2022-2023 General Celtics thread

benhogan

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Karalis noted on Twitter that Tatum is now a below league average three-point shooter two years in a row. He argued, not that he's a bad three point shooter, but that he needs to get back to being more selective. This team's going to continue to be in trouble with him and Smart clanging threes.
Karalis is correct.

Tatum is 40% from catch & shoot 3s. Unfortunately, the ISO off the dribble 3 is his go-to shot in late/tight where its inefficiency gets even more exposed. I thought the addition of Brogdon and White's exceptional play this season would help lessen the JAYs isolation game at the top or Smart launching the third-most 3s this season but I was wrong.

+1 on what @Fishy1 says above
 

kfoss99

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I thought the addition of Brogdon and White's exceptional play this season would help
I was texting a friend during the Houston game how infuriating it is that Brown and Tatum bring the ball up the court, instead of Brogdon and White. We have real point guards and aren't maximizing them at the position.

Also, we need to stop walking the dog at so many points in the game. They did it up 6 with 5 minutes to play, yesterday, for example.

It seemed last year's season turned around when the Celtics got rid of Schroeder and that foolishness. It just stagnates the office and gets the team out of rhythm.
 

benhogan

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I was texting a friend during the Houston game how infuriating it is that Brown and Tatum bring the ball up the court, instead of Brogdon and White. We have real point guards and aren't maximizing them at the position.

Also, we need to stop walking the dog at so many points in the game. They did it up 6 with 5 minutes to play, yesterday, for example.

It seemed last year's season turned around when the Celtics got rid of Schroeder and that foolishness. It just stagnates the office and gets the team out of rhythm.
White pushes the pace more than any other Celtic and it's part of the reason the TEAM is so effective when he is on the floor.
The talent is there, and there is still time left to opt for more efficient offense/playmaking. Coach Joe will need to make that call.

When Tatum goes supernova and scores 40+ points (10x - 8-2 record) he has been 53/109 (48.6%) from 3. In his other 55 games, he is 160/504 (31.7%) from 3. OBVIOUSLY shooting well will mean more pointz, but I'm hoping Tatum/Hanlan work on refining his 3pt stroke this summer (although we saw Brad Beal crater from 3 after the age of 25).

Three-point shooting efficiency is the key to unlocking MVP Tatum in my opinion.
 

NomarsFool

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What is difficult for me to assess is, how much are Tatum's 3PA necessary as a benefit to the other parts of his game? To put it another way, would one live with below average 3P% if doing so made sure that his drives to the basket were effective? Similar question for JB. However, as a couterpoint, I assume that all 3PA are not created equal in that regard. I'm particularly not thrilled wtih pull up 3s, or the iso-dribble, side step/step back 3s.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Karalis is correct.

Tatum is 40% from catch & shoot 3s. Unfortunately, the ISO off the dribble 3 is his go-to shot in late/tight where its inefficiency gets even more exposed. I thought the addition of Brogdon and White's exceptional play this season would help lessen the JAYs isolation game at the top or Smart launching the third-most 3s this season but I was wrong.

+1 on what @Fishy1 says above
The problem with these pct without using context here is that the majority of his ISO 3’s are after the initial set breaks down and Tatum is in ISO against the shot clock. So simply stating that Tatum needs to reduce ISO 3’s while taking more catch and shoot 3’s isn’t something that can be achieved during actual game flow.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I was texting a friend during the Houston game how infuriating it is that Brown and Tatum bring the ball up the court, instead of Brogdon and White. We have real point guards and aren't maximizing them at the position.

Also, we need to stop walking the dog at so many points in the game. They did it up 6 with 5 minutes to play, yesterday, for example.

It seemed last year's season turned around when the Celtics got rid of Schroeder and that foolishness. It just stagnates the office and gets the team out of rhythm.
The benefit of walking the dog is that it allows for an extended offense set. The time of game this occurs isn’t relevant to the individual percentage. With a 24-sec shot clock in play you should look to take advantage of the defense allowing you to walk the dog as much as possible off made baskets against an already set defense.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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The problem with these pct without using context here is that the majority of his ISO 3’s are after the initial set breaks down and Tatum is in ISO against the shot clock. So simply stating that Tatum needs to reduce ISO 3’s while taking more catch and shoot 3’s isn’t something that can be achieved during actual game flow.
Edit; wrong numbers.
 
