2023 Pats: Offseason

bsj

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Next person to cite a Justin Ramos tweet as a ‘rumor’ or ‘rumbling’ goes into timeout.
FFS I didnt want to include the tweet. I saw a half dozen tweets that were all about the same thing so I asked if anyone had heard it from a reputable source and I was dinged for NOT posting the 100% admitted non verifiable ones so i posted a bunch of them. Which were absolutely rumblings. I never presented them as more than that. I'll take a self imposed break because this exchange was completely multi directional and made no sense and maybe its just that Ive had a long day.
 

DJnVa

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Hopkins thread or whatever doesn't say he ordered clam chowder today. So, yeah, folks taking that bit of info and assuming that must mean he ordered chowder today and not when everyone knows he was here on his visit.

And folks should calm down--this isn't a NEWS ONLY thread. @bsj saw something online and asked about it. It's a discussion board. It's what we do.
 

BaseballJones

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BB hasn't acted this offseason like he's on the hot seat. If he was, THIS year would have been a crucial year to make drastic improvements. In that case, going after some stars would have made sense. Like...signing Hopkins. But he seems to be playing the long game here, building, building, building but not in GFIN mode.
 

lexrageorge

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Yet Curran suggests Kraft will keep Bill around to reach the 19 victories needed to beat Shula’s record. Curran used to be interesting at one time….
 

Cellar-Door

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Lol, ah yes Bellichick was definitely on the hot seat in 2019, the season after he won a SB... which was the 3rd win in 5 years, and the 3rd straight SB he'd been to.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Yet Curran suggests Kraft will keep Bill around to reach the 19 victories needed to beat Shula’s record. Curran used to be interesting at one time….
If he’s right, he can spike the football. If not, ie, the Pats miss the playoffs again but BB survives, he can count on the masses forgetting he said it and/or point to some other intervening event/variable.

I also have no idea what it means to say his seat was ‘warm’ in 2020/after 2020.
 

Mantush

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There’s no reason to fire BB. The lack of playoff wins is obviously disappointing, but he’s still one of, if not the, best head coach in the league. There’s nobody that you can bring in that would be an upgrade. He coaches until he decides to retire. It’s that simple. If Kraft fired him before he’s ready to retire, there are a number of teams that will give him a godfather offer to finish out his career - I guarantee it.
 

Van Everyman

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I don't really disagree with most of what Curran says -- but he himself walks back that Kraft walked back the "we need to win a playoff game" thing from the offseason. He's just saying that Kraft is "intensely dissatisfied" with the results -- which I believe is at least partly performative siding with the fans who want a great team on the field. My guess is that Kraft isn't happy about the current state of things but is nowhere near "FIRE BILL" status or shuttling him to the front office.
 

Van Everyman

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I also have no idea what it means to say his seat was ‘warm’ in 2020/after 2020.
I'm assuming that means that Kraft trusted Bill to manage the Brady situation and wasn't entirely pleased that Tom went out and won a SB while the Pats threw Cam out there and had no real plan. I suspect last year was kind of a similar reaction with Josh leaving and the wheels coming off the offense, hence all the rumblings and grumblings.
 

astrozombie

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First I doubt that BBs seat is that warm. I tend to think Kraft keeps him through beating Shulas record and then re-evaluates. Second, punting Bill upstairs would be weird since a lot of fan dissatisfaction stems from his GMing job.
I don't think Kraft is thrilled with everything currently, but he must also have a different perspective, given that he had BB and TB for so long. Very few franchises get that level of coach and qb continuity and have had to make hard choices in a way that Kraft really hasnt.
 

Shelterdog

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It's pretty transparent that when the Pats aren't great the Krafts go to Curran and give him some off the record red meat saying oh yeah, the Krafts are being so tough and they're holding BB accountable!

Actually firing the dude would be very hard and not sure the Krafts are anywhere close to being ready to do that.
 

Euclis20

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If the story was that he'd be stripped of his GM duties (gently), I'd understand. He's arguably the greatest HC in history and even at 71 he's a top 5 HC today (both in terms of week to week prep and game-day management), but even at his best, he was never more than a competent GM. It makes perfect sense that he'd want to pare down his responsibilities as he ages to focus on what he's best at, which is coaching and not roster management. Outside of obvious cognitive decline or health concerns, there is just no way that Kraft removes Belichick from the sidelines at any point against his will.
 

