2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Gonna go ahead and start this because we've been waiting for this for a while, the spending limits are (should be) off, NY has a ton of money to spend and there are some prime targets out there. I will do something more thorough when I have time and energy, but basically something like this:

Fire Boone (he's not terrible but he is clearly not good enough for this job, and he's not learning from his mistakes).

Gardner, McCutchen, Sabathia, Robertson, Britton all gone.

Sign Machado, move Stanton to LF, move Andujar to primary DH/backup 1B/backup 3B.

Unless Cashman has something better lined up via the trade market, sign Happ and Corbin.

Starting 9: Sanchez, Voit (Bird to AAA, sorry dude), Torres, Didi, Machado, Stanton, Hicks, Judge, Andujar.

Rotation: Severino, Tanaka, Happ, Corbin, Loaisiga/German/Sheffield.

Bullpen: Holder, Green, Betances, Chapman.

That is all assuming no trades, and there are going to be trades. Very excited for the offseason, and as of next season I think Cashman goes back to being judged on whether his team wins WS or not.
 

keninten

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Gonna go ahead and start this because we've been waiting for this for a while, the spending limits are (should be) off, NY has a ton of money to spend and there are some prime targets out there. I will do something more thorough when I have time and energy, but basically something like this:

Fire Boone (he's not terrible but he is clearly not good enough for this job, and he's not learning from his mistakes).

Gardner, McCutchen, Sabathia, Robertson, Britton all gone.

Sign Machado, move Stanton to LF, move Andujar to primary DH/backup 1B/backup 3B.

Unless Cashman has something better lined up via the trade market, sign Happ and Corbin.

Starting 9: Sanchez, Voit (Bird to AAA, sorry dude), Torres, Didi, Machado, Stanton, Hicks, Judge, Andujar.

Rotation: Severino, Tanaka, Happ, Corbin, Loaisiga/German/Sheffield.

Bullpen: Holder, Green, Betances, Chapman.

That is all assuming no trades, and there are going to be trades. Very excited for the offseason, and as of next season I think Cashman goes back to being judged on whether his team wins WS or not.
If Andujar is going to be primarily a DH, they should trade him.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Clearly the Yanks will be in the playoffs 4 or 5 of the next 5 years, but it's a crap shoot still. Adding Machado and signing one of Robertson or Britton to the pen, signing Happ and likely promoting Sheffield to the ML team full time will be their main moves and they'll be a beat.
I think they'll leverage Andujar to deal for a young starter and keep Bird as the primary DH/rotation rest spot.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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It certainly doesn't feel like NY needs another bat, but as you said they have the money right now. I think Corbin has to be the primary target this offseason, but he doesn't come without risk with his completely out of line career year happening.

As a Sox fan, I'd love to see the Yankees overpay for Happ. He turns 36 next week. I think SP is where they need to use their system depth in a major trade.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'm fine with CC coming back on a team friendly deal. Severino, Tanaka, Happ, Corbin and Sabathia works for me. The Loaisiga/German/Sheffield part of the rotation is going to happen with injuries as they come up anyway.
 

crow216

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I’m going to wait a few days before posting about what we need or what Cashman will do specifically. However, it seems painfully obvious that although we had all the pitching we would need to make a long run this year, the way our pitching was setup (short starts with bullpens coming in early) left the margin for error very small. Boone is not a manager who can manage well with small margins for error.

Regarding Cashman, if he loses out on another top of the rotation option because of reluctance to include an extra prospect, I’ll be upset.

I wouldn’t be upset to see a new pitching coach either. If JBJ can figure out how Severino is tipping pitches, then our staff should too.
 

Winger 03

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Agree on most of what Abbey says. Corbin is 29 and while not old, that and his decent season this year makes me wonder if he will be looking for a lot of $$$ for pretty much a .500 pitcher. Haap's age gives me concern as well.

Boone - not too certain what to make of a replacement if all he will do is take direction from Cashman. If that is the case the only person to take the job will be someone w/o experience (ie: controllable) and if that is the case, might as well stick with the devil you know. If, however, Cashman decides to hand over baseball management to someone without interference, then by all means go out and get an experienced guy.

I've seen (or not seen) enough of Bird that I can't count on him for much of anything. AAA is his home absent some call-ups or trips to the DL.

