He's moving out of small sample size territory though. He's at 93 PAs and is OPS+ing 35. That's ghastly.
The Story remains the same? The progress back from injury
- Thread starter Smiling Joe Hesketh
- Start date
The trends against RHP are alarming. He has major problems with breaking stuff away and that’s how he’s being pitched. Needs to adjust.
He also spent extra time in the minors on rehab in order to work on stuff like this. And yet he's struggling.
He'll have the next few weeks to see if he can figure things out. This offseason will be a big one. If there is any hint that he can't regain his timing and hitting eye, and the Sox don't get an insurance policy at short, 2024 is going to be a mess.
There's probably a difference worth noting for a rookie breaking into the majors for the first time and a veteran. Still, your point is noted.
I'm just saying, it's getting a bit late to be early.
He also didn't spend "extra" time in the minors on rehab. he came back to the MLB club two days before his rehab time expired.
He struggling, and it is hard and frustrating to watch. I hope he has a fully healthy offseason and can prepare well for next year. I still think he is a net positive because his defense is so good, but the low and away breaking stuff from RHP's is just killing him.
He struggling, and it is hard and frustrating to watch. I hope he has a fully healthy offseason and can prepare well for next year. I still think he is a net positive because his defense is so good, but the low and away breaking stuff from RHP's is just killing him.
Wasn't there chatter that he took an extra week after he was physically ready to stay down there to work on stuff? Primarily his throwing but everything in general.
He's been bad, no doubt about it, but the peripherals arent all bad. K rate is through the roof, BB % is way down, and that largely appears to be an issue with him being unable to lay off soft stuff off the plate. He needs to make an adjustment there.
On the other hand, anyone who's been actually keeping up with the games knows a lot of line drives have gone for outs. His hard hit % is 47 - which is very good, exactly the same as Casas, fwiw - and his BABIP is only .278 despite at least two balls that should have been outs falling in (that I remember).
So he appears due for some correction just based on luck.
That's what the plan was, but he actually ended up joining Boston on Tuesday the 8th, forgoing his last two days. Not that two days is a huge difference, but he definitely did not take "extra" time.
I can’t get worked up about Story. He was hurt all year, came back a little early because the team needed him, has played stellar defense and has had moments where he looks great at the dish. The rest feels like handwringing to me.
Thanks. No he didn't. 20 days max for position players and 30 days max for pitchers.
Right, as far as I can tell he only spent 16 days of his rehab assignment (first day was July 21st, last was August 6th, could be 18 if you count his last as his MLB debut day, which was the 8th of August). I apologize if I am being confusing, I honestly can't tell if you are agreeing with me or not, LOL.
(It's entirely possible that I am out of my mind, as well, and if I am just tell me so).
If Story can get his OPS+ close to league average, I’ll take his elite defense at shortstop in 2024.
With great D at SS, he can be further from league average than one might think. Anthony Volpe has an OPS+ of 91 and bWAR of 3.6.
There's plenty of reason to think he can be league average or better, too. A career wrc+ of 108, and several seasons north of 115. If he can just cut down on the freaking strikeouts, he'll be golden. Back in Colorado, he was regularly around 25%, and now he's suddenly a guy who's striking out 35% of the time?
Now, I was interested... is the narrative we've been telling ourselves -- that he's not laying off stuff out of the zone -- true?
Looks like in the last 3 years his O-Swing% has climbed from a low of 30% all the way to 37% last year and 36% this year. Making thins worse is the O-Contact% is way down.
That's some of it - I see him swinging through fastballs in the zone sometimes - but I think it's more likely a selectiveness or a pitch ID issue. His swinging strike percentage is up, but he's making just as much contact on stuff in the zone.
I think he's been swinging at a lot of non-competitive pitches, specifically sliders and curveballs in the dirt or even in the other batter's box. He has no chance of making contact on those, no matter how good his timing is. I just took a look through his at-bats on game day. There's some strikes out looking and some on balls in the zone but a lot of his recent strikeouts look like this:
Or like this:
One way of thinking about this: if it was just timing wouldn't his Z-Contact %'s be down?
I agree with this, I think it's a pitch ID issue. Just from what I've seen he's not recognizing pitches soon enough and committing too early to swinging at sliders or curves that end up low and away.
I opt for living with the strikeouts, there's plenty of folks Cora can put at the other 3 infield positions to make errors.
As unlikely as the Sox are to get into the playoffs.... I actually think they're built to be a playoff type of team. Annoyingly they probably won't get the chance to show that.
Yep, they are a sprinter as opposed to a marathoner. 162 games exposes them; they would be a tough playoff out. But the 162 was too much.
Just look at how they play against good teams. The problem this year is the went in to funks against the Royals, Cards and Pirates. Decent lineup that can get hot and a really good bullpen can’t put you on 6-8 game run.
But they are inconsistent… like a teams that teases and just misses.
Are there teams that end up within a few games of .500 that are incredibly consistent? You can probably say that about every team around them in the standings.
5-14 against the Ms, Jays, Astros, Dodgers and Rays in the last ~ month when it mattered. I'm a congenital optimist and was reeled in too, but they are what their record says they are.
