2023-24 Celtics

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Kelly Olynyk, in the buyout market, would be that KP/Al injury insurance hedge

Would you sacrifice Payton's shooting for
1. Caruso if the cost was PP + Firsts + filler?
2. Thybulle if the cost was PP + Seconds + filler?
If they can't get to Olynk's $10.2M average salary in a trade because they can't aggregate more than 1 minimum salary guy (according to the article posted upthread or a different thread; I can't remember), I don't see how the Cs get to Thybulle ($11M) and I don't think they can get to Caruso ($9.245) since I believe PP has base year compensation issues.

With regards to trades, I think the Cs would only pull the trigger on someone who fits into the GW trade exception.
 

lovegtm

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If they can't get to Olynk's $10.2M average salary in a trade because they can't aggregate more than 1 minimum salary guy (according to the article posted upthread or a different thread; I can't remember), I don't see how the Cs get to Thybulle ($11M) and I don't think they can get to Caruso ($9.245) since I believe PP has base year compensation issues.

With regards to trades, I think the Cs would only pull the trigger on someone who fits into the GW trade exception.
Olynyk is 12.2M, which is a lot harder than Caruso's 9.2.
 

benhogan

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No and hell no.
Yea, I'm getting queasy on moving PP. He has lots of experience. Adds value in multiple ways offensively. Can be hidden defensively versus 2nd units.

AND like it or not Boston will need dirt-cheap contracts to fill out the bench

This is what I'm seeing on basketball ref
Caruso $9.46M
Thybulle $10.5M
Olynyk $12.2M
 

the moops

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Yea, I'm getting queasy on moving PP. He has lots of experience. Adds value in multiple ways offensively. Can be hidden defensively versus 2nd units.

AND like it or not Boston will need dirt-cheap contracts to fill out the bench

This is what I'm seeing on basketball ref
Caruso $9.46M
Thybulle $10.5M
Olynyk $12.2M
They can get to Caruso money easy with Pritchard, Kornet, Brissett. But CHI will have better offers than a late first and those salaries/players.

I think anyone is nuts who says no to that sort of deal though. Caruso is shooting the shit out of the ball and would become the best guard/wing defender on this team, which says a whole lot considering that is a major strength of this team right now
 

mcpickl

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Kelly Olynyk, in the buyout market, would be that KP/Al injury insurance hedge

Would you sacrifice Payton's shooting for
1. Caruso if the cost was PP + Firsts + filler?
2. Thybulle if the cost was PP + Seconds + filler?

I'd be stunned if Olynyk is bought out. He has value and should be easily tradeable to a team that has matching salary.

I have zero issue sacrificing Paytons shooting (for Caruso yes but not for firsts plural, and not for Thybulle really at all), but that doesn't really solve their issue.

That would upgrade their 8th man, but still leave them a man short. They need nine, so that they'll still have a good eight if one is injured.

I think what they really need is a guy better than, or at least more multi-skilled, than Hauser/Pritchard to slot in as their 7th man, and bump Hauser/Pritchard down a spot in the rotation.
 

mcpickl

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If they can't get to Olynk's $10.2M average salary in a trade because they can't aggregate more than 1 minimum salary guy (according to the article posted upthread or a different thread; I can't remember), I don't see how the Cs get to Thybulle ($11M) and I don't think they can get to Caruso ($9.245) since I believe PP has base year compensation issues.

With regards to trades, I think the Cs would only pull the trigger on someone who fits into the GW trade exception.
This rule only applies from July 1st til December 15th.

They can combine all the minimum salaries they want, but would then be a roster spot issue for the other team in the trade.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I'd be stunned if Olynyk is bought out. He has value and should be easily tradeable to a team that has matching salary.

I have zero issue sacrificing Paytons shooting (for Caruso yes but not for firsts plural, and not for Thybulle really at all), but that doesn't really solve their issue.

That would upgrade their 8th man, but still leave them a man short. They need nine, so that they'll still have a good eight if one is injured.