Tough way to go out last night, but the Sox are pretty damn good - no shame in losing to them.
 

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Gonna go ahead and start this because we've been waiting for this for a while, the spending limits are (should be) off, NY has a ton of money to spend and there are some prime targets out there. I will do something more thorough when I have time and energy, but basically something like this:

Fire Boone (he's not terrible but he is clearly not good enough for this job, and he's not learning from his mistakes).
Who do you like as his replacement?
 

EvilEmpire

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I think they'll stick with Boone, and I'm fine with it. They won 100 games and lost to a great team in a short series. It happens. I'd consider Francona if he left Cleveland though. I've always liked him.
 

Wingack

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I doubt Francona is going anywhere. How would you feel about Maddon?
Big NO to Maddon. He thinks he is smarter than he is.

How do you improve on a 100 win team? This is a team that won that many games despite not having its best player for a quarter of the year. If they can keep the pen together I think they try to do that.

I like Corbin a ton, but I also like Paxton even with his health issues, I see if I can shake him lose from the M's for a big package (including Andujar.) I assume Sonny Gray will be traded and I think this is the year the Yankees finally cut Ellsbury.

I think they need to look into the health of Severino. Something clearly is wrong with him and has been for a few months now. He is an ace, but if he isn't going to pitch like one down the stretch, that is a huge problem.

Voit is interesting and a real gamble to go into next year relying on him as an every day player.

The Yankees are going to go out and get a big ticket item and maybe a couple more big ticket items to add to it, but I just don't know that that is what this team actually needs.
 

jon abbey

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Who do you like as his replacement?
I mean, obviously no idea, but I don't think it's necessarily an experience issue. I will answer with the same two names I liked last winter, Raul Ibanez (NY tried to interview him and he wasn't interested) and Carlos Beltran (he had just retired and NY ended up interviewing him but didn't choose him). My impression is that both of them are much more tuned into the flow of a game, and if Boone hasn't learned that after this many decades around the sport, he's not going to suddenly learn it next year.
 

jon abbey

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Also, FWIW, in my scenario above, NY wouldn't be relying on Voit as they'd also have Andujar and Bird as 1B options. I think Voit should be the projected starter coming into spring training, though, based on his last two months as well as still being pre-arb and under cheap team control for a long time.
 

jon abbey

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And yeah, Sonny Gray has to be traded this winter, I actually forgot he existed when making the original post.
 

Wingack

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Also, FWIW, in my scenario above, NY wouldn't be relying on Voit as they'd also have Andujar and Bird as 1B options. I think Voit should be the projected starter coming into spring training, though, based on his last two months as well as still being pre-arb and under cheap team control for a long time.
Yeah I wasn’t responding specifically to your post, just generally wondering what they do with this guy.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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Mods, should the Boone discussion be broken out from the roster building discussion?

As an outsider, I'd be pretty upset over how he managed the team in the postseason, but it's a tough call to fire a guy that won 100 games and lost to a 108 win team in a 5 game postseason series. His in game management isn't great, but it does appear he did a great job with getting the most out of young players. Going from Farrell to Cora, it's clear just how important that is as well.
 

Rough Carrigan

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Big NO to Maddon. He thinks he is smarter than he is.

How do you improve on a 100 win team? This is a team that won that many games despite not having its best player for a quarter of the year. If they can keep the pen together I think they try to do that.

I like Corbin a ton, but I also like Paxton even with his health issues, I see if I can shake him lose from the M's for a big package (including Andujar.) I assume Sonny Gray will be traded and I think this is the year the Yankees finally cut Ellsbury.

I think they need to look into the health of Severino. Something clearly is wrong with him and has been for a few months now. He is an ace, but if he isn't going to pitch like one down the stretch, that is a huge problem.

Voit is interesting and a real gamble to go into next year relying on him as an every day player.

