2023 Bullpen
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
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Sean McAdams take on bullpen games...
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/07/bullpen-games-remain-a-losing-proposition-for-red-sox-mcadam.html
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/07/bullpen-games-remain-a-losing-proposition-for-red-sox-mcadam.html
I'm saying Scott might be worse - Scott's career MLB - 35.1 IP, 10.44 ERA, 2.208 WHIP, 6.08 FIP, 43 ERA+
SSS but I’m liking Murph and Walters in the pen. At this point it’s probably best for them to stick in that role. Hopefully when Schreiber gets back it’s not one of them sent back to AAA.
I read that on Masslive as well. Not all bullpen games are equal though. Lower market teams utilize them as they don't go six/seven deep in their pitching staff with traditional starters. The Sox are doing it because they've lost most of their starting rotation to injuries. It's either this or calling up pitchers from the minors (most of whom aren't ready yet). The Sox aren't losing bullpen games because the strategy is bad, they're losing bullpen games because they lack pitchers on their rosters that have been stretched out more than three innings.
While true, they could choose to start Pivetta, Murphy, Walter- guys who have started as recently as this year, right? Not sure it would make any meaningful difference, you’d have the same pitchers pitching, just in a different order. I am not entirely sure that starting a guy like Bernardino and burning your best lefty reliever in the 1st-2nd inning is a great idea but I also admit to not fully understanding the strategic argument of openers anyways.
It's hard to get on board with any strategy that asks Kaleb Ort and Justin Garza to pitch anything but the lowest-leverage innings. Obviously the options are limited, but the opener/bullpen game hasn't worked out because this bullpen isn't deep enough right now, it's more or less Russian roulette to run as many of those arms out there as possible; you're throwing games that way.
I mean, I said it with respect to Tilt going to Tampa, but same thing with LA. You just KNEW that he would be good somewhere else. He still throws 97 with a good slider. Other teams seem to turn guys like that into superstars.
Sunday was essentially a bullpen game as well when Whitlock had to leave after one inning. Pivetta went four and will probably be in the rotation later in the week.
That said, this move was borne more from desperation and whatever arms that they had available rather than any grand scheme. I mean, someone had to pitch.
Speaking of the bullpen, has anyone noticed Winckowski turning into a pumpkin? He’s now up to a 4.80 FIP. 6.26 ERA since May; righties are crushing him. Might be related to the teams desire to keep Pivetta in the pen, at least until Schreiber is back.
McAdam’s piece was fair, IMHO. His point is that the franchise has an alarming lack of depth at SP at the AAAA level. We’re going through yet another run of injuries at the MLB level, and there’s no 7th/8th/9th starters in the system. The bullpen games are a manifestation of that weakness.
But there was a ton of depth, assuming opening day rotation to be Sale, Pivetta, Kluber, Houck and Whitlock.
For depth there was Bello, Crawford, Winchowski, Paxton. That's 9 deep. Deep enough that they felt comfortable trading (which EVERY SoSH member was thoroughly behind) Seabold (who embarrased them earlier this year). Then add Murphy and Walters.
They're pretty barren now in the upper mL's because of injury (some expected... others not) shitty performance (Kluber, Pivetta). Beginning the season, I definitely wouldn't look at that cluster of pitchers and think... wow... there's no depth.
Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy, Walter, Mata.
I haven't read the article, but is Sean McAdam just an increasingly bitter old man who can't count?
(PS - scooped by another SoSH'er who can count.)
McAdam is the furthest thing from bitter or hot takey.
Pivetta needs to go back to the rotation. They probably need to move a couple of those guys who flopped there earlier this season too. That’s part of McAdam’s point. We created a dearth of depth by moving a bunch of guys to the pen.
Pivetta needs to go back to the rotation. They probably need to move a couple of those guys who flopped there earlier this season too. That’s part of McAdam’s point. We created a dearth of depth by moving a bunch of guys to the pen.
Crawford and Winckowski broke camp with the major league team, though. Bello was injured.
The AAA depth was Mata, Walter, and Murphy. Mata is injured and the team isn’t comfortable starting either of the other two.
The AAA depth was Mata, Walter, and Murphy. Mata is injured and the team isn’t comfortable starting either of the other two.
