The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

So the Guardians would give up 5 years of a promising young pitcher for 2 months of a guy who should be DFA material? Is this guy aware that Chris Antonetti runs the Cleveland baseball team and not Rachel Phelps?

There can never been "too many" Major League references. Fact, not opinion.

I really hope that Rafaela comes up sooner than later. Agree that Arroyo's defense has been fine at 2b, but his offense - not so much - with a 73 wRC+. It's certainly possible that Rafaela could be worse than that, but I do think 1) there is at least a decent chance he's better and if not 2) I'd still rather get him started on the cycle of adjustments needed to be good at the MLB level sooner than later.

Is there a track record for guys with this bad of a K/BB to not become JD Drew, but at least respectable? Is Javier Baez the ceiling? That would be fine if that's what he turned into, although he seems to be cooked at 30 years old. Elly De La Cruz is another guy who is extremely walk averse, and after his scorching start he's hit 242/262/339 in 15 games in July.

Starling Marte? His first cup of coffee in the majors was a 4.4% to 27.5% BB to K ratio (he still produced a 100 wRC+). The next year he brought that down to 4.4% to 24.4% (122 wRC+) and then 6.1% to 24% (132 wRC+) before settling in around the 5.2% to 19.9% (117 wRC+) averages for his career. That's kind of the player (offensively) I see as a comp for Rafaela if he reaches his realistic ceiling.

 

[Max Power]

There can never been "too many" Major League references. Fact, not opinion.

I really hope that Rafaela comes up sooner than later. Agree that Arroyo's defense has been fine at 2b, but his offense - not so much - with a 73 wRC+. It's certainly possible that Rafaela could be worse than that, but I do think 1) there is at least a decent chance he's better and if not 2) I'd still rather get him started on the cycle of adjustments needed to be good at the MLB level sooner than later.

What do you consider a "decent" chance? Because a guy sporting a 1.4% walk rate in AAA is going to be eaten alive by major league pitching. I'd bet the under on a 73 wRC+ and probably under on 50 if he came up today.

 

[grimshaw]

Starling Marte? His first cup of coffee in the majors was a 4.4% to 27.5% BB to K ratio (he still produced a 100 wRC+). The next year he brought that down to 4.4% to 24.4% (122 wRC+) and then 6.1% to 24% (132 wRC+) before settling in around the 5.2% to 19.9% (117 wRC+) averages for his career. That's kind of the player (offensively) I see as a comp for Rafaela if he reaches his realistic ceiling.

To add -Ceddanne's minor league career is at 4.1%/23.2%. Alfaro's at 4.2/34%, so IMO he'd be closer to him since the k-rate likely wouldn't remain flat at first.

Tim Anderson's at 3.7%/23% (100 wRC+), so if Rafaela got there, I'd be good with it. Getting to Marte would be amazing, but his k and bb % were quite a bit better in the minors, so Ceddanne has a lot of catch up there as well.

Other close comps are Christian Bethancourt, Javier Baez (as mentioned upthread), and then our own guy Adalberto Mondesi.

I'm bearish on his offense though since plate disciple is really tough to develop.

 

[Fishy1]

What do you consider a "decent" chance? Because a guy sporting a 1.4% walk rate in AAA is going to be eaten alive by major league pitching. I'd bet the under on a 73 wRC+ and probably under on 50 if he came up today.

I would add to this two things. For one, Arroyo has also been a guy around a 90 wrc+ for his career and was over 100 the last couple years. This year's performance has been well below his average.

The second thing is that Rafaela's chase rate is concerning but not disqualifying. I actually think Arroyo's bat is kind of a best case scenario outcome for Rafaela. Arroyo is a 4% BB guy, and that's what Rafaela has been. Both have a little pop but can't help chasing. Both of them have maintained relatively low K rates despite their chase rates.

I wouldn't make too much of Rafaela's 73 PA in AAA, he'll probably walk around 4% there too given another 100 PA. The K rate isn't so bad - 20% in AA and 24% in AAA in limited time is tenable. He's only 22 so there's room for improvement.

I don't love either of their bats, but if Rafaela put up a .750 OPS while playing GG defense in the OF we'd be very pleased. I think he can do it. He chases a ton but he also makes hard contact and has good bat-to-ball skills for a guy who chases so much.

