2015 Free Agency: The Waiver Wire Watch

[bakahump]

 
With Wilfork gone, having players that can protect against the run becomes that much more important. Nink has been very good at setting the edge against the run.

No Doubt KP.   But with Revis gone its also important to bolster the Pass Rush.  While I will admit that historically Nink has been one of our Better Rushers....that was with Vince in the Fold....and they seemed often the result of coverage rather then Nink "making a play". Plus his age is "getting there". I simply think we could find a better talent (presumably in the draft) that could provide that same production for less money. But will admit that the draft (or any new player acquisition) is a gamble.
 
I will certainly agree that there is something about this that makes sense to the powers that be.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

To change it up, has Ridley gotten looks anywhere? How has he progressed from the injury?

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

However meat and potatoes unsexy it may have been, Nink has been one of this team's most consistent playmakers. It ain't pretty sometimes, and it's often subtle-ish (see: the stop on Lynch to force a FG in our most recent game), but that's absolutely the truth. Over the last three or four seasons, which defensive player has shown up with big plays more often than Ninkovich?

 

[dcmissle]

To change it up, has Ridley gotten looks anywhere? How has he progressed from the injury?

Heard nothing about him. Hurt guy at a position where everyone but very few seems fungible. A year ago, the thought was the Pats would not be able to afford him.

 

[Ed Hillel]

However meat and potatoes unsexy it may have been, Nink has been one of this team's most consistent playmakers. It ain't pretty sometimes, and it's often subtle-ish (see: the stop on Lynch to force a FG in our most recent game), but that's absolutely the truth. Over the last three or four seasons, which defensive player has shown up with big plays more often than Ninkovich?

 
He's such a strange player. There are times where it looks like he doesn't belong in the league, but then he'll show up out of nowhere with a huge play. You mention his huge stuff of Lynch, and he also had a huge sack late in the game. But now check out Lynch's TD run on 3rd and goal; I'm not sure you could find a DE in the league who would look worse. He gets a brutally slow start and then gets punished by the Tackle:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU5llyZZKxI
 
Now a significant issue may well be that he's played like 99% of snaps the past 3 seasons, which is utterly insane. Bringing Sheard in is really going to help him, I think. Nink is a playmaker, no doubt, and that makes up for any warts he may have. I'm not sure I remember a guy quite like him.
 
Edit - 3rd and 2, not 3rd and Goal.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
He's such a strange player. There are times where it looks like he doesn't belong in the league, but then he'll show up out of nowhere with a huge play. You mention his huge stuff of Lynch, and he also had a huge sack late in the game. But now check out Lynch's TD run on 3rd and goal; I'm not sure you could find a DE in the league who would look worse. He gets a brutally slow start and then gets punished by the Tackle:
 
Edit - 3rd and 2, not 3rd and Goal.

 
Thats not really a fair assessment, Ed. The Seahawks are lined up in shotgun at the goaline, so the Patriots shadow a safety over Marshawn. They destroy the pocket, which was the original target for Marshawn, so he bounced it outside. Because the Patriots blew up the pocket, it left Nink out on an island against the tackle (Nink was protecting the edge, which was his job.) Marshawn could go B gap or C gap. Nink bit B gap (a good guess since its the shortest route to the endzone and Marshawn was already planning on going up the middle) and Marshawn made a nice bounce to the outside. Nink couldn't recover.
 
Patient running backs (Moreno, Charles) destroyed the Patriots this year, and Marshawn fits the bill. In a perfect world, Nink would have realized that Jamie Collins was unblocked and had the B gap covered, but that is some serious wishful thinking. The slow jump is a little frustrating, but considering he wasn't going to rush the QB from there, a slow start to set the edge isn't the end of the world.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I don't know, it looks to me like Nink couldn't recover because he was so incredibly slow off the snap that he left himself no space to get leverage and/or avoid the Tackle to plug a gap. If you focus just on him before the snap, I think you'll see how slow he was.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I don't know, it looks to me like Nink couldn't recover because he was so incredibly slow off the snap that he left himself no space to get leverage and/or avoid the Tackle to plug a gap. If you focus just on him before the snap, I think you'll see how slow he was.

