If he goes back to what he was his last year in Colorado - averagish offensive production and very good defense -- then that's a 4 win player at SS. I wouldn't complain about that.
The Story remains the same? The progress back from injury
- Thread starter Smiling Joe Hesketh
- Start date
Neither would I. Here's to hoping he figures it out, 4 more years on the contract.
Granted, he's also outside of Colorado for half his games, and there may be a league adjustment.
But if you look at his numbers from last year, but it looks like he's trying to hit the ball harder at the cost of dropping singles and getting more strikeouts. His barrel% goes up as his average goes down, and he's a less effective hitter for it.
I think Dombrowski is still PE1 for having given the injured Sale that extension after they'd already pocketed the title. I'm hopeful that the owners have learned their lesson about not rewarding guys like Sale with 9 figure deals just because they have a world series on their resume. (And to make this explicit to prevent the Picayune People from complaining, 6'6" 95 lb pitchers are always an injury waiting to happen, as Sale had demonstrated in 2018. There was zero reason to extend that guy at 5/145.)
Reaction to the extension here: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/rosenthal-sale-extension-5-years-145-million.26631/
LOL, closer discussion on the first page of the thread before the ink was dry
Even earlier was the "gee, I hope this doesn't keep us from signing Mookie" post.
Great SP will still get paid even with injury concerns. The upside of health is a difference maker.
I didn't get that same sense, no. But the script was very much the same (Sox offered only 4/70 then traded him in the middle of the season when he didn't accept it). Lester signed a 6/155 deal with the Cubs that offseason. Sox offered 6/135 that offseason for him to return, but speculation at the time was that the 4/70 offer soured him on their seriousness and he decided to go to Chicago.
2014 and 15 were pretty grim years. IIRC there was some breast-beating. '16 and '17 saw us washed out of the post-season early, but at least we got there. 2018 was glorious. I suspect that cures all.
I'm going to ask a couple of questions pertaining to the strikeouts because I'm sure someone here will be able to answer. Story is really looking bad with the swings and misses at pitches that are way low, particularly low and away. Does he have a history of going after these pitches? Also, I haven't seen anything about his bat speed. Is it possible that he's just not getting around on some pitches like he used to?
You can dig into the zones section on savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trevor-story-596115?stats=statcast-r-zones-mlb
The short story is yes; he's got more whiffs and Ks out of the zone even compared to last year, but it's also still a very small sample where he hasn't been hitting well, so I'm not sure it holds much weight.
The short story is yes; he's got more whiffs and Ks out of the zone even compared to last year, but it's also still a very small sample where he hasn't been hitting well, so I'm not sure it holds much weight.
He’s seeing a lot more breaking balls in the last three years- which corresponds with when he stopped being able to hit righties.
My feeling was that Lester would have signed a reasonable extension, but Mookie would only have signed something that would have made him go "Wow". I honestly think they boned the Lester talks worse than they did the Mookie talks, TBH
Not that he could have managed that either. But I did love the "the Red Sox are going to get surplus value!" optimism. Even fWAR has him at under 3 WAR for the extension. WARP has him at 2.3, which means that Boston has paid about $50.4 million per.
It’s funny to see people patting themselves on the back for this, as if people could have predicted him having an entire season done in by a fractured rib and then a broken finger off a line drive (and then the bike fall and wrist fracture‘ and then even this year once he started looking like the Sale of old again, he suffers another pretty flukey injury with the scapula stress reaction.
The only thing somewhat predictable was Tommy John and thats just in a general sense as 1/4th or all pitchers get it at least once at one point.
I'm not at all convinced that the stress reaction this year was fluky. There was plenty of reason to expect his body to break down due to age and his somewhat unusual delivery.
I like the sound of this-- at least Story seems committed to doing whatever he can to help the team win:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/09/21/sports/trevor-story-sees-better-things-ahead-with-red-sox-after-he-can-flip-page-last-two-years/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/09/21/sports/trevor-story-sees-better-things-ahead-with-red-sox-after-he-can-flip-page-last-two-years/
Hopefully he will have a full normal spring training next year for the first time with Boston. It sure couldn't hurt.
He got up over the Mendoza line to end the season. I'm cautiously optimistic he'll be a decent hitter next year.
So he what, apparently put all his skill points into Defense and Charisma but none into Hitting and Stealth?
