2023 QB Carousel

trekfan55

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We have a coaching thread and Ithink we should also have a QB thread.

What teams need a QB going into the 2023 season?

I have
Raiders
Colts
Commanders
Saints (Winston lost his job to injury and Dalton is not it)

Plus some question marks
Jets? (Is Wilson gone? Is White it?)
Dolphins (Tua should reevaluate his career)
Patriots?
Bucs?

Adding to all this is possible retirements/QBs leaving such as Aaron Rodgers constant dance.

It is mostly speculation until FA formally begins but let's have at it
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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BB might bring in someone via draft or FA and declare open competition in camp, although I tend to think the job is still Jones's to lose--given all the other issues. If he keeps the job, though, I can see him getting benched during the season and taking a look at whoever else is available.

I don't see the Cards getting out from under Kyler's contract anytime soon. Unless he's well and truly broken, he's the guy for the time being.
 

Saints Rest

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We have a coaching thread and Ithink we should also have a QB thread.

What teams need a QB going into the 2023 season?

I have
Raiders
Colts
Commanders
Saints (Winston lost his job to injury and Dalton is not it)

Plus some question marks
Jets? (Is Wilson gone? Is White it?)
Dolphins (Tua should reevaluate his career)
Patriots?
Bucs?

Adding to all this is possible retirements/QBs leaving such as Aaron Rodgers constant dance.

It is mostly speculation until FA formally begins but let's have at it
Probably also makes sense to add the likely FAs and speculated trade targets (e.g. Carr).
(Go here for the comprehensive list.)
  • Lamar
  • TB12
  • Jimmy G
  • Geno
  • Daniel Jones
  • Matt Ryan
  • Derek Carr
  • Jacoby Brissett
  • Baker
  • Sam Darnold
 

AB in DC

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That's a lot more potential starters than we usually see.

If those guys all make free agency then that's at least nine teams that need a QB

Colts
Washington
Panthers
Texans
Raiders (Carr FA, not coming back)
Ravens (Lamar FA)
Bucs (TB12 FA)
Seahawks (Geno FA)
Giants (DJones FA)
possibly Dolphins (Tua head injury)
possibly Saints (Winston back issue)
possibly Jets

And that's not counting the Pats or any other team that might want to upgrade. or have cap casualties (Tannehill?)
 
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E5 Yaz

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That's a lot more potential starters than we usually see.

If those guys all make FA then that's at least eight teams that need a QB

Raiders (Carr FA)
Colts
Washington
Panthers
Ravens (Lamar FA)
Bucs (TB12 FA)
Seahawks (Geno FA)
Giants (Jones FA)
possibly Dolphins (Tua head injury)
possibly Saints (Winston back issue)
possibly Jets
Texans
 

Beomoose

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BB might bring in someone via draft or FA and declare open competition in camp, although I tend to think the job is still Jones's to lose--given all the other issues. If he keeps the job, though, I can see him getting benched during the season and taking a look at whoever else is available.

I don't see the Cards getting out from under Kyler's contract anytime soon. Unless he's well and truly broken, he's the guy for the time being.
I disagree with this read on Bill. I don't think there's any QB available who he would sign into some kind of "open competition" situation. Either he signs another known quantity backup for Mac, who could take over the season if Mac really face-plants, or he dives in on a new starter and trades Mac to someone who's in dire need but doesn't have the cap space for better.
 

Phil Plantier

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That's a lot more potential starters than we usually see.

If those guys all make free agency then that's at least nine teams that need a QB


Ravens (Lamar FA)
Seahawks (Geno FA)
Giants (DJones FA)
Ravens will franchise Lamar, right? And I think Geno and DJones will re-sign.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Ravens will franchise Lamar, right? And I think Geno and DJones will re-sign.
Geno's FA situation is going to be interesting to watch unfold. I don't doubt that he re-signs with Seattle, but if I'm them I'm hoping there's a QB I like still available at the #5 pick.
 

Cellar-Door

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We have a coaching thread and Ithink we should also have a QB thread.

What teams need a QB going into the 2023 season?