 
He was very slow off the snap, but if you actually watch at the tail end of the :06 second mark and the beginning of the :07 second mark, you can see him disengage and make a break to the tackles inside shoulder. Thats when Lynch bounces outside.
 
Again, he was certainly slow off the snap, but I'm not sure how much that was a contributing factor. Nink had no interest in pushing up field. He wanted to hold his gorund to figure out where (and if) the run was coming.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Here's my rushed "I'm at work, going quick so i don't get caught" screenshot.

 
He has the leverage to the inside (both of Nink's hands are on the inside shoulder of the tackle as he's getting ready to push off and drive inside).

 

[Cabin Mirror]

Here's my rushed "I'm at work, going quick so i don't get caught" screenshot.

 
He has the leverage to the inside (both of Nink's hands are on the inside shoulder of the tackle as he's getting ready to push off and drive inside).

 
May I suggest the Boss Button. SoSH needs you on your game.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Is this valid? Per Pats Pulpit, the logic in the Nink restructure lies in weaning his pay off playing time incentives since greater use of player rotations are in store:
 

The Patriots restructured Ninkovich's contract and converted his playing time incentives into a signing bonus to allow for a rotation on the defensive edge with the newly signed Jabaal Sheard. 
 

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Is this valid? Per Pats Pulpit, the logic in the Nink restructure lies in weaning his pay off playing time incentives since greater use of player rotations are in store:

I guess it's possible. Giving a guy an extra $750,000 and relieving him from playing time incentives but giving him the money for those incentives seems like a really generous thing to do. One of the things this may signal is that playing incentives maybe can be a real locker room problem if the player is blocked from achieving them by things other than injury. It doesn't seem very Belichick like to give a shit about players being surly, but maybe this is a real thing and he's learned over time that having to pay attention to where players are on their snap count incentives is just a headache he doesn't want his assistants worrying about.

 

[dcmissle]

This idee fixe that the Pats are out to fuck every player really needs to die. It's not smart, not right, and not valid.

Remember when Vince was gong to get dicked out of his incentive comp in the last game of last season? Well it did not happen.

This crap exists in certain pages of the Herald, the Globe and on certain airwaves. Otherwise, it doesn't.

 

[I12XU]

Couldn't Nink's $ moving into this year be to help get the Pats closer to the 89% average required by the CBA so they have to toss less $ into the penalty pool? I assume we are going to see a few of these payday reworkings as they were under 83% and need to now outlay the full cap to comply.

(http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/02/28/patriots-must-spend-this-year-reach-payroll-minimum/kf1PoK9zvb8PZxDUJGgXAI/story.html#)

 

[JohnnyK]

Couldn't Nink's $ moving into this year be to help get the Pats closer to the 89% average required by the CBA

The spending window is 2013-2016, so it makes no difference.

 

[amarshal2]

I guess it's possible. Giving a guy an extra $750,000 and relieving him from playing time incentives but giving him the money for those incentives seems like a really generous thing to do. One of the things this may signal is that playing incentives maybe can be a real locker room problem if the player is blocked from achieving them by things other than injury. It doesn't seem very Belichick like to give a shit about players being surly, but maybe this is a real thing and he's learned over time that having to pay attention to where players are on their snap count incentives is just a headache he doesn't want his assistants worrying about.

 
The Patriots have been doing this for years.  They negotiate hard during free agency but don't nickel and dime their players out of incentives.  They did it most recently with Vollmer I think.  Giving him all his incentive money guaranteed so he could sit out towards the end of the season to rest up.
 
Edit: might have been Wilfork.  I saw either Kyed or Reiss tweet a history about how common this was recently but haven't been able to find it so I'm stuck with memory.  Sorry.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
The Patriots have been doing this for years.  They negotiate hard during free agency but don't nickel and dime their players out of incentives.  They did it most recently with Vollmer I think.  Giving him all his incentive money guaranteed so he could sit out towards the end of the season to rest up.
 