Van Everyman

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even at his best, he was never more than a competent GM
I just don't know how you can even say that. They won 6 fucking rings for chrissakes. Even if you're on the "BUT BRADY" train, it was Bill who had to put those teams on the field and coach them up -- and with almost never any picks before, like, 28.
 

Euclis20

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I just don't know how you can even say that. They won 6 fucking rings for chrissakes. Even if you're on the "BUT BRADY" train, it was Bill who had to put those teams on the field and coach them up -- and with almost never any picks before, like, 28.
Take the best HC ever, give him the best QB ever for 20 solid years, and I think it's fair to say that you don't need more than a competent GM to have unprecedented success.

It's not "BUT BRADY", it's "BUT BRADY AND BELICHICK THE COACH." I'm comfortable 100% separating his coaching ability (GOAT) with his gm'ing ability (solid).
 

BaseballJones

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I just don't know how you can even say that. They won 6 fucking rings for chrissakes. Even if you're on the "BUT BRADY" train, it was Bill who had to put those teams on the field and coach them up -- and with almost never any picks before, like, 28.
In another thread here, I did a bunch of stuff on BB's drafting. It has been superb. Absolutely superb. He makes lots of mistakes, of course, but so does every GM, especially if you do it for 23 years in a row. Consider all the decisions a GM has to make over that span of time. Drafting, trades, free agents, cap management, hiring coaches, etc. He's done an OUTSTANDING job as GM.

They won 6 rings and went to *13* Conference Championship games (winning 9 of them) from 2001-2018. So over 18 seasons (20 total with Brady), the Patriots went to 13 AFCCGs. For some perspective, Joe Montana (the previous GOAT) played for SF from 1979-1992, a span of 14 seasons. In that time, they won 4 Super Bowls and went to 6 NFCCGs.

New England
- 20 total seasons with the GOAT QB
- 6 Super Bowl titles (30.0%)
- 9 AFCCG victories (45.0%)
- 13 AFCCG appearances (65.0%)

Tom Brady with Tampa
- 3 total seasons with the GOAT QB
- 1 Super Bowl title (33.3%)
- 1 NFCCG victory (33.3%)
- 1 NFCCG appearance (33.3%)

San Francisco
- 14 seasons with the previous GOAT QB
- 4 Super Bowl titles (28.6%)
- 4 NFCCG victories (28.6%)
- 6 NFCCG appearances (42.9%)

Those 49ers had the GOAT QB, the GOAT WR, All-Pros all over the place, and one of the greatest coaches of all time in Walsh (and a good one to follow in Seifert). And they "only" made it to the NFCCG 42.9% of the time. I say "only" because that's still incredible. But the Pats made it to the AFCCG 65% of the time. That's RIDICULOUS.

Of course Brady was the key on-field guy in the Pats' dynasty. But to suggest that all you have to do is roll with the GOAT QB and you should be winning titles left and right is just absurd. (I know you were arguing against that point)

What BB did in building teams was amazing. What Bill did coaching teams was amazing. Tom Brady gets TONS of credit (and rightfully so) for what he did for the Patriots. Absolutely legendary. But it wasn't just Brady. BB did a TON as GM to build winning teams, which is especially hard in a salary cap era.
 

joe dokes

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In another thread here, I did a bunch of stuff on BB's drafting. It has been superb. Absolutely superb. He makes lots of mistakes, of course, but so does every GM, especially if you do it for 23 years in a row. Consider all the decisions a GM has to make over that span of time. Drafting, trades, free agents, cap management, hiring coaches, etc. He's done an OUTSTANDING job as GM.

They won 6 rings and went to *13* Conference Championship games (winning 9 of them) from 2001-2018. So over 18 seasons (20 total with Brady), the Patriots went to 13 AFCCGs. For some perspective, Joe Montana (the previous GOAT) played for SF from 1979-1992, a span of 14 seasons. In that time, they won 4 Super Bowls and went to 6 NFCCGs.