Aren't they already on their 7th/8th/9th starters though? What they're lacking is 10th/11th/12th starters because some of the guys they hoped would take a step forward took a step back instead.
I mean, they started the season with this list of starters on the 40-man roster:
Sale
Kluber
Pivetta
Houck
Whitlock
Bello
Crawford
Winckowski
Paxton
Mata
Walter
Murphy
Five of them are on the IL, three of them are in the MLB bullpen, and one's on paternity leave. How deep is their MLB-ready starting pitching supposed to reasonably go?
Yep, I think this is accurate. At the start of the year they looked to be in decent shape, both at the major league level and in the depth department. When a bunch of guys get injured and then others crap out, yeah, it cuts into the depth pretty quickly. They don't have an endless supply of quality MLB arms in the system, that's for sure.
Also wanted to add because of 40man roster constraints, it's not like it's possible just to have a bunch of high quality (better than Pivetta) starters hanging out in AAA.
I'm sure the Sox could trade some meh prospects for meh MLB-quality starters if they want to improve their pitching depth. Take Trevor Williams of the Nationals, for example. They're going nowhere. He's 31. Not making much but still. He's got a 4.34 era this year (to go along with a 1.42 whip and 6.7 k/9). He's just a semi-decent MLB filler in a rotation. Nothing remotely that the Nationals are building around. His career era (with 4 teams) is 4.27 (97 era+). Not horrendous. Nothing special. But not the worst MLB pitcher and right now is the kind of guy the Red Sox could use.
What would it take to get him? Probably not too much. Maybe a top 25-30 prospect in the Sox' system? Might not take much more than that.
NOTE: I'm not saying the Red Sox should try to trade for him. But this is the kind of guy that's likely available for not a huge cost if they want to add semi-decent MLB starting pitching.
What would it take to get him? Probably not too much. Maybe a top 25-30 prospect in the Sox' system? Might not take much more than that.
NOTE: I'm not saying the Red Sox should try to trade for him. But this is the kind of guy that's likely available for not a huge cost if they want to add semi-decent MLB starting pitching.
Yeah, he's been pretty terrible. Feels like he gives up multiple runs every time he comes in lately. Definitely not feeling bullpen ace vibes from him right now.
Again, part of his point is that guys like Winkowski, Pivetta, Walter and Murphy were moved to the pen. And it seems the org is not eager to move them back. That’s a choice, and it has harmed our starting depth.
I imagine McAdam thinks it’s reasonable to go 10-12 deep but we’ve removed 4 guys from that.
If Winkowski, Murphy, Walter are horrific starting pitchers at the major league level, but serviceable relievers, aren't you increasing your depth by moving them to the pen?
I feel like the Adams logic is backwards.
I feel like the Adams logic is backwards.
One of Walter's appearances so far was a 6+ inning effort following an opener, so it's not like he can't move to the rotation or effectively do so as a bulk guy following an opener, so I hesitate to call him removed from the starting depth chart. Same with Pivetta to a lesser extent. In his last two appearances, he threw 59 and 67 pitches. Moving him into a starting spot (or bulk spot) is also fairly straight forward and I hesitate to discount him as starting depth either. Effectiveness is a different matter, but when you've got five guys on the IL/paternity list, beggars really can't be choosers.
For sure. And I suspect that was what McAdam was getting at. Let these guys start and see if we can get 5-6 decent innings out of them. Or we can keep throwing Ort out there in high leverage innings.
I get the need for a bullpen game when circumstances warrant it. I’m a little nervous we’re being too cute though.
In a vacuum, sure, it'd be nice if they were all stretched out, but that's not how things work. Obviously Pivetta and Winckowski got moved to the pen because Houck and Whitlock were out-pitching them. Then one of them got a bone bruise and the other one got his face broken. Sale also went down. We had five starters, and then three of them went down with injuries. Pivetta got moved to the pen because was had so much depth in the first place.
Murphy was awful as a starter at AAA, so I'm not sure how he would've been "depth" anymore than Walter. Walter is stretched out as a starter, but he's also sucked out loud at AAA. Winckowski appears to be falling apart at the seams as a reliever, so I'm not sure how asking him to pitch longer innings would make sense.
