Was he playing like 20-30 minutes a game to get that kind of consistency? Cuz I have to imagine some players do better when they have minutes, but not when they're sporadic.
2023-24 Celtics
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They definitely ran a crunch time offense against the Lakers, it was clear to pretty much everyone I thought. They ran a bunch of similar sets down the stretch last night.
The idea isn’t to not have Tatum take those shots, it’s so that the offense can be more unpredictable, and for there to be other options if it isn’t there for Tatum. He’s given it up to KP, White, and Jaylen in crunch time all season, so it’s exactly what you’d hope for.
But a majority of the time, end of games still comes down to your best player taking and hopefully making those shots. He tied the game, then missed a really good look to win it. He’s still a guy you absolutely want taking a lot of shots in those situations. I’m sure he’s missed a few of these since this tweet in February, but his numbers in the last 24-30 seconds are ridiculous.
View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1629753206594052096
View: https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1629696385070055425?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Joe talked about what they were doing in the fourth in his press conference. To be clear.. you’re saying giving the ball to Tatum at all in the final few possessions was/is a mistake? That they should have had KP shoot everything?
The Celtics were up 8 points with around 10 min to go in the game. That's 3 possessions which can turn around the lead in 30-45 seconds. I'd argue that this is very close. The only reason it wasn't close after that point was due to the Celtics scoring on 11 of their next 15 possessions.
This is a weird stat that is so noisy. For us to have good "crunch time" numbers vs the Lakers we have first had to relinquish a lead of 5+ before playing well enough to extend it back out. The team, and individual players "crunch time" stats are penalized for taking care of business with the 8-pt lead.
The other thing is that teams with leads late in the game are nearly always slowing the pace to manage the number of possessions remaining in the game and avoid turnovers. This results in lower shooting percentages when looking at this number without context yet by taking this approach can increase your teams win probability.
Here's the last few minutes of the Pistons game plus overtime:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHRzJl9zgSw
The play for Tatum is about three minutes in. Watching it again, it was pretty clearly called ahead of time — it's very deliberate, everyone's on the same page. But it's the same play that we've so many times late in close games: a screen that gets Tatum on the guard's defender at the wing. Maybe I just can't shake the memories of past disappointments, but I hate this play; it's gone wrong so many times, as it does here. I get mixing things up — maybe it's excessive to go White/KP on each and every play. But if it's working...
I'm also still mildly haunted by the end of regulation against Golden State, when Tatum came and got the ball from Holiday and ended up shooting a stepback three. We have too many options to settle for Tatum isolations late, IMO. And I worry that he may be struggling to adjust to that idea.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHRzJl9zgSw
The play for Tatum is about three minutes in. Watching it again, it was pretty clearly called ahead of time — it's very deliberate, everyone's on the same page. But it's the same play that we've so many times late in close games: a screen that gets Tatum on the guard's defender at the wing. Maybe I just can't shake the memories of past disappointments, but I hate this play; it's gone wrong so many times, as it does here. I get mixing things up — maybe it's excessive to go White/KP on each and every play. But if it's working...
I'm also still mildly haunted by the end of regulation against Golden State, when Tatum came and got the ball from Holiday and ended up shooting a stepback three. We have too many options to settle for Tatum isolations late, IMO. And I worry that he may be struggling to adjust to that idea.
It’s just a case of people remembering misses more than makes.
crunch time shots for the season
Tatum 26
Jaylen 20
KP 16
White 15
That seems pretty damn balanced, as far as shot distribution. Tatum just is really good at getting to the line in crunch time, (13-16, White and Jaylen are 11-12 combined) which is a weapon in of itself. He has 6 assists in crunch time, which the only non guards to have more are Giannis, Jokic, Gordon, and Durant.
I don’t see much evidence of him struggling to adjust to that idea. I posted the numbers too, he’s historically efficient at shots in the last 30 seconds or so.
I'm n
That was about as good as you're ever going to get in a tie game with 4 seconds left, barring a defensive brainfart for a layup.
This was a much, much better shot than the one against GS. He probably hits that at 40-47%, whereas the GS one was more like a 20-30% proposition.
That was about as good as you're ever going to get in a tie game with 4 seconds left, barring a defensive brainfart for a layup.
