2015 Free Agency: The Waiver Wire Watch

[MainerInExile]

Old friend Stevie Johnson, who once said North Korea should blow up Foxboro.
 
My memory from his Bills days was good speed, could get open, questionable hands.

 

[jsinger121]

@JasonLaCanfora: DeAngelo Williams deal with PIT is 2yrs/$4M but is effectively 1yr/$2M

Good value

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Isn't Keenan Lewis a press coverage guy, sort of in the mold of Brandon Browner?  I hear his name often in terms of the second tier of guys out there -- sort of just behind guys like Talib and Grimes.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Keenan Lewis has a 2015 cap hit of $4.85 million, so the Pats can afford him. Those that know better, is he worth getting?
 
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/keenan-lewis/

For sure.
 

Old friend Stevie Johnson, who once said North Korea should blow up Foxboro.
 
My memory from his Bills days was good speed, could get open, questionable hands.

My understanding on Johnson is that he's kind of a freelancer. That's one of the things that makes him difficult to defend - he's had uncommon success against Revis - but it's hard to see it meshing with Brady and the New England O.

 

[Super Nomario]

Isn't Keenan Lewis a press coverage guy, sort of in the mold of Brandon Browner?  I hear his name often in terms of the second tier of guys out there -- sort of just behind guys like Talib and Grimes.

 
That's probably the right tier, but he's also played in a zone system in Pittsburgh with success. I don't think he's a one-trick pony.

 

[Corsi]

In random #Saints news, they are in the process of re-doing the much-discussed contract of CB Keenan Lewis to make him… happier

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/576527866378125312

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/576527866378125312

link to tweet

 

[koufax32]

For sure.
 

My understanding on Johnson is that he's kind of a freelancer. That's one of the things that makes him difficult to defend - he's had uncommon success against Revis - but it's hard to see it meshing with Brady and the New England O.

One man's freelancer could be another man's option route runner. I have no clue if that's his problem but I suppose it's a possibility. $.02.

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/NBCdianna/status/576535053934661632

https://twitter.com/NBCdianna/status/576535053934661632

link to tweet

 

[jsinger121]

Wow stunned they didn't make an offer.

 

[rodderick]

Yeah, I'm really curious to see what their plan is. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

@VikingsPR: The #Vikings have acquired WR Mike Wallace (@Wallace17_daKid) in a trade with the Miami Dolphins.

 

[Sportsbstn]

Unless they just felt he wanted too much money, thats disappointing. 

 

[jsinger121]

Unless they just felt he wanted too much money, thats disappointing. 

That's prolly what happened. He prolly wanted more than Vereen. Heisman trophy winners aren't cheap.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Wouldn't there have been preliminary conversations with an agent before a guy gets on an airplane about what his expectations are?  
 
it must be a misunderstanding about what his role would be or fit; or they left it that the Red Sox would put something together for him and didn't have an offer ready to go on the spot.
 
Or the report is wrong.

 

[theapportioner]

Wouldn't there have been preliminary conversations with an agent before a guy gets on an airplane about what his expectations are?  
 
it must be a misunderstanding about what his role would be or fit; or they left it that the Red Sox would put something together for him and didn't have an offer ready to go on the spot.
 
Or the report is wrong.

 
The Red Sox already have too many people in the outfield.

 

[theapportioner]

Unless they just felt he wanted too much money, thats disappointing. 

 
What was he expecting? He had a 4 year/16 million contract with Detroit and got cut.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

 
The Red Sox already have too many people in the outfield.

 
Good point.  I have the game on and got wires crossed.  Maybe the Bruins could use Bush?

 

[TSC]

 
Good point.  I have the game on and got wires crossed.  Maybe the Bruins could use Bush?

They've got Guerin Austen, they're covered.

 

[Ed Hillel]

That's prolly what happened. He prolly wanted more than Vereen. Heisman trophy winners aren't cheap.

Or the physical went poorly, or he was a douche.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Or the source was wrong

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Them talking contract parameters, Bush saying "interested, but I think I can do better dollar-wise with someone else" and team saying "go for it, and keep in touch if you change your mind because we want you" seems probable to me.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Yeah, I'm really curious to see what their plan is. 

I'm trying to be an optimist however the market is slowly drying up. You don't have a replacement for Revis Browner or Vereen in mind. Not to mention Wilfork. They must be really sold on the draft.

 

[mwonow]

Is Pierre Thomas still available? Might be they like him better...

 

[jsinger121]

@RapSheet: WR Kenny Britt is staying with the #Rams, source said. Its a 2-year deal worth up to almost $14M. He got 4.3M guaranteed. Wow.