I think what they really need is a guy better than, or at least more multi-skilled, than Hauser/Pritchard to slot in as their 7th man, and bump Hauser/Pritchard down a spot in the rotation.
I tend to doubt they can upgrade 7th spot but agree the goal is a versatile guy who can deepen rotation. Best realistic guy I’ve heard—using Grant exception so it’s adding to depth—-is Jon Konchar.
 

the moops

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I tend to doubt they can upgrade 7th spot but agree the goal is a versatile guy who can deepen rotation. Best realistic guy I’ve heard—using Grant exception so it’s adding to depth—-is Jon Konchar.
Couple other names that fit into the 6.2 mill exception.

Jevon Carter, Dean Wade, Isaiah Stewart, Corey Kispert, Andre Drummond, Torrey Craig, Reggie Bullock,
 

mcpickl

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I tend to doubt they can upgrade 7th spot but agree the goal is a versatile guy who can deepen rotation. Best realistic guy I’ve heard—using Grant exception so it’s adding to depth—-is Jon Konchar.
The guy I have my eye on, provided his team continues to stink, is Saddiq Bey.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I was surprised to see the brown + pritch / hauser lineup after reading numbers on how well pritch / hauser pair with Tatum, and white with brown. I suspect it just means joe is still testing out lineups...
It means that super small sample sizes of trio's carry little predictive value I'm guessing.
 

radsoxfan

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I think the larger benefit is being able to let Milwaukee and Philly slug it out in the second round while hopefully beating up on a lesser opponent (NYK, Cavs, Magic) and being better rested in the ECF. But seems early in the year to be too worried about playoff matchups.
I agree, would be nice to let Phi/Mil play first.

You left out Mia though and I’m still unfortunately a bit scared of them.
 

lovegtm

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I agree, would be nice to let Phi/Mil play first.

You left out Mia though and I’m still unfortunately a bit scared of them.
We thought it was so great last year that Miami took Milwaukee out, and also that we had home court.

Especially with Miami in the mix, I don't think there's any particularly great path. The Celtics need to focus on themselves. If that gets homecourt and nice seeding, great. If health gets in the way, just play whomever is in front of you, and things will go well.
 

Devizier

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They can get to Caruso money easy with Pritchard, Kornet, Brissett. But CHI will have better offers than a late first and those salaries/players.
Feels like Caruso will be a Sixer. They have minutes, the fit, and contracts. Plus some extra picks from the Clippers although not a ton.
 

benhogan

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Mark this LAKER game down as a turning point in the Celtics approach to end-of-game halfcourt offense.

White, KP, and Tatum re-enter the game at 7:58 with the Finishing 5.

From 7:35 to the finish, White primarily initiated the halfcourt offense from the TOP with KP screening. The JAYs were fine cutting & finishing at the rim. Over the next 6:30 minutes, the Celtics efficiently scored 19pts against a good, dug in defense on the road.

With 2:15 left Tatum initiated which led to an ISO JT Pull-Up 3, clank. The only time they didn't score in the halfcourt during that period.

The game never got within double digits, no braindead TOs, & no drama.

They can get to Caruso money easy with Pritchard, Kornet, Brissett. But CHI will have better offers than a late first and those salaries/players.

I think anyone is nuts who says no to that sort of deal though. Caruso is shooting the shit out of the ball and would become the best guard/wing defender on this team, which says a whole lot considering that is a major strength of this team right now
Yea Caruso is the get. I'd expect their ask would be two firsts along with PP + and that filler
 

the moops

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Feels like Caruso will be a Sixer. They have minutes, the fit, and contracts. Plus some extra picks from the Clippers although not a ton.
They owe a 2025 and a 2027 first, and are getting a 2026 and 2028 first. So not really extra picks, per se. But they can trade up to three picks.

PHI does want to clear the books for next offseason. Not sure if Caruso at 9.8 next year would mess that up
 

RorschachsMask

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Celtics kept running the same action in the second half yesterday, and it kept working. Holiday and Jaylen were in the corners, White/Tatum/KP would run misdirection action at the top that forced the defense out of position, and White either attacked the rim, or the Lakers ended up fouling KP or Tatum.

Every team outside of maybe the Wolves will really struggle with that set.
 
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NomarsFool

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If ABC/ESPN has Doc Rivers in their number one broadcast team, why the hell do they need Doris Burke? Doc mIght be a questionable playoff coach, but he is excellent in the booth.