New England
- 20 total seasons with the GOAT QB
- 6 Super Bowl titles (30.0%)
- 9 AFCCG victories (45.0%)
- 13 AFCCG appearances (65.0%)

Tom Brady with Tampa
- 3 total seasons with the GOAT QB
- 1 Super Bowl title (33.3%)
- 1 NFCCG victory (33.3%)
- 1 NFCCG appearance (33.3%)

San Francisco
- 14 seasons with the previous GOAT QB
- 4 Super Bowl titles (28.6%)
- 4 NFCCG victories (28.6%)
- 6 NFCCG appearances (42.9%)

Those 49ers had the GOAT QB, the GOAT WR, All-Pros all over the place, and one of the greatest coaches of all time in Walsh (and a good one to follow in Seifert). And they "only" made it to the NFCCG 42.9% of the time. I say "only" because that's still incredible. But the Pats made it to the AFCCG 65% of the time. That's RIDICULOUS.

Of course Brady was the key on-field guy in the Pats' dynasty. But to suggest that all you have to do is roll with the GOAT QB and you should be winning titles left and right is just absurd. (I know you were arguing against that point)

What BB did in building teams was amazing. What Bill did coaching teams was amazing. Tom Brady gets TONS of credit (and rightfully so) for what he did for the Patriots. Absolutely legendary. But it wasn't just Brady. BB did a TON as GM to build winning teams, which is especially hard in a salary cap era.
I think all one has to do is look at Manning's Colts or Rodgers's Packers (two HoF QBs) to see the difference their respective coaches/GMs made.
 

NickEsasky

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What BB did in building teams was amazing. What Bill did coaching teams was amazing. Tom Brady gets TONS of credit (and rightfully so) for what he did for the Patriots. Absolutely legendary. But it wasn't just Brady. BB did a TON as GM to build winning teams, which is especially hard in a salary cap era.
Great post. I just want to highlight the bolded because the universe in which Bill needed to operate was so different than those 9ers teams. Outside of a cap, Kraft might have told Bill to go nuts and the Patriots would need to build another tier onto Gilette in order to have room for all the banners.
 

BaseballJones

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I think all one has to do is look at Manning's Colts or Rodgers's Packers (two HoF QBs) to see the difference their respective coaches/GMs made.
Yep.

Rodgers (top 5 all-time QB) with GB - 2005-2022
- 18 seasons
- 1 Super Bowl title (5.6%)
- 1 NFCCG victory (5.6%)
- 5 NFCCG appearances (27.8%) - technically 6, because they went in 2007 when Favre was the starter and Rodgers was the backup

Manning (top 3 all-time QB) with Indy - 1998-2010
- 13 seasons
- 1 Super Bowl title (7.7%)
- 2 AFCCG victories (15.4%)
- 3 AFCCG appearances (23.1%)

John Elway (top 6-8 all-time QB) with Den - 1983-1998
- 16 seasons
- 2 Super Bowl titles (12.5%)
- 5 AFCCG victories (31.3%)
- 6 AFCCG appearances (37.5%)


What Brady and Belichick accomplished together was just off every chart imaginable. And yet some people want to not give BB his proper due. It's amazing.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Great post. I just want to highlight the bolded because the universe in which Bill needed to operate was so different than those 9ers teams. Outside of a cap, Kraft might have told Bill to go nuts and the Patriots would need to build another tier onto Gilette in order to have room for all the banners.
I mean, other teams had to cut good players too for salary cap reasons during the BB/TB era. But yeah if they could have just kept the band together....the sky was the limit for New England.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yep.

Rodgers (top 5 all-time QB) with GB - 2005-2022
- 18 seasons
- 1 Super Bowl title (5.6%)
- 1 NFCCG victory (5.6%)
- 5 NFCCG appearances (27.8%) - technically 6, because they went in 2007 when Favre was the starter and Rodgers was the backup

Manning (top 3 all-time QB) with Indy - 1998-2010
- 13 seasons
- 1 Super Bowl title (7.7%)
- 2 AFCCG victories (15.4%)
- 3 AFCCG appearances (23.1%)

John Elway (top 6-8 all-time QB) with Den - 1983-1998
- 16 seasons
- 2 Super Bowl titles (12.5%)
- 5 AFCCG victories (31.3%)
- 6 AFCCG appearances (37.5%)


What Brady and Belichick accomplished together was just off every chart imaginable. And yet some people want to not give BB his proper due. It's amazing.
Everyone outside of New England gets him. And most people inside do. Cranky old pants talk radio listeners are a loud minority. And some folks who have amnesia about how bad it was around here between 1986 and 2001.
 

