The next step then is for you to put out a name as to who you think is a "great" GM at drafting and show how good they are in relation to Bill's record.
2023 Pats: Offseason
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
The author never claimed that; you are not discussing the points raised in good faith as it's clear you have not read the analysis.
He never claimed that the drafting over the past 4 years was superb. He did claim, correctly, that Bill's drafting during his tenure with the Pats was superb. Again, you are not discussing the arguments in good faith. Happy trolling.
I don't care about 2000-2013. I care about the current state of the team. These are 2 completely different discussions.
My claim is that this team is bereft of talent, and they are looking up at everyone in the division and most of the conference.
Are we discussing BB's lifetime achievements or the current state of the team in the 2023 Offseason Thread? There are no actual arguments being made here. Someone posted an article about BB being on the hot seat when someone else made this post:
"even at his best, he was never more than a competent GM"
Which sent BaseballJones off on a tangent about the competence of BB's drafting decisions from 2000-2013.
I'm waiting for him to make an argument that BB's recent "strong" drafts have put this team in a good position going forward. Because that's all that matters as we evaluate the current state of this team's personnel decisions. As far as I can tell he's hedging by placing much of the blame on the failure of last year on Patricia and Judge.
I don’t think the Pats are bereft of talent. Being the favorite to finish last in the AFC East isn’t a function of them being bereft of talent. The schedule this year for the AFC East is a bloodbath and they have the worst offense in the division on paper. They might have the best D but if they do it’s close. If they were in the AFC South they might be the favorite (depends how you feel about the Jags). I don’t think Mac is that good and there are a lot of good QBs in the AFC and that makes it tough. Who was BB supposed to get at QB that is as good as Allen or AR8? Things could go really sideways for the Pats this year because the schedule is really tough but BB is still a great coach so I’ll believe he’s dead when I see a cold body. It’s tough to win without a top QB but his D might lead to some surprises. Every team has holes, Pats have one at QB after not having one there for 20 years. That doesn’t mean every other guy on the team sucks.
Bedard, too. Also a shame.
You don't sign a mid-level FA in the expectation that he will make anyone forget about the best player in NFL history at his position.
It would REALLY help if you read the thread. Like....it pretty much answers your questions if you give it a chance.
At least read the first post thoroughly. It explains why I used the data from 2000-2013. Long story short, I needed a league-wide benchmark by which to analyze this. Because you need to see players' careers over a longer period of time, you have to end the data set early enough to account for a players' full career. You can't get a baseline for what constitutes draft success by looking at the 2021 draft because those players haven't even reached their second contract yet, and we have no idea how it will go. For example, Kyle Pitts might turn out to be one of the great TEs in NFL history - he certainly has the talent for it. But he's not remotely lived up to his status as the #4 overall pick in 2021. So you have to get a baseline, and ending the data in 2013 is a proper cutoff.
Turns out that over a 14-year period, the average team made 8 picks per year, and had 1.7 5-year starters come from that, and fewer than one player per draft (about one every two drafts, as it were) make at least 2 Pro Bowls.
So that's the baseline: If you make 8 picks in a given season, you can expect to get 1.7 players who manage to be 5-year starters in the NFL, and about one player in every two drafts will make 2+ pro bowls.
Since we're looking at guys who stay in the league for 5 years, you can see why it's very difficult to judge a player drafted two years ago. Right? You can see that, yes?
But in post #24 in that thread, I looked through the 2018 draft, and I looked at it from the perspective of draft slots. Since, you know, that really matters. The Pats were a much better than average team at drafting talent from 2000-2013 and they did it while having the WORST average draft slot in the league, year after year (not every single year, but on average). That's because they were always one of the best teams in the league. And obviously the worse your draft slot is, the harder it is to draft players as good as the teams drafting in better draft slots. That's kind of the premise behind the whole draft.
So looking at those 19 years, and using pro-football-reference's metric called "AV", you can figure out what the expected career AV a player has based on his draft position. And then what I did was take all that and see how each team did relative to their draft position, and came up with what the data shows should be their EXPECTED AV, and compared it to what they actually got in AV from those draft picks.
From 2000-2018, the Pats have:
- Gotten a career AV of 2,801
- Had an expected career AV of 2,305
- Gotten a net career AV of +496 over expected (which comes to +3.0 per pick)
So from 2000-2018, the Pats averaged 3 more AV per pick over expected given their draft position. Which is outstanding.