ABC/Disney should just outsource their NBA presentation to TNT. Their pregame and half time shows suck. Wilson and SaS are fighting for the Captain Obvious title. I do like Perk, but am in the minority. Doris is weak as an analyst choice on their lead team. Bob Myers is bad, and Hubie unfortunately lost his fastball, curve ball, slider, and knuckleball. I do like Redick and Richard Jefferson. There are so many interesting, articulate, with it former NBA players out there, who are crushing it on the podcast scene. Since ESPN gets its ass kicked by TNT, yearly, maybe it’s time to try to develop some interesting characters as talent. JJ and RJ seems to be a good start.
The guy from Scrubs the other night was amazingly good.
 

radsoxfan

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They owe a 2025 and a 2027 first, and are getting a 2026 and 2028 first. So not really extra picks, per se. But they can trade up to three picks.

PHI does want to clear the books for next offseason. Not sure if Caruso at 9.8 next year would mess that up
Is there any reason Caruso at 9.8M wouldn’t be a positive asset that can be moved easily in the offseason if needed? Or is there some logistics issue for Phi if it comes to that?
 

TripleOT

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Appreciate the information.

Sorry to all for getting KO's salary wrong. So much for my memory.
Can Olynyk at his $12.2 million salary be signed as a buyout?

I understand with the new bargaining agreement that teams over the cap can only take on a buyout at KO’s salary and under. If Ainge does Boston a solid and buys out KO, adding a big who is shooting 55/42/89% and 7.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg and a surprising 4.5 apg in 22 minutes would be a good addition. His 67.5% TS is better than any Celtic besides Kornet.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Can Olynyk at his $12.2 million salary be signed as a buyout?

I understand with the new bargaining agreement that teams over the cap can only take on a buyout at KO’s salary and under. If Ainge does Boston a solid and buys out KO, adding a big who is shooting 55/42/89% and 7.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg and a surprising 4.5 apg in 22 minutes would be a good addition. His 67.5% TS is better than any Celtic besides Kornet.
Yes. He's just under TPE so the Cs could sign him after a buy-out.
 

TripleOT

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Yes. He's just under TPE so the Cs could sign him after a buy-out.
Hopefully Ange does not like the idea that the Lakers have the same amount of titles as the Cs, and wants the Celtics to have more of them. There’s a good chance that Utah falls out of the race for the last play in spot, and there will be little reason to hang on to KO, since they have to pay Lauri Bird big money next season, and have Collins on the books for $26.5 million and probably will want to re-up Horton Tucker too.
 

Everetts Dinosaurs

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Random thought as I was driving this morning: trading away Marcus Smart was immensely impactful in almost every way that counts. Love him though we may (and I do), I think you could point to the following as being directly enabled by the trade:
- Allowing your two best players to also be your leaders. I think sometimes we confuse being loud with being a good leader; I'm not entirely sure Marcus was great for the locker room.
- Improving spacing. Teams were generally delighted to let marcus shoot 3s. There's no longer a 'safe to leave open' option whenever the Jays are on the floor
- Enabling Jalen Brown. Jalen has taken a recent step forward in his playmaking, and recently made comments about feeling more trust that the ball would come back to him. Not that Marcus was a black hole of playmaking, but he did leave something to be desired from the PG spot.
- Freed up Derrick White for more playing time and more ball handling. Even though I think most felt that DW was better than Marcus at many points last year, Marcus' standing on the team as the longest tenured Celtic (and the loudest) meant giving him a diminished role was not feasible.

That's before you take into account the obvious: KP being a huge piece for this team, getting the draft picks back, creating the opening and assets to trade for Jrue, etc.

These thoughts have all probably been shared in some form, but it wasn't until this morning that I was hit by the enormity of that one move. One which I'm sure was immensely difficult for Brad from a basketball ops perspective and an emotional one.
 

gammoseditor

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Hopefully Ange does not like the idea that the Lakers have the same amount of titles as the Cs, and wants the Celtics to have more of them. There’s a good chance that Utah falls out of the race for the last play in spot, and there will be little reason to hang on to KO, since they have to pay Lauri Bird big money next season, and have Collins on the books for $26.5 million and probably will want to re-up Horton Tucker too.
If Ainge buys out KO I don’t think it will be a real favor to the Celtics. He will try and trade him first. If the deadline passes and he doesn’t get anything for him he will buy him out if KO wants to go to a contender because he’s an expiring contract.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If Ainge buys out KO I don’t think it will be a real favor to the Celtics. He will try and trade him first. If the deadline passes and he doesn’t get anything for him he will buy him out if KO wants to go to a contender because he’s an expiring contract.
Olynyk has value around the league on contenders. I don't know how Ainge can sell to his owner that he's acting in the best interest of the Jazz by simply buying him out with no return. This would be far different than McHale working w Ainge on a KG deal.
 