The play I was describing wasn't the one at the end of regulation; it was the one that happened with about 1:20 left. (I didn't love the last play either, to be honest, but I agree it wasn't a terrible look, and it's not easy to get great looks with 4 seconds left.)
Agree
“Crunch Time” is defined as less than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter or overtime with neither team ahead by more than five points.
The stat is pretty limiting in the modern NBA. 10pt leads in the last half of Q4 are tenuous.
Boston ran their most efficient/crunch-time offense against the Lakers over the last 7;30 minutes in Q4. They did the same against the Pistons last night when needed.
DW initiates with KP/JT up top (horns) and Jrue/Al in the Corners. Expect more of it when they need a hoop. They will also develop more actions out of it as the season progresses.
The site that Steve F referenced - https://www.pbpstats.com/totals/nba/team - uses win probability to sort out its numbers rather than "clutch time". Probably a better way of looking at things than the simple definition of "clutch time".
The possession that led to the goaltend they also ran an iso set for Tatum after an initial White/KP action. Tatum got the ball in the high post in isolation and drove effectively and got the bucket.
It’s also worth noting that in situations where running the clock down is important, shot quality for everyone will decline. Tatum draws a lot of ire here for being the guy trusted in those scenarios (just as PP used to), but the reality is that clock management matters too and a coaching decision is being made to sacrifice shot quality for control of the clock. It’s also hard to imagine someone else on the team scoring more efficiently in those scenarios where the defensive can key on a single action and is playing at max effort. I’m not saying Tatum can’t do better. I like the shift last night to high post/elbow actions and hope we see more of that, but the team isn’t going to shift to Jaylen or Porzingis isos in these scenarios and it’s hard to see them working better than Tatum isos anyway.
When all 5 starters are out there in the 4th/OT (102 possesions):
Porzingis has been the most efficient source of offense, primarily because he gets to the line so often. (Edit: White has the highest TS%, but those shooting numbers aren't sustainable.)
Porzingis has been the most efficient source of offense, primarily because he gets to the line so often. (Edit: White has the highest TS%, but those shooting numbers aren't sustainable.)
Getting into the holiday spirit at 1:04 with {paraphrase} "Always have a fall guy."
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1740797835241472246
Not sure why the C's didn't split up Porzingis and Horford on this back-to-back, as they had been doing.
Not sure why the C's didn't split up Porzingis and Horford on this back-to-back, as they had been doing.
Without any one of our 6 starters, we should still beat most teams and be no worst than 50-50 against even the best.
Missing Horford plus one of the others on that list above, we should still be favored against Toronto at home. They're 12-18 for a reason. We're on a back-to-back and Toronto has a rest advantage, true, but they're also in the middle of a 3-games-in-4-days road trip, having played in Washington on Wednesday and having to play in Detroit tomorrow. They may rest or manage the minutes of some of their players too.
If we sit 3 or more of our starters, though, I'll be a little disappointed. I don't want to give up the perfect home record without an absolute rock fight. If it's later in the season and we're 28-4 at home (or something), then yeah, whatever. But as long as it's 100%, it'd be a shame to just toss that away. Call me a short-term thinker if you like, I'm also a fan who likes that kind of stuff.
Missing Horford plus one of the others on that list above, we should still be favored against Toronto at home. They're 12-18 for a reason. We're on a back-to-back and Toronto has a rest advantage, true, but they're also in the middle of a 3-games-in-4-days road trip, having played in Washington on Wednesday and having to play in Detroit tomorrow. They may rest or manage the minutes of some of their players too.
If we sit 3 or more of our starters, though, I'll be a little disappointed. I don't want to give up the perfect home record without an absolute rock fight. If it's later in the season and we're 28-4 at home (or something), then yeah, whatever. But as long as it's 100%, it'd be a shame to just toss that away. Call me a short-term thinker if you like, I'm also a fan who likes that kind of stuff.
I get it, as a fan. I also won't be as excited to watch, if everyone sits.
However, *every* year before the season we say "I just want them to stay healthy and not worry about the regular season." And then every year, guys are banged up, there's a b2b, but we still want them to play....
Why would Toronto rest anyone as the already rested team? They are going to be at full strength with possibly the exception of Garrett Temple who does have an injury.