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jmcc5400

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Tatum took seven threes last night, all off the dribble. On five of the seven, there was at least 10 seconds left on the shot clock.
And the iso step-back late in the clock against Gobert was after a protracted period of dribbling. An extremely exasperating possession.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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I noted this in the game thread, but it's not just Tatum and Smart. Brown has been electric the last couple of games but his long-distance shooting has been below-average all year. The three of them are leading the team to 22 three pointers a game and are putting together about a 34% average. The next four guys -- Horford, White, Williams and Brogdon -- are averaging just 17.6 shot per game. Luckily they're lighting it up, but yeah... on the whole... not great. They've still got a top five offense -- don't get me wrong. But the outside shooting of those three is one of the few things keeping them from being the top offense in the NBA.
View attachment 62270
One of my favorite TimeLord facts is that he has yet to make a three-point shot in his 202 games.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Wow can you completely miss the point any further?
If Tatum is taking most of his pull up threes late in the clock that’s pretty easy to demonstrate. You’re more than welcome to provide evidence that that’s what’s causing the difference. He’s taking a ton of pull up threes early in the shot clock and he doesn’t hit those at a particularly high rate.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The problem with these pct without using context here is that the majority of his ISO 3’s are after the initial set breaks down and Tatum is in ISO against the shot clock. So simply stating that Tatum needs to reduce ISO 3’s while taking more catch and shoot 3’s isn’t something that can be achieved during actual game flow.
I think Tatum is a lot to blame when he ends up with the grenade late in the clock. Last night, him and Smart spent like 3 minutes down the stretch running a pick and roll with themselves. Marcus ended up finishing 2 at the hole, thankfully, but those last 5 minutes of the game were brutal watching that motion. Tatum regularly dribbles around, and then has to force the late shot because he's holding the grenade.

Conversely, Jaylen seems to get passed the grenade at the end of quarters/shot clocks and is forced to shoot them. Does anyone keep stats on when guys shoot/shot clock/quarter?
 

RorschachsMask

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So I’d love Tatum to hit more pull-up threes, and funny enough he was having his best stretch of the season on them coming into these last two games, was at 37% over his previous 10 games.

But I don’t care about him taking 3 a game as opposed to 5, because the threat of him pulling up is part of the reason he’s able to get to the rim so easily. It doesn’t matter if he shoots 30% or 36% on them, defenses are so aggressive with him because of it. The creator of LEBRON has said from everything he’s looked at, nothing warps a defense more than the threat of a pull-up three. This is from about a month ago, but it gives an idea of what Tatum does to defenses.

View: https://twitter.com/knarsu3/status/1628539481824415746?s=20
 

Auger34

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The problem with these pct without using context here is that the majority of his ISO 3’s are after the initial set breaks down and Tatum is in ISO against the shot clock. So simply stating that Tatum needs to reduce ISO 3’s while taking more catch and shoot 3’s isn’t something that can be achieved during actual game flow.
FWIW the numbers from the PBP data that Rorschach posted don’t back this up and neither do my eyes.

Tatum takes plenty of iso 3’s early in the shot clock or drains the clock as a way to take an ISO 3 (as opposed to being given the ball late in the shot clock and being forced to shoot which is what you seem to be suggesting)
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think Tatum is a lot to blame when he ends up with the grenade late in the clock. Last night, him and Smart spent like 3 minutes down the stretch running a pick and roll with themselves. Marcus ended up finishing 2 at the hole, thankfully, but those last 5 minutes of the game were brutal watching that motion. Tatum regularly dribbles around, and then has to force the late shot because he's holding the grenade.

Conversely, Jaylen seems to get passed the grenade at the end of quarters/shot clocks and is forced to shoot them. Does anyone keep stats on when guys shoot/shot clock/quarter?
Oh for sure I don’t disagree with that but draining the clock on his own is independent from his 3-pt shooting however. These are separate entities.