I have
Raiders
Colts
Commanders
Saints (Winston lost his job to injury and Dalton is not it)

Plus some question marks
Jets? (Is Wilson gone? Is White it?)
Dolphins (Tua should reevaluate his career)
Patriots?
Bucs?

Adding to all this is possible retirements/QBs leaving such as Aaron Rodgers constant dance.

It is mostly speculation until FA formally begins but let's have at it
Add the Falcons to the definite list.
Other potential spots:
Titans
49ers
Rams (Stafford situation seems fluid)
Texans
 

DanoooME

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Geno's FA situation is going to be interesting to watch unfold. I don't doubt that he re-signs with Seattle, but if I'm them I'm hoping there's a QB I like still available at the #5 pick.
If Geno wants to maximize his money, he'll be leaving Seattle. Pete's not going to pay jack squat for a QB. He's shown that before Russell became Russell and I don't think that changes now. It's not like Geno has turned into Mahomes. He's a mid-range guy at this point. Signing him for any significant money puts them on the same treadmill as the Raiders with Carr and the Vikings with Cousins, and that's a best-case scenario.

All I can see them doing is a transition tag-type deal for one year, or a cheap two-year deal and draft someone this year or next. Personally the only QB in this draft I'd be happy with is Young. If they have a QB they like, they'll probably keep the pick and get him. If not, I expect a trade down for a haul.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Ravens will franchise Lamar, right?
My best guess is that they'll look to trade him first and if they can't then yes. I heard a clip from Harbaugh yesterday where he was basically asked if he thought that Lamar might be sitting out because of his lack of long-term contract. That's the kind of question you answer with an unequivocal no, but Harbaugh didn't do that. He said something like 'yeah that's a good question - you never want to think something like that could be in play but that's a question some people inside the organization are asking'. It was pretty shocking to me. I think each side is frustrated with each other to the point that a trade makes sense.
 

Ferm Sheller

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If Geno wants to maximize his money, he'll be leaving Seattle. Pete's not going to pay jack squat for a QB. He's shown that before Russell became Russell and I don't think that changes now. It's not like Geno has turned into Mahomes. He's a mid-range guy at this point. Signing him for any significant money puts them on the same treadmill as the Raiders with Carr and the Vikings with Cousins, and that's a best-case scenario.
Yeah, but I have a feeling that there won't be a particularly big market for Geno and that Seattle won't have to break the bank to re-sign him. He's 32 and has been a back up for almost a decade. I know that he's coming off a great season, but he just seems like too much of a risk to command top dollar. All it takes is one team, though.
 

trekfan55

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Add the Falcons to the definite list.
Other potential spots:
Titans
49ers
Rams (Stafford situation seems fluid)
Texans
49ers should not be on the list.

It's either Purdy or Lance which are both under rookie deals.

Agree on Texans and Falcons, both teams need QBs. We do not know what Stafford's situtaion is yet, but do they give Baker a shot? Would he stay as a backup?
 
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Ferm Sheller

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49ers should notbe on the list.

It's either Purdy or Lance which are both under rookie deals.

Agree on Texans and Falcons, both teams need QBs. We do not know what Stafford's situtaion is yet, but do they give Baker a shot? Would he stay as a backup?
And the Panthers should be added, for sure.
 

Cellar-Door

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49ers should notbe on the list.

It's either Purdy or Lance which are both under rookie deals.

Agree on Texans and Falcons, both teams need QBs. We do not know what Stafford's situtaion is yet, but do they give Baker a shot? Would he stay as a backup?
We'll see. Lance has barely played, Purdy has serious Nick Foles vibes. That's a title contender next year and I would expect them to kick the tires on Brady, maybe Carr if he's cut, and Rodgers.
 
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If Geno wants to maximize his money, he'll be leaving Seattle. Pete's not going to pay jack squat for a QB. He's shown that before Russell became Russell and I don't think that changes now. It's not like Geno has turned into Mahomes. He's a mid-range guy at this point. Signing him for any significant money puts them on the same treadmill as the Raiders with Carr and the Vikings with Cousins, and that's a best-case scenario.

