The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
I think we already have a couple of those in Chang and Reyes. I'm all for using depth to strengthen the team, but I'm not sure that this does that.
Paulino is a pretty upside prospect... but he hasn't been
142 wRC+ at home
74 wRC+ on road
Verdugo may be more valuable to the Red Sox than anyone else...
142 wRC+ at home
74 wRC+ on road
I don't disagree with that (which is why I said "late" 2024 for Mayer and Yorke.)
To muddy the waters a bit Story apparently has an opt-out after 2025, which the club can override by picking up an option year. So I think that adds a teeny bit of value to any 2026 2B candidates - if such a thing can even be said to exist so far out.
Overall though the dynamic is the same:
in 2023, they really need a 2023 50 game passable 2B to pair with Story at SS. (And we have that.)
In 2024, it's Story and an internal option or quasi-fungible Chang/Reyes type enabling us to: 1 try out Rafaela/Valdez, and maybe later in the season Yorke/Mayer.
In 2025, it's Story + 1 of those 4, likely Mayer, with another or a FA as a backup (Yorke having the most upside).
In 2026 onward, either Mayer and Story or Mayer and someone else at 2B.
Maybe you grab a 2B to contribute this year and next, reserving Yorke and Mayer for part time roles in 2024 and full time roles in 2025. (If there was a kind of lucky-chance Pomeranz-deal of a very good 2B for Valdez, where you're only getting this season and next before FA, of course you do that.)
He's basically free, right? OPS by month: 716, 590, 555, 399.
Thx for 2021. Godspeed.
View: https://twitter.com/THEREAL_DV/status/1683916633151258626?s=20
Chaim, get this over the finish line
Chaim, get this over the finish line
And a piece of Alex Cora's heart goes with him.
Hopefully for Alex's sake, a fatty and independently problematic piece.
This might be one of the oddest couplets I’ve read here, and there have been some odd ones.
Does Kike have a heart problem at the end of this story?
I've no idea what his value might be, but Bobby D has been putting together a nice season down in WOOstah. His AAA performance and remaining team control might be attractive to a team with a need. I get the thought that he's the type of player we might want to hang onto, considering the forementioned and the fact that he carries a few gloves, but Casas is looking less and less like he's going to require a platoon mate. Maybe Dalbec can return something of use as a stand alone deal or as part of a package.
Paywalled so I can't read it, but Shank wants them to sell. Anticipating that they won't do that and trying to set up his "I told you so" column if they fall short?
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/27/sports/red-sox-are-hottest-team-baseball-they-still-should-be-sellers-deadline/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/27/sports/red-sox-are-hottest-team-baseball-they-still-should-be-sellers-deadline/
Selling right now would be beyond idiotic; baseball is a marathon, things are falling into place for them, specifically Wong, Duran and Casas, they are getting three pitchers back soon and more importantly, their starting shortstop.
What a terrible message that would send to the fans by selling at this stage.
And some pieces and make a run; wouldn't be the first time a team got hot and got to/won a World Series.
Such a negative attitude.
What a terrible message that would send to the fans by selling at this stage.
And some pieces and make a run; wouldn't be the first time a team got hot and got to/won a World Series.
Such a negative attitude.
I think the answer is smart adding. Yes, you have Story, Sale, Whitlock etc coming back. So I'm down not adding a super star per se. But make a smart addition. Maybe a solid mid rotation starter. Short term upgrade at 2nd base. I don't know. Whatever else makes sense. Show you think this team is good enough to buy for the sake of the team's confidence as much as for the actual functional addition.
Man, I truly sports-hate the CHB. I hope he's not this miserable in real life and that it's a schtick for his job.
They should try to buy long term MLB pieces to add to the core (like Bloom said) AND that will help this year first. If they are unable to do that, then they should make *some* short term adds from the bargain basement of the Hansel Robles v2021 or Jake Peavy v2014 and hope they catch lightning in a bottle (ie, make the other side of the Peavy for Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar deal where Peavy went from an 84 ERA+ here to a 159 ERA+ for SF).
If they're not able to do either of those things, at that point then yes, they should take advantage of an extreme seller's market and sell. But again, that is only if both smart long term buys AND cheap short term buys are shut off as avenues for them.
They’ve been the best team in the AL for a month playing shorthanded. About to get healthy.
Yeah, let’s sell.
Yeah, let’s sell.
The mentality of "you should only buy if you're a World Series favorite" is so stupid. I do believe they shouldn't go for rentals and should focus on guys that could be a building block to contend in the near future, but the team is playing well, they've made up a ton of ground in the division and the Wild Card race, they have important pieces coming back, why wave the white flag now?
Positive analysis about the Red Sox is something that has never existed from CHB. If the Sox were losing, he would be calling for Bloom's head. The Sox are winning against good teams and he wants them to sell because he refuses to believe. When you look at the 2013 team, no one thought they were winning the WS going into the season, but everything clicked. The team seems to have really come together, so you have to think they have a chance. Don't empty the farm system, but if Chaim can approve the team I hope he does.