I hope they give him more seasoning at AAA, to be clear. He probably won't be much of a difference maker out there right now. I can squint and see playing time for him if they trade Duvall and let him platoon a little with Verdugo and Duran.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

@grimshaw - Anderson is a really good pull. I like that one better than Marte, actually. Admittedly, I was thinking of outfielders for comps.

@Max Power - I was thinking "decent" as in a little bit worse odds than the Sox are to make the post-season (32% on BBRef right now), and probably something like 25% better / 75% worse for Rafaela. But the bigger thing is, with only a (roughly speaking) 1 in 3 chance to make the playoffs as is (using BBRef's percentages) I'd rather get Rafaela started on the adjustment cycle sooner than later.

The way the "core" has performed this year has been fun, but since it really doesn't sound like the Sox are going to make the buys necessary to give themselves a much better chance at making the post-season (not saying if they should or should not, just that it sounds more like moves around the edges, if at all) I'd rather get Rafaela started on the cycle of big league adjustments. Or, put another way, I think exposure for two months against MLB pitching is going to get him better equipped for the 2024 team than another 2 months in AAA and then two months in AAA to start next year and THEN getting his first taste of MLB pitching looks like.

 

[moondog80]

Of course, all of the names mentioned -- Baez, Anderson, Marte, etc. are the ones who worked out, and even they have had spotty careers for the most part (Baez and Anderson seemingly done at 30). Presumably many more just never stuck in MLB. Rafaella does have the glove, which should keep his floor somewhat high. Over the past 6 years, Manuel Margot has had an OPS+ of 92 (254/309/386), good for a WAR of 10.9, or 2.6 per 600 PA. Which, for a cost controlled player at an up the middle position, is pretty valuable, if not all-star level. And Rafaella projects to be a better defender than Margot (I think). So we should do backflips if he can hit 254/309/386, right?

 

[Sin Duda]

Hopefully he walks a little more, keeps hitting solidly enough for a Sep callup (I would have said he could pinch run, but AAA catchers have been throwing him out). If he can be the short end of a CF timeshare and defensive replacement, that would be valuable. And if he has a breakthrough in the next few years, maybe he becomes fulltime. If not, Anthony or Bleis might be walking through that door in '25 or '26.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Of course, all of the names mentioned -- Baez, Anderson, Marte, etc. are the ones who worked out, and even they have had spotty careers for the most part (Baez and Anderson seemingly done at 30). Presumably many more just never stuck in MLB. Rafaella does have the glove, which should keep his floor somewhat high. Over the past 6 years, Manuel Margot has had an OPS+ of 92 (254/309/386), good for a WAR of 10.9, or 2.6 per 600 PA. Which, for a cost controlled player at an up the middle position, is pretty valuable, if not all-star level. And Rafaella projects to be a better defender than Margot (I think). So we should do backflips if he can hit 254/309/386, right?

While not a bad comp at all, as they moved up in level, Rafaela has had much better offensive numbers at similar stops to Margot, generally with a lot better power (his ISO has been considerably better). Rafaela will probably hit for a similar average, take fewer walks but also produce more extra base hits, at least if the slugging numbers follow similar trendlines. A, A+, AA and AAA have been:

Margot:

.287/.355/.449/.803
.294/.331/.450/.781
.271/.326/.419/.745
.297/.349/.411/.759


Rafaela:
.251/.305/.424/.729
.330/.368/.594/.962
.285/.328/.473/.800
.294/.343/.574/.916 (SSS caveat, obviously of only about 15 games)

 

[moondog80]

While not a bad comp at all, Rafaela has always had better numbers at similar stops to Margot, generally with a lot better power (his ISO has been considerably better). A, A+, AA and AAA have been:

Margot:

.287/.355/.449/.803
.294/.331/.450/.781
.271/.326/.419/.745
.297/.349/.411/.759


Rafaela:
.251/.305/.424/.729
.330/.368/.594/.962
.285/.328/.473/.800
.294/.343/.574/.916 (SSS caveat, obviously of only about 15 games)

Yeah, it's not a perfect comp. More of an illustration of how the offensive bar isn't crazy high to be a contributor when you can play good CF.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Yeah, it's not a perfect comp. More of an illustration of how the offensive bar isn't crazy high to be a contributor when you can play good CF.