He had 168 PAs this year after coming back from the injury and OPS+ 52. That's very very discouraging. He could turn into Ozzie Smith defensively but the offense has crashed and burned.
He had 168 PAs this year after coming back from the injury and OPS+ 52. That's very very discouraging. He could turn into Ozzie Smith defensively but the offense has crashed and burned.
Every player can have a crappy year. And really what we're talking about is a crappy half season in which he was essentially in spring training for the first month competing against players in midseason form. You might be right, but I think it's fairer to wait and see how he plays next season before pronouncing him incapable of contributing on offense to this team's success for the remainder of his contract.
Had it been 30 PAs or 60 I might agree with having patience.
He had 168. That's a ton. He did nothing with them. That's extremely concerning.
He had 168. That's a ton. He did nothing with them. That's extremely concerning.
In general I don't enjoy agreeing with SJH but yeah... it's pretty concerning how terrible at the plate he looked. If the choice is a great defense, no offense SS or a terrible defense, great offense SS I'm not sure what to pick. But Story was signed to provide at least above average offense with occasional power. He hasn't shown that in basically one full year so far.
Sooner or later everyone ends up agreeing with me lol. You're the latest.
You've got it exactly right, he was supposed to be a good bat when he was signed. Purely defensive players don't get anywhere near the salary he's getting. I understand that value is value no matter what but if we can dismiss 168 terrible ABs as SSS then surely we can also dismiss 314 defensive innings as SSS as well. Who is to say that the good defense he's shown is the real baseline going forward?
He was "above average" in 2022. Barely. (102 OPS+) His 434 SLG% didn;t sound very good, but it was well above average among SS and 2bmen. But until he does even that again, it's absolutely fair to wonder if he will.
If nothing else, this SSS of defense at SS is consistent with his past performance there. This isn't Enmanuel Valdez having one month of Lou Whitaker-like defense at 2B.
Concerning, but not enough to draw any conclusions.
I remember an eventual Hall of Famer who had a horrendous start to a season, after suffering a significant injury the year before. Through the first two months, 204 PA, he was slashing .184/.284/.287 with one home run, striking out about 23% of the time (career rate of about 17%). He eventually turned it around. Helped win another World Series even.
Story’s slugging since 2018:
567
554
519
471
434
316
OPS against RHP since 2018
852
911
808
735
702
550
567
554
519
471
434
316
OPS against RHP since 2018
852
911
808
735
702
550
It's not even a half-season. I'm laughing @Smiling Joe Hesketh saying he's lost patience because it's 160 PA. No offense, but of course you have!
160 plate appearances is less than a third of a season. He's looked awful, and it is concerning. But it's no reason to write him off, if anyone is planning on doing that.
I would acknowledge that they are concerning, look at his peripherals (which are also concerning: bad BB rate, high K rate, HH% is fine but not good enough), and then look at the guys larger body of work.
Story obviously has to cut back on the K's. If he can do that, I expect him to improve. I don't expect him to go back to what he was his first few years in Colorado anymore, I don't think that's reasonable. As @Petagine in a Bottle points out, the struggles against RHP are not new. I'd also note he was consistently a BABIP guy of around .325-.350 while he was in Colorado, and that's taken a dive in the last four years.
But if he can go back to what he was his last year in Colorado and his first half-season with us - a shortstop who gives us an wrc+ of 100 and excellent defense - he would still be a 4 win player (as he was his last year in Colorado), and I'll take that, since we didn't have a single 4 win position player on this year's squad.
It's also possible he makes adjustments and starts hitting as he did in Colorado. I wouldn't bank on it, but it's not impossible, and that would make him a 6 or 7 win player. One can drea,. As @Red(s)HawksFan also pointed out, it's not strange for a guy who's been an elite hitter to have a couple of crappy seasons in the middle of his career, especially if he's been interrupted by injury.
As for the defense, I think even you know this is a silly argument to make. I would look at the excellent defense he's played this year and say well, that's right in line with how he's played his entire career! That's a good sign, that he's playing exactly as he has his entire career.
In 2018, his SLG% away from Coors was 450. That was about 10% better than the NL average that year.
In 2022, his overall SLG% was 434, also about 10% better than the AL average of 2Bmen.
What might be concerning is that in 2022, it was 530 at Fenway and 344 on the road. And this year it was an OK 425 at home and 224 on the road.