Almost every team is streaky, no matter where they are in the standings. We had just this discussion when it comes to the unexpected number of lopsided playoff series. Playoff teams should always be fairly evenly matched, but there are a whole lot more 3-0, 4-0, and 4-1 series than straight math would say there should be.
I agree. But when you are .500 (or close to it) there are more losses and less wins to distribute over the year, so you'll probably notice more clustering. Good or bad teams are going to have more of one or the other, so the clustering is most likely going to go down. Now, it would be fun to look at distribution to see what teams were the most consistent or inconsistent, and how that played out across the standings, but that would take actual work and I find it easier to just generalize and talk out of my ass.
The Sox are exactly at their pythag of 72-68.
36-33 at home, 36-35 on the road.
17-19 in 1 run games, 4-5 in extras.
Look at their monthly splits:
0-1
15-13
13-13
13-15
15-8
13-15
3-3
There's zero indication that the Sox are either better or worse than their record indicates. They are in every possible way just around a .500 team.
36-33 at home, 36-35 on the road.
17-19 in 1 run games, 4-5 in extras.
Look at their monthly splits:
0-1
15-13
13-13
13-15
15-8
13-15
3-3
There's zero indication that the Sox are either better or worse than their record indicates. They are in every possible way just around a .500 team.
They also score the 8th most runs and give up the 10th most. It's pretty obvious how they got to be a .500 team.
If you read Eno Sarris' piece about the Sox in today's Athletic, specifically their defense, it's not pretty:
And the defense isn't the reason why the Sox pitching isn't great:
The Sox would get waxed in a playoff series.
Probably. But as @Max Power noted, weird things happen in short series. 3, 5 or even 7 games isn't a lot of samples.
I won't ever argue against "sometimes things happen in sports" because that thinking resulted in the one of the best Red Sox results in forever, but if we're going by the numbers; I don't think it looks good.
As frustrated as I am with this season, I have to disagree JMOH. I think this team would advance in the playoffs.
But there is no chance this team makes the playoffs. Literally zero. I don't want to hear this "go 17-7" talk. It's. Not. Happening.
Therein lies the rub.
But there is no chance this team makes the playoffs. Literally zero. I don't want to hear this "go 17-7" talk. It's. Not. Happening.
Therein lies the rub.
I think you'd expect a "true" .500 team to win fewer games against elite opponents, and more games against the worst teams in the league.
A more even spread (winning against good teams and losing against bad teams) tends to (IMO) indicate untapped potential or the like.
And I think that corresponds to the subjective impression of the season. They'll go on offensive tears and slumps. The pitching will vary from everyone firing on all cylinders (mostly) to spectacular implosions.
So if they got into the post season, they may not go deep. . .but it would be an enjoyable roll of the dice.
Fangraphs has them at ~4% chance of making the playoffs. So not literally zero, but so low it's not really worth thinking about. That feels about right.
He has very impressive DRS numbers in a SSS, already up to +5 where the season-long SS leaders are just +16.
https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Maybe it’s the trauma of The Kiké Hernandez Experience speaking, but he really has looked absolutely brilliant out there.
133 PA at this point, OPS+ of 37.
I'm glad his fielding has been good but his inability to get going offensively after the long layoff is extremely concerning. 181/218/299.
I'm glad his fielding has been good but his inability to get going offensively after the long layoff is extremely concerning. 181/218/299.
For what it's worth, Hard Hit% is in line with career norms at 42%. That's a pretty good clip. BABIP is at .266. He seems, anecdotally, to have had a lot of hard hit balls go for outs the last week or so.
I think he's pretty close to getting his timing back. Wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit of a tear here at the end of the season.
For reference, Casas is at 46% HH%, Devers is at 54%, Duran was at 45% this season. Mookie Betts, for his career, is at 42%. So Story is hitting the ball hard plenty.
The most concerning thing, to me, is the spike in strikeouts and the drop in BB%. The could be he's pressing at the plate, it could be a pitch ID Issue. But it's a Dalbecian, Duvallish K rate.
I would love to have the Trevor Story who strikes out 25% of the time back.
I think he's pretty close to getting his timing back. Wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit of a tear here at the end of the season.
For reference, Casas is at 46% HH%, Devers is at 54%, Duran was at 45% this season. Mookie Betts, for his career, is at 42%. So Story is hitting the ball hard plenty.
The most concerning thing, to me, is the spike in strikeouts and the drop in BB%. The could be he's pressing at the plate, it could be a pitch ID Issue. But it's a Dalbecian, Duvallish K rate.
I would love to have the Trevor Story who strikes out 25% of the time back.
The first sentence is certainly true. I'm completely agnostic about the second half of your assertion. I would be stunned if Story wasn't aware that he's swinging at too much garbage, watching film, looking at pitch charts - but it's also not outside the realm of possibilities.
Will Story now take the place of Bloom as PE1?
Can’t be Sale as he’s gone in a year and won a WS.
Can’t be Sale as he’s gone in a year and won a WS.