Edit: might have been Wilfork.  I saw either Kyed or Reiss tweet a history about how common this was recently but haven't been able to find it so I'm stuck with memory.  Sorry.

With Vollmer they lowered the threshholds for various incentives: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4771910/sources-sebastian-vollmers-contract-incentives-changed
It was $1 MM for 80% of snaps, $2 MM for 90% of snaps; they changed it to $1 MM for 70%, $2 MM for 80%. Vollmer finished the regular season at ~89% of offensive snaps, so it made a difference. They were able to sit him in the season finale without worrying about the incentives.
 
This makes a lot of sense; you don't really want a player at odds with management over this stuff. If Ninkovich is going to be more effective playing fewer snaps but he's pushing to play more to reach playing time incentives, that's not ideal. If Vollmer isn't reporting minor injuries because he doesn't want the staff to sit him and keep him from making incentives, that's a bad situation. I'm not sure if Belichick or Kraft learned the hard way about what can happen in this sort of situation, but this is something they've been willing to renegotiate.

 

[Harry Hooper]

With Vollmer they lowered the threshholds for various incentives: http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4771910/sources-sebastian-vollmers-contract-incentives-changed
It was $1 MM for 80% of snaps, $2 MM for 90% of snaps; they changed it to $1 MM for 70%, $2 MM for 80%. Vollmer finished the regular season at ~89% of offensive snaps, so it made a difference. They were able to sit him in the season finale without worrying about the incentives.
 
This makes a lot of sense; you don't really want a player at odds with management over this stuff. If Ninkovich is going to be more effective playing fewer snaps but he's pushing to play more to reach playing time incentives, that's not ideal. If Vollmer isn't reporting minor injuries because he doesn't want the staff to sit him and keep him from making incentives, that's a bad situation. I'm not sure if Belichick or Kraft learned the hard way about what can happen in this sort of situation, but this is something they've been willing to renegotiate.

 
In addition to the players, you want agents to believe playing time incentives offered by the team are offered in good faith.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I'm just going to throw this out there and I'm sure it will be unpopular but I want Adrian Peterson on this team. Restructure the deal to make it work under the cap, make it only guaranteed for a year, wait for the team to cut him and then sign him do what you can but he would make a great offense scary.

 

[Shelterdog]

I'm just going to throw this out there and I'm sure it will be unpopular but I want Adrian Peterson on this team. Restructure the deal to make it work under the cap, make it only guaranteed for a year, wait for the team to cut him and then sign him do what you can but he would make a great offense scary.

 
Please tell me how you do this.  I'm dying to see the cap structure that would work for the Pats and Peterson.

 

[Ed Hillel]

It only becomes possible when Mayo passes a physical, but it's not happening, and nor should it. It's not worth the money and they have other needs.

 

[amarshal2]

 
Please tell me how you do this.  I'm dying to see the cap structure that would work for the Pats and Peterson.

I'm not advocating for this move but you could take a page out of the Cowboys/Greg Hardy deal book and structure it with NLTBE incentives around games played.

Essentially because AP didn't play many games last year by putting much of his salary in per game played incentives you would keep that money from counting against the cap for 2015. Reminder that only incentives the player achieved the previous year are counted against the cap while the rest are considered "not likely to be earned" and are not counted against that year's cap.

You could also give him a fat signing bonus and put a bunch of fake years in the contract to spread it out for 2015 purposes.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Isn't a Mayo trade to the 49ers somewhere in the middle or end of the training camp inevitable?

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Not with Hightower possibly starting the year on pup, an inexperienced secondary, a need for leadership in the front 7, not to mention Mayo's injury history likely scaring off teams, including the LB-needy 49ers.