Now, how would you go about evaluating the Pats' drafts from 2020-2023? Obviously you can't even begin to evaluate 2023 unless you're just going by what the draft "experts" tell you is a good pick. So we have to throw that one out completely. But how do you know whether the 2022 draft was good or not? It's way too soon to tell (see the Kyle Pitts example at the beginning of this post).
But using the 2000-2013 data as a baseline, a GOOD draft nets you TWO guys who start for 5+ years in the NFL, and every two years getting one guy who makes 2+ pro bowls over their entire career.
So...
2020
37 - Dugger - already a 2-year starter who will start this year - very much on track to be a 5-year starter (unless he gets hurt)
60 - Uche - not technically a starter yet but obviously a major impact player for them on D
87 - Jennings - not a starter, but has been in the league for 3 years and will play somewhere this year
91 - Asiasi - fighting just to stay in the NFL
101 - Keene - zip
159 - Rohrwasser - worst draft pick in BB's tenure, IMO
182 - Onwenu - already a 2-year starter who will start this year - same as Dugger - should be an NFL starter for a long time
195 - Herron - not a starter, but he's been a guy who plays
204 - Maluia - zip
230 - Woodward - zip
Summary: Dugger is an absolute stud and very well could make several pro bowls before he's done. Uche is really good and had a breakout season last year. Not technically a starter but clearly a terrific young player. Onwenu is really good and is already a 2-year starter and should start for years. So that's 3 legit impact players from that draft, which automatically makes it a really good draft, even though they whiffed on a bunch of picks. Add in that Jennings, Asiasi, and Herron could be guys that stay in the league for a while because they're good enough to be NFL players, but not good enough to play a ton, and this is a really good draft as it turns out.
2021
15 - Jones - in his 3rd year as a starter now
38 - Barmore - not technically a starter, but probably their best interior defensive lineman by talent
96 - Perkins - potential is there, but not gonna make it
120 - Stevenson - not technically a starter yet (he will be this year), but one of the better RBs in the entire NFL
177 - McGrone - just fighting to stay in the league
188 - Bledsoe - a guy who probably will bounce back and forth between the PS and 53-man roster
197 - Sherman - zip
242 - Nixon - see Bledsoe
Summary: Mac Jones is a starting NFL QB. He will never be Tom Brady, but that was a terrific pick at #15. Barmore is an absolute stud as long as he can stay healthy. Stevenson is already one of the better RBs in the league. That's three impact players from that draft, and Bledsoe and Nixon could still provide value in the NFL. Based on expected value, the Pats had a really nice 2021 draft.
2022
29 - Strange - started last year and will start this year and for years to come
50 - Thornton - the talent is there but injuries have gotten in the way so at this point it's been a bad pick but let's see how it goes
85 - M Jones - already an electric talent; may never be a "starter" but will clearly be an impact player for them in all three phases
121 - J Jones - legal issues are there and it's troubling, but from a talent standpoint he's already one of the better corners in the NFL
127 - Strong - not yet a starter (and may never be one) but he's in a position to be a legit contributor in the NFL at the RB spot
137 - Zappe - looking like he's forging a career as a long-time NFL backup, which has a lot of value
183 - K Harris - like Strong, looks like he'll be a major contributor for them at the RB spot, though not a starter
200 - Roberts - fighting to be a regular on the DL
210 - Hines - fighting to make the NFL roster
245 - Stueber - fighting to be a regular on the OL
Summary: Every single one of those picks has the potential to be a good or legit NFL player. Obviously they won't all pan out. But Strange is a longtime starter barring injury. M Jones may never start but he's a major impact player for them. J Jones, assuming he can stay on the field, is already a high-level NFL corner. Strong and Harris may be the future of the running back position for them, but you know how that goes - they might only last til the end of their rookie contracts before the team cycles them out. But they'll be legit contributors. Zappe is fine as a backup QB. This was an excellent draft, and it becomes superlative if Thornton can come close to reaching his potential.
So that's three good drafts in a row.
Your complaint is basically: Ok, so why aren't the Patriots winning more?
