The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

moondog80

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FWIW, I think @BigSoxFan is bang on in this post about what it'd take to get Soto, or at least what the Pads' initial ask would be: Casas, Bello, Bleis, and Anthony.
That's considerably more than they gave up last year to get him, no? Casas and Bello are both more proven than anything the Nats got, and you're giving up two high level prospects in addition?

I wouldn't give up Casas and Bello alone. 5+ years of control x2, much of which will be very cheap, vs 1+ year of expensive control. No way.
 
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dhappy42

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I'd do that trade and then make sure to escort Duran into the San Diego clubhouse before Preller realizes that he's effectively turned Mackenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, and James Woods into Jarren Duran.

FWIW, I think @BigSoxFan is bang on in this post about what it'd take to get Soto, or at least what the Pads' initial ask would be: Casas, Bello, Bleis, and Anthony.
Not suggesting a trade, but BTV has Casas, Bello, and Soto at almost the same value.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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That's considerably more than they gave up last year to get him, no? Casas and Bello are both more proven than anything the Nats got, and you're giving up two high level prospects in addition?

I wouldn't give up Casas and Bello alone.
I wouldn't either, I just think it's what the Padres would ask for. And I don’t think they’d settle for much less, they’d probably just keep him instead.
 

BigSoxFan

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That's considerably more than they gave up last year to get him, no? Casas and Bello are both more proven than anything the Nats got, and you're giving up two high level prospects in addition?

I wouldn't give up Casas and Bello alone. 5+ years of control x2, much of which will be very cheap, vs 1+ year of expensive control. No way.
Yeah, just to clarify, I had Anthony/Bleis as an either or and not both. But I do think Casas would have to headline it with some combination of Anthony/Bleis/Yorke/Drohan, etc. following.
 

Yaz4Ever

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From the White Sox perspective, why would they want to package them, when they might get more from selling them off in separate deals?
 

JM3

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From the White Sox perspective, why would they want to package them, when they might get more from selling them off in separate deals?
Presumably they only would if it's better than the package for each individually.

I personally wouldn't do the trade, but thought it was creative. Not sure how sustainable mashing with a 5% walk rate & 29.2% strikeout rate is... but the flip side to that is if he's already mashing & could clean that up a little...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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From the White Sox perspective, why would they want to package them, when they might get more from selling them off in separate deals?
I think this is correct.

I saw that, too. Isn’t it an overpay on our part or am I overvaluing our guys? I think it’s just me overvaluing Rafaela and Bleis. Now, if we follow his plan and keep something from the Paxton and/or Verdugo deals, I’d be more interested. I’d love Roberts’ bat, but can he handle RF in Fenway?
That proposed idea absolutely is an overpay. And an overpay is probably what it will take to get the White Sox to bite. As Rosenthal points out, listening to offers is not the same as seeking to trade the players away. A GM wouldn't be doing his due diligence to not listen and see what the best offers might be. That doesn't mean he has to take any of them.

I think reporters, pundits, and fans alike get too carried away with any sliver of a chance that something might happen. GMs, good ones at least, aren't going to be swayed off a plan unless they're overwhelmed by an offer.
 

BigSoxFan

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I love Robert and would love to have him. But, he gets hurt a lot. I just don't know if you can give up that kind of package for a guy you can't count on playing.
He’s had such a weird career too. Seems like he changes who he is as a hitter from year to year. He started out as a guy who struck out a lot and then he really cut down on it but the slugging suffered. And now, he seems to be selling out for power so the homers are back but the K’s are up too.
 

grimshaw

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I saw that, too. Isn’t it an overpay on our part or am I overvaluing our guys? I think it’s just me overvaluing Rafaela and Bleis. Now, if we follow his plan and keep something from the Paxton and/or Verdugo deals, I’d be more interested. I’d love Roberts’ bat, but can he handle RF in Fenway?
You're overvaluing our guys. Luis Robert is one of the best contracts in baseball (#14 via Fangraphs). The Sox don't even have anyone in the top 50, so I don't think they could pull off Robert alone \ without giving up a bunch of blue chippers. Bleis has had a lost season, and Yorke's stock is falling. If I'm the White Sox, I want a sure thing.