 

[ivanvamp]

Well, maybe AP - assuming they could somehow make the numbers work, which isn't likely - could be a strange way around the Pats' secondary issues.  There are many ways to win in the NFL.  You can win with big-time offense, or you can win with big-time defense, or some combination of the two.  The Patriots, with Adrian Peterson as the lead RB, would have an absolutely ridiculous, off-the-charts offense.  One that probably, in all honesty, could (should?) average more than 40 points a game.  He's that good.  The Pats have had solid, workman-like RBs during Brady's tenure, and that's been plenty good enough for them to average 30+ points a game and win 4 SBs.  But they've never had, in this era, a running back like Peterson (well, how many teams HAVE had a guy like Peterson?).  He is both powerful and incredibly explosive.  Nothing he can't do for his position.  He can grind out the tough yards.  He can rip 80 yard TDs if you give him a seam.  He's the kind of threat that teams MUST account for.  
 
So you have him, Edelman, LaFell, Gronk, and Chandler on the field at the same time.  What does the defense focus on?  If they play man, that weakens the run D unless they stack the line and offer no help to the WRs.  Then just go play-action and win so many one-on-one battles (including Gronk on a hapless defender).
 
Defenses play the pass and Peterson rips off huge chunks of yards.
 
Defenses play straight up, and the Pats can pick their matchup.
 
If you're going to be weaker on defense, one way to deal with that is to become so unstoppable on offense that it doesn't matter.  And doing it by adding a huge running upgrade means you're making your offense more diverse - you're not just adding another receiving weapon (like Andre Johnson) to the mix.  You're still able to win ball-control games or high-scoring shootouts.
 
Now, we all know that this won't happen.  But my goodness.

 

[Ed Hillel]

BB is in peak form at the coach's breakfast, grumbling into the mic, telling people to refer to statements, giving one sentence answers, etc. The best was when he was asked if Revis leaving would change his defensive scheme and he paused for a second and said "I don't know."

 

[Shelterdog]

I'm not advocating for this move but you could take a page out of the Cowboys/Greg Hardy deal book and structure it with NLTBE incentives around games played.

Essentially because AP didn't play many games last year by putting much of his salary in per game played incentives you would keep that money from counting against the cap for 2015. Reminder that only incentives the player achieved the previous year are counted against the cap while the rest are considered "not likely to be earned" and are not counted against that year's cap.

You could also give him a fat signing bonus and put a bunch of fake years in the contract to spread it out for 2015 purposes.

 
Maybe somebody does use the NLTBEs but I think Peterson is a good enough player to get, at a minimum, 3/30 with 15 guaranteed (either signing bonuses or guaranteed contracts in years 1 and 2).  I just don't see him being cheap enough that the Pats can get him on a cheap one and done contract.

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
Maybe somebody does use the NLTBEs but I think Peterson is a good enough player to get, at a minimum, 3/30 with 15 guaranteed (either signing bonuses or guaranteed contracts in years 1 and 2).  I just don't see him being cheap enough that the Pats can get him on a cheap one and done contract.

 
I think is likely someone would just claim him if he's cut. Why not the Jags?

 

[Stitch01]

Pretty confident that if the Pats stretch and borrow from next year's cap that its not going to be for a 30 year old running back with a lot of mileage and baggage.
 
40 points a game would mean 640 points and would beat the Broncos NFL scoring record by 34 points.  It would be 172 points more than the Pats scored last year.  I think expecting that adding a running back gets the team to that level of offense or creates that much improvement is more than a little bit optimistic.

 

[Super Nomario]

I think there's some merit to the idea that the Patriots should be transitioning into a late-career-Elway-with-Terrell-Davis kind of offense, but doing it with someone younger makes a lot more sense to me than going with Peterson. Thirty is ancient in running back years. Simpson, Dickerson, Tomlinson all had their last 1000-yard seasons at 29. I could see the Pats using a first or second on a bellcow back.

 

[Shelterdog]

I think there's some merit to the idea that the Patriots should be transitioning into a late-career-Elway-with-Terrell-Davis kind of offense, but doing it with someone younger makes a lot more sense to me than going with Peterson. Thirty is ancient in running back years. Simpson, Dickerson, Tomlinson all had their last 1000-yard seasons at 29. I could see the Pats using a first or second on a bellcow back.