DavidTai

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Olynyk has value around the league on contenders. I don't know how Ainge can sell to his owner that he's acting in the best interest of the Jazz by simply buying him out with no return. This would be far different than McHale working w Ainge on a KG deal.
Trade Olynyk to Detroit (or one of the lottery tankers) for pieces he actually might want, and let them buy them out?

(Is there anyone in this year's lottery that's actually worth trying to tank for?)
 

benhogan

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Olynyk has value around the league on contenders. I don't know how Ainge can sell to his owner that he's acting in the best interest of the Jazz by simply buying him out with no return. This would be far different than McHale working w Ainge on a KG deal.
Danny has to exhaust all Kelly trade options long before even considering a buyout. There are plenty of playoff contenders around the league that could use him.

After the trade deadline, IF Olynyk is still in Utah, and IF they are tanking and IF Kelly wants to eat some $$$ to go ring chasing then there is a small chance. BUT that's a lot of IFs

Silver will also be watching Boston/Utah carefully. If Boston overpaid for Fontecchio or Dunn in a trade & then Kelly was miraculously bought out there would be an uproar around the league.
 

lovegtm

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Celtics kept running the same action in the second half yesterday, and it kept working. Holiday and Jaylen were in the corners, White/Tatum/KP would run misdirection action at the top that forced the defense out of position, and White either attacked the rim, or the Lakers ended up fouling KP or Tatum.

Every team outside of maybe the Wolves will really struggle with that set.
Adam Taylor on Celticsblog has been beating the drum on that action ("Chin") for a couple weeks now.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/12/26/24015105/a-successful-road-trip-10-takeaways-from-boston-celtics-los-angeles-lakers-jayson-tatum-lebron-james

My take is that it's a variation of the elite 2-man game other teams (Denver, Philly) have, that's meant to take advantage of the Celtics' scoring balance.

It's a 3-man game, with the most differently-sized players (DWhite, Tatum, KP), that forces a lot of switching and communication, but requires almost no dribbling to trigger the action (less turnover-prone against locked-in defenses).

In addition, it then can flow into PnRs with KP+JB, on what will usually be an empty side. The highlight in this clip below starts from a DWhite+KP PnR, but then that flows to KP+JB, and finishes with a very quality, close-in look for KP. Great stuff by Joe and staff:
View: https://youtu.be/RcJWr4cNl1w?si=YO10aq-J4TWRYj7X&t=26
 

benhogan

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Celtics kept running the same action in the second half yesterday, and it kept working. Holiday and Jaylen were in the corners, White/Tatum/KP would run misdirection action at the top that forced the defense out of position, and White either attacked the rim, or the Lakers ended up fouling KP or Tatum.

Every team outside of maybe the Wolves will really struggle with that set.
After watching the Wolves last night Rudy & Conley will also struggle with that perimeter action

Derrick White is a poor man's SGA, with KP playing the role of Chet
 

benhogan

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Silver will also be watching Boston/Utah carefully. If Boston overpaid for Fontecchio or Dunn in a trade & then Kelly was miraculously bought out there would be an uproar around the league.
These guys claim Marc Stein suggested that Boston overpay for Dunn to get UTAH to also buy out KO.

I figured that would be illegal, but I'm not a lawyer, so dunno...but Zarren would have this all figured out if possible

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtCCcfZoNVA
 

lovegtm

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These guys claim Marc Stein suggested that Boston overpay for Dunn to get UTAH to also buy out KO.

I figured that would be illegal, but I'm not a lawyer, so dunno...but Zarren would have this all figured out if possible

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtCCcfZoNVA
I can't imagine the league would allow that, particularly with how much work has gone into making it hard for 2nd apron teams to acquire players.
 

benhogan

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I can't imagine the league would allow that, particularly with how much work has gone into making it hard for 2nd apron teams to acquire players.
Ok, that's exactly what I thought.