Or when the guys you'd be replacing have OPS+ scores of 75 (Arroyo), 60 (Hernandez) and 38 (Chang).

 

[Apisith]

Fangraphs has finished its system reports. Red Sox have the 5th ranked system. Orioles are 1st, Rays are 8th, the Yankees are 16th and the Blue Jays are 24th.

I would like to save the chips for a year or two from now when our window will be fully open.

 

[jon abbey]

Fangraphs has finished its system reports. Red Sox have the 5th ranked system. Orioles are 1st, Rays are 8th, the Yankees are 16th and the Blue Jays are 24th.

So, if I understand right, their individual team rankings took so long that they’re a full 2/3 of a season behind? These are essentially team rankings coming into 2023, right?

 

[Apisith]

So, if I understand right, their individual team rankings took so long that they’re a full 2/3 of a season behind? These are essentially team rankings coming into 2023, right?

Yes, I think that's correct. Not sure why it's so delayed this year, last year it wasn't.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

For lack of a better place to put this (if it is better served in the 2023 rotation thread, feel free to move there), but a name I'd really like to see the Sox add (literally today) is Dallas Keuchel.

He is presently pitching on a minor league deal with Minnesota, but has an opt out he can trigger today. He's been linked to the Sox (through whatever passes for SI now, which I believe is basically all fan journalism at this point, so I'm not linking it as who knows how credible it is any longer but do want to give credit).

In AAA he has 4 starts, 20ip. A 0.90ERA (but a 4.38 FIP). More importantly, I can't see him turning down a guaranteed $1m and MLB contract where he's given the chance to start every 5 days, and with the Sox having, I think, about $12m in cap space to play with, the literal only risk would be $1m of FSG's money. Odds are he wouldn't be good (odds are Carrasco, Lynn, etc wouldn't be good), but he'd at least be a "name add" to the rotation that costs no prospect capital and would at least show the clubhouse that the Sox are trying to contend for that last playoff spot.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/?ref=trending-pages

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

We could always give Steve Ontiveros a call.

I’d pass on Keuchel, he’s been terrible for years. Even his AAA numbers seem suspect- 3.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 seem likely to translate into what he’s been like in the majors the last few years- too many walks and homers, too few strikeouts.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

While you're probably right, I mean, we gave Kaleb Ort $550k and he's always sucked. Why not an extra $450k on someone whom at least once was good and is a starting pitcher.

At least this way the Sox wouldn't have to "burn" Murphy and could use him in the bullpen on multiple occasions per week.

 

[jon abbey]

While you're probably right, I mean, we gave Kaleb Ort $550k and he's always sucked. Why not an extra $450k on someone whom at least once was good and is a starting pitcher.

At least this way the Sox wouldn't have to "burn" Murphy and could use him in the bullpen on multiple occasions per week.

Well, his agent presumably called around and no one wanted to add him to their MLB roster, so he is staying in MIN AAA for now.

View: https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1682521983584460806

 

[TheYellowDart5]

So, if I understand right, their individual team rankings took so long that they’re a full 2/3 of a season behind? These are essentially team rankings coming into 2023, right?

Their team reports include in-season looks and scouting; that's a large reason why they've taken a bit to put out, their prospect folks are trying to see as many players in person as possible before writing them up

 

[jon abbey]

Their team reports include in-season looks and scouting

Some of them do, the Yankees' one was published on March 6. I think that they lost one of the writers who normally does it early this year and that's why it took them a while to finish, but really my point was that their farm system rankings are pretty out of date at this point.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1683154055307067393

 

[E5 Yaz]

" ... if he is willing to fit into the kind of niche role the Dodgers are seeking to fill."

That's odd phrasing.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1683154055307067393

Getterdone Theo!!!

 

[dhappy42]

Straight up trade for Noah Syndergard.

 

[Coachster]

" ... if he is willing to fit into the kind of niche role the Dodgers are seeking to fill."

That's odd phrasing.

Yeah, asking him to clean up the clubhouse after games might be a bridge too far.