FWIW - according to baseball trade values.
Robert - 99.1
Cease - 51.1

Bleis - 28.4
Yorke - 19
Verdugo - 15.3
Rafaela - 13.1
Paxton - 6
Gonzalez - 5.3

Of course if they took on a lot of salary that would also make a huge difference.
 

dhappy42

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You're overvaluing our guys. Luis Robert is one of the best contracts in baseball (#14 via Fangraphs). The Sox don't even have anyone in the top 50, so I don't think they could pull off Robert alone \ without giving up a bunch of blue chippers. Bleis has had a lost season, and Yorke's stock is falling. If I'm the White Sox, I want a sure thing.

FWIW - according to baseball trade values.
Robert - 99.1
Cease - 51.1

Bleis - 28.4
Yorke - 19
Verdugo - 15.3
Rafaela - 13.1
Paxton - 6
Gonzalez - 5.3

Of course if they took on a lot of salary that would also make a huge difference.
I think BTV undervalues Paxton in this market, but not by so much as to make this a reasonable trade.

Edit: The White Sox trading for Paxton makes no sense unless they were to flip him for more prospects.
 

grimshaw

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I think BTV undervalues Paxton in this market, but not by so much as to make this a reasonable trade.

Edit: The White Sox trading for Paxton makes no sense unless they were to flip him for more prospects.
Ya, meant to amend that to whatever returns they'd get for Paxton and Verdugo which for the former I'd hope would be worth more.
 

simplicio

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Cease feels a lot like a paying for past performance type of guy. He just hasn't been as good this year, outside of an excellent June.
 

SouthernBoSox

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TRADE DEADLINE DAY******

Prediction: I think you will most like see smaller depth moves for arms. Remember, there are no waiver trades after today so they will, at minimum, load up on some option guys.

A feeling: pitching seems incredibly expensive and I’m not so sure the most interesting trade wouldn’t be for a second baseman. When you look at the 2024 team, second base will have to be addressed, I’m wondering if the path to helping this team the last two month is completely revamping the middle (story + acquisition)
 

BigSoxFan

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TRADE DEADLINE DAY******

Prediction: I think you will most like see smaller depth moves for arms. Remember, there are no waiver trades after today so they will, at minimum, load up on some option guys.

A feeling: pitching seems incredibly expensive and I’m not so sure the most interesting trade wouldn’t be for a second baseman. When you look at the 2024 team, second base will have to be addressed, I’m wondering if the path to helping this team the last two month is completely revamping the middle (story + acquisition)
Agreed. I think there will be a trade or two but that it’ll primarily be a move with 2024 and beyond in mind. Would be surprised if any of the top prospects get moved.

As much as fans hate the thinking, Story and Sale are probably the 2 highest impact guys coming in August.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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TRADE DEADLINE DAY******

Prediction: I think you will most like see smaller depth moves for arms. Remember, there are no waiver trades after today so they will, at minimum, load up on some option guys.

A feeling: pitching seems incredibly expensive and I’m not so sure the most interesting trade wouldn’t be for a second baseman. When you look at the 2024 team, second base will have to be addressed, I’m wondering if the path to helping this team the last two month is completely revamping the middle (story + acquisition)
I think anything they do to address second base, whether it's today or during the off-season, will be a short term thing. With the number of middle infield prospects in the pipeline (10 in Sox Prospects top 25), I very much doubt Bloom is going to over-invest in the spot. This is why it's possible that they just go another year with the committee approach (Arroyo, Chang, Reyes, Turner, Valdez, trade/free agent of similar level/caliber, etc) until one of the blue chippers arrives.
 

grimshaw

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Is there a tldr for those of us for whom xitter is a broken garbage site where threads don't load?
Not untouchable for controllable pitching - Yorke, Rafaela
Higher minors rule 5 guys: Drohan, Fernandez, Wiki, Gambrell, Liu, & Zeferjahn.
Another handful of rule 5 guys not yet in AA.
40 man clearance - Hamilton, Valdez, Abreu, Dalbec
Crowded areas in the middle - Hamilton and Valdez (again), Jordan, Meidroth, Bonaci, and Paulino.
Lower minors pitching - Bastardo, Blalock, Rogers, Monegro, Paez, Elmer-Cruz
 

JM3

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Is there a tldr for those of us for whom xitter is a broken garbage site where threads don't load?
It just breaks down prospects who could potentially be traded into various groups.

