2023 QB Carousel

DanoooME

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Rodgers contract looks like a nightmare--he's owed 58 million cash this year and a lot in 2024--so if you're not sure he's staying more than a year or if he doesn't restructure you'll have major cap problems when he leaves.
From OTC:
What Happens if the Packers Trade Aaron Rodgers?
Rodgers does not have a no trade clause in his contract so he could be traded to a team as well. The timing of the option should give the Packers all the way until the end of training camp to move him. The cap charge here would depend on when he was traded. If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024. This assumes that the Packers did not exercise the option before the trade. If the option is exercised then the trade number spikes to nearly $100 million. There should be no need to exercise the option until the last possible day.

For the team acquiring Rodgers they would be on the hook for the salary for the year. The cap charge would be $59,515,000 if they do not exercise his option and $15.79 million if they were to exercise the option. Rodgers has an injury guarantee of $49.25 million for 2024 but that does not become fully guaranteed until 5 days after the 2023 Super Bowl. If Rodgers was cut after 2023 it would cost the team $43.725 million on the 2024 cap. If he retired they could split that as $14.575 million in 2024 and $29.15 million in 2025 using a similar June 2nd date as mentioned above in the retirement option.
A team can be committed for two years and not be hurt too badly.
 

Shelterdog

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From OTC:
A team can be committed for two years and not be hurt too badly.
It's kind of moot because he'll restructure but I don't think I agree. If he plays one year you pay him 60 million and the cap hits are 15 million this year 45 million next year. If he plays only two you pay him 60 this year, basically 50 million in 2024, and the cap hits are 15/30 and then 60 spread out over a year or two depending on how he leaves. That cap hit the year after he leaves is a pretty big one.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
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If he’s meh and goes full Kyrie and is extremely petulant, it won’t go well. But I think there is a decent chance of a year 1 honeymoon period so I don’t expect anything major. There are a lot of good pieces on this offense so if Rodgers is fully bought in, they could be quite good. In any event, it’ll be fun to watch.
Rodgers' signing with the Jets will kick off a period of irrational exuberance among Jets fans and media. Making the playoffs will be insufficient. Given his age, current three-year decline, and inexperience with NYC-level scrutiny, I put the odds of a train wreck at no less than 50%.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Rodgers is also #2 on the ESPN nut juggling power rankings behind Lebron, so it'll be a circus far beyond the metro NY area. Ol Roge and the boys on Park Avenue high fiving if this comes to pass.
 

BusRaker

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The low success rate of highly drafted quarterbacks has sure done wonders to the QB free agency market. Rodgers on the Jets and Brady out of retirement would sure make for an interesting 6 divisional games for the Pats though the chances of both of those things happening are pretty close to zero (mostly due to the later). I would welcome seeing Judon destroy Rodgers a few times a year though.

Too bad Bill is too smart to trade/spend the farm for Rodgers. That would also be entertaining
 

Shelterdog

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Rodgers' signing with the Jets will kick off a period of irrational exuberance among Jets fans and media. Making the playoffs will be insufficient. Given his age, current three-year decline, and inexperience with NYC-level scrutiny, I put the odds of a train wreck at no less than 50%.
As a random aside, a periodic update that NY fans are insane. The Giants fan in my office informed me that Eli is actually the better Manning brother because of his superior arm (Eli's arm is a bit stronger I guess), and that the only reason ELi's career wasn't better is that he had twenty consecutive years of bad GMs. (I mentioned that JPP and Osi and Justin Tuck weren't bad and played a big part in two super bowl wins, Beckham wasn't terrible but didn't make a dent) Just odd to meet a fan knowledgeable enough to remember the David Wilson pick yet so frankly nuts. One particular oddity was that he thinks the Giants have been bad because of obvious busted picks were they Giants "deviated from consensus" to pick David WIlson, Erek Flowers, Eli Apple, and Engram so the GM could show how smart he was and should have picked respectively Isiah Pead, Andrus Peat, Vernon Hargreaves, and David Nkoku. Which is a remarkable feat of memory but doesn't seem to be a drafting mistake that makes a bit of difference.
 