I’m sure those numbers exist however they may not be public. When I charted for 82games eons ago we tracked similar stuff. I’m sure teams either do it themselves or pay an independent group for this data.
 

Auger34

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I think Tatum is a lot to blame when he ends up with the grenade late in the clock. Last night, him and Smart spent like 3 minutes down the stretch running a pick and roll with themselves. Marcus ended up finishing 2 at the hole, thankfully, but those last 5 minutes of the game were brutal watching that motion. Tatum regularly dribbles around, and then has to force the late shot because he's holding the grenade.

Conversely, Jaylen seems to get passed the grenade at the end of quarters/shot clocks and is forced to shoot them. Does anyone keep stats on when guys shoot/shot clock/quarter?
This is what my eyes see as well. It’s funny because last year when the Celtics went en fuego, a major change I noticed was Tatum was much more decisive. He’s at his best when he’s doing something with conviction as opposed to screwing around for 10-15 seconds then launching. Unfortunately, the screwing around/ISO nonsense has seemingly come back into play recently and it needs to stop
 

RorschachsMask

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Conversely, Jaylen seems to get passed the grenade at the end of quarters/shot clocks and is forced to shoot them. Does anyone keep stats on when guys shoot/shot clock/quarter?
Tatum takes 1.8 shots a game with 4 seconds or left on the shot clock, Jaylen takes 1.1.

Jaylen takes 8.5 shots a game on 3-7+ dribbles, Tatum takes 8.6.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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FWIW the numbers from the PBP data that Rorschach posted don’t back this up and neither do my eyes.

Tatum takes plenty of iso 3’s early in the shot clock or drains the clock as a way to take an ISO 3 (as opposed to being given the ball late in the shot clock and being forced to shoot which is what you seem to be suggesting)
The only point I’m making is that Tatum’s contested 3’s against the clock, whether it is due to poor decision making prior to the clock running down or the team getting the ball into the hands of its best shot creator for a desperation attempt, is going to reduce his overall ISO-3 FG%. I don’t know what this exact pct is but I’m certain it is somewhat significant.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Tatum takes 1.8 shots a game with 4 seconds or left on the shot clock, Jaylen takes 1.1.

Jaylen takes 8.5 shots a game on 3-7+ dribbles, Tatum takes 8.6.
This makes sense, but all dribbles aren't created equally. Tatum is taking 43.9% of his shots from 3, whereas Brown is taking 35.7. Brown's dribbles for the most part are him trying to get to the hoop, or get to his mid range. He's moving with the ball. Tatum is taking those dribbles and hoisting 3's.

Tbb is right. Tatum (and Brown for that matter) seem to both be at their best when they catch and attack. The stagnant PnR stuff where 3 other guys are standing in the corners is their worst offensive flow. I know why they do it very late in games, but it seems to have crept in throughout games more as the season goes on.
 

RorschachsMask

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This makes sense, but all dribbles aren't created equally. Tatum is taking 43.9% of his shots from 3, whereas Brown is taking 35.7. Brown's dribbles for the most part are him trying to get to the hoop, or get to his mid range. He's moving with the ball. Tatum is taking those dribbles and hoisting 3's.
Tatum definitely takes more threes, but he also gets to the line three more times a game, which is obviously a huge difference. Tatum drives 11.4 times a game, Jaylen 11.3. Jaylen takes 24.6% of his shots within three feet, Tatum 23.4%.

Jaylen just takes a fair amount more mid rangers than Tatum, whose almost completely cut them out of his game as the season has gone on. Since February 1st, they both have a 58% TS, which has dragged their efficiency for the season down some. Jaylen is now at 58.5% for the season, and Tatum is down to 60% flat.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Tatum definitely takes more threes, but he also gets to the line three more times a game, which is obviously a huge difference. Tatum drives 11.4 times a game, Jaylen 11.3. Jaylen takes 24.6% of his shots within three feet, Tatum 23.4%.