Pretty curious what the Tigers do with E-Rod. He'd be cheaper to acquire than Montgomery and, now healthy, better. But I wouldn't be surprised if some teams found his deal a little risky. Given their history, would the Sox be more inclined to accept that risk than other teams?
BTV says Yorke for Rodriguez and McKinstry is dead even. Would that make sense? McKinstry is Brock Holt 2.0, fits our LHH 2B need perfectly and is a FA in 2028. Eddie’s a non-QO-able FA unless he opts in, and would then cost 3/$49M.
BTV says Yorke for Rodriguez and McKinstry is dead even. Would that make sense? McKinstry is Brock Holt 2.0, fits our LHH 2B need perfectly and is a FA in 2028. Eddie’s a non-QO-able FA unless he opts in, and would then cost 3/$49M.
I'm not sure why they'd be more inclined to accept the risk because they know him better than other teams. The evidence we have is that they chose not to sign him to a five year deal two winters ago, which is how he ended up in Detroit. I very much doubt their concerns were with his 2022-2023 production so what makes them more inclined now to want in on his 2024-2026 production(assuming he opts in)?
Too bad there isn't a way on BTV to know ERod's value as a pure rental (meaning he opts out this winter) versus a guy with three years of control. I'd love to know whether or not him 100% opting out would change his trade value.
That deal is too risky for me to move Yorke (or similar) in terms of prospects. Simply due to the opt out that exists at the end of this year.
I'm totally on board (and advocate) Bloom choosing a prospect or two from the ones we have in the middle infield; centerfield / could move to corner variety to land a pitcher like Rodriguez but only with term left. But having no control and the potential of losing Yorke for 2 months is a too great a cost, at least as far as I'm concerned.
McKinstry on his own would be interesting though, and I cannot imagine he'd cost a ton, though Det may have no incentive to move him.
Rentals are okay too. Does anyone remember who Kyle Schwarber was acquired for in 2021? Cliff Floyd didn’t result in a playoff spot in 2002 but nothing was lost in Song and Kim. Tony Graffanino was worth 1.3 bWAR in 200 PA in 2005. Eric Bedard was worth a shot in 2011 given the year he was having.
Looking through deadline transactions over the last couple decades I just don’t see many instances where we gave up something of great future value for a couple months of a rental player. Maybe losing Hunter Strickland for Adam LaRoche in 2009? David Murphy had a decent career after being traded for Gagne in 2007?
Buy or sell, just make smart deals in the context of both the current year’s team and future years.
Looking through deadline transactions over the last couple decades I just don’t see many instances where we gave up something of great future value for a couple months of a rental player. Maybe losing Hunter Strickland for Adam LaRoche in 2009? David Murphy had a decent career after being traded for Gagne in 2007?
Buy or sell, just make smart deals in the context of both the current year’s team and future years.
FWIW @Ramon AC I didn't mean "no rentals" at all.
I just meant not to give up anyone nearly as highly rated as Yorke for a rental. Give up Yorke for someone with multiple years left that fills a hole - yes. For 2 months of Rodriguez, I'd pass on that, personally.
For instance, DeJong and Montgomery (both rentals) have been brought up, and StL apparently wants pitching - so I'd move something like Bastardo, Kavadas and Mata for them (or ERod) but not Yorke, or similar.
I just meant not to give up anyone nearly as highly rated as Yorke for a rental. Give up Yorke for someone with multiple years left that fills a hole - yes. For 2 months of Rodriguez, I'd pass on that, personally.
For instance, DeJong and Montgomery (both rentals) have been brought up, and StL apparently wants pitching - so I'd move something like Bastardo, Kavadas and Mata for them (or ERod) but not Yorke, or similar.
Pomeranz wasn’t a rental, he came with years of control, and was pretty awesome in 2017…won 17 games with a 137 ERA+.
My point is that we may worry too much about the risk of disastrous ”rental” deals, there are very few examples of that in the Henry era, if any.
My point is that we may worry too much about the risk of disastrous ”rental” deals, there are very few examples of that in the Henry era, if any.
What’s the point of adding a guy like a DeJong? Assuming Story replaces Reyes, adding another middle IF would require losing Arroyo or Chang.
I’m not even convinced they need to add a SP at this point.
I’m not even convinced they need to add a SP at this point.
Paul DeJong is having a better offensive year this year than Arroyo, has been better over the course of his career (97 OPS+ for DeJong; 87 for Arroyo) and is a better defensive player... (at least assuming dWAR can be somewhat believed, over the course of 7 MLB seasons DeJong has a 7.4 dWAR and over the same 7 seasons Arroyo's is 1.2).
There is nothing wrong with losing Christian Arroyo, plus, he's probably going to do that himself with injury sooner than later anyway.