Well, in 2021 they had Mac as a rookie, and they went 10-7 and made the playoffs. Last year they had Judge and Patricia running the offense, which was a catastrophe. And even then, they could have won these games (they didn't, but could have):
at GB - they had the ball at the GB 46 yard line in OT just needing a few more yards to get a game-winning FG. And that was with their third stringer at QB (Zappe)
at Min - Pats were up 26-23 in the fourth quarter against them and nearly pulled off an incredible play at the end
at LV - chance to win the game at the end until Meyers' incomprehensible decision to throw the ball to Chandler Jones
vs Cin - at the Cincy goal line in the last minute and Stevenson fumbles the game away
They did NOT win those games, plain and simple. And you may say, "Well they weren't talented enough to win, obviously." But in at least two of them, it wasn't due to lack of talent (LV, Cin). Because the two guys that blew those games (it's a team sport but they made the biggest mistakes that sealed their fate) were Meyers and Stevenson. Stevenson is already one of the best RBs in the NFL so that was just a bad fumble, and wasn't a measure of his *talent*. And Meyers has enough talent to have secured a 3-year, $33 million deal this past offseason, which means he's a very legit NFL wide receiver. Not an all pro, but a legit WR with real talent. He just made a mind-bogglingly bad play at the worst possible moment. Totally out of character for him. No explanation for it, but it wasn't because he's not talented. But winning just two of these four puts them at 10-7 with Goofy and Mickey Mouse as their offensive coaching staff. A mistake that has been quickly corrected, thank God.
So I dunno man, I don't know what to tell you. The Pats under BB have been a good drafting team, and the last few drafts have been way better than you give them credit for. If you think they haven't been, you do the work I did and evaluate all the drafts by some objective measure and then evaluate all the other teams and compare it to NE.
But yeah, it would help if you read the thread.
My read is that when people criticize Bill the GM it is really Bill the GM at drafting offensive skill "fantasy positions" where he doesn't have a great track record to say the least.
Of course they don't give him credit for the Dugger, Owenu, Uche types that are equally as important if not more so in building out a complete team. He has consistently found significant value in OL picks and more recently the secondary which is a bit interesting given there was a stretch where his DB picks looked a lot more like his WR picks back during the Cyrus Jones era.
Still Rhamondre Stevenson is probably his best skill position pick in the last 10yrs which does say something. Of course if he picks AJ Brown or Deebo over NKeal Harry or even Chubb over Sony we probably aren't having this convo.
Of course they don't give him credit for the Dugger, Owenu, Uche types that are equally as important if not more so in building out a complete team. He has consistently found significant value in OL picks and more recently the secondary which is a bit interesting given there was a stretch where his DB picks looked a lot more like his WR picks back during the Cyrus Jones era.
Still Rhamondre Stevenson is probably his best skill position pick in the last 10yrs which does say something. Of course if he picks AJ Brown or Deebo over NKeal Harry or even Chubb over Sony we probably aren't having this convo.
Thanks @Koufax - much appreciated.
For SURE he's made some bad picks. I said the Rohrwasser pick was probably the worst pick I've ever seen. They didn't need him, he wasn't remotely the best kicker in the draft, and they picked him in the 5th. Utterly incomprehensible in every way. Literally made no sense as far as I can tell.
And obviously it is clear that they whiffed on Harry, though at the time there was lots of good reasons to like the pick. Sony isn't nearly as good as Chubb but he has been a good NFL RB and was a key contributor in their last SB run, so that wasn't a bad pick. It could have been a BETTER pick, obviously, but it wasn't a bad one. And of course, while this doesn't count in draft analysis, he's been amazing in the UDFA market over the years. Just his UDFA DBs alone is an eye-popping list.
I think this is exactly right. People also vastly overestimate how good draft picks should be--look at any team's rounds 2-5 and you'll see a lot lot lot more misses than hits--and also overestimate how long a bad draft hurts a team (the 2018 and 19 drafts were pretty bad but are also pretty irrelevant at this point).
Yep. Anyone ripping BB for his drafting needs to put the same amount of effort in examining every other team's draft success. They'll quickly find out how good BB is at it.
It feels like BB is simultaneously getting credit here for drafting wonderfully, and coaching up a mediocre base of talent. I don’t think he’s drafted well in the last decade or so, although of course- neither have other teams.
I was thinking about this, but from an opposite POV. Bill's "hits" from recent drafts have come at the least important positions in the modern NFL: RB (Ram), Guard (Strange, Onwenu), DT (Barmore), Safety (Duggar).
Meanwhile, his high profile "misses" (or missed opportunities) were at the most important positions in the modern NFL: OT, TE, WR, QB (jury on Mac still out)
Really, the only "valuable" position he's been good at drafting is CB, and then it's mostly late rounders/UDFAs that he's developed and he's often missed on those picks in early rounds. I think DE has been a mixed bag, with some decent starters and role players, but no unbelievable talents.
It kind of takes us back to the RB conversation in the other thread. Yeah, it's cool to have Ram, but how helpful is that when it comes to winning football games in 2023? Drafting a starter at guard is kind of nice, but what does that really do for you? They've been good at the low hanging fruit which keeps their floor high, but they've not found game changing players that raise their ceiling.
