2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
The Reds have his old Vanderbilt pitching coach, they know exactly what they’re getting.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Also it's not just the Reds, a bunch of teams have been interested in Gray. The Giants and Zaidi tried to get involved yesterday, maybe he is stupid too (he's not).
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Is it finalized or still rumor stage? Not seeing it reported on the major sites.
Still rumors, these are the latest:

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman
#Reds want to hold catching prospect Tyler Stephenson out of a potential Sonny Gray deal. Now discussions center around 2B prospect Shed Long, a draft choice (sandwich pick) and a 2nd minor leaguer. There’s some optimism but no word it’s done yet.

Jonathan Mayo‏Verified account @JonathanMayo
Hearing that discussions about Sonny Gray centering around Shed Long and an #MLBDraft pick (@Reds’ tradable pick is currently No. 36). #yankees and #reds still talking.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Leaves after the 8th inning
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Not sure what the complaint is, this has certainly dragged on a long time but part of that is because CC’s surprise surgery put it on hold for a month (early Dec to early Jan). It will be done soon, it sounds like.
Ottavino signed with the Yanks without 1% of the hoopla we see about Sonny Gray.

It's the bullet you don't see that kills you.
 

ThePrideofShiner

spooky action from a distance
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
6,428
Idaho
I'd guess most people don't know that much about Ottavino to really discuss him. Whereas Gray was a big move a year and a half ago and has been pretty terrible and now the Yankees might unload him for something of value. That seems worth much more discussion to me.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Also that’s not even true, people have been talking about Ottavino potentially to NY all offseason, and even last season.

The Gray situation is unusual for a few reasons, but Cashman is the one who has made it a topic from the start of the offseason and who has yet to resolve it. I’d say blame him but he’s had other higher priority deals to focus on plus as I said, he had to hold off on Gray negotiations until CC’s unexpected heart surgery resolved itself.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
I'd guess most people don't know that much about Ottavino to really discuss him.
He's pretty fascinating, a top ten reliever in all of MLB last year, and a lot of similarities to Betances, they even both played for the same summer league team in NYC (Betances is a few years younger, so I don't think they actually overlapped).

https://www.sny.tv/yankees/news/from-youth-service-to-yankees-adam-ottavino-and-dellin-betances-teammates-once-again/302889570?tcid=tw_article_302889570

https://nypost.com/2019/01/19/two-of-yankees-bullpen-studs-came-up-through-new-york-city/
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Presented with huge apologies to the poor beleaguered posters who evidently are forced to click on this thread every time it's bumped, another incremental update from Heyman:

Verified account 38s39 seconds ago
Yankees, Reds are finalizing the Sonny Gray trade. infield prospect Shed Long and a draft pick are expected to go to NY, and possibly a 3rd lesser piece. Long is an excellent hitter, fair defender. Just need to cross t’s, dot i’s (ie medicals, 40-man considerations, etc.)
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Not really sure what the plan is with Long, maybe they will spin him somewhere else. He seems like a potentially OK player but he is already on the 40 man, and that doesn't seem like the ideal use of that spot for NY since he's not ready yet and Wade and Estrada are ahead of him in development.

The pick is the exciting thing here, the #36 overall pick in the upcoming draft along with about $2M extra in the draft pool, so NY will have more flexibility there than before. Basically a second first round pick, NY's own pick is #30.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Also Heyman chimes in on the other thing we were talking about yesterday:

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman
Just to clear up something that’s getting a lot of play in NY today: Yankees and Rockies are not talking about an Arenado trade, and Yankees wouldn’t send Miguel Andujar in package for Arenado. That said, have heard NYY loves Arenado, a free agent after ‘19 (what’s not to love?)
 

curly2

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2003
3,956
Cashman is really, really good at trades.

