They won't. Let's keep in mind that all this is just a "prediction" from one former Red Sox now Mets beat writer (presumably) appearing on a Boston radio station. It's not even a rumor of a possibility.
The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
So if they trade for Donovan and he becomes their 2b for the next few years....... What happens with Story and Mayer? I know it's always good to have more good players, but that seems like they're creating a logjam.
St Louis, reportedly, has it's eye's set on pitching. Just for what it's worth, on BTV a deal of Donovan and Flaherty for Yorke, Winckowski, Drohan, Mata and Paulino checks out as a minor overpay in favor of the Red Sox. You'd probably be looking at something around that in terms of value to get Donovan and a pitcher (Montgomery is, at least on BTV, worth a good bit more than Flaherty).
One thing in favor of Edman (other than that he'd be a lot cheaper, because he's not nearly as good) is that he is a switch hitter. Considerably better against LHP than RHP, but for his career his OPS splits are .822 and .695, so even against his weakest side, he's still basically Arroyo with the bat (and much better on his strong side) at least for career averages.
I'd have to assume it would be very costly (as others have mentioned) to land either Donvoan or Gorman, but I'd be pretty on board with acquiring any one of those three.
@BaseballJones - figure maybe they tack a year on to Turner (seems to like it here) but then you don't have a DH. Then when it comes to it, you can always move Donvoan to an OF spot, or cycle guys in at DH to keep everyone fresh among Donovan, Yoshida, Devers, Story and Casas, mixing and matching around whoever is the better defensive SS at the time of Mayer or Story.
Well he’s played 276 innings of error free LF. He has value there and it moves Yoshida to DH.
Agreed. I like Edman, but a lot more of his value is tied to his defense and baserunning.
Donovan reminds me of Zobrist. Very good OBP skills and he can play all over the diamond.
SF needs middle infield help. Perhaps they would like Christian Arroyo back, and would send us a B prospect we could flip to STL as part of a package for one of theirs?
If Bleier does have actual value to another team, that would be a pretty useful move.
View: https://twitter.com/jaketodonnell/status/1685277170086641666
View: https://twitter.com/jaketodonnell/status/1685277170086641666
I'm not sure if there's much the Red Sox can do to add to the team at the deadline. You could try to get a starter and bump Houck and Whitlock to the pen when they come back. But on the offensive side, it's hard to figure out where to upgrade if Story comes back and takes over at short. They've been using Turner at second not because they don't have anyone better to play there, but because they don't want to leave his bat out of the lineup. Getting Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Duvall, and Turner into the lineup every day is hard enough already. Getting another middle infielder to juggle will just make it worse.
Trading Verdugo or Duvall won't really work because they're not much use to a rebuilding team. A contender with a glut at middle infield and a need in the outfield doesn't seem to exist. You're probably looking at trading Duran, who has another 5 years of control. That doesn't seem to make the team any better.
The best way to go may be to ride it out with the relentless lineup already here and just deal with some bad defense when Yoshida's in the field or Turner is anywhere but at first.
Trading Verdugo or Duvall won't really work because they're not much use to a rebuilding team. A contender with a glut at middle infield and a need in the outfield doesn't seem to exist. You're probably looking at trading Duran, who has another 5 years of control. That doesn't seem to make the team any better.
The best way to go may be to ride it out with the relentless lineup already here and just deal with some bad defense when Yoshida's in the field or Turner is anywhere but at first.
Plus the team is already getting four players back without giving anything up at the deadline. Houck, Whitlock, Story and Sale are all positive adds. Arguably Crawford has earned on spot in the rotation, too, so I'm not sure Whitlock and Houck won't be pushed to the bullpen (even though I think they both have the stuff and chops to be starters).
Fortunately for us, Pete Abe is the Globe's anti-Shank. He says despite all the weirdness the Sox should Buy!
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/28/sports/red-sox-should-lean-into-weird-season-buy-before-mlb-trade-deadline/
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1685491170137313280?s=46
Sources: Jordan Montgomery trade talks are gaining momentum, and a deal is becoming increasingly likely.
The Orioles and DBacks are among the clubs that have been engaged with the Cardinals in recent days.
i recall Montgomery being brought up here a few times. But given who we have returning from the IL very soon it did not seem like a top priority
Sources: Jordan Montgomery trade talks are gaining momentum, and a deal is becoming increasingly likely.