With Danny's long history/association with Boston & his son still there I'd expect the League to be very sensitive to any "off-the-run deal-making" between the two franchises.

I'm a little surprised Marc Stein has suggested it.
 

Jimbodandy

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Ok, that's exactly what I thought.

With Danny's long history/association with Boston & his son still there I'd expect the League to be very sensitive to any "off-the-run deal-making" between the two franchises.

I'm a little surprised Marc Stein has suggested it.
Word. The league twitterati is already wondering how the fuck Brad added Porzingis and Holiday to a team that went to the finals and missed the finals by one game in the last two years. Anything that looks remotely shady will be scrutinized by crowdsource, and the pressure on Silver would be pretty intense.
 

Euclis20

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Basketball reference uses SRS (simple rating system) to rate teams, a calculation that takes into account point differential and strength of schedule. This will even out a bit as the schedule gets easier, but as of today the Celtics' SRS is 11.44. For context, the only team to beat that in the last 50 years (as far back as I cared to look) were the 96 Bulls (11.80). The only teams to finish at or above 10.0 were the Dynasty Warriors (2015, 2016 and 2017), the Jordan Bulls (1992, 1996 and 1997) and the 2016 Spurs (didn't expect that one, but they won 67 games and had a net rating about equal to the 73 win Warriors).

It's unbelievable that the Celtics have the best record and the 2nd best net rating despite having played by far the hardest schedule by opponent winning %.
 

TripleOT

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After watching the Wolves last night Rudy & Conley will also struggle with that perimeter action

Derrick White is a poor man's SGA, with KP playing the role of Chet
Jokic and Murray closed out playoff games last season so well with action out top that it got them a title.

KP and DWhite up top, with the Jays on the wings and Jrue roving around to set up in a corner or the dunkers spot, is a good way to close games. If the defense tries to help at all on the initial action one of the Jays is going to get the ball against a scrambling defense.

Boston was weak from the top last seasons, and neither Jay was particularly efficient from there.
 

benhogan

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Freed up Derrick White for more playing time and more ball handling. Even though I think most felt that DW was better than Marcus at many points last year, Marcus' standing on the team as the longest tenured Celtic (and the loudest) meant giving him a diminished role was not feasible.

That's before you take into account the obvious: KP being a huge piece for this team, getting the draft picks back, creating the opening and assets to trade for Jrue, etc.

These thoughts have all probably been shared in some form, but it wasn't until this morning that I was hit by the enormity of that one move. One which I'm sure was immensely difficult for Brad from a basketball ops perspective and an emotional one.
Pretty much agree across the board.

Emotionally tough but Smart's fate (along w/Brogdon's) was sealed last February when Derrick White won EC Player of the Week. His dominant 4 game spell gave Brad a glimpse into DW's Ceiling, All-Star level offense + All-NBA defense.

The C's were moving Smart to Memphis either way, that deal came together quickly & was too big of a haul. AND Joe/Brad wanted to cement Derrick White into the starting/closing lineups.

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nba/boston-celtics/nba-recognizes-derrick-white-for-recent-hot-streak/286930/
 

lars10

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Pretty much agree across the board.

Emotionally tough but Smart's fate (along w/Brogdon's) was sealed last February when Derrick White won EC Player of the Week. His dominant 4 game spell gave Brad a glimpse into DW's Ceiling, All-Star level offense + All-NBA defense.

The C's were moving Smart to Memphis either way, that deal came together quickly & was too big of a haul. AND Joe/Brad wanted to cement Derrick White into the starting/closing lineups.

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nba/boston-celtics/nba-recognizes-derrick-white-for-recent-hot-streak/286930/
I think the playoffs also showed them something.. especially end of games. Smart was often too careless/chaotic and White was the opposite.. it was a noticeable difference.. beyond that White also pushed the ball whereas Smart would often start the offense later into the clock. Smart didn’t defer to Tatum and Brown as much either.. White, to my eye, meshes with them a lot better. He also plays solid team defense where Smart l in Ed to freelance quite a bit.