High end guys: Raffy/Yorke

40-man clearance: Hamilton, Valdez, Abreu, Dalbec (I'd add Walter)

Guys who will be Rule 5 Eligible: Drohan, Fernandez, Wikelman, Gambrell, Liu, Zeferjahn

More Rule 5 Eligible: Bonaci, Castro, Paulino, Bastardo, Blalock

Mid-to-high minors IF: Valdez, Hamilton, Jordan, Meidroth, Bonaci, Paulino

Low Minors arms: Bastardo, Blalock, Rogers, Monegro, Paez, Rodriguez-Cruz

Nothing particularly useful. Then there were links to the rosters:

https://www.soxprospects.com/org.htm

& their rankings (which could use some work):

https://soxprospects.com/
 

4 6 3 DP

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I really feel for Bloom here. You've got a lineup that has one spot in it that you can upgrade realistically which is 2B (assuming Story has been promised SS upon return), other than that you'd probably need to deal Verdugo for a better RF bat, otherwise there isn't really an ability to really impact the lineup, and a team that could go 20-10 over its next 30 or 10-20 over the next 30 and no one would be surprised with either. Obviously an ace starter would be a massive upgrade, but unlikely to happen. I'm with most here, this feels like they just tinker on the edges, maybe get some depth, and ride the team they have.

I would say that if someone offered a monster package for Paxton, you do it and take the bullets from the talking heads for selling. Getting a great return for him would be the best use of that asset, even if it slightly lowers their chances to make the playoffs. Just too much risk with him of injury/decline at any moment, and if you can get cost controlled assets you do it in a heartbeat. That's my only real wish, but returns might be mediocre and if so, you hold and try to win the thing.
 

TFisNEXT

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I really feel for Bloom here. You've got a lineup that has one spot in it that you can upgrade realistically which is 2B (assuming Story has been promised SS upon return), other than that you'd probably need to deal Verdugo for a better RF bat, otherwise there isn't really an ability to really impact the lineup, and a team that could go 20-10 over its next 30 or 10-20 over the next 30 and no one would be surprised with either. Obviously an ace starter would be a massive upgrade, but unlikely to happen. I'm with most here, this feels like they just tinker on the edges, maybe get some depth, and ride the team they have.

I would say that if someone offered a monster package for Paxton, you do it and take the bullets from the talking heads for selling. Getting a great return for him would be the best use of that asset, even if it slightly lowers their chances to make the playoffs. Just too much risk with him of injury/decline at any moment, and if you can get cost controlled assets you do it in a heartbeat. That's my only real wish, but returns might be mediocre and if so, you hold and try to win the thing.
Returns for Paxton are very likely to be mediocre. He’s a pure rental. I fully expect Bloom to mostly hold and maybe make a marginal upgrade somewhere like 2B or back of rotation and hope the return of Sale/Story can get this team on a heater in August.
 