The "fantasy position" argument is kind of an unfair framing. The Bengals are really good because they have Burrow and Chase. The Bills are really good because they have Allen and Diggs. The Chiefs are really good because they have Mahomes and Kelce. They aren't just vehicles for empty stats - they're the foundations of building a winning team nowadays, and the rest of the players around them (the kinds of players that Bill is good at finding) are just window dressing and kind of replaceable.
So while I think @BaseballJones is accurate in one sense and making a really thorough, well-researched argument, I do think that there's a criticism to be levied in that the Pats are good at finding lower-value starters and pretty bad at uncovering high-impact players in recent years.
Probably the single biggest reason the Patriots aren't a great team right now is because Mac Jones isn't a great QB. He's a perfectly adequate NFL starter at this point in his career, and that makes him a good draft pick - the vast majority of QBs drafted end up being nothing at all. He's already more than that. But in today's day and age, you need really high level QB play to make deep runs into the playoffs. I've said this before, but if 2021 Tom Brady had THIS Patriots team, they'd have won 12-13 games and have been one of the leading contenders to win the AFC.
But they have Mac Jones, who was coached by buffoons last year, and he played hurt for quite a while. So a terrible result for him at the most important position on the field (by a wide margin). If this team as presently constituted had a top 5 QB, they'd absolutely be a Super Bowl contender.
Now, does this mean they need to move on from Mac, or that Mac was a bad draft pick? I already answered the second question - he's been a good draft pick despite not being (yet, anyway) an elite QB. As for the first question, maybe they do, but I'm not sure about that yet. THIS year is super important for him. He'll be working with a high level OC (O'Brien), and he now is in his third season so he's got experience. He appears to be physically stronger and his arm looks crisp. All good stuff. If he can't succeed this year, then yeah, it's time to move on. This is one reason I wanted them to pick up Hopkins - give Mac as many tools as possible to succeed. Oh well, that ship has sailed.
But this team overall has talent. They're just missing that elite QB.
But they have Mac Jones, who was coached by buffoons last year, and he played hurt for quite a while. So a terrible result for him at the most important position on the field (by a wide margin). If this team as presently constituted had a top 5 QB, they'd absolutely be a Super Bowl contender.
Now, does this mean they need to move on from Mac, or that Mac was a bad draft pick? I already answered the second question - he's been a good draft pick despite not being (yet, anyway) an elite QB. As for the first question, maybe they do, but I'm not sure about that yet. THIS year is super important for him. He'll be working with a high level OC (O'Brien), and he now is in his third season so he's got experience. He appears to be physically stronger and his arm looks crisp. All good stuff. If he can't succeed this year, then yeah, it's time to move on. This is one reason I wanted them to pick up Hopkins - give Mac as many tools as possible to succeed. Oh well, that ship has sailed.
But this team overall has talent. They're just missing that elite QB.
Guards, DTs who can rush the passer, and safeties are very very very important and valuable positions and top players at those positions are paid as such.
In relation to other positions, how valuable are they? You'd trade equally talented players at these positions for their neighboring positions in a second - OG for OT, DT for DE, S for CB
Every position on a football field is important, just some are more important than others.
I honestly feel like I'm being gaslighted when I read through these threads sometimes. BB is both a great GM who puts together successful teams AND he squeezes 7-8 wins out of 3-4 win teams. It's an impressive parlor trick.
Those positions are also more expensive (both in terms of salary cap dollars and draft capital investment). It's not a 1 for 1. Belichick has pretty much always invested in so-called "non-premium" positions while trying to do just enough to get by at the so-called "premium" ones. It's a calculated strategy and it's been very effective. Nor is he the only one (the Ravens and Steelers, probably the other two most successful franchises of the past quarter-century, also largely swim against the positional value stream).
Really? (that's a serious question) You can't wrap your head around the idea that BB is an outstanding GM and built the greatest dynasty the sport has ever seen, and yet at the same time has had a few clunkers on his resumé?
Is the standard of excellence so high that you can't be considered to be outstanding if you have a few clunkers? Because in that case, there are no great GMs ever in the sport of pro football. They ALL have clunkers - and anyone who's been doing it as long as BB has, has had a lot more clunkers than him.
EDIT: Take Ozzie Newsome, who many consider to be an absolutely elite GM for the Ravens from 1996-2018. In that time here's his clunkers:
1996 - 4-12
1997 - 6-9-1
1998 - 6-10
2002 - 7-9
2005 - 6-10
2007 - 5-11
2015 - 5-11
So in a span of 23 years, he had 6 with 6 or fewer wins. That's 26% of the time he finished with 6 or fewer wins.