 

[Mantush]

I've seen a lot of rumors suggesting that the Red Sox want to add another right handed reliever. I'd give some consideration to Scott Barlow as a potential buy-low candidate. His walk rate is up dramatically this year but if that's something you think you can fix, he's a useful piece this year and next. He'll probably still cost more than some other options likely to be available, but there's a 40-man crunch coming at the end of the year so maybe you can move some of those pieces. FWIW, BTV has Paulino (5.6) for Barlow (5.4) as a pretty even swap. If you're hell bent on getting another starter but don't want to give up anything significant, Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers makes sense, but I wouldn't go that route unless one of Whitlock or Houck look like they won't make it back. That'll give you (spoiler so it doesn't elongate the post for no reason):

Spoiler

C Wong
1B Casas
2B Arroyo
3B Devers
SS Story
LF Yoshida
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH Turner

Bench
C McGuire
OF Duvall
OF Refsnyder
IF Kike

Starters
RHP Bello
LHP Paxton
LHP Sale
RHP Houck
RHP Whitlock

Bullpen
RHP Jensen
RHP Martin
RHP Winckowski / Pivetta
RHP Crawford / Pivetta
LHP Rodriguez / Bleier
LHP Bernandino / Bleier
RHP Barlow
RHP Schreiber

...which I think is a decent enough team that'll play competitive baseball into Fall and potentially beyond. Not a worldbeater but decent.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

With Pivetta pitching well, Winckowski bouncing back a bit, and Schreiber on the way back, do they really even need another RH reliever? I am not so sure.

 

[E5 Yaz]

With Pivetta pitching well, Winckowski bouncing back a bit, and Schreiber on the way back, do they really even need another RH reliever? I am not so sure.

According to mlb.com, Schreiber returns tomorrow

 

[TFisNEXT]

Aside from some cheap rentals which make the most sense for the 2023 Red Sox in context of their developing youngsters and good minor league talent, what do we think it might take to grab a guy like Luis Urias from the Brewers?

They sent him down to AAA about a month ago after struggling badly at the plate for 157 PAs in 2023, so maybe there's a chance to buy low here. He's a guy who has solid OBP skills (double digit walk rate) and some pop (typically ISO between .150-.200). He can play a competent 2B defensively....he won't win any gold gloves, but he's not Valdez out there either. He can also play 3B and SS, though they prob don't want too much SS out of him as that is his one position where he is below average. He just turned 26 and for those who follow prospects, he was very highly touted. He is under team control through 2025. He could be a solid addition to the lineup and shore up some middle infield issues and there's some upside there with the bat even beyond 2023....he is young enough for more power to break out.

Only issue is the BrewCrew are gonna want something useful for 2023 since they are currently clinging to a narrow lead in the NL Central. Brewers seem to be in need of bullpen help and outfield outside of Yelich....they've had a ton of injuries to their lineup. Duvall might make sense for them....the Red Sox would obviously need to add a sweetener to just Duvall though. Maybe a mid-level prospect or a bullpen arm?

 

[geoflin]

I've seen a lot of rumors suggesting that the Red Sox want to add another right handed reliever. I'd give some consideration to Scott Barlow as a potential buy-low candidate.

According to Jim Bowden (yeah, I know) in The Athletic today Barlow is not a buy low candidate.
https://theathletic.com/4714015/2023/07/24/mlb-trade-deadline-buyers-sellers-latest/

 

[chawson]

Chad Jennings reports that Bloom said in a radio interview yesterday that he's looking for a lefty-hitting middle infielder

https://theathletic.com/live-blogs/mlb-trade-deadline-2023/Cxs2TSZ0o4pd/PVRxJtndLA8m/

That's quite specific, and suggests that maybe they don't view Valdez as a 2B anymore.

Anyway, there are 44 of those with more than 50 MLB PAs this year (and aren't Valdez). Those on non-contending teams include Nolan Gorman, Nick Maton, Nicky Lopez, Luis Guillorme, CJ Abrams, Zack McKinstry, Ji Hwan Bae, Luis Garcia, Michael Massey, Tony Kemp, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Luis Rengifo, Harold Castro, Tucupita Marcano, Ryan McMahon, Rodolfo Castro and Kolten Wong. But if we're excluding guys who can't handle the position, that group is considerably smaller.