Jaylen just takes a fair amount more mid rangers than Tatum, whose almost completely cut them out of his game as the season has gone on. Since February 1st, they both have a 58% TS, which has dragged their efficiency for the season down some. Jaylen is now at 58.5% for the season, and Tatum is down to 60% flat.
Right, but since February 1st (which is roughly when the swoon started), let's look at the numbers a bit more, seeing as how I'm sure everyone here would be super excited to get back to the offense we were running before 2/1

Since 2/1, Tatum is taking 9.7 3's per game (on only 20.5fga), more than his season average of 9.4 3's per game, and roughly 47.3% of his shots. He's shooting 33.9% from 3 over that period to drop him to 34.7% on the season. He's also only averaging 7.2fta/game.

Since 2/1, Brown is taking 6.8 3's per game (on 20.1fga), so he's shooting less than his season average of 7.3, and its roughly 29.5% of his shots. He's shooting 37.5% from 3 over that period bringing him up to 33.8% on the season. He's averaging 5.3fta/game.

Since the offense took a step back, Tatum is shooting more 3's, shooting them worse, getting to the line less and going to the hoop less.

Jaylen is shooting less from 3, making more of them, and getting to the line more.

The offense simply works better when Tatum is going to the hoop and making plays, as opposed to the stagnant PnR, or dribbling and taking a step back 3. That's what they need to go back to....
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Thanks Rorschach for sharing the dashboard. I think this is interesting:

touch < 2 secs: 39.9%
touch 2-6 secs: 30.7%
touch 6+ secs: 28.9%

For the season, he’s taking catch and shoots (touch <2 secs) at equal volume as the other two categories combined (21.4% vs 11.9 and 10.7).

Post-ASB, the distribution is similar, but he’s ISOing more behind the line: 21.5% of his shots are threes <2 seconds, 9.3% with 2-6 seconds and 16.4% with 6+. Here’s the kicker: he’s making ISO 3’s at the same rates (30% and 31%), but his catch and shoot has plummeted to 28%
 

benhogan

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The problem with these pct without using context here is that the majority of his ISO 3’s are after the initial set breaks down and Tatum is in ISO against the shot clock. So simply stating that Tatum needs to reduce ISO 3’s while taking more catch and shoot 3’s isn’t something that can be achieved during actual game flow.
Most of his late shot clock ISO3s are his doing, anyone that has watched him play the last few seasons can see that. 2 or 3 less ISO3s is easily achievable in the flow of a regular season game until he regains his rhythm
 

HomeRunBaker

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Most of his late shot clock ISO3s are his doing, anyone that has watched him play the last few seasons can see that. 2 or 3 less ISO3s is easily achievable in the flow of a regular season game until he regains his rhythm
Whether they are his doing or not, which I recognize, it is a forced shot against the clock which is included in the overall ISO-3 number. I would guess most star wings have similar pct between catch and shoots compared to ISO-3’s aa their ISO-3 number is dragged down by these lower pct shots that these guys take more than others on the team.

I’d prefer looking at the comparative spreads on these shots between Tatum, Doncic, Booker, Mitchell, etc for the full season. Using shooting data since the ATG is pretty meaningless due to the sample size.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Frequency in parentheses

Doncic:
<2 secs (5.6%): 38%
2-6 secs (10.7%): 28%
6+ secs (19.6%): 38%
Spread between <2 and 6+: 0%

Booker:
<2 secs (13%): 43.4%
2-6 secs (10.4%): 33.3%
6+ secs (6.2%): 27.8%
Spread between <2 and 6+: -15.6%

Mitchell:
<2 secs (20.9%): 34.1%
2-6 secs (15.4%): 37.2%
6+ secs (9.8%): 47.5%
Spread between <2 and 6+: +13.4%

Tatum:
<2 secs (21.4%): 39.9%
2-6 secs (11.9%): 30.7%
6+ secs (10.7%): 28.9%
Spread between <2 and 6+: -11%
 

benhogan

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Whether they are his doing or not, which I recognize, it is a forced shot against the clock which is included in the overall ISO-3 number. I would guess most star wings have similar pct between catch and shoots compared to ISO-3’s aa their ISO-3 number is dragged down by these lower pct shots that these guys take more than others on the team.