Belichick, meanwhile, in his 23 years with the Pats has had ONE year with 6 or fewer wins - his first season in 2000 when he tore it down and began to start over.
Even as they've been bad post-Brady, they still haven't had a season with 6 or fewer wins.
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I'll have to push back and say the could have lost (they didn't, but could have):
At Pitt - Steelers couldn't buy a 4th quarter field goal to tie the game
At NYJ - Z Wilson shit show in 4th quarter ... throughs a cookie to DMC who runs it back to field goal position. Next drive NYJ go for it 4th and 5 on the Pats 30
Vs NYJ - M Jones return touchdown with 5 seconds because of NYJ bonehead coaching. Might have been worse than the Rham lateral / Meyers pass IMO
vs Miami - Fins gave this away. Last 4 possessions were pick 6, interception, punt, downs
So I don't see them as better than their 8-9 record
I agree and I don't want to play this game, but my point was simply that they won 8 games but they had the talent to win some more.
To simplify a little: the argument presented here, by @ManicCompression is that Bill hasn’t done well at drafting because he hasn’t drafted elite players at the most important positions in today's game: QB, WR, or TE. OTOH we have @BaseballJones arguing that Bill is a good drafter based on his ability to draft starters and contributors. To some extent, both things can be true.
I see it a little differently. I am not 100% convinced Bill thinks you need a Mahomes, Kelce and Hill to win Super Bowls. Yes, he thinks you need "talent" -- but unlike in 2007 when Bill clearly loaded up on players who could execute a spread offense that the post-Marvin Harrison rule changes allowed, he hasn't made a big shift in personnel style since Brady left. I think Bill believes, contrary to almost all the conventional wisdom, that you might be able to win with a QB who takes care of the ball and makes smart decisions, deep depth at the offensive skill positions and an elite defense to slow down the Kelces, Hills and Diggs.
In 2021, I think he built a team to try to prove it. Unfortunately, I think he learned that his "elite" defense was too slow at the LB position, so jettisoned all the KVN-types in the offseason (I think his rookie QB also hit a bit of a wall, post-bye, despite having a pretty good season overall).
2022, of course, went bust because of the Patricia/Judge problem. But my sense is that he was prepared to go out there with the same approach -- including the double TEs. Control the ball, run clock, limit big plays on defense, rinse, repeat.
Now, in 2023, with BOB in the fold, more reinforcements on the OL, a stud CB, Juju replacing Jakobi, and Gesicki replacing Jonnu, I think he is going to try this again.
Will it work? Most analysts and fans think it won't. Is Bill being "arrogant"? Maybe. But regardless, the approach Bill and Groh have taken goes against the grain of how most teams construct their rosters. If nothing else, I'm interested to see what happens.
I see it a little differently. I am not 100% convinced Bill thinks you need a Mahomes, Kelce and Hill to win Super Bowls. Yes, he thinks you need "talent" -- but unlike in 2007 when Bill clearly loaded up on players who could execute a spread offense that the post-Marvin Harrison rule changes allowed, he hasn't made a big shift in personnel style since Brady left. I think Bill believes, contrary to almost all the conventional wisdom, that you might be able to win with a QB who takes care of the ball and makes smart decisions, deep depth at the offensive skill positions and an elite defense to slow down the Kelces, Hills and Diggs.
In 2021, I think he built a team to try to prove it. Unfortunately, I think he learned that his "elite" defense was too slow at the LB position, so jettisoned all the KVN-types in the offseason (I think his rookie QB also hit a bit of a wall, post-bye, despite having a pretty good season overall).
2022, of course, went bust because of the Patricia/Judge problem. But my sense is that he was prepared to go out there with the same approach -- including the double TEs. Control the ball, run clock, limit big plays on defense, rinse, repeat.
Now, in 2023, with BOB in the fold, more reinforcements on the OL, a stud CB, Juju replacing Jakobi, and Gesicki replacing Jonnu, I think he is going to try this again.
Will it work? Most analysts and fans think it won't. Is Bill being "arrogant"? Maybe. But regardless, the approach Bill and Groh have taken goes against the grain of how most teams construct their rosters. If nothing else, I'm interested to see what happens.
This has nothing to do with a level of investment - for the sake of this discussion, we're specifically talking draft results. Pittsburgh absolutely does not share this in common with the Patriots. They create above average wide receivers out of thin air, they drafted TJ Watt, etc. You can take a running back in the first round if you're able to find George Pickens in the mid-rounds.