As for the Reds, what in God’s name are they doing? With the Dodgers trade and this one, they’re giving up good prospects — especially Jeter Downs, who went to the Dodgers — for players who could boost them from a 67-win team to maybe a 78-win team, then all leave in the offseason.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Cashman is really, really good at trades.

As for the Reds, what in God’s name are they doing? With the Dodgers trade and this one, they’re giving up good prospects — especially Jeter Downs, who went to the Dodgers — for players who could boost them from a 67-win team to maybe a 78-win team, then all leave in the offseason.
The Reds discussion board I've been reading in recent days is kind of into this plan, basically road-testing players for a year and then going after the ones that they like from those after the season. CIN had their worst attendance in 30 years last year, so they're trying this half-assed plan to help that while holding onto all their top prospects. I agree that it seems pretty dumb overall.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,167
The Reds discussion board I've been reading in recent days is kind of into this plan, basically road-testing players for a year and then going after the ones that they like from those after the season. CIN had their worst attendance in 30 years last year, so they're trying this half-assed plan to help that while holding onto all their top prospects. I agree that it seems pretty dumb overall.
Sons of Chis Sabo must be a fun place!
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
11,794
The Reds have his old Vanderbilt pitching coach, they know exactly what they’re getting.
You pay for what someone is, not what you hope they’ll be. Gray ended last season as a middle reliever who was last on their major league depth chart. That’s what you’re trading for.

If they give up anything of substance without the Yankees absorbing the entire contract, they’re the suckers at the high stakes poker table. Of course, we already knew that.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Again, they had to give up this much because other teams wanted him too. You think he's worthless, I think he's pretty worthless (or at least I would DFA him rather than see him pitch ever again for NY), but multiple front offices disagree, thankfully for NY.

FWIW, here's a perspective from a Reds fan just posted (plenty of them hate this deal too):

"I'm fine with this, and I'm somebody who gets excited about the draft and prospects. Glad Stephenson is staying -- that would have stung. Wasn't that high on Long any more (he's way overrated on this board, IMO), and the #36 slot in the draft is a wildcard. Plenty of other opportunities to make hay in the 2019 draft, and it looks like they'll have a good shot at extra pickage in 2020 anyway.

Really excited to see what Gray can do in the NL under Derek Johnson. He's borderline Reds country (Tennessee), so I think they'll have a shot to re-sign him if he proves worthy. If he stinks, I'll be surprised if there's much to regret.

Front office has done a fantastic job this offseason, IMO. And there will be more moves."

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?117249-Reds-are-still-trying-to-deal-for-Sonny-Gray&p=3890263&viewfull=1#post3890263
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
I don't think Long is going to be long for NY (heh), they can't really afford to keep a 2B-only guy who's a couple years away on the 40 man. More moves are coming, but nice to see Gray gone.

I wasn't a huge fan of the original deal, but Cashman had to trade for a SP at the 2017 deadline and he was the best option, so he made sure to keep Florial out of the deal and pulled the trigger. The three players he gave up have not covered themselves in glory so far, Kaprielian is always hurt and Mateo regressed again.

Then I wanted to trade Gray last winter, but Cashman did not. Then I couldn't believe they didn't trade him at the deadline when they got Happ and Lynn and sent him to the bullpen, but Cashman thought he could get more by trading him in the offseason. He was probably right, although it meant that NY had to carry Gray for a month before rosters expanded and that was not ideal.

Anyway, bye bye Pickles.
 

Big John

lurker
Dec 9, 2016
1,752
Gray was uncomfortable in the bright lights. He'll be fine in Cincinnati, where no one outside of Southern Ohio cares.
 