I’d prefer looking at the comparative spreads on these shots between Tatum, Doncic, Booker, Mitchell, etc for the full season. Using shooting data since the ATG is pretty meaningless due to the sample size.
That's fine if you want to do a comp, but I could really care less what Doncic, Booker, Mitchell are doing. Tatum is surrounded by Brogdon, Horford, Grant, White, Hauser who are all very capable 3pt shooters along with a +++ scorer in Brown. The dribble ISO crap at the top needs to lessen. This isn't Kobe with a bunch of fuckwits.

There is a reason Brad went out and traded for Brogdon, White, Muscala + signed Gallinari/Hauser over the last year. Its to take some of the offensive load/shooting off the JAYs back.
 

RorschachsMask

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Since February 1st, Tatum is at 34% on pull-up threes, the big difference is he’s only at 32.8% on C&S threes in that time.

These last two games have dragged the pull-up numbers down a bit, but it had been looking much better the previous few weeks. I don’t really want him to change how he’s playing because of ebbs and flows, especially when I think at least a small part of it is he’s trying to preserve his body some for a long playoff run.

If he was being a ball stopper, that’d be one thing, but he’s averaging 10.4 potential assists a game since 2/1. He almost always makes the right read/pass, him forcing an extra iso three a game doesn’t really matter IMO. Even the last 6 weeks, the offense is elite when he’s in, and atrocious when he sits. Defense has been this teams problem, from Tatum to Smart to Jaylen, pretty much everyone has been meh on that end for awhile now.
 
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MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Awesome discussion. Lots of great things to think about in the stats.

Obviously, some things are hard to quantify. I agree with the sentiment that the offense works best when Tatum and Brown are moving on the catch. Brogdon/White/Smart bring the ball up and either call for a screen or test the D with a drive. If Tatum or Brown screen they either pop to get a favorable match-up on a drive or open up a drive for the guard with their gravity.

Or they run pindowns to get Tatum/Brown coming at the guard.

But Tatum/Brown have to be decisive on the catch in either scenario. If the defense mucks it up, then it's iso or maybe enough time for someone to come set a second screen.

Best is when they drive off the catch and either finish at the rim or kick for the three. Then it's Brogdon/Hauser/White/Grant knocking down shots or a lob to TimeLord if his man comes to help on the drive.

When Tatum/Brown bring the ball up, it's pull up three, iso, or PnR - none of which really get them going to the basket with a head of steam that gets the defense in rotation.

Brown talked about it being a good thing he got popped in the face in the interview after the game last night. Said it got him aggressive as soon as he had the ball. We've seen similar stuff happen with Tatum, where something flips a switch for him. Lately, he just doesn't seem to get that going so he's "playing with force," as Scal likes to say. I thought it might happen after the cheap shot that seems to have hurt him last night, but maybe he's feeling it in a couple of places now.
 

saintnick912

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Hmm I'm in Utah and was thinking about trying to go tonight. Given it's a back to back and a possible "schedule loss", when do they announce who's sitting.
 

Koufax

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Horford will sit for sure. Their bench players are so good (and / or entertaining) you should definitely go.
 

RorschachsMask

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It’s crazy how much Tatum and White stick out when you look at the OFF court net ratings for this team. Massive sample as this point too, years in Tatum’s case.

Tatum: -0.1
White: +0.1
Rob: +4.7
Al: +4.9
Smart: +6.5
Brogdon: +7.4
Jaylen: +7.4
Grant: +7.4

That White trade was just so fucking brilliant.
 

benhogan

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It’s crazy how much Tatum and White stick out when you look at the OFF court net ratings for this team. Massive sample as this point too, years in Tatum’s case.

Tatum: -0.1
White: +0.1
Rob: +4.7
Al: +4.9
Smart: +6.5
Brogdon: +7.4
Jaylen: +7.4
Grant: +7.4

That White trade was just so fucking brilliant.
+1

Just to continue to beat that drum, take a gander at White's +/- & On-Off combo during the years he played with Dajounte Murray in San Antonio.