Belichick "pretty much always" doing something isn't really helpful to your argument because the game has so drastically changed in the last 20 years and, also, he doesn't have Tom Brady. When your talent at the "premium" positions sucks, investing in non premium positions is a pretty easy way to stay below average.
Filling out the back of the roster with late round picks, UDFAs and cast-offs who can contribute in his system is a talent of his that I don't think is getting enough credit here. Again, not a ton of great successes here recently but a lot in the past. Not just the Malcolm Butlers but also the Brandon Boldens.
I think the other thing BB has done that is different from other GMs is never bottoming out. The rational thing to do when Brady left and they had a lot of dead cap would be to play Hoyer or whoever at QB and essentially tank for one of the top QBs available. That is what I would have done. But they installed Cam and squeezed out 7 wins including going 5-4 down the stretch with a pretty bad team.
Most coaches would have thrown in the towel, especially if they had the job security that BB does, but that's not in his DNA. It may have been to the team's longer-term detriment since they could have had a higher pick and traded down and still gotten Mac and Barmore (or taken a chance on Fields I suppose), but BB would probably tell you that he wanted to teach the players there that every play matters and he was proud of the guys for finishing strong, etc., and that makes them a better team than if they had kinda sorta tanked.
You can disagree with him on this particular decision; I think I do, but it's honorable and it shows in that he has never really had a terrible season other than his last year with the Browns where the team was on its way out of town and his first year with NE (which was understandable with the roster, and they did finish 3-3).
I think the other thing BB has done that is different from other GMs is never bottoming out. The rational thing to do when Brady left and they had a lot of dead cap would be to play Hoyer or whoever at QB and essentially tank for one of the top QBs available. That is what I would have done. But they installed Cam and squeezed out 7 wins including going 5-4 down the stretch with a pretty bad team.
Most coaches would have thrown in the towel, especially if they had the job security that BB does, but that's not in his DNA. It may have been to the team's longer-term detriment since they could have had a higher pick and traded down and still gotten Mac and Barmore (or taken a chance on Fields I suppose), but BB would probably tell you that he wanted to teach the players there that every play matters and he was proud of the guys for finishing strong, etc., and that makes them a better team than if they had kinda sorta tanked.
You can disagree with him on this particular decision; I think I do, but it's honorable and it shows in that he has never really had a terrible season other than his last year with the Browns where the team was on its way out of town and his first year with NE (which was understandable with the roster, and they did finish 3-3).
Results are partially based on investment? The Steelers draft a WR rounds 2-3 almost every year, the Patriots do it once every 3-4 years; that definitely matters. (In other respects, they did or do track more similarly, such as investment in up-the-middle defensive positions).
I dunno, chasing second- and third- tier talent at premium positions doesn't seem like a winner, either. Even with the recent couple down years, the Pats haven't drafted higher than 14. It's tough to find top-tier OT, edge, etc. at that point in the draft, and even more so when you're picking in the 20's like they have been the vast majority of the time.
This has nothing to do with the chase. The question is - does BB find starters and pro-bowlers at premium positions, regardless of their draft position? In recent years, the answer is no.
And if the totality of his drafts are that he's great at finding players like Ram - excellent, "non-premium" players who, in Ram's case especially, probably won't get a second contract with the Patriots - then that's not very helpful in the effort to build a contending team. It will help them win games against bad teams maybe squeak into the playoffs, but that is about it. The non-premium players are only useful when they support premium players.
Re: drafting, I think Bill can take a udfa or late round guy and make him a contributer on the 53 man roster, even if just a special teamer. In that sense, he gets credit for making value there. But when it comes to the first few rounds, he has reached and/or struck out a lot more than one would hope. Jury is out on Mac, Harry was a terrible pick at the time, strange was a consensus reach (who doesn't impress me as a first rounder), etc.
Just looking at what top free agents the premium OGs/Safeties/DT are very close in value to OTs/DEs/CB--a top safety is a very valuable player --15-18 million a year, a very good guard is comparable to a good tackle, and a DT with pass rush ability to comparable to all but the best defensive ends.
Duggar Barmore Strange seem to be extremely valuable draft picks, and probably a lot more valuable than the corners/defensive ends/OTs that were available outside the top ten who the Pats would have been able to pick.
Pittsburgh's WR draft picks the last 10 years (2013-2022). Career AV is in parenthesis.