BaseballJones

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Just because I was curious, here are Peyton Manning's postseason losses when with Indy:

1999 L 19-16
2000 L 23-17
2002 L 41-0
2003 L 24-14
2004 L 20-3
2005 L 21-18
2007 L 28-24
2008 L 23-17
2009 L 31-17
2010 L 17-16

In those games (the actual games played was the following year from what I just gave above, which were the "season" years):

Opp: 24.7 ppg
Ind: 14.2 ppg

The reason I did this was because I asked myself the question of how would the Pats have done with BB as coach, and the rest of the Indy roster but with Brady at QB instead of Manning. Obviously it's a TON more offensive talent on those Indy squads, and so Brady would have had a field day throwing to those receivers and having Edge in the backfield. But the defenses were far better in New England. But then I asked myself, how did Peyton and also those Indy defenses do in their playoff losses? In other words, did their bad defenses come back to kill them? No, as it turns out. The reason they lost those playoff games was 95% on Peyton and the offense.

1999 - Ind averaged 26.5 points and allowed 20.8. In the playoffs, they scored 16 (-10.5) and allowed 19 (+1.8)
2000 - Ind averaged 26.8 points and allowed 20.4. In the playoffs, they scored 17 (-9.8) and allowed 23 (-2.6)
2002 - Ind averaged 21.8 points and allowed 19.6. In the playoffs, they scored 0 (-21.8) and allowed 41 (-21.4)
2003 - Ind averaged 27.9 points and allowed 21.0. In the playoffs, they scored 14 (-13.9) and allowed 24 (-3.0)
2004 - Ind averaged 32.6 points and allowed 21.9. In the playoffs, they scored 3 (-29.6) and allowed 20 (+1.9)
2005 - Ind averaged 27.4 points and allowed 15.4. In the playoffs they scored 18 (-9.4) and allowed 21 (-5.6)
2007 - Ind averaged 28.1 points and allowed 16.4. In the playoffs they scored 24 (-4.1) and allowed 28 (-11.6)
2008 - Ind averaged 23.6 points and allowed 18.6. In the playoffs they scored 17 (-6.6) and allowed 23 (-4.4)
2009 - Ind averaged 26.0 points and allowed 19.2. In the playoffs they scored 17 (-9.0) and allowed 31 (-11.8)
2010 - Ind averaged 27.2 points and allowed 24.3. In the playoffs they scored 16 (-11.1) and allowed 17 (+7.3)

Very much mostly on the offense there.

*In 2002 the defense was worse, relatively speaking, than the offense. But when you score ZERO, it doesn't matter how many points you allow.
 

tims4wins

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Just because I was curious, here are Peyton Manning's postseason losses when with Indy:

1999 L 19-16
2000 L 23-17
2002 L 41-0
2003 L 24-14
2004 L 20-3
2005 L 21-18
2007 L 28-24
2008 L 23-17
2009 L 31-17
2010 L 17-16

In those games (the actual games played was the following year from what I just gave above, which were the "season" years):

Opp: 24.7 ppg
Ind: 14.2 ppg

The reason I did this was because I asked myself the question of how would the Pats have done with BB as coach, and the rest of the Indy roster but with Brady at QB instead of Manning. Obviously it's a TON more offensive talent on those Indy squads, and so Brady would have had a field day throwing to those receivers and having Edge in the backfield. But the defenses were far better in New England. But then I asked myself, how did Peyton and also those Indy defenses do in their playoff losses? In other words, did their bad defenses come back to kill them? No, as it turns out. The reason they lost those playoff games was 95% on Peyton and the offense.

