2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

crow216

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Did anyone else ever post on the YES Network boards? An even worse version of NYYF.
I did, back when that idiot jonahfalcon was the mod on a power trip. Funny that Stern last week was playing prank calls of Sal & Richard calling into Jonah's radio show. I was dying.
 

cromulence

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I did, back when that idiot jonahfalcon was the mod on a power trip. Funny that Stern last week was playing prank calls of Sal & Richard calling into Jonah's radio show. I was dying.
Did you notice when he popped up around here in late September? JA booted him pretty quick.
 

jon abbey

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I think the Sonny Gray move is going to happen very soon, maybe in the next hour or two. Andy Martino has the A's and Padres as the primary two bidders currently, I mentioned it before but I wouldn't mind getting Dustin Fowler back in exchange. He is blocked in CF in OAK by Laureano (a rookie last year) and NY could use the OF depth at AAA, maybe that is why they DFAd Locastro.
 

Plympton91

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I think the Sonny Gray move is going to happen very soon, maybe in the next hour or two. Andy Martino has the A's and Padres as the primary two bidders currently, I mentioned it before but I wouldn't mind getting Dustin Fowler back in exchange. He is blocked in CF in OAK by Laureano (a rookie last year) and NY could use the OF depth at AAA, maybe that is why they DFAd Locastro.
If the Yankees get anything more than a salary dump out of trading Sonny Gray I’m going to be absolutely batshit. I am so sick of teams bailing the Yankees out of their bad moves like Gray, while simulataneously handing them all stars like Stanton and Paxton for pennies on the dollar. They really don’t need the help.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Gray was a #2 starter in OAK, so it wouldn't be "bailing out" if the Yanks got a decent return.

Paxton has injury concerns and only 2 years of control, was that really an unfair deal on either side?

Stanton I'll give you, because of course, the Marlins.
 

bankshot1

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While I'd like to see DD add another BP arm, (I'm not in camp Kimbrel yet) and the Yankee WAR edge in the BP will give me many sleepless nights, (almost as many as Kimbrel did last year) I do take some solace that the Sox starting 5-6 (Wright) wipe out that edge at about 20-15.
 

crow216

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While I'd like to see DD add another BP arm, (I'm not in camp Kimbrel yet) and the Yankee WAR edge in the BP will give me many sleepless nights, (almost as many as Kimbrel did last year) I do take some solace that the Sox starting 5-6 (Wright) wipe out that edge at about 20-15.
****Biased opinion alert****

The Sox last year had 2 MVP Candidates and a Cy Young Candidate with one of the best closers in baseball. I believe in regression and I don't think the Sox can possibly rely on Mookie and JDM to both deliver MVP seasons again. For the Yankees, the starting rotation and nearly every important offensive player had a down year except the rookies.

Look, nobody is going to know how to project these teams properly but the Yankees don't have any player their season hangs on because there's balance across the offense and pitching. If the Sox get a down year from JD, Mookie, or Sale, I'm not sure where they make up for it. Maybe continued improvement from Beni and Devers, maybe Edro stays healthy, maybe Porcello and Price have great years, maybe the bullpen holds it together. As it stands in January, the bullpen is significantly worse than 2018 and there's regression risk for the top performers. With the Yankees, it's opposite, Judge lost two months, Stanton had a down year, Sanchez was invisible, and Torres fell off completely after his hip injury.
 

jon abbey

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If people really need to make head to head comparisons in January, please start a new thread to do so, thanks.
 

crow216

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If people really need to make head to head comparisons in January, please start a new thread to do so, thanks.
Why? Everyone knows the Yankees are better.

::Runs away::


On topic - MLB made another report about an hour ago that Sonny Gray is close to being traded. At this point, we just need this saga to end.
 

bankshot1

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****Biased opinion alert****

The Sox last year had 2 MVP Candidates and a Cy Young Candidate with one of the best closers in baseball. I believe in regression and I don't think the Sox can possibly rely on Mookie and JDM to both deliver MVP seasons again. For the Yankees, the starting rotation and nearly every important offensive player had a down year except the rookies.

Look, nobody is going to know how to project these teams properly but the Yankees don't have any player their season hangs on because there's balance across the offense and pitching. If the Sox get a down year from JD, Mookie, or Sale, I'm not sure where they make up for it. Maybe continued improvement from Beni and Devers, maybe Edro stays healthy, maybe Porcello and Price have great years, maybe the bullpen holds it together. As it stands in January, the bullpen is significantly worse than 2018 and there's regression risk for the top performers. With the Yankees, it's opposite, Judge lost two months, Stanton had a down year, Sanchez was invisible, and Torres fell off completely after his hip injury.
Crow-I was responding to the WAR argument. Using 2018 data for the respective 1-6 starters the Sox have an edge that is larger than the WAR edge the Y's have in the BP. I did not project. I used '18 WAR #s to compare to '18 WAR #s. I think the Sox starters are far better than the Yankee starters. I also think the Sox are a better defensive team and generally have better postion players than the Yankees..