I'm not saying to give up stupid amounts for DeJong, but if he can be had for a pittance (which he should be) then he'd be a fine add in terms of someone you should be able to give up nothing for to make your team a little bit better. If StLouis insists on WGonzalez for DeJong of course they should be hung up on, but if they're reasonable about what he's worth, he'd be a decent add.
DeJong is fine, but he’s making $9.5M this year, and the Sox probably wouldn’t want him at $12.5M next year. So, to acquire him would require giving up something, paying the buyout, and losing a player who they could potentially use next year (Chang, Arroyo). Seems like not a great idea, to me. Of course, if he can be subsidized and had straight up for Arroyo and a low level prospect, I could see it.
AAV is $4.3m, although I'm not sure how those calculations work now.
Yeah, we're on the same page. I think that is roughly what DeJong would cost on his own. Arroyo and a prospect that only @JM3 knows and is somewhere on his list near the guy the Sox gave to SF. Next season Chang should be kept over Arroyo anyway. Arroyo would probably cost like $3.5M (cost $2m this year and has been worth a - $1.2M, per FG). Chang probably more like $1.25M and he's at least good defensively.
I have no idea how to do overlays @bosockboy, but you're right that all DeJong's power (such that it is) comes to the pull side. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/paul-dejong-657557?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
I feel that Chang and Arroyo should only be considered as backups. While we've been pleasantly surprised with Arroyo's health and Chang's defense (especially compared to KeeKay), they really should only be remembered as backup replacement level competence type guys. If there is a starting 2b or SS option that is an upgrade offensively and defensively we should strongly consider it and keep those two as backups if/when needed. And keeping deJong next year on a $12.5M isn't the worst thing that could happen especially since it could be the exact duration needed to get Meyer up in Sept 2025
We saw how going cheap at MI worked out for us this year, amirite?
We saw how going cheap at MI worked out for us this year, amirite?
DeJong is yet another right-handed hitter; any middle infielder the Sox acquire should be a plausible platoon partner for Chang (or Arroyo, or Reyes, or Turner) (or Story for that matter). They're not going to pay a steep deadline price for a total stud given the up-the-middle talent knocking on the door in the high minors, but offense from the MI positions remains a glaring weakness that can be upgraded both considerably and cheaply simply by having better matchups.
I think this left-handed middle IF that Bloom spoke of needs to be able to play SS too, on the premise that he would platoon with Arroyo and take Chang's spot on the roster as the sole SS back up to Story. The list of potentially available lefty hitters who can play SS is not long. One is Brice Turang in Milwaukee, not long ago highly regarded prospect who has had rough year. I wonder if Dalbec plus a minor league arm would be of any interest to the Brewers.
Donovan would be a heck of a get. .381 OBP
and perfect long term 2B and 2 hole hitter behind Duran.
and perfect long term 2B and 2 hole hitter behind Duran.
Hope one of these pieces would come with Montgomery. That's the glaring need, eh? SP. Those are some nice looking young players, though seems odd given the MLB glut in the middle infield and lots of promise there making its way up from the farm. Unless somebody like Yorke is part of a larger deal that includes pitching.
Yeah, I’d love either one. I’d be fine with Edman but one of those other two would be incredible.
Montgomery+Donovan would probably cost Yorke/Drohan/Murphy…need to poke around on BTV. Might be light.
I imagine letting Yorke go would be more palatable if Donovan/Gorman were coming back considering the presence of Story and Mayer.
Yeah, sign me up for that. I would imagine that it'd take quite a bit to pry Donovan away from the Cards, but this is exactly the kind of player that would be worth trading significant prospects for.
BTV has Donovan's median value at 39.1. Montgomery at 7.4. Yorke (19) + Drohan (3.9) + Murphy (2.1) doesn't get you close if you think BTV is in the area.
More generally, I'm not sure why STL is trading a 26 year old player with 4.5 years of control left that has produced at a 4 WAR+ pace thus far as a major leaguer.
You'd have to think a trade like that starts with something like Bleis + Yorke and then some kind of lottery ticket or two.
Edman seems like a more realistic target.
Donovan is (or should be) a Duran- or Bello-level asset to a first approximation. Pre-arb, four-ish WAR/162. That's a player a rebuilding team would generally aim to keep.
Yorke is passable as a centerpiece in a trade like that, but you'd need to offer considerably better than Drohan and Murphy to fill out the package. They're going to want a position player prospect and two prospects who more clearly project to be MLB SP, so maybe something like Yorke, Wikelman Gonzalez and their choice of Walter or Drohan gets at least close.
Yorke is passable as a centerpiece in a trade like that, but you'd need to offer considerably better than Drohan and Murphy to fill out the package. They're going to want a position player prospect and two prospects who more clearly project to be MLB SP, so maybe something like Yorke, Wikelman Gonzalez and their choice of Walter or Drohan gets at least close.