 

[jsinger121]

Alex Marvez ‏@alexmarvez  45s46 seconds ago
Source tells @NFLonFOX that DE Michael Johnson will visit @Bengals before deciding whether to sign there, with @Vikings or TBD

 

[Dehere]

Is Pierre Thomas still available? Might be they like him better...

When NE played NO in 2013 Belichick was absolutely effusive in his praise for Thomas, which made me happy because he's my favorite Saint and I've always felt he was underappreciated in NO. Super-tough runner who consistently gets two more yards out of every touch than he has any right to get. Does everything professionally. Speaking as a non-Pats fan I would be thrilled to see Thomas come to NE and play for BB. Great fit.

 

[Ed Hillel]

New England: It’s not surprising to see Bill Belichick on a list like this. But what might be more surprising (or not, if you know what he’s capable of), is that Belichick is not only taking advantage of the system, he’s doing it one step ahead of his peers, even those listed above. As mentioned above, the Patriots used a team option to void Donte Stallworth’s contract in 2008 instead of terminating it, making him a qualifying UFA. This year, the Patriots used this mechanism on three high-profile players: Darrelle Revis, Vince Wilfork, and Brandon Browner. They retained the flexibility to possibly keep them, but if they decided to part ways they would also retain the possibility of comp picks. Revis and Browner already are in the lost column in favor for New England, and Wilfork should be there soon. Without them, the Patriots would only have a pair of 6ths projected. Instead, they have three 6ths and the second highest comp pick, a 3rd for Revis.

 
http://overthecap.com/2016-compensatory-draft-pick-update-3132015/
 
Obvious Belicheat reference aside, some good info.

 

[jsinger121]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet  23s24 seconds ago
Safety Ron Parker is headed back to the #Chiefs. He’ll sign a 5-year, $30M deal, source said

 

[Stitch01]

I'm trying to be an optimist however the market is slowly drying up. You don't have a replacement for Revis Browner or Vereen in mind. Not to mention Wilfork. They must be really sold on the draft.

More Dennard, Ryan, Butler, Siliga, Jones, Easley, and James White are all respective options.

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

 
http://overthecap.com/2016-compensatory-draft-pick-update-3132015/
 
Obvious Belicheat reference aside, some good info.

Thanks for that, Ed. Reminds me of the way the A's used to stockpile draft picks by offering arbitration to their FAs. Very Moneyball-esque.

And it's really interesting to see the teams that are effectively using the compensation system aside from the Pats: Seattle, SF, GB, Denver, Baltimore and Dallas--all playoff teams in the last few years. The one outlier is Cleveland, which the author notes is a newcomer to this approach.

The free agency bonanza of the last week got me wondering about the effectiveness of buying the big contract free agents. Started assembling some of this data from the last two years but didn't get too far. I'll get back to it though.

 

[Joshv02]

 
http://overthecap.com/2016-compensatory-draft-pick-update-3132015/
 
Obvious Belicheat reference aside, some good info.

Thanks
I wondered why they didn't trade Browner if someone else was willing to give him a better deal than he otherwise had, but I didn't realize he'd be subject to potential compensatory picks. I don't see him in the table. I assume that's an oversight? If so that puts him right around a fifth round pick or sixth, which is the most I'd expect someone to trade anyway.

 

[Corsi]

Reggie Bush and 49ers reached agreement, per sources. Bush back in California.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/576806068724084736

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/576806068724084736

link to tweet

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/Vikings/status/576805940181090304

https://twitter.com/Vikings/status/576805940181090304

link to tweet

 

[LondonSox]

This wasn't mentioned before but Holy shit this is the craziest contract so far that I've seen...

Nate Allen Raiders deal: 4-yr, $23M, $11.8M gtd, $4M bonus, salaries $2.9M, $4.9M, $5.85M, $4.85M, 2015 base full gtd

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2394596-nate-allen-to-raiders-latest-contract-details-comments-and-reaction

He got a one year 2 million deal last season and was awful. Benched at times. On the Eagles gasoline secondary. What the hell?

 

[Corsi]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet  8m8 minutes ago
CB Perrish Cox has just agreed to terms with the #Titans, per source

 

[Corsi]

Josina Anderson ‏@JosinaAnderson  16s16 seconds ago
Source: CB Perrish Cox to Titans 3yr, $15M.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

This wasn't mentioned before but Holy shit this is the craziest contract so far that I've seen...

Nate Allen Raiders deal: 4-yr, $23M, $11.8M gtd, $4M bonus, salaries $2.9M, $4.9M, $5.85M, $4.85M, 2015 base full gtd

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2394596-nate-allen-to-raiders-latest-contract-details-comments-and-reaction

He got a one year 2 million deal last season and was awful. Benched at times. On the Eagles gasoline secondary. What the hell?