The Orioles and DBacks are among the clubs that have been engaged with the Cardinals in recent days.
i recall Montgomery being brought up here a few times. But given who we have returning from the IL very soon it did not seem like a top priority
I'd be very interested in seeing how close to a Scherzer-like deal the Mets would be willing to go for Verlander. Picking up a solid SP and one of the Cardinals MI for 2B would set us up for a solid run. At the All-Star break, I was on team Sell. They've really stepped it up lately and proven we can win agains the best teams (Atlanta).
As nvalvo said above, Verlander is looking pretty rough under the hood. K rate is down, walks are up. He’s getting a lot fewer whiffs (though he’s had more the last couple games against the bad lineups of NYY and CHW).
I don’t know, I wouldn’t turn down a free Verlander. But our equivalent of Luisangel Acuña is Yorke (charitably to Yorke), and I wouldn’t give up that for the right to pay Verlander $60M~ over the next 2 1/3 seasons.
I’m with you on the Cards pitchers though. Even Matz could be useful.
https://theathletic.com/4732064/2023/07/30/red-sox-trade-deadline-difference/?source=user_shared_article
Chad Jennings outlines all of this very well. In summary, don’t expect any rentals that involve significant cost and don’t be surprised if Duvall and Paxton go based on the current market.
Again, this is as fascinating of a position as I can remember at a deadline.
The team is good not great currently.
They have moved the ball forward drastically with a new strong controlled core.
They have legitimate pieces they could sell for real value,
They have legitimate needs that if filled could make them a contender.
Completely and totally fascinating.
Chad Jennings outlines all of this very well. In summary, don’t expect any rentals that involve significant cost and don’t be surprised if Duvall and Paxton go based on the current market.
Again, this is as fascinating of a position as I can remember at a deadline.
The team is good not great currently.
They have moved the ball forward drastically with a new strong controlled core.
They have legitimate pieces they could sell for real value,
They have legitimate needs that if filled could make them a contender.
Completely and totally fascinating.
I'm of the exact opposite mind in this, first because Yorke is the guy I'd be looking to move to maximize his value (think his prospect status exceeds his future with the Sox by a substantial margin at this point) and Verlander would be our best starter immediately even with his somewhat diminished stuff. I'd make that trade every time.
And a 1/43 deal next season gets a lot of your winter shopping done now. Complete no-brainer.
All time great, but he’s 40, with a 3.94 FIP. The potential of paying him close to $80M for 24-25 is not all that appealing to me. Hard pass.
Now, if the Mets pay like $30-$40M? Maybe but I’m still not totally sold.
I'm assuming the Mets subsidize him pretty well a la Scherzer to the Rangers. If so, I'm good with Verlander & cash for Yorke straight up. Even more so if we land one of St Louis' kids.
For me, it would have to be a hell of a lot of cash coming with Verlander to pull that trigger. He's owed just under $58M for the remainder of this year and next, then there's another $35M for 2025 if he triggers his option. If the Mets are paying at least $40M plus a chunk of the option if it kicks in, I could get on board. I don't like the idea of tying up more than $20M in next year's payroll on a 41-year-old Verlander who, while pitching well of late, is showing signs of slowing down.
Justin Verlander +$30M for Yorke? I'd sign off on that. Less than Yorke, even better. $60M for 2.5 years (if he triggers the player option) is doable, imho. I'd happily pay $24M for the missing piece to another championship AND to keep him out of the hands of the Astros.
But will Kate Upton demand the Cy Young that her hubby was robbed of be returned?
This but I have to think that between the pressure to show results as well as that teams who are in ascension aren't typically sellers that the hurdle for dealing their pieces is higher than some of the reporting is suggesting. This club is on the upswing and even the best teams should not take them lightly at this point. It really feels like if you want to err on the side of being too aggressive given where they are in the development cycle. They have enough talent to make some noise in a playoff series.
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If they trade Paxton, they run the risk of losing the locker room. They’re fighting their tails off trying to get to the playoffs and trading a top starter would be a slap in the face.
Agree. Guys like Turner on one year deals playing their asses off. That would be a tough look.
Isn’t the Mets top prospect, Ronny Mauricio, predominantly a 2b? Yorke doesn’t seem like a guy they’d be after anyways.
