2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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I'm not sure that one solid year will significantly change what he might get, given how the market is trending. 3/$30m and buy out this year.
This is what I was thinking, maybe a 2/24 extension. Lance Lynn bumped him from the rotation in August and signed for 3/30 this winter, Gray is really rolling the dice if he thinks he will get more than that next winter.
 

EvilEmpire

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I hope you guys are right, but yeah, I'm skeptical. Especially since I think the Yankees will still trade him to the Reds even without an extension, just for less.

Now maybe Sonny really wants to go to the Reds and won't want to take the chance that Cashman will send him someplace else, but if Cincy is still the most likely destination, I really don't expect him to do the Yankees any favors.
 

Plympton91

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So, now we can assume the Yankees aren’t subsidizing 2019, which would in some sense justify giving up prospect value for their mop up man. Instead, The Reds want to guarantee him even more than they have to, in addition to getting fleeced by Cash-man already. I’m flabbergasted.
 

crow216

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Y'all better hope the Reds don't read this thread about how bad SGRAY is
Sonny Gray is bad for NY, but he's not a bad pitcher. Young with a good attitude and great stuff. He's had success before.

I think the Yankees coaching staff last year was overwhelmed with trying to fix major issues of their top pitchers. I have no proof of it and I'm sure they could walk and chew gum at the same time but between Severino, Gray, Green, Chapman, and even Britton, they had a lot of pitchers to work on. Getting rid of Gray hopefully allows them to focus better on everyone else.
 

crow216

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The saga continues

Jan. 21: Heyman tweets that there’s some optimism from the Reds that they’ll be able to work out an extension before today’s window closes. However, if the extension doesn’t materialize (and, thus, the currently proposed trade does not go through), the Yankees may “look elsewhere” for a trade partner for Gray.
 

jon abbey

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Glad to be wrong!
It's a brutal market for players right now, hard to bet on yourself when you haven't been really good in a few years and you could get hurt at any time. That being said, he had some leverage on CIN who seemed to really want him, so I bet he ended up doing ok.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, he did really well for himself, wow:

"Sonny Gray does indeed have an extension with the Reds, a source tells ESPN. @Ken_Rosenthal had the details: Three years, $30.5M on top of his $7.5M salary this year, with a $12M club option for 2023. Four guaranteed seasons, five years of control max at $50 million."
 

jon abbey

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It looks like the final deal is Gray and LHP Reiver Sanmartin to CIN for Long and the #36 pick (and accompanying $2M boost in allowed draft budget.)

Sanmartin is a low level pitcher NY got from TEX for Ronald Herrera last winter, he is promising but NY has so many promising pitching prospects.
 

EvilEmpire

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What a great deal for Gray. I'm shocked at how good it is. I understand Cincy knows him well and all, but damn, they must be really confident they can get him back on the right track.

Hope it works out. Gray seems like a good guy.
 

jon abbey

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Long has already been traded to SEA for CF Josh Stowers, their second round pick last summer. This saves NY a 40 man spot, Ottavino takes Gray’s spot now.
 

jon abbey

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Stowers was the #54 overall pick last year, so NY adds him and this year's #36 pick, they continue to add to the low end of the system.
 

jon abbey

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John Sickels rated both Long and Stowers as B- prospects after the season, but Long is on the 40 man already and burned an option last year, Stowers doesn't need to be added for a few years still. Also NY has CF depth issues (I guess most teams do), so this helps there also.

9) Josh Stowers, OF, Grade B-: Age 21, second round pick in 2018 from University of Louisville; hit .260/.380/.4190 with 20 steals, 37 walks, 57 strikeouts in 200 at-bats in Northwest League; ideal leadoff type with speed and patience, has doubles power too; arm may limit him to left field; ETA 2021.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/11/27/18114614/seattle-mariners-top-20-prospects-for-2019
 

jon abbey

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So ... now the Machado Clock starts in earnest
I think this is right, everyone seems to think they're out on him and maybe they really do much prefer Arenado, but either way they need a 3B for this season.

NY signs David Hale to another minor league deal, I think the pitching staff is basically set at this point.
 

jon abbey

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Thankfully, he seems like a nice guy but he is a very bad announcer. I think his role had been pared way back anyway.
 

E5 Yaz

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The Yankees won't spoil Mariano's day. So, expect the Machado signing Wednesday ... Thursday at the latest
 

jon abbey

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If NY signs Machado, I wonder about spinning Andujar to SD for a package including Franmil Reyes. Reyes is another gigantic guy with elite exit velocity but a terrible defender, so he could take Andujar's place at DH without NY losing much. They were both born in 1995 and were rookies last year, Reyes is 4 months younger, and he had 16 HRs in 261 ABs last year.

Reyes, Manny Margot and Morejon would be a nice package, none of those are slated to help SD much (Reyes and Margot aren't starters currently and Morejon is a few years away) and SD are desperate for a 3B (and more importantly, they evidently think Andujar is a 3B). Reyes and Margot both have 2 options left, NY would have to clear two 40 man spots (Machado, Reyes, Margot in, Andujar out) but they could do that.

That's my idea for tonight.
 

jon abbey

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Ottavino deal is finally official, looks like they’re going to let him wear 0.

 

jon abbey

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OK, you keep doing this, so I need at least a little elaboration. You believe that Machado to NY has always been inevitable and everything we’ve read to the contrary is wrong? That might be right but I’d like to hear your opinion in more depth if you don’t mind, thanks.
 