All I can see them doing is a transition tag-type deal for one year, or a cheap two-year deal and draft someone this year or next. Personally the only QB in this draft I'd be happy with is Young. If they have a QB they like, they'll probably keep the pick and get him. If not, I expect a trade down for a haul.
This is a tough one. Geno was good but they still barely backed into the playoffs, and I really doubt he’s ever going to QB a team with a legit shot at a title. The opportunity to be near the top of the draft is so rare for good teams/organizations that they might want to take advantage of that if Young or Stroud are available. A transition year with Geno then makes sense.
 

scott bankheadcase

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We'll see. Lance has barely played, Purdy has serious Nick Foles vibes. That's a title contender next year and I would expect them to kick the tires on Brady, maybe Carr if he's cut, and Rodgers.
I hate the "Purdy is Nick Foles" arguments out there. I can just as easily say Purdy is clearly Tom Brady.

He's absolutely neither. We'll see in the playoffs, but I completely agree with Trek. Trey Lance or Brock Purdy will be the starting QB next season.
 

Cellar-Door

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I hate the "Purdy is Nick Foles" arguments out there. I can just as easily say Purdy is clearly Tom Brady.

He's absolutely neither. We'll see in the playoffs, but I completely agree with Trek. Trey Lance or Brock Purdy will be the starting QB next season.
He could be sure, I'm not saying he is Foles, I'm saying that a brief run on a title contending team coming in for an injured player is not something you should make many plans on, and I think SF is too good/smart to do that. For the same reasons they held onto Jimmy G, they'll see what the market looks like on a proven top QB. Now, likely they end up going back to Lance, but they'll shop around, it's their MO. If they were less good elsewhere... sure they probably don't, but they are elite outside QB. Maybe the win the SB this year, in that case Purdy probably gets first crack at the job, but if not... well that will make another disappointing season end, and there will be some pressure to fix the QB situation. This is a front office and coaching staff that has been hunting for QB upgrades for several years, if they can get one they'll take it and then figure out if they can move one of the young guys to recoup some cost.
 

Oil Can Dan

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While I don't know all there is to know about his situation, I can't believe Lamar Jackson didn't even travel with his team and attend their playoff game. That coupled with Harbaugh's comments earlier in the week just makes it seem like a divorce is inevitable here. Also, that statement he put out about his health - that is not something that players do and Harbaugh did not seem pleased with that.

What team out there is willing to give Lamar something approaching Deshaun Watson money *and* trade a bunch of picks for him? I wouldn't give him anything close to that contract if he came free...
 

BigJimEd

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While I don't know all there is to know about his situation, I can't believe Lamar Jackson didn't even travel with his team and attend their playoff game. That coupled with Harbaugh's comments earlier in the week just makes it seem like a divorce is inevitable here. Also, that statement he put out about his health - that is not something that players do and Harbaugh did not seem pleased with that.
That's what players need to do when the team is hanging them out to dry. F Harbaugh and good for Lamar. All he needs to do is ask RG III how playing through an injury can derail a career.
 

Phil Plantier

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I wouldn't give him anything close to that contract if he came free...
Why not? Because of the way he's handled this year? Because you think he's no longer an MVP-level talent?

Seems to me he'd be worth 2-4 wins. I think lots of teams would want that.
 

lexrageorge

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That's what players need to do when the team is hanging them out to dry. F Harbaugh and good for Lamar. All he needs to do is ask RG III how playing through an injury can derail a career.
I dunno, the Ravens locker room seems to think that Jackson could have played. NFL players have played through far worse in playoff games than Jackson's injury.
 

Oil Can Dan

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Why not? Because of the way he's handled this year? Because you think he's no longer an MVP-level talent?

Seems to me he'd be worth 2-4 wins. I think lots of teams would want that.
It's a lot of commitment for a player that hasn't finished either of the last two years. And I'd be very concerned that his running ability is likely to deteriorate quickly, and without that I don't think he's very good.
 

glennhoffmania

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It's a lot of commitment for a player that hasn't finished either of the last two years. And I'd be very concerned that his running ability is likely to deteriorate quickly, and without that I don't think he's very good.
I agree with you. I wouldn't empty the vault, both in terms of cash and picks, for a guy whose value is mostly due to his mobility. He's not a great passer. Another lower body injury or two could turn him into a mediocre QB.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Really? I saw pieces that said Ravens players indicated that Jackson was at 50%
Sammy Watkins made some comments the other day, must be what folks are running with as representative of widespread player dissatisfaction with Lamar. Not seeing that.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/13/sammy-watkins-hopes-lamar-jackson-decides-to-play/amp/

Lamar’s statement was pretty specific as to the nature of, and ongoing issues with, his knee injury, and I’ve not seen/heard his account rebutted in any way by the team.
 