YMMV

While I would like one more BP arm, I'm more than happy to go to WAR or war with the Sox '19 team against anyone.
 

jon abbey

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Some buzz going around about NY maybe trading for Arenado now, possibly contingent on him signing an extension first. He is set to make either $24M or $30M in his final year of team control this year, COL would probably be smart to get back talent for him now.
 

crow216

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Some buzz going around about NY maybe trading for Arenado now, possibly contingent on him signing an extension first. He is set to make either $24M or $30M in his final year of team control this year, COL would probably be smart to get back talent for him now.
How do these types of situations work? Are the Yankees even allowed to talk with Arenado?
 

jon abbey

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Certainly Andujar would head that package.
Just one very pricy year of Arenado in exchange, that might be enough. That would open up LF for Clint, NY would be really RH-centric but hard to care too much.

Gleyber 2B
Judge RF
Arenado 3B
Stanton DH
Hicks CF
Sanchez C
Voit 1B
Frazier LF
Tulo SS
 

crow216

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I don't see why we would trade Andujar for Arenado when you could sign Machado and keep Andujar to spin him off for something else. I get that it would be a good trade match in a bubble, but in the context of Machado being available, I don't get it.
 

DeadlySplitter

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they might really prefer Arenado to Machado? try to get Arenado to take a reasonable deal that won't be skyrocketed up in FA, like Machado right now? that seems like a very defensible position to me.

that said, I don't see any rumors on MLBTR about this. who is rumbling this possibility?
 

Brand Name

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that said, I don't see any rumors on MLBTR about this. who is rumbling this possibility?
Googles came up dry.
Hate to leave a post without much content or feedback, but I think this is Jon's origin. Been so desperate to get water from this offseason's desert:


Rather hastily, Machado seems a more logical fit with respect to roster construction specifically as he only costs money, and thus Andujar would be better used (IMO) as a trade chip for upper echelon starting pitching since I think the relative depth past 7 isn't terribly great. I mean, is Hutchinson #8 right now?

Also thought Cashman would want to pull a 2017 Dodgers and rotate the SPs around with phantom DLs to maximize health odds going into this winter. Guess he likes the depth more than me and/or isn't done yet.

But, all told, Arenado goes with Cashman's thinking this season, to exploit defense as an market inefficiency, especially with a trend to have weak contact be a more probable outcome beyond strikeouts. It kind of reminds me of a rich man's version of the 2006 Red Sox infield where you had no weak links, between Youkilis, Loretta, Seabass, Lowell.
 

RIrooter09

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Seems like another potential cost saving move. Grab the inferior player, negotiate before he hits FA to lower his price relative to Machado.
 

RIrooter09

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He is older but is he really inferior?

An argument can be made he isn’t it that a team would rather have Arrenado.
Machado has been a 6+ fWAR player three of the past 4 seasons which Arenado has never done, he has a higher career WAR, is younger as you mentioned, and doesn't have the Coors factor working against him.
 

jon abbey

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Yep, Andy Martino and also Sweeny Murti are talking about that today, thanks Jess.

Machado has been a 6+ fWAR player three of the past 4 seasons which Arenado has never done, he has a higher career WAR, is younger as you mentioned, and doesn't have the Coors factor working against him.
And likes to spike infielders for seemingly no reason. I'd think if any fan base could easily understand why a team might not want to commit hundreds of millions to Machado, it would be BOS.
 

jon abbey

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Also, Arenado isn't going to be cheaper than Machado based on those arb numbers, possibly a shorter deal but I doubt it.
 

jon abbey

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Neither of those really fill needs, NY could really use a catcher in between Sanchez and Seager but Stephenson is still a few levels away, and they need a AAA OF or a SP more than a 2B. Maybe he is trying to stick to guys he doesn't need to add to the 40 man yet?

Edit: Nope, Long is on the 40 man already, Stephenson isn't.
 

keninten

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Yep, Andy Martino and also Sweeny Murti are talking about that today, thanks Jess.



And likes to spike infielders for seemingly no reason. I'd think if any fan base could easily understand why a team might not want to commit hundreds of millions to Machado, it would be BOS.
I`ve been hoping for Machado to sign with them at high dollars and long term. I think he could disrupt a team if he does anymore spiking. It`s also scary because he is a good player.
 

jon abbey

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Wow, Fangraphs has both Stephenson and Long as 50 grade prospects, Florial and Abreu are the only two guys in NY's system currently they have 50s on (with the big caveat that the CIN player ratings are 2019 and the NYY ones are 2018 because they didn't get to them yet).
 

moondog80

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Arenado is two years older than Machado and .787 OPS on the road for his career as opposed to .984 at Coors. And maybe not much cheaper. Wouldn’t you rather just sign Machado than give up prospects for Arenado?
 

jon abbey

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Arenado is two years older than Machado and .787 OPS on the road for his career as opposed to .984 at Coors. And maybe not much cheaper. Wouldn’t you rather just sign Machado than give up prospects for Arenado?
Well, the current research seems to say that COL road hitting stats are aritificially low because they have to constantly adjust back and forth, as opposed to what we have thought for years now. Fangraphs actually ran a piece today that using their new metric, Arenado has been second only to Trout as the best player in baseball over the past six seasons, and not even behind Trout by that much.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-epistemology-of-hitting-or-what-constitutes-a-fact-about-nolan-arenado/