I agree with all of this but I think the more likely move if they're moving to more of a running game would be to add a TE who can block reasonably well and catch a lot better than Hooman and also pick up a LG (maybe trade back the first round pick 10 picks and get Maxx Williams and Tomlinson in the second). 

 

[Super Nomario]

I agree with all of this but I think the more likely move if they're moving to more of a running game would be to add a TE who can block reasonably well and catch a lot better than Hooman and also pick up a LG (maybe trade back the first round pick 10 picks and get Maxx Williams and Tomlinson in the second). 

A guard for sure - I have to think one of those 96/97/101 picks will be a OL. Let the rookie, Wendell, Kline, Cannon, Devey, and maybe Fleming compete for the two OG spots.
 
I think Chandler is the TE you describe (he was only in the slot on ~20% of his passing routes last year). I'm also not sure how much another blocking TE really helps the running game; you get an extra blocker, but then the other team can put another front seven player in the box, so it's kind of a wash.

 

[bakahump]

 
but then the other team can put another front seven player in the box, so it's kind of a wash.

Well thats the beauty of the new "Hybrid" TEs.
 
If they do this you, run Play action and pick them apart passing to TEs running routes on LBs.
 
So yes on THOSE particular plays the running game doesnt help you....but
 
When they then bring in big Safetys or CBs to cover the receiving routes you blow them up with strong blocking TEs.
 
A strong RB could really make some hay in that offense.
 
Now whether Chandler is a "Hybrid" in a similar mode to Gronk, who can effectively block to make this work, is another question.
 
If you could find a Strong Runner...who could catch....and block on pass protection (Just that easy ....Not even sure who the "Template" would be....Leveon Bell Maybe....)  The offense would be damn near unstoppable schematically.
 
When the D covers with CBs....you run.
When the D "brings in a front seven player" you throw to the TEs (and WRs) with the Rb in on Pass Pro, with an occasion RB screen.

 

[Stitch01]

I also agree that adding another Gronk and the best running back in the league last year would upgrade the Pats offense.

 

[loshjott]

BB is in peak form at the coach's breakfast, grumbling into the mic, telling people to refer to statements, giving one sentence answers, etc. The best was when he was asked if Revis leaving would change his defensive scheme and he paused for a second and said "I don't know."

 
That sounds like an honest answer to a thoughtful football question. I'm surprised he didn't say something like "we'll do what's best for our football team."

 

[Super Nomario]

Now whether Chandler is a "Hybrid" in a similar mode to Gronk, who can effectively block to make this work, is another question.

Most of the time when people talk about "hybrid" TEs they're talking about WR / TE hybrids like Hernandez or Jimmy Graham who are WR / TE hybrids. That doesn't appear to be what you're describing, so you should be careful with terminology.
 
The obvious answer is that if you have a second Gronk, you would play him. Hell, if you had four Gronks you would play all of them and forget about having any WR. But in a world with one Gronk, the Pats are likely playing 2 WR (Edelman and LaFell), Gronk, and a RB. The question becomes: are you putting more pressure on the defense if the fifth skill player is a blocking TE who can catch a little (Chandler), or a pass-catching TE who can block a little (Wright), or a fullback (Develin), or a third WR (Amendola)? And I think the answer is: it depends on the defense and their personnel and schematic strengths and weaknesses.

 

[bakahump]

True enough SN.
 
Though I think one could argue that the "Norm" is now  the Graham, Gate, Gonzalez and Hernandez receiving types. That a lesser subset TE talent is the "Blocking TE".   And that the "Gronks" are more a combo or "hybrid" of the 2. "2 Way TE" could also be an apt description.
 
And certainly you would mix and match a 3WR/FB/Wright into the formations.   My only point is that it would all be keyed off the Gronk/Other "2 Way TE" offense that would be a devastating base.
 