RedOctober3829

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What does Seattle do this offseason? Geno Smith had a great year, but is he the future? They have the 5th pick in the draft so now would be an ideal time to draft either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? Do they use the 5th pick to try to do a Lamar Jackson trade?
 

trekfan55

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Why are we talking draft picks for Lamar Jackson. He is a FA. Franchise tag?

Let's see how that divorce happens if it does.

The Ravens locker room is not a good place right now though, so I can see Lamar wanting out.
 

johnmd20

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While I don't know all there is to know about his situation, I can't believe Lamar Jackson didn't even travel with his team and attend their playoff game. That coupled with Harbaugh's comments earlier in the week just makes it seem like a divorce is inevitable here. Also, that statement he put out about his health - that is not something that players do and Harbaugh did not seem pleased with that.

What team out there is willing to give Lamar something approaching Deshaun Watson money *and* trade a bunch of picks for him? I wouldn't give him anything close to that contract if he came free...
Lamar has gotten worse every year since his MVP season. He's also always hurt and/or sick and his play style certainly makes it likely he will be hurt again.

And him just pulling a Kawhi and bailing on the entire end of season because he negotiated his situation on his own, and poorly, indicates that whoever signs him is going to be disappointed. It would be crazy to throw a huge guaranteed deal at him.
 

nattysez

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The Cardinals can't move on from Kyler this off-season. You could arguably put them on the "needs" list because they likely will need a new starting QB for most of next season due to Kyler's injury, but the smart play for their new GM is probably to tank 2023 to start rebuilding.

The Falcons just used a third-round pick on a QB -- I think they're going to let Ridder develop.

The Niners are not signing another starting QB. They don't have the FA $ to pay for a big-time QB and they seem happy with Lance and Purdy. They might bring James G or another vet backup in just because Lance can't be trusted and Purdy could still turn into a pumpkin.

I agree with the sentiment that the Ravens are going to let Lamar walk. Overpaying Lamar seems very Saints-y to me. Or maybe the Commies return to the old Snyder days and sign him.

I think we can divide the NFL into these categories:

Teams that are arguably close to winning and would make sense for TB12:
Raiders
Dolphins
Jets

Teams that may be able to contend in their division with a good new QB but don't make sense for TB12:
Washington
Panthers
Saints
Ravens
Titans

Teams that are starting over and likely will focus on developing a young QB:
Colts
Texans
Bucs
Rams
Atlanta

Teams that should re-sign their FA QB:
Giants
Seahawks

Teams that are stuck with their high-priced QB:
Cardinals
Broncos
Packers
Browns

Teams that are "happy" with their QB situation:
Patriots
Cowboys

Teams that are happy with their QB situation:
Chiefs
Eagles
Bills
Niners
Vikings
Bengals
Chargers
Jags
Lions
Steelers
Bears
Rams
 
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Oil Can Dan

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Great post and I agree with all except the Rams. Stafford is exercising his option and will be back for 2023 and 2024.

Gonna be a really interesting offseason.
 

nattysez

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Great post and I agree with all except the Rams. Stafford is exercising his option and will be back for 2023 and 2024.

Gonna be a really interesting offseason.
Oh good point. I'm not sure if that makes the Rams happy or "happy" with their QB situation, or maybe "stuck with their high-priced QB." I moved them to actually happy.
 

heavyde050

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The Cardinals can't move on from Kyler this off-season. You could arguably put them on the "needs" list because they likely will need a new starting QB for most of next season due to Kyler's injury, but the smart play for their new GM is probably to tank 2023 to start rebuilding.

The Falcons just used a third-round pick on a QB -- I think they're going to let Ridder develop.

