grabs a job through performance, more power to them.
Yeah, the SS situation is really complicating this.
As far as O'Neill returning in 4 days or so - concussions are tricky. But he was working out in the field today, throwing and catching, so that's promising.
I think when O’Neil returns they have to decide if they want Rafaela to play CF or get ABs in the majors. Because it can’t be both. Either send him to AAA or play him mostly at SS
I have to take issue with Rafa's alleged errors. The missed catch was something he obviously botched, but the other two are really more other people's mistakes.
Casas fails the catch: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=e96dbd81-2129-44db-a3ee-9dc40c337fca&videoType=AWAY
Abreu fails the catch:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=af79abdc-444b-4d13-afcb-3720820d0bce&videoType=AWAY
Point taken. In today's gamethread I had asked someone to consider starting a 2024 Defense thread on the main board. If they don't, would you? Savant video links would be excellent there I think, in part to understand what's happening. Not all errors are scored as errors. Not all scored errors are equal.
View: https://twitter.com/soxnotes/status/1781475280999072040?s=46
Noticeably absent from the list: 2018
1. Regardless of who the error was charged to, that's a very shitty throw. A MLB outfielder grabbing a ball at that depth in the outfield is supposed to be able to hit a cutoff man standing more than 60 feet away from home plate. It's short and not straight. Yes, Casas probably should be able to come up w/it.
2. Poor scoring decision. Either a double or a single and an error on Abreu. Trying to pick up a ball under those circumstances is 50-50.
An updated look at the lineup so far.
In the small sample size wars, Rob Refsnyder is winning!
Good signs: Wilyer above a wrc+ of 100 now, and the K rate is down to 32% from a high of 40%+. You can look at this and see how there could be a really good lineup in there if they can just get Wilyer going and O'Neill and Devers healthy. Grissom obviously coming back at the end of the month would be huge too, if he can be the wrc+ of around 110 that he's been so far in the majors.
Bad signs? Ceddanne finally homered last night, but the numbers are still horrific. He and Valdez have been a major bummer so far. But both of them had XBH's last night, so maybe they'll break out soon. They, along with Devers, are suffering from some of the lowest BABIP's on the team.
In the small sample size wars, Rob Refsnyder is winning!
Good signs: Wilyer above a wrc+ of 100 now, and the K rate is down to 32% from a high of 40%+. You can look at this and see how there could be a really good lineup in there if they can just get Wilyer going and O'Neill and Devers healthy. Grissom obviously coming back at the end of the month would be huge too, if he can be the wrc+ of around 110 that he's been so far in the majors.
Bad signs? Ceddanne finally homered last night, but the numbers are still horrific. He and Valdez have been a major bummer so far. But both of them had XBH's last night, so maybe they'll break out soon. They, along with Devers, are suffering from some of the lowest BABIP's on the team.
I think it’s important right now to make Rafaela the full time SS regardless of his future.
With RFsnyder back and zO’Neill soon- using Abreu, Duran and those two playing for matchups will be a good offense eventually. Obviously O’Neill won’t sustain this, but Abreu is looking better and I’m starting to believe in Duran the Unicorn.
It’s not the optimal OF alignment but defensively it’ll be at least average.
Long term I always thought of Rafaela as a super sub if the best future happens we’ll see Anthony and hopefully Bleis with Duran and Abreu still in the mix.
With RFsnyder back and zO’Neill soon- using Abreu, Duran and those two playing for matchups will be a good offense eventually. Obviously O’Neill won’t sustain this, but Abreu is looking better and I’m starting to believe in Duran the Unicorn.
It’s not the optimal OF alignment but defensively it’ll be at least average.
Long term I always thought of Rafaela as a super sub if the best future happens we’ll see Anthony and hopefully Bleis with Duran and Abreu still in the mix.
The thing that has me believing in Duran is the lowered K rate. Striking out just 20% of the time while still hitting the ball hard around 40% of the time is a recipe for success. That's a drop in HH% of 8% over last year, but still, good enough with his speed to eke out a lot of hits.
We're nearing 100 PA for him, which is a pretty substantial sample size for strikeouts (not in general, of course). The SLG% is way down, but I suspect he'll go on another line drive bender, too.
A lot of Duran's slugging was turning singles into doubles last year. Outfielders are probably playing him a little in and making sure to get the ball back in the infield this year.