Interesting that you consider Chandler a "Blocking TE" (who can catch a little.....more then Hooman...but not Gronk-esque).   I was under the impression that he was more of a "poor man Gates" who could block a little then a "rich mans Hooman" who could catch a little.

 

[Stitch01]

Can you give an example of a "hybrid" type TE in the Gronk mold that is not Gronk?

 

[bakahump]

As good as he is at both?  Not really.....I mean thats what makes him unique.
 
Definition of Hybrid
: something that is formed by combining two or more things
 
I think thats a valid description of Gronk.
 
Just because he is unique....basically one of a kind....doesnt mean he cant be labeled.  It also doesnt mean you cant have a lesser versions.

 

[amarshal2]

Can you give an example of a "hybrid" type TE in the Gronk mold that is not Gronk?

Witten?

Edit: this is a question. I've always been under the impression he can block but don't know.

 

[BrazilianSoxFan]

Gronk is not a hybrid TE, he is the über-TE.
 
TE is, by definition, a position that requires good blocking and receiving skills. A hybrid would be a blocking (TE/OL) or receiving TE (TE/WR).

 

[bakahump]

Gronk is not a hybrid TE, he is the über-TE.
 
TE is, by definition, a position that requires good blocking and receiving skills. A hybrid would be a blocking (TE/OL) or receiving TE (TE/WR).

Yet there are so few who do both.
 
Ok Symantics.

 

[Shelterdog]

A guard for sure - I have to think one of those 96/97/101 picks will be a OL. Let the rookie, Wendell, Kline, Cannon, Devey, and maybe Fleming compete for the two OG spots.
 
I think Chandler is the TE you describe (he was only in the slot on ~20% of his passing routes last year). I'm also not sure how much another blocking TE really helps the running game; you get an extra blocker, but then the other team can put another front seven player in the box, so it's kind of a wash.

 
Understood.  I personally view Chandler as a receiving TE and not a particularly good blocker--but he is big and certainly he and Maxx (who I love) would cannibalize each others' snaps to some extent. 

 

[Stitch01]

As good as he is at both?  Not really.....I mean thats what makes him unique.
 
Definition of Hybrid
: something that is formed by combining two or more things
 
I think thats a valid description of Gronk.
 
Just because he is unique....basically one of a kind....doesnt mean he cant be labeled.  It also doesnt mean you cant have a lesser versions.

Well yeah, that's kind of what Im asking for, what is an example of a lesser version of Gronk currently playing in the NFL?  Witten was mentioned upthread, but is there an example that's not a future Hall of Famer?

 

[pappymojo]

Well yeah, that's kind of what Im asking for, what is an example of a lesser version of Gronk currently playing in the NFL?  Witten was mentioned upthread, but is there an example that's not a future Hall of Famer?

Perhaps this is a question for the Gronk Appreciation Thread. How much less must a lesser version of Gronk be before that lesser version of Gronk is no longer considered a sure fire HOF player?

 

[RedOctober3829]

The next date to watch for is May 13th.  That is the first day teams can sign players without any draft pick compensation ramifications.  The Patriots did not add any WRs in the draft so I will expect them to sign a WR.  My target that I've predicted since he was cut is Reggie Wayne.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

The next date to watch for is May 13th.  That is the first day teams can sign players without any draft pick compensation ramifications.  The Patriots did not add any WRs in the draft so I will expect them to sign a WR.  My target that I've predicted since he was cut is Reggie Wayne.

 
That's "the corpse of Reggie Wayne" to you.

 

[Oppo]

Wayne would fit in well in the Holt, Ochocinco, Galloway role

 

[TheoShmeo]

Don't include Brock Holt with those misfits.  He can play any position and play it well.

 

[Shelterdog]

Wayne would fit in well in the Holt, Ochocinco, Galloway role

 
I think he'd fit the Adrian Wilson role.  Respected and loved by the team, an asset in the off-season and not quite making the roster due to a, uh, injury.