scott bankheadcase

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As a random aside, a periodic update that NY fans are insane. The Giants fan in my office informed me that Eli is actually the better Manning brother because of his superior arm (Eli's arm is a bit stronger I guess), and that the only reason ELi's career wasn't better is that he had twenty consecutive years of bad GMs. (I mentioned that JPP and Osi and Justin Tuck weren't bad and played a big part in two super bowl wins, Beckham wasn't terrible but didn't make a dent) Just odd to meet a fan knowledgeable enough to remember the David Wilson pick yet so frankly nuts. One particular oddity was that he thinks the Giants have been bad because of obvious busted picks were they Giants "deviated from consensus" to pick David WIlson, Erek Flowers, Eli Apple, and Engram so the GM could show how smart he was and should have picked respectively Isiah Pead, Andrus Peat, Vernon Hargreaves, and David Nkoku. Which is a remarkable feat of memory but doesn't seem to be a drafting mistake that makes a bit of difference.
I'm not a Giants fan, but I think I could write this post about every fan-base in the league, definitely including the Patriots (and Niners, who are my team).

Fans, on the whole, are dumb.
 

Shelterdog

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I'm not a Giants fan, but I think I could write this post about every fan-base in the league, definitely including the Patriots (and Niners, who are my team).

Fans, on the whole, are dumb.
We've got folks still complaining about Chad Jackson so sure. But Eli Manning, best ever is certianly a take. As is "if only we'd taken Vernon hargreaves instead of Eli Apple."
 

Ed Hillel

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Rodgers contract looks like a nightmare--he's owed 58 million cash this year and a lot in 2024--so if you're not sure he's staying more than a year or if he doesn't restructure you'll have major cap problems when he leaves.
It’s not a nightmare for a team trading for him, it’s a dream. His base salary the next two seasons is 3.4 million combined. It’s Green Bay who will be taking a hellish 102 million dollar dead cap hit if they trade him.

Unless I’m missing something?

Edit - I am
 
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Shelterdog

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It’s not a nightmare for a team trading for him, it’s a dream. His base salary the next two seasons is 3.4 million combined. It’s Green Bay who will be taking a hellish 102 million dollar dead cap hit if they trade him.

Unless I’m missing something?
Yes, the 102 goes to the new team who actually pays those amounts; that won't be GB's hit. GB does get tagged with something like 30 million for what's left of his signing bonus.
 

Ed Hillel

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Yes, the 102 goes to the new team who actually pays those amounts; that won't be GB's hit. GB does get tagged with something like 30 million for what's left of his signing bonus.
Ohhhh, it’s an Option Bonus. I thought it was a Signing Bonus.

Yeah, that contract sucks. The Jets are up against it salary cap wise, too. They’ll likely have to sacrifice future seasons to go for it with him now, give him some heavy guarantees on the back end.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yes, the 102 goes to the new team who actually pays those amounts; that won't be GB's hit. GB does get tagged with something like 30 million for what's left of his signing bonus.
yeah, OTC isn't perfect, but pretty good and this is where they have it:
https://overthecap.com/looking-ahead-to-the-packers-options-with-aaron-rodgers

$40M or so cap hit for a pre-June 1 trade to GB.
Post June 1 would be 16M this year 24-25M next

For the acquiring team:
$59.15M cap number if the option isn't picked up.
If it is about $16M, but a bunch more guaranteed money.
Cost to cut him after 2023.... $44M
 

BigJimEd

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Take a look at Byron Jones. Read that article from Calvin Ridley the other day. Countless others.
I'll never doubt a player who is injured. Organizations don't care a bit about a player's health.
 

luckiestman

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Bro that’s a lot. Shit man, is that for Bryce. Why not sign Lamar. I get that Bryce is cheaper.
 

luckiestman

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Chicago better hope Fields works out. They are loaded with cash and draft capital now.
 

JM3

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I like that for the Bears. Looks like they basically get DJ Moore on a 3/$52m, Panthers 1st next year should be a high pick again, etc.
 

luckiestman

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I like that for the Bears. Looks like they basically get DJ Moore on a 3/$52m, Panthers 1st next year should be a high pick again, etc.
My initial reaction is I don’t like it for either team. But I don’t watch practice or scout college players. If they are in love with Fields then I like it for the Bears.
 