StuckOnYouk

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
2,976
CT
I can't believe there are Sox fans bemoaning this.
If the yankees get anything close to what's rumored what are you afraid of?
My fear would have been the Yankees keeping Gray and he morphed back into the pitcher he once was.
Add THAT Gray to the current NY roster and THAT would be a huge worry
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
17,678
Portsmouth, NH
Personally I’m not bemoaning it if it goes down, Shed Long isn’t much to write home about. I don’t love them shedding salary and picking up a draft pick with the attached extra budget there. But I have no earthly clue why the Reds would include the pick, even if other teams were interested then say thanks but no thanks. Their farm system sucks.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
My guess is they move Long for a big chunk of international spending cap, a la Frare to the White Sox last year.
 

crow216

Dragon Wangler
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
13,481
Astoria
Taken from NYYF

More reactions from Reds fans...

  • "If this happens, count me among those that are pissed. Sonny Gray isn't worth anything close to that much. Worse yet, trading away draft picks eats away at the pool."

  • "I wonder if there’s any chance the pick can be the 2020 B pick instead of the 2019 A pick...? That would make it more palatable. Otherwise, Dick got played by Cashman yet again."

  • "Yeah, that draft pick is quite valuable. I would say, it might be equal to S. Gray's value, so this is a big overpay, if true."

  • "For the time being, Dick probably gave up too much. The draft pick is a bridge too far for my taste. But Sonny Gray is a Red. He’s on our side now, and I’m excited to see what he can do."

  • "I wouldn't be surprised if another piece besides Gray is coming the Reds way. Not just because I think that is needed to make the trade fair, but also because that is something Heyman wouldn't consider necessary to include."

  • "Yeah the 36th pick is another Taylor Trammell (35th), Michael Lorenzen (37th) or Jesse Winker (49th). That’s too much. And I’m excited about Gray."

  • "I'm not concerned about what the Reds gave up. This is simply another punt year without even the chance for moving the rotation forward."

  • "Meh, maybe he magically returns to form or becomes a stellar reliever, maybe he's the projected 4.40 ERA guy, who knows. If he's 2013-14 Sonny, then they win the lottery, but, doesn't seem likely. I'm glad they're active this year, this won't cost them much ultimately, or really set them back at all, so, oh well, we'll see."

  • "I have no problem with trading prospects; I do have a problem with trading prospects for a return that is not commensurate with the prospects’ value. Sonny Gray is not worth a 50 FV prospect. If the Reds want to improve the 2019 product by trading Shed Long, there are better options than Gray."

  • "This is still a really dumb front office."

  • "That’s too much unless there’s something else coming back. And I actually like Gray quite a bit. I’m happy it’s Long instead of Stephenson, but adding in the draft pick seems like way too much for Gray alone."

  • "Tough to understand why Gray is worth this much atm. While I do believe he will be pretty good this year he shouldnt have commanded shed and a first round comp pick. Reds are really paying for past production here. Hope there is no third piece either but wouldnt be surprised. They must believe they can get him extended considering the Johnson connection but I won't hold my breathe."

  • "I think Gray is going to be good. We can get Shed Long back in a couple of years when the Yankees DFA him."

  • "Just for some perspective, the Brewers traded their competitive balance pick last month for Alex Claudio, not exactly a huge gamechanger. Now with that said, my feeling is that while I’m not going to especially miss what is being given up, the price here was a bit steeper than it needed to be. Hopefully Gray lives up to it."

  • "I've moved toward being okay with trading Long, as the Reds are deep at 2B and 2B value seems to be incredibly low right now. The draft pick is insane to me. You need all the lottery tickets and draft pool money you can get."

  • "Yep that’s a bad trade alright"

  • "Agree with being okay with Long. Alone, it’s a slight overpay to give him, but he doesn’t have a clear path to the big club and there are a number of parties interested in Gray. But giving anything else of significant value seems crazy to me unless the Reds just absolutely hate this draft class. Even then, the loss of the pool money from that pick alone hurts a bit."

  • "trading the draft pick bothers me (although i would still do the deal). But shed long? i don't get the angst from reds fans. 23-year-old 2b with a career minor league ops of .788."

  • "I'm okay with trading Long. We didn't give up a Senzel, Greene, India, or Trammel type prospect. Gray is a solid arm. Props to Williams for improving the rotation with Wood, Roark, & seemingly Gray."