And if you're asking me, yeah, probably I would go with Machado, but the Yankee front office knows about a billion times more than me, and Machado has temperament issues that you'd think would only get worse if he was given a giant deal. I think his work ethic is way too maligned (the guy never misses games and plays great D at 3B), but the dirty plays are inexplicable, and I'm honestly not sure he cares that much about team success and he's definitely not a team spokesman type. These aren't even really criticisms, he is an amazing player, but you could see why some executives might not want to build around him (the Yankee front office has evidently been split on him all winter).

I'm not sure what it would take to trade for Arenado, but if it's a Goldschmidt type package and COL is happy with Andujar as the lead guy, I can see that being the smart way to go.
 

jon abbey

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As for the Coors effect, check out this Chris Iannetta splits chart, kind of amazing:

 

jon abbey

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And actually honestly what I would probably do if my endgame was Arenado would be to sign Moustakas to a big one year deal (1/15?) and then go after Arenado next winter, but I can see giving up a Goldschmidt-like package to get him into pinstripes a year early.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I think the Sonny Gray move is going to happen very soon, maybe in the next hour or two. Andy Martino has the A's and Padres as the primary two bidders currently, I mentioned it before but I wouldn't mind getting Dustin Fowler back in exchange. He is blocked in CF in OAK by Laureano (a rookie last year) and NY could use the OF depth at AAA, maybe that is why they DFAd Locastro.
 

jon abbey

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The latest from Heyman an hour ago:

“Yankees and #Reds are getting closer on a Sonny Gray trade. Teams are talking about two prospects and a draft pick going for Sonny. One of 2B prospect Shed Long and C prospect Tyler Stephenson may go. #SFGiants, Braves, Brewers are on periphery. A deal should happen this weekend.”
 

jon abbey

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NY isn't done yet but this is a good way to show how much turnover they continue to have. Sweeny Murti posted their Opening Day lineup from last year, the infield is going to be a hundred percent different (with Didi on the DL and Wade in AAA).

 

jon abbey

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Added since then:

SP: Paxton, Happ (Gray gone shortly, Montgomery on the DL)
RP: Ottavino, Britton (replacing Robertson, Warren, Shreve)
C: same
IF: Voit, Gleyber, Andujar, Tulo, LeMahieu (replacing everyone from that list, Didi is on the DL, Bird/Wade to AAA)
OF: same
 

Lose Remerswaal

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JonHeymanVerified account 18s18 seconds ago
Yankees are working hard now on a trade for Sonny Gray. Appears to be getting more serious. Teams involved have included: reds, giants, brewers, a’s, padres, braves, mariners.

Heyman: Yankees are indeed close to trading Sonny Gray. Teams are also asking about Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder.

------

I wonder if Holder is mentioned because it would mean a better return.
I think the Sonny Gray move is going to happen very soon, maybe in the next hour or two. Andy Martino has the A's and Padres as the primary two bidders currently, I mentioned it before but I wouldn't mind getting Dustin Fowler back in exchange. He is blocked in CF in OAK by Laureano (a rookie last year) and NY could use the OF depth at AAA, maybe that is why they DFAd Locastro.
Why? Everyone knows the Yankees are better.

::Runs away::


On topic - MLB made another report about an hour ago that Sonny Gray is close to being traded. At this point, we just need this saga to end.
The latest from Heyman an hour ago:

“Yankees and #Reds are getting closer on a Sonny Gray trade. Teams are talking about two prospects and a draft pick going for Sonny. One of 2B prospect Shed Long and C prospect Tyler Stephenson may go. #SFGiants, Braves, Brewers are on periphery. A deal should happen this weekend.”
Added since then:

SP: Paxton, Happ (Gray gone shortly, Montgomery on the DL)
RP: Ottavino, Britton (replacing Robertson, Warren, Shreve)
C: same
IF: Voit, Gleyber, Andujar, Tulo, LeMahieu (replacing everyone from that list, Didi is on the DL, Bird/Wade to AAA)
OF: same
We get it. I'm not sure if this is forecasting or wishcasting anymore.
 

jon abbey

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Not sure what the complaint is, this has certainly dragged on a long time but part of that is because CC’s surprise surgery put it on hold for a month (early Dec to early Jan). It will be done soon, it sounds like.
 

Plympton91

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Gray to Reds?

Fucking imbeciles running the Reds if that is even close to true or the Yankees better be paying the entire contract for 2019. Gray was so bad last year he lost a rotation spot in a rotation so thin the Yankees have already overhauled it. The Yankees getting anything back for Gray should cement Cash- man as the GM of the year again.
 

terrynever

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Sonny Gray is a serviceable big league pitcher. Have you seen his stuff? He just needs the right environment and a pitching coach who can get him off the middle of the plate. Probably not a guy you can count on in a pennant race, or a hitters’ park.