1999 - Ind averaged 26.5 points and allowed 20.8. In the playoffs, they scored 16 (-10.5) and allowed 19 (+1.8)
2000 - Ind averaged 26.8 points and allowed 20.4. In the playoffs, they scored 17 (-9.8) and allowed 23 (-2.6)
2002 - Ind averaged 21.8 points and allowed 19.6. In the playoffs, they scored 0 (-21.8) and allowed 41 (-21.4)
2003 - Ind averaged 27.9 points and allowed 21.0. In the playoffs, they scored 14 (-13.9) and allowed 24 (-3.0)
2004 - Ind averaged 32.6 points and allowed 21.9. In the playoffs, they scored 3 (-29.6) and allowed 20 (+1.9)
2005 - Ind averaged 27.4 points and allowed 15.4. In the playoffs they scored 18 (-9.4) and allowed 21 (-5.6)
2007 - Ind averaged 28.1 points and allowed 16.4. In the playoffs they scored 24 (-4.1) and allowed 28 (-11.6)
2008 - Ind averaged 23.6 points and allowed 18.6. In the playoffs they scored 17 (-6.6) and allowed 23 (-4.4)
2009 - Ind averaged 26.0 points and allowed 19.2. In the playoffs they scored 17 (-9.0) and allowed 31 (-11.8)
2010 - Ind averaged 27.2 points and allowed 24.3. In the playoffs they scored 16 (-11.1) and allowed 17 (+7.3)

Very much mostly on the offense there.

*In 2002 the defense was worse, relatively speaking, than the offense. But when you score ZERO, it doesn't matter how many points you allow.
In like half those losses Manning had his worst passer rating of the season or something like that.
 

Salva135

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Oct 19, 2008
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In another thread here, I did a bunch of stuff on BB's drafting. It has been superb. Absolutely superb. He makes lots of mistakes, of course, but so does every GM, especially if you do it for 23 years in a row. Consider all the decisions a GM has to make over that span of time. Drafting, trades, free agents, cap management, hiring coaches, etc. He's done an OUTSTANDING job as GM.

They won 6 rings and went to *13* Conference Championship games (winning 9 of them) from 2001-2018. So over 18 seasons (20 total with Brady), the Patriots went to 13 AFCCGs. For some perspective, Joe Montana (the previous GOAT) played for SF from 1979-1992, a span of 14 seasons. In that time, they won 4 Super Bowls and went to 6 NFCCGs.

New England
- 20 total seasons with the GOAT QB
- 6 Super Bowl titles (30.0%)
- 9 AFCCG victories (45.0%)
- 13 AFCCG appearances (65.0%)

Tom Brady with Tampa
- 3 total seasons with the GOAT QB
- 1 Super Bowl title (33.3%)
- 1 NFCCG victory (33.3%)
- 1 NFCCG appearance (33.3%)

San Francisco
- 14 seasons with the previous GOAT QB
- 4 Super Bowl titles (28.6%)
- 4 NFCCG victories (28.6%)
- 6 NFCCG appearances (42.9%)

Those 49ers had the GOAT QB, the GOAT WR, All-Pros all over the place, and one of the greatest coaches of all time in Walsh (and a good one to follow in Seifert). And they "only" made it to the NFCCG 42.9% of the time. I say "only" because that's still incredible. But the Pats made it to the AFCCG 65% of the time. That's RIDICULOUS.

Of course Brady was the key on-field guy in the Pats' dynasty. But to suggest that all you have to do is roll with the GOAT QB and you should be winning titles left and right is just absurd. (I know you were arguing against that point)

What BB did in building teams was amazing. What Bill did coaching teams was amazing. Tom Brady gets TONS of credit (and rightfully so) for what he did for the Patriots. Absolutely legendary. But it wasn't just Brady. BB did a TON as GM to build winning teams, which is especially hard in a salary cap era.
I know this forum is a bit generous with its BB love, but calling his drafting history "superb" just seems a bit over the top. I've never seen an analysis of the Pats' drafting as being anything better than league-average over the course of the BB era, so can you link me to this thread you're referring to? Everything you listed here is just a compendium of team accomplishments and the Brady/BB joint resume, it doesn't tell us anything about BB's ability to draft or acquire talent relative to the rest of the league.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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I know this forum is a bit generous with its BB love, but calling his drafting history "superb" just seems a bit over the top. I've never seen an analysis of the Pats' drafting as being anything better than league-average over the course of the BB era, so can you link me to this thread you're referring to? Everything you listed here is just a compendium of team accomplishments and the Brady/BB joint resume, it doesn't tell us anything about BB's ability to draft or acquire talent relative to the rest of the league.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/how-likely-are-you-to-draft-a-starter.39403/
 

Van Everyman

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This is a great discussion, thanks, @BaseballJones.