  • "If Shed Long were in any other organization nobody on here would want to acquire him."

  • "Before Shed Long's name started getting mentioned in the Sonny Gray trade rumors I used to peruse our various Reds Top 10 prospect lists and think, man how the hell is Shed Long on this list?[/quote]"

  • "Another top 10 prospect for a one year rental. One that the Yankees were going to give away no matter what. One that had a shade under 5 ERA last year. Gonna be a super fun year gunning, battling to stay out of the division cellar. Let’s enjoy it because we are mortgaging parts of our future."
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
I have been reading that board for the last few days (the Reds one those are taken from), it is actually pretty good. It is really hard if you are stuck in the middle like the Mets or the Reds, tearing it down isn't always the answer either. Someone there made the point there that all three of Roark, Wood and Gray had top 10 Cy Young seasons in their relatively recent pasts, they have a nice core of young position players already up, and they have held on to their top tier of prospects, with the possible exception of Downs but their top 4-5 are the impact ones.

The guy I'd be scared about if I were a Reds fan is the as yet unannounced second prospect, Cashman has been plundering the lower minors of other teams in recent years at a percentage-defying rate.
 

Wingack

Yankee Mod
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
21,995
In The Quivering Forest
I have been reading that board for the last few days (the Reds one those are taken from), it is actually pretty good. It is really hard if you are stuck in the middle like the Mets or the Reds, tearing it down isn't always the answer either. Someone there made the point there that all three of Roark, Wood and Gray had top 10 Cy Young seasons in their relatively recent pasts, they have a nice core of young position players already up, and they have held on to their top tier of prospects, with the possible exception of Downs but their top 4-5 are the impact ones.

The guy I'd be scared about if I were a Reds fan is the as yet unannounced second prospect, Cashman has been plundering the lower minors of other teams in recent years at a percentage-defying rate.
I have visited that site for years. Easily one of the best fanboards out there in my opinion.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
40 man moves are getting more and more interesting, and now that most primary business has been taken care of, one wonders how long the remnants of Ellsbury will survive.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
This Reds minor league beat writer is not happy about this deal. Earlier this offseason CIN traded for Tanner Roark, who has 1 year at $10M left, so very similar circumstances. Tanner Rainey went for Roark even up...

"Tanner Rainey was a grade 40 prospect for Fangraphs. That's a surplus value of $2M.

Shed Long + the draft pick + another prospect is worth roughly $30M in surplus value."

https://twitter.com/dougdirt24
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
And again wow, here is a rave report on our new tiny Shed, maybe he is a keeper:



 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
So NY's team is close to set after a lot of work, I think they are down to one 25 man roster altering move left. I really think they need to add an above average to great defensive 3B and bump Andujar to DH or trade him, but maybe they are done. Here are the possibilities as I see them:

1) Stand pat and Andujar is at 3B, Stanton at DH, Clint Frazier trying to beat out Gardner for LF.

2) Make the move everyone has expected all winter and sign Machado, Andujar to DH, Stanton to LF, Gardner 4th OF, Clint to AAA.

3) Sign Moustakas to a 1 year deal, everything else the same as #2. Go after Arenado next winter.

4) Trade Andujar and more for Arenado, then trade with STL for Jose Martinez for primary DH, who shouldn't cost too much as he is a terrible fielder everywhere and the NL of course has no DH, he is under team control for 4 years to Andujar's 5.

5) Give the all defense-no hit Gio Urshela (signed to a minor league deal with NY currently) a shot, everything else the same as #2 again. Urshela is close to an automatic out at the plate, but he played 3B down the stretch of 2017 for the then unbeatable Indians, CLE went 29-11 in his starts. With a lefty-heavy staff (3 SPs, 2 of the top 3 relievers), I think a very good defensive 3B is crucial.