2013
#79 Markus Wheaton (13)
#186 Justin Brown (1)
2014
#97 Dri Archer (0)
#118 Martavis Bryant (19)
2015
#87 Sammie Coates (4)
2016
#229 Demarcus Ayers (0)
2017
#62 JuJu Smith-Schuster (39)
2018
#60 James Washington (11)
2019
#66 Diontae Johnson (28)
2020
#49 Chase Claypool (19)
2021 - nobody
2022
#20 Kenny Pickett (7)
#138 Calvin Austin (0)
I've bolded the picks that were good picks. There were 5 of them, out of 12 selected over this 10-year period. Obviously they've been a lot better lately than they were before. Their big hits were JuJu, Johnson, Claypool, and Pickett.
So they've done very well yes. But they've also had more misses than hits. Not coincidentally, the hits have been guys they've drafted higher than their misses.
2013
#79 Markus Wheaton (13)
#186 Justin Brown (1)
2014
#97 Dri Archer (0)
#118 Martavis Bryant (19)
2015
#87 Sammie Coates (4)
2016
#229 Demarcus Ayers (0)
2017
#62 JuJu Smith-Schuster (39)
2018
#60 James Washington (11)
2019
#66 Diontae Johnson (28)
2020
#49 Chase Claypool (19)
2021 - nobody
2022
#20 Kenny Pickett (7)
#138 Calvin Austin (0)
I've bolded the picks that were good picks. There were 5 of them, out of 12 selected over this 10-year period. Obviously they've been a lot better lately than they were before. Their big hits were JuJu, Johnson, Claypool, and Pickett.
So they've done very well yes. But they've also had more misses than hits. Not coincidentally, the hits have been guys they've drafted higher than their misses.
I mean of course players who don't play LT/WR/QB/CB/edge rusher are useful and of course it helps any team to get more of those players and of course it makes sense to get, say, a really good DT in Barmore instead of drafting a not good player at a premium position.
What are the "premium" positions? QB, LT, WR, CB? Something like that?
He's been really good drafting and signing CBs - especially utilizing the UDFA market. He's been really good drafting QBs. He's been really good drafting tackles. WRs he's missed on for sure. His Achilles heel.
The bolded gets to the heart of the matter, intentionally or not.
When someone says that Bill doesn't draft well, but hell, most teams don't, then we need to recalibrate what "good drafting" is.
But it's not either/or. Again, this has nothing to do with "value" or "who else could they have picked?". It's a binary question. Has Belichick drafted the most important positions in football well in recent years? and the answer is no for the most part.
My point was he could be a "good drafter" in terms of finding starters, but that's less impactful if he's not also finding players at 2023 "premium positions". I'm bridging the gap between "he's superb" and "he sucks."
Seriously?
Your posts in this thread read like you are absolutely trolling. You may not be, but that is the emotion you elicit from posters in this thread. You discarded the analytical thread without reading it, keep saying the same thing about 7-8 wins from a 3-4 talent win teams (think about this statement for a moment or two, honestly) and now you are telling us posters are gaslighting you?
Having a contrary opinion is perfectly reasonable. But any opinion backed by hot take nonsense, sport radio bullshit, and lacking any sort of tangible argument is not conducive to productive conversation. All because BB did not sign Hopkins?
Just think about what the plan actually is instead of Rudy Pembertoning this thread:
BB is building this team the exact same way he built the beginning of the 20 year dynasty. Top defense, decent to very solid run game with Smith, Faulk, then Dillon, good OL , decent dependable WR similar to Troy Brown, David Patten, David Givens, and Branch, dependable TEs like Wiggins, Graham and Watson, good kicking, good ST. We didn't have the luxury of winning the SB in the first rebuild year last year, but its clear BB was working to get these pieces in place. If you remember, the same roster construction and design allowed Brady to develop and become TFB. It seems clear that BB is developing Jones along the same path.
Have mistakes been made in coaching and drafting? Yep. Every coach isn't close to perfect with drafting or with positional coaches. Look at 2002 after the SB win and tell us how last year was any different. It is clear that BB can build a team through the draft and through FA. Seriously, read Baseball Jones's thread, you might learn something.
Cap, spending, future years, FA, drafting, roster needs all need to be taken into consideration.
Is Jones that QB? We do know he has shown flashes of very good play. We do know he made strides in not turning the ball over as much last season. We don't know yet if his accuracy or defensive reads will adjust or if he will develop into a top tier QB. But we do know that Brady wasn't given Welker and Moss until he developed his skills as a top reader of defenses, an incredibly accurate thrower, and didn't turn the ball over. It's clear that that is what BB is doing with Jones.