He’s played 20+ games at SS and LF as well. With Acuna now in the fold and looking like a 2024 ETA, one of those guys will be in the OF. I don’t see them being able to get out of Lindor’s contract, which has like 8/272 remaining.
When suggesting trade scenarios for the Red Sox, SoSH doesn't consider the other team's perspective 137% of the time
Just casting a vote for…. FUCK NO DONT SELL!!!! The farm has depth, they’ll have financial flex…. They’re playing meaningful baseball in a race and actually among the best teams over the past month with top tier talent soon to return! They’ve shown they can beat the competition head to head! I don’t get the Papi’s Mango Salad brainset- other than playing fantasy GM and looking clever.
This team is good…. I’ve already changed my prediction for 84 wins and last WC to 90 wins and 3rd WC. But now I think they’re constructed to win playoff series. Stand Pat!
This team is good…. I’ve already changed my prediction for 84 wins and last WC to 90 wins and 3rd WC. But now I think they’re constructed to win playoff series. Stand Pat!
Duvall, sure, fine. But I worry that selling on Paxton would be prioritizing value over wins. My guess would be a Valdez-level prospect or two for the return, and I’m just not sure that’s worth shipping out one of their best SPs. Maybe they could flip those prospects for someone with more control, but why not just make that trade with players they’ve already got? Unless they have some inside info on Paxton’s health.
I agree with this.
I also have no idea what to expect out of the next couple days.
I think fascinating was a good way to describe it.
Its not my thing it but there are many fans amongst our ranks who enjoy watching prospects develop more than the big club winning. As such, you can never have enough high-end prospects and any blue chipper, regardless of flaws, is too dear a price to pay for players performing at the top level.
To me, given the uncertainty around player development, you almost always take a shot at winning by trading away non-blue-chippers (and maybe some of the more flawed ones) for realized talent. However there are people who never want to deal these players and occasionally they are right.
I don’t disagree with any of this. Given the current returns for rentals though I think your assessment on the return is very much on the low side.
That being said, if you can parlay Paxton into real prospects that can be used in a three team deal to acquire a more controlled starter, it’s something that has to be explored.
If that’s really the kind of return they’d get for Paxton, I don’t think there’s any chance they’ll trade them. They would get at least as much or more value with a qualifying offer. My sense is the only way they trade Paxton is if someone blows them away with an offer. And at that point, you do have to consider it.
Which current returns for rentals are we looking at as comparable to what to expect Paxton is worth? Because I believe the only true rental starting pitcher (someone who's a free agent this winter) that's moved so far is Giolito. Lynn has a team option for next year. Scherzer agreed to exercise his option for next year as part of his deal. So if they yielded good returns, the extra year of control is likely a factor that Paxton can't match.
To follow up E5Yaz I’d posit that Yorke is the player that is both h highly ranked and someone with enough warts that we don’t see him turning into a star down the road.
To be honest, I had seen other positing Yorke to the Mets and didn't do my due diligence in checking who they had in their system.
With Montgomery going to Texas, how wide open are the Cardinals to blowing things up? Closer, starter, heck what's a
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1685755891193167873
@bradfo: Feeling of teams talking to Red Sox is that Sox would have to be blown away if they were to deal Paxton
@bradfo: Feeling of teams talking to Red Sox is that Sox would have to be blown away if they were to deal Paxton
Just for what it's worth, I don't want them to sell either. I agree with the vast majority of your post.
I want them to go out and BUY a starting pitcher with term. I want them to do it for this year's team AND to help the 2024+ window.
If they can't do this, I'd really like the idea of buying a middle infielder (probably 2b), also with term. Huge fan of the ideas of Gorman, Donovan or Edman. (While I like Gorman the best, I think Donovan and his ability to play 2b and the corner OF makes him a better fit). Edman would be more than fine, and probably cost a good bit less.
If they can't do either of options 1 or 2, I'd hope they make some short term acquisitions (lets say "Flaherty and DeJong").
If they are unable to achieve any of those goals, that is when I think they should sell (and I even get that they can't trade Paxton right now because they already are short two SPs and nobody in Worcester or Portland has shown anything to come up at this point, so you can't move them up). But they should try all reasonable avenues to invest in this team first.