The Niners are not signing another starting QB. They don't have the FA $ to pay for a big-time QB and they seem happy with Lance and Purdy. They might bring James G or another vet backup in just because Lance can't be trusted and Purdy could still turn into a pumpkin.

I agree with the sentiment that the Ravens are going to let Lamar walk. Overpaying Lamar seems very Saints-y to me. Or maybe the Commies return to the old Snyder days and sign him.

I think we can divide the NFL into these categories:

Teams that are arguably close to winning and would make sense for TB12:
Raiders
Dolphins
Jets

Teams that may be able to contend in their division with a good new QB but don't make sense for TB12:
Washington
Panthers
Saints
Ravens
Titans

Teams that are starting over and likely will focus on developing a young QB:
Colts
Texans
Bucs
Rams
Atlanta

Teams that should re-sign their FA QB:
Giants
Seahawks

Teams that are stuck with their high-priced QB:
Cardinals
Broncos
Packers
Browns

Teams that are "happy" with their QB situation:
Patriots
Cowboys

Teams that are happy with their QB situation:
Chiefs
Eagles
Bills
Niners
Vikings
Bengals
Chargers
Jags
Lions
Steelers
Bears
Rams
Really good post, but I cannot imagine any scenario in which the 49ers bring back Jimmy G. They already "moved on" from him once and drafted his replacement. He isn't going to want to be a 3rd string QB or compete for a backup role. I agree the 49ers are happy with their situation, and if they decide to bring in a vet, I could see them kicking the tires on Brady before bringing back Jimmy G.
 

BaseballJones

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Really good post, but I cannot imagine any scenario in which the 49ers bring back Jimmy G. They already "moved on" from him once and drafted his replacement. He isn't going to want to be a 3rd string QB or compete for a backup role. I agree the 49ers are happy with their situation, and if they decide to bring in a vet, I could see them kicking the tires on Brady before bringing back Jimmy G.
Yeah, unless there are major negative cap implications for trading JG, I don't see any reason why they'd keep him. Purdy seems like he might be the real deal (as amazing as that is), and they have so much invested in Lance already that he probably will still be the backup. They ought to maximize what JG can get in a trade and then use those picks to add elsewhere.

Unless they think that Purdy is fool's gold and want JG as a solid backup plan.

Or maybe, I wonder what the Niners could get for Purdy in a trade if they think he's fool's gold. I'm sure SOMEONE out there is absolutely enamored by Purdy, and knows he'd cost nothing in salary, even if he'd cost them something pretty big in trade capital.
 

BigJimEd

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Yeah, unless there are major negative cap implications for trading JG, I don't see any reason why they'd keep him. Purdy seems like he might be the real deal (as amazing as that is), and they have so much invested in Lance already that he probably will still be the backup. They ought to maximize what JG can get in a trade and then use those picks to add elsewhere.

Unless they think that Purdy is fool's gold and want JG as a solid backup plan.

Or maybe, I wonder what the Niners could get for Purdy in a trade if they think he's fool's gold. I'm sure SOMEONE out there is absolutely enamored by Purdy, and knows he'd cost nothing in salary, even if he'd cost them something pretty big in trade capital.
Jimmy G is a free agent. I'm not sure how much they would get for Purdy.
 

BigJimEd

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If Purdy takes them to the SB, I imagine he'd fetch a pretty good return, wouldn't you think? Lots of teams are pretty desperate for a good QB.
That's a big IF but I'm still not sure. Maybe. What would you consider a pretty good/big return?

And then the Niners would be in the market for a QB to at least backup Lance.
 

natpastime162

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If Purdy takes them to the SB, I imagine he'd fetch a pretty good return, wouldn't you think? Lots of teams are pretty desperate for a good QB.
Unless it’s great return with multiple early round picks I think Purdy might be just as valuable to the 49ers as any other team. With Jimmy G gone, whether Lance has any setbacks, etc.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah I mean, I don't think SF trades him. This was all under the premise (that turned out to be wrong on my part) that they would keep JG and, instead of having three QBs, use Purdy's success to get something pretty darned good back... IF they thought he was fool's gold. Well, the whole thing was wrong because I forgot JG was a FA in the first place!
 

mauf

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Here’s how I see the carousel:

Bucs: They could roll with Kyle Trask, but more likely, their Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Tom Brady to the carousel, though of course he could retire.