The additions of Jrue and KP, though, also seem to be very obviously helpful for end of games.. so who knows how much of the impact is just White vs Smart.

Just stay healthy.
 

mcpickl

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Jokic and Murray closed out playoff games last season so well with action out top that it got them a title.

KP and DWhite up top, with the Jays on the wings and Jrue roving around to set up in a corner or the dunkers spot, is a good way to close games. If the defense tries to help at all on the initial action one of the Jays is going to get the ball against a scrambling defense.

Boston was weak from the top last seasons, and neither Jay was particularly efficient from there.
I can't imagine a scenario where this happens.

Tatum is going to start with the ball closing games. It's just how the NBA works, your star is going to have the ball. He's not going to be option #2 or #3 in crunch time.

Looking back to the last two seasons, I made the same argument even though I knew it would never happen. Start with Smart/Rob pick and rolls up top with Tatum/Brown/White as your shooters spreading the floor. You'd end up with a lot of Rob dunking a smaller guy into the basket, or Smart drawing a help defender when he got a step to hit one of the shooters. Instead, it was Smart hand the ball off to Tatum, screen his guy to give Tatum a size advantage, everyone watch Tatum dribble back and forth and either shoot a sidestep three or hot potato the ball to someone with the shot clock expiring.

If players were truly ego-free, and I don't blame them for not being so, it makes a ton of sense to start Tatum off the ball. I'd just be stunned if it happened when the games matter.
 

lars10

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I can't imagine a scenario where this happens.

Tatum is going to start with the ball closing games. It's just how the NBA works, your star is going to have the ball. He's not going to be option #2 or #3 in crunch time.

Looking back to the last two seasons, I made the same argument even though I knew it would never happen. Start with Smart/Rob pick and rolls up top with Tatum/Brown/White as your shooters spreading the floor. You'd end up with a lot of Rob dunking a smaller guy into the basket, or Smart drawing a help defender when he got a step to hit one of the shooters. Instead, it was Smart hand the ball off to Tatum, screen his guy to give Tatum a size advantage, everyone watch Tatum dribble back and forth and either shoot a sidestep three or hot potato the ball to someone with the shot clock expiring.

If players were truly ego-free, and I don't blame them for not being so, it makes a ton of sense to start Tatum off the ball. I'd just be stunned if it happened when the games matter.
Is there anywhere to see numbers of plays initiated by various players? And what amount of time denotes crunch time? Last six minutes of the fourth?
 

mcpickl

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Is there anywhere to see numbers of plays initiated by various players? And what amount of time denotes crunch time? Last six minutes of the fourth?
For me, I'm talking about where it's the last handful of possessions in a close game. NBA star time.
 

benhogan

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Is there anywhere to see numbers of plays initiated by various players? And what amount of time denotes crunch time? Last six minutes of the fourth?
We witnessed, in the Lakers game, an experiment with the crunch-time approach/process.

Karalis discussed Celtic crunch-time production on his podcast yesterday. The Celtics rank last in PACE & 15th in production, during crunch time. Which is a 180-degree turn from how they play for the first 3.5 Quarters.

It doesn't take much imagination to picture Tatum or Brown slowly walking the ball up, just passing the half-court at the 17-second mark, bouncing the ball down to 10 seconds before getting into a set.

I expect we'll see a lot more White initiating with KP/JT playing a 3-man game at the top with Jrue & JB in the Corners cutting to the rim. I also expect Tatum/Brown's efficiency to skyrocket with that approach since they will be getting the ball going downhill against lesser matchups.

Derrick White is a STAR...at least KP, Jrue & now JJ Redick have publicly bought in.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqxjetFJFn0
 

NomarsFool

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Dec 21, 2001
8,325
IF and once KO was bought out, there is no way that anyone could require him to sign with Boston.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
31,039
IF and once KO was bought out, there is no way that anyone could require him to sign with Boston.
Plus if there was some sort of wink/nod where the Cs send an extra draft pick for Dunn (although I think Dunn would be pretty coveted if he hit the market) and KO agreed to go to BOS so Danny bought him out, and the league found out about it, both franchises would be hammered. I'd imagine that both teams would lose at least 1 first round draft pick. Both Danny and Brad covet their draft picks too much to chance that.

Dumb suggestion IMO.