The Story remains the same? The progress back from injury
- Thread starter Smiling Joe Hesketh
- Start date
The argument isn't that he'll bounce back to being Trea Turner, it's that it's quite possible he can bounce back to being Trevor Story.
Eh, I mean it depends on how you define "semi-valuable". BRef had him as a 0.8 WAR player this season. Over the course of a full season, that prorates to 3 WAR. Despite being inarguably awful on offense (52 OPS+). In that 137 game sample you cite, he's a 3.3 bWAR player.
Yeah if he had a 3 WAR season I'd be pleased with that. We'll have to see if the offense comes back, people seem to be assuming this is his current level of defensive play which I suspect is going to normalize a little bit.
But he was signed to be a good bat first and foremost, he needs to get that figured out.
It's quite possible his defense could regress a bit. It's right in line with his '19 rate stats, but defensive stats are noisy. & yeah, he needs to be better to be worth his contract than he has to be to be semi-valuable, because he's being paid like a valuable player.
I don't think we disagree greatly - you just take an extremely pessimistic view on things lol
I might as well make my last post on the subject positive...
Story ended the season going 9-28 with a homer, 2 walks, 1 HBP & 8 strikeouts, for a slash of .321/.355/.429, .784 OPS (tiny sample size, still not amazing...but better).
Wait, so we can expect his current SSS of very good defense to regress toward the mean, but we can't expect his current SSS of very bad offense to regress towards the mean?
Also, I disagree that he was signed to be a good bat first and foremost, I believe he was signed to be a good all around player, and his defense was a really big part of that, maybe the key part of it.
No, people are saying "well if he can rebound offensively or even to being a .250 hitter that's really valuable" and I am pointing out his defense is also subject to SSS issues and may well normalize with more innings. SSS works both ways.
BRef has him at 1 defensive WAR in 43 games this year; if that was a full season that would be roughly 3.2 defensive WAR which would be by far the highest of his career (previous high 2.6 as a pre-arm injury 26 year old in 2019). I don't think that's a reasonable expectation for him defensively going forward.
I'm not even sure what we're arguing about.
Yes, his performance is concerning.
No, it doesn't mean that 2024 is a lost cause.
Yes, we need him to be a lot better.
No, his 168 PA isn't necessarily enough to predict doom and gloom.
And regardless, there are no other options for SS at this time (at least until Mayer is ready) anyway.
Yes, his performance is concerning.
No, it doesn't mean that 2024 is a lost cause.
Yes, we need him to be a lot better.
No, his 168 PA isn't necessarily enough to predict doom and gloom.
And regardless, there are no other options for SS at this time (at least until Mayer is ready) anyway.
Genuine question here, but wouldn't a 2.5 bWAR season in 94 games (because of a HBP) go a long way toward satisfying this request?
Edit: Or seen another way, he's put up 3.3 bWAR in a "full season's worth" of 133 games, 564 PAs for Boston.
I get that part of your point is the injury concern. I agree it's been unideal, but I still think he rebounds to a 4-win player next year.
Sure. And I actually wanted him to stay at 2B, he was so good there.
Since then he's had UCL surgery. It's a long road back from that. He's clearly not there yet.
This is where I stand. Concerned, higher confidence in him than Sale, but replacing him with a vet isn't really an option, so go Sox.
BTV has Story as -35.8 mil, which would mean he's worth about 57.4 over 4 years. I suspect if he were a FA he'd get a one or two year deal with a higher AAV. Cody Bellinger had been at least as big a disaster in the two years leading up to his FA and he got 17.5 mil for a year.
It would also help to be clear on what "normalize" means in terms of his level of play. Normalize should mean a regression (or progression) to what he's typically been over his career. If his 2023 offense rebounds nearer to his "normal" and his 2023 defense regresses nearer to his "normal", that's a very good ballplayer. He was a 5+ WAR (b-ref) player from 2018-2020 (extrapolating his 2020 to a full season of games). He doesn't have to get to that level to be really valuable. A 3-4 WAR player is a strong contributor. The only Sox player that did that this year is Devers (3.6).
Not to me it isn't. Coming off elbow surgery, no Spring training, thrown into a pressure-packed situation. Never really got rolling. I'd bet you 50 Jimmy Fund bucks that he'll OPS+ 100 or better next year. He has the track record. I'll qualify that to say he needs to play at least 100 games for me to be confident in that prediction.
SJH I'll up that ante.. I'll bet $50 to the Jimmy Fund that he has an OPS+ greater than 100 and an additional $50 that he plays in greater than 120 games in 2024... if you're so confident he can't be counted on, let's go and you take the under on both of those.