The Yankees are going to go out and get a big ticket item and maybe a couple more big ticket items to add to it, but I just don't know that that is what this team actually needs.
Do you worry that the team will have some of the stereotypical hardass manager to nice guy manager fall off after the initial surge? I'm not sure how well this tracks with recent teams but I remember, years ago, Bill James looking at some teams, Orioles after Weaver, Royals after Herzog, etc and there seemed to be some trend of good teams run by hardass managers (Girardi?) who then got a relative softy and had a quick burst of improvement followed by slope down as all the things that the hardass manager kept in line got out of control.
 

jon abbey

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Do you worry that the team will have some of the stereotypical hardass manager to nice guy manager fall off after the initial surge? I'm not sure how well this tracks with recent teams but I remember, years ago, Bill James looking at some teams, Orioles after Weaver, Royals after Herzog, etc and there seemed to be some trend of good teams run by hardass managers (Girardi?) who then got a relative softy and had a quick burst of improvement followed by slope down as all the things that the hardass manager kept in line got out of control.
On top of this (which I think is a very valid concern), there is a good chance the clubhouse will lose both veteran leaders next year in Sabathia and Gardner, and so that component of a manager will be even more important.
 

Old Fart Tree

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They need starting pitching: I don’t think more sluggers is going to fill a big need. Their starters just pitched what, 8 innings in three starts? Starting pitching is the answer.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I think they need to look into the health of Severino. Something clearly is wrong with him and has been for a few months now. He is an ace, but if he isn't going to pitch like one down the stretch, that is a huge problem.
What was his usage like down the stretch? Wonder if he was running into the same fatigue issues Sale has dealt with in the past and going forward he needs to be sidelined with a few "injuries" in the latter half of the season that allow him to save some gas for the postseason.
 

jon abbey

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They need starting pitching: I don’t think more sluggers is going to fill a big need. Their starters just pitched what, 8 innings in three starts? Starting pitching is the answer.
Machado would be more about improving the defense, Andujar is unplayable at 3B.
 

jon abbey

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No one thinks Harper is going to be the new first baseman? I kind of do.
I did think this until Voit's emergence, I could also see NY possibly moving Stanton to the Dodgers (where he wanted to go last winter but they didn't have the salary space) and going after Harper.
 

brs3

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The Yankees were relying on JA Happ and CC Sabathia to do the heavy lifting. If they manage to find a Sonny Gray that's more reliable, and another innings eater, they'll be well equipped to exceed their 100 wins this year. Severino is only 24, there's no reason to think he won't be the ace they need.The lineup is stacked, and their bullpen is one of the best. David Robertson will prob command closer money on the FA market, so they might lose him. Andrew Miller is a FA, so they could pursue him as a replacement.

Canning Aaron Boone seems excessive. He appears to have made some blunders, but by and large he's done well with what he had.

edit: I realize finding a Sonny Gray type AND an innings eater is a lot. My point is they're just a solid starter or 2 away from being a truly scary team.
 

Wingack

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No one thinks Harper is going to be the new first baseman? I kind of do.
Not a bad idea.

They need starting pitching: I don’t think more sluggers is going to fill a big need. Their starters just pitched what, 8 innings in three starts? Starting pitching is the answer.
Sure. But Sevy, Tanaka and Happ should be good enough. They were during the season.
 

jon abbey

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I have a feeling that the bidding for Machado could get insane and, despite his bluster, Harper could end up being a "bargain." And he's been pretty clear about his love for the Yankees.
Doesn't fix your third base defense, of course, but I can't help you with everything.
Donaldson is a cheaper possibility than Machado also.
 

jon abbey

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Good call.
Donaldson, Harper, Corbin, and Britton or Robertson is my prediction.
Maybe add in Happ too, the only definite rotation guys at this point are Severino/Tanaka (and Montgomery should be back mid-season at some point, but of course you can't count on him for anything).
 

reggiecleveland

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Two things
1. It must be nice to just list off free agents and know your team can just go get them.
2. The Yankees are a good team with young players. It would seem a mistake to just throw money at remaking what is a good team.

Now I am on record as saying if the Yankees went 0-162 for three years then won game 162 the 4th year to go 1-161 I would swear when the score scrolled on the screen, but...my thoughts.

Keep Judge and Stanton together.Judge was hurt and Stanton had trouble adjusting, (Sanchez too) and the team set a HR record. Both guys get it gong and a 300hr team is possible. I don't by the "homers don't work in the post season", last season the Sox were sure they could not win because they didn't hit enough homers. Judge in particular is young and seems to be ready to shine under the spotlight. Giving away two or three draft picks for the short term when a solid system could keep feeding talent to build around Judge seems short sighted.