A December 29th game against a mid Raptors team at home with most of the starting line-up and sixth man either questionable or out? This team had to work to give Detroit hope last night and have been punishing everyone, except GS, when they are full strength. This suddenly may be one of the more intriguing match-ups of the early season. Does anyone emerge from the bench mob tonight?
I think it was nothing more than having planned to sit Horford on the second left of a B2B with the hope that KP isn't pushed to 40 min in an OT game against Detroit. Having him go normal rotation and sitting out the 4Q of a comfortable win very likely results in him playing tonight.
Brian Robb is reporting that JDD, Peterson, and Walsh will be unavailable due to G League assignment.
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/12/celtics-injury-report-4-starters-listed-vs-raptors-game-friday.html
That leads me to think they won't do a clean scratch of all 5 injured guys.
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/12/celtics-injury-report-4-starters-listed-vs-raptors-game-friday.html
That leads me to think they won't do a clean scratch of all 5 injured guys.
You are correct - in my haste to post I wasn't clear. Point is that this team has largely been handling the opposition when at or near full strength. I welcome the opportunity to see how a diminished rotation deals with Toronto.
And still had a 17 point second half lead. When they are full strength they are a bear.
I think Mazzulla is doing it right with the wholesale rest. Takes *all* the pressure off and allows everyone to play free. I recall a game in the Stevens era (maybe against the Wiz or maybe a good team) where something similar happened and they lost in OT. Or maybe they won. Doesn't matter. These are the games that -- like long road trips -- bring teams together.
Svi is gonna light it up. And probably get lit a little, too.
Svi is gonna light it up. And probably get lit a little, too.
He has been fantastic at filling whatever role the team needs at a given time - distributor, creator, defensive specialist for the other team's best player and he can score at every level. He is the X factor player many successful teams seem to have in addition to their *headline* stars.
As far as this game, their depth was on display tonight. It certainly wasn't pretty but they got it done in a game past editions would likely have lost due to the absences and/or the backend of a B2B.
One of the most fun games of the year, in many ways.
Sometimes we say that 3-point make-or-miss masks a Celtics 25 point blowout, and turns it into a 5 point win. Well, this game was the exact opposite. They couldn't miss from 3 for the first three quarters, and that made only-ok offensive process look better than it was.
In the 4th, the 3s totally stopped falling, and the bench unit with Jrue+DWhite was awful.
The rest....go watch it.
In all seriousness though, we saw some of DWhite's limitations in that bad 4th quarter stretch. He and Jrue really really need one of JB/Tatum/KP with them to have a true scorer to work with and off of.
Without that, DWhite kept getting cut off by Toronto's switching, and had to reset a number of possessions without an advantage. Things would have looked better if he or PP could have hit some open 3s in that time, but I don't think that changes the overall point much.
He's really really good, but there are limits to his scoring game in certain lineups.
That was an impressive win because they were down 3 of their top 6 (both centers) and the managed to grit out the win anyway.
It was like 3 games in one: 1) the first quarter where their hot shooting (led by 4 threes and 15 points from Brown) got them out to a 15 point lead, 2) the middle quarters where they maintained their scoring but were matched by Toronto, in part because their turnover woes returned, and 3) the 4th quarter, which turned out to be a game in itself, where Toronto crushed their bench unit early on to erase a 13 point deficit in under 4 minutes and then the Celtics finally tightened up their defense and let White (who had shot terribly for most of the game) provide the offense.
This game saw the good and the bad of Jaylen Brown: 40 minutes, 31 points on 11-16 shooting, 5-6 from three, 10 rebounds (his first double-double of the season), 6 assists... but 7 turnovers, the leading offender on a Celtic team that turned it over 16 times (vs. Toronto's 4). Most of Brown's damage was done in the first half, when he scored 24 points on 8 of 10 shooting including 5-6 from three, plus 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and just 2 turnovers. Things fell apart on him in the third quarter, when he played the full 12 minutes and scored only 2 points (1-4) with 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2 turnovers). In the 4th he was a bit better but still pedestrian: 5 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 2 turnovers. For the game, Brown was a +8, meaning that the Celtics were a -10 during the 8 minutes when he sat. But the entirety of that -10 happened in the first 3:44 of the 4th quarter when the Celtics blew most of a 13-point lead.