I know watching Brady win one immediately after leaving for Tampa was bittersweet for a lot of us on this board. But the following two seasons proved to me, at least, exactly what a lot of us felt all along: that the kind of sustained excellence the Patriots had from 2001-2019 required both Brady (exceptional QB play) and Belichick (on and off the field management and personnel).

Either one of them alone probably could have won a title or two if they’d never found the other. But it took Brady going into an almost perfect situation—great receivers, stacked D and an underrated ring-chasing RB—for him to pull it off by himself. And, if you don’t also have someone savvily managing the cap and depth, the combination of attrition and injuries will do you in after two or three seasons.

We kind of forgot it because of what we had in New England. But winning Super Bowls is really hard. Just ask Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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This is a great discussion, thanks, @BaseballJones.

I know watching Brady win one immediately after leaving for Tampa was bittersweet for a lot of us on this board. But the following two seasons proved to me, at least, exactly what a lot of us felt all along: that the kind of sustained excellence the Patriots had from 2001-2019 required both Brady (exceptional QB play) and Belichick (on and off the field management and personnel).

Either one of them alone probably could have won a title or two if they’d never found the other. But it took Brady going into an almost perfect situation—great receivers, stacked D and an underrated ring-chasing RB—for him to pull it off by himself. And, if you don’t also have someone savvily managing the cap and depth, the combination of attrition and injuries will do you in after two or three seasons.

We kind of forgot it because of what we had in New England. But winning Super Bowls is really hard. Just ask Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
Yeah it is. Really hard.

So this is the thing in the salary cap era. No individual team can just keep loading up year after year and being in GFIN mode. Every year there are a few that do that, and some of them have great health all year long, and they're real threats to win it all. But you can't keep on doing that for 20 straight years. You need to reset after a handful of years, and then you're going to dip for a few, and then build back up again. So no individual team can keep doing that. But every year SOMEONE is doing it - usually a few teams. So there's always a few teams that are just letting loose.

So in that environment, for the Pats to always be GREAT - not just good, but GREAT - is absolutely a testament to Tom Brady's greatness, but also to the incredibly high level job that BB the HC and BB the GM did over that time to consistently put the RIGHT guys around Brady and to build a great TEAM.
 

Super Nomario

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Great post. I just want to highlight the bolded because the universe in which Bill needed to operate was so different than those 9ers teams. Outside of a cap, Kraft might have told Bill to go nuts and the Patriots would need to build another tier onto Gilette in order to have room for all the banners.
I disagree with this. I think Belichick has done an exceptional job managing within the cap constraints, identifying undervalued assets, picking which guys to re-sign and which ones to move on from, and getting value when moving on from those guys, etc. I don't think the salary cap leveled out Belichick's advantages; I think it heightened them.
 

Salva135

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It'll take me some time to go through all of what is clearly a ton of analytical effort, but this ends in 2013. Man, that's 10 years ago. I love to "celebrate what is/was" just as much as anyone else here, but where is this team right now? When is the last great draft? Where are the building blocks for continued success? This is the least talented team in the division and one of the bottom feeders of a stacked conference. Winning 7-8 games and congratulating BB for getting that out of a 3-4 win team is getting tiresome. If Mac doesn't make a jump under BOB this year, they are back to square one and I don't know what the plan is.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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It'll take me some time to go through all of what is clearly a ton of analytical effort, but this ends in 2013. Man, that's 10 years ago. I love to "celebrate what is/was" just as much as anyone else here, but where is this team right now? When is the last great draft? Where are the building blocks for continued success? This is the least talented team in the division and one of the bottom feeders of a stacked conference. Winning 7-8 games and congratulating BB for getting that out of a 3-4 win team is getting tiresome. If Mac doesn't make a jump under BOB this year, they are back to square one and I don't know what the plan is.
I explained why I had to end the study in 2013: "I am only looking at drafts from 2000-2013. This is because drafts after 2013 are much more impacted by the fact that I don't have the 2022 season data in it, which does change some things, but also by the fact that the longer the career, the better chance to hit the two benchmarks I'm about to look for."