JM3

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My initial reaction is I don’t like it for either team. But I don’t watch practice or scout college players. If they are in love with Fields then I like it for the Bears.
I would take Fields over every QB in this draft - with the caveat that he of course has 2 years less of cost control. This gives him an elite weapon & lets them fill in some extra holes with a lot of draft capital.
 

luckiestman

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I would take Fields over every QB in this draft - with the caveat that he of course has 2 years less of cost control.
I don’t see it. I like the Bears’ uniform so good luck to them but I would rather Stroud and if I could convince myself that Young isn’t too small, I’d also rather have him.
 

Ed Hillel

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I think that's honestly pretty normal compensation to move from 9 to 1. We've seen worse.
 

Cellar-Door

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My initial reaction is I don’t like it for either team. But I don’t watch practice or scout college players. If they are in love with Fields then I like it for the Bears.
The Bears weren't taking a QB, so that's a really good trade. They probably wanted to stay top 4 or 5 to get one of the top 2 non-QBs, but at that price going to 9 is worth it, now they just need to build out their O-line.
 

Cellar-Door

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I agree with everything you say after this. I don’t understand why they aren’t taking a QB though.
I wasn't making a call on whether they should, just that they had made it clear they weren't.

I think they like Fields, and I think there is a lot to like there. He's an absurd weapon on the ground, and he showed improvement and flashes in the passing game despite by far the worst talent around him of any offense in the league last year. I mean if people here think Mac's supporting talent was bad, I think there's a good case every single Patriots offensive starter was better than his Bear's counterpart (maybe Jones over a hobbled Brown?)

Edit- I also think they recognize that they have the least talent in the league and that they need quantity of good picks to rebuild, and a new QB would be in the same bad spot as Fields was.
 

JM3

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I don’t see it. I like the Bears’ uniform so good luck to them but I would rather Stroud and if I could convince myself that Young isn’t too small, I’d also rather have him.
It might be a me issue, but I'm just not that into this QB class. & like CD said, the situation around Fields has been a disaster. I think there's something legit there & still wish the Pats had traded up for him when they had the chance. But that is a very dead horse.
 

67YAZ

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Next year the Bears have the Panthers’ first round pick, which should be high, and their own. If Fields ain’t the guy, they’ll have ammo to go after Williams, Maye, or whoever else emerges in the next 12 months.
 

Super Nomario

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Next year the Bears have the Panthers’ first round pick, which should be high, and their own. If Fields ain’t the guy, they’ll have ammo to go after Williams, Maye, or whoever else emerges in the next 12 months.
If those guys are what they're cracked up to be, unlikely teams in position to draft them are going to pass.
 

67YAZ

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If those guys are what they're cracked up to be, unlikely teams in position to draft them are going to pass.
Not if it’s a team still building around around a young QB…like Carolina, who are going to ride out $48m in dead cap this season and break in a rookie QB. Sounds like a recipe for another top pick.
 

Jimbodandy

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Looks like an awesome deal for the Bears until they draft a TE, 2 ILB, and a punt returner with the haul and the offense still blows because it's Chicago and that's what they do.
 

johnmd20

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Looks like an awesome deal for the Bears until they draft a TE, 2 ILB, and a punt returner with the haul and the offense still blows because it's Chicago and that's what they do.
It really is amazing when you look at Bears history and you realize their best QB of ALL TIME is Jay Cutler.
 

Awesome Fossum

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Yeah, when your season high in yards passing per game is 155.8, you just can't be compared to modern QBs.

Oh wait, that's Fields. Luckman broke 200 twice.
 

nighthob

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Are we really counting pre-Korean war seasons like it was even the same sport?
It’s more a commentary on how crushingly mediocre Chicago QBs have been. Sid might be the only QB in franchise history that can say that the Bears won because of him rather than in spite of him.
 

snowmanny

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It’s more a commentary on how crushingly mediocre Chicago QBs have been. Sid might be the only QB in franchise history that can say that the Bears won because of him rather than in spite of him.
He can’t possibly say that