Wow I couldn't disagree more. He had a good 314 innings at shortstop after having moved back there from injury and playing mostly 2B in 2022. It's perfectly reasonable to think that 314 defensive innings played is also subject to SSS issues, unless you think that post-injury he's morphed into Ozzie Smith, which he hasn't.
I basically don't want this to turn into another Chris Sale saga, where we wait and wait and wait for signs of past glory to re-appear. Story is getting paid an enormous amount of money to be an impact player, and while there are mutliple ways of contributing, so far he's come up far, far short of being that player.
He didn't "morph" into Ozzie Smith. He "morphed" into Trevor Story 2016-2021. Imagine that.
He's always been a really good shortstop. The only reason he was moved off the position was the arm injury which was fixed. Defensive stats are messy and a function of opportunity, so it's reasonable for a really good shortstop who happens to get enough chances to make plays to put up Ozzie-like numbers for 2 months. I wouldn't expect that over a full season, but I would expect him to continue to be a positive defensive contributor.
That Trevor Story was pre-UCL. Expecting him to suddenly get back to that form or better on a permanent basis going forward strikes me as hasty. I guess we'll see.
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So, despite even the eye tests (forget the stats for a moment) showing lots of positive signs over two months that he's well recovered from the UCL operation, should we brace for him to potentially "morph" into the second coming of Kike Hernandez defensively? I don't think anyone is arguing he's going to sustain the unreal statistical level going forward. That is small sample size noise. But it is perfectly reasonable to expect he can continue to be an above average shortstop going forward. At least for the next couple years.
I guess my point is that I don't expect him to do anything. He's been injured, he hasn't played, he's clearly rusty at the plate etc. The guy has basically lost 2 years of baseball due to assorted injuries and will be going into 2024 with a ton of unknowns.
He put up great defensive numbers after coming back this year. That is good! But to expect that next year? No, I'm not there. He hasn't been back long enough or healthy long enough to pencil him in as an excellent defensive SS just yet. And to be fair the same goes for his offense, I have been down on him from pretty much the moment he got here but I don't expect a 52 OPS+ again from him. I am just saying I'm very concerned about his total lack of production in the same way folks here are happy about his defensive production.
He is being paid like a key contributor to the team's success, so if he cannot return to form as some sort of impact player then the team will be very adversely affected in 2024.
It's a stretch from Trea Turner this year. The point being it's a SSS. & while it's fine to have some concerns, assuming it's Story's new normal is pretty silly.
In injury cases like this, I'm not sure crunching stats is always the best way to predict things. (Not that it's invalid or anything.)
I think the bottom line with Story is the only thing he's doing wrong is chasing/not making contact. It's a big thing, but consider the other side of the ledger. His character/demeanor is excellent; if he has any ego to speak of, it's pointed in exactly the right direction. His physical ability looks very good as evidenced by his fielding, base-running, and raw power (when he connects.) Baseball is mysterious sometimes, but he shows all the skills/abilities he had before surgery.
So, I'm reasonably optimistic he has the physical ability to return to being an above average hitter.
I know I'm going to sound like I'm beating a drum here but: hitting coaches. Story strikes me as exactly the kind of guy who'd try to do what's best for the team. If the coaches say, "Don't worry about the Ks - we're going for barrels," he's probably going to try to do that. Cora clearly has a broad top-down idea for what he's like to see happen, e.g., using the wall more. I don't think that's wrong in the abstract, but it's my main reservation re: Story. (And to a lesser extent Yoshida.) Story's most valuable when being Trevor Story - I have less than perfect faith that the coaching goals and hitting philosophies align with that.
The point is that much better hitters than Trevor Story can have even crappier stretches of baseball, even without the built in timing excuses of being out for so long & missing Spring Training. That Turner stretch was from April 20th to June 4th.
& that 168 PAs is a very small sample size.
That a much better player than story had a bad stretch and rebounded shouldn't be a surprise. Assuming a far worse player than Turner is equally as likely to rebound strikes me as something of a difficult bet, because he wasn't near as good in the first place. But we'll see, I guess.
Trevor Story now has 137 games in a Red Sox uniform and due to injuries and overall ineffectiveness he has put up an OPS+ of 86. He is closer to Pablo Sandoval in Boston (161 games, 71 OPS+) than Trea Turner in Philly (111). He's far more likely to rebound than Sandoval, but the point is that he has a very long way to go to become a semi-valuable player again.