The last few drafts have produced:

2020: Dugger, Uche, Onwenu, Herron (not a great player but he's been in the NFL for 3 years...not bad for a 6th round pick)
2021: Mac, Barmore, Stevenson, Bledsoe (still in the league, again not bad for a 6th rounder)
2022: Strange, Thornton, M Jones, J Jones, Strong, Zappa, K Harris,
2023: Gonzalez, White, Mapu, etc. - can't really say much about this year's draft because we don't know how any of them will turn out

Those are strong drafts.

As for your last point, yes in many ways it hinges on Mac Jones. That's why last year was pretty bad - not only was the record bad, but it really stunted Mac's development. It was a bad move by BB to go with Patricia and Judge running the offense. Thankfully, it was just a one year mistake which he quickly corrected and got a very high level offensive coordinator in there in BOB. If we see Mac play poorly, then yeah, it's a redo at the QB spot. But he had a good rookie year with a good OC. If he has a good year this year then they'll be in pretty good shape at QB moving forward.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
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Bill’s drafting and player acquisitions the past 10 years is clearly not as good as the prior 10, right? Best coach of all time, no doubt, but the post Brady era hasn’t been super impressive. Acknowledging that is ok, I think, and doesn’t mean one isn’t appreciative of all that Belichick has done here and how ridiculously amazing it was.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,812
Bill’s drafting and player acquisitions the past 10 years is clearly not as good as the prior 10, right? Best coach of all time, no doubt, but the post Brady era hasn’t been super impressive. Acknowledging that is ok, I think, and doesn’t mean one isn’t appreciative of all that Belichick has done here and how ridiculously amazing it was.
He definitely had some down years drafting for sure. He's improved a lot in the last few though. On the WHOLE he's been really good at it though.
 

Salva135

Cassandra
Oct 19, 2008
1,572
Boston
I explained why I had to end the study in 2013: "I am only looking at drafts from 2000-2013. This is because drafts after 2013 are much more impacted by the fact that I don't have the 2022 season data in it, which does change some things, but also by the fact that the longer the career, the better chance to hit the two benchmarks I'm about to look for."

The last few drafts have produced:

2020: Dugger, Uche, Onwenu, Herron (not a great player but he's been in the NFL for 3 years...not bad for a 6th round pick)
2021: Mac, Barmore, Stevenson, Bledsoe (still in the league, again not bad for a 6th rounder)
2022: Strange, Thornton, M Jones, J Jones, Strong, Zappa, K Harris,
2023: Gonzalez, White, Mapu, etc. - can't really say much about this year's draft because we don't know how any of them will turn out

Those are strong drafts.

As for your last point, yes in many ways it hinges on Mac Jones. That's why last year was pretty bad - not only was the record bad, but it really stunted Mac's development. It was a bad move by BB to go with Patricia and Judge running the offense. Thankfully, it was just a one year mistake which he quickly corrected and got a very high level offensive coordinator in there in BOB. If we see Mac play poorly, then yeah, it's a redo at the QB spot. But he had a good rookie year with a good OC. If he has a good year this year then they'll be in pretty good shape at QB moving forward.

You're grading on the curviest of curves if you grade all of the last 4 drafts as "strong." Only a small handful are impact players, the rest are JAGs. If Mac is bad this year they're going to be one of the worst teams in the league and you're trying to sell the idea that BB is doing well with adding talent. And when they squeak out 7 wins you'll praise BB for getting 7 wins out of a 3-4 win talent team that he himself created. This is a really bad NFL team on paper, created entirely by BB.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,244
Bill’s drafting and player acquisitions the past 10 years is clearly not as good as the prior 10, right? Best coach of all time, no doubt, but the post Brady era hasn’t been super impressive. Acknowledging that is ok, I think, and doesn’t mean one isn’t appreciative of all that Belichick has done here and how ridiculously amazing it was.
There was a series of bad drafts leading up to 2020 (mainly 2017-2019, and 2016 being impacted by injury). And 2020 had 3 third round picks disappoint, which hurts even as he hit some singles and doubles the rest of that draft. Player acquisition looks meh mainly because of Jonnu Smith signing, but literally every single NFL GM has their Jonnu Smith. Algholor was awful, but Henry and of course Judon were hits.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,244
You're grading on the curviest of curves if you grade all of the last 4 drafts as "strong." Only a small handful are impact players, the rest are JAGs. If Mac is bad this year they're going to be one of the worst teams in the league and you're trying to sell the idea that BB is doing well with adding talent. And when they squeak out 7 wins you'll praise BB for getting 7 wins out of a 3-4 win talent team that he himself created. This is a really bad NFL team on paper, created entirely by BB.
First, nobody knows how the 2023 draft will play out. Same can be said to a certain extent about 2022 draft as well.