White was 1/3 of the acquisition cost (with more years of control)

White is massively underappreciated by the NBA national media. That deal was met with a yawn.
I remember reading SAS fan boards, on the day of the trade, and their fans were 100% gutted. They kept on saying Boston is going to love this guy.

https://dknation.draftkings.com/nba/2022/2/10/22927645/derrick-white-trade-grades-spurs-celtics-details-picks-josh-richardson-romeo-langford

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/whitede01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/murrade01.html
 

Fishy1

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Hard to tell from watching what was supposed to happen, but Tatum never really left the half court circle. There's always options on every play, and it sounds to me that's what Tatum was saying.
Seemed to me like Grant saw an opening for a drive but should've maybe ended that play with a soft floater. Once he was in the paint he was bound to be swallowed up. I don't blame him for driving there, he seemed to have an opening, he just sometimes thinks he's 6'10, and like, he's not.

Brutal ending from what I saw on the highlights, including Brogdon losing Markannen on a three and Kornet playing ole on the drive to give up an easy bucket. I hate to be a parrot but ultimately they're on a B2B with Horford, Smart, and TL out, in the dog days of the season. Every team is so turned up to face the Celtics right now, I can only imagine how fatiguing that must be. I don't mean that they're all on the brink of injury bodily, but mentally fatiguing.

What I seem to see is more like other teams have another gear that the Celtics have trouble breaking out for every game (and understandably!). It's just impossible to get your adrenaline up for every game like it's a playoff game, but a team like the Jazz, who are fighting and scrambling for a playoff spot, are absolutely going to show out like it's a playoff game.

A win might've been nice for morale but I'm happy they played competitively. Could have gone either way down the wire.
 
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bankshot1

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Hard to tell from watching what was supposed to happen, but Tatum never really left the half court circle. There's always options on every play, and it sounds to me that's what Tatum was saying.
That was my take on Tatum too. He seemed like a decoy. I thought the play was going to be GW drives and as the D collapses on him in the paint, he kicks to I think it was an open Hauser to his right for an uncontested two.

Spilled paint.
 

Auger34

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I think that the primary option on game ending plays should be dictated by how well JT and JB are playing that game. It seems like MAzzulla just automatically goes to the Tatum running start play every time and there needs to be more variety and adjustments than that (especially with Tatum in such a slump)

EDIT: It sucks that they lost and I think there are a lot of concerns (all of them completely fair) about Mazzulla’s ability to make any sort of adjustments in game. However, the biggest thing to me last night was Grant snapping out of his funk. As annoying as he is, he’s a very important piece to this team and the Celtics need good Grant to have a shot at the championship
 

jmcc5400

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I think that the primary option on game ending plays should be dictated by how well JT and JB are playing that game. It seems like MAzzulla just automatically goes to the Tatum running start play every time and there needs to be more variety and adjustments than that (especially with Tatum in such a slump)

EDIT: It sucks that they lost and I think there are a lot of concerns (all of them completely fair) about Mazzulla’s ability to make any sort of adjustments in game. However, the biggest thing to me last night was Grant snapping out of his funk. As annoying as he is, he’s a very important piece to this team and the Celtics need good Grant to have a shot at the championship
Grant playing well was encouraging and they probably win if he is given the continuation and-1 on that late call (as he should have been). They lost a road back-to-back without Rob, Al and Marcus to a team that is 21-13 at home. It sucks, but hard to get overly exercised about it.

At least it dumped the Lakers into 11th.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Just looking at the year-over-year stats and it's pretty remarkable that the Cs have made 20% more threes than this point last year. That's a huge number for a team that already made a lot of threes, going from 8th in the league to 2nd.

And they've taken 14% more, while opponents are actually taking 4% fewer.

That seems like a bigger change in offensive philosophy than I realized.
 

Humphrey

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Grant playing well was encouraging and they probably win if he is given the continuation and-1 on that late call (as he should have been). They lost a road back-to-back without Rob, Al and Marcus to a team that is 21-13 at home. It sucks, but hard to get overly exercised about it.

At least it dumped the Lakers into 11th.
I just wish they could figure out the defensive rebounding problem. I'm not sure it's just who wasn't playing.