Think about the manager, or maybe he just needs to think. But a quicker hook in either game 3 or 4 and we are probably sweating through game 5 tomorrow. Boone seems level headed enough to learn and handle NY, and he seems good at picking matchups for the lineup. I mean a 100 wins when Judge was hurt, Stanton slumped, Sanchez hit under 200?

Sorry I mean
Sigh Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Pay all of Stanton's contract and get that choker out of town!!!!!
 

reggiecleveland

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Harper, Machado and Corbin have all been tied to NY previously this free agent period for various legitimate reasons, Ottavino too (https://www.denverpost.com/2018/05/06/adam-ottavino-new-york-state-of-mind/) although not sure I see that one at the money he'll likely command. I think Donaldson has been the only player mentioned who hasn't been connected to NY in the past.
Legitimate reasons meaning the Yankees have the most money right?
My point is the Yankees are already a great team and throwing money around may not be the best way to improve.
 

jon abbey

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No, there are actual reasons for each, as I said. I linked the Ottavino one because it’s lesser known but if you google any of the other three and Yankees, there are connections there also.

As for the second part, they are a very good team but they have a bunch of guys leaving and holes to fill and a ton of money to potentially spend. As Joel Sherman said today:

"The Yankees have used a lot of farm system the past two years to chase a title with promotions and trades, and while they still have a good prospect base, it is not what it was. So, this is an offseason to, whenever possible, buy instead of trade."

https://nypost.com/2018/10/10/greinke-corbin-arenado-heres-ideal-yankees-offseason-of-reloading/
 

Sampo Gida

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Not a huge fan of Boone but he is getting a bad wrap IMO

Yankees scored 1 run in game 3 and the runner who scored reached on an IF hit that probably should have been out if the reviewers didnt take pity on Angel. Boone did not lose that game.

As for game 3 CC had pitched pretty well. Some bad luck on BABIP and hitters really made him work. He had allowed 1 run and had 2 outs facing the weak part of the Red Sox order. The next 2 delivered and it was 3-0 after 3. Surely you expect your offense at YS3 to overcome that with 21 outs to go against Porcello (hardly a Cy Young this year) and a weak Red Sox pen.

Games 3 and 4 were lost by the offense with the help of some bad luck (Vazquez YS3 special and Sanchez just missed GS)

Yankees won 101 games ( incl WC ) getting little from Gary Sanchez, nothing from Greg Bird, 2 rookies (3 at the end) , missing Judge for 7 weeks, sub par year by Gardner, a lesser Stanton, nothing much that was good from Sonny Gray, losing Montgomery to TJS, sub par Tanaka in first half, a sub par Severino in 2nd half , and 33 starts from his 6-12 starters who put up a 5 + ERA collectively and needing a couple of patch jobs in Happ,needing McClutchen and Voit

Lost to a 108 W team that spent 40 million more on payroll. I would say Boone had a good rookie year.

To understand whats needed for next year one must embrace regression

For position players Stanton, Judge, Sanchez should be better

Having a full year after some MLB experience should make Andujar and Torres better in 2019

A Bird/Voit platoon should be better than 2018 production from 1B

More of the same from Didi and Hicks

Overall, health permitting the offense and defense should be better even if they go with Gardner for another year. Maybe Frazier will be ok at some time next year. No need to do anything

Pens almost all set, just need to resign D-Rob , and Britton and add Kimbrel

All remaining bullets need to be set aside for SPing. Severino and Tanaka plus 3 additions. Keuchel, Happ and part with some prospects for another front line pitcher like Madison Bumgarner
 

DeadlySplitter

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Kimbrel is coming to NYY? with Chapman there? no way.

also while the Yanks played the egg of their life in game 3, Boone let the 4th get away from him, if you keep it 4-0 or 5-0 there at worst maybe the game plays out differently when Eovaldi can't just coast on pumping fastballs in the zone. at 10-0 the game was effectively over.
 

JohntheBaptist

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If the Yankees are spending money this offseason and "have more money than everyone else," it is because their GM carefully and methodically maxed out their current roster while playing by the rules that would eventually allow them to do so. That is a tired, dumb, irrelevant complaint.

