He's moving out of small sample size territory though. He's at 93 PAs and is OPS+ing 35. That's ghastly.
The trends against RHP are alarming. He has major problems with breaking stuff away and that’s how he’s being pitched. Needs to adjust.He's moving out of small sample size territory though. He's at 93 PAs and is OPS+ing 35. That's ghastly.
He also spent extra time in the minors on rehab in order to work on stuff like this. And yet he's struggling.The trends against RHP are alarming. He has major problems with breaking stuff away and that’s how he’s being pitched. Needs to adjust.
There's probably a difference worth noting for a rookie breaking into the majors for the first time and a veteran. Still, your point is noted.That's still pretty small. Through 96 PA on May first Casas was batting .128.
Wasn't there chatter that he took an extra week after he was physically ready to stay down there to work on stuff? Primarily his throwing but everything in general.He also didn't spend "extra" time in the minors on rehab. he came back to the MLB club two days before his rehab time expired.
He struggling, and it is hard and frustrating to watch. I hope he has a fully healthy offseason and can prepare well for next year. I still think he is a net positive because his defense is so good, but the low and away breaking stuff from RHP's is just killing him.
He's been bad, no doubt about it, but the peripherals arent all bad. K rate is through the roof, BB % is way down, and that largely appears to be an issue with him being unable to lay off soft stuff off the plate. He needs to make an adjustment there.That's still pretty small. Through 96 PA on May first Casas was batting .128.
He took the maximum allowed 20 days.Wasn't there chatter that he took an extra week after he was physically ready to stay down there to work on stuff? Primarily his throwing but everything in general.
That's what the plan was, but he actually ended up joining Boston on Tuesday the 8th, forgoing his last two days. Not that two days is a huge difference, but he definitely did not take "extra" time.He took the maximum allowed 20 days.
Thanks. No he didn't. 20 days max for position players and 30 days max for pitchers.That's what the plan was, but he actually ended up joining Boston on Tuesday the 8th, forgoing his last two days. Not that two days is a huge difference, but he definitely did not take "extra" time.
Right, as far as I can tell he only spent 16 days of his rehab assignment (first day was July 21st, last was August 6th, could be 18 if you count his last as his MLB debut day, which was the 8th of August). I apologize if I am being confusing, I honestly can't tell if you are agreeing with me or not, LOL.Thanks. No he didn't. 20 days max for position players and 30 days max for pitchers.
I'm agreeing with you!Right, as far as I can tell he only spent 16 days of his rehab assignment (first day was July 21st, last was August 6th, could be 18 if you count his last as his MLB debut day, which was the 8th of August). I apologize if I am being confusing, I honestly can't tell if you are agreeing with me or not, LOL.
(It's entirely possible that I am out of my mind, as well, and if I am just tell me so).
No, you don't understand! You have to agree with himI'm agreeing with you!
Yes, that would be a very, very valuable player.If Story can get his OPS+ close to league average, I’ll take his elite defense at shortstop in 2024.
With great D at SS, he can be further from league average than one might think. Anthony Volpe has an OPS+ of 91 and bWAR of 3.6.If Story can get his OPS+ close to league average, I’ll take his elite defense at shortstop in 2024.
This sums up my thoughts on the matter perfectly.I can’t get worked up about Story. He was hurt all year, came back a little early because the team needed him, has played stellar defense and has had moments where he looks great at the dish. The rest feels like handwringing to me.
There's plenty of reason to think he can be league average or better, too. A career wrc+ of 108, and several seasons north of 115. If he can just cut down on the freaking strikeouts, he'll be golden. Back in Colorado, he was regularly around 25%, and now he's suddenly a guy who's striking out 35% of the time?With great D at SS, he can be further from league average than one might think. Anthony Volpe has an OPS+ of 91 and bWAR of 3.6.
This is what makes me think it is a timing issue more than anything else.There's plenty of reason to think he can be league average or better, too. A career wrc+ of 108, and several seasons north of 115. If he can just cut down on the freaking strikeouts, he'll be golden. Back in Colorado, he was regularly around 25%, and now he's suddenly a guy who's striking out 35% of the time?
Now, I was interested... is the narrative we've been telling ourselves -- that he's not laying off stuff out of the zone -- true?
View attachment 70384
Looks like in the last 3 years his O-Swing% has climbed from a low of 30% all the way to 37% last year and 36% this year. Making thins worse is the O-Contact% is way down.
That's some of it - I see him swinging through fastballs in the zone sometimes - but I think it's more likely a selectiveness or a pitch ID issue. His swinging strike percentage is up, but he's making just as much contact on stuff in the zone.This is what makes me think it is a timing issue more than anything else.
I agree with this, I think it's a pitch ID issue. Just from what I've seen he's not recognizing pitches soon enough and committing too early to swinging at sliders or curves that end up low and away.I think it's more likely a selectiveness or a pitch ID issue.
I opt for living with the strikeouts, there's plenty of folks Cora can put at the other 3 infield positions to make errors.C’mon now. We are not winning the World Series this year. Let him have as many AB’s as he wants. Defense is fantastic. He’s an exceptional hitter. Let him finish with some high quality AB’s.
As unlikely as the Sox are to get into the playoffs.... I actually think they're built to be a playoff type of team. Annoyingly they probably won't get the chance to show that.C’mon now. We are not winning the World Series this year. Let him have as many AB’s as he wants. Defense is fantastic. He’s an exceptional hitter. Let him finish with some high quality AB’s.