I think I like choice 4 here the best even though it's the only one you lose Andujar's bat. Heyman said today this exact scenario wasn't happening, but it makes sense to me and Arenado seems like he could very quickly be a team leader and galvanizer, so getting him in place a year early has a lot of value IMO. I am OK with anything that gets Andujar off 3B, though, I can't deal with another season of 'Past a Tilting Miggy'.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
What would it take to get Arenado if they don't include Andujar?
Machado was traded mid-season last year, so you could use that package and this winter’s Goldschmidt deal as rough guidelines for value. I think COL would probably need Andujar in exchange just for optics for their fans, but dunno.
 

crow216

Dragon Wangler
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
13,481
Astoria
Machado was traded mid-season last year, so you could use that package and this winter’s Goldschmidt deal as rough guidelines for value. I think COL would probably need Andujar in exchange just for optics for their fans, but dunno.
If our options are

a) Andujar + others for Arenado
or
b) Machado and keeping Andujar

I'll take B every time, unless we really think Machado has compatibility issues in NY. I'm happy to go after Arenado but I can't see a scenario where a makes sense over b. If Machado wasn't available, A would be probably be okay, but still an overpay considering the salary aspect of Arenado and likelihood if him actually wanting to accept an extension offer.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
My argument there would be that Andujar's future on this team should only be at DH (for another team, I think he could maybe play an adequate LF or 1B), and Jose Martinez would largely replace him (Martinez's career OPS is .850, Andujar's is .863, both in limited ABs) and would likely not cost too much to trade for as he's a DH stuck in the NL. Even letting Stanton and Clint split LF and DH is not much of a downgrade here in all likelihood.

So if Yankee management thinks that Arenado is a leader and a great clubhouse guy and Machado is a great player but also a malcontent at times who is prone to inexplicably dirty plays, there's a huge difference. It'd be one thing if you were talking about a 1-2 year fill-in, but this is a long-term core piece, a guy will be your highest or second highest paid player.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
So the Reds somehow have a 72 hour window to negotiate an extension with Gray before this deal is final, people talk about those as possibilities all the time but they almost never actually happen.

This window ends sometime tomorrow, and the reporting about what happens if they don't agree is pretty muddled (Heyman and Rosenthal tweeted about it a few times each if you care), but I guess we will know tomorrow afternoon/night either way. My guess is that they agreed to do a deal either way which is why Cashman allowed the window, but the return is a bit less if Gray wants to go to FA (where no one will want you because you actually suck, Sonny, TAKE THE MONEY NOW BEFORE PEOPLE REMEMBER THIS).

So yeah, week 13 of the Gray sweepstakes continues for at least one more day.
 

EvilEmpire

Dope
Staff member
Dope
Gold Supporter
Apr 9, 2007
9,801
Washington
Interesting. I don't expect Sonny G. to agree to an extension with his value so low. I'm sure he'd rather bet on himself than take what will almost certainly be a low offer. But who knows.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
He grew up in Tennessee and then went to Vanderbilt, so something of a local boy (a few hundred miles). CIN’s main concern this year seems to be their freefalling attendance (30 year low) so maybe they are imagining a world where Gray is someone people will come to see (and maybe they are right).
 

crow216

Dragon Wangler
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
13,481
Astoria
Interesting. I don't expect Sonny G. to agree to an extension with his value so low. I'm sure he'd rather bet on himself than take what will almost certainly be a low offer. But who knows.
I'm not sure that one solid year will significantly change what he might get, given how the market is trending. 3/$30m and buy out this year.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
43,954
Also CIN's backup catcher Curt Casali was evidently his catcher at Vanderbilt, Heyman says:

"Here’s why there’s still good reason to believe Reds will get extension w/ Sonny: 1. Reds like Sonny very much 2. Sonny has said players want to play where they’re wanted 3. Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson was Sonny’s coach at Vanderbilt 4. Cincy is close to his Tennessee home."