I would consider seriously seeing what Sanchez would return in a trade. I don't have some grand plan on who they would/ should target, but someone that is defense-first, great with pitchers could really give whatever makeover they do on that staff an added bounce without, ultimately, sacrificing too much 2018 offense. It just strikes me like a good bird's eye team-building move, similar to moving Nomar maybe. Can appreciate others would disagree.

I would also seriously avoid Harper, focus on grabbing Machado and let Stanton settle into his new surroundings a bit. If Stanton "is" a 900 OPS guy with solid defense I think they'd survive that.

I'd let Britton walk for sure, Robertson too. Ottavino in NYY scares me.

They're really close though. Gleyber is going to break out Bregman-style next year I think. What would a likely return on Sanchez look like? Might not even be worth doing I guess.
 

reggiecleveland

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At least you know what it feels like too. :)
Almost. I have lots of Jays fans as friends. Sucks being them.
The Yankees, and Sox have done the best when they don't use the throw money strategy. I still think Judge is a beast to build around and the yankees have a longer window now than the Sox. If they look at Harper and think he is the best guy, then it is the move to make, but some of this seems to be "he is the best player so automatically the Yankees should get him." Machado I am less certain about for the Yankees. Is Andujar that bad? He looks like a stud to me. What are the chances Machado is the better player 3 years from now?

I thought the Yankees were the best team going into the season, now JD was better than expected as was regular season Price, and the Yankees were banged up. Again I will say Judge was hurt, and they still won 100 games.
 

E5 Yaz

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I would consider seriously seeing what Sanchez would return in a trade. I don't have some grand plan on who they would/ should target, but someone that is defense-first, great with pitchers could really give whatever makeover they do on that staff an added bounce without, ultimately, sacrificing too much 2018 offense.
Maybe they could just call Captain Intangibles for help in that area
 

snowmanny

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They could at least give Boone a very experienced bench coach.
 

jon abbey

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I really don't have the energy to do too much of this for a bit, but the Boone criticisms are not just based on this series, they are the same issues that we have been talking about in Yankee threads all season long, The main one by far is that he is fine at deploying a game plan decided upon beforehand (often largely from the front office) but when conditions change in the middle of the game for whatever reason, he is absolutely awful at adjusting on the fly and he didn't get better as the season went on. I doubt he will be better next year, but I also thought NY should dump Hicks after his dreadful 2016 and Betances after his dreadful 2017, so maybe Cashman will end up right on this one also.
 

tims4wins

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I really don't have the energy to do too much of this for a bit, but the Boone criticisms are not just based on this series, they are the same issues that we have been talking about in Yankee threads all season long, The main one by far is that he is fine at deploying a game plan decided upon beforehand (often largely from the front office) but when conditions change in the middle of the game for whatever reason, he is absolutely awful at adjusting on the fly and he didn't get better as the season went on. I doubt he will be better next year, but I also thought NY should dump Hicks after his dreadful 2016 and Betances after his dreadful 2017, so maybe Cashman will end up right on this one also.
This sounds nearly verbatim what we were saying about Farrell last year. Hope you guys don’t find your Cora or you’ll be even more scary.
 

crow216

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Looking at cots, they have $88M committed before arb. Didi, Sonny (if they don't trade him), and Dellin will add about $25m and probably another $10m from the remaining guys. So round it up to $40 and get them to $128m. The Yankees easily can get into the $200s. The answer to your question is that they have as much as money as they possibly could need to do anything they want financially.
 

jon abbey

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So what's the payroll ceiling? How much do you think they have to spend?
This is a good question and a topic I'll go into in depth at some point, but some really rough numbers have them around $130M after arb awards and the first luxury tax level line is $206M. If I were Hal, I would give Cashman permission to at least go to the higher level if he wanted (the one BOS went through over the summer, in the $230M range?), but of course there are longer term factors also, Hicks and Gregorius are FAs after 2019 for instance so extensions could be involved also.

Honestly with the tax rate reset, Cashman might have permission to spend whatever he thinks makes the most sense and NY will deal with whatever penalties from there, but of course I have no actual idea here. 25 year old superstars like Machado and Harper almost never hit FA these days though, it's going to be interesting.

Edit: Crosspost with Crow, who said what I said in a lot fewer words.