The Newton year is comparable to 2000 when we had Bledsoe but little else. BB tore the team down and started the rebuild. Top defense, reliable non-superstars on offense, good to very good special teams in 2001. Yeah, major luck to win the SB that year. Mac's first year isn't all that different from Brady's first year as far as how he played. 2002 and 2022 are very comparable in step back years. BB continued to develop Brady and continued to build and adjust his team until we hit 2003 and 2004 and were the best team by far. Brady was developing still, if you remember. Currently, we have the defensive pieces for a top defense, the non-superstar offensive pieces, good ST and now coaching in place. Will 2023 be comparable to 2003? I don't know but our division is much better than it was in 2003. The AFCE being better isn't BB fault. It's almost like every team is trying to win. Weird.
When BB is gone, the Patriots are going to struggle much more so than where we are now. 20 years spoiled us so much.
It may be but that remains to be seen. I do know that BB is building a defense first team while developing his QB is the plan, similar to that time.
It seems clear BB believes an offense that can be anywhere from 8-15 but a top 5 defense is enough to win. Let's see what happens.
It seems clear BB believes an offense that can be anywhere from 8-15 but a top 5 defense is enough to win. Let's see what happens.
I would be very curious to see what would happen in an alternate universe where Josh didn't leave for the Raiders ~18 months ago. Our perspectives on everything might be wildly different.
They won 10 games two years ago and made the playoffs with this formula. (and a rookie QB)
The division is stacked, so that's going to be a real problem, but they have the talent and coaching to win 10-11 games, if Mac takes the next step in his development.
I agree. And I think their defense is now better than 2 years ago.
Every divisional game is going to be a rock fight, for sure. Should be enjoyable.
Every divisional game is going to be a rock fight, for sure. Should be enjoyable.
The defense has shown no real ability to stop good offenses when they need to, though. Statistically solid #s last year, but look at the QB’s of the teams that they beat. Hardly an impressive list.
Guess we’ll see, clearly will learn a lot about the direction of the team this year. No excuses.
Guess we’ll see, clearly will learn a lot about the direction of the team this year. No excuses.
I'm not discarding BJ's analytical thread, I just don't know why we're talking about results from 10+ years ago when we had the GOAT at our disposal. Talking about BB's lifetime drafting history and the current state of the team are two very different topics in my head, yet people seem to want to blend them into one topic. This team is looking up at half of a stacked conference and is the worst in the division on paper. Kraft may have walked back some of his playoffs-or-bust statements, but if they miss it again he's right to question the direction of this team.
To be blunt, yes you are. You haven't even bothered to read it, which is fine, but by not reading it, your criticisms of my approach are a little hard to take.
I don’t see how it couldn’t be much better. For all the GM shit BB gets, this is the biggest issue (outside of Brady leaving) by far in my opinion is he knew for years Josh was a risk to leave and had zero plan on what to do if he did. Not only did he leave but Bill made a decision so bad that it’s almost unbelievable and in Year 2 of a new QB at his most pivotal point in his career.
I think when BB's career is in the rear view mirror, and we look back at all that has happened, the 2022 offensive coaching staff decisions will go down as maybe his biggest blunder. Other decisions affected one game (4th and 2 in Indy, Butler in the SB), but that one impacted an entire season and it's even possible it derailed the career of their next leader at the QB position (which could impact them for YEARS).
His draft hit rates the last few years are right in line with the study Baseball Jones did. Those hit rates are top 5 in the league. So yeah, it seems like you are discarding his thread.
Instead of asking why they aren't better or why have other teams improved the last few years and then essentially putting that on BB's plate like it is his fault (again, other teams are trying to win too, weird), take a look at the top teams and think for a moment how long those teams have taken to develop and build around their young QBs. Mahomes and KC aside ( and how comparable they are to NE and Brady as far as success), look at Buffalo, LA, Cincy, Jacksonville, Miami, and Baltimore. What do you notice about these teams and the development of their QB? How long does it take to develop and build a team around that young QB? Now look at NE.
Kraft wants to win too. Throwing a non-sequitur around like that doesn't change anything about how he views BB. The Currans of the world don't either. Click bait BS is no different than hot take statements here.
I am in the camp that BB new of the risks involved in losing Josh but the timing of his departure was the hard part. I think BB knew he didn't want to bring in anyone other than BoB once the role was vacant but he also knew he would have to wait a year for it. So, he made that decision. It was not a good one.
It’s kind of premature to know how big a blunder the coaching staff was last year, until we see what happens this year, no? If Mac stumbles around to another mediocre season, then I imagine the role of the coaching staff in the performance of the offense may be reassessed, and the team will be looking for a new QB. Hopefully he shows a lot of growth, the team makes the playoffs and we can all agree that it really was Patricia’s fault.