kazuneko

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I think anything they do to address second base, whether it's today or during the off-season, will be a short term thing. With the number of middle infield prospects in the pipeline (10 in Sox Prospects top 25), I very much doubt Bloom is going to over-invest in the spot. This is why it's possible that they just go another year with the committee approach (Arroyo, Chang, Reyes, Turner, Valdez, trade/free agent of similar level/caliber, etc) until one of the blue chippers arrives.
[QUOTE="SouthernBoSox, post: 5671294, member: 8435"
A feeling: pitching seems incredibly expensive and I’m not so sure the most interesting trade wouldn’t be for a second baseman. When you look at the 2024 team, second base will have to be addressed, I’m wondering if the path to helping this team the last two month is completely revamping the middle (story + acquisition)
[/QUOTE]
The Red Sox are very good at hitting, okay at pitching and putrid at defense. Rafaela is expected to be ready as soon as the beginning of next year. Why can’t that be pushed forward a month or two? He’s hitting pretty well in AAA and he’s an elite defender. Playing Rafaela at SS, Story at 2b and shifting Turner to 1b upgrades the defense considerably without costing the Sox anything. Really, if the Sox are going to shoot for the playoffs the easiest move in they could make is to stop DHing the team’s best defender at 1b and DH their defensively challenged 1b. Whether at 1b or 3b (Devers is having a horrible year with the glove too) Turner needs to play the field as much as possible. It’s a team with three DHs in the lineup (Casas, Devers and Yoshida) and yet the player they actually DH can actually defend at at least one of those positions.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The next week feels pretty pivotal, two more in Seattle and then the series against the Jays. Need to split these games, at the least. Team seems to be looking for some help, hopefully they get it and take advantage, worry about a lack of moves and a letdown leading to a bad series against Toronto.
 

sezwho

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The Red Sox are very good at hitting, okay at pitching and putrid at defense. Rafaela is expected to be ready as soon as the beginning of next year. Why can’t that be pushed forward a month or two? He’s hitting pretty well in AAA and he’s an elite defender. Playing Rafaela at SS, Story at 2b and shifting Turner to 1b upgrades the defense considerably without costing the Sox anything. Really, if the Sox are going to shoot for the playoffs the easiest move in they could make is to stop DHing the team’s best defender at 1b and DH their defensively challenged 1b. Whether at 1b or 3b (Devers is having a horrible year with the glove too) Turner needs to play the field as much as possible. It’s a team with three DHs in the lineup (Casas, Devers and Yoshida) and yet the player they actually DH can actually defend at at least one of those positions.
Makes sense on paper somewhat ( though Devers not having a great year he’s not a butcher and Casas needs reps to develop) but concerned that (over)playing Turner in the field might wear down his bat.
 

Auger34

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Returns for Paxton are very likely to be mediocre. He’s a pure rental. I fully expect Bloom to mostly hold and maybe make a marginal upgrade somewhere like 2B or back of rotation and hope the return of Sale/Story can get this team on a heater in August.
Apparently the Phillies are very interested in both Paxton and Duvall...I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox could get quite a haul from DD for those two
 

chawson

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Rumors out there that Pete Alonso is being made available. That would be somebody I definitely would explore the cost on. Casas for Alonso?
Hard no from me on this.

Returns for Paxton are very likely to be mediocre. He’s a pure rental. I fully expect Bloom to mostly hold and maybe make a marginal upgrade somewhere like 2B or back of rotation and hope the return of Sale/Story can get this team on a heater in August.
I don't know if this is true! Takes two to tango of course, but the Giolito and Scherzer were rentals and their returns were pretty hefty, and Paxton theoretically has more suitors because of his cost.
TRADE DEADLINE DAY******

Prediction: I think you will most like see smaller depth moves for arms. Remember, there are no waiver trades after today so they will, at minimum, load up on some option guys.

A feeling: pitching seems incredibly expensive and I’m not so sure the most interesting trade wouldn’t be for a second baseman. When you look at the 2024 team, second base will have to be addressed, I’m wondering if the path to helping this team the last two month is completely revamping the middle (story + acquisition)
I kind of think something bigger will happen. As awful as these last three close losses have felt, the Sox haven't lost any ground to the Blue Jays. They look suddenly more vulnerable with injuries to Bichette and Romano, and we play them next. The Wild Card race could easily be dead even in a week.
 

Max Power

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Makes sense on paper somewhat ( though Devers not having a great year he’s not a butcher and Casas needs reps to develop) but concerned that (over)playing Turner in the field might wear down his bat.
This is right. The guy is 38 years old and they're playing him all over the infield (he also hurt his foot last night). Letting him DH a few times a week is going to keep him healthy.