E5 Yaz

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OK, you keep doing this, so I need at least a little elaboration. You believe that Machado to NY has always been inevitable and everything we’ve read to the contrary is wrong? That might be right but I’d like to hear your opinion in more depth if you don’t mind, thanks.
I think it's been carved in stone since he was traded to L.A. Do I have anything more than my gut sense of inevitability to base this on? No. But I don't believe for a minute that the Yankees will let a young stud infielder go elsewhere. I also think we'll eventually see a story that says he took less to sign with them because he always wanted to be a Yankee.

edit: But I will stop laughing at the hesitancy of Yankee fans to just accept this is going to happen
 

jon abbey

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Riffing off a post in the general offseason thread...

Short term, the joke is likely to be on other teams after the Yankees scoop up Harper, Machado and maybe both at rates that will appear to be bargains compared to what the expectations were a few years ago.
NY is around $213M currently for 2019. I don't personally think this would be the smartest way to proceed, but...

Trade Andujar along with Ellsbury (21/21/5 remaining on his contract) to SD for Manny Margot, SD is evidently really high on Andujar to fill their 3B spot next to Tatis and Urias at SS/2B, and they have very few financial commitments so could swallow the Ellsbury money if they wanted to (and in fact NY/SD did a smaller version of this last winter with one year of Headley's money bundled with the unharnessable talent of Bryan Mitchell for basically nothing in return). If that's not fair as is, it could be evened out with secondary players to make it work. Andujar has much more value to SD than NY (they can let him try to get better at 3B for a year or two, and if that's still not tolerable, I think he could be OK in LF), I actually think that would be smart for SD to jump on if offered as Andujar looks to have a special bat and they seem to have soured on Margot, who would be a great organizational fit for NY in AAA between Hicks (FA after 2019) and the still super young and a few years away Florial.

Sign Machado and Harper to matching 8/208 ($26M per) deals with a player optout after 2 or 3 years. Obviously I have no idea if that would be enough but given the marketplace and that we know both players would prefer to play for the Yankees if possible, it's an idea.

That would put NY around $244M, still somehow under the top tax level, and with the following team:

Torres 2B
Judge RF
Harper DH
Stanton LF
Machado 3B
Hicks CF
Sanchez C
Voit 1B
Tulo SS (Didi on the DL)

Bench: LeMahieu, Gardner, Romine.

Clint Frazier, Margot (2 options left), Bird, Wade all in AAA.

Yowza.
 

jon abbey

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But I think I'd still prefer just signing Moustakas to a 1/15 deal and then going after Arenado next winter, and trading Andujar to SD for Reyes/Margot if that is possible. Harper is a really tough roster fit with both Judge and Stanton already on board and both much better defenders than Bryce.
 

jon abbey

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Here is my new crush Reyes hitting one 477 feet off Jon Lester last August, remember he is four months younger than Andujar. This is on a 3-0 pitch, so maybe a slight asterisk, but it is the second longest HR in Wrigley since 2015 (Kris Bryant hit one 495).

https://www.mlb.com/cut4/franmil-reyes-hits-monster-homer-at-wrigley-field/c-289060814

I think it's a really good fit both ways, Reyes is more helpful for NY as a DH than he is for SD playing any position. And vice-versa with SD, who was reportedly pushing for Kluber to flip him to NY for Andujar+. I actually think it's a reasonable roll of the dice to give him at least a year at 3B if you are SD, NY can't afford the 3-4 games that would likely cost them in 2019. But if he gets up to adequate D somehow, he is a special hitter and I think he will only get better.
 

jon abbey

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Adam Ottavino posted this to Instagram, him and David Cone back in the day. I think I'm going to love this guy, he said the other day he is working on a new pitch but it might not be 'game-ready' this season.

 

jon abbey

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Arenado looking more likely to be locked up long-term by COL after their arb settled amicably, that has to increase the odds of Manny to the Bronx.
 

jon abbey

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I mean, I get that perspective, but the beat writers think basically the opposite at this point, that there is more like a .06-.09% chance of it happening.
 

moondog80

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I see Colorado saying that they think they can re-sign Arenado as a move to nudge the Yanks to sign Machado, and thus make it less likely they would bid on Arenado.
 

EvilEmpire

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I think the Phillies are willing to spend more money on Machado than the Yankees will, but no, I won't be surprised if the Yankees get him.
 

E5 Yaz

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I mean, I get that perspective, but the beat writers think basically the opposite at this point, that there is more like a .06-.09% chance of it happening.
The Yankees either have dumb beat writers, or they're so enamored of the idea of Machado in pinstripes that they're helping Cashman's slow-play without having to be asked to do so
 

jon abbey

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yanks offered machado $220M over 7 or 8 years according the mlb alert I just got
Not confirmed, but that is the rumor, although it's also not clear if that is a current offer or from a while ago.

Marcus Stroman is also with E5 on this, as he tweeted a few hours ago:

Verified account 4h4 hours ago
AL East. Power house division in the MLB. I’m hearing a team in our division is close to adding a big time gold glove infielder who plays SS/3B. I wonder who! Lol
 

E5 Yaz

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I can't wait to hear how many media types are "shocked" or "stunned" when it happens, followed by the requisite praise for Cashman's "stealth" move
 

DeadlySplitter

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I can't wait to hear how many media types are "shocked" or "stunned" when it happens, followed by the requisite praise for Cashman's "stealth" move
basically their JD move of last year, around the same time, if it goes through.