And to make matters worse they took a cap hit to cut tyvon branch, a better player (albeit one with an injury history), to give Allen that contract.

Such a weird team because the Roy helu and Dan Williams contracts were smart, bargain signings

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/49ers/status/576869692188422144

 

[RedOctober3829]

So pretty close to starting Butler and Ryan on the outside, eh?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

So pretty close to starting Butler and Ryan on the outside, eh?

 
Yup.  Tramon Williams and Rashean Mathis looking like best pair out there.
 
PFF likes Mathis, for whatever that is worth---had him as 13th best CB last year.  Detroit wants him back and it's been reported he wants to go back.  And he's 34.

 

[E5 Yaz]

If it weren't March 14, I'd be concerned.

 

[Corsi]

https://twitter.com/cpriceNFL/status/576879227166949376

https://twitter.com/cpriceNFL/status/576879227166949376

link to tweet

 

[Gunfighter 09]

And to make matters worse they took a cap hit to cut tyvon branch, a better player (albeit one with an injury history), to give Allen that contract.

Such a weird team because the Roy helu and Dan Williams contracts were smart, bargain signings

 
They tried to get Allen last year and were unsuccessful. Considering the Ron Parker contract, and all of the ridiculous corner contracts, it is only annoying, rather than stupefying. Adding pieces in the secondary is very expensive this year. To illustrate how much worse the Parker contract appears to be (we don't have the guaranteed $ yet)  PFF had Allen as the #28 Safety at +3.9. Parker was the #73 safety at -5.7 and got $7M more and for longer. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Delete

 

[Devizier]

 
 
So pretty close to starting Butler and Ryan on the outside, eh? 

 

 
Considering the Ron Parker contract, and all of the ridiculous corner contracts, it is only annoying, rather than stupefying. Adding pieces in the secondary is very expensive this year. 

 
These two facts are related. Seems like everyone in the NFL wants to roll out their own version of the LOB this year, which is great, save for the fact that many teams are paying huge premiums on average talent. This is like when linebackers got overpriced after a bunch of teams tried to emulate the Patriots' 3-4 schemes a decade ago.
 
I think (hope) that Belichick is one step ahead of the curve on this one.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Yes, as much as it worries me to have some combo of Ryan-Butler-Arrington-draft pick manning the corners, even in a heavy zone scheme, the fact that several comparable (or at least proven mediocre) veteran CBs are getting fairly hefty contracts makes me feel a little peaceful about it, or at least fatalistic. It is what it is.

I'm not going to feel better - because the Patriots aren't going to BE substantially better - if we join the fray and spend unwise dollars on similar, or even marginally better, talent at the position.

Edit: left out a modifier.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

 

https://twitter.com/cpriceNFL/status/576879227166949376
link to tweet
 


 
We're going to love Edelman at CB

 

[bankshot1]

 
 
These two facts are related. Seems like everyone in the NFL wants to roll out their own version of the LOB this year, which is great, save for the fact that many teams are paying huge premiums on average talent. This is like when linebackers got overpriced after a bunch of teams tried to emulate the Patriots' 3-4 schemes a decade ago.
 
I think (hope) that Belichick is one step ahead of the curve on this one.

BB is like a value investor, he has his methodology and sticks to it. It almost will guarantee that he will not get the best player because he won't chase the market, so he has to be patient (or lucky), and have the capital to buy when the price gets attractive. On the sell-side, we've seen him time and time again, sell when the market price exceeds his value model. So Sherman and Revis and Peterson drive the CB market high as buyers rush to emulate LOB, so he sells into it, and looks for hidden value in those pockets overlooked. and it seems that mobile OLB, edge rushers is where he's looking
 
Its not a guarantee that he'll always win, or beat the market every year, but it seems a pretty good bet he'll field competitive teams with a chance to win.

 

[ivanvamp]

It sure doesn't hurt that he has #12, who can cover a lot of mistakes.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

 
They tried to get Allen last year and were unsuccessful. Considering the Ron Parker contract, and all of the ridiculous corner contracts, it is only annoying, rather than stupefying. Adding pieces in the secondary is very expensive this year. To illustrate how much worse the Parker contract appears to be (we don't have the guaranteed $ yet)  PFF had Allen as the #28 Safety at +3.9. Parker was the #73 safety at -5.7 and got $7M more and for longer. 

Couldn't they have gotten dmcourt for around 10 million per year instead of Allen for 6 million? God knows they have the money.

Speaking of, don't they have to spend another 25 million or so to reach the cap floor? How will they do it at this point? Seems like the big money players are gone.