Colts: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Matt Ryan to the carousel.

Commanders: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Taylor Heineke and Carson Wentz to the carousel.

Falcons: Marcus Mariota is under contract for another season, but I think they’ll look to acquire a long-term solution at the position, likely retaining Mariota either as a backup or to mentor a rookie who needs seasoning.

49ers: Expect they will roll with Purdy or Lance. Jimmy G to the carousel.

Giants: Daniel Jones is a free agent. Would’ve said with confidence a week ago that he wouldn’t be tagged, but now who the hell knows. Putting him on the carousel.

Jets: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Mike White likely stays as a backup. Zach Wilson to the carousel.

Lions: Jared Goff has a $30.6m cap hit for 2023 and a $10m dead-cap number. Putting Goff on the carousel because I think the time is ripe for the Lions to acquire their long-term QB.

Panthers: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Sam Darnold to the carousel.

Patriots: Perhaps wishful thinking, but I’d like to see them bring a veteran to camp to compete with Jones and Zappe for the starting job.

Raiders: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Derek Carr to the carousel.

Ravens: A week ago, I would’ve said Lamar is back on a tag or a long-term deal unless someone offers three first-round picks. Now I’m not so sure — Lamar’s injury seems more serious than we thought, and no-showing a playoff game is the act of a man preparing to shoot his way out of town. Lamar’s on the carousel.

Saints: They desperately need a cap reset but who the hell knows what they will actually do. They’re stuck with Taysom Hill for another year, but I’m putting Jameis Winston on the carousel.

Seahawks: Geno Smith is a free agent and won’t be tagged.

Texans. Even though they’re picking 2nd, I still think they’ll address the position through the draft, though they’ll likely sign a veteran QB to push the new kid. Davis Mills to the carousel; they won’t want a guy in camp who commands the loyalty of some of the team’s veterans.

Titans: Ryan Tannehill’s 2023 cap number is $36.6m with a dead cap number of $18.8m. Not putting on the carousel because I think a restructure is mutually beneficial and will get done.

On the carousel (in alphabetical order, likely starters in bold):

Tom Brady
Derek Carr

Sam Darnold
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jared Goff

Taylor Heineke
Lamar Jackson
Daniel Jones

Baker Mayfield
Davis Mills
Gardner Minshew
Matt Ryan
Geno Smith
Carson Wentz
Zach Wilson
Jameis Winston

Among the bolded names, only Carr and Jimmy G are locks to change teams; Brady could retire, and the others could return to their current teams. But there’s the potential for a ton of movement.
 
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BigJimEd

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Teams that are stuck with their high-priced QB:

Packers
GB could possibly trade Rodgers. I don't think it is likely but the possibility is there. Maybe if they like Love and feel it is a good time to hit the reset.
 

E5 Yaz

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Lions: Jared Goff has a $30.6m cap hit for 2023 and a $10m dead-cap number. Putting Goff on the carousel because I think the time is ripe for the Lions to acquire their long-term QB.
This is a really tricky one. Goff had a far better season than anyone might expect and he's just 28. Ditching him at this point might not go over well in a locker room that has really started to believe in its chances.
I get what you're saying, but moving on from Goff seems like a move that could easily backfire
 

nattysez

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SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
6,969
On the carousel (in alphabetical order, likely starters in bold):

Tom Brady
Derek Carr

Sam Darnold
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jared Goff

Taylor Heineke
Lamar Jackson
Daniel Jones

Baker Mayfield
Davis Mills
Gardner Minshew
Matt Ryan
Geno Smith
Carson Wentz
Zach Wilson
Jameis Winston
The wild thing is that other than TB12, there isn't one guy on the list to whom a team should feel comfortable paying huge money. If you're Harbaugh and are sick of Lamar, is there anyone on this list you'd take over Huntley? If TB12 goes to Miami, is Josh going to be willing to sign James G to more than a 1-year deal?