Yeah, I remember as much. Could be a combination of the two things. 8% less hard hits is not a small difference, after all.
I agree. Over the past 5+ seasons we've seen a switch in thinking from what had been a traditional 3-4 type hitter (or best hitter) moving up into the 2 hole to increase the likelihood of an additional AB. But I think in order for that to work out we're going to need to see more consistency out of the hitters behind him because ATM he seems to the guy more likely to drive others in. That said I'm fine with the current version of Tyler O'Neill hitting in the 2 hole when he gets back. Something like Duran, O'Neill, Casas, Devers, Grissom, Abreu, Wong, Yoshida and Rafaela might look nice when we get a couple of guys back.
Some facts:
- Boston has 28 HR as of this morning, second to Baltimore.
- The team OBP is a touch below average at .302.
- The team’s 93 runs scored are 14th in MLB, right in the middle.
- The team’s BABIP is .279.
Looking ahead to the next 6 games against the Guardians and Cubs, the Sox are scheduled to face 5 RHP and Imanaga. There is no way Dalbec or Reyes should be starting at 1B for those games, possibly Refsnyder since he has been hot, (but not a true 1B and traditionally not good against RHP) and Rafaela has to stay at SS, and the OF would then be O'Neill, Duran, Abreu. I think they'll call up Kavadas for either Heineman or Hamilton, and get him on the 40 man by putting someone on the 60 day IL.
ATM it seems that the only realistic options for 60 IL might be Mata (I've no idea what his status is) and Casas should they if/when they determine it's necessary.
I'm also not sure what's going on with Brandon Walter. He was put on the 7-day injured list back in late March with a left rotator cuff strain, and it's been already almost a month. I wouldn't be surprised if he got moved to the 60-day IL either.
The only other options, as I see it, is DFA'ing Bobby, but that would leave them thin in the Artist Formerly Known as Right-Handed Power department.
If this looks like a season ending thing, I would hope/think an aggressive approach to finding an external replacement is on the table. The good start, outstanding performance of the pitching staff, and the pending return of other key players from injury all should mandate being committed to remaining in contention. If it’s more like he’s out until the ASB, could probably live with patching it up with Dalbec/other internal options, or maybe a more modest trade for depth. Obviously, fingers crossed/bated breath for later today.
Poor Bobby. There has to be a DFA in his future I would think. I would put Rafaela at SS for the foreseeable future. That would make the outfield Duran/Oneil/ with Abreu/Refs in a platoon.
SSS but I thought Valdez was better than this but he had a bad day at the plate yesterday.
I guess the question for the Red Sox medium term is who's on first.
Niko Kavadas has a .415 OBP and .912 OPS over 267 games and 1109 PA in 4 minor league seasons. It seems worth it to see what he'd look like over the next week while facing 5 RHP in the next 6 games. Bobby D could pinch hit against LHP later in game and play an acceptable 1B. Lineup could look something like this:
Duran CF
Devers 3B
O'Neill LF
Abreu RF
Yoshida DH
Wong C
Kavadas 1B
Valdez 2B
Rafaela SS
Duran CF
Devers 3B
O'Neill LF
Abreu RF
Yoshida DH
Wong C
Kavadas 1B
Valdez 2B
Rafaela SS
Kavadas is really a three true outcomes guy. BB% of 20% at almost every stop in the minor leagues (which he has in common with Wilyer). But where Abreu only K'd about 20% in AAA, Kavadas floor is the 30% he's posted so far this year.
Still and all, his K rate in AAA is no worse than Bobby's ever was, and he walks a ton more. If they can do the 40 man roster tango well enough, he's far more available right now than Cron or Belt would be.
The 40 man doesn't currently show Walter as being on the IL. Moving on from Hamilton in some way might also do the trick.
This was from last week re: Mata and Murphy
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1780713013399654828
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisHenrique/status/1780713013399654828
Yep he'll strike out a bunch. But those potential BB's means he'd make opposing pitcher throw a lot of pitches in theory. With Casas down, isn't this exactly why you have a guy like him at AAA? If he isn't called up in a situation like this, at least to see what he may look like against ML pitching, than why do you even have him?
Oh, I'm not disagreeing, sorry if that wasn't clear. He seems as good an option as any with the infield in the state it's in. But theyve got an off day so they have time to make some roster moves.