Kornet had his Celtic career game, playing 33 minutes and scoring 20 points on 9-11 shooting, along with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and just one turnover. During the terrible 18-3 Toronto run to start the 4th, Kornet was the 3, going through someone's arm to get to the rim for a putback and the htting the FT.
White was the Celtics second leading scorer with 21 points, which he managed despite an awful shooting line (5 of 19, including 2-10 from three) because he got himself to the line a lot and was a perfect 9-9. His secondary stats were good: 5 rebounds, team leading 7 assists, the only 3 Celtic steals in the game, and his 7th (I think) straight 2-block game, though he did turn it over 3 times. But the story of this game is White's play late in the 4th quarter when he took over late despite his poor shooting night. He led the team with 9 points in the quarter despite shooting only 2-6. But that is only half the story. White scored all 9 of his points in a 3:38 minute span late in the quarter when the Celtics went on an 11-4 run to go up by three:
Holiday looks like he might be the next Celtic due for a maintenance day. He shot 5 for 15 in this one without much in the way of secondary stats. And in the finals econds he was fouled twice and hit only 204, keeping the drama going for longer than it needed to. Plus he was listed as questionable before the game. His 5-15 was 3-5 from three but only 2-10 from 2, which is not characteristic of him.
The last couple of games have exposed the Celtics bench a bit (granted, playing without multiple starters will do that). In the Detroit game, without Brown, Mazzulla tried a 4th quarter lineup with 3 guards (White, Holiday, and Pritchard) and that unit struggled to get stops. Against Toronto, missing KP, Al, and Tatum, seemed to have a bigger impact on the defense than the offense. AFter holding Toronto to 20 in the first quarter, the Raptors got three 30-point quarters. Although the -12 tunrover differential was a factor there along with the defense. In the 4th, after the 18-3 run, the Celtics D did started getting stops.
It was like 3 games in one: 1) the first quarter where their hot shooting (led by 4 threes and 15 points from Brown) got them out to a 15 point lead, 2) the middle quarters where they maintained their scoring but were matched by Toronto, in part because their turnover woes returned, and 3) the 4th quarter, which turned out to be a game in itself, where Toronto crushed their bench unit early on to erase a 13 point deficit in under 4 minutes and then the Celtics finally tightened up their defense and let White (who had shot terribly for most of the game) provide the offense.
This game saw the good and the bad of Jaylen Brown: 40 minutes, 31 points on 11-16 shooting, 5-6 from three, 10 rebounds (his first double-double of the season), 6 assists... but 7 turnovers, the leading offender on a Celtic team that turned it over 16 times (vs. Toronto's 4). Most of Brown's damage was done in the first half, when he scored 24 points on 8 of 10 shooting including 5-6 from three, plus 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and just 2 turnovers. Things fell apart on him in the third quarter, when he played the full 12 minutes and scored only 2 points (1-4) with 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2 turnovers). In the 4th he was a bit better but still pedestrian: 5 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 2 turnovers. For the game, Brown was a +8, meaning that the Celtics were a -10 during the 8 minutes when he sat. But the entirety of that -10 happened in the first 3:44 of the 4th quarter when the Celtics blew most of a 13-point lead.
Kornet had his Celtic career game, playing 33 minutes and scoring 20 points on 9-11 shooting, along with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and just one turnover. During the terrible 18-3 Toronto run to start the 4th, Kornet was the 3, going through someone's arm to get to the rim for a putback and the htting the FT.
White was the Celtics second leading scorer with 21 points, which he managed despite an awful shooting line (5 of 19, including 2-10 from three) because he got himself to the line a lot and was a perfect 9-9. His secondary stats were good: 5 rebounds, team leading 7 assists, the only 3 Celtic steals in the game, and his 7th (I think) straight 2-block game, though he did turn it over 3 times. But the story of this game is White's play late in the 4th quarter when he took over late despite his poor shooting night. He led the team with 9 points in the quarter despite shooting only 2-6. But that is only half the story. White scored all 9 of his points in a 3:38 minute span late in the quarter when the Celtics went on an 11-4 run to go up by three:
- At 4:42, down 109-105, shooting foul against White and he makes both, 109-107.
- Brown gets a rebound at 3:42 with, Toronto defends them well and the ball gets to White with the clock running down... but he drills a defended step-back three to put the Celtics up 110-109.