Yep, they are a sprinter as opposed to a marathoner. 162 games exposes them; they would be a tough playoff out. But the 162 was too much.As unlikely as the Sox are to get into the playoffs.... I actually think they're built to be a playoff type of team. Annoyingly they probably won't get the chance to show that.
Isn't it pretty to think so?As unlikely as the Sox are to get into the playoffs.... I actually think they're built to be a playoff type of team. Annoyingly they probably won't get the chance to show that.
Just look at how they play against good teams. The problem this year is the went in to funks against the Royals, Cards and Pirates. Decent lineup that can get hot and a really good bullpen can’t put you on 6-8 game run.Isn't it pretty to think so?
Are there teams that end up within a few games of .500 that are incredibly consistent? You can probably say that about every team around them in the standings.Just look at how they play against good teams. The problem this year is the went in to funks against the Royals, Cards and Pirates. Decent lineup that can get hot and a really good bullpen can’t put you on 6-8 game run.
But they are inconsistent… like a teams that teases and just misses.
5-14 against the Ms, Jays, Astros, Dodgers and Rays in the last ~ month when it mattered. I'm a congenital optimist and was reeled in too, but they are what their record says they are.Just look at how they play against good teams.
Almost every team is streaky, no matter where they are in the standings. We had just this discussion when it comes to the unexpected number of lopsided playoff series. Playoff teams should always be fairly evenly matched, but there are a whole lot more 3-0, 4-0, and 4-1 series than straight math would say there should be.Are there teams that end up within a few games of .500 that are incredibly consistent? You can probably say that about every team around them in the standings.
I agree. But when you are .500 (or close to it) there are more losses and less wins to distribute over the year, so you'll probably notice more clustering. Good or bad teams are going to have more of one or the other, so the clustering is most likely going to go down. Now, it would be fun to look at distribution to see what teams were the most consistent or inconsistent, and how that played out across the standings, but that would take actual work and I find it easier to just generalize and talk out of my ass.Almost every team is streaky, no matter where they are in the standings. We had just this discussion when it comes to the unexpected number of lopsided playoff series. Playoff teams should always be fairly evenly matched, but there are a whole lot more 3-0, 4-0, and 4-1 series than straight math would say there should be.
They also score the 8th most runs and give up the 10th most. It's pretty obvious how they got to be a .500 team.The Sox are exactly at their pythag of 72-68.
36-33 at home, 36-35 on the road.
17-19 in 1 run games, 4-5 in extras.
Look at their monthly splits:
0-1
15-13
13-13
13-15
15-8
13-15
3-3
There's zero indication that the Sox are either better or worse than their record indicates. They are in every possible way just around a .500 team.
And the defense isn't the reason why the Sox pitching isn't great:By some of the older-school metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating, these Red Sox aren’t one of the top 50 worst defensive teams since 2000. But Outs Above Average, which hasn’t been around as long, has them as the third-worst since 2015, behind only the 2022 Nationals and the 2017 Mets, so there is a case that this is one of the worst defensive teams of recent times.
The Sox would get waxed in a playoff series.Maybe it’s surprising, then, to see that the Sox have only the 10th-biggest gap between their ERA and their Fielding Independent Pitching numbers, or that there are three worse teams at allowing balls in play to become hits. Maybe there’s something to the fact that some of the younger arms have struggled — thinking of Nick Pivetta, Cutter Crawford and Tanner Houck, they’ve all been good at times but also have had issues. Still, Brayan Bello has been better than his strikeout numbers suggest he should be, so it’s not quite pervasive, and just sticking an opener in front of Pivetta seemed to do a lot of good (that doesn’t obviously have a relationship to defense), so I’m not sure Boston has broken any models with this approach yet.
Probably. But as @Max Power noted, weird things happen in short series. 3, 5 or even 7 games isn't a lot of samples.If you read Eno Sarris' piece about the Sox in today's Athletic, specifically their defense, it's not pretty:
And the defense isn't the reason why the Sox pitching isn't great:
The Sox would get waxed in a playoff series.
I won't ever argue against "sometimes things happen in sports" because that thinking resulted in the one of the best Red Sox results in forever, but if we're going by the numbers; I don't think it looks good.Probably. But as @Max Power noted, weird things happen in short series. 3, 5 or even 7 games isn't a lot of samples.
I think you'd expect a "true" .500 team to win fewer games against elite opponents, and more games against the worst teams in the league.There's zero indication that the Sox are either better or worse than their record indicates. They are in every possible way just around a .500 team.
Fangraphs has them at ~4% chance of making the playoffs. So not literally zero, but so low it's not really worth thinking about. That feels about right.As frustrated as I am with this season, I have to disagree JMOH. I think this team would advance in the playoffs.
But there is no chance this team makes the playoffs. Literally zero. I don't want to hear this "go 17-7" talk. It's. Not. Happening.
Therein lies the rub.
Maybe it’s the trauma of The Kiké Hernandez Experience speaking, but he really has looked absolutely brilliant out there.He has very impressive DRS numbers in a SSS, already up to +5 where the season-long SS leaders are just +16.
https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
We never had that guy. File under: Hitting Coaches, Boston.I would love to have the Trevor Story who strikes out 25% of the time back.
The first sentence is certainly true. I'm completely agnostic about the second half of your assertion. I would be stunned if Story wasn't aware that he's swinging at too much garbage, watching film, looking at pitch charts - but it's also not outside the realm of possibilities.We never had that guy. File under: Hitting Coaches, Boston.