I think one of the Tigers, Zack McKinstry or Nick Maton, would be solid fits here. Each seems like they can play an adequate 2B and is under control through 2027, and Detroit probably only has room for one with Justyn Henry-Malloy nearing promotion, Colt Keith ready soon, and Andy Ibañez having a sort of interesting year.

Each has interesting merits. Both seem to have great plate discipline, solid walk rates. McKinstry's a better contact hitter, athlete and defender. Maton has a terrible .164/.288/.292 line but with a .193 BABIP, and he's actually improved on his BB and K rates over last year, when he put up a 135 wRC+.

FWIW, BTV has McKinstry at $13.5M in surplus value, worth roughly Rafaela, and Maton at 0.6 BTV, worth roughly Chih-Jung Liu. That seems quite off on McKinstry, who the Tigers acquired last winter for a guy who ranks #51 in the Cubs system.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Chad Jennings reports that Bloom said in a radio interview yesterday that he's looking for a lefty-hitting middle infielder

https://theathletic.com/live-blogs/mlb-trade-deadline-2023/Cxs2TSZ0o4pd/PVRxJtndLA8m/

That's quite specific, and suggests that maybe they don't view Valdez as a 2B anymore.

Anyway, there are 44 of those with more than 50 MLB PAs this year (and aren't Valdez). Those on non-contending teams include Nolan Gorman, Nick Maton, Nicky Lopez, Luis Guillorme, CJ Abrams, Zack McKinstry, Ji Hwan Bae, Luis Garcia, Michael Massey, Tony Kemp, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan, Luis Rengifo, Harold Castro, Tucupita Marcano, Ryan McMahon, Rodolfo Castro and Kolten Wong. But if we're excluding guys who can't handle the position, that group is considerably smaller.

I think one of the Tigers, Zack McKinstry or Nick Maton, would be solid fits here. Each seems like they can play an adequate 2B and is under control through 2027, and Detroit probably only has room for one with Justyn Henry-Malloy nearing promotion, Colt Keith ready soon, and Andy Ibañez having a sort of interesting year.

Each has interesting merits. Both seem to have great plate discipline, solid walk rates. McKinstry's a better contact hitter, athlete and defender. Maton has a terrible .164/.288/.292 line but with a .193 BABIP, and he's actually improved on his BB and K rates over last year, when he put up a 135 wRC+.

FWIW, BTV has McKinstry at $13.5M in surplus value, worth roughly Rafaela, and Maton at 0.6 BTV, worth roughly Chih-Jung Liu. That seems quite off on McKinstry, who the Tigers acquired last winter for a guy who ranks #51 in the Cubs system.

I'm surprised he is specifically targeting a lefty seeing how left heavy the lineup already is.

 

[pjheff]

I'm surprised he is specifically targeting a lefty seeing how left heavy the lineup already is.

It appears that he’s planning a platoon solution at 2B.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Aside from some cheap rentals which make the most sense for the 2023 Red Sox in context of their developing youngsters and good minor league talent, what do we think it might take to grab a guy like Luis Urias from the Brewers?

They sent him down to AAA about a month ago after struggling badly at the plate for 157 PAs in 2023, so maybe there's a chance to buy low here. He's a guy who has solid OBP skills (double digit walk rate) and some pop (typically ISO between .150-.200). He can play a competent 2B defensively....he won't win any gold gloves, but he's not Valdez out there either. He can also play 3B and SS, though they prob don't want too much SS out of him as that is his one position where he is below average. He just turned 26 and for those who follow prospects, he was very highly touted. He is under team control through 2025. He could be a solid addition to the lineup and shore up some middle infield issues and there's some upside there with the bat even beyond 2023....he is young enough for more power to break out.

Only issue is the BrewCrew are gonna want something useful for 2023 since they are currently clinging to a narrow lead in the NL Central. Brewers seem to be in need of bullpen help and outfield outside of Yelich....they've had a ton of injuries to their lineup. Duvall might make sense for them....the Red Sox would obviously need to add a sweetener to just Duvall though. Maybe a mid-level prospect or a bullpen arm?