- After a Toronto FT, a White missed three, and a Toronto three, and a Brown drive for a layup, Toronto is back up by 1, 113-112. WHite is fouled and makes both to put the Celtics up 114-113 at 1:38.
- White rebounds a Toronto miss and goes strong to the basket between 2 defenders, 116-113 at 1:04
Holiday looks like he might be the next Celtic due for a maintenance day. He shot 5 for 15 in this one without much in the way of secondary stats. And in the finals econds he was fouled twice and hit only 204, keeping the drama going for longer than it needed to. Plus he was listed as questionable before the game. His 5-15 was 3-5 from three but only 2-10 from 2, which is not characteristic of him.
The last couple of games have exposed the Celtics bench a bit (granted, playing without multiple starters will do that). In the Detroit game, without Brown, Mazzulla tried a 4th quarter lineup with 3 guards (White, Holiday, and Pritchard) and that unit struggled to get stops. Against Toronto, missing KP, Al, and Tatum, seemed to have a bigger impact on the defense than the offense. AFter holding Toronto to 20 in the first quarter, the Raptors got three 30-point quarters. Although the -12 tunrover differential was a factor there along with the defense. In the 4th, after the 18-3 run, the Celtics D did started getting stops.
Jrue looked really out of sorts to me in this one. I wonder if he needed a day off but could not take one with the centers and Tatum out.
Yeah, they probably need to find rest for him soon. San Antonio would make the most sense.
There is just a very different feel about this team compared to last year. Last season started 21-5 but largely on the back of some extremely hot shooting which hid some not great D. They then lost 5 of 6 starting out west and losing twice to Orlando. That 21-5 wasn’t their high water mark in terms of games over .500 but I don’t think many would argue that it was ever the same after that initial push.
They’re winning in more ways, winning close games, doing it with different combinations of players, etc. It’s a better team, more well-rounded, better coached, more talented, and with a much stronger sense of what it’s doing game to game. There’s always stuff to fix and tweak but it’s impossible not to be excited. They aren’t even really having the “only one ball” issue that can always hypothetically hurt a team of stars. But it’s a very well-composed roster.
They’re winning in more ways, winning close games, doing it with different combinations of players, etc. It’s a better team, more well-rounded, better coached, more talented, and with a much stronger sense of what it’s doing game to game. There’s always stuff to fix and tweak but it’s impossible not to be excited. They aren’t even really having the “only one ball” issue that can always hypothetically hurt a team of stars. But it’s a very well-composed roster.
The simplest way I can put it is that this is the first Celtics team in awhile that feels like it cares more and knows more about itself than the fans do.
Obviously the players care more than I ever will, but there have been times the past few years when it's felt like "seriously, guys? We all knew you would have this letdown, or run against you, bad schedule spot, etc, but you still acted like it was a surprise."
This team isn't perfect. That's not possible, since injuries, energy levels, schedule, and variance all happen. However, it feels like the guys know all that, and are ready to find ways through it.
They EASILY could have folded in the 4th when Toronto was hitting everything and the Cs were bricking open looks. But basketball is a game of runs, and they stuck with the process to let their own run eventually happen.
When do we think the inevitable home loss is going to occur? I'm looking at Jan 10 vs. the Wolves. First night of a B2B with @ MIL the following night.
I think after taking it on the chin in Minnesota, and the TWolves having shown themselves to be a contender, they will be very interested in flipping that around on them. Maybe they lose, but I expect they'll be up for that game.
March 14 vs Phoenix. First game home from 5-game road trip after losing edge playing Blazers/Jazz on B2B's.
For all the talk of "easiest schedule in the league" from here on out, the Celtics in January play at OKC (21-9), two straight at Indy (only 16-14, but humiliated the Celtics in the in-season tournament game earlier), at home vs Minnesota (21-7), at Milwaukee (24-8), at home vs. Houston (only 15-15 but Ime's return with a very good defensive team). It's not like they can just cruise through the next couple of weeks.
Yeah, the NBA is challenging for everyone. Lots of good teams this year!
However, the reason the Celtics' schedule is "easy" is that they've only "used up" one each of their Pistons, Hornets, Wizards, Bulls and Hawks games, and have both Spurs and Blazers games left.