They appear to be trying to stretch Pivetta back out so he can start, but as depth goes, he is what he is. If he "started" instead of Ort or Bernardino the other night, he still would've been only able to go 3 or 4 innings.
And as painful as it is to see Bernardino or Ort start a game, giving Pivetta the reigns in the first inning and then bringing Ort in around inning five or six when the wheels come off would end just as badly. We could release Ort now... More likely, he goes back down to AAA when Schreiber comes back. The bullpen games are meant to optimize these guys - give Murphy and Pivetta three innings instead of five limits their exposure. These are guys who really struggle to get through the order twice, nevermind three times.
If we'd moved Houck and Whitlock to the pen at the beginning of the year, everyone would be complaining that Winckowski and Pivetta had ERAs over 5 and that we should've stretched out Whitlock and Houck instead.
All fair points. You’re talking to a guy who’s coming around to the belief that pitchers today throw too little, not too much. So I’m likely outside the norm on the whole “stretching out” dynamic.
Totally fair. I don't really like it either. Watching Pivetta fall apart in the fourth inning after looking lights out for three innings confuses the hell out of me, but I'm trying to accept that reality.
Interesting note on Winckowski, who looked like his early-season dominating self last night:
Josh Winckowski did damage on the mound by limiting it on the base paths - The Boston Globe
Josh Winckowski did damage on the mound by limiting it on the base paths - The Boston Globe
What I find encouraging is that they identified the issue and fixed it in a relatively short amount of time... kudos to the pitching staff.
Ah, Ort was broken. That explains a lot.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1677406780207374339
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1677406780207374339
Am I the only one who hates the term “bulk role”? It all seems like ridiculous semantics. Guy pitched 5 innings, but they were innings 3-7, which is so much different than 1-5, because….reasons?
It's a bit silly, but not allowing a team to stack up on lefties is hugely important for Pivetta's success at this point (or if they want to run a bunch of lefties against Bernardino for 2 innings that's fine, too).
I think the main reason is that the bulk pitcher can (ideally) face a team’s worst hitters three times through before he faces their best hitters three times. That ensures the team can get a fresh relief arm to pitch against the top of the lineup — once as the “opener” and again in the 8th or whatever. It's a way of maximizing the effectiveness of mediocre starters.
Opposing teams can counter that based on handedness, but they’re probably not going to shift their best hitters from the 1-4 to the 6-9 spots in the lineup.
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Right, but there's not really a perfect counter. Their 3 options are:
1) Make Bernardino's life easier.
2) Make Pivetta’s life easier.
3) Run through their bench early.
& yeah, starting with the bottom of the order is an easier way to ease into the game, too.
Sure, but that only work if the opener sets down the order in a row.
Pivetta started the third, and faced 9-1-2, to start.
I dunno, feels like it all likely evens out. Starting your best lefty reliever means he isn’t available late in the game, if needed, and you lose that. But you have it earlier in.
Meh.
If they did stock up on LHB, you could always follow up Bernardino with another LHP too instead of going straight to Pivetta.
I admit that I definitely haven't grasped all the nuances of an opener either. But I guess that shortening the game is shortening the game, whether it's at the front end or back end.
Yeah, i think that makes sense. Conceptually, if you can use your weaker pitchers to get outs earlier in the game, then you can have better pitchers available to get more meaningful outs later in the game, I guess? It’s all sort of weird to think through as it kind of goes against what a lot of us grew up thinking about the game, or something.
But I think this is more the classic Moneyball way of thinking. It's all about getting 27 outs, and they're all equally important. But...the fact that one of your best pitchers closes and someone far more fungible opens would go against this.
I really don't know.
There's an aspect of using lesser pitchers when there's greater margin for error, even if it is against the top of the order.
When the opener is someone shitty (let's call him Raleb Ert), it gets 6 (or so) outs out of the way with the Sox having 7 innings to overcome whatever turds he's left behind, while an arguably better pitcher is on the mound.
Reverse it, and there's less time to clean up Ert's mess.
There's a lot of good reasoning in the last few posts. I'd love to hear how the teams view it.