I don't know. The one thing the Sox seem to have in abundance right now is middle infielders on the 40-man roster under team control for the next 2+ seasons (with more in the pipeline). Not saying they're all high quality but Urias seems like more of the same, no? Basically a younger Arroyo with a bit more pop...only he's slumping way more at the moment (OPS+ of 50 and he's currently in AAA). Doesn't seem like a help now guy. He's a maybe helps later if they find the magic elixir to unlock his 2021-2022 self.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

I'm seeing several reports that the Reds are shopping Jonathan India, who is not left-handed. And the Reds probably want young starting pitching in return. He will not be cheap with three more years of team control, but I'm more interested in him than most of the other names being tossed around.

https://blogredmachine.com/posts/reds-rumors-jonathan-india-available-mlb-trade-deadline-starting-pitching

 

[moondog80]

I'm seeing several reports that the Reds are shopping Jonathan India, who is not left-handed. And the Reds probably want young starting pitching in return. He will not be cheap with three more years of team control, but I'm more interested in him than most of the other names being tossed around.

https://blogredmachine.com/posts/reds-rumors-jonathan-india-available-mlb-trade-deadline-starting-pitching

I'd love to have him but with Story already on the roster and Mayer & Yorke in the high minors, paying a premium for a 2B with three+ years of cost control doesn't seem like the best use of resources.

 

[jbupstate]

I'd love to have him but with Story already on the roster and Mayer & Yorke in the high minors, paying a premium for a 2B with three+ years of cost control doesn't seem like the best use of resources.

Is India good enough to move the needle? Not a great offensive or defensive player. Seems like a name brand versus a good player.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'd love to have him but with Story already on the roster and Mayer & Yorke in the high minors, paying a premium for a 2B with three+ years of cost control doesn't seem like the best use of resources.

I agree with all of this and would add that part of the reason India is possibly available is he's not keen on changing positions to accommodate the young talent the Reds are bringing up. He might be in the exact same position here in a year or so. Unless Bloom thinks he can flip him this winter (or next July) for the same or better than he costs now, it's not something that makes a ton of sense.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Is India good enough to move the needle? Not a great offensive or defensive player. Seems like a name brand versus a good player.

He is certainly a big upgrade over what we have out there. We still don't have a real second baseman when Story gets back and plays SS. He's on pace for about a 2 WAR season at 2B.

But I agree with others that the cost for him is probably prohibitively high given there's a solid core of middle infielders not too far from the majors in the Sox farm system. It's not outlandish to think that someone like Jonathan India would have no position to play in Boston by late 2024 if Mayer is MLB ready and Story moves back to 2B.

 

[simplicio]

In 2021 India was quite good offensively and very fast, but pretty bad defensively.

Since 2021 India has been (slightly) below average offensively, not nearly as fast and still pretty bad defensively.

Who exactly is trading young MLB starting pitching for that profile?

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I think the Sox should target a starting pitcher under control for more than this season. I've seen lots of discussion about Dylan Cease, who fits that description (two more years of arbitration). I think these two names should be considered too:

Brady Singer- 3 more years of arbitration, turning 28 next month. Very good 2022, bad start to 2023, has pitched pretty well since an ugly April and May

Patrick Sandoval- very similar, with regard to contract, to Singer: turns 27 in October and has 3 more years of arbitration. Very good 2022, stats are skewed by 3 poor starts in June. Strikeouts are down a bit this year (mostly in the month of May) which would need to be investigated.

 

[Coachster]

You want a left-hand hitting infielder, here you go.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/padres-release-rougned-odor.html

Kidding, kidding.....

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You want a left-hand hitting infielder, here you go.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/padres-release-rougned-odor.html

Kidding, kidding.....

Eh. He hits better with his right hand.

 

[Ronnie_Dobbs]

he's looking for a lefty-hitting middle infielder

Not a left-handed hitting MI (that's how I read it anyway)

 

[chawson]

Does anyone feel more ready to consider trading Verdugo yet? Since May 10th, a span of 239 PAs, he's put up a .700 OPS / 90 wRC+ and a .132 ISO (two home runs).