But getting Dugger, Uche, Barmore, Stevenson, Onwenu is a reasonable haul for those first 2 drafts that most GM's and those in the media would consider a successful outcome. Again, the very thorough analysis done by @BaseballJones explains all this really well if you bothered to read past the fact that he stopped at 2013.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,326
Is Henry really a hit? 550 yards, 5 TD a year is fine, but he hardly seems like an asset. He’s ok, but he’s not making anyone forget about Gronk. Feels like he has provided fair value at best.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,244
Is Henry really a hit? 550 yards, 5 TD a year is fine, but he hardly seems like an asset. He’s ok, but he’s not making anyone forget about Gronk. Feels like he has provided fair value at best.
It's about league average starter at the position, so I would say he is an asset. Their WR corps was weak last season, and so Henry doesn't exactly make up for that. Still may be a problem this season, but we shall see.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,812
First, nobody knows how the 2023 draft will play out. Same can be said to a certain extent about 2022 draft as well.

But getting Dugger, Uche, Barmore, Stevenson, Onwenu is a reasonable haul for those first 2 drafts that most GM's and those in the media would consider a successful outcome. Again, the very thorough analysis done by @BaseballJones explains all this really well if you bothered to read past the fact that he stopped at 2013.
Thank you.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,812
You're grading on the curviest of curves if you grade all of the last 4 drafts as "strong." Only a small handful are impact players, the rest are JAGs. If Mac is bad this year they're going to be one of the worst teams in the league and you're trying to sell the idea that BB is doing well with adding talent. And when they squeak out 7 wins you'll praise BB for getting 7 wins out of a 3-4 win talent team that he himself created. This is a really bad NFL team on paper, created entirely by BB.
The reason I did all that analysis that hopefully you’ll read is to avoid conversations like this. Because you’re wrong if you think that getting a “small handful” of impact players in a few drafts is a bad outcome. The data is clear on this. I hope you read through it all.
 

Salva135

Cassandra
Oct 19, 2008
1,572
Boston
The reason I did all that analysis that hopefully you’ll read is to avoid conversations like this. Because you’re wrong if you think that getting a “small handful” of impact players in a few drafts is a bad outcome. The data is clear on this. I hope you read through it all.
I'm quite familiar with the trope that "the NFL draft is a crapshoot, it's REALLY hard to do well so stop criticizing BB on this." We always come back to this on this sub.

I don't doubt you've done a lot of work on this, and I promise i mean no disrespect to it. But I'm not interested in 2000-2013, and I can't square the circle of trying to praise recent personnel decisions given the current state of the team. Especially when you are trying to claim that BB's drafting over the last several years has been "superb." Surely, 4 years of "superb" drafting should lead to many wins.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,244
CA
I'm quite familiar with the trope that "the NFL draft is a crapshoot, it's REALLY hard to do well so stop criticizing BB on this." We always come back to this on this sub.

I don't doubt you've done a lot of work on this, and I promise i mean no disrespect to it. But I'm not interested in 2000-2013, and I can't square the circle of trying to praise recent personnel decisions given the current state of the team. Especially when you are trying to claim that BB's drafting over the last several years has been "superb." Surely, 4 years of "superb" drafting should lead to many wins.
You could have just said “I didn’t read it.”
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,812
I'm quite familiar with the trope that "the NFL draft is a crapshoot, it's REALLY hard to do well so stop criticizing BB on this." We always come back to this on this sub.

I don't doubt you've done a lot of work on this, and I promise i mean no disrespect to it. But I'm not interested in 2000-2013, and I can't square the circle of trying to praise recent personnel decisions given the current state of the team. Especially when you are trying to claim that BB's drafting over the last several years has been "superb." Surely, 4 years of "superb" drafting should lead to many wins.
I mean it’s fine if you don’t want to read it. Totally your call and I take no offense at all.

But again, I did all that to help answer the kinds of claims you’re making with objective data and analysis. If you’d prefer to just go by your feelings on the matter, that’s fine with me.