There's no real solution to the defense problem. Casas, Devers, and Yoshida are going to be around for a while. You just have to hope for improvement from them because you're not going to be able to play more than one at DH.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I'd be a no on the Alonso / Casas deal as well. Just like I'd be a "no" on Duran for Soto. In both instances, I firmly agree that Alonso and Soto are the assuredly the superior players, but there you're talking about a two very good young players with 6 seasons of control each (counting this one) for two outstanding players but each of them only have 2 seasons of control left, and I cannot picture the Sox spending what would be required to extend them. Off-season with a negotiated extension (or even today if they were somehow able to get an extension agreed to), absolutely. But without guaranteed extensions, I'd not make those deals.

I don't know if this is true! Takes two to tango of course, but the Giolito and Scherzer were rentals and their returns were pretty hefty, and Paxton theoretically has more suitors because of his cost.

I kind of think something bigger will happen. As awful as these last three close losses have felt, the Sox haven't lost any ground to the Blue Jays. They look suddenly more vulnerable with injuries to Bichette and Romano, and we play them next. The Wild Card race could easily be dead even in a week.

Scherzer isn't / wasn't a rental. The Rangers required that he pick up his option (so he's in Texas this season and next) in order to move LA Acuna. (https://www.mlb.com/news/whats-next-after-max-scherzer-trade-to-rangers#:~:text=The Rangers will pay Scherzer,$36 million of the deal.)

To the bolded, I sincerely hope so, but I also sincerely doubt it.

At this point I'd be pretty happy with adding the functional equivalent of Paul DeJong and Mike Lorenzen (as in a likely more competent MI and something that is a starting pitcher), if nothing else than to convince the team to keep playing until reinforcements arrive / if they don't (Sale, Whitlock).

Though I'm beginning to think it's more and more likely that there aren't really any additions of even the above caliber that will be made. Which if they are not, I'd pivot to selling because I think with prominent players and the manager literally begging for moves in the press, not adding would crush morale as much as selling would.
 
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SouthernBoSox

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I am becoming more convinced in looking at the current team that a defensive upgrade at second with the addition of Story at short is by far the most affective and cheapest way to improve the team this year. I think you'll see them add at second and some cheaper arms.
 

chawson

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I'd be a no on the Alonso / Casas deal as well. Just like I'd be a "no" on Duran for Soto. In both instances, I firmly agree that Alonso is better than Casas and that Soto is much better than Duran, but there you're talking about a two very good young players with 6 seasons of control each (counting this one) for two outstanding players but each of them only have 2 seasons of control left, and I cannot picture the Sox spending what would be required to extend them.




Scherzer isn't / wasn't a rental. The Rangers required that he pick up his option (so he's in Texas this season and next) in order to move LA Acuna. (https://www.mlb.com/news/whats-next-after-max-scherzer-trade-to-rangers#:~:text=The Rangers will pay Scherzer,$36 million of the deal.)

I sincerely hope so, but I really doubt it.

At this point I'd be pretty happy with adding the functional equivalent of Paul DeJong and Mike Lorenzen (as in a likely more competent MI and something that is a starting pitcher), if nothing else to convince the team to keep playing until reinforcements arrive / if they don't (Sale, Whitlock).

Though I'm beginning to think it's more and more likely that there aren't really any additions of even the above caliber that will be made. Which if they are not, I'd pivot to selling because I think not adding would crush morale as much as selling would.
You're right, thanks. Scherzer wasn't a rental. Still a unique situation, his contract is so prohibitive that I'd still say Paxton's a more valuable asset.

Apparently the Phillies are very interested in both Paxton and Duvall...I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox could get quite a haul from DD for those two
If DD is at all willing to trade Mick Abel, I'd be interested to offer what I could to fill in the gap. Not sure what else from their roster or system would make sense though. They're not trading Bryson Stott. We're probably not trading for Justin Crawford.
 

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I am becoming more convinced in looking at the current team that a defensive upgrade at second with the addition of Story at short is by far the most affective and cheapest way to improve the team this year. I think you'll see them add at second and some cheaper arms.
If they're really just focused on a defensive upgrade, couldn't they shift Chang there?