There's not a surplus of right fielders out there, but that could be a position we may look to improve.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Does anyone feel more ready to consider trading Verdugo yet? Since May 10th, a span of 239 PAs, he's put up a .700 OPS / 90 wRC+ and a .132 ISO (two home runs).

There's not a surplus of right fielders out there, but that could be a position we may look to improve.

In the off-season maybe. I don't see much chance of trading him in the next week and improving the position at the same time. Unless we think Duvall is going to break out and be the guy he was before he broke his wrist. I don't believe that's going to be the case.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Does anyone feel more ready to consider trading Verdugo yet? Since May 10th, a span of 239 PAs, he's put up a .700 OPS / 90 wRC+ and a .132 ISO (two home runs).

There's not a surplus of right fielders out there, but that could be a position we may look to improve.

For me it depends on the same thing it's always depended on - can they extend him at reasonable dollars or not (and I suppose, are they even trying). He's been horrid in July, but his June was still very solid with a .316/.377/.484/.862 line.

If they can (or are) able to extend him, then no, you don't trade him, but I hope they're trying. I think something between what Benintendi got from Chicago and what Reynolds signed for in Pittsburgh is the general target of something that would be fair for the player based on what he provides and for the team based on what he provides.

If he's not willing to take that (or the team isn't willing to go there), I'd advocate trading him highly. But I'd be trying for that kind of deal first.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Does anyone feel more ready to consider trading Verdugo yet? Since May 10th, a span of 239 PAs, he's put up a .700 OPS / 90 wRC+ and a .132 ISO (two home runs).

There's not a surplus of right fielders out there, but that could be a position we may look to improve.

Would have to be a big improvement, because Verdugo's putting up a stellar defensive 2023 in RF (+11 DRS, +16 UZR/150)....he's been slumping recently but still has a 111+ wRC, so that could end up higher if/when he breaks out of it. He's on pace for almost a 4 WAR season. I doubt you're gonna get a better player in return unless it's a pure rental.

 

[chawson]

For me it depends on the same thing it's always depended on - can they extend him at reasonable dollars or not (and I suppose, are they even trying). He's been horrid in July, but his June was still very solid with a .316/.377/.484/.862 line.

If they can (or are) able to extend him, then no, you don't trade him, but I hope they're trying. I think something between what Benintendi got from Chicago and what Reynolds signed for in Pittsburgh is the general target of something that would be fair for the player based on what he provides and for the team based on what he provides.

If he's not willing to take that (or the team isn't willing to go there), I'd advocate trading him highly. But I'd be trying for that kind of deal first.

Benintendi got 5/$75M and Reynolds got 8/$106M. You want to give Verdugo something like 6/$90? I'm a hard pass on that.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

For the record though, yes, that is along the lines of what I'd be thinking is fair for both the player and the team.

But, more to your point, if he passed on that I'd absolutely consider dealing him, because you could quite easily (I think) slide Duran over to RF and not lose much value there and have Rafaela up to play CF, and thus "maximize" his defensive value. (Baseball savant gives Mookie a 72nd % arm, at least this season, which is admittedly all I'm looking up and a 66th% for Duran, so I assume his arm would be ok there - but if someone wants to tell me I'm way off, I'd believe them).

I understand why they won't do that now (trade him) but in a purely theoretical sense, if he wasn't open to that kind of deal I'd certainly have no objections. Though I'd try and give him that manner of deal first.

 

[dhappy42]

For the record though, yes, that is along the lines of what I'd be thinking is fair for both the player and the team.

But, more to your point, if he passed on that I'd absolutely consider dealing him, because you could quite easily (I think) slide Duran over to RF and not lose much value there and have Rafaela up to play CF, and thus "maximize" his defensive value. (Baseball savant gives Mookie a 72nd % arm, at least this season, which is admittedly all I'm looking up and a 66th% for Duran, so I assume his arm would be ok there - but if someone wants to tell me I'm way off, I'd believe them).

I understand why they won't do that now (trade him) but in a purely theoretical sense, if he wasn't open to that kind of deal I'd certainly have no objections. Though I'd try and give him that manner of deal first.

Yes, with Duran’s emergence and Rafaela’s impending promotion to the majors, Verdugo is expendable, if not right now, then this winter.